Tag: Gaza

  • If it’s good for Gaza it’s good for Turkey

    If it’s good for Gaza it’s good for Turkey

    It’s become a widely accepted assumption that Turkey is a rising powerhouse in the Middle East. The country’s prime minister Reccep Tayyip Erdogan has been cast as a “new sultan in a neo-Ottoman empire” after he staged a “conqueror’s march” last week through Egypt, Tunisia and Libya and lectured Arab leaders that he knows how to treat Israel, the ““West’s spoiled child,” as he put it.

    There is considerable irony in all of this. Once upon a time the Ottoman Empire included at one time or another most of the Arab countries in the Middle East and stretched across much of North Africa. Unfortunately for the Turks they picked the losing side in the First World War and paid the penalty by having their empire taken away from them in 1923  by the Treat of Lausanne. Last week, however, the one-time colonials cheered the man who now leads their former imperial master. Go figure.

    Yet, some think the new Ottoman emperor’s new clothes are threadbare. Guy Bechor, an Israeli expert on the Arab world, points out that Turkey faces a “credit bubble” that could burst at any time. Indeed, according to Bechor, Turkey’s budget deficit compared to its GDP is at 9.5 per cent, just shy of Greece’s 10 per cent. By comparison, Israel’s budget deficit is about three per cent and likely to drop to two per cent. Turkey’s economic growth – 10 per cent this year – is the result of “financial manipulation.”

    Apparently Turkey’s banks have been handing out loans and mortgages at very low interest rates, prompting Turkish citizens to pile on the debt (Does this sound familiar?) This easy credit policy is made possible by Turkey’s Central Bank acting at the behest of Erdogan’s government. The result, says Bechor, is that Turkey’s external debt has doubled in the last 18 months, only 15 per cent of which was financed by foreign investment.

    In effect, says Bechor, Erdogan’s popularly with Turkish voters is the result of cheap money, not a swing to Islamic fundamentalism on the part of the electorate. That popularity could disappear if, or when, the bubble pops? It’s happened elsewhere. The Greek economy is near collapse and civil unrest is rife. Europe’s economies are stagnant and anti-status quo sentiment is everywhere.  President Obama is increasingly unpopular because unemployment in the United States remains stubbornly high at about nine per cent. Turkey may well go that way, too. Turkey’s unemployment, Bechor points out, is about 13 per cent, its currency has dropped sharply against the dollar and the country’s stock exchange has lost 40 per cent of its value in the last six months.

    One of the tried and true tactics of politicians is to conjure an external enemy with which they can divert the populace  from their own  corruption and incompetence. Arab leaders, in particular, have pulled this stunt for decades, encouraging anti-Israeli sentiments and promoting a blame-the-Jews attitude among their people as a way to explain the backwardness and failure of  Muslim societies. Of course, the ultimate diversion is war.

    Erdogan is certainly fomenting hostility toward Israel, which not so long ago had close economic and military ties with Turkey. The two countries cooperated to keep the Middle East from boiling over, with Turkey serving as a sane counterbalance to the madmen who ran Iran and Iraq. Indeed, as journalist Martin Peretz observes, Turkey was once a “buffer against Muslim millenarianism.”

    Not any more.  Erdogan plays to the Islamists, using religious extremism to further his own ends, whatever they may be. Does anyone seriously think last year’s Gaza flotilla sailed without Erdogan’s approval or wasn’t intended as a deliberate provocation of Israel? Nine people died and dozens were wounded when Israeli navy commandos seized a Turkish ship, the Mavi Marmara that was part of a six-boat flotilla of self-proclaimed pro-Palestinian “activists” trying to run Israel’s blockade of the Gaza Strip. The Turks have been demanding an Israeli apology ever since and using Israel’s refusal as an excuse to expel Israel’s ambassador and harass Israeli businessmen in Turkey. Erdogan has even threatened to send the Turkish navy to protect another flotilla.

    Such a threat raises some interesting scenarios. Turkey is a NATO member. Under the NATO charter an attack on one NATO member is considered an attack on all. If Israel, in the act of defending itself, sinks a Turkish ship, does that constitute an act of war against the NATO alliance?

    The idea is absurd, of course, yet it makes you wonder why western leaders are allowing a NATO member to play such dangerous games. If  Erdogan continues promoting Turkey as an imperial power at the expense of Israel, NATO will have to rethink its continued membership in the “western” alliance.

    The question, of course, is why Erdogan acts as he does. One possible answer is President Obama who, if he could get away with it, would abandon the one stable and sane ally the United States has in the Middle East, namely Israel, in order to curry favour with the Muslim world. Obama’s imprimatur, tacit or otherwise, is all over Erdogan’s antics. In Peretz’s words: “(Obama’s) adoring view of Erdogan has stimulated the Turkish regime to be a force not for stability in Cairo or Ramallah.”

