Tag: Mavi Marmara

  • This Israeli Government Has Gone Too Far

    This Israeli Government Has Gone Too Far


    By SUAT KINIKLIOGLU

    o                                             Published: June 2, 2010     ANKARA — I am the only Turkish politician who has visited Israel since Israel unleashed the Gaza War, and since the Davos incident between Israeli President Shimon Peres and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan highlighted the differences between our countries. I have many friends in Israel and I did not hesitate to visit Israel when an invitation was extended to me by an Israeli think-tank. I maintained my optimism that Turkey and Israel would be able to mend their differences despite their disagreements over the humanitarian situation in Gaza . However, Monday was a turning point for me and my nation’s 72 million citizens. On Monday Turkey was shocked to watch Israeli commandos raiding a Turkish flotilla loaded with medical supplies, toys and food bound for Gaza , killing at least nine peace activists in the process. The raid in itself was illegal as it occurred in international waters. The ships’ 600 activists included Nobel Peace Prize winner Mairead Corrigan-Maguire, German lawmakers, journalists, businessmen, and an 86-year-old Holocaust survivor — hardly targets who could pose a threat to Israel ’s well-trained commandos. Accounts from released activists clearly indicate that the Israeli commandos who stormed the largest ship in the flotilla shot to kill and used electric stun guns. These accounts differ sharply from those coming from Israeli politicians and military. It is therefore imperative that “a prompt, impartial, credible and transparent investigation conforming to international standards” is held. The United Nations, Turkey and international public opinion demand to know what happened; why and who is responsible for the death of nine peace activists. The flotilla raid has two dimensions. First, it has irrevocably damaged Turkish-Israeli relations at the bilateral level. Turkey demands an independent investigation and an apology and compensation for those killed by Israeli commandos. Ankara also wants those responsible for this crime to be punished. Anything short of these measures will not cut it. What the current Israel government does not seem to get is that this action has crossed a critical threshold in the Turks’ perceptions vis-à-vis Israel , regardless of political persuasion. After yesterday, Turks regard the current Israeli government as unfriendly. There is no doubt that the rift has the potential to escalate if Israel does not respond quickly and responsibly Second, there is a significant international dimension to the flotilla fiasco. The killing of nine peace activists by Israel once again demonstrated the blatant disregard for international norms and law by this Israeli government. The response of the international community — and more importantly, the U.S. response — to Israel ’s disproportionate use of violence constitutes a test for U.S. credibility in the Middle East . Along with many European nations, the U.N. and global public opinion, the U.S. has a moral responsibility to condemn Israel ’s violence. Turkey is closely monitoring the U.S. response. As Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu noted, this is not a choice between Turkey and Israel . It is a choice between right and wrong, between legal and illegal. In many respects, the Middle East is approaching an important crossroad. The United States will determine what sort of Middle East it will be dealing with in the future by its response to Israel ’s actions. This could not be more urgent given the tension surrounding Iran ’s nuclear program, the precarious situation in Iraq and the ongoing war in Afghanistan . Furthermore, the flotilla raid has once again highlighted that the blockade on Gaza is no longer sustainable or justifiable. Gaza today constitutes an open-air prison. According to Amnesty International, 1.4 million Palestinians are subject to a collective punishment whose aim is to suffocate the Gaza Strip. Mass unemployment, extreme poverty and food price rises caused by shortages have left four in five Gazans dependent on humanitarian aid. That is why the Freedom Flotilla wanted to deliver aid. It also wanted to make a point of the need to allow Gazans to trade and interact with the rest of the world. Turks have welcomed the Jews escaping from the Inquisition in Spain in 1492. Our diplomats have risked their lives to save European Jews from the Nazis. The Ottoman Empire and Turkey have traditionally been hospitable to Jews for centuries. But we can no longer tolerate the brutal policies of the current Israeli government, especially if they cost the lives of our citizens. The conscience of neither the Turks, nor the international community, can any longer carry the burden of the Netanyahu government’s irresponsible policies. Both Israel and Turkey deserve better. Suat Kiniklioglu is a member of Turkish Parliament from the Justice and Development (AK) Party and its deputy chairman of external affairs.
    Tribune Media Services

