Tag: Recep Tayyip Erdogan

12th president of Turkey

  • Merkel’s Visit to Turkey Marks a Positive Change of Mind

    Merkel’s Visit to Turkey Marks a Positive Change of Mind

    As the eurozone crisis shows signs of further deepening with the new uncertainties in the wake of Italian ‘non-elections’, Germany is increasingly under strain to keep the European Union intact.

    Berlin has to deal not only with the brewing anti-austerity and anti-unionism in the Mediterranean strip of the EU (all the way from Cyprus through Portugal, except, perhaps, France), but also with an uneasy Britain and loudly impatient Turkey on the continent’s both flanks.

    In that context, German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s visit to Turkey must be added as another positive step toward melting the icy relationship between Ankara and the EU.

    It follows two other important recent steps. First, France unblocked a chapter (of five) of Ankara’s negotiations with Brussels, coming during its current peace talks with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and secondly, Greek Cypriots overwhelmingly (57.5 percent) voted for the Democratic Rally (DISY) leader, Nicos Anastasiades in the presidential election, a strong signal of a mood change on the island.

    Merkel’s visit was long overdue. It has been well-noted that she has visited Turkey only once in three years, while Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has visited Germany four times.

    Should it be interpreted as the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) now being in accord with its coalition partner, the Free Democratic Party (FDP), about the strategic importance, economic performance and crucial democratic transformation of Turkey? Perhaps. Does this mean that the German chancellor comes closer to CDU heavyweights who have been vocally pro-Turkish membership, such as Ruprecht Polenz, Chariman of the Bundestag’s Committee on Foreign Affairs, and gets ready to be challenged by others within?

    Could be. Deep down she knows that she has the backing of those CDU strong figures, on central and local level, although a few, about remaining committed to coalition protocol on Turkey’s accession and support for it to continue. But a slight challenge nevertheless.

    No matter what,one can hope that the visit and the positive sound of her messages indicate a long-lasting change of mind.

    Cynics in Turkey and Germany think they have seen “no progress” between Erdoğan and Merkel on Turkey’s EU accession process. Populist Bild Zeitung, in another outburst of sensationalist Turkophobia, totally insensitive to Turkey’s internationally important democratization process as ever, declared that ‘Turkey would never be a full member of the EU’ — despite its powerful economy. (This view reveals more about some parts of the Europe than Turkey itself).

    Bild is joined in Turkey by voices that have been anti-reform, anti-AKP and anti-Europe.

    The truth, and the good news, is, Merkel not only endorsed France’s unblocking move, but also signaled that other chapters may follow, with perhaps a second one even before the end of the Irish term presidency in the EU. One understands that she needs to balance very carefully in an election year for Germany on a subject which can shake and stir the votes.

    There are many aspects to why Germany should be more active, frank and clear about its relations with Turkey and its policy on the EU negotiations. Pro-EU arguments based on today’s Turkish economy speak for themselves, as outlined by Kemal Derviş, the vice president of the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., and a former minister of economic affairs of Turkey, for the daily Handelsblatt on Feb. 25, 2013 in an article titled “Die Politik ist am Zug” (“The policy is on track”).

    Apart from fine figures on inflation, growth, reduced deficit, employment, strong currency and reserves, German politicians do look with admiration at “hardworking” Turks (a virtue they value highly), when they compare them with the Mediterranean citizens of the EU.

    Turkey with such an economy is now too big for Germany to ignore, and far too important to be seen only as a simple trading partner, no doubt. Therefore, the tough visa regulations and the particularly rigid implementation of it attributed to German general councils in Turkey must be eased — liberalized in the sense that, once having passed a security check, Turkish citizens must be given five-year, multiple-entry Schengen visas.

    Nor should there be any doubt that increasing defense cooperation through NATO on Syria creates a new momentum for Berlin to realize more deeply Turkey’s significance on the southeastern flank of the continent, as it shoulders increasing burdens. Stability in Turkey, in that sense, can be said to be serving the stability of Germany, and of Europe as a whole.

