Turkish Forum

Tag: Economic Crisis

  • Patrik Bartholomeos, Let’s Turn the Hatred Door into Friendship Door

    Patrik Bartholomeos, Let’s Turn the Hatred Door into Friendship Door

    Sibel Keskin [sibelkeskin@yahoo.com]

    In the recent years, the Fener Greek Patriarchate has been trying to make its name known and gain sympathy with dialogue attempts and peaceful statements in many fields. On the contrary, despite all the efforts, it is known that the Patriarchate is a church which follows its customs as strictly as to reject any negotiation and criticism on issues which are directly related with it.

    Even Patriarch Patrik Bartholomeos, who conveys Turkey that he is a loyal citizen and pays attention to create an image as such, is not able to eliminate certain practices which are regarded as evil attitudes in the public opinion.

    The Fener Greek Patriarchate demands lots from Turkey, and does not refrain from taking its problems to the courts and even complaining to other countries and the ECHR.  However, it stubbornly rejects the proposals to open the “Hatred Door” which has been cited both by the official channels and the non-governmental organizations since the foundation of the Republic and has caused serious suspicion and unrest in the public opinion.

    This strict attitude leads to a widespread approval by the public opinion of the view that the “Patriarchate is a seedbed of trouble and betrayal that has been involved in any kind of activity against Turkey including the Morean rebellion in 1821, the War of Independence, the Lausanne Treaty and the Paris Accord of 1947”.

    The “Hatred Door” which creates serious unrest in the Turkish public opinion has been closed since 1821. In the years between 1820-1821, Greeks massacred thousands of Turks in the Morea; as a result of the investigations, it was found out that the mentioned massacre against the Turks in the Morea was organized by the then Fener Greek Patriarch Gregorius, and the Patriarchate was acting as a “command-control center”. After plans and documents related to the Morean rebellion and the massacre were found in the Patriarchate, Gregorius was tried and executed in front of the main door of the church for having “betrayed his country”.

    The then Patriarchate administration decided “to keep the door closed until the revenge of Gregorius was taken, a Turkish statesman was hung at the same place, and Istanbul was taken over by Greece”. The main door is still closed and the door for the servants is used for entrance. The Hatred Door which has been closed for 188 years cannot avoid causing such a description that “the Patriarchate is the Trojan horse of Greece”.

    Thus, it would be regarded as “an indication of goodwill and sincerity” if the Fener Greek Patriarchate, which nowadays keeps making lists of demands to Turkey, opens and turns the “Hatred Door” into “Friendship Door”.

    Sibel Keskin

    sibelkeskin@yahoo.com

  • Turkey Exposed:

    Turkey Exposed:

    Cannot Pretend to be

    Both Pro-Israeli and Pro-Palestinian

    SASSUN-2

    Publisher, The California Courier

    Playing the skillful political games of their Ottoman predecessors, Turkey’s current masters present their country under various guises — as European and Middle Eastern, Islamic and secular, pro-Arab and pro-Israeli.

    It now appears that the end is near for at least one of these Turkish charades. Israeli officials have finally awakened from their prolonged coma to discover that their erstwhile “strategic partner” is far more hostile than their Arab enemies.

    For a long time, Turkish leaders have been calling the Israelis all sorts of unsavory names and accusing Israel of committing barbaric acts, crimes against humanity, and genocide. Strangely, Israel has shown little indignation, even in the face of persistent racist and anti-Semitic outbursts by large segments of the Turkish public.

    The latest display of Turkish hostility was the exclusion of Israel from a multinational military exercise which was to start in Turkey on October 12. In protest, the United States, Italy and Holland pulled out of these maneuvers, causing their cancellation. In a move designed to further irritate the Israelis, Turkey announced that it would instead hold joint military exercises with Syria, Israel’s main adversary.

    Turkey’s Prime Minster Rejeb Erdogan told the Anatolia Press Agency last week that he had banned Israel from the military drill in response to the wishes of the Turkish public. “Turkey does not take orders from anyone in regards to its internal affairs,” Erdogan boasted. Some Turkish officials indicated that the ban was instituted because the Israeli jets assigned to the exercise had participated in the Gaza bombings earlier this year.

    This episode marks a major escalation of the long-standing Turkish bitterness towards Israel. For the first time, the Turkish military joined the civilian government in adopting an anti-Israeli position. Furthermore, Turkey went beyond mere verbal condemnation to taking concrete action. For years, the Israeli government was willing to swallow insults from Turkish officials, as long as its Air Force was permitted to make practice runs in the vast Turkish airspace, shared intelligence, and sold military hardware to Turkey.

    Making matters worse, Israelis were deeply offended by the broadcast of a Turkish show on state TV last week, depicting graphic scenes of Israeli soldiers killing Palestinian children and committing other atrocities.

    Israel’s Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman reacted by summoning the Turkish ambassador and accused Turkey of inciting hatred against Israelis. Lieberman stated that not even Israel’s enemies would air such a hostile TV series. Israel’s Deputy Prime Minister Silvan Shalom urged Turkey “to come to its senses.” Another Israeli official stated: “We need to stop accepting the Turkish dictates and humiliations. It is inconceivable that they should insult us at every opportunity, and we should continue to hold our tongues.”

    Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu categorically rejected any future mediating role for Turkey in talks with Syria. An unnamed “senior Israeli official” was quoted by Haaretz as stating that the strategic ties with Turkey may “have simply ended.” Meanwhile, the Jerusalem Post quoted some Israeli defense officials as stating that “advanced weapons sales to Turkey would now be reviewed.”

    There were also widespread calls last week for the Israeli public to boycott Turkish resorts. National Public Radio (NPR) reported that Israel’s largest labor union would no longer plan for thousands of its workers organized tours of Turkey, and would direct them to go instead to Greece and Bulgaria. Since January, there has been a 47% drop in the number of Israelis spending their vacations in Turkey, according to Time magazine. An Israeli coffee shop chain expressed its displeasure by announcing that it would no longer serve Turkish coffee to its customers. In an unprecedented move, several Israeli cabinet ministers declared that they would turn down the Turkish Embassy’s invitation to attend Turkey’s Independence Day celebrations later this month.

    Many outraged Israelis advocated that, in retaliation, Israel acknowledge the Armenian Genocide. Dan Margalit of “Israel Hayom” newspaper accused the Turks of not only committing Genocide, but also the “ongoing crime, which is expressed in energetic Turkish activity to deny the atrocity and to incite against any country and government and artist who wish to express their horror.”

    Ephraim Inbar, head of the BESA Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University in Ramat Gan, reminded the Turks that they are still in need of “Israeli influence in Washington to prevent the passage in Congress of a resolution declaring the killing of Armenians during World War I a genocide.”

    In an unprecedented action, the “Im Tirtzu” Israeli student movement held a protest last week in front of the Turkish Embassy in Tel Aviv. The students displayed bloody pictures of victims of the Armenian Genocide, handed out books on the Genocide to passersby, and carried signs calling on Turkey to formally recognize the Genocide.

    To atone for its past sin of siding with Turkish denialists, Israel must officially affirm the Armenian Genocide as well as actively lobby for its recognition by other states. Israel should also permit the erection of a monument at a prominent location to commemorate the victims of the Armenian Genocide and reverse its long-standing ban on TV broadcast of documentaries on this subject. It is certainly in Israel’s own interest to side with the victims of genocide rather than with its perpetrators!

    Instead of maintaining at all cost its unholy alliance with Turkey, Israel should earnestly pursue a peace settlement with the Palestinians and live in peace with its Arab neighbors, thus obviating the need to curry favors with the Turkish denialist regime.

    ==================== SUBJECT RELATED E-MAIL’S RECEIVED=

    From: Ismet Takim [ismettakim@yahoo.com]

    Subject: {Pax Turcica} Our problems are just begining, l worned you all before, we play this game we will loose and guess who is happy???

    READ

    Turkey Exposed:

    and any of you still have any questions about this? some of our readers here is also responsiable for this and you have no idea what we will face, you just sit and watch, pro Palestenian Turkey is comitting suicide,

    Erdogan made the biggest mistake, and some of you who posts pro

    Filistin BS, tags and articles here should be ashame of themselves

    they have done a disservice and put our mainly my efforts back in

    time, and we have to fix this now, l have to go to work again and undo some of this,

    stupid stupid stupid bird brains bleeding hearts, stop your Anti Israel stands and get real, stop hurting Turkey,

    ======================================================

    From: Metin Mangir [mangir.metin@gmail.com]
    Subject: {Pax Turcica} Are you aware of the slap to Erdogan by Obama?


    While we are all focussed on the Armenian issue (because of our

    proxomity to the diaspora) Obama invited (!) Erdogan to come to WDC on

    Oct 29 (with two weeks notice), following the cancellation of the joint

    military exercises with Israel, US, and the increasing row with Israel

    upon showing of a TV program on TRT.  (now that Turkey has good

    relations with Syria,  does it not need Israel to squeeze Syria?? which

    was what started the close military collaboration with Israel.)

    The choice of date and such short notice is VERY significant (and

    insulting)!  The big brother is calling the errant boy on the carpet?

    By the way, in general the news about the Armenian protocols are

    positive in Turkey (amazing!).  Very few voices are opposing it.  Also

    it has lost its luster as the “milli birlik acilimi” and the return of

    34 people from Irak upon Ocalan’s orders has taken the center stage.

    If the borders open the real big winner will be Russia, more than

    Armenia.  Since (rightly) Azerbeycan will be pissed off at Turkey and

    the West, and get closer to Russia (if it can dare to play with such

    danger) and the West, US will loose the Caucases.

    What I do not understand is

    1)  how come US is willing to let this happen?  What has Russia forced

    upon US following Georgia?

    2) Davutoglu, who has written in three different places in his book

    about the  crucial importance of Azerbeycan for Turkey, is going along

    with this protocols steps?

    Metin

    ==========================================

    From: Ergun [ergun@cox.net]
    Subject: {Pax Turcica} Re: Are you aware of the slap to Erdogan by Obama?