    Perhaps the Israelis should be a force for instability among all those Kurds, sending “flotillas” to those who loathe Turkey’s continued imperialist domination of their traditional homelands. Indeed, it’s only logical–and fair–that if Erdogan supports the creation of a state for the “Palestinians,” then, presumably,  he’d support creating a state for the Kurdish people on their traditonal homeland even if that terrority subtracts from Turkey’s. If  it’s good for Gaza then surely it’s good for Turkey, too.

  • Turkey seeks alliance with Egypt as Middle East restructuring begins

    Turkey seeks alliance with Egypt as Middle East restructuring begins

    by Gaius Publius

    An important under-the-radar process has started in the Middle East, which could result in a major restructuring of alliances and powers.

    Earlier Myrddin reported on (and analyzed) the possibility of war between Turkey and Israel over Israel’s May 2010 assault on the Turkish-flagged humanitarian flotilla bound for Gaza.

    There is no question that relations between Israel and Turkey have reached a new, almost rock bottom low. After that attack, which resulted in the deaths of nine Turkish citizens, Turkey has said that the Turkish navy would escort the next Gaza-bound rescue ships. That makes it put up or shut up for Israel, with war hanging in the balance.

    Now, in a brilliant bit of diplomatic maneuvering, Turkey is working on an alliance with Egypt (my emphasis):

    A newly assertive Turkey offered on Sunday a vision of a starkly realigned Middle East, where the country’s former allies in Syria and Israel fall into deeper isolation, and a burgeoning alliance with Egypt underpins a new order in a region roiled by revolt and revolution.

    The portrait was described by Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu of Turkey in an hourlong interview before he was to leave for the United Nations, where a contentious debate was expected this week over a Palestinian bid for recognition as a state. Viewed by many as the architect of a foreign policy that has made Turkey one of the most relevant players in the Muslim world, Mr. Davutoglu pointed to that issue and others to describe a region in the midst of a transformation. Turkey, he said, was “right at the center of everything.”

    He declared that Israel was solely responsible for the near collapse in relations with Turkey, once an ally, and he accused Syria’s president of lying to him after Turkish officials offered the government there a “last chance” to salvage power by halting its brutal crackdown on dissent.

    Strikingly, he predicted a partnership between Turkey and Egypt, two of the region’s militarily strongest and most populous and influential countries, which he said could create a new axis of power at a time when American influence in the Middle East seems to be diminishing.

    This is seriously one to watch. Egypt and Turkey are as close as you get in the Middle East to Arab–Europe crossroads states, with cultures and economies that share in both worlds. (And the article is an excellent review of Turkey and its strengthening place in the Arab world; very impressive.)

    Will Turkey follow through on a navy-escorted Gaza humanitarian flotilla? If so, will Israel attack? As Myrddin points out, if Israel backs down, the hard-right Netanhahu–Avigdor Lieberman government could fall.

    And long-term, imagine a Middle East dominated by a pro-Palestine Egypt–Turkey axis instead of the Israel–Syria “warring states” status quo. Couple that with diminished U.S. influence, presence & credibility; add a dash of Palestinian de-facto statehood via the U.N. — and suddenly the world looks different from over there.

    This certainly could stir the pot, and not in the bad way.

    GP

    via US Politics | 2012 Election – AMERICAblog News: Turkey seeks alliance with Egypt as Middle East restructuring begins.

  • Israel is paying for Gaza war with Turkey and Egypt crises

    Israel is paying for Gaza war with Turkey and Egypt crises

    During Hanukkah 2008, Israel attacked Gaza in Operation Cast Lead. Now it is eating the bitter fruit of that operation, which was the turning point in the attitude of the world and the region toward Israel and its belligerent and violent policies. The shock waves take time to arrive, but now they are coming, and they are big. Every day has new dangers. Some are the result of Israel’s actions, its aggression, its euphoria, its arrogance and carelessness. The outcome: The only two countries that ever accepted it in the region, Turkey and Egypt, are burning their relations with Israel. The first was via a government decision, the second that of an angry mob.

    During that fateful Hanukkah, the Israel Defense Forces attacked Gaza and its defenseless population. Israelis did not see that war on their televisions as people saw it in Istanbul and Cairo. Here they made do with an army of pundits who reported fighting in Gaza when there was almost none. Here they hid from us most of the horrific pictures that were broadcast elsewhere in the world – including, of course, Istanbul and Cairo. At the time, they only counted the numbers of the (many) Palestinian dead and the numbers of the (few) Israelis, and therefore the operation was seen as a colossal military, diplomatic and even moral success.

