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Turkey forced Israeli to blink–’freezes’ $56 billion defense deals
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Posted on June 21, 2010 by The Editors
Turkey has the leverage of financial pressure and it is surely using it on Tel Aviv. Israelis understand the concept of money, and Ankara is pushing all the right buttons, hitting them hard where it matters. The question being asked in diplomatic circles is, will the financial pressure on the military industrial complex of Israel force a change in Mr. Natenyahu’s policy towards the Palestinians? Israel has never had to face this sort of economic pressure in its history. The US and Western Europe cannot make up $56 billion and other ongoing losses. Will it force Tel Aviv to pause and think? The Israeli military is hard pressed to find alternate places to get information on Iran. The fiasco with the Turks is costing them a lot of money at a time when they are facing international approbation.

Turkey is reported to have frozen at least 16 arms deals with Israel worth an estimated $56 billion

Contracts were suspended after the Israeli government refused to apologize for the May 31 killing of nine Turks

Just a matter of time before Ankara officially froze all defense deals with Israel

Turkish President Abdullah Gul has warned that Ankara would not rule out breaking off diplomatic ties if three demands — an international probe, a public Israeli apology and lifting the three-year-old blockade on Gaza — are not met.

“If the United States cannot be relied upon to pressure Israel on meeting these demands, Ankara will have to find some lever to do so itself,” the U.S.-based global security consultancy Stratfor observed in an analysis Tuesday.

“One such lever may be military and intelligence cooperation, which Israel has historically relied upon.

In all probability, there will be intense pressure on the government of Mr. Natenyahu to crawl back on the steadfast positions that it has taken. Israeli has already loosened the embargo, and if President Obama is to place additional pressure, the military will force Mr. Natenyahu to retreat, apologize, and work it out with the Turks. The change in two intelligence chiefs within a few weeks have raised eyebrows in Turkey. First the Afghan President removed the Pro-Indian chief of the Afghan Intelligence Services (RAMA), and the Turks appointed the 42 year old Hakan Fidan who has been a close adviser to Erdogan and his foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu. Hakan Fidan was named chief of the Milli Istihbarat Teskilati, Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization, known as MIT. Both are considered the architect of Erdogan’s expansionist policy, for several years. Hakan Fidan is viewed with deep suspicion by Israel for several reasons, one of which is that he was formulated the uranium transfer deal between Turkey, Brazil and Iran proposed in May. Turkey voted against the sanctions on Iran.

TEL AVIV, Israel, June 18 — Turkey is reported to have frozen at least 16 arms deals with Israel worth an estimated $56 billion, including missile projects and upgrading combat aircraft and tanks, in a major escalation of its confrontation with the Jewish state.

The Turkish newspaper Today’s Zaman reported Friday that the contracts were suspended after the Israeli government refused to apologize for the May 31 killing of nine Turks when Israeli naval commandos stormed the Mavi Marmara, a Turkish-flagged vessel carrying humanitarian aid to the blockaded Gaza Strip.

There was no official confirmation of the report in either Israel or Turkey. But relations between the two former allies have been crumbling since Turkey’s Islamist prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, ferociously denounced Israel’s invasion of the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip Dec. 27, 2008.

The Israeli daily Haaretz quoted defense ministry sources as saying it was probably just a matter of time before Ankara officially froze all defense deals with Israel.

On Monday, state-run Israel Aerospace Industries, flagship of the Jewish state’s defense industry, and Elbit Systems ordered all their engineers, flight instructors and other employees based in Turkey to return home.

Haaretz said the 16 projects being frozen include a $5 billion contract for 1,000 Merkava Mark III main battle tanks designed by Israel Military Industries — the Israeli army is equipping with Merkava Mark IV models — a $50 million upgrade of Turkey’s M-60 tanks, an $800 million deal for two Israeli patrol aircraft and an Airborne Warning and Control System jet.

Turkey was also planning a $625.5 million deal for 54 McDonnell Douglas F-4E Phantom strike aircraft to be upgraded to Phantom 2020 standard, and a $75 million program to upgrade 48 of the air force’s 87 Northrop F-5/F-5B fighter-bombers as lead-in trainers.