  • Fethullah Gülen, a controversial and reclusive U.S. resident

    Fethullah Gülen, a controversial and reclusive U.S. resident

    Reclusive Turkish Imam Criticizes Gaza Flotilla

    By JOE LAURIA

    • MIDDLE EAST NEWS
    • JUNE 4, 2010

    SAYLORSBURG, Pa.—Imam Fethullah Gülen, a controversial and reclusive U.S. resident who is considered Turkey’s most influential religious leader, criticized a Turkish-led flotilla for trying to deliver aid without Israel’s consent.

    Speaking in his first interview with a U.S. news organization, Mr. Gülen spoke of watching news coverage of Monday’s deadly confrontation between Israeli commandos and Turkish aid group members as its flotilla approached Israel’s sea blockade of Gaza. “What I saw was not pretty,” he said. “It was ugly.”

    Julie Platner for the Wall Street JournalImam Fethullah Gülen at his estate in Pennsylvania on Wednesday.

    GULEN

    GULEN

    Mr. Gülen said organizers’ failure to seek accord with Israel before attempting to deliver aid “is a sign of defying authority, and will not lead to fruitful matters.”

    Mr. Gülen’s views and influence within Turkey are under growing scrutiny now, as factions within the country battle to remold a democracy that is a key U.S. ally in the Middle East. The struggle, as many observers characterize it, pits the country’s old-guard secularist and military establishment against Islamist-leaning government workers and ruling politicians who say they seek a more democratic and religiously tolerant Turkey. Mr. Gülen inspires a swath of the latter camp, though the extent of his reach remains hotly disputed.

    His words of restraint come as many in Turkey gave flotilla members a hero’s welcome after two days of detention in Israel. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of the ruling Justice and Development Party condemned Israel’s moves as “bullying” and a “historic mistake.”

    Mr. Gülen said he had only recently heard of IHH, the Istanbul-based Islamic charity active in more than 100 countries that was a lead flotilla organizer. “It is not easy to say if they are politicized or not,” he said. He said that when a charity organization linked with his movement wanted to help Gazans, he insisted they get Israel’s permission. He added that assigning blame in the matter is best left to the United Nations.

    Mr. Gülen has long cut a baffling figure, as critics and adherents have sparred over the nature of his influence in Turkey and the extent of his reach. Leading a visitor on Wednesday past his front corridor—adorned with a map of Turkey, a verse from the Quran and a photograph of a Turkish F-16 jet over the Bosphorus—he portrayed himself an apolitical teacher. “I do not consider myself someone who has followers,” he said.

    More

    • Opinion: Turkey’s Radical Drift
    • New Aid Ship Heads to Gaza
    • Israel Explores Easing Its Blockade of Gaza
    • Turkish Group Sees Victory in Martyrdom
    • Israel’s Isolation Deepens
    • In Israel and Abroad, Raid Spurs Criticism of Military’s Judgment
    • Aboard Marmara, Skirmish Turns Deadly
    • Complete Coverage: WSJ.com/Mideast

    Born in eastern Turkey in 1941, Mr. Gülen became a state-licensed imam at 17, after three years of formal education and studies with Sufi masters. In a Turkey largely under the sway of a military-secularist establishment, he built a national organization of Islamic study and boarding halls, gaining support of many wealthy Muslims but at times running afoul of the law.

    While in the U.S. in 1999 for medical treatment, he was charged in Turkey with attempting to create an Islamic state— anathema under Turkey’s secularist constitution. He stayed in Pennsylvania, where he now lives on a 25-acre estate in the Pocono Mountains. Over the years, he said, he has left the estate twice.

    Mr. Gülen preaches nonviolence, dialogue between Western and Muslim worlds, and an educational tradition that combines study of science and Islam. His newspaper columns, weekly Internet sermons and other messages have been collected into more than 60 books. His adherents number, by various estimates, three million to eight million.

