Tag: Putin

  • Why Turkey is invading Syria

    Why Turkey is invading Syria

    Türkiye neden Suriye’yi işgal ediyor

    … and how it’s getting what it wanted.

    On Oct. 9, 2019, Turkey launched an attack in northeastern Syria. Turkey made the move shortly after the US announced it would remove some of its troops from the region.

    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had his eyes on the region for years. Turkey, he argued, needed a “safe zone” to serve as a buffer against the Syrian War happening just across the border. Yet back home in Turkey, there were other factors at play that accelerated his calls for an invasion that involved Erdoğan’s own political survival.

    The move has recalibrated alliances in the Syrian War and added new uncertainty on the future of the region.

    To learn more, check out these additional resources:

    Vox’s previous reporting on the conflict:
    https://www.vox.com/world/2019/10/16/20908262/turkey-syria-kurds-trump-invasion-questions
    https://www.vox.com/world/2019/10/23/20928769/trymp-syria-turkey-doctrine

    The Institute for the Study of War’s reports on the US withdrawal from Syria:

    Vox Atlas demonstrates where conflicts occur on a map and the ways in which foreign policy shapes a region. Watch all the episodes here:

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  • Putin, Erdogan nail down Syria deal

    Putin, Erdogan nail down Syria deal

    Article Summary
    The Russian and Turkish presidents met for more than six hours to come up with an agreement on Syria, one that might survive.

    MOSCOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan at his summer residence of Bocharov Ruchey in the Black Sea resort of Sochi on Oct. 22. This is their eighth meeting this year. Erdogan visited Russia four times this year: working visits on Jan. 23 and April 8; during the Astana trio summit Feb. 14;  and to attend the MARKS air show Aug. 27. Putin visited Turkey only once in 2019. On Sept. 16 Putin took part in another Astana group summit. The two also met at the G-20 summit in Osaka June 29, as well as a meeting in Dushanbe, Tajikstan June 15.

    In 2018, the two presidents also had seven meetings. Yet Putin visited Turkey three times, and Erdogan was in Russia once. The other three meetings took place on the margins of the BRICS summit in Johannesburg, at the Astana group meeting in Tehran and on the sidelines of the G-20 in Buenos Aires.

    Putin and Erdogan skipped the formalities and, after a brief introductory exchange, got down to what Putin would describe as a “business-like and honest conversation.” The two leaders negotiated one-on-one via a single interpreter. On a few occasions they called some members of the delegation into the room for short consultations.

    When it comes to Turkey, Russia’s trademark policy is to tie any initiative in Syria to a broader bilateral development to enforce its negotiation position. The last time Putin was in Ankara, Russia expedited the S-400 delivery, which was originally scheduled for the spring of 2020. Yet most recently, while focusing on Syria, Putin and Erdogan discussed prospects for increased cooperation in the military-technical area; boosting bilateral trade; and switching to payments in national currencies. Turkey also agreed to embrace Russia’s payment system, or Mir — an alternative to credit cards — to boost the flow of Russian tourists to the country.

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    More than six hours of talks resulted in an agreement that Erdogan hailed as “a new stage” in the Syrian conflict, a stage designed to bring peace. The 10-point joint memorandum covers the sensitive issues that both the Russians and the Turks have channeled to the other since the Turkish incursion.

    Specifically, Russia secured Turkey’s respect for “Syria’s territorial integrity” and for the “political unity” of the country. Turkey also recognized the Syrian Constitutional Committee as a key mechanism for the political process in the country. The committee is set to be formally launched next week in Geneva.

    Erdogan said he briefed Putin “in detail” about the Turkish operation — the Kremlin would also add that about the Turkish-American agreements — and was eloquent enough to convince Putin that Operation Peace Spring doesn’t seek a long-term occupation of Syria. Most importantly for Putin, however, was the basic recognition of the “importance” of the Adana agreement and Russia’s primacy in facilitating the process, as enshrined in point four of the deal. This may not yet be a recognition that the Adana agreement should be the basis for the Syrian-Turkish rapprochement, but it is a vital step toward it, just as Moscow wanted.

