Tag: Politics

By Katinka Barysch

Turkey’s election in 2007 was preceded by threats of a military coup. The 2002 one was overshadowed by an economic meltdown. This year’s poll, scheduled for June 12, could have signaled a move toward political normality.

However, a nasty tape scandal and a flare-up of violence in the Kurdish southeast have not only poisoned the political atmosphere but also fueled allegations that the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) wants to grab ever more power.

Polls have left little doubt that the AKP will win its third consecutive election in June as voters reward Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan for presiding over years of economic growth, relative political stability and Turkey’s growing international stature.

But Erdogan wants not only to stay in government, he wants to gain enough seats in the Parliament to push through a new constitution without having to compromise with the opposition. Since the AKP’s share of the vote stands at around 43-45 percent, Erdogan can hope for a supermajority only if the smaller of the two main opposition parties, the rightist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) fails to pass the 10 percent bar for entry to the parliament.

Once commended for his initiatives to make up with Armenia and to give Turkey’s Kurds more minority rights, Erdogan has now adopted a nationalist tone to lure voters away from the MHP.

His chances of doing so seemed to increase in late May when videos appeared on the Internet showing leading MHP politicians in compromising situations. There is no indication that the AKP was involved, but the fact is that the party could be the main beneficiary.

Meanwhile, the electoral commission sought to bar a handful of leading Kurdish politicians from running, which led to widespread demonstrations in the southeast and raised doubts how many seats the Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) would be able to gain.

——Erdogan moving to the right

While Erdogan is moving to the right, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the main opposition party, the nationalist-secularist People’s Republican Party (CHP) is trying a different gamble. Rather than accusing the AKP of seeking to Islamize Turkey, Kilicdaroglu has campaigned on economic opening and social safety. He has even mooted more autonomy for the Kurdish regions – something that may not go down well with the CHP’s traditional electorate. Against the background of scandals, violence and shifting party programs, it is hard to predict whether Erdogan’s reach for a supermajority will succeed. For the sake of Turkish democracy, it would be better if it did not.

Turkey does need a new, more democratic constitution. But if the AKP gains 330 of the 550 seats, it will be able to push through a constitutional draft without support from the opposition and put it straight to a referendum.

(If the AKP gained 367 seats, it could even to adopt the constitution in a parliamentary vote.) A “one-party” constitution would lead to further divisions in Turkey’s already-polarized political system. The opposition parties, together representing half of Turkey’s electorate, might well boycott a constitutional process dominated by the AKP.

Even among AKP supporters there might not be much debate: Erdogan has single-handedly struck 220 of the current 334 AKP MPs off the candidates’ list and replaced them with little-known loyalists. In a party that was once proud of its local roots, the top-down sweep has left many members cross.

Many observers suspect that Erdogan’s main objective in the new constitution is to move Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential system along French lines. Already, the AKP has amended the current Constitution so that future presidents will no longer be elected by Parliament but by the people. The new constitution would presumably give the presidency bigger powers, commensurate with its popular mandate. Most Turks expect that Erdogan himself will want to become president when Abdullah Gul’s term expires.

In Turkey’s already highly centralized system, a move toward a presidential system does not look like a good idea. It could lead either to rivalry and paralysis between a strengthened president and a traditionally powerful prime minister, both backed by a popular mandate. Or it could further erode checks and balances and reinforce autocratic tendencies.

In either case, Turkey’s chances of getting through its daunting to-do list, from improving the judiciary to creating jobs for an eager young population, would diminish. So would its hopes of entering the European Union, which would require a strengthening of democracy and many of economic and legal reforms.

Various scandals and local violence should not distract from the fact that Turkey’s future might be at stake at this election.

***Katinka Barysch is deputy director of the Center for European Reform in London

via tehran times : Turkey’s electoral choice.

