Tag: UN

  • Even the UN’s Immunity Has Limits (Lawyer for the victims of Srebrenica)

    Even the UN’s Immunity Has Limits (Lawyer for the victims of Srebrenica)

    Axel Hagedorn, 53, is a German lawyer representing nearly 6,000 relatives of the victims of the 1995 Srebrenica massacre. He spoke with SPIEGEL about a Dutch court’s recent ruling that the Netherlands couldn’t be held accountable for the deaths and his intention to sue at the European level.

    German lawyer Axel Hagedorn (left) walks with a relative of a victim of the Srebrenica massacre outside The Hague.

    SPIEGEL: Last week, the district court in The Hague threw out the claim of the relatives of four Bosnians who were killed by Serbs in the 1995 Srebrenica massacre. In all 8,000 people were killed. Dutch United Nations peacekeeping troops led by Thomas Karremans allowed the Serbs to enter the safe haven, but no one will be held accountable now. Does this mean the case is closed?

    Axel Hagedorn: Quite the contrary. Srebrenica was the largest massacre in Europe since World War II, and it will also enable us to answer the question of whether the United Nations is above all laws. At the end of the day, the UN’s credibility is at stake. The most recent decision dealt solely with the fate of individuals; lawyers from another law firm had brought a case exclusively directed at the Dutch state. The court ruled that the Dutch were not responsible because their soldiers were under the command of the UN. That was an easy call for the judge.

    SPIEGEL: How do you intend to make it harder on them?

    Hagedorn: We represent 6,000 relatives, which means that it involves almost all the massacre’s victims. For this reason, the issue of genocide will be put on the table as well. Above all, we aren’t just suing the Netherlands — we’re also going after the United Nations.

     

    SPIEGEL: The same court brushed you off two months ago. Its main argument was that people can’t bring a case against the UN because it has secured immunity for itself in its own charter.

    Hagedorn: These two verdicts in such a short space of time have made everyone realize that it would be perverse if all those involved were deprived of justice. And they won’t be able to, either, because there is a limit to the UN’s immunity. If the participation of UN soldiers in an act of genocide doesn’t cross this line, then tell me what does.

    SPIEGEL: But the UN has never been prosecuted in court.

    Hagedorn: The UN safeguarded itself with immunity in its 1946 “Convention on Privileges,” but at the same time it also committed itself to establishing its own jurisdiction. Over the last 62 years, it has utterly failed to do so.

     

    SPIEGEL: Do you believe that the UN can be forced to make up for that?

    Hagedorn: We first need to follow through with the legal process at the national level, with an appeal and a review. Then, if necessary, we can go before the European Court of Human Rights. For the judges there, we have a clearly defined question: Does the UN also enjoy absolute immunity in cases of genocide so long as it has failed to establish an alternative legal procedure? We might not win the case in the Netherlands, but we will on the European level.

    Spiegel 09/17/2008

    Interview conducted by Clemens Höges.

  • DEBKA:Russia lines up with Syria, Iran against America and the West

    DEBKA:Russia lines up with Syria, Iran against America and the West

    Summary of DEBKAfile Exclusives in Week Ending Sept. 18, 2008
    Russia lines up with Syria, Iran against America and the West

    Sept 12.: Moscow announced renovation had begun on the Syrian port of Tartus to provide Russia with its first long-term naval base on the Mediterranean.

    As the two naval chiefs talked in Moscow, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov met Iranian foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki in the Russian capital for talks on the completion of the Bushehr nuclear power plant by the end of the year.

    DEBKAfile’s military sources report Russia’s leaders have determined not to declare a Cold War in Europe but to open a second anti-Western front in the Middle East.

    In the second half of August, DEBKA file and DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s analysts focused on this re-orientation (Russia’s Second Front: Iran-Syria), whereby Moscow had decided to use its ties with Tehran and Damascus to challenge the United State and the West in the Middle East as well as the Caucasian, the Black Sea and the Caspian region.

    In aligning with Tehran and Damascus, Moscow stands not only against America but also Israel. This volatile world region is undergoing cataclysmic changes at a time when Israel is without a fully competent prime minister.


    Missile alert is revived on Israel-Gaza border

    12 Sept.: DEBKAfile’s Palestinian sources report that the leaders of the Iranian-backed Jihad Islami terrorist group in Gaza have warned they will go back to firing missiles at neighboring Israeli towns and villages unless the ruling Hamas stops persecuting them.
    Our military sources report that Israeli forces securing the Gaza border went on missile alert Thursday, Sept 11, when Hamas heavies continued their crackdown.

    Hamas gunmen are systematically bulldozing the Jihad bases, built over the ruins of the former Israeli Gush Katif villages, and flattening the sites. They have seized control of Jihad mosques in the southern part of the Gaza Strip and are making arrests.


    Syrian commandos invade 7 Greater Tripoli villages of N. Lebanon
    DEBKAfile Exclusive Report

    13 Sept.: Two Syrian commando battalions accompanied by reconnaissance and engineering corps units have crossed into Lebanon in the last 48 hours and taken up positions in seven villages, most of them Allawite Muslim, outside Tripoli, DEBKAfile’s military sources reported Saturday, Sept. 13. They are the vanguard of a large armored force poised on the border.

    Damascus has signaled to Washington and Paris: Don’t interfere.

    The Syrian incursion coincided with the expected arrival of Russian naval and engineering experts for renovating Tartus, the Syrian port 40 kilometers north of Tripoli, to serve as the Russian fleet’s first permanent Mediterranean base.

    Seen from Israel, once Assad’s army completes its advance on Tripoli, he will control the full length of the military supply route for Hizballah from the Syrian ports of Latakia and Tartus. The Russian presence will add a new and troubling dimension to this development.