    Turkey, in turn, secured Russia’s recognition of the operation as a “legitimate security concern” of Ankara’s regarding the People’s Protection Units (YPG). Moscow didn’t challenge Turkey’s gains in the operation, and it also agreed to preserve the status quo created by the operation on the ground. This was meant to be an important sign of respect, both for Turkey’s interests and for Erdogan’s personal investment in the offensive. Russia thus ensured — for the time being — that Turkey doesn’t advance farther into Syria and uses the agreement with Moscow — rather than its long-term military presence — as a guideline to settle the conflict.

    Point five reads that, starting Oct. 23, Russian military police and the Syrian border guard will deploy to the Syrian side of the Turkey-Syria border, beyond the Operation Peace Spring zone, to facilitate the withdrawal of YPG forces and heavy armaments, up to 30 kilometers deep into Syria. Then joint Russian-Turkish units will patrol the 10-kilometer area to the west and east of the operation zone, except for Qamishli, which is under the control of the Syrian army. All YPG forces are to withdraw from Manbij and Tell Rifaat.

    Those principles, though, are largely in line with the spirit if not the letter of the Adana agreement. Moscow deems this situation favorable, at least for now.

    Russia’s deployment of the military police has been a trademark of its conflict management solution in Syria. “In any awkward situation, deploy the military police,” one could joke, if it were not such an effective tool for Moscow, be it in dealings between Israel and Iran, Iranian militias, Sunni opposition groups and now with the YPG and the Turks.

    The key question here is whether the deal over the withdrawal of the Kurdish forces was pre-negotiated between Russia and Damascus, on the one hand, and the Kurdish forces, on the other. The three have been spending a lot of time lately at the Khmeimim air base, for some reason.

    Russia avoided labeling the YPG as terrorists to allow for flexibility in engagement with the Kurdish forces. In this sense, point two is meant to vaguely address the mutual commitment of Russia and Turkey to “fighting terrorism in all of its forms and manifestations” and “confronting separatist intentions on Syrian territory.” The latter is in line with Moscow’s own “territorial integrity for Syria” red line, which Damascus supports. The point allows Ankara and Moscow to interpret accordingly, should a threat emerge.

    Similarly, point seven notes the Russian and Turkish commitment to “preventing any infiltration of terrorist elements.” This is something each party can interpret through its own political and security lens, although it was likely Turkey’s intent to single out Kurdish forces. Remarkably, in its own version of the statement, Russia used the acronym KOS, which, in Russian, stands for “Kurdish Self-Defense Units.”

    “We share the concern of the Turkish side over the rise of the threat of terrorism and the increase in ethnic tensions in this area. We believe these contradictions and separatist moods have been fueled from the outside,” Putin remarked, subtly poking the United States.

    Interestingly, the parties could have reached a deal on Idlib, but it went unmentioned in the joint statement, though Erdogan mentioned Idlib during the press conference as an agenda item. If such a deal was reached, it can be discerned from Moscow and Ankara’s actions in the next few days.

    “Thanks to this agreement, we won’t allow for any separatist organizations to emerge on Syrian territories,” Erdogan said. “Turkey and Russia will not allow it. Starting tomorrow, we will be implementing our project.”

    Found in: Russia in Syria

    Maxim A. Suchkov, is editor of Al-Monitor’s Russia / Mideast coverage. He is a non-resident expert at the Russian International Affairs Council and at the Valdai International Discussion Club. He was a Fulbright visiting fellow at Georgetown University (2010-11) and New York University (2015). On Twitter: @MSuchkov_ALM Email: msuchkov@al-monitor.com

  • Russian elections: why Putin wins

    For many Russian citizens who gave their votes for the future presidential candidates on Sunday as well as for most of international audience the result of the Russian elections has come to no surprise. However, the re-election of Vladimir Putin has risen a lot of controversies in the international media. While some experts believe the elections had been fabricated, independent international observers who were monitoring the elections process say exactly the opposite.