    Metin,

    I suspect one major thing behind Obama’s sudden invitation:  Afghanistan.

    He may ask for more troops from Turkey.  Secondarily, Iraq.  O. may discuss

    strategy with E. on the mechanics of US pull out, the vacuum in Iraq, etc.

    All have to do with US involvement in unpopular, unwanted wars that are

    draining the US economy and social life.

    Israel, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and others are little more than dressing for

    the salad.

    This is one man’s opinion.  🙂

    Ergun  KIRLIKOVALI

    ===================================================

    Statement released by National Security Council that met today is below. Afghanistan issue has been discussed. Turkey will resume Kabul Area Commandership for the second time.

    Afganistan‘da son dönemde meydana gelen gelişmeler, Cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimleri dahil, değerlendirilmiş, ülkemizin Afganistan‘ın istikrarına yönelik katkı ve girişimlerinin sürdürüleceği belirtilmiştir. Bu kapsamda; Türk Silahlı Kuvvetlerinin Kabil Bölge Komutanlığı görevini Kasım 2009 başında ikinci defa alacağı, yine önceki görevlerde olduğu gibi, Türk Silahlı Kuvvetlerinin terörle mücadele, uyuşturucu ile mücadele, mayın temizleme görevlerinde kullanılmayacağı teyit edilmiştir.

    Fariz Huseynov [huseynovfa@gmail.com]

    =======================================================================

    On Tue, Oct 20, 2009 at 12:52 PM, <vaslay@aol.com> wrote:

    dear Ergun

    you are not alone for this opinion

    is isn’t funny while we are disgracing our man and women in uniform ( TSK)
    Obama needs our soldiers not government

    if you didn’t have one of the best army in the middle east

    O. wouldn’t care less for you

    regardas,

    vedat aslay

    ——————-

    Dear Metin

    Excellent observation and analysis

    I wonder what is going behind the close doors?

    Yes Russia it seems that  the big winner?

    how come for the US. Are we underestimating her.

    The is a big game going on over the middle east and Central Asia.

    The player are strong and Armenia, Azerbaijan, Syria, TURKEY  and even Israel is foot soldiers in this game

    Obama will make sure that Erdogan is not out of step. If he is you know in military

    SOL, SAG, SOL SAG, SOL, SOL P……. SOL
    Don’t worry this game is a long game and  we are just watching part I

    Vedat Aslay vaslay@aol.com

    ========================================================

    From: Yusif [yusif@azeris.com]
    Subject: {Pax Turcica} Re: Are you aware of the slap to Erdogan by Obama?

    That’s correct. Russia will be a winner big time.

    First, they will close the discussion on Nabucco both restricting

    other countries’ willingness to diversify their exports and preventing

    anything that could possibly harm Russia economically and

    politically.

    Second, they will realize the South Stream project, always viewed as

    an alternative to Nabucco and through that project will still control

    southern Europe and Turkey itself.

    Third, under the pretext of protection of South Stream, Russia will

    completely militarize Black Sea with additional Russian fleet and will

    henceforth prevent another proposed rival energy project White Stream

    to go from Georgia to EU through Ukraine from realization.

    Fourth, Russia will get deeper into Turkish economy through Armenia

    and through Armenian element will be able to exert pressure on Turkey

    and possibly other Middle Eastern states in the future. It benefits

    Russia to see islamization of Turkey. The practice of moderate Islam

    in the form of Gulenist ideology actually may suit Russia’s interests.

    In regards to US interests in the deal there are several factors.

    First of all, US was hoping for Russia’s support on the issues of

    nuclear threat from Iran. In general, apart from everything else, it

    is not in Russia’s interest to see containment and any sort of

    democratization of Iran. There is 25 mln Azeri minority in Iran which

    if needed could be a decisive factor in the future partition of Iran

    or a tool to bring down the current mullah regime. That’s one of the

    reasons Stalin was willing to and finally withdrew from Iran in 1946

    because he did not want a more sizeable Azeri minority within Soviet

    borders.

    Secondly, in my opinion, it’s not the US that is exerting pressure on

    Turkey. I think it’s Turkey which is using its inadequate behavior

    with Israel to pressure the United States. If we go back to 2003 we

    would see that Turkey was bold enough to withstand pressure from US

    during proposed invasion of Iraq from Turkey. To me personally, it

    doesn’t make sense to see America give up Azerbaijan and Georgia and

    the existing energy projects therefore losing both economically and

    politically.

    As far as Turkey’s position about Azerbaijan is concerned, I think

    they might have striken a deal on withdrawal of Armenian troops from 5

    occupied regions and agreed with Russia and US on joint peacekeeping

    mission. In any case, allowing any peacekeeping missions in Karabakh

    would be disastrous for Azerbaijan. If Russia’s troops are allowed to

    be stationed on Azerbaijani soil in any form, this would be the end of

    Azerbaijani independence and goodbye to Karabakh. Experience with

    Georgia is a good example.