Relations nosedived in October 2009 when Turkey canceled Israel’s participation in NATO air exercises. Turkey complained that IAI had delayed delivery of six of 10 Heron long-range unmanned aerial vehicles ordered by the Turkish military in a $185 million 2005 contract.

Last April, Jane’s Defense Weekly reported that the Israel defense ministry froze the sale of advanced military platforms to Turkey because of mounting anti-Israeli rhetoric from Erdogan’s government.

The ministry’s foreign defense assistance and export procurement department also decided to review all Turkish requests for military equipment on a case-by-case basis.

Turkey has been a major importer of Israeli military hardware and defense expertise since the two countries signed a military cooperation pact in 1996.

That landmark alliance between the two major non-Arab military powers in the Middle East dramatically changed the region’s strategic landscape.

Israeli pilots trained in Turkey and, according to some reports, Israel set up intelligence-gathering stations on Turkey’s borders with Syria and Iran.

In the past, the Turks had preserved military cooperation with Israel, particularly the arms deals and joint exercises that formed the core of their strategic alliance, even when treatment of the Palestinians stirred widespread anger among Turkey’s overwhelmingly Muslim population.

But the May 31 killings, and Israel’s dogged refusal to acknowledge responsibility for the bloodletting, has incensed the Turkish nation.

The Financial Times quoted Namik Tan, Turkey’s ambassador to the United States, as saying Ankara could be forced to sever all ties with Israel, although he stressed: “We don’t want this to go to that point.”

The unraveling of military links, including intelligence-sharing that Israeli leaders valued extremely highly because of Turkey’s proximity to Iran, underlined the seriousness of the current confrontation.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has said he does not trust Israel to carry out an impartial review of the May 31 incident, rather than be subjected to an international investigation.

Turkish President Abdullah Gul has warned that Ankara would not rule out breaking off diplomatic ties if three demands — an international probe, a public Israeli apology and lifting the three-year-old blockade on Gaza — are not met.

“If the United States cannot be relied upon to pressure Israel on meeting these demands, Ankara will have to find some lever to do so itself,” the U.S.-based global security consultancy Stratfor observed in an analysis Tuesday.

“One such lever may be military and intelligence cooperation, which Israel has historically relied upon. Turkey has already downgraded cooperation and rumors have surfaced that Israeli intelligence operatives may be expelled from a radar post on Turkish soil near the border with Iran.” (UPI)

AS IF anticipating its next capitulation, government spokesmen told the media that in addition to ending economic sanctions on Gaza, Israel is now considering permitting the EU to station inspectors at its land crossings into Gaza.

That is, Israel is considering a move that will constitute a first step towards surrendering its sovereign control over its borders.

According to sources close to the cabinet, the main advocate for the latest capitulation was Defense Minister Ehud Barak. Jerusalem Post

The liberal Israeli newspaper Haaretz reports that Tel Aviv has not yet felt the full effect of the Gaza flotilla. According to the newspaper, Israel will soon face more flotillas, even if the departure of ships from Lebanon is being delayed for now as a result of pressure by the U.S. and EU on Beirut.

The Harretz says that the showdown has forced Israel’s hand. “The cabinet’s decision Sunday to ease the blockade on the Gaza Strip means, for the most part, an end to the siege on Hamas’ rule in the territory. And it’s more than a victory on points for Hamas and the Turkish government. It’s a genuine achievement for what is described as the muqawama (the resistance ) – the radical alliance of Iran, Syria, Hamas, Hezbollah, and recently also Turkey”.

Haaretz feels that Israel will face a lot more pressure. “On the strategic level, all the bad effects of the flotilla have not been accounted for yet. In the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority reversed its decision to hold municipal elections, fearing that the Israeli interdiction of the flotilla would boost Hamas’ popularity. On the border with the Gaza Strip, the Rafah crossing is open most of the time because Egypt did not want to look like it was collaborating with Israel. Hamas, meanwhile, believes that it has found new strategic depth in the form of Turkey; the group’s behavior over the past three years had completely lost it support in Cairo.

For all these reasons, we must assume that Israel will soon face more flotillas, even if the departure of ships from Lebanon is being delayed for now as a result of pressure by the United States and European Union on Beirut.” Jerusalem Post.