    Among the new members of the international observation delegation were the representatives from Abkhazia. They shared their fresh and unambiguous impression from the election process. According to Astamur Logua, Abkhazia’s Parliamentary Deputy, the entire election process met the international standards and was perfectly organized. He also added that voters who mostly came with their families and children were very cheerful and friendly while the atmosphere at the voting stations was quite festive. The observers from the Italian “North League” party mentioned that all international observers had been provided with all the necessary facilities required to perform their work including the free access to all the voting stations, non-stop support from the organizers etc.

    But what mystifies the international community the most is perhaps the conscious vote for Putin of most of the Russian citizens. Despite the “authoritative” style of the Putin’s policy, as how most of the Western media describe it, many young Russians along with the senior citizens preferred the Putin’s candidacy to a young opposition leader Ksenia Sobchak. Why did it happen? Many Russian people still clearly remember the tough 1990s, when Boris Yeltsin came to the power and proclaimed the change. It was then when many Russian people were left jobless overnight while others got fabulously wealthy. It was also the time when most of financial and trade deals not recorded and the proclaimed legalized government still reminded a sort of anarchy. When Putin came into power things got stabilized. Russian companies and industries started to thrive again while Russian people could afford buying cars, homes and have a better standard of living.

    Moreover, the example of Ukraine Revolution and the Arab Spring has taught the Russians a lesson: when it comes to the West’s interference into a sovereign government system and the West’s support of the opposition the outcome might be very disastrous for a single nation. Considering the multiple attempts of the West to destabilize the Russian legislative system including the latest case of Sergey Skripal’s poisoning the support of the Russian opposition could hardly have been massive for the Russians care about their national values, culture and traditions and remember the lessons the history has taught them.

  • Russia-Turkey: a new era of strategic partnership?

    Russia-Turkey: a new era of strategic partnership?

    putin erdoganRussian-Turkish relations have experienced such rocky times in the last couple of years that it would have been almost impossible to predict the further development of the partnership in the foreseeable future. Yet, since the beginning of 2017 the relationship between the two countries have started to warm up as both leaders, Putin and Erdogan have managed to find some important touch points to strengthen the sustainable economic ties with strategic political cooperation.

    The recovery of the diplomatic relations has been gained much due to the Turkey’s collaboration with Russia and Iran over Syria and their further fight against terrorism and the ISIS in the region. The successful development of the Astana process led by Russia, Turkey and Iran and the perspectives of hosting the National Dialogue Congress in Russia’s Sochi have raised a wave of anxiety in Washington as the United States were counting much on Ankara’s support in pursuing its military plans in Syria. Provided that Turkey’s decision to join Russia and Iran and its engagement in the Astana process met some serious controversies and tensions with the United States and the European Union one cannot help but ask the question if Turkey is shifting away from NATO toward the East.

    The facts speak for themselves: since the beginning of 2017 Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayip Erdogan have held eight face-to-face meetings not to mention multiple visits of Russian and Turkish diplomatic representatives and military officers in both ways.

    Apart from the cooperation over Syria and the joint fight against terrorism, the renewal of business, trade and economic relations as well as the prospective cooperation in the energy sector might launch a new era of partnership for both Russia and Turkey not only at the international or at federal levels but also at the regional levels as well.

    diriozOn December, 13-14, Husseyin Dirioz, Ambassador of the Turkish Republic to Russia visited the city of Yekaterinburg, situated in the Urals and known as the country’s industrial hub. During his meeting with the local government authorities Mr. Dirioz expressed the intention to strengthen the mutual collaboration in such industries as machine building, oil and gas, construction and development, pharmacy and chemical sector as well as in the spheres of tourism, science and education.