    Merkel did not say much on Turkey’s Kurdish peace process, but given the presence of large, politicized Turkish communities; Alevi and Kurdish diasporas in her own country — take it for granted that solutions on all social rifts here will ease tensions there. Interests overlap.

    And in that case, it is demanded that Germany more thoroughly consider indirect, discreet assistance to endorse Turkey in its struggle against historical demons. The EU membership process, kept alive and well, is the best help.

    What Bild Zeitung and other populist tabloids do miss is that, what still matters most for Turkey’s reformist camp is the perspective of, and not necessarily, membership.

    Given the current turmoil and identity crisis the EU is in, it can be said that there will have to be referendums on Turkish membership — in Europe and Turkey – between now and the final decision. The process is still premature: It needs a decade or more. So, no need for myopia.

    Merkel is certainly right in her arguments about Cyprus (that Turkey opens its sea and airports to its flights and vessels), even if it is an issue that still needs time, given the stalemate. Before that, both sides on the island must show a concrete, willful progress on reaching a settlement.

    It has become also clear that Erdoğan is willing to resolve the issue in a broader context.

    He expects a complementary signal from Anastasiades, and has in mind a “package solution” that should involve Cypriots as well as Greece, energy, security and economic cooperation in Eastern Mediterranean, with the backing of Britain and the U.S.

    Germany can play a crucial role, in both EU and NATO context, if Erdoğan’s ideas make any sense.

  • Erdoğan can be Lincoln of Turkey

    Erdoğan can be Lincoln of Turkey

    Abraham Lincoln is one of few U.S. presidents that ordinary people outside the U.S. could recall immediately. And say a hundred years from now, other than the founding President George Washington, possibly Lincoln, John Kennedy and Barack Obama (and possibly the first Latin and first woman) will be recalled by those outside the U.S.A.

    It was Lincoln who put an end to slavery and it was Kennedy who put an end to segregation between white and black. It is true that they both had tragic ends but that is not the issue here; the issue is that they are remembered for what they have done for the rights of people coming from birth. They were the ones to pave the way for Obama as the first African-American president of the U.S.A.

    Erdogan and the Kurdish problem

    It is surprising to see the similarities of the circumstances under which Lincoln had taken his steps to end slavery and Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan has been taking with the aim to find a political solution to Turkey’s chronic Kurdish problem

    Murat Yetkin

    Lincoln’s struggle to end slavery under the circumstances of a civil war is the theme of Steven Spielberg’s latest film ‘Lincoln’. It is surprising to see the similarities of the circumstances under which Lincoln had taken his steps to end slavery and Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan has been taking with the aim to find a political solution to Turkey’s chronic Kurdish problem.

    There should be no room for misunderstanding: Kurds are among native peoples of this geography and Africans were taken to America by force and enslaved in sugar and cotton plantations; there is no similarity in that sense. The similarities are in the political circumstances and in parameters.

    Lincoln was trying to get the Congress to approve a Constitutional amendment of regime changing qualities when the Civil War was getting more and more devastating.

    Erdoğan is trying to find a political end to an armed conflict within the country and trying to get the Parliament approve a new Constitution of regime changing qualities.

    In both cases the Constitutional process and the process to give an end to the conflict are closely related and converging.

    Knowing that if the peace talks with the pro-slavery South will start officially, the House will leave the Constitution aside, Lincoln handled the processes simultaneously. Meanwhile he used occasional unethical methods to deceive some Democrat members and did not stop military campaign against the rebels, but without making a fuss about it.

    He knew that people’s number one demand was to have an end to war which was taking their sons from their hands. Not peace necessarily, but to have an end to war, which are actually two different things.

    Lincoln managed to instigate a perception that if slavery ends the war will end too.

    Supporting peace talks

    Erdoğan has to know in today’s Turkey that the silent and cautious support that he is getting from people for the dialogue process with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party PKK (as an organization whose armed campaign has claimed 40 thousand lives in the last three decades) is not because people have complicated thoughts about peace, but simply to have an end to bloodshed and conflict. Regardless of being parents of soldiers or militants, the majority do not want to hear the death news of their children anymore.