Commenting on Erdogan’s approach to the developments in the Middle East, the program said the Turkish premier’s stance against Israel had made him a hero both for Turks and Arabs

The Qatar-based international news network Al Jazeera has broadcast a documentary about Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Al Jazeera’s documentary, which opened with images from one of Erdogan’s election rallies in Turkey, gave brief information about the Turkish prime minister’s family, childhood, education, years as a football player, marriage and political life.

Pointing to Erdogan’s success as the mayor of Istanbul, the documentary said the prime minister had started attracting attention as a new leader during those years.

Commenting on Erdogan’s approach to the developments in the Middle East, the program said the Turkish premier’s stance against Israel had made him a hero both for Turks and Arabs.

Referring to Erdogan’s storming off the stage at a World Economic Forum meeting in Davos in 2009 after a heated discussion over the situation in Gaza, the TV channel said Erdogan had been greeted with great appreciation upon his return from Davos.

The network said a Lebanese national had even named his new-born after Erdogan due to the premier’s stance.

Al Jazeera is an independent broadcaster headquartered in Doha, Qatar. Initially launched as an Arabic news and current affairs satellite TV channel, Al Jazeera has since expanded into a network with several outlets, including the Internet and specialty TV channels in multiple languages.

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Turkey’s upcoming general election will be held on 12th of June 2011. AKP (Development and Justice Party) established two governments since 2002, and is the ruling party since then.

Despite the claims of the ruling party, the country is facing hard times. Poverty, unemployment, Kurt issue, abridgment of freedom of speech, decadence and indecency in politics, led Turkey into a deep crisis, but the ruling party is pressuring the citizens with the claim of stability.

The main principles of Turkish constitiution, that Turkey is a secular and democratic republic, is at stake since many people are afraid of the secularism of Turkey is in danger. In the spring of 2007, millions who shared the concern that Turkey’s politics are getting conservative, rallied to defend Turkey’s secular democrasy. Neglecting the concerns and fears of many people, State minister and Deputy minister Bulent Arinc, recently declared that, the main thing that keeps Turkish people together is not secularism but the religion Islam. This comment made people even more worried, since it compromises the basis of Turkish foundation which depends on secularism as a guarentee of the protection of different point of views and beliefs.

AKP’s enforcements such as, the new polemical regulation of internet filtering, the alcohol ban in events, festivals and organisations where young people under 24 attend with the claim that the aim of protecting young people from alcoholism, are some proofs that disclose the ruling party’s oppressive mentality. Turkey’s top administrative court recently cancelled the alcohol ban, since the law sets for drinking age as 18 and not 24.

About the internet restrictions, when the Turkish Industry and Business Association (TUSIAD), declared their concerns, the Deputy minister Bulent Arinc accused TUSIAD of being an unreliable organisation, and by adressing the chairman of TUSIAD, Umit Boyner, said that, “they can liberate porn sites and sites which contain violence, when they have the charge”. Umit Boyner in her written press release, declared that she found Deputy Minister’s attitude as terrifying. It seems that the voice of Turkish people who stands for their individual rights such as freedom of speech, is taken by government as being a fan of porn and violence.

Freedom of press in Turkey is not pleasant at all. Many journalists are in jail in Turkey mainly because of the “anti-terror” law. International Press Institute, in its press release on 4th April, 2011, mentioned the report of OSCE (Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe) which indicates that at least 57 journalist are being held in prison. On 13th April 2011, at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), reffering to the reporter Ahmet Sik’s being held at prison because of his “unpublished book”, Prime Minister Erdogan responded PACE members’ questions about freedom of speech in Turkey, in outrage, claiming that “It is a crime to use a bomb, but it is also a crime to use materials from which a bomb is made. If informed that all materials needed to construct a bomb have been placed in a certain location, wouldn’t the security forces collect these materials?”. The Prime Minister of Turkey in 21st century, basically compared a book with a bomb.