    Russia, US pull further apart over Iranian nuclear activities

    13 Sept.: Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said Friday a military solution to the standoff over Iran’s nuclear ambitions is unacceptable and there is no need for new sanctions. At the same time, Washington has imposed new sanctions on Iran, blacklisting a main shipping line and 18 subsidiaries. The US government accuses the maritime carrier of ferrying contraband nuclear material, which Tehran denies.

    Washington sources predict this may be the prelude to more serious actions, such as a naval blockade to choke off Iran’s imports of fuel products.

    Moscow continues to support the European Union’s diplomatic drive to trade incentives for Iran’s consent to curb “some of its nuclear activities.”

    The nuclear watchdog has asked Tehran to account for 50-60 tons of missing uranium from its main enrichment site at Isfahan. It is enough to produce five or six nuclear bombs and is suspected of having been diverted to secret sites to boost the covert production of weapons-grade uranium.


    Terror suspected in Aeroflot crash which killed all 88 people aboard
    DEBKAfile Exclusive Report

    14 Sept.: DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources report from Moscow that three Jewish families, two Habad students and a Russian general were among the 88 passengers and crew killed in the Aeroflot Boeing 737 crash at Perm, Siberia, Saturday, Sept. 13. The plane was in flight from Moscow.

    Russian authorities reported the plane’s sudden disappearance off the radar at the moment cockpit communications shut off. This indicated the craft may have exploded in mid-air. They suspect terrorism as the cause of the crash because –
    1. At least five passengers bought tickets but did not turn up for the flight. Security officials are trying to locate their addresses and sifting through the wreckage for unaccompanied luggage.

    2. One of the passengers has been identified as Gen. Gennadiy Troshev, a Russian hero for quelling the Chechen rebellion.

    3. Our sources name one of the Jewish – or possibly Israeli – families aboard the doomed flight. They have been named as Ephraim Nakhumov, 35, his wife Golda, 24, and their two children, Ilya, aged 7, and Eva, aged four.


    Thirty-four people die in Iraq Monday

    15 Sept.: At least 22 people were killed and 32 wounded by a female suicide bomber who blew herself at a police gathering in Iraq’s Diyala province.

    The guests were attending an Iftar banquet, when Muslims break their fast during the month of Ramadan, in Balad Ruz, 70km (45 miles) north of Baghdad.

    Earlier, two car bombs exploded in central Baghdad, killing 12 people.


    In show of bravado, Iran launches “air defense exercises”

    Iranian official sources report that the air force drill began Monday, Sept. 15, in half of the country’s 30 provinces. They gave out no details of which provinces or how long the exercise would last. The commander of Iran’s aerial defense, Brig. Gen. Ahmed Mighani said that any enemies attacking the Islamic Republic would regret it.

    The exercise was launched on the day the UN nuclear watchdog reported that non-cooperation from Tehran had stalled its efforts to establish whether or not Iran was developing nuclear warheads, enriching uranium for military purposes, testing nuclear explosives or building nuclear-capable missiles.

    Tehran is not deterred by sanctions or tempted by international diplomacy to give up its nuclear aspirations, especially since the Georgia conflict with the United States has presented Iran with Russian backing for its nuclear program and opposition to sanctions.

    Iran’s defense minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar said scornfully Monday: “Threats by the Zionist regime and America against our country are empty” – showing that Tehran feels free to go forward with its nuclear plans.


    Gates arrives in Baghdad unannounced

    15 Sept.: Gates arrived in Baghdad to supervise the handover of the Iraq command from Gen. David Petraeus to Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno. Petraeus moves on to lead the Central Command overseeing Middle East, Afghanistan, Horn of Africa.
     

    France wants more sanctions on Iran for stonewalling UN nuclear probe

    16 Sept.: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report that for lack of Tehran’s cooperation, it has made no progress in establishing whether or not Iran is developing nuclear warheads, enriching uranium for military purposes, testing nuclear explosives or building nuclear-capable missiles..

    Furthermore, despite three rounds of UN Security Council sanctions, Iran has not stopped nuclear enrichment. At present, 4,800 centrifuges are operating and another 2,000 are getting read to start work in the near future.

    DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources report that the Tehran administration shows more contempt than ever before toward the UN, international diplomacy and potential sanctions, certain that the prospect of a US and Israeli military strike on its nuclear facilities recedes further day by day.

    “Threats by the Zionist regime and America against our country are empty,” said defense minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar,”


    Ex-PMs Barak and Netanyahu in secret power-sharing talks
    DEBKAfile Exclusive Report

    16 Sept.: Defense minister Ehud Barak of Labor and opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu of Likud are in advanced negotiations to rotate the premiership between them in order to cut the ground from under Kadima’s winner as leader. The ultra-religious Shas is in on the plan.

    This is reported by DEBKAfile’s political circles.

    Barak’s Labor and Netanyahu’s Likud combined with Eli Yishai’s Shas hold more Knesset seats – 43, than Kadima’s 27. They are in a position to prevent the winner of the Kadima primary from automatically taking over from Olmert as head of the incumbent government coalition. Without Labor, Kadima lacks the numbers to form a viable coalition government.

    DEBKAfile’s sources report that Netanyahu and Barak are close to accord on the general principles of their partnership but are still working on details. Netanyahu would go first up until a general election because Barak, who is not a member of Knesset, cannot become prime minister. Barak believes he can use his pact with Netanyahu to push Kadima’s buttons and at the right moment, take the party over and form a left-of-center Labor-Kadima bloc to fight his current partner, head of the right-of-center Likud.


    North Korea conducts long-range missile engine ignition test

    17 Sept.: The test at the new Tongchang-ri site was detected by the U.S. KH-12 spy satellite. The base is located 50 kilometers (30 miles) from the North Korean border with China,

    At least 11 killed in bloody Hamas crackdown on Doghmush clan militia in Gaza

    16 Sept.: The dead included Momtaz Doghmush, head of Army of Islam and co-kidnapper with Hamas of Gilead Shalit, and in infant. Hamas battled the militia for five hours with mortar fire on its base at the Sabra district of Gaza City, losing one of its gunmen.