    Followers have established hundreds of schools in more than 100 countries and run an insurance company and an Islamic bank, Asya, that its 2008 annual report said had $5.2 billion in assets. They own Turkey’s largest daily newspaper, Zaman; the magazine Aktion; a wire service; publishing companies; a radio station and the television network STV, according to Helen Rose Ebaugh, a University of Houston sociologist and author of “The Gülen Movement.” She says followers donate up to one-third of their income to independent Gülen-linked foundations.

    Ms. Ebaugh said Mr. Gülen doesn’t sit on the boards of Asha bank nor any foundation or editorial boards of Gülen-sympathetic magazines, newspapers or television stations. In the interview, the imam said he had no financial interest in any holdings.

    Mr. Gülen’s detractors see him as a cult-like leader whose empire aims to train an Islamic elite who will one day rebuild the Turkish state. Soner Cagaptay, a Gülen critic who is a Turkey analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says the Turkish police force may be largely influenced by the imam through Gülen sympathizers in key positions—effectively creating a counterbalance to Turkey’s powerful military, a secularist bastion.

    “I am not a leader of a faction or someone who would cause some state officials to follow me despite their official duties,” Mr. Gülen said in the interview.

    The U.S. has “immense ambivalence” about Mr. Gülen, said Graham Fuller, an ex-Central Intelligence Agency officer who is a resident consultant at the Rand Corp. in British Columbia.

    “On the one hand they do perceive him as very moderate and doing many positive things,” Mr. Fuller said. But Washington has long thrown its lot behind the secularist followers of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, he says, viewing them “as the only narrative to what Turkish politics is all about.”

    The U.S. State Department declined to comment about Mr. Gülen for this article.

    In 2007, U.S. Homeland Security moved to deny Mr. Gülen permanent-resident status in the U.S., rejecting his claim of exceptional ability as an educator. “The record contains overwhelming evidence that plaintiff is primarily the leader of a large and influential religious and political movement with immense commercial holdings,” the government wrote.

    Mr. Gülen won on appeal after getting 29 letters of support, including one from Mr. Fuller.

    The imam disputed Homeland Security’s characterization. He goes only so far as to provide guidance to those who ask, he said.

    The 2002 election of the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, opened a new era for Mr. Gülen and those he inspires, given their common foe in the military-secularist establishment.

    The AKP says it has no political ties to Mr. Gülen. The imam says critics have linked him, falsely, to Turkey’s current and previous leaders. “I do not have and have never had any relationship with a movement that has political aspirations,” he said. “I am just a Turkish citizen.”

    Last month, Mr. Gülen’s followers founded the Assembly of Turkic American Federations in Washington, a lobbying and umbrella organization for some 180 local non-profit foundations around the U.S. involved in education and culture.

    An English-language Turkish newspaper reported that Mr. Gülen has told his followers they couldn’t visit him on his Poconos estate if they didn’t first donate to their local congressman. Mr. Gulen denies making the remark.

    Mr. Gülen said that for Muslims, benefiting their community is both an Islamic and humanitarian duty, and that he would be happy if those who respect him support their lawmakers in the name of democracy and humanitarianism.

    “I hear that some people in the United States consider Turkey as sitting at the epicenter of radicalism,” Mr. Gülen said. The new federation’s lobbying would aim “to reflect through sincere, pro-dialog and open-minded people the true nature of Turkey’s realities.”

    Write to Joe Lauria at newseditor@wsj.com

  • Israel seems to reject international inquiry; navy kills militant divers in Gaza

    Israel seems to reject international inquiry; navy kills militant divers in Gaza

    From: ealerts@email.foreignpolicy.com
    To: armagangurbuz@aol.com


    Top story: Israel has still not issued a formal reply to U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon’s proposal that an international investigation be held into the Israeli raid on a Gaza aid flotilla last week, but it seems clear that Israel has rejected the idea, and will conduct its own investigation.