When it comes to political decency, Turkey represents a failure. Before 2011 elections, opposing parties had to deal with sex tape scandals. On 2010 Deniz Baykal, the former leader of the opposing party CHP (The Republican People’s Party), resigned because of a tape that he claimed to be a conspiracy. And now the other opposing party MHP (Nationalist Action Party) is facing the same issues and the scandal caused 10 resignations inside the party during May. This scandal also resulted by the ban of more websites such as Rapidshare.

One of the main problems that Turkey comes face to face with every time, is the regulation of general election in Turkey, since every party has to take the 10% of the votes in order to enter the parliament. That means, according to the results of last election, approximately 11% of the electors could not be represented in the parliament. It is clear that Turkey needs a brand new constitution which has to bring new regulations, such as the general election law, the parliamentary immunity, the anti-terror law, and many others.

Turkey’s one of the biggest issue, Kurt issue has to be solved, approaching to the case with neither Turkish nor Kurdish nationalism. A deeper action must be taken by improving the individual rights and conditions, and by taking into account people’s prosperity without dividing them as Turks and Kurts.

There’s an urge to take a further step for Turkey’s democracy challenge. The tendency of ruling party’s using religion as a tool, is transforming the country’s modern and democratic face into a conservative and oprresive mentality. The main issues of Turkey should be discussed despite the manipulations of politicians. As a country in between, Turkey has to recognise its innermost problems and stand for most basic rights, without having the fear of unstability as the ruling party claims. People in Turkey do not have to live in such nonsense, or compromise the basic rights, just to sustain stability. Who knows, “chaos” could lead us to a better life.

via Democracy Challenge of a Country in Between: Turkey Before 2011 Elections | Toonari Post – Connecting Global News and People.

from The World In 2006 print edition

The prospect of Turkey’s membership of the European Union has been one of the most debated subjects in Europe in 2005. This is understandable, given the far-reaching ramifications of Turkish membership, which go well beyond the bilateral and regional confines of the issue. What lies ahead, in 2006 and beyond? In order to make a credible assessment of what awaits us, it might be useful first to take a quick look back in time, so that Turkey’s achievements and potential can be put into proper perspective.

Since its foundation, the Republic of Turkey has always sought to become a constructive and responsible member of the international community, working to promote an environment of peace and prosperity. To this end, beyond forging institutional links with the West, including its membership of the Council of Europe, NATO and the OECD, Turkey has aimed, since the late 1950s, also to become part of the grander European vision that is now embodied in the EU.

Consequently, Turkey became an associate member of the European Economic Community (as the EU was then called) in 1963, with the mutually agreed objective of eventual full membership. And since 1996 Turkey has been in a customs union with the EU, an arrangement that no other candidate country had prior to membership.

What Turkey promises to deliver is all too important for the EU to forgo, especially in view of the global role the European Union sees for itself in the 21st century

In this time we mobilised significant political, economic and social resources in order to meet the democratic aspirations of the Turkish people, and our EU perspective has certainly added strength to this process. For example, in 1999, when European leaders officially reconfirmed Turkey’s status as a candidate country destined to become a full member of the Union, Turkey further expedited its reform process in order to fulfil the criteria needed to start the accession negotiations.

As a result, in recognition of Turkey’s success with reforms, the EU started accession negotiations with Turkey in October 2005. We are now in the process of preparing Turkey, and the EU for that matter, for the final steps towards membership. And there is no doubt that, during the rather long journey ahead, the successful conclusion of this process will necessitate even more efforts on both sides.

For its part, Turkey is determined to advance along the path of modernisation and reform. This is because attaining the highest political, economic and social standards remains the overriding national objective of the Turkish people. Indeed, the extraordinary scope and pace of reforms, especially in the past few years, which have put Turkey on an irreversible track of progress, could not have been possible without the overwhelming support of the Turkish public.

Now it is of great importance for the EU also to act in line with its commitments, to demonstrate solidarity with Turkey and to exert all the necessary efforts to sustain and advance the accession process on its own merits. Given the potential that Turkey’s EU membership holds for both sides—and the world in general—our relationship deserves no less.