    Sixteen killed in al Qaeda attack on US embassy in Yemen

    17 Sept.: Eight Yemeni soldiers, six assailants and 2 civilians were killed in an al Qaeda suicide car bombing, RPG rocket and shooting attack on the US embassy in Sanaa, Wednesday, Sept. 17. No embassy staff members were harmed in the five explosions reported by a US official.

    DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources disclose that Yemeni president Abdullah Salah, formerly a US partner in the war on terror, recently began working with al Qaeda to win their help for quelling plots by army dissidents to overthrow his regime and for beating back an Iran-backed Shiite rebellion.

    In March, al Qaeda mounted a mortar attack which missed the US embassy but injured 13 girls at a nearby school; other attacks targeted the Italian mission and Western tourists. Non-essential US staff were ordered to leave Yemen in April.


    CIA chief: Al Qaeda greatest security threat to US

    17 Sept.: Speaking in Los Angeles, CIA director Michael Hayden said Osama bin Laden has said repeatedly that he considers acquisition of nuclear weapons a religious duty and he intends to attack America “in ways that inflict maximum death and destruction.”

    North Korea and Iran were also threats. Hayden confirmed that the nuclear reactor Israel destroyed in Syria last year was similar to one in North Korea. Iran, he, has the scientific, technical and industrial capacity to produce nuclear weapons.

    DEBKAfile notes: This comment contradicts the US intelligence assessment last year that Iran had discontinued its military nuclear program in 2003.
    Tuesday, diplomats said that the UN watchdog had intelligence showing Iran had tried to refit a long-distance Shehab missile to carry a nuclear payload.


    Israeli banks hammered on Tel Aviv stock exchange

    17 Sept.: In Tel Aviv, prices plunged across the board, with the major banks taking an extra beating. The public voted no-confidence in the leading banks (Bank Hapoalim plunged 12.5 percent) and disregarded the finance minister, Ronnie Bar-On’s assurances that the Israeli economy is insulated from the global crisis.

    After meeting bank heads Wednesday, Bank of Israel governor Stanley Fischer issued a statement that Israel banks are “relatively well run.”

    Economic experts foresee an Israeli recession around the corner. Lehman Brothers is a major player in Israel’s structured-products market and options market. Personal savings schemes, exports to the United States and Europe and foreign investment are also susceptible.

    As foreigners employed on Wall Street, Israelis are second only to Canadians.

    Thousands have been thrown on the job market. Aside from those recalled by Lehman Brothers after the Barclays buyout, many will return home adding to the pressures on the job market. Israel’s hi-tech industry, second only to the US in annual start-ups, was already facing difficulties before the current crisis, as export orders began drying up.


    After her narrow win, Livni’s ability to form government in doubt
    DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis

    18 Sept.: Foreign minister Tzipi Livni scraped through to victory in the Kadima party’s first leadership primary Wednesday, Sept. 17.although her win was challenged by transport Shaul Mofaz, one percent behind her (43 to his 42 percent). Early Thursday, Mofaz finally called Livni to congratulate her. Later, he announced he was quitting politics, including the party and government.

    The real results differed dramatically from the three TV exit polls which wrongly awarded Livni a landslide victory and were up to 10 percent wide of the mark. Throughout the campaign the foreign minister was a media favorite and inaccurately described as unchallenged successor to Ehud Olmert both as party chair and prime minister.
    Kadima comes out of the primary bitterly divided.. Livni faces the daunting dual challenges of uniting the party and persuading all the government coalition parties to accept her as prime minister.
    Kadima’s two senior partners, Labor and Shas, are already looking at alternatives.

    The low Kadima turnout, according to DEBKAfile’s political analysts, was a public vote of non-confidence in the party. At the Tel Aviv stock exchange Wednesday, another popular vote of no confidence took place – this one against the economic system ruled by Kadima ministers and the banks




  • OSC: Russia- Iran Alliance?

    OSC: Russia- Iran Alliance?

    Informed Comment

    Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

     Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

     

    Saturday, August 30, 2008

    The USG Open Source Center translates an article from the Russian press proposing a strategic alliance between Russia and Iran.

    Pundit on Possible Russia-Iran Alliance To Counter ‘Unfriendly’ US Moves
    Article by Radzhab Safarov, General Director of the Russian Center for Iranian Studies: “Iranian Trump Card. Russia Can Take Control of Persian Gulf”
    Vremya Novostey
    Friday, August 29, 2008
    Document Type: OSC Translated Text

    The recognition of South Ossetia’s and Abkhazia’s independence by Russia is a timely step to protect these republics from new Georgian aggression. However, taking into account the United States’ plans to expedite Georgia’s and Ukraine’s accession to the NATO military-political bloc, the situation near the Russian border remains alarming. At the same time Moscow has a lot of possibilities to take balanced counter measures to the United States’ and entire NATO’s unfriendly plans. In particular, Russia can rely on those countries that effectively oppose the United States’ and their satellites’ expansion. Only collective efforts can help to create a situation which would, if not eliminate then at least reduce the risk of the Cold War’s transformation into local and global conflicts.

    For instance, Moscow could strengthen its military-technical ties with Syria and launch negotiations on the reestablishment of its military presence in Cuba. However, the most serious step which the United States and especially Israel fear (incidentally, Israel supplied arms to Georgia) is hypothetical revision of Russia’s foreign policy with regard to Iran. A strategic alliance presuming the signing of a new large-scale military political treaty with Iran could change the entire geopolitical picture of the contemporary world.

    New allied relations may result in the deployment of at least two military bases in strategic regions of Iran. One military base could be deployed in the north of the country in the Iranian province of Eastern Azerbaijan and the other one in the south, on the Island of Qeshm in the Persian Gulf. Due to the base in Iran’s Eastern Azerbaijan Russia would be able to monitor military activities in the Republic of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey and share this information with Iran.