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Filed under: Current Affairs | Tagged: Hakan Fidan, Turkish-Israeli relations

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One Response

Levo, on June 21, 2010 at 11:52 pm Said:

Turkey may be the only nation capable of rehabilitating the (unofficially) rogue nation of Israel!

Turkey asserted itself as the new sherriff in town and tiny Israel will have to take notice from now on. It will be far more difficult for Israel to have a free hand in massacering defenseless Palestinian civilia
June 23, 2010
Poll Shows Muslims Leery of U.S.

By LAURA STEVENS

BERLIN—President Barack Obama and the U.S. are increasingly unpopular in the Muslim world, according to a 22-nation survey released Thursday.

The Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project found that Muslim nations hold an overwhelmingly negative view of the U.S., with only 17% of those surveyed in Turkey, Pakistan and Egypt expressing a positive view—a five-year low for the Egyptians.

Mr. Obama has also lost support, with every single Islamic country’s Muslim residents reporting a decline in confidence. Only 8% of Pakistani Muslims express faith in him, compared with 13% last year. Even Turkey, a NATO ally, saw confidence drop to 23% from 33%.

The results suggest that the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan and its presence in Iraq continue to weigh on the Muslim world’s opinion of the U.S.

Many Muslims don’t just disagree with Washington’s foreign policy, they also view the U.S. as a threat, the survey found.

Outside the Muslim world, positive perceptions of the U.S. jumped in 2009 after Mr. Obama took office, and they remained high in 2010. In France, 73% said they had a favorable view of the U.S., while 63% said the same in Germany.

The survey, created in 2001, was conducted in more than 24,000 telephone and face-to-face interviews from April 7 to May 8.

Public opinion of the U.S. had already begun to shift to a more-positive opinion for the second term of the Bush administration among Europeans, but under the Obama administration, it leaped to the positive side, said Ingo Peters, a political science professor at the Free University Berlin who specializes in trans-Atlantic relationships.

“His new approach of listening to people, his different wordings, his openness in terms of listening, and taking into account what the other side says is received very gratefully, especially in Germany and in other European nations,” said Dr. Peters, who isn’t affiliated with the Pew survey. Nearly 90% of Germans surveyed said they approve of Mr. Obama’s policies.

In every country except for China, at least half the citizens said they were unsatisfied with their own country’s condition, but in the U.S. that number was 70% of Americans. Only China, Brazil, India and Poland thought their economic conditions were good. Citizens hold their governments, banks and themselves responsible for those conditions.

U.S. foreign policy continues to be seen as unilateral by the world, which also means that a median 32% of those surveyed thought that the U.S. considers other countries’ interests, up from 26% in 2007.

Write to Laura Stevens at laura.stevens@wsj.com

June 23, 2010
World misses new report on mullahs’ nuclear capability

GABRIEL: Master puppeteers

World misses new report on mullahs’ nuclear capability

By Brigitte Gabriel

6:00 p.m., Friday, June 18, 2010

Illustration: Free Gaza by Alexander Hunter for The Washington Times

While world media and political attention is focused on the Israel-“Freedom Flotilla” incident, Iranian mullahs in Tehran are celebrating their brilliant war strategy in advancing their nuclear program. As world-renowned masters of the game of chess, Iranian mullahs can add “strategic marketing, public relations and media planning” to their resume.

Iran, anticipating a damning report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) revealing Iran has more than 2 tons of enriched uranium (two warheads’ worth), had been actively working with Israel’s enemies to divert world attention away from the alarming findings. The IAEA report, released on May 31, the day of the raid, was virtually unreported by the media, as all eyes had turned to Israel and Gaza.

Iran is manipulating operations in the Middle East and building alliances with like-minded jihadists driven by the same goal. Iran’s strategic operations surrounding Israel include setting up bases of operation and creating controlled and planned conflicts as part of a bigger strategy not only to suffocate Israel but also to distract the world community from its own nuclear development plans.

Iran began building its base in Lebanon in 1982 with the creation of Hezbollah. By combining nearly 10 Islamic terror groups that shared the same ideology as Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Iran created a proxy Iranian army on Israel’s northern border. After the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, Iran seized the opportunity to extend a helping hand to Hamas, a Sunni group that shares the Iranian Shi’ite leadership’s aspiration to wipe Israel off the map.