A bridge to the wider world

Indeed, what Turkey promises to deliver is all too important for the EU to forgo, especially in view of the global role the European Union sees for itself in the 21st century. Turkey’s membership will add substance to Europe’s own vision of unity in diversity, giving the Union greater reach and making it easier for it to act as an effective player in world affairs. The significance of Turkey as a facilitator for bringing together cultures and civilisations—helping to spread universal values to a broader geography—is now more widely recognised, particularly after the attacks on America of September 11th 2001 and other terrorist acts that continue to threaten us all.

Turkey’s membership of the EU will certainly amplify the role my country plays in bridging different regions and cultures. Our membership will demonstrate to the world at large that a civilisational fault-line exists not among religions or cultures but between democracy, modernity and reformism on the one side and totalitarianism, radicalism and lethargy on the other. In this context, it is most revealing to see the interest shown by the Muslim world, both at the intellectual and the popular level, in Turkey’s reform process and its progress towards EU membership.

The demographic and economic outlook for Turkey also points to an advantage for the EU, by the time Turkey is expected to accede. The EU faces the prospect of a rapidly ageing population in the years to come, which will represent a significant challenge for the European economy. Turkey can help. One of the most striking features of our economic potential is the high rate of growth that Turkey has achieved and the fact that we expect our growth will continue to lie above the OECD average well into the next decade. Looking to the future, the accession talks and eventual EU membership present us with ample opportunity to harness this potential in a mutually beneficial way, through more investments, trade and co-operation.

In light of all this, it is clear that we have in our hands a truly common agenda to guide us in the years to come. Now it is incumbent upon us all to remain true to its promise. After all, those who help Turkey and the European Union progress along this journey will have the proud distinction of having contributed to what is surely history in the making.

from The World In 2006 print edition

via Europe: Turkey’s historic journey | The Economist.

Supporters of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend a rally in Ankara on May 29, 2011, ahead of June 12 elections

In theory, the countdown to Turkey’s June 12 elections ought to be a quiet affair. There’s little doubt over who will win — polls show incumbent Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan poised to win a third term with a comfortable 42% to 48% of the vote. Yet, every day brings news of more violence on the campaign trail. A retired teacher died Monday after riot police tear-gassed an anti-Erdogan rally; a day later in the capital, Ankara, police beat a young protester and broke her hip. Ostensibly at the height of his popularity, Erdogan has also become one of the most divisive figures in Turkish history.

Tall, broad-shouldered and a powerful orator who often sounds like a preacher, Erdogan has over the past eight years left a mark on Turkey unrivaled among his contemporaries. Most notably, he stripped the military of its long-standing role as the sinister arbiter of power behind the scenes of Turkish democracy. For the first time in Turkey’s history, generals accused of plotting a coup have been jailed. Erdogan steered the country away from its enduring — and unrequited — obsession with the E.U., and toward a leadership role in the Middle East, independently and sometimes at odds with its long-standing U.S. patron. At home, per capita income has nearly doubled during the Erdogan era — Turkey had the world’s second fastest-growing economy after China last year. (See photos of the streets of Istanbul.)

Still, the former soccer player’s with-us-or-against-us style of politics has been deeply polarizing. Much like socially conservative Republicans in the U.S., the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, has a values agenda that alienates much of the traditionally European-oriented secular middle classes. Women should have three children, says Erdogan. Facebook is an “ugly technology” because it allows “immoral” content. Turkey’s alcohol taxes are now among the highest in Europe, and the government has tried to ban people younger than 24 from places where liquor is sold. Thousands of websites are currently banned, while a controversial new law slated for August will require Turks to use one of four state-regulated filters to go online.