    The deployment of a military base on the Island of Qeshm would allow Russia to monitor the United States’ and NATO’s activities in the Persian Gulf zone, Iraq and other Arab states. With the help of special equipment Russia could effectively monitor whois sailing toward this sea bottleneck, from where, and with what cargo on board to enter the World Ocean or to return.

    For the first time ever Russia will have a possibility to stop suspicious vessels and ships and inspect their cargo, which the Americans have been cynically doing in that zone for many decades. In exchange for the deployment of its military bases Russia could help the Iranians to deploy modern air defense and missile defense systems along the perimeter of its borders. Tehran, for instance, needs Russia’s modern S-400 SAMs.

    The Iranian leadership paid close attention to reports stating that the Georgian Government’s secret resolution gave the United States and Israel a carte blanche to use Georgian territory and local military bases for delivering missile and bomb strikes against Iranian facilities in the event of need. Another neighbor, Turkey, is not only a NATO member, but also a powerful regional opponent and economic rival of Iran. In addition to this, the Republic of Azerbaijan has become the West’s key partner on the issue of transportation of Caspian energy resources to world markets. The Iranians are also concerned at Baku’s plans to give Western (above all American) capital access to the so-called Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea, which is fraught with new conflicts, because the legal status of the Caspian Sea has not been defined to date.

    Russia and Iran can also accelerate the process of setting up a cartel of leading gas producers, which journalists have already dubbed the “gas OPEC.” Russia and Iran occupy first and second place in the world respectively in terms of natural gas reserves. They jointly possess more than 60 percent of the world’s gas deposits. Therefore, even small coordination in the elaboration of a single pricing policy may force one-half of the world, at least virtually entire Europe, to moderate its ambitions and treat gas exporters in a friendlier manner.

    While moving toward allied relations, Russia can develop cooperation with Iran in virtually all areas, including nuclear power engineering. Russia can earn tens of billions of dollars on the construction of nuclear power plants in Iran alone. Tehran can receive not only economic, but also political support from Russia in the development of its own atomic energy sector.

    In addition to this,in view of the imminent breakup of the CIS from which Georgia already pulled out, Russia could accelerate the process of accepting Iran as an equal member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). By accepting Iran, one of the key countries of the Islamic world, the organization could change fundamentally both in terms of its potential and in terms of its regional role. Meanwhile, as an SCO member Iran will find itself under the collective umbrella of this organization, including under the protection of such nuclear states as Russia and China. This will lay foundations for a powerful Russia-Iran-China axis,which the United States and its allies fear so much.

    (Description of Source: Moscow Vremya Novostey in Russian — Liberal, small-circulation paper that sometimes criticizes the government)

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  • Why the European Union strengthens Turkish secularism

    Why the European Union strengthens Turkish secularism

    Kalypso Nicolaïdis
    Hakan Altinay
     
    Many Turkish secularists are becoming ever more critical of the European Union. They should think again, say a group of prominent intellectuals led by Hakan Altinay & Kalypso Nicolaidis: for there are seven ways in which Europe can still be an agent of Turkey’s secularist progress.

     

    The question of whether European Union officialdom has taken sides in the ongoing clash between “secularists” and “Islamists” in Turkey is of profound current concern. Many in the first camp seem to believe so, citing as evidence the way that one EU representative after another dismissed the grounds of the indictment denouncing Turkey’s ruling Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi (Justice & Development Party / AKP) as the “focal point for anti-secular activities.” Europe seems to have become, according to some of these secularists, the great co-conspirator in Turkey against secularism – the very European value the founders of the Republic sought so passionately to affirm.

     

    Indeed, the EU has not found a productive body-language when engaging with those Turks who attach exceptional value to secularism. Many secularists suspect that the post-9/11 west is eager to appease radicalism in the Islamic world, and therefore lowers its standards for a friendly but Islamist partner. The EU’s talk about democracy and the rule of law rings hollow to some of those “on the ground”: what EU politicians really mean, they fear, is that an Islamic democracy is good enough for Turkey. How condescending!

    The secularist critique of the European Union approach continues by arguing that Euro-talk of tolerance is all very well in relation to European societies where the relationship between the state and the dominant (Christian) religion has been secularised for one or two centuries and where Islam and the specific issues it raises are contained in small minorities. In such settings, say the secularists, to be relaxed about women wearing headscarfs (for example) may be an affordable luxury – but in Turkey, giving in on this issue amounts to giving up on secularism altogether.

    The effect of this trenchant case is that there is now the risk of a divorce in Turkey between the once-western elite and the European project. This is regrettable – for those Turks who care deeply about secularism are critical stakeholders in Turkey, and something remains missing as long as they are not included in the European Union convergence process.

    This is not just the EU’s fault. Turkish secularists – allowing for a degree of generalisation to make a larger point – have become rather reclusive. They shy away from European forums. In their increasingly rare contacts with senior Europeans, they have a tendency to hold their counterparts elsewhere responsible for most of the ills in the world, and prefer to lecture rather than to engage with them. Some of their tactics also leave much to be desired: for example, they failed to condemn the Turkish military’s “e-ultimatum” in April 2007, possibly because they have come to believe that democratic principles can give way to their secular ideals. They also have a tendency to seek the most dramatic responses even to mild pressures.

    In turn, the allergic reaction by the Europeans to the choice of tactics by the secularists gets in the way of a productive exchange about the real substance of the latter’s concerns. The European Union (and especially European social democrats, who are so much the secularists’ natural allies) need to find a way to decouple the tactics currently pursued by some Turkish secularists (many of which are unsavoury) and their concerns (many of which are legitimate).

