Tag: Şahin Alpay

  • Regime change in Turkey

    Regime change in Turkey

    Regime change in Turkey

    Last week I took part in two panel discussions titled “What does Turkey think?” First of them took place in Vienna at a meeting jointly organized by the Bruno Kreisky Forum, the European Stability Initiative and the Center for Liberal Strategies (Sofia).

    The second took place as part of “New Directions for Turkish-Greek Engagement in the Middle East and Balkans” conference jointly organized by Bahçeşehir University and the University of Oxford in Istanbul. During both I felt the need to talk about regime change in Turkey.

    The Republic of Turkey is indeed in a process of regime change through piecemeal reforms led for the first time in its history by an elected government. It is engaged in the process of transition from a kind of electoral democracy where the reigns of power are held by the military and civilian bureaucracy committed to a highly authoritarian form of secular nationalism called Kemalism to a kind of liberal and pluralist democracy defined roughly by the Copenhagen political criteria of the European Union. It is hoped and expected that this process will culminate in the consolidation of democracy by the adoption of an entirely new constitution, the first steps toward which were taken by Parliament recently.

    There are a multitude of factors that account for the fact that the transition is proceeding in “slow motion” and often takes two steps forward and one step back. The main internal factors are the following:

    The fierce opposition coming from state elites, the holders of power of the old regime, which has assumed the form of military and judicial coup attempts against the elected government.

    The resistance to reforms by political parties committed to Kemalist secularism or nationalism.

    The loyalty of an important part of civil society to the old regime or its distrust of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) leading the process of regime change.

    The violent insurgency led by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

    And the government’s lack of a clear idea of what needs to be done, and thus its “muddling through” kind of leadership.

    The main external factor that has affected the pace of regime change is surely the EU’s strong support for reforms beginning with the declaration of Turkey’s candidacy for membership in 1999, which practically disappeared in 2005, soon after the start of accession negotiations due to governments opposing Turkish membership coming to power in France and Germany, and Greek Cyprus trying to impose its conditions on the reunification of the island, once it joined the union.

    Where, then, does Turkey stand today in this process of regime change? As described best by the annual reports of the European Commission on Turkey’s progress towards membership, the next of which is due in 10 days’ time, there has been substantial progress. Turkey, especially since the coming to power of the AKP government, is moving towards a liberal and pluralist democracy. Perhaps the main assurance of this progress is its open economy, achievement of macroeconomic stability and growth, leading to the impressive tripling of per capita income, which explains the electoral successes of the AKP government. Yes, there are risks involved, but the economy is expected to continue to grow.

    There are surely many problems experienced in the sphere of democracy, perhaps the most serious problem being legal provisions that criminalize even non-violent views. The provisions of the Counterterrorism Law (TMK) and the Turkish Penal Code (TCK), which restrict freedom of expression, need to be amended urgently. Despite legal restrictions on freedom of expression and government pressure on the media, there exists a broad and lively public debate on major political problems making the country an increasingly open society.

    Although Turkey has not yet fully established democratic control over the military significant changes have taken place in that direction. There are many problems involved in establishing the rule of law, but some steps have been taken even in that sphere. The denial of Kurdish identity has come to an end, and modest steps toward its recognition have also been taken. Pro-Kurdish parties are in power in many municipalities of the predominantly Kurdish regions since 2004, and represented in Parliament since 2007. It is strongly hoped that the recently disclosed secret negotiations, in progress since 2006 between the state authorities and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) will finally succeed in bringing the armed insurgency to an end. It is not only the vast majority of Turks, but also the Kurds who are now raising their voices against PKK violence.

    With its increasingly open economy and society Turkey is on its way to consolidate democracy on EU norms. The EU may be severely divided over the issue of Turkish accession, and negotiations between Turkey and the EU may have effectively come to a halt, but partly due to the societal forces released by the EU accession process, Turkey is clearly moving towards convergence with the EU in both economic and political terms, and also even in the sphere of foreign policy, a topic which requires separate treatment.

    Sahin Alpay, Zaman

    via Regime change in Turkey.

  • What does Turkey think?

    What does Turkey think?