As evidenced by weapons and material recovered from the ship MV Francop in November 2009, Iran is not a stranger to using the high seas as a way to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah and Hamas.

Iran has been working with North Korea, Syria, China and Russia and is actively courting Turkey to create a counterbalance to American power in the Middle East. A Russian submarine flying an Iranian flag docked in Beirut last month, where what is believed to be chemical weapons were unloaded by people wearing “hazmat” or chemical warfare suits. Syria, working with Iran, has supplied Hezbollah with Scud missiles able to reach all of Israel. Iran’s plans for Israel are as clear as the writing on the wall.

This summer could easily reprise the war of 2006, when Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon opened a two-front confrontation against Israel, sparked by Hamas’ and Hezbollah’s kidnapping of Israeli soldiers. The conflict dragged Israel into an all-out war with Lebanon, and Iran and Syria were content to pull the puppet strings.

As a result of the flotilla incident, a Syrian television show already has called for suicide bombers to attack Israel; the head of the Palestinian Islamic council on Lebanon is calling for the kidnapping of Israelis; the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is calling for withdrawal from the Arab Peace Initiative; and the Muslim Union of Islamic scholars is calling for the cancellation of all peace agreements with Israel.

And who is talking about the IAEA report of Iran having two nuclear warheads’ worth of enriched uranium? Virtually nobody.

Score: Iran: 1, Israel/America/IAEA, 0.

You can hear the laughter all the way from Tehran.

The flotilla incident is nothing more than a spark in a larger web of explosives set and organized by Iran and is the first step toward accomplishing Iran’s ultimate goals. First, create whatever distraction is necessary, preferably one that inflames world hatred of Israel, to buy time to finish the bomb. Second, attain the bomb and become the Islamic superpower of the world, with the ability to wipe Israel off the map. This will usher in a new era of hegemony in the Middle East.

The stakes are high, and time is running out. Western governments must stand together against Iran and the new axis of tyrannical power that is developing. While it is Israel that will soon face a nuclear-armed Iran, in the long term, it will be Europe and America facing an Iran capable of projecting its totalitarian ideology across the globe.

Brigitte Gabriel is author of “Because They Hate” and “They Must Be Stopped” (St. Martin’s Press, 2006 and 2008). She is the president of ActforAmerica.org.

© Copyright 2010 The Washington Times, LLC. Click here for reprint permission.

Comments

JohnMD1022 says:

3 days, 15 hours ago

Mark as offensive

Don’t expect the Mohammedan in Chief to do anything to upset his brother Musselmen. It’s all OK with him. After all, they have just as much right to possess nuclear weapons as if they were legitimate, civilized nations. It makes no difference what they say. That’s just rhetoric. Under all the brusque talk Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is really a nice fellow and quite moderate. Methinks another round of obescience would be quite in order.

Grand Mufti Barack Obama, Mohammedan in Chief, United Caliphate of America

June 23, 2010
Iran and Turkey: Friends Today, Rivals Tomorrow?