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    IDF soldiers during Gaza war

    IDF soldiers during Operation Cast Lead.

    Photo by: AP

    But it was a resounding failure. What is happening now in Egypt and Turkey must be added to the balance of Operation Cast Lead. Not that it’s all because of Cast Lead. Hatred for Israel flared before it, but Cast Lead was the turning point when a good deal of the world reversed its attitude toward Israel.

    Not that everything was Israel’s fault, but its governments – both former and current – have done too little to lower the flames and a great deal to raise them. Yes to settlements and no to peace arrangements; no to apologies and yes to a light trigger finger for Sinai and the Mavi Marmara. As British journalist Robert Fisk put it so well on Saturday: “Israel thinks too little and shoots too much.”

    The decline in relations with Turkey doubtless began following Operation Cast Lead. The attacks on the Israeli Embassy in Cairo came at first following the killing of the five Egyptian soldiers by Israel last month, but was spurred by Israel’s deteriorating ties with Turkey. Last week it was clear that if Turkey is all but cutting its relations with Israel, Egypt cannot stand by and do nothing.

    In the new Egypt the street speaks, and the street had its violent and unequivocal say over the weekend. This is the street that had practically nothing against Israel during the Tahrir uprising in the spring, but after the killing of the five soldiers, Israel’s lack of apology for doing so and the Turkish fiasco, it is coming out against Israel now.

    The street saw the brutal scenes from Operation Cast Lead not shown in Israel, and they became enemies, more than ever. Then came the attack on the Mavi Marmara, a miniature version of Operation Cast Lead.

    The former prime minister, Ehud Olmert, the current defense minister, Ehud Barak, and the former foreign minister, Tzipi Livni, should be held accountable for the diplomatic destruction they brought on Israel.

    A very dangerous fire broke out in the shabby office building where, until Friday, Israel had its embassy. That is black news. The original sin: Operation Cast Lead.

    via Israel is paying for Gaza war with Turkey and Egypt crises – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

  • Turkey says it won’t send gunboats to Gaza any time soon

    Turkey says it won’t send gunboats to Gaza any time soon

    By HERB KEINON

    09/11/2011 07:28

    Officials say prime minister Erdogan’s quotes were misinterpreted; Israel says no decision has been made about assisting Kurds fighting Anakara.

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    Turkey and Israel took baby-steps back over the weekend from a further dramatic deterioration in ties, with Turkish officials saying Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s threats of sending gunboats to Gaza were misinterpreted – and Israel made clear it had not decided to support the Kurdish militants fighting Turkey.

    According to officials quoted in Istanbul’s Today’s Zaman newspaper over the weekend, remarks Erdogan made during an interview on Al Jazeera Thursday about the gunboats were “quoted out of context.”

    RELATED:

    Erdogan threatens to send gunboats with next flotilla

    According to the paper, in the Turkish version of the interview, Erdogan said: “At the moment, no doubt, Turkish warships are first of all liable to protect their own ships. This is the first step. And there is humanitarian aid, which we will extend. Our humanitarian assistance will no longer be attacked as happened in the case of the Mavi Marmara.”

    A senior government official quoted by Today’s Zaman on Friday said Erdogan’s remarks did not mean Ankara was preparing to send humanitarian-aid ships to Gaza, escorted by Turkish gunboats.

    “As long as Israel does not interfere in the freedom of navigation, we do not plan on sending any warships to escort humanitarian-aid ships,” the official was quoted as saying.

    “The misquoted remarks suggest that we have been readying to provide a warship to escort each humanitarian aid ship. This is not the case. However, Turkey will protect its citizens’ rights in the event of any interference in international waters.”

    Meanwhile, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said on Saturday night Israel wanted to prevent a further deterioration of ties with Turkey.

    “We didn’t choose this, and we will work to lower the flames, and if possible to rebuild the ties.”

    Also on Saturday night, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said in a Channel 2 interview that there was no Israeli proposal on the agenda to help or have contact with the PKK Kurdish militant organization.

    Lieberman was referring to a story in Yediot Aharonot on Friday that this was one of the steps the government was discussing as a response to threats from Ankara.

    Among the other steps reportedly under consideration in the Foreign Ministry were issuing a travel advisory warning Israelis – especially those who served in the IDF – against visits to Turkey; strengthening cooperation with the Armenians, Turkey’s historical rivals, and with their powerful lobby in Washington; and waging diplomatic warfare against Turkey in the international community by focusing the world’s attention on its human-rights violations in its ongoing battle with the Kurds.

