Editorial Commentary
Scott Sullivan: Obama’s Iraq Crisis
In addition to the financial crisis, Obama faces an emerging crisis in Iraq. The temporary stability of Iraq brought about by Operation Surge is vanishing. Iraq is moving towards partition and civil war, thanks to the Kurds. If Bush and Obama do not stop the Kurds in this coming week, the US occupation of Iraq will become a fiasco.
Today’s Washington Post (23 Nov 08) carries a front page story about Kurdish imports of a large quantity of small arms directly from Bulgaria, bypassing the Baghdad ministries of Defense and Interior, which are the only government entities under Iraq’s constitution authorized to import weapons.
Kurdish efforts to import weapons follow illegal Kurdish efforts to sign separate energy agreements with the international oil companies. Moreover, the Kurds are illegally expanding the size of the Iraqi Kurdish state. The Iraqi Kurds are sending units of the Kurdish peshmerga militia into Kirkuk, which the Kurds claim as part of their new independent state.
In other words, the embryonic Kurdish state created by the US occupation of Iraq has become a “runaway train” that threatens to bring down Iraq as a whole via civil war. The Kurds will derail all of Obama’s careful planning for a 16 month strategy for leaving Iraq.
Due to Kurdish aggression, Obama’s second most important task, after dealing with the financial crisis, is to deal with the Iraq crisis. Obama’s policy review should begin by rejecting the conventional wisdom of Obama’s transition team on Iraq that US forces play a positive role in Iraq and by rethinking Obama’s likely decision to retain Robert Gates as Defense Secretary.
Obama’s transition team shares the conventional view with Gates that US forces play a constructive role in Iraq. Gates is convinced that US troops are essential to Iraqi stability and cannot be withdrawn under Obama’s 16 month timeframe, much less Governor Richardson’s six month exit timeframe,
In contrast, Richardson’s view is that US forces in Iraq, by supporting Kurdish separatism, are destabilizing Iraq. Under Richardson’s view, Iraqi stabilization will be possible only if US forces are withdrawn from Iraq as quickly as possible, most likely on Richardson’s six month exit timeframe. Gates is wrong, while Richardson is right.
In sum, Obama faces two immediate tasks to deal with Iraq’s emerging crisis. First, Obama must call President Bush and remind Bush of his responsibility to deter the Kurds. Second, if Bush refuses to deter the Kurds, Obama should contact Biden, Clinton, Richardson and Jones so as to prepare for a six month timeframe for exiting Iraq.
Of course, Obama could decide to take no action on Iraq until January 20. However, doing nothing is not an option for Obama. An Obama decision to do nothing to deter the Kurds would be seen by the Kurdish leadership as Obama’s approval for Kurdish imperialism and extremism. Does Obama want to go down in history, along with Bush, as the father to the new Kurdish superpower in the Middle East?
Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee and was the Senior Advisor for International Economics at the Crisis Management Center of the National Security Council, 1984 -1986. Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.
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Petroleumworld News 24.11.08
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