    When stakes and emotions are high, it helps to get back to basics. It could be argued that the normal apparatus of the EU itself – that is EU laws and EU institutions – has little to do with managing secularism in individual states, whether members or candidates. The choices made within individual countries regarding morality and the organisation of state-society relations are – in the spirit of subsidiarity – the product of complex historical patterns, and best left to each polity. At the same time, the EU is also simply a sum of states and peoples who interact in all sorts of ways, while each (like Turkey) is struggling to reinvent the social contract that binds its citizens, including on the role of religion in their public space.

     

    Paths of progress

    It is in this latter sense that the European Union is most relevant to Turkish debates. If both sides can manage to see past political rhetoric and engage on substance, there emerge seven vital ways in which the European Union would ultimately strengthen secularism in Turkey:

    1. Modernisation Few doubt that modernisation helps sustain secularism. The progressive integration of Turkey into the European Union would mean a deepening of Turkish modernisation. The Turkish economy will inevitably be further rationalised, and deliver increasing prosperity; there is a time-tested 1% annual catch-up between old member-states and new ones. Spain’s convergence with the European median income is a solid testimony to this effect.

    Turkish universities are already integrating into the European space through the Erasmus and other (for example the Framework 6-7) programmes. Such developments in turn will deepen what is referred to as “social differentiation”, including through a greater role for professionals. These are all ingredients of a transformation of the kind mapped by the great German sociologist Max Weber, which has social secularisation at its core.

    2. Socialisation The European Union creates socialisation across countries and societies through numerous governmental, administrative, and business- cooperation networks, as well as transnational consultation and decision mechanisms. The civil societies of its different countries increasingly come into contact – in the form of students, trades unionists or NGOs, for example. The more these individuals become linked to several overlapping and layered communities, the less they are bound to their local religious authority.

    Increased “life-chances” through multiple belongings tend to free people from traditional conceptions of life. Greece’s once-insular and tradition-bound culture was slowly transformed through waves of Greeks participating in European networks. The progressive integration of Turkey into European socio-political processes will inevitably change its political culture – away from any Islamist instinct.

    3. Women The status of women is clearly at the heart of the secular vision. To be sure, modernisation’s call for the remapping of private-public boundaries is meant to release women from the yoke of tradition, including religion. It is not clear, however, that top-down state feminism can be relied on to do all the work here. The key remains equality of access to the workplace.

    The European Union’s “Lisbon strategy” – referring here to the union’s economic plans, not its constitutional document – demands 60% female employment, with a vast majority of these women working in industry and services. The growth of female participation in the labour-force will have secularising effects through socialisation. Women, once provided with these opportunities, are unlikely to accept any intrusive controls over their choices – whether from Brussels, from their own state or from the internal restrictions imposed by male-dominated religious authorities.

    4. Anti-discrimination Secularists are concerned about creeping Islamisation through the state’s own highly effective power of patronage. To counter this, the European Union has multiple anti-discrimination standards, some of which put the onus of demonstrating non-discrimination on public authorities at the local, national and European levels. There is also an ombudsman office at the EU level who intervenes after receiving complaints of discrimination from individual citizens. A comparable office – resembling a “secularism ombudsman”, a proposal already offered by Turkish political scientists and Olli Rehn, the EU’s enlargement commissioner – could provide effective recourse.

    5. Competition Secularists have expressed concern about the creation of pro-government business circles through the selective granting of contracts and licenses. European Union rules on public procurement and state aid can provide effective safeguards in this area. Anti-competitive behaviour on the part of EU governments is punished through requirement to reverse awards or contracts as well as through fines. The EU also has time-tested rules on independent authorities and distribution of licenses and public concessions, which create far larger rents in today’s economy.
    Among the many articles in openDemocracy‘s “The future of Turkey” debate:

    6. Trans-european politics The European Union does not override the specificities attached to domestic politics; but it is giving rise to a new kind of trans-European politics by connecting the public spheres of its member- states. The national political parties of these member-states create transnational alliances and campaign together for the European parliament, negotiate common platforms and sharing ideas. For Turkey, this would mean inter alia the integration of the AKP or other centre-right parties into the conservative Christian-democratic culture which (with many variants) has internalised the core tenets of secularism.

    7. The “democratic core” The various European Union treaties since 1997 include a mechanism for multilateral democratic surveillance to prevent authoritarian “drift” within a member-state. This approach was informally introduced on the occasion of the formation of an Austrian government coalition that included Jörg Haider’s Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (Freedom Party of Austria / FPÖ). The use of sanctions, while controversial, was “constitutionalised” with the Nice treaty in 2000. It would thus not be far-fetched to argue that if an Islamist government of an Iranian type did come to power in Turkey, it would incur a treatment worse than Haider; assuming that Turkey is ever-more integrated into Europe, the costs would be prohibitive.

    More generally, the EU can be thought of as a complex check-and-balance machine, bent on constraining movement towards the “tyranny of the majority” both at the EU level (where small states have a disproportional voice, and decisions are never taken by a simple majority of the population) and within its member-states.

    These seven points reinforce the case that convergence and integration with the European Union is clearly a plus for the future of secularism in Turkey. There are two caveats, however.

    Convergence without accession?

    First, even if most secularists in Turkey do accept these arguments, and do believe in the modernising promise emanating from the EU, the sceptics can still say with some justice that the manner in which EU integration would strengthen secularism in Turkey is made uncertain by the fact that the prospect of Turkey’s actual accession to the EU recedes by the day. Indeed, they say, the likely result in Turkey is the worst of all worlds: paying the price of convergence by opening the (liberal) gates to conservative influences in the country, without acquiring the protective effects of EU membership down the road.

    It is certainly true that the failure of the twenty-six other heads of state and/or government to reprimand the French government’s discourse on Turkish membership raises doubts about whether pacta sunt servanda means anything in contemporary Europe. The EU has always maintained a tricky balance between grand vision and petty politicking, and the former is now in short supply; but this is bound to change as Turkey continues to converge with EU member-states, even prior to accession.