    This is a rare moment. Erdoğan has a bases when he says ‘War is easier, peace is difficult’ when he makes a call to Kurdish origin politicians to share the responsibility. He also has to know that to project this support for the Constitutional process in order to give more uncontrollable power to executive body and to use it as president might put the Kurdish solution process in jeopardy. He has to use this rare chance carefully.

    If he can do this and convince people that a political solution to Kurdish problem is on track and the conflict is over, yes, there is a chance that Erdoğan can be the Lincoln of Turkey. And like Lincoln, perhaps be recalled as second to Turkey’s founding president Mustafa Kemal Atatürk for those looking from outside.

    This article first appeared on Hurriyet Daily News on Feb.18, 2013.

    Murat Yetkin is the current editor-in-chief of Hurriyet Daily News and a columnist for Radikal, a Turkish publication. He is a political commentator on Turkish and Middle Eastern affairs and has previously worked for BBC World Service and AFP. He can be found on Twitter: @MuratYetkin2.

    via Erdoğan can be Lincoln of Turkey.

  • Court: ‘Erdogan insult’ complaint pits disabled man against Turkey

    Court: ‘Erdogan insult’ complaint pits disabled man against Turkey

    A disabled man who alleges he was beaten by bodyguards after his arrest for insulting Turkey’s Prime Minister will find out tomorrow if his human rights were breached.

    court_building2Necati Yılmaz v. Turkey (no. 15380/09)

    The applicant, Necati Yılmaz, is a Turkish national who was born in 1963 and lives in Araklı-Trabzon (Turkey). He has an 80% eyesight impairment caused by retinitis pigmentosa.

    On 7 April 2007 Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Erdoğan went to Araklı to inaugurate a new road. At the end of Erdoğan’s speech, the applicant was arrested for having publicly insulted the Prime Minister.

    When questioned by the public prosecutor on 8 April, he denied the accusations and complained that he had been beaten by the Erdoğan’s bodyguards. He was released the same day.

    Relying on Article 3, the applicant complains that he was ill-treated by the Prime Minister’s bodyguards. Under Articles 6 and 13, he complains that there was no effective remedy under Turkish law.

    The European Court of Human Rights will make known its decision in writing on 12 February.

    via Court: ‘Erdogan insult’ complaint pits disabled man against Turkey | HUMANERIGHTSEUROPE.

  • Turkey Denies U.S. Complained Over Comments Against Israel

    Turkey Denies U.S. Complained Over Comments Against Israel

    Turkey denies that the United States expressed concerns over remarks made by the country’s officials about alleged Israeli raid in Syria.

    By Elad Benari

    First Publish: 2/8/2013, 3:15 AM

    img373481

    Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan

    AFP/File

    Turkey denied on Thursday that the United States expressed concerns to Turkish authorities over remarks made by the country’s officials about an alleged Israeli raid on a military convoy and a research center near Damascus last week.

    Diplomatic sources told the Turkish daily Today’s Zaman that the U.S. embassy did not convey any concerns to the Turkish side over the remarks.

    “There has been no initiative or a meeting in Ankara [between Turkish and US officials]. We couldn’t understand what they were referring to,” the sources told the newspaper.

    On Saturday, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu criticized the Syrian government for failing to respond to the alleged Israel airstrike, suggesting that the Syrian stance raises suspicions that there is a secret deal between the two countries.

    “Why has the Syrian army, which has been attacking its own people with warplanes and tanks for 22 months, not responded to this Israeli operation?” Davutoglu asked.

    “Why doesn’t [Bashar al-Assad] throw a stone at the Israeli planes while they fly over his palace and insult his nation’s honor? Why doesn’t he do anything against Israel while he drops bombs on the innocent people of his country? Is there a secret agreement between Israel and Assad?” he added.