    Presence of US troops would mean almost the same. Experience with

    Kosovo is a good example. That’s why Kaidanow is all around (http://

    www.a1plus.am/en/official/2009/10/20/nalbandian-tina-kaidanow)

    Presence of Turkish troops, if any, would mean nothing at all,

    especially if the protocols are ratified and diplomatic relations

    established and ‘good will of friendly’ Turkish government is

    recognized in Armenia and separatist regime in Karabakh.

    Any peacekeeping mission whatsoever would mean protraction of this

    conflict and interim status of NK last forever, therefore ending in

    partitioning of Azerbaijan forever.

    I guess, the original plan of these regional players is:

    1. to strike a deal, have Armenian troops withdrawn from 5 regions;

    2. bring in the peacekeeping force into those regions;

    3. ensure return of Azerbaijani refugees to those regions;

    4. re-arrange routes of energy resources from Azerbaijan and Central

    Asia through Armenia and/or through occupied Karabakh, as many allege;

    5. build confidence between people of the region

    6. hold a referendum in NK. Holding a referendum in Karabakh would

    mean complete loss.

    Opening any borders means directly benefitting Armenia economically

    which will stimulate economy and therefore human reproduction of

    Armenians in Karabakh. That’s when the numbers will matter.

    Yusif

    ================================================

    Turkey’s The policy of “zero problems” creating “new problems”
    https://www.turkishnews.com/en/content/2009/10/20/turkeys-the-policy-of-zero-problems-creating-new-problems/

    From: Ergun [ergun@cox.net]

    The policy of “zero problems” with neighbors seems to be creating “new problems” with neighbors

    Case one:  Azerbaijan.

    The U.S.-Russia-mandated protocols with murky gains but sure losses for Turkey are already costing Turkey dearly.  Check out these recent developments:

    1- Azerbaijan Looks For Gas Routes To Europe Bypassing Turkey

    2- Azerbaijan warns Turkey, West on gas exports

    3- Azeri leader slams Turkey as gas route to Europe

    https://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSLG44450320091016

    4-  Azerbaijan stops flying the Turkish flags over the Turkish martyrs’ cemetary in Baku.

    When the U.S. and Russia (an EU) forced these protocols on Turkey, they probably expected the estrangement of Azerbaijan.  If the oil and gas lines from Azerbaijan to Turkey run dry, the biggest beneficary would be, you guessed it, Russia.  Risk all you got for something in return that may or may not pan out.  We are sold this deal as “dialog, normalization, peace, and democracy” package.  Sometimes I wish an engineer was the leader in Turkey so that he would know simple math, as in addition and subtraction.

    April 24 is not far away.  We will all see if the protocols bring “normalization and peace” or ” more chaos, polarization, and stalemate”, with the net result of poorer Turkey due to weakened/lost energy lines.  (Prediction:  the latter.  Why?  Because the deal incredibly left Azerbaijan out.  Huge mistake!)

    Case two: Israel

    This one has to do with Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, although the tensions came to a head over other things like a cancelled joint military exercises and an aired TV-show:

    TV Show Deepens Split Between Israel and Turkey

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB125573461255590957

    Turkey points to Israel to deflect from itself

    Netanyahu declares in Madrid that due to recent developments, Turkey is no longer an impartial mediator for peace talks between Syria ad Israel.

    My take on all this:

    I am not against dialog or peace.  I am against poor business deals, especially if they are conducted under pressure of partisans with vested interests clashing with yours.

    The foreign policy of Turkey should be updated from “zero problems with neighbors” to “zero old and new problems with neighbors”.

    Ergun KIRLIKOVALI


  • Turkey Proceeds with its Economic Recovery Plans

    Turkey Proceeds with its Economic Recovery Plans

    Turkey Proceeds with its Economic Recovery Plans

    Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 6 Issue: 174September 23, 2009

    By: Saban Kardas

    On September 16, Turkey’s Economy Minister Ali Babacan revealed the government’s medium term economic plan for 2010-2012, prepared by the state planning agency. Babacan acknowledged that the contraction in growth by the end of the year may reach 6 percent, rather than the previous estimate of 3.6 percent. According to his forecasts, the economy will experience growth rates of 3.5 percent in 2010, 4 percent in 2011 and 5 percent in 2012. The government also expects the budget deficit to reach 62.8 billion TL ($42.9 billion), then starting to fall to 50 billion TL ($33.8 billion) in 2010 and 45.1 billion TL ($30.5 billion) in 2011, and 39.1 billion TL ($26.4 billion) in 2012. Similarly, the current account deficit is also forecast to reach $18 billion. Babacan acknowledged that despite a modest recovery, unemployment is set to remain at around its current rate of 14 percent in 2010, which is well above the pre-crisis rate of 10.8 percent (www.cnnturk.com, www.ntvmsnbc.com, September 16).

    The global financial crisis was a serious blow to the Turkish economy, which led to a drastic decline in production and employment in sectors heavily dependent on exports. Although the government initiated several economic stimulus packages, their effectiveness has proven limited. They slowed the contraction of the economy, but are far from stimulating a sustainable economic recovery. The soaring budget deficit due to the economic crisis has been a growing concern among economists (EDM, August 11).