    In the meantime, Turkey and Turkish secularists have friends – and many more potential friends – in Europe. Moreover, they should stop listening only to, and publicising the words of, their EU enemies. If they really want EU membership, they need to engage with their friends and work towards this goal, instead of resigning prematurely. A European liberal democracy with all the safeguards; a growing economy; European-standard universities; and women’s participation in public life – all this is sure to consolidate secularism in Turkey better than any authoritarian option.

    Liberalism vs secularism?

    The second and more difficult caveat to this European Union/stronger-secularism equation involves a return to first principles. A convergence to European secularism today requires engaging with a new phase of modernity with political (as opposed to economic) liberalism at its core. Indeed, secularism is a highly contested and amorphous notion, and not only in Turkey – many countries, France and Britain among them, are seized by regular convulsions onver the issue.

    Turkey is thus not alone – and our debates must debate each other. In trying to agree on its contours, all European peoples are painfully exploring the various ways they might reconcile the requirement of social integration with the radical pluralism of their societies. Whether in the Netherlands, Britain, France or Austria, secularism is increasingly embedded in liberal imperatives: to commit to the belief that the primary purpose of liberal society is to free its citizens from the fears that have characterised so much of state-society relations up to date, and to empower the autonomy of the individual against the state and the society. The productive thing to do for Turkish secularists would be to join this debate.

    But how should the assertion at the core of the secular principle be judged – namely, that the state (especially governmental practices or institutions) should exist separately from religion or religious belief? Does this mean that public servants should be banned themselves from displaying their religious belonging; does it encompass such display by anyone in the public space in general; and if the latter, does the injunction concern only minors or also freely consenting adults?

    The rest of Europe considers that outlawing a headscarf worn by an adult is simply outside the range of secularist injunctions if the adult is a consumer of public services (such as education); if she is a provider of such services however, the debate is alive and well. Europeans know all about the clash between tolerance for religious beliefs and tolerance for difference tout court.

    Liberalism does not necessarily have a good press among the secular Turkish elite who believe that Turkey would not even be close to EU membership if it had not been for the uncompromising zeal of the young Turks who built the country’s secular pillars on the ashes of the Ottoman empire. Nevertheless, Turkey does not stand outside the liberalism-and-secularism debates that have engulfed the rest of Europe. Turkish seculars have to confront the fact that in 21st-century Europe, those passionately attached to both secular and liberal principles usually argue that when it comes to adults (a crucial reservation), free choice is a more likely path to women’s liberation than a politics of enforced dress.

    A question of recognition

    In this whole debate, the greatest challenge may be that of true mutual recognition. If the divide in Turkey is between Muslims (pious and secular), what does this mean for Turkey’s engagement with the many Europeans who espouse an ideological brand of secularism, which is not about procedures and rules but about the promotion of an atheist belief-system and the creation of the societal conditions for the spread of such beliefs?

    It may not be sustainable to maintain a schizophrenic attitude to the encounter with “the European” – the common idea (in Turkey as well as elsewhere) that the material civilisation of Europe is there for the taking but not the spiritual (including its tolerance for blasphemy). Indeed, both the contemporary anxieties around aggressive secularism and the revival of religion as a global phenomenon must be acknowledged.

    It is within Europe that Turkey is best placed to navigate a middle-ground between the two, and demonstrate its capacity to reinvent a brand of secularism that is sustainable in the 21st century. In the end, as we and countless others have repeatedly argued, the success of the European political project and further reforms in Turkey are intimately linked. We invite the Turks and other Europeans to genuinely care for each other’s respective core concerns, desires and historical perspectives, especially when what is at stake is our capacity to share in the reinvention of our societies in a spirit of profound mutual understanding.

    This document is endorsed by the following:

    Hakan Altinay, Open Society Institute, Istanbul

    Jean-Francois Bayard, CERI, Paris

    Ivan Krastev, Centre for Liberal Strategies, Sofia

    Kalypso Nicolaidis, Oxford University, Oxford

    Nathalie Tocci, Instituto Affari Internazionali, Rome

    Jose Ignacio Torreblanca, ECFR, Madrid

    Raimo Vayrynen, Finnish Institute of International Affairs, Helsinki

     

    Fred Halliday, “Turkey and the hypocrisies of Europe” (16 December 2004)

    Murat Belge, “The trials of free speech in Turkey” (6 February 2006)

    Daria Vaisman, “Turkey’s restriction, Europe’s problem” (29 September 2006)

    John Palmer, “A commonwealth for Europe” (11 October 2006)

    Fadi Hakura, “Europe and Turkey: sour romance or rugby match?” (13 November 2006)

    Katinka Barysch, “Turkey and the European Union: don’t despair” (27 November 2006)

    Hratch Tchilingirian, “Hrant Dink and Armenians in Turkey” (23 February 2007)

    Gunes Murat Tezcur, “Turkey divided: politics, faith and democracy” (4 May 2007)

    Taner Akcam, “Turkey and history: shoot the messenger” (16 August 2007)

    Soner Cagaptay, “Turkey and the Kurds: everybody’s problem” (5 November 2007)

    Gunes Murat Tezcur, “Turkey after Hrant Dink” (18 January 2008)

    Hasan Turunc, ” Turkey and the Kurds: politics and military action” (27 February 2008)

    Mustafa Akyol, ” Turkey’s ‘Islamic reform’: roots and reality” (4 March 2008)

    Katinka Barysch, ” Turkey: the constitutional frontline” (14 April 2008)

    Cem Özdemir, ” Turkey’s clash of values: memo to Europe” (29 April 2008)

    Bill Park, ” Ergenekon: Turkey’s ‘deep state’ in the light” (7 August 2008)

  • TURKEY’S DELICATE ACT OF BALANCING IN THE BLACK SEA

    TURKEY’S DELICATE ACT OF BALANCING IN THE BLACK SEA

    EURASIA DAILY MONITOR, THE JAMESTWON FOUNDATION
    August 27, 2008, Volume 5, Issue 164
    Saban KardasThe aftershocks of the conflict in Georgia continue to dominate regional politics, highlighting the difficulties Turkey encounters in conducting its foreign policy in dangerous neighborhoods.

