Turkish Forum

Tag: Nabucco

  • Turkey Adopts a More Cooperative Position on Nabucco

    Turkey Adopts a More Cooperative Position on Nabucco

    Turkey Adopts a More Cooperative Position on Nabucco

    Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 6 Issue: 94
    May 15, 2009
    By: Saban Kardas
    According to a senior EU official a new deal has been struck between Turkey and the EU paving the way to sign the intergovernmental agreement for the Nabucco project in Ankara on June 25. The breakthrough was reportedly made possible by Turkey dropping its uncompromising negotiating position and offering an unconditional acceptance of the EU’s terms. In particular, Turkey relinquished its demand to purchase 15 percent of the gas transit at discounted prices (The Guardian, May 11). Although positive statements emerged from the EU summit in Prague last week, lending credibility to this report, the Turkish side has rebuffed claims that a concrete deal has been reached.

    In response to questions about the story in the U.K. newspaper the Guardian, the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Taner Yildiz, ruled out such a deal: “We should not interpret this [story] as yes or no… Negotiations are still under way.” Yildiz added that President Abdullah Gul was in charge of conducting the negotiations for the intergovernmental agreement, and he was not aware of any date being set on signing the agreement (Referans, May 12).

    One Turkish daily cited an unnamed BOTAS official who refuted the claim that Turkey had abandoned its demand for 15 percent. The same source claimed that Turkey’s demand does not directly relate to the consortium building the Nabucco pipeline, and the negotiations on Nabucco would continue in May (Yeni Safak, May 13). Before departing for Baku, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan reacted to these reports, and added that the process remains ongoing (www.aktifhaber.com, May 13).

    Although it remains unclear whether a finalized deal on the negotiations is imminent, it is certain that positive developments in the Nabucco project have occurred. Senior Turkish officials familiar with the negotiations, speaking on the condition of anonymity, confirmed that groundbreaking progress had been achieved -though denying reports that all the conditions or a date had been agreed. In particular, Turkey wants a clause inserted into the intergovernmental agreement to allay its concerns and protect its energy security. “The Turkish side is hopeful that the issue will be solved at the end of the two rounds of discussions before the end of May, leaving enough time for preparations for the signing ceremony” (Hurriyet Daily News, May 13).

    Technical developments appear to be equally positive. Following the Prague summit, the Nabucco consortium announced that engineering teams from the partner countries have launched detailed engineering work on the pipeline route (Milliyet, May 13). A more promising sign is the recent change in the management of Turkey’s energy policies, following the Cabinet reshuffle earlier this month. This has raised expectations that stronger political leadership will ensure avoiding earlier mistakes. Turkey’s hard bargaining position and its misguided policies were considered to be an effort to stall or delay the conclusion of the Nabucco project (EDM, April 24, 27). Inside Turkey, this problematic policy is now increasingly attributed to Turkey’s former energy minister Hilmi Guler, whose insistence on making Turkey an energy hub created a stalemate in the negotiations with the Nabucco partners (Sabah, May 14).

    In addition to the appointment of a new energy minister, Taner Yildiz, who is considered more competent on energy policy, recent developments indicate that President Gul and Prime Minister Erdogan are paying closer attention to Turkey’s energy policies. Moreover, it is argued that since the foreign ministry has increasingly become part of the negotiations, a more realistic stance has been adopted in Turkey’s energy policies (Hurriyet Daily News, May 13). Erdogan and Gul’s political leadership and their high profile involvement might boost Turkey’s credibility and facilitate the conclusion of the Nabucco process.

    Gul represented Turkey at the EU energy summit in Prague last week, which followed his attendance at an earlier summit in Sofia in April. In Prague, he tried to reassure the Nabucco partners of Turkey’s reliability by emphasizing how much Ankara was aware of its responsibilities in the transportation of Caspian and Middle Eastern hydrocarbon resources to Europe. Noting that Turkey acted responsibly in the management of other pipelines on its territory Gul added, “we will demonstrate the same sense of responsibility, even more, in the case of the Southern Gas Corridor and Nabucco, which are of higher strategic importance. Turkey has the highest level of determination and political will to realize the Nabucco project.” Gul noted that Turkey’s energy policy is based on harmonizing its own search for diversifying its suppliers and transportation routes with the EU’s attempts to ensure energy security (Hurriyet, May 9).

    Erdogan is actively complementing the perspective outlined by Gul. Energy related issues constituted a major part of Erdogan’s portfolio during his recent trip to Baku (EDM, May 14). Yildiz said that Ankara and Baku will continue their negotiations on prices for Azeri gas flowing through Turkey (Milliyet, May 15). Erdogan then visited Poland where he delivered an important message on Turkey’s position over energy transportation. He said that “Turkey is a transit and consumer country… As a transit country, we will always be ready to render our help available to Nabucco: there is no doubt on that. The route and diversification of supplies are very important. Turkey is pursuing a cooperative approach on all of these issues” (Cihan Haber Ajansi, May 14).