Monday, 21 June 2010 23:37

Written by RFE/RL

0 Comments

By Robert Tait (RFE/RL) -- It is the friendship Western policymakers wish they could have prevented: Turkey -- secular, Western-leaning, and a key member of NATO -- drawing close to a resurgent theocratic Iran whose nuclear program and geopolitical ambitions present a full-frontal challenge to the established international order. Suspicions that Turkey is abandoning the Western orbit for a closer alignment with its Muslim Middle Eastern neighbors were reinforced last month when the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, flew to Tehran to sign a nuclear fuel-swap deal -- brokered along with the Brazilian president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva -- aimed at blocking further UN sanctions against Iran's uranium enrichment program. Coming on the back of flourishing trade ties, the move -- ultimately unsuccessful -- was seen as a manifestation of Erdogan's growing affinity for Iran and its president, Mahmud Ahmadinejad, whom he had previously described as "a very good friend." The image of a new Tehran-Ankara axis was further enhanced by Israel's deadly interception of a Gaza-bound Turkish aid flotilla on May 31, which led to the deaths of nine Turks and drew international condemnation. The incident created the impression of a united Turkish-Iranian front against Israel and in support of Hamas, the Islamist group that runs Gaza. The growing warmth is a far cry from the frosty, mutually suspicious relations that endured for years between the two neighbors following the 1979 Islamic Revolution which ousted the Western-backed shah from power in Iran. Yet, according to some analysts, there may be a sting in the tail. Trigger Suspicions Far from being the gateway to a long-standing alliance, Turkey's new engagement with the Middle East and vocal support for the Palestinians could trigger Iranian suspicions and eventually restore the formerly competitive relationship between the two countries. Meir Javedanfar, an Iranian-born analyst with the MEEPAS think tank in Israel, believes Turkey's new Middle East-centered foreign policy -- which includes rapprochement with Iran's close ally, Syria -- is a threat to Tehran's desire to be the Islamic world's dominant power. "Both countries are rivals for the same title, which is leader of the Islamic world," Javedanfar says. "And the Iranians have a set of economic and political advantages to offer any country who wants to side with them, and the Turks have another set of advantages which are far more than the Iranian ones. "I can best describe it as the Turkish government being able to offer business class seats to any potential customer who wants to ally itself with Turkey, and the Iranians can offer a coach or economic class. I think the majority of people are going to be attracted to the business class rather than the other one, unless they have to." If that assessment comes as a relief to Western diplomats fretting over Turkey's supposed defection, there may be a sobering corollary. Javedanfar fears the results of any renewed Iranian-Turkish rivalry will be greater efforts by the leadership in Tehran to acquire a nuclear-weapons capability. "When it comes to economic power, when it comes to military power, when it comes to diplomatic position, Iran is inferior to Turkey," Javedanfar says. "So they are going to look at areas where they are superior and the only other one where they can gain an edge over the Turks, one of the very few areas, is the nuclear program. "Turkey is not a nuclear power. Therefore, Iran would have even more of a reason and an excuse to become a nuclear power in order to gain an edge over their Turkish rivals." Likely Launch Pad The prediction may seem far-fetched, yet hardly more so than an article published earlier this year by the Jahan News website -- believed to be linked to the Iranian intelligence services -- that identified Turkey as the likely launch pad for a future war against Iran. Written by Farid Al Din Hadad Adel, grandson of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the article asked: "Which country can hope for the entry of its European and American friends into the arena of war, if it enters into war against us? The answer is clear. Turkey is the only option for the advancement of the West's ambitions." The Islamic regime has a history of suspiciousness towards Turkey. In 2005, the Revolutionary Guards closed Tehran's newly built Imam Khomeini Airport for "security reasons" because a Turkish company had been awarded the contract to run it. The airport was only reopened after the contract was canceled and awarded to an Iranian consortium. In the same year, the Turkish mobile-phone operator Turkcell was stripped of a $2 billion contract giving it a stake in a private Iranian mobile network. Murat Bilhan, vice chairman of the Istanbul-based think tank TASAM and who served as a Turkish diplomat in Iran, believes continuing Iranian disquiet over its Western neighbor has recently surfaced in its rejection of Ankara's offer of mediation in relations with the United States. Even the recent nuclear swap deal may have been accepted only because of Brazil's role, he suggests. "Iran feels itself a little split off from the Western connections because it's in the hands of Turkey," says Bilhan. "They feel rivalry, as a competitor, and they would not like Turkey to be stronger than Iran. That's the feeling in Iran, in Iranian statesmen, in Iranian decision makers, policy planners, and such. "So Turkey, for Iran, is, in a way, not a threat but something to get along [with], to share the same geography, not to create any problems, but not to be overwhelmed by." Afraid Of Iran A further source of potential friction could be Turkey's increasing closeness to Arab states in the Persian Gulf, most of which fear Tehran's nuclear activities, Bilhan says. "There are some contradictions in the Turkish position in the sense that Turkey should be aware that the Arab nations in the Persian are too much afraid of Iran and they just feel threatened by the Iranian existence and Iranian ambitions in the region, especially their nuclear ambitions," Bilhan says. "So when Turkey supports the Iranian position, it might contradict its own Arab policy because the Arabs have enmity towards Iran." Turkish officials argue that Turkey's geography and shared Muslim heritage make it uniquely qualified in the Western alliance to win Iran's trust. In private, they admit that negotiations with the Islamic regime can be fraught -- citing the Iranian political system's diverse power centers. They also say the two countries still have important differences, notably over Iraq. "We are not defending Iran, we are looking after our own interests" one Turkish official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told RFERL. "We don't want to see a nuclear Iran in the military sense at all. Our aim in that is the same as other countries. It's just our approach that's different." He added: "On Iraq, we don't see eye-to-eye with Iran at all. We want an all-inclusive government in Iraq made up Shi'ites, Sunnis, and Kurds, whereas Iran only wants a Shi'ite government. We are not always in parallel with Iran on many issues. "But I don't think they should see us as a rival. The fact that we can talk to almost everyone, in contrast to them, means Iran should use us to try and get back into the international community. That's what we are trying to do."