    A day later, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Israel of waging “state terrorism” as he condemned the alleged air strike as an unacceptable violation of international law.

    “Those who have been treating Israel like a spoilt child should expect anything from them, at any time,” Erdogan said.

    “As I say time and again, Israel has a mentality of waging state terrorism. Right now, there is no telling what it might do and where it might do it,” he told reporters.

    “We cannot regard a violation of air space as acceptable. What Israel does is completely against international law… it is beyond condemnation,” Erdogan said.

    Responding to the comments, State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland called them “inflammatory” and said they are “obviously very troubling to us.”

    Nuland told reported that the U.S. had “conveyed our concerns on this matter with senior Turkish officials.” She added that the U.S. administration had expressed these concerns to Turkish authorities via the U.S. Embassy in Ankara.

    The U.S. embassy in Ankara declined to comment on the matter and said it is impossible to provide more information than what Nuland said.

    Tags: Syria ,Turkey ,Recep Tayyip Erdogan ,Ahmet Davutoglu ,Victoria Nuland ,Turkey-Israel relations ,IAF-Syria

    via Turkey Denies U.S. Complained – Middle East – News – Israel National News.

  • Washington’s misplaced support for Turkey’s Erdogan

    Washington’s misplaced support for Turkey’s Erdogan

    December 26, 2012 by Ataturk Society UK

    Washington’s misplaced support for Turkey’s Erdogan

    TAOS, New Mexico, December 23, 2012 – For over a decade now, US administrations have hailed Turkey’s Islamist AKP government led by Prime Minister Erdogan as a model of democracy and “moderate” Islam. In the wake of the Arab Spring, Prime Minister Erdogan traveled to Libya, Egypt and Tunisia as an extension of American “soft power” to encourage fledgling governments to adopt the Turkish version of Islamic democracy.

    The problem here is that Washington is again allowing pragmatism to trump principle. The US is apparently so eager to find alternative vehicles of political expression to combat radical Islam in the Middle East that it is willing to gloss over the gross violations of basic human rights being perpetrated in its chosen “model” for the world of Islam.

    Return of the Ottomans?

    It is no secret that Erdogan and his chief advisors are ardent admirers of the Ottoman state, the vast empire ruled by the Turks for 600 years. This open admiration coupled with the government’s foreign policy strategies indicate that Erdogan’s government is seeking to regain a similar type of influence in the region. The question is which Ottoman Sultan Erdogan is trying to emulate.

    Sultan Beyazid mi?

    In 1485 Sultan Beyazid II issued a decree banning the printing press in the Ottoman Empire. It would be two and half centuries (1727) before printing of Arabic letters would be permitted.

    In its 2012 report, the watchdog group Reporters Without Borders, which is based in France, confirms what press freedom activists and international observers have been shouting from the rooftops for years now. The secular, constitutional, democratic, Republic of Turkey, a candidate for EU membership and the only Muslim member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been waging a campaign of terror against freedom of the press, jailing more journalists for their professional activities than any other country in the world.

    With 72 journalists currently in prison pending trial, at least 46 of which RSF has determined are being incarcerated for their journalistic work, Turkey has more than twice as many reporters in prison as China (30), followed by Eritrea (28), Iran (26) and Syria (21).

    RSF called Turkey, “…the world’s biggest prison for journalists, a sad paradox for a country that portrays itself as a regional democratic model.”

    Although their tally differs slightly, The Committee to Protect Journalists, based in New York, also puts Turkey at the top of its list of offenders. Turkish journalist Mehmet Ali Birand is quoted as saying that the Turkish government “does not differentiate between these two major things: freedom of expression and terrorism.”

    Erdogan’s government claims that these journalists are being held for serious crimes, namely membership in armed terrorist organizations and that their detentions have nothing to do with journalism. But, the facts tell a different story. The AKP may not have banned the press, but it has ruthlessly suppressed dissent and intimidated its political opponents, especially those voicing their opinions in the public arena by sending them to prison and leaving them there to rot.

    Sultan Abdülhamid mi?

