Upcoming Election
Presidential Elections (August 2014)
1- Turkish presidential elections will take place on August 10 (First Round) and August 24 (Second Round). The winner needs to receive over 50 percent of votes to get elected. If no candidate wins a majority in the first round, two candidates receiving most votes will compete in the second round.
2-According to the Turkish constitution, presidential candidates need to be 40 years of age or older, college graduate, qualified to be a member of parliament (but not necessarily a current member). In addition, for an individual to run in the contest, at least 20 members of parliament need to petition on his or her behalf. Given the party structure and discipline in Turkey, it is expected that every major party will nominate a presidential candidate; thus, no more than 4 nominees (even less in the case of a joint candidate) will compete in the elections.
3- It is no secret that Prime Minister Erdogan is interested in becoming the 12th President of Turkey. If he decides to run and gets elected, then the ruling AKP, which still holds the majority in the parliament, will need to select his replacement as the chairman of the party and prime minister. If Mr. Erdogan runs for presidency and loses, he will still keep his current position. There is no constitutional need for Mr. Erdogan to resign his office to run for presidency.
Poll Results
If elections held today (among potential presidential candidates)
| DATE May 5May 5May 2April 29
April 25 Feb 3 Feb 2 |
POLL ORCOPTIMARTUSIVARMETROPOLL
ORC CIHAN GEZICI |
GUL-232423
– 47 29 |
ERDOGAN52243526
51 17 20 |
BASBUG-111616
– – – |
AKSENER–94
– – – |
BAYKAL–3–
– – – |
—3-
7 28 |
BAHCELI—3
– 5 12 |
Parties and nominees (no party has yet declared a nominee)
Who should be the AKP nominee? (among AKP supporters)
| DATE May 5May 2April 29Feb 2 | POLL OPTIMARTUSIVARMAKGEZICI | GUL39331229 | ERDOGAN49587020 | DAVUTOGLU–628 | ARINC-3412 |
Who should be the CHP nominee? (among CHP supporters)
| DATE May 5May 2April 29April 25 | POLL OPTIMARTUSIVARMAKORC | KILICDAROGLU1354713 | BAYKAL6817- | BUYUKERSEN-47- | BASBUG284657 |
Who should be the MHP nominee? (among MHP supporters)
| DATE May 5May 2April 29April 25 | POLL OPTIMARTUSIVARMAKORC | BAHCELI2592031 | AKSENER17363432 | HALACOGLU–14- | VURAL–10- |
Who should succeed Prime Minister Erdogan if he runs and gets elected as president?
| DATEMay 5May 2April 29 | POLL OPTIMARTUSIVARMAK | DAVUTOGLU51219 | GUL153417 | ARINC31916 | KURTULMUS31515 | YILDIRIM–13 |
Past Election Results
2009 Local Elections
| AKP 38.4 | CHP 23.0 | MHP 15.9 | DTP5.7 | OTHER17.0 |
2011 Parliamentary Elections
| AKP49.8 | CHP 25.9 | MHP 13.1 | BDP/IND 6.5 | OTHER14.7 |
2014 Local Elections
| AKP45.2 | CHP 28.8 | MHP 15.2 | BDP/HDP 5.8 | OTHER5.0 |
Maps
By Talha Oz, George Mason University
Click image for larger view
Poll Results
2014 Local Elections (March 30)
| DATE March 27 March 18
March 17
March 12
March 8
March 5
March 5
Feb 14 Feb 12 Feb 11 Feb 7 Feb 6 Feb 4 Feb 4 Feb 3 Feb 2 Feb 1 Jan 31 Jan 28 Jan 27 Jan 16 Jan 10 Jan 8 |
POLL GEZICIANDY-AR
Anonymous
ORC
ANAR
KONDA
Metropoll
GEZICI OPTIMAR DI-EN DENGE ORC AG ANDY-AR CIHAN GEZICI KONSENSUS KONDA GENAR METROPOLL CUMHURIYET DENGE SONAR |
AKP46.240.7
29.7
45.7
46.9
49.4
41.7
37.6 44.8 36.8 48.5 45.0 47.0 43.5 36.4 39.9 41.7 47.7 48.8 43.2 35.5 47.5 42.3 |
CHP27.231.2
33.2
28.3
30.1
21.8
30.9
31.3 29.3 26.4 29.7 29.3 28.0 29.3 28.8 31.3 29.5 28.2 28.0 28.1 26.7 28.9 29.8 |
MHP15.517.2
21.3
16.0
14.3
15.8
16.7
20.6 14.2 18.3 14.1 15.1 14.0 13.6 20.5 19.2 15.4 14.4 13.0 15.0 15.1 12.7 18.7 |
BDP7.16.8
7.6
6.0
5.8
8.3
8.3
7.6 5.6 6.4 5.5 6.2 9.0 6.5 7.4 7.8 6.5 5.9 6.5 9.7 7.6 7.1 5.6 |
OTHER4.04.0
8.2
4.0
2.9
4.7
2.4
2.7 4.9 10.2 1.9 4.4 2.0 5.1 6.9 1.8 6.9 3.7 3.7 4.0 15.1 3.6 3.6 |
Major Cities
Istanbul
| DATE March 18March 18
March 18
March 17
March 12
Feb 13 Feb 11 Feb 10 Jan 24 Jan 17 Jan 9 Jan 3 |
POLL ANDY-ARKONSENSUS
SONAR
Anonymous
GEZICI
DENGE DI-EN MAK SONAR GEZICI KONDA ORC |
LEADING PARTYAKPAKP
AKP
CHP
AKP
AKP AKP AKP CHP AKP AKP AKP |
SPREAD2.23.6
4.7
1.9
6.3
14.0 7.4 7.0 0.3 8.8 17.7 9.1 |
Ankara
| DATE March 19March 18
March 18
March 18
March 17
March 11
Feb 11 Feb 10 Jan 17 Jan 3 |
POLL OPTIMARANDY-AR
KONSENSUS
SONAR
Anonymous
GEZICI
DI-EN MAK GEZICI ORC |
LEADING PARTYCHPCHP
CHP
AKP
CHP
AKP
AKP AKP AKP AKP |
SPREAD0.30.4
1.8
6.3
7.6
5.1
5.8 9.0 7.2 13.4 |
Izmir
| DATE March 18March 18
March 18
Feb 11 Jan 17 Jan 8 |
POLL ANDY-ARKONSENSUS
SONAR
DI-EN GEZICI ORC |
LEADING PARTYCHPCHP
CHP
CHP CHP CHP |
SPREAD19.815.6
19.7
6.1 6.9 5.2 |