    “The Foreign Ministry has had many discussions and brainstorming sessions, and there are many ideas,” Lieberman said. “We are looking at all the scenarios. I think that regarding Turkey, both sides have an interest in strengthening the ties and returning to normalization. We don’t want a conflict with the Turks, but we also will not raise the white flag.”

    Soon after the Yediot article appeared on Friday, the Prime Minister’s Office issued a statement saying Israel’s policy “was and remains to prevent deterioration in ties with Turkey and [to promote] a calming of the tensions between the two countries.”

    The statement said the prime minister and the government discussed numerous theoretical possibilities in the event of an escalation.

    “But a decision will only be made when it is needed. Israel acted, and will act, responsibly, and hopes that Turkey will do the same.”

    via Turkey says it won’t send gunboat… JPost – Diplomacy & Politics.

  • In Turkey former Blues star Trevor tells of sabotage by Israeli Mossad

    In Turkey former Blues star Trevor tells of sabotage by Israeli Mossad

    By Cormac Murphy

    Thursday June 30 2011

    2906 Trevor Hogan H 934591tA FORMER Leinster star and an ex-TD were among 20 Irish people who could have drowned after their aid ship to Gaza was sabotaged overnight.

    Members of the team have blamed Israeli secret agents for the sophisticated attack by divers.

    Only the action of the quick-thinking crew saved lives from being lost on the MV Saoirse, which is docked in Turkey.

    It was due to take part in a flotilla to the besieged Middle East zone but was “sabotaged” and will not now travel.

    Rugby player Trevor Hogan said the realisation of what happened has left crew members “devastated”.

    He said the boat would have been “well out to sea” before the effects of the attack were felt.

    “There would have been a loss of life on the boat. It’s pretty devastating. We’re all coming to terms with it at the moment,” the 31-year-old former Leinster and Munster star said.

    “It was definitely sabotage. It was a clear attempt to sink the boat and it would have been a gradual sinking.”

    The Israeli spy agency Mossad is being blamed for the sabotage.

    Former TD Chris Andrews told the Herald today: “The boat would almost certainly have sank.

    “We don’t know the precise way they did it but they cut a shaft so that we would have got out of the port but then it would have snapped.”

    Divers used an angle grinder to cut the shaft while it was at berth in the Turkish coastal town Gocek.

    Trevor said: “You don’t need to be Sherlock Holmes to work out who is responsible for this. Israel is the only one who is interested in stopping this flotilla and they’re using every means possible. It’s pretty worrying.”

    He wants the Irish Government to “stand up behind us and protect us” and called for Foreign Affairs Minister Eamon Gilmore to condemn the attack.

    Six of the 20 crew and passengers who had been due to travel on the Saoirse will now join the flotilla on an Italian vessel.

    “They’re not going to intimidate any of us. Our resolve is stronger than ever,” Mr Hogan said.

    The Israeli Embassy in Dublin did not provide a response to the Herald regarding the allegations at the time of writing.

    The Saoirse had been at berth in Turkey for the past few weeks. The damage was discovered when skipper Shane Dillon noticed something amiss and carried out an inspection.

    The boat was put on land at a local shipyard and the extent of the sabotage was immediately visible.

    “The propeller shaft had been weakened by saboteurs who cut, gouged or filed a piece off the shaft. This had weakened the integrity of the shaft, causing it to bend badly when put in use,” said a press statement.

    Dr Fintan Lane, national coordinator of Irish Ship To Gaza, which owns the vessel, said: “This is an appalling attack and should be condemned by all right-thinking people.”

    comurphy@herald.ie

    – Cormac Murphy

    via In Turkey former Blues star Trevor tells of sabotage by Israeli Mossad – National News, Frontpage – Herald.ie.

  • Terra Incognita: The Turkish enigma

    Terra Incognita: The Turkish enigma

    By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
    06/28/2011 22:31

    The cancellation of the participation of the ‘Mavi Marmara’ in the Gaza flotilla and the mystery of what Turkey’s political elite is thinking.

    Photo by: Reuters/Emrah Dalkaya
    Photo by: Reuters/Emrah Dalkaya

    Sometime this week, some 1,000 activists on one or two large Turkish ships accompanied by 15 other craft were to be making their way to Gaza. But they are nowhere on the horizon, although Israel has been preparing to prevent their breaking the blockade.

    So what happened? Just a month ago, various “Free Gaza” blogs were ablaze with hopes for the latest flotilla. Gaza TV News and Freedomflotilla.eu both reported that the Turks were going to send not only the Mavi Marmara( the ship Israel boarded on May 31, 2010), but also another “1,000-ton-capacity aid ship.”