    In 1880, Sultan Abdülhamid responded positively to attempts by Sheikh Ubeydullah to win some degree of autonomy for the Kurds under Turkish protection. It looked like the Turks and Kurds might have found a federal solution, but it was short-lived and Kurdish aspirations were dashed when the Ottomans reasserted supreme control.

    This is not unlike to Erdogan’s much touted Kurdish Initiative, which was supposed to bury the hatchet between the two peoples. When the Kurds did not respond to Turkish magnanimity as he had hoped, he followed in the footsteps of Sultan Abdülhamid wearing boots of iron.

    The European Association of Lawyers for Democracy and World Human Rights (ELDH) reports that around 8,000 politicians, trade-unionists, journalists, artists, students, human rights activists and their lawyers have been the victims of mass arrests in Turkey since 2009. Many of these arrests have been part of the Turkish government’s operation against the KCK (Union of Communities in Kurdistan) under the Anti-Terrorism Law of 1991.

    Those arrested include Mr. Ragip Zarakolu, a publisher nominated for the Nobel Prize by members of the Swedish Parliament and a founding member of the Turkish Human Rights Association (IHD); Prof. Büsra Ersanlı, a constitutional law expert, and Ayşe Berktay, a respected translator, researcher and global peace and justice activist, who was one of the main organizers of the World Tribunal on Iraq in Istanbul in 2005. A total of 205 individuals have been indicted in the case and the next hearing is scheduled for February 4, 2013.

    Thirty-six Turkish and Kurdish lawyers were arrested in raids conducted across the country in November 2011. IHD Vice President Muharrem Erbey is still in prison awaiting trial and was not even released to receive the Ludovic-Trarieux Prize from the German Minister of Justice in November 2012.

    In questioning by parliament, Turkish Minister of Justice Sadullah Ergin admitted that 2,146 people are currently on trial in the KCK operation, of which 992 are in prison and 274 are elected representatives. This is just one example of the “mass trials” being conducted in Turkey, trials that often take years and during which even nonviolent individuals who do not pose a flight risk are held without bail.

    The European Commission’s 2011 Progress Reports states: “Frequent use of arrests instead of judicial supervision, limited access to files, failure to give detailed grounds for detention decisions and revisions of such decisions highlight the need to bring the Turkish criminal justice system into line with international standards and to amend the anti-terror legislation.” The ELDH report notes that since the founding of the European Court of Human Rights, the majority of violation judgments have been handed down against Turkey, even more than those against Russia.

    Sultan Mahmud mu?

    For centuries the Janissaries, the elite troops of the Ottoman Empire, were the terror of Europe and the spearhead of Ottoman military expansion into southern Europe. They may have been an asset on the battlefield, but they were always a thorn in the Sultan’s side at home. The Janissaries were often the de facto rulers of the Empire. When their demands were not met, they rioted. Their power was so great that they had the heads of unpopular viziers handed to them on a platter. In 1826, Mahmud II solved this problem once and for all by turning artillery on the Janissary barracks and slaughtering the entire lot.

    The “mass trial” technique used against political opponents was also employed against the military starting in 2008. In the Balyoz (Sledgehammer) and Ergenkon cases, hundreds of high-ranking officers and generals from the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) are accused of plotting to overthrow Erdogan’s government. As a result, members of the armed forces opposed to the Islamist AKP have been liquidated, much like the Janissaries.

    Convictions were handed down in the Sledgehammer case earlier this year even though it has been convincingly demonstrated that some of the digital “evidence” in the alleged coup plot was fabricated. The Ergenkon trial is ongoing. But last year the four most senior military officers resigned in protest of the continuing detention of 250 officers.

    The need for reform in the military has been obvious for a long time. It viewed itself as the guardian of the secular regime in Turkey and wielded an inordinate amount of power over the country, power that the EU and proponents of democracy claimed was antithetical to the rule of law and government of, by and for the people. The army was a source of ultra-nationalism and displayed fascist tendencies. It often opposed the opening of the country to foreign involvement and investment, but it was committed to the secular principles of Atatürk, and supporters have long insisted that without it Turkey would be another Islamic state under sharia law.