    Understanding the new Turkey from within

    “What does Turkey think?” is a collection of nine essays by Turkish experts and political figures from different backgrounds – Islamists, secularists, Kurds and liberals. The essays examine how questions of identity, democratisation and Ankara’s evolving foreign policy are seen from within the new Turkey.

    turkeysideThe authors of “What does Turkey think?” are Dimitar Bechev, Mustafa Akyol, Ayşe Kadıoğlu, Orhan Miroğlu, Şahin Alpay, Hakan Altinay, Osman Baydemir, Ibrahim Kalın, Atila Eralp, Zerrin Torun, Suat Kınıklıoğlu, Soli Özel and Ivan Krastev.

    “What does Turkey think?” was made possible by the support of Stiftung Mercator, and is a collaboration between ECFR, Stiftung Mercator, the Sofia-based Centre for Liberal Studies (CLS) and the Istanbul-based Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM).

    There are three key areas of public discussion:

    1. Can the new Turkey deal with its internal diversity, reconcile historical tensions and heal deep wounds?

    2. Is Turkey moving in the direction of consolidating democratic achievements, or is it threatened by a populist tyranny of the majority or even authoritarian rule?

    3. Why is Turkey acting independently of the West, and is it a partner or rival for the EU and US, particularly in its own neighbourhood?

    Many Turks feel alienated by the EU’s increasing reluctance to admit Turkey as a member. As a result the EU is absent from many internal Turkish debates, although it still matters in crucial ways:

    * In identity politics the EU may help Turkey reconcile its internal differences, for instance in finding a peaceful solution for the Kurdish issue.

    * The EU has helped to anchor domestic Turkish democratisation and now has the potential to allay fears that the power of the AKP is unchecked as a new constitution is drafted.

    * The EU remains vital for Turkish economic success, thanks to its proximity and the heavy connectedness with Europe’s massive internal market. Although Turkey has been growing quickly, it cannot compete with East Asian labour costs and needs Europe as it tries to move up the value chain and develop a modern knowledge-driven economy.

    * Turkey’s attractiveness to neighbours in the Middle East benefits from its close economic and political ties with Europe.

    Download the PDF of “What does Turkey think?” here

    Click here for more ECFR work on Turkey, including articles, blog posts and a range of podcasts.

    “Turkey is now an actor, an economic pole, and perhaps an aspiring regional hegemon. Shunned by the EU, Turkey has paradoxically become more like it: globalised, economically liberal and democratic.”

    Dimitar Bechev, editor and ECFR senior policy fellow.

    “The new dynamism in Turkish foreign policy over the last decade has prompted a range of questions. To answer such questions, one needs to understand the changes in Turkish domestic politics, in surrounding regions and in the global order over the first decade of the 21st century.”

    Ibrahim Kalın, Senior Advisor to Prime Minister Erdogan on foreign policy and public diplomacy.

    Background:

    * GDP per capita (PPP) was $14,243 in 2010, compared to around $6,000 a decade earlier. Its GDP is expected to average 4% growth per year over the next decade.

    * Turkey’s economy is the 16th largest in the world, and the 6th largest in Europe.

    * The EU accounts for 40.5% of Turkish imports (€40.5 billion) and 45.9% of exports (€33.6 billion). It is also the source of 80% of FDI into Turkey.

    * The AKP is expected to win a third term in power in this June’s parliamentary elections. The opposition CHP (People’s Republican Party) is also likely to perform strongly, thanks to its new leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and its shift towards social democracy while still playing the role of guardian of Kemalism.

    * The economy, constitutional change, the Kurdish question and democratic consolidation are all key electoral issues.

    Notes:

    * This paper, like all ECFR publications, represents the views of its authors, not the collective position of ECFR or its Council Members.

    * “What does Turkey think?” is part of a series of studies carried out by ECFR to explore the internal debates of other powers in an increasingly multipolar world at the level of ideas as well as power. This publication follows the same methodology as ECFR’s earlier project on “What does Russia think?”, and ECFR director Mark Leonard’s book “What does China think?”

    via The European Council on Foreign Relations | What does Turkey think?.