Under Erdogan, the police have become increasingly powerful and are allegedly dominated by members of a tightly knit religious brotherhood headed by the controversial Pennsylvania-based imam Fethullah Gulen. Two internationally acclaimed journalists investigating the brotherhood were detained and jailed in March and have yet to be tried. Journalists now assume that their phones are tapped — public leaks of private conversations have become commonplace. Earlier this month, a spate of sex tapes were released online showing senior members of a far-right opposition party in bed with women who were not their wives. Ten politicians resigned, casting doubt over the party’s ability to cross a 10% national vote threshold on June 12 — if it fails to do so, those votes would go to the AKP, prompting speculation that the tapes were released in line with an agenda to boost the ruling party’s power.

The rapid economic growth of the past decade has led to often brutal environmental desecration. Thousands of villagers along Turkey’s verdant Black Sea and Aegean coasts have organized in protest against government plans to build hundreds of power plants on rivers that will upset ecological balances. Erdogan brands these groups “bandits.” He is similarly dismissive of opponents of plans to build the country’s first nuclear power plant in an earthquake-prone area — even though polls show a majority of Turks are concerned. (See how Turkey unites over basketball, if not over the new constitution.)

“He sees himself as a people’s hero,” wrote Ahmet Hakan, a popular columnist for the Hurriyet daily. “That’s why he thinks he can lay down the law. He no longer pays any attention to critics in the media or intellectuals who object to his rhetoric. He doesn’t care because he knows that those people don’t translate into numbers and that his power of influence is now greater than theirs.”

The question in the election is not whether Erdogan will win, but whether his party will gain the legislative supermajority that would allow it to pass laws without the need to compromise with other parties in order to win their support. And the answer to that question will shape the future of Turkish democracy. All parties agree that Turkey needs a new constitution to replace the current, less-than-democratic document drafted under the supervision of generals after a 1980 coup. But if Erdogan secures more than 330 out of 550 seats, it would allow him to draft a constitution based on his own vision, with no need to compromise. He has made little secret of his plans to concentrate executive power in a French- or Russian-style presidency, which would also allow him to seek another two terms in power. (Turkey’s presidency is currently a largely symbolic position, like those of Germany or Italy.)

“It would be better for the country if he gets less than 330 votes,” says Sahin Alpay, a politics professor at Bahcesehir University. “That would give Erdogan the message that if he wants to resolve the country’s issues, he needs to work together with opposition parties. If he gets more than 330, he will attempt to do this on his own, based on his principles, which will not be healthy.” (See why Syria and Turkey are far apart on the Arab Spring protests.)

Erdogan is not by nature a consensus builder. But he finally has a serious challenger in the shape of Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a former bureaucrat with a strong anticorruption record who has revitalized the main opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP, and made it more inclusive of minorities like the Kurds. The CHP is currently running at 25% to 28% of the vote. The question is whether, come June 12, Turkish voters can force the two men to work together.

See TIME’s special report “The Middle East in Revolt.”

See the world’s most influential people in the 2011 TIME 100.

(Reuters) – Turks vote in a an election on June 12 with confidence boosted both by having one of the world’s fastest growing economies, and by belief that their democracy has finally consigned military coups to the past.

Reforms undertaken by Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan’s AK Party since it came to power in 2002 appear to have broken the cycles of financial and political crises that have punctuated Turkey’s development.

The AK’s success, Erdogan’s dominance and the weaknesses of the opposition mean the only uncertainty really hanging over the election result is the margin of victory.

But there are plenty of issues at stake in this complicated, overwhelmingly Muslim nation of 74 million people, clinging to its ambition of European Union membership.

If the AK, which emerged a decade ago from banned Islamist parties, wins a two-thirds majority it would make it a lot easier for Erdogan to push through a planned new constitution.

Here is a brief run down on the main issues for the AK, the secular opposition, nationalists and the Kurdish minority;

THE ECONOMY

For Turks in work it must seem like the good times will never stop judging by the amount of money they are borrowing, and what they spend it on — new homes, cars, foreign holidays.