    It is in this context that the military trials must be viewed. Many Turks would expect the military to have drawn up contingency plans for dealing with any attempt by a religiously motivated political party to impose sharia law and overthrow the constitutional order. This is not “coup planning.”

    Unfortunately for the military, Erdogan’s friends in the West apparently agree with Erdogan’s decision to deal with the military. So Erdogan is following in the footsteps of Mahmud II with this one-and-done approach to eliminating the problematic military establishment. The problem is that these mass trials have clearly violated principles of due process and certainly convicted innocent men. Necessary collateral damage? Maybe. As the Turkish proverb says, ‘Green wood burns too when lit alongside the dry.’

    Sultan Selim mi?

    Selim III was a very reform-minded ruler who was well-educated and loved literature and calligraphy. He was said to be a brilliant musician and was a patron of the fine arts. His ascendancy to the throne was an occasion of great joy, for the people had hoped that he would restore their former superiority.

    Erdogan too has initiated a number of important reforms. His administration has, at least in word, recognized the rights of minorities more than any government since the Republic was founded. The political stability helped foster a period of incredible economic growth. He has pushed for democracy in the Middle East and championed Turkey’s membership in the EU. He also launched the Alliance of Civilizations with Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero. The window dressing is impressive.

    Selim III did not have an auspicious end. His efforts to reform the military eventually backfired and he abdicated only to be assassinated two months later. The blatant disregard for human rights may prove to be Erdogan’s undoing as well.

    Last week Prime Minister Erdogan went to Middle East Technical University to celebrate the launch of a satellite. The university has a reputation for opposing right-wing Islamic governments. Erdogan must have felt threatened as his visit was accompanied by 2,500 police, 20 armored vehicles and 105 protective vehicles. There were clashes between students and police. News of the event quickly spread around the world via social media, using the slogan, “Let the Sultan issue his decrees, the country belongs to us.”

    Western kowtowing

    For decades now, many international and European organizations have condemned Turkey’s human rights record, but neither Washington nor Belgium nor the UN has ever recommended sanctions. It is time for change.

    Support for the oppressive policies of governments Washington views as a “strategic partner” comes straight out of Washington’s playbook of failure. Remember US support for Saddam Hussein in the proxy war to counter the expansion of Iranian power and how necessary it was to support the dictator? Iraq failed while Iran’s mullahs remain in power. Recall the billions of dollars in foreign aid, including weapons, for Mubarak’s Egypt in the hopes that he could contain radical Islam. The oppressive policies of Mubarak’s authoritarian government only encouraged the “martyr” sentiment and today the Muslim Brotherhood ratified a constitution based on sharia law.

    It is time for President Barack Obama to call his friend Erdogan and have a frank conversation about what it means to be the leader of a free people under the rule of law. It is time to put principle above pragmatism. The last thing the West needs is a Sultan in Ankara.

     

     

    Luke Montgomery, author of A Deceit To Die For, lived in the Middle East for over a decade. He holds an MA in Linguistics, speaks fluent Turkish and writes on foreign policy, religion and culture. You can follow his work at www.lukemontgomery.net, or find him on Twitter at @LookingFor_Luke and on Facebook.

  • Turkey in 2013: Will Erdogan shake up the region?

    Turkey in 2013: Will Erdogan shake up the region?

    By Güneş Murat Tezcür, Special to CNN

    Editor’s note: Güneş Murat Tezcür is an associate professor of Political Science at Loyola University Chicago. The views expressed are the writer’s own.

    t1larg.erdogan.afp.gi

    It has been a decade since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in Turkey, and its achievements are certainly noteworthy. Since experiencing its worst economic crisis in recent history in 2001, Turkey has achieved sustainable, high growth rates. The AKP’s foreign policy, meanwhile, has been characterized by increasing activism, contributing to Turkey’s image as a rising regional power. The AKP has also dismantled the power of the military and judiciary, forces that frequently intervened in electoral politics. With the advent of the Arab uprisings, Turkey has promoted itself as a role model that combines democratic rule with Muslim piety.