    Therefore, economists expected the government to focus on taking precautions to address the budget deficit in 2010-2012. In contrast to initial speculation that the government might have set unrealistic targets in terms of growth and fiscal balances, experts evaluating the middle term economic plan argued that it is based on a realistic prognosis of the economic conditions and a pragmatic outlook to address the problems. Rather than expecting an ambitious short term recovery, the government prefers a gradual approach aimed at improving economic conditions (Anadolu Ajansi, Today’s Zaman, September 17).

    Following the announcement of the plan, international credit rating agencies also responded positively. Standard & Poor raised Turkey’s credit rating outlook from negative to stable, while Moody’s upgraded the outlook on Turkey’s Ba3 bond rating from stable to positive (www.ntvmsnbc.com, September 18).

    On the implementation side, one factor that makes economists believe that the plan is realistic is the decision to introduce a “fiscal rule” into public administration starting from 2011. Once it is in place, it is expected to contribute to long term fiscal stability, by setting limitations on public spending. This rule was required by the IMF as part of the loan negotiations with Ankara (EDM, January 29).

    However, the role of the IMF in the implementation of the plan has proven controversial. Ankara was engaged in protracted negotiations for over a year with the IMF in order to secure a loan. Despite the recent announcement of progress in these talks, it remains unclear whether Turkey will eventually sign a stand-by deal. The critics of the AKP’s economic policies argue that an agreement with the IMF is necessary to inject credibility into its economic policies and boost confidence in the market, contributing to a more sustainable recovery.

    However, some analysts believe that the medium term plan indicates that the government might implement the precautions without the IMF, while others speculate that the IMF could remain an option. Babacan also added to the sense of confusion. On the one hand, he said that Turkey will discuss the new medium term plan with the IMF. If both sides achieve consensus, Ankara will prefer to sign a stand-by deal. On the other hand, he maintained that although an IMF loan would help the Turkish economy, the IMF financing was not necessary for the implementation of the plan. He added that the plan was prepared on the assumption that in case an agreement was reached with the IMF, the extra resources would be channeled into the domestic market directly, in order that the banking sector could distribute money for private consumption and investment (www.cnnturk.com, September 16).

    The IMF welcomed the plan and found it realistic, reflecting the impact of the global financial crisis on Turkey. In addition to the fiscal rule, the announcement supported Ankara’s plan to cut the ratio of public debt to GDP. It called on Turkey to adopt supporting policies and structural reforms, including measures to address areas that create spending pressures, so that Ankara might achieve its goal of controlling public debt (www.cnnturk.com, September 17).

    Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that Turkey had survived the crisis without IMF loans. It could continue its path without IMF assistance and would not accept IMF requirements concerning taxes and spending. Therefore, the future of an IMF deal remains uncertain (Hurriyet Daily News, September 18).

    Another major aspect of the plan is that it does not foresee any major hikes in corporate, income and value-added taxes, which equally motivates the government to restrict IMF involvement. Although there were widespread expectations that the government might opt for tax increases to reduce the budget deficit burden, it refrained from pursuing this policy. This decision partly reflects the government’s desire to limit the effect of the economic recovery plan on consumers and the markets, by avoiding policies that might curb economic activity. The government believes that the Turkish economy could recover quickly based on its own dynamics, as long as it is kept vibrant, once the global economic environment starts to improve.

    One factor that boosts the government’s self-confidence is the condition of the Turkish banking sector. Babacan, therefore, argued that unlike other Western economies where the collapse of the financial institutions triggered the economic crisis, the Turkish banking system remained intact and was in good condition. Consequently, he expects a rather smooth economic recovery, centered on the private sector (www.cnnturk.com, September 16).

    Despite the government’s positive outlook on the Turkish economy’s vibrancy, the implementation of the plan and a sustainable economic recovery will also depend upon developments in the global economy. Moreover, the government’s ability to withstand the spending pressures to be generated by the next general election slated for 2011 will be a major test of its determination to reduce public debt, a core element of Turkey’s medium-term economic plan.

    https://jamestown.org/program/turkey-proceeds-with-its-economic-recovery-plans/

  • Turkish Economy Moves out of Freefall: Recovery Requires More Time

    Turkish Economy Moves out of Freefall: Recovery Requires More Time

    Turkish Economy Moves out of Freefall: Recovery Requires More Time

    Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 6 Issue: 154
    August 11, 2009
    By: Saban Kardas
    The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) released its June figures on the industrial production index, which gave mixed signals concerning the influence of the economic crisis on the Turkish economy (www.turkstat.gov.tr, Press Release, August 10). The figures show that although industrial output is still down from last year’s levels, industrial production is moving upward. The Turkish economy is no longer in the free fall, but a permanent economic recovery might not materialize soon.