RFE/RL
Copyright (c) 2009. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.

June 22, 2010
Turkey opposition gains ground amid eastward drift
By SUZAN FRASER (AP) – 23 hours ago

ANKARA, Turkey — Turkey rallied behind Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in his blistering condemnation of Israel after its commando raid on an aid ship to Gaza.

But as dust settles from the May 31 attack, Turkey’s resurgent opposition seems to be gaining traction by articulating fears that Erdogan is steering NATO’s only Muslim member away from the West, jeopardizing EU membership efforts, and even undermining a long-running battle against separatist Kurds.

The views of the Republican People’s Party — which considers itself a guarantor of secular values and enjoys a power base among Western-leaning urban elites — are increasingly important.

The movement has a popular new leader following the resignation of its chairman over a sex scandal and many have high hopes that he can rejuvenate the party, presenting a viable alternative to Erdogan and anchoring Turkey firmly back in its Western orientation.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu made a name for himself by exposing corruption within Erdogan party’s that led to two senior officials stepping down.

While condemning the Israeli assault that killed eight Turks and a Turkish-American and calling on Jerusalem to end its Gaza blockade, Kilicdaroglu’s party has also criticized Erdogan’s confrontational style against Israel and accused the prime minister of trying to use outrage to win elections due next year.

“We are witnessing a serious crisis of confidence between (Erdogan’s party) and the West … This crisis must end immediately,” Kilicdaroglu said in a speech.

A recent opinion poll shows that the Republican People’s Party has made gains since Kilicdaroglu took the party reins, although Erdogan’s Justice and Democracy Party remains more popular.

The survey, conducted by the Konsensus research company for Haberturk newspaper and published Saturday, shows 38.8 percent backing Erdogan’s party against 31.3 percent for Kilicdaroglu’s Republicans — up from the 25 percent support for the party under the previous leadership. No margin of error was given.

“The belief that there is no alternative to (Erdogan’s party) has ended with Kilicdaroglu becoming chairman,” Konsensus general manager Murat Sari was quoted as saying.

The survey, however, showed that Kilicdaroglu gained support from a nationalist party, not from Erdogan’s ruling party, suggesting that skepticism about the opposition remains widespread.

The Republican Party has long projected a strict — and some say intolerant — form of secularism that has opposed among other things, young women wearing Islamic-style headscarves at universities.

It claims to be the heir to the legacy of Turkey’s modernizing founding father, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. But its coziness with the military, elitist attitudes toward rural Turkey, and opposition to some reforms designed to boost Turkey’s EU membership chances have driven many liberal supporters away. Many also accept that Erdogan’s party, in power since 2002, has been a better steward of economic and social reforms.

For his part, Erdogan has alarmed liberals with his threats to scuttle Turkey’s longstanding alliance with Israel, his questioning of Washington’s international leadership, and his willingness to cultivate friendships with hardline Islamic nations like Iran and Syria.

Increasingly, analysts who praised Erdogan for raising Turkey’s standing in the Middle East are now warning that the government is acting out of emotion not reason in its dealings with Israel and the West.

“Unless someone says stop, the present atmosphere threatens to marginalize Turkey in the long term,” wrote Asli Aydintasbas, a columnist for liberal Milliyet newspaper.

Overwhelming support for Erdogan in elections in 2007 “were not for Hamas but for a ‘western Muslim’ Turkey that increased its global weight both in the East and in the West,” Aydintasbas said.

Military analysts have voiced concerns that Turkey’s new foreign policy is harming its interests, undermining its fight against autonomy-seeking Kurdish rebels.