    Yet, the AKP democratizing agenda that was initially triggered by the EU accession process has gradually lost steam. As the AKP has consolidated its power, it has lost its appetite for addressing the demands of historically marginalized groups such as the Kurds and Alevis. Another casualty of the AKP’s overconfidence has been press freedom. In Reporters Without Borders’s Press Freedom Index, Turkey ranked 103th out of 173 countries in 2008. Now it is ranked 148th out of 179.

    Still, the AKP will emerge victorious in 2014 local and presidential elections as long as it avoids a sharp economic downturn in 2013. Opposition parties lack the vision and resources to challenge the AKP’s political ascendancy even as Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan promotes some form of “presidentialism” to replace the current parliamentary system.

    This year, the AKP faced two major challenges. The transformation of the Syrian uprising into a civil war symbolized the end of Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu’s much touted “zero problems with the neighbors” policy. As the AKP put its weight behind the opposition, Turkey’s relations with Iran, Iraq and Russia came under increasing strain. Meanwhile, Kurdish insurgency-related violence has reached its highest levels since 1999. As the AKP adopted a more nationalist position, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), galvanized by the gains of the Syrian Kurds, intensified its attacks. These two issues – the violence in Syria and the Kurdish question – will continue to dominate Turkish politics in 2013.

    While the al-Assad regime in Syria has lost control of large areas of Syria, the likelihood of an orderly transition of power there is slim. But the AKP’s real concern is the strong appeal of the PYD, a PKK affiliate, among the Syrian Kurds. The Syrian Kurds are dispersed and impoverished, and lack unity, international support and control over oil resources. Similar to the Iraqi Kurds, the Syrian Kurds are likely to seek Turkish patronage to counter Arab power. At the same time, the revitalization of Kurdish nationalism in Syria has galvanized Turkish Kurds, whose demands for greater rights and power continue to trouble the AKP government.

    That said, despite this year’s spike in violence, the PKK is no position to militarily challenge the Turkish army in 2013, except in a few remote areas. But the government’s harsh law and order tactics, involving the imprisonment of thousands of Kurdish political activists, and an increasingly nationalistic discourse from Erdoğan, seem to be popular among large segments of the Turkish population. Indeed, Erdoğan seems to be content with a decline in support among Kurdish citizens as his nationalist credentials have bolstered his popularity among ethnic Turks. The AKP in 2013 will be hoping (unrealistically) that economic prosperity, newly offered cultural rights and repression of activism will decrease the appeal of Kurdish nationalism.

    Looking ahead, a key aspect of the AKP’s Kurdish policy involves Turkey’s relations with the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) and a plan to export Kurdish oil and gas via a new pipeline. Turkey has three objectives in mind with such a deal. First, the pipeline would help satisfy the fast growing energy needs of the Turkish economy. Second, it would make the KRG a de facto a protectorate of Turkey and further sever the links between the Kurdish nationalists in Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds. Finally, the AKP government hopes for greater prosperity from increased cooperation with the KRG to revitalize economic life in its Kurdish provinces.

    This growing cooperation between Turkey and the KRG complicates the U.S. strategy in the region in 2013 and beyond. As Turkey openly sides with the KRG in the latter’s dispute with the al-Maliki government in Iraq, Iran emerges as the only regional state that enjoys good relations with Baghdad. This development, in turn, undermines the U.S. goal of isolating Iran in the region. Yet given the widespread anti-Americanism in the region, the U.S. has no interest in alienating Erdoğan, whose pragmatism and populist appeal more than compensates for his authoritarian tendencies and over-ambitious foreign policy initiatives.

    How Erdogan’s government responds to changing regional realities next year could have far reaching consequences.

    via Turkey in 2013: Will Erdogan shake up the region? – Global Public Square – CNN.com Blogs.