    “At the end of the day, Israel has the right, the duty, as a democracy to investigate any military activity,” Ambassador to the United States Michael Oren said on Sunday. The Israeli government is reportedly considering allowing some international participation in an Israeli-led inquiry into the incident.

    The latest violence in Gaza came on Monday when the Israeli navy shot and killed four Palestinian militants in wetsuits off the coast. The four were reportedly members of the al Aqsa Martyr’s Brigade marine unit on a training mission.

    The activists on board the Irish-flagged vessel Rachel Corrie were deported on Sunday after delivering aid to Gaza.

  • Erdogan and the Decline of the Turks

    Erdogan and the Decline of the Turks

    OPINION

    JUNE 3, 2010

    When I asked the prime minister about stories alleging a U.S.-Israeli

    murder and organ selling scheme in Iraq, he could not bring himself

    to condemn them.

    By ROBERT L. POLLOCK

    Israeli special forces and their commanders were apparently shocked to find their boarding attempt on the Mavi (“Blue”) Marmara met with violence. They should not have been. I have no doubt that the Turkish “peace activists” aboard the ship regarded Israeli troops as something akin to the second coming of Hitler’s SS.

    To follow Turkish discourse in recent years has been to follow a national decline into madness. Imagine 80 million or so people sitting at the crossroads between Europe and Asia. They don’t speak an Indo-European language and perhaps hundreds of thousands of them have meaningful access to any outside media. What information most of them get is filtered through a secular press that makes Italian communists look right wing by comparison and an increasing number of state (i.e., Islamist) influenced outfits. Topics A and B (or B and A, it doesn’t really matter) have been the malign influence on the world of Israel and the United States.

    For example, while there was much hand-wringing in our own media about “Who lost Turkey?” when U.S. forces were denied entry to Iraq from the north in 2003, no such introspection was evident in Ankara and Istanbul. Instead, Turks were fed a steady diet of imagined atrocities perpetrated by U.S. forces in Iraq, often with the implication that they were acting as muscle for the Jews. The newspaper Yeni Safak, Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan’s daily read, claimed that Americans were tossing so many Iraqi bodies into the Euphrates that local mullahs had issued a fatwa ordering residents not to eat the fish. The same paper repeatedly claimed that the U.S. used chemical weapons in Fallujah. And it reported that Israeli soldiers had been deployed alongside U.S. forces in Iraq and that U.S. forces were harvesting the innards of dead Iraqis for sale on the U.S. “organ market.”

    Associated PressPrime Minister Tayyip Erdogan (left) has distanced himself from allies such as the U.S. and curried favor with the likes of Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

    pollock

    pollock

    The secular Hurriyet newspaper, meanwhile, accused Israeli soldiers of assassinating Turkish security personnel in Mosul and said the U.S. was starting an occupation of (Muslim) Indonesia under the guise of humanitarian assistance. Then U.S. ambassador to Turkey Eric Edelman actually felt the need to organize a conference call to explain to the Turkish media that secret U.S. nuclear testing did not cause the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. One of the craziest theories circulating in Ankara was that the U.S. was colonizing the Middle East because its scientists were aware of an impending asteroid strike on North America.

    The Mosul and organ harvesting stories were soon brought together in a hit Turkish movie called “Valley of the Wolves,” which I saw in 2006 at a mall in Ankara. My poor Turkish was little barrier to understanding. The body parts of dead Iraqis could be clearly seen being placed into crates marked New York and Tel Aviv. It is no exaggeration to say that such anti-Semitic fare had not been played to mass audiences in Europe since the Third Reich.

    When I interviewed Prime Minister Erdogan (one of several encounters) in 2006, he was unabashed about the narrative.

    Erdogan: “I believe the people who made this movie took media reports as their basis . . . for example, Abu Ghraib prison—we have seen this on TV, and now we are watching Guantanamo Bay in the world media, and of course it could be that this movie was prepared under these influences.”

    Global View Columnist Bret Stephens explains why Israel’s best friend in the Middle East is now an adversary.