     

     

    However, a closer partnership with Russia is pulling Ankara in quite a confusing situation in which Turkey will have to make bigger efforts to keep the balance with the U.S. and the EU. While the European Union continues to remain the major region for Turkish exports Ankara still benefits from holding the NATO membership on some political and military matters. Given that, the United States will likely to start manipulating Turkey’s vulnerable position and take the target the Turkey’s most sensitive issues. For instance, Washington has reportedly been encouraging Syrian Kurds for military interventions to the territories on the East bank and further overtaking the key Syrian natural resources fields. The move, explained by the United States as an effort to create a Syrian Kurdish autonomy, has been highly criticized by Ankara as a driving force for the U.S. that will enable Washington to take control over Ankara and Damask.

    But despite both leaders Recep Tayip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin look at the mutual partnership through the prism of their domestic interests which sometimes causes some structural controversies in such questions as pursuing policies towards the U.S. and the E.U, the possibility of a fast development of Turkey-Russia cooperation into a strategic partnership is very high.  What’s bringing together Turkey and Russia today is perhaps the common mistrust of the Western policies. The emotional statements by U.S President Donald Trump such as announcement of Jerusalem as an Israel’s capital, the U.S. support of Syrian Kurds (that directly crosses the Ankara policy towards the Kurds) consolidate the strategic collaboration between Moscow and Ankara against “moody” President Trump and unfold incredible opportunities for expansion of economic and trade relations between Turkey and Russia. Moreover, with Turkey’s recognition of the Crimea as a Russian territory Moscow will open the “green corridor” for Turkish companies that will also let Turkey pursue its policy towards the Crimean-Tatar community in the peninsula.

    As the historical experience proves, the strong partnerships are created by those countries who have manage to resolve the most controversial and unwanted situations between each other. The common historical background, strong cultural and ethnic ties and the geographic proximity can become a solid ground for Russia and Turkey to build a strong alliance.

  • Putin: Those Who Make Fake Allegations Against Trump Are Worst Than Prostitutes

    Putin: Those Who Make Fake Allegations Against Trump Are Worst Than Prostitutes

    PutinRussian President Vladimir Putin has described allegations his country holds compromising material on US President-elect Donald Trump as “utter nonsense” BBC reports.

    Mr Putin questioned what reason Russian intelligence would have had to spy on Mr Trump before he entered politics.

    He said those making the allegations were “worse than prostitutes”.

    Memos published last week alleged Mr Trump’s election team colluded with Russia which also had salacious videos of his private life.

    The allegations claim Russia has damaging information about the US president-elect’s business interests, and that Mr Trump had been filmed with prostitutes at the Ritz-Carlton hotel in Moscow during the Miss Universe pageant in 2013.

    Mr Trump has dismissed the memos, said to have been prepared by a former British spy, as “fake news”.

    Speaking in Moscow, Mr Putin also said the published documents were “clearly fakes”, published by those trying to “undermine the legitimacy of the elected president”.

    “When Trump came to Moscow, he was not a political figure, we were not even aware of his political ambitions,” Mr Putin said.

    “Does somebody think that our secret services are chasing every American billionaire? Of course not. It is utter nonsense.”

    He added that he did not see why Mr Trump would rush to meet prostitutes in Moscow, given he was organising beauty pageants and meeting “the most beautiful women in the world”.

    “I find it hard to imagine he ran to a hotel to meet our girls of ‘low social responsibility’… though they are of course also the best in the world. But I doubt Trump took that bait.”

    Earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the UK ex-spy said to have prepared the memos is “some runaway crook from the MI6”.

    Christopher Steele, who runs a London-based intelligence firm, was highly regarded by his bosses when he worked for the British foreign spy agency MI6, sources have told the BBC.

    US intelligence agencies considered the claims relevant enough to brief both Mr Trump and President Barack Obama.

    Mr Trump accused US intelligence of leaking the content from a classified briefing – a claim denied by James Clapper, director of National Intelligence.

    Mr Putin also said reports that Russian hackers had interfered in the US election were “fake news”, though he told people to keep in mind that “the hackers didn’t make anything up – whoever they were – they just uncovered material”.