The United States has been providing intelligence on Kurdish rebel movements in northern Iraq, where a bulk of the rebels are in hiding, while Turkey uses drones recently purchased from Israel to spy on the guerrilla group.

On Saturday, about 60 rebels attacked a military outpost on the Turkish-Iraqi border, killing nine soldiers, according to the military.

The attack raised questions as to how they were able to reach the outpost undetected and some speculated that the United States may have withheld crucial intelligence.

But Maj. Gen. Ferit Guler, secretary-general of the Turkish military, insisted that a successful intelligence cooperation with the United States was still in place.

The military has long supported Turkey’s military alliance with Israel, which has provided crucial military equipment, such as the drones and modernized Turkish fighter jets and tanks.

Erdogan insists it is committed to its alliance with the United States and NATO and that his government still seeks EU membership, although he has also accused European countries of having a “secret agenda” to keep Turkey out.

Copyright © 2010 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
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June 22, 2010
Wait and See Game for Turkey’s Enforcement of UN Sanctions on Iran
Dorian Jones | IstanbuL

21 June 2010

Photo: AFP

Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad flashes the V-sign for victory as Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan looks on after the Islamic republic inked a nuclear fuel swap deal in Tehran (File Photo – 17 May 2010)
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This month, Turkey voted against the United Nations Security Council’s fourth round of sanctions against Iran. With Turkey’s Islamic rooted government increasing its economic ties with Iran in the past few years, fears are arising that the pivotal Western ally is in danger of swinging eastward because of resistance in Europe to its bid for membership of the European Union.

Despite growing international tensions over Iran’s nuclear energy program, the Turkish government has forged ahead with energy deals with Iran, expanding its dependency on energy with the nation.

These deals put Turkey in a precarious situation: to enforce or not to enforce the UN sanctions imposed on its neighbor Iran.

Turkey has long been seen as a bridge between East and West. But its belief that sanctions are ineffective and that there are dangers in pushing the Islamic republic into a corner is likely to change its relationship with Western nations.

Earlier this month Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu expressed concern over the existing sanctions against Iran.

AP

“Turkey and Iran’s trade volume is around $10 billion,” he says. “And it can rise to $30 billion if sanctions are lifted.”

Iran’s energy resources are seen as important by Ankara to break its dependency on Russian energy.

Iran expert Gokhan Cetinsayar of Sehir University says that in addition to its dependency on gas, there are other trade initiatives with Iran that are economically key to Turkey.

“75,000 trucks going on between Turkey and Iran every year,” said Cetinsayar. “Now there are energy deals. You know how important the Iranian natural gas and all other agreements and initiatives are economically important for Turkey.

With large families usually depending for their livelihoods on cargo trucks, its estimated as many a million Turkish people depend on Iranian trade.

With its increasing economic ties with Iran, there are growing fears that Turkey will balk at enforcing the UN sanctions against Iran.

Turkish foreign minister spokesman Burak Ozugergin says Turkey has already paid a heavy economic price for UN policies with another of its neighbors, Iraq.

“At the beginning of the 90’s, the Turkish volume of trade with Iraq was around the 15 to 20 percent mark of our total volume of trade. The next year, after the imposition of sanctions, this trickled down to almost zero,” said Ozugergin. “Money is not everything. But at least if it did work then we might be able to say to our public, ‘look it was for a good a cause.’ But can we really honestly say that looking back? For Iran again we don’t think it will help to solve the nuclear issue and perhaps may work against it.”

The new sanctions on Iran are expected to cut into the present $10 billion trade volume. It could possibly undermine its energy policy as well. But political scientist Nuray Mert of Istanbul University say some western nations may now not be able to depend on Turkey.

“I was inclined to think that at the end of the day Turkey will join the club when it comes to realization of these sanctions,” she said. “But nowadays I can see the government is planning to avoid these sanctions. Because now we have Turkey signing a lot of economic agreements, against the policy of sanctions.”

For now Turkey has remained circumspect over enforcing new sanctions. One foreign ministry official said “you will have to wait and see.” Analysts say Iran would probably reward any breaking of sanctions with lucrative energy deals. But the political cost could be high because of Turkey’s aspirations for joining the EU. The coming weeks will see Ankara facing a difficult a choice.
June 22, 2010