    Industrial production dropped by 9.7 percent in June 2009 on a year-on-year basis, maintaining a continuous decline since the second half of 2008. After industrial production contracted by a record 23.8 percent in February, the decline in industrial output started to slow down in March, and this process has continued (EDM, June 11). As a sign of this partial recovery, in June the contraction rate dropped to single digits for the first time since November 2008. Moreover, in June industrial output increased by 7.3 percent compared to May (www.turkstat.gov.tr, August 10). This trend follows on the previous month. In May, TurkStat announced that industrial output increased by 0.8 percent compared to April (www.cnnturk.com, July 31).

    According to the main industrial groupings (MIG’s) classification, the highest decline in June compared with the previous year was in capital goods -by 29.7 percent. Production declined by 10.6 percent in manufacturing industry, 7.9 percent in mining, and 7 percent in energy.

    Economists suggest that the slowing of the decline over four consecutive months and the rise in output on a month-on-month basis has bolstered expectations that the contraction might be bottoming out. Tanil Kucuk, the Chairman of the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO), said that although 9.7 percent is a very high rate of decline under normal conditions, “looking at the economic situation for the past year, we consider this development the lesser of two evils and find it promising” (Hurriyet Daily News, August 10).

    Experts believe that there is a visible upturn in the Turkish economy. Recently released economic figures also lend partial support to this optimistic outlook. Data released by the Central Bank showed that the current account deficit dropped 65 percent in June on a year-on-year basis. In the first half of 2009, the current account deficit was also down 75.7 percent compared to the same period last year (www.ntvmsnbc.com, August 10). According to the projections of TurkStat based on the figures from the first half of 2008, Turkey’s foreign trade deficit is likely to decrease by the end of the year and will drop to $27.2 billion (Referans, August 11). At the end of 2008, Turkey’s foreign trade balance recorded a $69.8 billion deficit (Milliyet, January 30). The exponentially growing foreign account deficit and foreign trade deficit were major concerns for the Turkish economy prior to the global financial crisis. The slowdown brought about by the crisis had a positive effect by curbing Turkey’s imports. Although exports also declined, as a result of the shrinking global economy, the Central Bank estimates that Turkey’s export volume will grow as the global economy starts to recover.

    The improvement is attributed largely to the economic recovery plans which the government launched in the first half of the year. Through several stimulus packages, the government introduced temporary tax cuts on automobiles, home appliances and housing in order to generate domestic demand and reduce the impact of the crisis on the country (EDM, March 16). The effect of the economic packages in this recovery is evident, especially in household appliances production, where there is a clear increase. The production of durable consumer goods increased by 7.2 percent and perishable consumer goods increased by 1.8 percent. However, the production decline within the automotive sector has continued (www.turkstat.gov.tr, August 10).

    Nonetheless, experts estimate that the effect of the domestic demand generated by the stimulus packages might wane after August. Therefore, they expect the contraction in the economy to persist in the third quarter of 2009, and perhaps beyond (www.ntvmsnbc.com, August 10). Therefore, though finding the recent figures promising, the representatives of industrialists had expected more than “hope” and called on the government to take additional precautions to get the country out of recession (Anadolu Ajansi, August 10).

    However, given the heavy costs of the previous packages on the treasury, the government is unlikely to pass a large-scale stimulus package. Due to the public spending ahead of the March local elections and the declining state revenues as a result of the crisis, the budget deficit has already surpassed the estimates at the beginning of the year. While the deficit is expected to reach TL 70 billion at the end of the year, the government is trying to keep it within the range of TL 60 billion. Toward this end, it has already raised some taxes and announced cuts in spending, including healthcare. Therefore, rather than introducing new packages to stimulate demand, the government is working on new measures to narrow the budget deficit (Radikal, July 23). Although tax hikes and limitations on government spending might narrow the gap, they may also curb demand and negatively affect growth.

    The Turkish economy may no longer be in free fall, but it is unclear how sustainable the recovery might prove. Since the effect of the domestic stimulus packages appears to be short-lived and the government is unlikely to initiate any new stimulus packages, the Turkish economy’s sustainable recovery depends on external demand, and hence developments within the global economy.

    Fortunately, the upward trend in the Turkish economy is accompanied by the recent news coming from the world markets. American, Chinese and other large economies also reported the positive effect of economic packages in preventing the deepening of the global recession. While signs of recovery have raised hopes that the global economic downturn might be coming to an end, it is too early to expect an expanding external demand to stimulate the Turkish economy. Therefore, it might take more time before Turkey can move out of the recession.

    https://jamestown.org/program/turkish-economy-moves-out-of-freefall-recovery-requires-more-time/
  • ‘New Economy’ and Barack Obama

    ‘New Economy’ and Barack Obama

    My friend went to hear Charles Krauthammer.  He listened with 25 others in a closed room.  What he says here, is NOT second-hand but first-hand.

    William Barden <wbarden1@twcny.rr.com>

    ——————————————————————————————————–

    Subj: Charles Krauthammer Speech/Comments on the ‘New

    Economy’ and Barack Obama

    To my friends & associates:

    Last Monday was a profound evening, hearing Dr. Charles Krauthammer speak to the Center for the American Experiment.  He is a brilliant intellectual, seasoned and articulate. He is forthright and careful in his analysis, and never resorts to emotions or personal insults. He is NOT a fear monger nor an extremist in his comments and views.  He is a fiscal conservative, and has a Pulitzer prize for writing.  He is a frequent contributor to Fox News and writes weekly for the Washington Post.  The entire room was held spellbound during his talk.  I have shared this with many of you and several have asked me to summarize his comments, as we are living in uncharted waters economically and internationally.  Even two Dems at my table agreed with everything he said! If you feel like forwarding this to those who are open minded and have not ‘drunk the Kool-Aid’, feel free.