    Me: “But do you believe that many Turks have such a view of America, that we’re the kind of people who’d go to Iraq and kill people to take their organs?”

    Erdogan: “These kind of things happen in the world. If it’s not happening in Iraq, then its happening in other countries.”

    Me: “Which kind of things? Killing people to take their organs?”

    Erdogan: “I’m not saying they are being killed. . . . There are people in poverty who use this as a means to get money.”

    I was somewhat taken aback that the prime minister could not bring himself to condemn a fictional blood libel. I should not have been. He and his party have traded on America and Israel hatred ever since. There can be little doubt the Turkish flotilla that challenged the Israeli-Egyptian blockade of Gaza was organized with his approval, if not encouragement. Mr. Erodogan’s foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, is a proponent of a philosophy which calls on Turkey to loosen Western ties to the U.S., NATO and the European Union and seek its own sphere of influence to the east. Turkey’s recent deal to help Iran enrich uranium should come as no surprise.

    Sadly, Turkey has had no credible opposition since its corrupt secular parties lost to Mr. Erdogan in 2002. The Ataturk-inspired People’s Republican Party has just thrown off one leader who was constantly railing about CIA plots for another who wants to expand state spending as government coffers collapse everywhere else in the word. What’s more, Turks remain blind to their manifest hypocrisies. Ask how they would feel if other countries arranged an “aid” convoy (akin to the Gaza flotilla) for their own Kurdish minority and you’ll be met with dumb stares.

    More

    • Israel’s Isolation Deepens
    • Aboard the Marmara, Skirmish Turns Deadly
    • Israel Defends Flotilla Raid
    • Pressure Rises on Israel Over Raid
    • Photos: Raid on Flotilla | Protests | Video
    • Vote: What should happen to Israel’s blockade?
    • WSJ.com/Mideast: Complete coverage

    Turkey’s blind spot on the Kurdish issue is especially striking when you recall that Turkey nearly invaded Syria in 1998 for sponsoring Kurdish terrorism. Kurdish separatist leader Abdullah Ocalan then bounced around the capitals of Europe, only to be captured in Kenya and handed over to the Turks by the CIA. Turkey’s antiterror alliance with Israel and the U.S. couldn’t have been more natural.

    Yet Prime Minister Erdogan was one of the first world leaders to recognize the legitimacy of the Hamas government in Gaza. And now he is upping the rhetoric after provoking Israel on Hamas’s behalf. It is Israel, he says, that has shocked “the conscience of humanity.” Foreign Minister Davutoglu is challenging the U.S: “We expect full solidarity with us. It should not seem like a choice between Turkey and Israel. It should be a choice between right and wrong.”

    Please. Good leaders work to defuse tensions in situations like this, not to escalate them. No American should be deceived as to the true motives of these men: They are demagogues appealing to the worst elements in their own country and the broader Middle East.

    The obvious answer to the question of “Who lost Turkey?”—the Western-oriented Turkey, that is—is the Turks did. The outstanding question is how much damage they’ll do to regional peace going forward.

    Mr. Pollock is the Journal’s editorial features editor.

    >

  • Israel worried by new Turkey intelligence chief’s defense of Iran

    Israel worried by new Turkey intelligence chief’s defense of Iran

    Israeli sources believe Hakan Fidan aided in orchestrating an intentional change in relations between Israel and Turkey.

    By Amir Oren

    Warsaw GhettoThe Israeli defense establishment – and especially the Mossad’s foreign relations department, which maintains ties with Turkey’s national intelligence organization (MIT ) – is concerned over the recent appointment of Hakan Fidan as head of that organization, and the implications of that appointment vis-a-vis Turkish relations with Israel and Iran.

    Ten days ago, Hakan Fidan, 42, a personal confidant of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, assumed the post of head of MIT, which combines the functions of the Mossad and Shin Bet security force.

    Israeli security sources believe last week’s the Mavi Marmara incident reflects an intentional change in relations between Israel and Turkey – orchestrated by Erdogan, along with Fidan and Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu.