    This phantom ship was supposed to set sail on May 31, 2011 to commemorate the fate of the first flotilla, in which nine Turkish activists were killed. Accompanying photos of the ghost ship showed a type of freighter. Alas, it seems the story was smoke and mirrors; if there was a ship, it never sailed.

    One man who posted on a freedom flotilla blog noted: “We hope that the Turkish people who have always extended their helping hand to Gazans will also help the loading of this ship with their donations.”

    Reliance on the Turks to provide the shipping capacity and spearhead the aid convoy has become a failing portion of the overall architecture of the Free Gaza Movement.

    Specifically, it is the reliance on the financial muscle and political influence of Insani Yardim Vakfi (Foundation for Human Rights and Freedoms and Humanitarian Relief-IHH).

    The IHH, founded in 1995 to support Bosnian Muslims, is an Islamic (probably Islamist) charity. In 2010 it purchased the Mavi Marmara and loaded it with 600 activists to sail to Gaza. The motives for its sudden interest in Gaza were never entirely clear. Its connections to the governing party of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, were never entirely understood either. What is clear is that Ergodan reacted with extreme anger when nine activists died aboard the Marmara. In a June 2, 2010 speech before the Turkish parliament he raged “in an absolutely illegal way did they [Israel] attack, spilling the blood of innocent humans.”

    Later he reportedly referred to the dead as martyrs, and seemed to infer that the flotilla’s actions had the consent of the Turkish government.

    The IHH talked tough in the waning days of 2010 and through May 2011. Then it revealed that it would postpone sending any ships until after Turkey’s June 12 elections.

    This intimated that it needed the approval of the ruling party, and also feared that sending its ships before the election could create a provocation that would harm Erdogan.

    The decision to not send the ships came after two interesting occurrences on June 7.

    First it was reported that Kemal Kılıçdarolu, leader of the opposition Republican People’s Party, had criticized the government for not thinking of the consequences of the Gaza flotilla’s actions. Then Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkey’s foreign minister (who was also standing for election), said: “The aid flotilla should wait to see what happens with the Rafah border crossing being opened, and to see how Israel perceives the new [Palestinian unity] government.”

    Erdogan’s party handily won the June elections.

    Then on June 17 the IHH’s leader, Fehmi Bulent Yildirim, noted that the flotilla would not depart because of technical difficulties; “the exact reason has nothing to do with the government or the state… the Israelis, unbelievably, damaged our vessel.”

    Really? The ship was released by Israel and returned to Turkey in August 2010. Presumably if it had technical difficulties, the IHH would not have claimed so often that it would be sailing. When the IHH was asked why a smaller freighter it had purchased was not going to be joining the other freedom-flotilla craft, Yildirim claimed that this smaller ship had to accompany the Marmara, as if they were one package.

    Indeed they are one Turkish package. The pathetic little fleet of sloops, yawls, dinghys, ketches and catboats that Western pro-Gaza groupies have arranged has neither the muscle, capacity nor headline-generating images needed to break the blockade or create any sort of international incidents. It is as if Admiral Nelson had been forced to bring only rowboats to Trafalgar to face French ships of the line.

    But the real question remains: how to decipher this Turkish enigma? Already commentators have come to understand that the IHH’s actions are closely linked to the governing party, because the two organizations share a similar, Islamic-inspired political ideology.

    It has also transpired that there are deep divisions in Turkish political circles over how wise it is to harm relations with Israel, particularly the secular opposition and the nationalist (i.e non-Islamist) daily Hurriyet have shown a willingness to challenge the Erdogan narrative. Davutoglu, who has always gained accolades for his deft handling of Turkish foreign policy, has revealed himself to be very pragmatic on the Gaza issue, realizing that the opening of Rafah negates the flotilla’s raison d’etre. But if all this pragmatism has suddenly come to the surface, what sort of judgment prevailed a year ago that allowed a cruise ship full of radical activists to depart for Gaza? What were the activists going to do if they actually got to Gaza? Rumors abound that Turkey wishes to be the mature leader of an Arab democratic awakening, and sees the Gaza issue as a side-show. Others speak of secret backroom talks between Israel and Turkey.

    Nuh Yilmaz and Kilic Bugra, ham-handedly writing in Foreign Policy on June 21, claim “Turkey will continue to extend and deepen its ties with different political actors and the people of the Middle East.”

    Such insight.

    What’s going on in Turkey is a mystery, and that enigma should raise many eyebrows in Israel.

    The writer has a PhD from Hebrew University, and is a fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Market Studies.