    The latest U.S. move to utilize military vessels to provide humanitarian aid to the war-torn areas of Georgia demonstrated starkly how Turkey has been forced to engage in a delicate act of balancing to preserve its interests. By maintaining strict adherence to the 1936 Montreux Convention regulating the rules of transit through Turkish straits, Turkey had a powerful legal backing for its cautious policy of balancing the demands of its long-term ally, the United States, and its increasingly assertive neighbor, Russia. Turkish policy experts, however, believe that an escalation of tensions, forcing Turkey to choose sides, is quite likely. Moreover, Turkey should be prepared to discuss the revision of Montreux, which it has jealously guarded.

    The U.S. State Department announced on August 20 that the United States obtained Turkey’s approval for the passage of two U.S. Navy destroyers and one Coast Guard cutter to the Black Sea, which would transport humanitarian aid, subject to Montreux regulations. The week preceding this announcement was full of speculation concerning U.S. demands from Turkey for the passage of larger ships, to which Turkey responded negatively because their tonnage well exceeded the limitations set by Montreux. Despite denials by both parties of any pending negotiations, it was later understood that the American side dropped its original plan for sending two large military hospital ships and agreed for smaller ships in compliance with Montreux terms. Moreover, although Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matt Bryza said the United States wanted to use military cargo ships (Zaman, August 21), the shipment was eventually made by destroyers. The episode led many to draw parallels with the notorious March 1, 2003, decision of the Turkish Parliament, indicating a crisis between the two allies. News reports claimed that U.S. pressed for requests in violation of Montreux provisions, and that American officials criticized Turkey’s “irresponsible” resistance to such simple demands. In Turkey, opposition parties called on the government not to bow to these pressures nor deviate from Montreux Convention (Referans, August 20).

    The ability to reach a compromise without escalating this situation was a significant reflection of the maturity of both parties. It was, nonetheless, unclear whether the United States fully complied with the Montreux, which requires an eight-day advance notification from non-littoral countries before sending their warships through the Straits. Since U.S. and Turkish officials denied such a request until August 19, the State Department’s announcement of ‘Turkey’s approval’ on August 20 seemed dubious (Radikal, August 21). As a matter of fact, Montreux does not require the same condition for humanitarian aid, which is, however, subject to different tonnage limitations. Given that the supplies are carried with military vessels, the controversy still remains. The Deputy Chair of Republican People’s Party, Onur Oymen, who is a retired senior diplomat, initiated a parliamentary inquiry asking Foreign Minister Ali Babacan to clarify exactly what provisions of the Montreux applied to these ships (ANKA, August 22). The Prime Minister Erdogan slammed the opposition and the media for their ignorance but did not address these criticisms (Anatolian Agency, August 23).

    The U.S.S. destroyer McFaul eventually arrived at Batumi port on August 24, carrying the first shipment of humanitarian relief supplies. The implications of this development for Turkey remain a matter of contention. Russian diplomats in Ankara seem to be pleased with Turkey’s sensitivity in enforcing compliance with Montreux and are keen on preserving the status quo (Murat Yetkin, Radikal, August 26). However, they question the authenticity of U.S. claims for providing humanitarian aid, and believe that it will increase tensions and undermine the stability. If the intention was genuine, the U.S. should not have insisted on carrying aid by military ships; civilian vessels or other transportation means would have served the same purpose (Radikal, August 23). The same argument is shared by many Turkish analysts who increasingly view American policy as a mere show of strength in the Black Sea as part of a growing confrontation, or a new ‘Cold War’ of sorts (for instance: Fikret Bila, Milliyet, August 24; also see reference to Onur Oymen).

    Further increasing Turkish observers’ skepticism, coincidentally, Spanish, German and Polish warships also transited the Straits around the same time. The Turkish Foreign Ministry clarified the situation by announcing that they were part of Standing NATO Maritime Group 1 and their activities were scheduled for transit through the Straits in October 2007. They will be visiting ports in NATO members Bulgaria and Romania (August 22, www.mfa.gov.tr). Nonetheless, many see the two developments intertwined and believe that the escalation between the United States and Russia already started. Moscow’s decision to recognize the independence of the two breakaway regions of Georgia and Medvedev’s announcement of severing ties with NATO are viewed as reactions to U.S. policies (Zaman, August 26). Strategist Sinan Ogan drew attention to increased risks generated by the presence of NATO warships in the Black Sea: an accidental exchange between U.S. and Russian ships may spark a fight between the two powers, destabilizing the whole region. Fearing that the U.S. expression of support through this move may lead Georgia to act more belligerently, and underlining that Turkey is the only neutral country bordering the Black Sea, he calls on Ankara to maintain its neutral position and avoid confrontation with Russia (Zaman, August 27). Sharing similar concerns, the opposition RPP invited the PM to report to Parliament as to who assumed the political responsibility for the risks involved in this decision (ANKA, August 23).