    There is no concrete information, however, regarding Fidan’s involvement in the incident or his ties with IHH, the group that organized the flotilla.

    In meetings between Mossad officials and others in the local political-security establishment, it was noted that Fidan has close ties with Erdogan’s Islamist party, and that during the past year he was deputy director of the prime minister’s office and played a central role in tightening Turkish ties with Iran, especially on the nuclear issue.

    Fidan’s appointment at MIT will help strengthen Erdogan’s control over certain civilian elements in the Turkish intelligence community, both in terms of determining foreign and defense policy, and also vis-a-vis members of the senior military echelons, who are considered to be a central threat to the Islamist party’s power.

    To date intelligence ties between Israel and Turkey have been good, in parallel to the good relations between the Israel Defense Forces and the Turkish military, and their respective intelligence services.

    In April the last head of MIT, Emre Taner, retired after a five-year stint. Erdogan appointed Fidan as acting head then, but he only formally took over late last month. Fidan served in the Turkish military for 15 years, until 2001, but was not an officer.

    MIT has extensive authority, in both internal security and foreign intelligence gathering. Its chief answers directly to the prime minister, although the law obliges him also to report to the president, the chief of staff and the country’s National Security Council.

    Fidan completed a B.A. at the University of Maryland, and he completed his master’s and doctorate in Ankara. His dissertation was a comparative analysis of the structure of U.S., British and Turkish intelligence organizations.

    After his military service, Fidan served in the Turkish embassy in Australia, and last year he represented Ankara in the International Atomic Energy Agency, where he defended Iran’s right to carry on with its nuclear program for “peaceful purposes.”

    With Davutoglu, Fidan formulated last month’s uranium transfer deal between Turkey, Brazil and Iran.

    Apparently, he supports the idea of splitting MIT’s authority into an internal and an external intelligence organization, like in Israel, Britain and the United States. It is reported that he intends to concentrate on “institutional” tasks and to work with an independent security service, one of whose main purposes is to deal with the Kurdish PKK organization – partly to deflect criticism of his appointment.

    In Israel there is concern Fidan’s appointment will have a two-pronged effect: on one hand, that exchange of intelligence between the two countries will be harmed, and on the other, that Israel will have to limit the transfer of information to Turkey, out of a concern that it may be passed on to enemy organizations or states.

    , 07.06.10

  • After the Israeli flotilla incident, Turkey is the new Palestinian champion

    After the Israeli flotilla incident, Turkey is the new Palestinian champion

    Egypt’s control of the Palestinian ‘file’ will never be the same again, says former British intelligence operative Alastair Crooke.

    By Alastair Crooke / June 3, 2010

    Beirut, Lebanon

    “This is language that we have not heard since the time of Gamal Abdul Nasser.” Thus wrote the influential chief editor of Al-Quds al-Arabi newspaper, referring to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s fiery response to the Israeli assault on the Gaza flotilla – adding that such “manly” positions and rhetoric had “disappeared from the dictionaries of our Arab leaders (since the demise of Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser).” He lamented that “Arab regimes now represent the only friends left to Israel.”

    Related Stories

    • Why Israeli raid on Freedom Flotilla makes Abbas’s job harder
    • After Israeli raid, Freedom Flotilla aid starts to flow to Gaza
    • Israel rejects international investigation of Freedom Flotilla raid

    There is no doubt that it is President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, President Nasser’s successor, to whom Abdel Bari Atwan principally refers; and there is no doubt, too, that the “flotilla affair” marks a watershed moment for Egypt – and to a lesser extent for Saudi Arabia.

    Even the notoriously tin ear of President Mubarak to his own people’s sympathy for the Palestinian cause in Gaza could not fail to hear the grinding of the tectonic plates of Middle East change. Even Mubarak has felt obliged to respond to the Israeli assault. He ordered the immediate opening of the Egyptian crossing into Gaza.