Inflation is at record lows. The economy grew 8.9 percent last year, and is expected to exceed 4.5 percent this year.

Unemployment has fallen to 11 percent, low by Turkey’s standards. Youth unemployment is higher at 20 percent — not good for a country where the average age is 28 years.

However a record current account deficit is a worry. Analysts say it could reach 8 percent of GDP this year.

They also say interest rates, kept low despite runaway growth and a credit boom, will need to go up and the government should tighten up fiscally, too.

 

THE KURDISH PROBLEM

An insurgency has blighted Turkey’s southeast since the early 1980s as ethnic Kurds — who account for up to 15 million of Turkey’s population — turned militant to fight for rights.

More than 40,000 people have been killed and the scars run deep on both sides of the conflict.

Erdogan took a risk in 2009 by announcing an initiative to increase Kurds’ cultural rights, including the establishment of a Kurdish language television and university courses. Uncertain of public support, Erdogan failed to sustain reforms in the face of opposition from nationalists in his own party and outside.

Since then on-off ceasefires by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) rebels over the past year gave some respite, but violence has picked up ahead of the election. A mass trial of Kurdish politicians accused of militant links has added to tensions.

Jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan has threatened “a big war” unless the state opens talks by mid-June to end the conflict.

In the southeast, Erdogan’s AK party runs second to the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), regarded as close to the PKK. If the BDP candidates do well in the polls, it would support the case for doing something sooner rather than later.

SECULAR STATE, MUSLIM NATION

The secular state is the legacy of soldier statesman Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, who founded the modern Turkish republic in 1923 out of the ashes of the Ottoman empire.

Erdogan says the state will remain secular, though the roots of his AK party lie in Islamist parties that were banned.

Liberal in economic policy and conservative on social issues, the AK is sometimes cast as a Muslim version of Europe’s Christian Democrat parties. Since coming to power in 2002, the AK has not passed much in the way of major legislation to suggest an Islamist agenda, but secularists pounce on every perceived encroachment to fan fears.

The AK tried and failed in 2007 to lift a ban on women wearing the Muslim headscarf entering university or getting a state job. Since then some universities have taken a more relaxed stance, and the AK is expect to try again to end a headscarf ban it regards as anti-democratic and discriminatory.

 

DEMOCRACY, FREEDOM AND CONSTITUTION

The AK has cast itself as a champion of democracy, having succeeded in reducing the powers of the military through reforms meant to bring Turkey closer to EU membership.

Erdogan aims to rewrite the constitution and make a clean break with a charter written under military tutelage in 1982.

He says the new charter will bolster democracy and pluralism in Turkey. Critics fear it will be an AK version of democracy.

The opposition accuses the AK of having a secret agenda, and says it is taking control of all the centres of power, including, significantly, the judiciary.

The AK, and indeed the EU’s European Commission, says reform of the judiciary, undertaken last year through constitutional amendments, was needed to strengthen democracy, as senior judges and prosecutors were seen protecting old secularist elites.

The opposition accuses the AK of cowing media critics. Dogan Yayin, Turkey’s biggest media group, was hobbled by massive tax fines that drew European Commission criticism. Dogan managed to cut the fines sharply through a tax amnesty and court appeals.

The jailing of journalists in an investigation of an alleged network of secularists conspiring to topple the government in recent months also raised fears over press freedom in Turkey.

THE EU

The AK gained plenty of kudos from launching Turkey’s European Union accession process in 2005. Turks enthusiasm for EU membership was a plus for the AK going into the 2007 election, but this time its almost a non-issue.

Major EU states, France and Germany, are reluctant to admit Turkey, a large Muslim nation with a substantial number of people still living in economically backward areas.

Turkey’s government still makes EU membership a top priority, while noting public disenchantment. Looking at their own booming economy, many Turks now wonder what they would gain by joining a 27-nation bloc given the eurozone’s debt woes. (Writing by Simon Cameron-Moore; Editing by Ralph Boulton)