    A summary of his comments:

    1.  Mr. Obama is a very intellectual, charming individual.  He is not to be underestimated. He is a ‘cool customer’ who doesn’t show his emotions. It’s very hard to know what’s ‘behind the mask’.  Taking down the Clinton dynasty from a political neophyte was an amazing accomplishment.  The Clintons still do not understand what hit them.  Obama was in the perfect place at the perfect time.

    2.  Obama has political skills comparable to Reagan and Clinton.  He has a way of making you think he’s on your side, agreeing with your position, while doing the opposite.  Pay no attnention to what he SAYS; rather, watch what he DOES!

    3.  Obama has a ruthless quest for power.  He did not come to Washington to make something out of himself, but rather to change everything, including dismantling capitalism.  He can’t be straightforward on his ambitions, as the public would not go along.  He has a heavy hand, and wants to ‘level the playing field’ with income redistribution and punishment of the achievers of society.  He would like to model the USA to Great Britain or Canada .

    4.  His three main goals are to control ENERGY, PUBLIC EDUCATION, and NATIONAL HEALTHCARE by the Federal government  He doesn’t care about the auto or financial services industries, but got them as an early bonus.  The cap and trade will add costs to everything and stifle growth. Paying for FREE college education is his goal.  Most scary is his healthcare program, because if you make it FREE and add 46,000,000 people to a Medicare-type single-payer system, the costs will go through the roof.  The only way to control costs is with massive RATIONING of services, like in Canada .  God forbid.

    5.  He’s surrounded himself with mostly far-left academic types. No one around him has ever run even a candy store. But they’re going to try and run the auto, financial, banking and other industries. This obviously can’t work in the long run. Obama’s not a socialist; rather a far-left secular progressive bent on nothing short of revolution. He ran as a mo derate, but will govern from the hard left. Again, watch what he does, not what he says.

    6.  Obama doesn’t really see himself as President of the USA , more as a ruler over the world.  He sees himself above it all, trying to orchestrate and coordinate various countries and their agendas.  He sees moral equivalence in all cultures.  His apology tour in Germany and England was a prime example of how he sees America , as an imperialist nation that has been arrogant, rather than a great noble nation that has at times made errors.  This is the first President ever who has chastised our allies and appeased our enemies!

    7.  He’s now handing out goodies. He hopes that the bill (and pain) will not ‘come due’ until after he’s reelected in 2012.  He’d like to blame all problems on Bush from the past, and hopefully his successor in the future.  He has a huge ego, and Mr. Krauthammer believes he is a narcissist.

    8.  Republicans are in the wilderness for a while, but will emerge strong. We’re ‘pining’ for another Reagan, but there’ll never be another like him.  He believes Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty and Bobby Jindahl (except for his terrible speech in Feb.) are the future of the party. Newt Gingrich is brilliant, but has baggage. Sarah Palin is sincere and intelligent, but needs to really be seriously boning up on facts and information if she’s to be a serious candidate in the future. We need to return to the party of lower taxes, smaller government, personal responsibility, strong national defense, and states’ rights.

    9.  The current level of spending is irresponsible & outrageous. We’re spending trillions that we don’t

    have. This could lead to hyper inflation, depression or worse. No country has ever spent themselves into prosperity. The media is giving Obama, Reid and Pelosi a pass because they love their agenda. But eventually the bill will come due and people will realize the huge bailouts didn’t work, nor will the stimulus pkg. These were trillion-dollar payoffs to Obama’s allies, unions and the Congress to placate the left, so he can get support for #4 above.

    10.  The election was over in mid-September when Lehman Brothers failed. Fear and panic swept in, we had an unpopular President, and the war was grinding on indefinitely without a clear outcome. The people are in pain, and the mantra of ‘change’ caused people to act emotionally. Any Dem would have won this election; it was surprising is was as close as it was.

    11.  In 2012, if the unemployment rate is over 10%, Republicans will be swept back into power.  If it’s under 8%, the Dems continue to roll.  If it’s between 8-10%, it’ll be a dogfight. It’ll all be about the economy.

    I hope this gets you really thinking about what’s happening in Washington and Congress. There’s a left-wing revolution going on, according to Krauthammer, and he encourages us to keep the faith and join the loyal resistance. The work will be hard, but we’re right on most issues and can reclaim our country, before it’s far too late.