    What we are witnessing is another step – perhaps crucial – in the shifting strategic balance of power in the Middle East. The cause of the Palestinians is gradually passing out of the hands of Mubarak and King Abdullah bin Aziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia. It is the leaders of Iran and Turkey, together with President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, who recognize the winds of change. Mubarak appears increasingly isolated and is cast as Israel’s most assiduous collaborator. Here in the region, it is often as not the Egyptian embassies that are the butt of popular demonstrations.

    Mubarak’s motives for his dogged support for Israel are well known in the region: He is convinced that the gateway to obtaining Washington’s green light for his son Gamal to succeed him lies in Tel Aviv rather than Washington. Mubarak enjoys a bare modicum of support in the United States, and if Washington is to ignore its democratic principles in order to support a Gamal shoo-in, it will be because Israel says that this American “blind eye” is essential for its security.

    To this end, Mubarak has worked to weaken and hollow out Hamas’s standing in Gaza, and to strengthen that of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Indeed, he has pursued this policy at the expense of Palestinian unity – his regular “unity” initiatives notwithstanding. Egyptian one-sided peace “brokering” is viewed here as part of the problem rather than as part of any Palestinian solution. Paradoxically, it is precisely this posture that has opened the door to Turkey and Iran’s seizing of the sponsorship of the Palestinian cause.


    But standing behind this sharp Turkish reaction to Israel’s assault on the Turkish ship is a deeper regional rift, and this divide stems from the near-universal conviction that the Israeli-Palestinian peace process has failed. Its structural pillars have crumbled: The Israeli public no longer believes that “land for peace” – the Oslo principle – will bring them security. Rather, Israelis believe those who tell them that further withdrawal will only bring Hamas rockets closer. The other Oslo pillars also lie broken on the ground: The hitherto presumed “reversibility” of the Israeli settlement project and the hypothetical possibility of last-resort American imposition of its own solution are now understood to have been no more than chimeras.

    Yet Egypt refuses to budge in these changed circumstances. It stands almost alone as Israel’s ally. But the shift in the balance of regional power toward the northern tier of Middle Eastern states – Syria, Turkey, Iran, Qatar, and Lebanon – continues, and gathers pace. Egypt increasingly has only its memory of past grandeur on which to stand. In contemporary terms its influence has been on the slide for some time.

    Egypt’s one card is that it is Gaza’s other neighbor – aside from Israel. It has been Egypt’s acquiescence to the siege of Gaza – encouraged by President Abbas in the West Bank, who shares Mubarak’s desire to see Hamas weakened – that has given Mubarak his stranglehold over Palestinian issues. But the Islamic and regional tide will be flowing ever stronger against him after Israel’s action against the flotilla.

    Already the Arab League is talking of supporting Turkey in any legal action against the Israeli assault on the aid convoy to Gaza. The Arab League has also issued a call to other states to break Israel’s siege on Gaza.

    It is too early to say that such talk marks any turning point in Arab League politics. The Arab League, as such, is not taken seriously in the region or elsewhere. But it is rather the shifting of the regional strategic balance that marks the locus from where real change may become possible.

    Egypt and Saudi Arabia may conclude that the price of seeing the baton of leadership on such a key and emotive issue pass to non-Arab hands inIran and Turkey is too high, and too shameful. The near-universal skepticism directed toward the “peace process” among their own peoples has already left these leaders exposed internally.

    For nearly 20 years these leaders have used their involvement in the “process” as justification to curb internal dissension; but it is now a tool that has lost its magic. They are already paying the price of popular cynicism.

    This is Mubarak’s dilemma: stay with the siege and hope America will reward him with Gamal’s succession; but by flouting the winds of change, he may imperil Gamal’s very survival. In any event, Egypt’s control of the Palestinian “file” will never be the same again.

    Alastair Crooke, a former British M16 operative in the Middle East, is author of “Resistance: The Essence of the Islamist Revolution.” He runs the Conflicts Forum in Beirut.

    © 2010 Global Viewpoint Network/ Tribune Media Services. Hosted online by The Christian Science Monitor.