    Gul and Erdogan’s recent statements suggest that Turkey might be revising its policy of asserting itself as an energy hub at the expense of producer countries and end users. Instead, it is using its position as a transit country as leverage to request additional concessions. Thus, the Turkish leadership is sending signals that it has adopted a more realistic role in Nabucco, which might provide a solid basis to achieve a common position between Turkey and the EU in energy cooperation. Though they continue to emphasize Turkey’s search for security as part of its new energy policy, they are being more careful not to exaggerate their demands.
    https://jamestown.org/program/turkey-adopts-a-more-cooperative-position-on-nabucco/

  • Nabucco Gets A Boost In Baku

    Nabucco Gets A Boost In Baku

    September 10, 2008
    By Bruce Pannier

     

    Turkey’s Hilmi Guler (left) says his country backs Nabucco.

    Western hopes for Caspian gas that doesn’t arrive via Russia are alive and well.

    The future of the Nabucco natural-gas pipeline project have appeared to be in serious jeopardy since war broke out between Russia and Georgia.

    Some export routes leading to the planned pipeline would run through Georgia, where Russian forces remain entrenched in unilaterally declared buffer zones nearly a month after an EU-brokered cease-fire.

    Of course, Nabucco’s viability also hinges to some extent on gas supplies from Caspian countries Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan, all of whom have been courted by Russia’s Gazprom, which recently offered to purchase all of the three countries’ gas.

    But at a “strategic-cooperation conference” in Baku this week, there was broad support for participation in the Nabucco project.

    “Azerbaijan is not giving up on the Nabucco project,” Azerbaijani Industry and Energy Minister Natiq Aliyev vowed. “This is a project that has a future.”

    Turkish Energy Minister Hilmi Guler also seized on the opportunity to pledge his country’s support for Nabucco. “Nabucco will work. We will implement it,” he said. “The Nabucco project will strengthen not only Turkey’s energy security, but Europe’s too. No one should doubt it.”

    The Nabucco plan calls for a 3,300-kilometer pipeline that will transport 31 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe every year once it is fully operational.

    Crucially for Western backers like the European Union and the United States, Nabucco’s route avoids both Russian and Iranian territory entirely.

    Importance Of Diversity

    “The cooperation between these two countries [Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan] and others such as Kazakhstan to create a diversity of export possibilities helps ensure each country’s independence and economic strength,” said U.S. special representative to the EU Boyden Gray, who was at the Baku conference.

    “In addition, there is strength in numbers and in cooperation. These countries in this region are stronger and more influential acting in concert than individually,” he added. “This is especially the case given the closed nature of the Caspian. If they are united on energy issues, these countries can better promote diversification and competition for their exports and, also, over the long haul promote the diversification of their economies through expanded regional and world trade.”

    Gray noted that the United States will not benefit directly from Nabucco but that Washington hoped “that the [Caspian] region and Europe both benefit and that we, as a trading nation, will also indirectly benefit and we very much want for [Europe] to have a strong independent existence to promote your own economies to their fullest potential.”

    Despite having no “direct” interest in the Nabucco project, the United States has been engaged in substantial lobbying for the project in the Caspian region. U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney was in Azerbaijan last week to promote diversification of energy export routes.

    The Nabucco pipeline itself would start from the Georgian-Turkish and/or Turkish-Iranian borders and run to Austria. Nabucco project head Reinhard Mitschek told RFE/RL earlier this year that Nabucco does not contract for gas supplies, it is only an energy import route for Europe. It is up to shareholders in the project and other companies to arrange the purchase of gas and feed it into the Nabucco pipeline.

    But without gas from Caspian countries such as Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan it could be difficult to fill the pipeline, so the participation of those countries in Nabucco is vital.

    Enough Gas?

    The progress in Baku does not yet mean that Nabucco’s problems are all settled. Charles Esser, an energy analyst with the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, points out that Azerbaijan’s participation alone does not remove all the obstacles to Nabucco.

    “The Azeri minister was tentative in his support because he said certainly Nabucco is still on track, he said, though, that ‘we in Azerbaijan don’t have enough gas to, by ourselves, supply [Nabucco] so it will require other sources.’ [Without other sources] he was doubtful that [Nabucco] would happen,” Esser says.

    Turkmen officials at the Baku conference have not yet said what level of participation, if any, Turkmenistan would have in Nabucco. Furthermore, Turkmenistan has committed itself to pumping more gas to Russia and China in recent weeks. And Esser notes that the Russia-Georgia conflict is still fresh in the minds of many and will play a role in how Nabucco fares in the coming weeks.

    “I think there’s a renewed political push for Nabucco; however, at the same time I think commercial risk has increased,” Esser says. “There is no way around it and because of that risk investors will want guarantees. I think we’ll have to see whether the increased political will for Nabucco translates into guarantees and perhaps subsidies.”

    Nabucco is planning to hold a meeting of shareholders, potential investors, and potential suppliers in Budapest next month to discuss the pipeline project’s future.

    RFE/RL Azerbaijani Service Director Kenan Aliyev contributed to this report