    The hacking scandal dominated the US election campaign, with US spy agencies concluding Russia was behind the hacking and release of Democratic Party emails intended to damage the campaign of Hillary Clinton.

    Russia has consistently denied it.

    ‘Restart a dialogue’

    Signalling optimism that the US-Russia relationship will improve under the new administration, Mr Lavrov said he was encouraged by some pragmatic comments from the Trump team so far.

    He said that Moscow was ready to co-operate with the new administration on key issues including nuclear weapons and Syria. US representatives have been invited to Syria peace talks in Kazakhstan next week but are yet to respond, he added.

    “I am convinced we will be able to restart a dialogue on strategic stability with Washington that was destroyed along with everything else by the Obama administration,” Mr Lavrov was quoted as saying by the Reuters news agency.

    US-Russia relations have worsened significantly in recent years over the war in Ukraine, the Syrian conflict and cyber-hacking.

  • Russia’s Involvement in the 2016 Election Is Growing by the Day

    Russia’s Involvement in the 2016 Election Is Growing by the Day

    Russia’s Involvement in the 2016 Election Is Growing by the Day

    Now the NSA director admits Russia used Wikileaks to meddle in the campaign.

     

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    This Story Should Dominate the News Until Trump Is Sworn In

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    Getty

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    By Charles P. Pierce

     

    It’s shoveling sand against the tide to ask this question again, but why isn’t the fact that Russia played monkey-mischief with the recent presidential election—and the fact that we have no freaking idea how much the president-elect may owe to various financial institutions with connection to that kleptocratic regime—a much bigger story than it has been? Now, we’ve got the director of the National Security Agency chiming it. Via Quartz:

    In response to a question, Michael S. Rogers, a Naval officer and NSA director since 2014, said on stage at a Wall Street Journal conference that Wikileaks was furthering a nation-state’s goals by publishing hacked emails from the Democratic National Committee and Clinton’s presidential campaign weeks ahead of the election. “There shouldn’t be any doubt in anybody’s minds, this was not something that was done casually, this was not something that was done by chance, this was not a target that was selected purely arbitrarily. This was a conscious effort by a nation-state to attempt to achieve a specific effect,” he said.

    I am no fan of NSA shenanigans, and I am eternally grateful to Edward Snowden for letting us all know about at least some of the shenanigans in question. But I’m hard-pressed to see an ulterior motive for Rogers here. The budget and mission—for good and ill—of the intelligence community are a couple of the things in the American government that can safely be said not to be under existential threat from the incoming administration. Rogers isn’t protecting his turf or his budget because nobody’s coming after them.

    Related Story

     

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    This Story Should Dominate the News Cycle

     

    If he doesn’t trust Vladimir Putin, I don’t blame him. Neither do I, and I will remain an angry skeptic on the subject of an innocent Trump-Putin connection until the president-elect releases enough of his financial documents to convince me that he’s not in hock to the Russian oligarch or his bankers. The fact that Putin has been playing footsie with nationalist movements all over Europe doesn’t fill me with optimism, either. Christ, there’s even one starting up in Ireland now, although its official launch party in Dublin on Wednesday was canceled because the hotel it had booked for the launch bailed on it. From The Irish Times:

    The National Party had circulated a short press release earlier this week informing media of an event due to take place at the five-star hotel situated across from Government Buildings at 3pm on Thursday. A spokeswoman for the Merrion said it has now cancelled the booking, but refused to give a reason for why this was done. The National Party claims that it wants to “remind the political elites and the general commentariat… of the extent to which the promise presented by the Proclamation of the Republic remains unfulfilled”. It cited the Irish economy’s “unsustainable debt”, the “unrestricted policy of immigration to the point of population displacement” and “the blood lust of extremist groups to remove the equal right to life of the unborn child” in its release.

    How perilous a time this is for the world is only beginning to be understood.

    Related Story

     

     

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    How Russian Spies Hacked This Election