  • Turkey Reports Signs of Economic Recovery

    Turkey Reports Signs of Economic Recovery

    Turkey Reports Signs of Economic Recovery

    Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 6 Issue: 112
    June 11, 2009
    By: Saban Kardas
    Data recently released by the Turkish Statistics Institute (TurkStat) has raised expectations that the economy might be on its way to recovery. According to TurkStat, the capacity utilization rate within the Turkish manufacturing sector increased for the third consecutive month in May (www.tuik.gov.tr, June 10). Although the improvement is attributed largely to the AKP government’s economic stimulus packages, it remains uncertain whether domestic demand alone can sustain economic development.

    Starting in the second half of 2008, the Turkish economy felt the impact of the global financial crisis: industrial production output, exports, economic growth and industrial capacity utilization rates dropped dramatically, while unemployment soared (EDM, February 18). In January and February, the industrial capacity utilization rate dropped to 63.8 percent and hit a record low in the last two decades, presenting the starkest evidence of the contraction within the Turkish economy. In an attempt to prevent a deeper recession, the Central Bank gradually cut its interest rates. In addition, the AKP government, which was under fire for failing to take effective precautions, adopted several economic packages. In March, temporary tax cuts were introduced in major sectors including automotive, housing and household appliances in order to stimulate domestic demand (EDM, March 16).

    Recent economic trends indicate that these precautions slowed the pace of the downturn. In March, the capacity utilization rate increased for the first time since September 2008 and has continued to climb; it moved from 63.8 percent in February to 64.7 in March, and to 66.8 in April and 70.4 percent in May.

    While confirming this trend, TurkStat’s report highlighted low domestic and foreign demand as the major factors negatively affecting the capacity utilization. Although in May the capacity utilization rate indicated a 12 percent decline compared to the previous year, demonstrating the extent of the economic downturn, the report provided other signs of recovery. The production volume in May increased by 7.6 percent compared to April, which is estimated to continue growing by 6.7 percent in June. The sales volume increased by 6.4 percent in May and this is forecast to continue in June (www.tuik.gov.tr, June 10).

    The recent figures were interpreted by government officials as a sign that Turkey might be able to mitigate the full impact of the crisis. The Minister of Trade and Industry Nihat Ergun attributed the growth in the capacity utilization to the production triggered by the government’s earlier economic packages. He argued that a slow recovery was now under way. Nonetheless, he avoided drawing an overly optimistic picture, and added that without the complementary expansion in foreign demand, the recovery might be short-lived (www.cnnturk.com, June 10).

    Indeed, following the introduction of the latest economic package, several companies that were considering halting their production dropped these plans. Likewise, many companies that had applied for the government sponsored short term pay compensation, in order not to lay off their employees stopped receiving those benefits and began paying full salaries (Zaman, April 13). Moreover, a report published by an Ankara-based think-tank found that a majority of the automotive sales were financed by consumer savings and seller credits, rather than bank loans. The report suggested that this might prove an important indicator, signaling the growing consumer confidence in the market -a key factor for economic recovery (www.tepav.org.tr, June 4).

    The stimulus package has provided temporary relief, but it is uncertain what will occur after the tax incentives expire this month. Since the global economy is unlikely to recover in the short term, foreign demand cannot serve as the main stimulant for the Turkish economy. Therefore, the key question might be whether Turkey’s domestic demand can sustain its economic growth. Some experts maintain that with improved economic coordination and more intensive public involvement in the functioning of the economy, Turkey can stimulate domestic demand and maintain its economic growth (www.tepav.org.tr, May 27). However, other analysts expect that, short of any major surge in foreign demand, it will be difficult to sustain such economic growth in the second half of 2009. On the contrary, they forecast that the automotive sector is likely to face “renewed sharp contraction in the second half of 2009 and a slow recovery beyond that” (Hurriyet Daily News, May 29).

    Since the automotive sector is one of the engines of Turkish economic development, the government needs to implement additional measures to redress the deficit caused by this contraction. With such considerations in mind, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the fifth economic incentives package on June 4. The package seeks to enhance the economy’s competitive power and eliminate regional discrepancies through region, sector and project specific incentives and investments. Businesses investing in poorer regions such as in eastern Turkey will be entitled to free land, tax breaks on corporate taxation, and government assistance for employees’ social security premiums, etc. An additional package aims to reduce unemployment by funding various seasonal public works, such as repairing schools and hospitals and planting trees, as well as providing vocational training. With this new package, the total cost of the stimulus packages for 2009 and 2010 is expected to reach 60 billion TL ($38.7 billion) (www.32gunhaber.com, June 4).

    The government’s economic policy is driven by the need to reduce the impact of the crisis on households to prevent the erosion of its political popularity. In this context, it has elongated the negotiations with the IMF to sign a loan deal, which might have imposed tighter budgetary rules on public spending. Recent reports suggest that in response to the signs of recovery, the treasury has an alternative plan to continue the economic program without a stand-by agreement with the IMF (Referans, May 20). The government has managed to slow the downturn and escape a deep recession, but it is still too early to determine when the Turkish economy will experience a permanent recovery. Moreover, if the global crisis continues beyond 2009 the heavy financial burden of the stimulus packages on the budget might return to haunt the Turkish economy, and possibly damage the government’s popularity.

    https://jamestown.org/program/turkey-reports-signs-of-economic-recovery/