    Although the United States did not express any intention of pressing for a revision to the terms of Montreux, Turkish analysts increasingly see such a forthcoming possibility. Veteran commentators maintain their commitment to preserving the Montreux in its current form, both as the best guarantee of Turkey’s sovereignty over the Straits and as a geopolitical asset (Hasan Celal Guzel, Radikal, August 26). Nonetheless, Turkish analysts sense a persistent U.S. determination to revise the Montreux regime (Oktay Eksi, Hurriyet, August 22). A senior expert from Ankara-based think-tank ASAM, Hasan Kanbolat sparked a discussion on the subject. He argues that given drastic changes in naval technology, U.S. strategy to establish a presence in the Black Sea, and Romania and Bulgaria’s decision to join NATO, Ankara should be prepared to receive such demands from the United States to amend the Montreux in the foreseeable future (www.avsam.org.tr, August 20). Mensur Akgun, however, believes that such a demand is more likely to come from Black Sea littoral states, other than Russia. As these countries increasingly have adopted pro-Western policies and drifted away from Russia, they tend to view the Montreux regime as the major barrier before their security (Referans, August 23). As signatories to the convention, they may initiate such a process. Overall, despite many of its shortcomings, especially regarding the rules concerning commercial vessels, Turkey so far has avoided opening an international debate on Montreux because it is viewed as the optimal arrangement to protect its interests. Turkey remains committed to resisting any changes being made to any of the loopholes, as it has demonstrated in this episode.

    Given its flourishing economic relations with Russia and its dependence on Russian gas, Turkey so far has avoided taking any steps in this crisis that will sever its relations with Russia and provoke further Russian aggression in the region. Accordingly, it acted with caution and followed a restrained policy vis-à-vis American demands, acting in concert with European powers. To its credit, the United States also showed restraint in its demands on Turkey and respected Ankara’s sensibilities to the Montreux Convention. As veteran analyst Sami Kohen argues, however, “the new developments in the Georgia crisis will probably challenge Turkish diplomacy and make balancing increasingly difficult” (Milliyet, August 21).

  • Should Russia recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia?

    Should Russia recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia?

     
    19:00 | 25/ 08/ 2008
     

    MOSCOW. (Fyodor Lukyanov for RIA Novosti) – The Georgian-Russian conflict has dramatically changed the position of the self-proclaimed republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The idea of recognizing their independence has been put to the vote in Moscow.

    By trying to use military force to restore the country’s territorial integrity, Tbilisi has killed the last hope of a political settlement to the conflict. The return of the breakaway republics to Georgian sovereignty, unlikely before Mikheil Saakashvili’s ill-advised adventure, is now completely impossible.

    But this does not mean the future is predetermined. There are two precedents that developments may follow: that of Kosovo or that of Cyprus. Russia must be very careful when choosing between them.

    The Kosovo scenario seems to promise more lasting results. Judging by the sixth paragraph on the Medvedev-Sarkozy plan, or at least its Moscow version, which provides for international discussion of the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the Kremlin would prefer the Kosovo scenario.

    But it can only be implemented if the UN Security Council approves a relevant resolution, similar to Resolution 1244 adopted in June 1999 after the end of NATO’s air raids on Yugoslavia.

    The international community already knew then that Kosovo, which had refused to bow to the central authorities long before the Yugoslav army pulled out, would never accept the sovereignty of Belgrade. However, it was impossible to announce this publicly, as this could have provoked unpredictable developments in Serbia and would amount to the crude dismemberment of a sovereign state.

    The issue was put on hold, and at Moscow’s insistence a clause was added to the resolution affirming the territorial integrity of Yugoslavia.

    This did not save Belgrade, but Russia and Serbia doggedly quoted that clause when contesting Kosovo’s unilateral proclamation of independence and its recognition by several Western countries.

    The Russian leaders only state the facts when they say that Saakashvili has dealt a deadly blow to Georgia’s territorial integrity. Yet the Security Council cannot approve a document that does not affirm it. Not only the West, bent on supporting Tbilisi, but also most other countries, would oppose it.

    It is one thing when some states act illegally, as when Kosovo’s independence was legalized. But it is quite another matter when the international community approves a resolution sanctioning the dissolution of a sovereign state. No country, including those that will never experience such problems, could approve it.

    On the other hand, Moscow will find it extremely difficult for domestic reasons to tolerate any mention of Georgia’s territorial integrity in a UN resolution. It has made quite a few public statements and pledged to pay for the restoration of South Ossetia. Besides, it will be impossible to explain to the public why a military victory has not translated into a political win.

    It will take refined diplomatic skills to formulate ideas in such a way that all sides can interpret them as victory. Otherwise, the danger is that developments in Georgia will follow the Cyprus scenario. Russia would unilaterally recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia according to the formula that has linked Turkey and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which only Turkey has recognized, since 1974.

    This would create new problems without solving old ones.

    If Russia opts for that scenario, the position of the breakaway republics will not change in terms of international law, even though many countries have lately been violating it. It should be said, for justice’s sake, that Moscow is not among the leaders in this ignoble race.

    The practical situation will not improve either. The United States encouraged a score of influential countries to recognize Kosovo’s independence, but Russia is unlikely to convince even one country to follow its example. International support for Russia’s actions, or rather lack thereof, became apparent during its clash with Georgia.

    Unilateral recognition of their independence will not help Abkhazia or South Ossetia to break out of international isolation, but will put powerful pressure on Russia. Moscow could not be blamed for its stance on Kosovo because it acted strictly according to international law, while Western countries appealed to expediency. The situation can be reversed this time, with Russia’s actions losing consistency and integrity.

    It would be extremely difficult to follow the Kosovo scenario even if the Security Council approved a resolution on Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Their new status can be formalized only if the process becomes international, whereas Moscow and the two breakaway republics would like to decide the matter without international involvement. Unfortunately, they cannot do so, because Russia lacks the political resource.

    The issue of Abkhazia and South Ossetia’s status will take some time to decide. It took nine years for Kosovo to gain independence, and even then only part of the international community recognized it. Northern Cyprus has been demanding independence for nearly 34 years.

    Hasty moves motivated by a desire to score political points at home or demonstrate Russia’s ability to disregard the opinions of others would seriously damage the Kremlin’s prestige. But hard daily political and diplomatic efforts will eventually bring about the desired effect.

    Fyodor Lukyanov is editor-in-chief of the Moscow-based magazine Russia in Global Affairs.