Turkish Forum

Tag: Bashar Assad regime

  • Assad has won 4th term, what’s next?

    Assad has won 4th term, what’s next?

    assad banner 2021 afp
    People walk by an image of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on 10 May 2021 (AFP)

    Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was re-elected for the 4th term in office with 95.1% of the votes. According to Assad’s government, the election results proved Syria is functioning normally.

    This will extend his rule over a country despite harsh criticism from the United States, Germany, Italy, France and Turkey as well as Assad’s opponents in the country said the vote was illegitimate.

    Despite their condemnation of his brutal and authoritative regime during the decade-long Syrian civil war, imposing economic sanctions and militarily backing his opponents, the Syrian leader was able to remain in power and save the country from the territorial divide. Like a true captain of the wrecked ship, Bashar Al-Assad did not leave the war-torn country and, what’s important, did not let it collapse despite West’s multiple efforts to intervene.

    With Russia’s support, Assad arranged constant humanitarian help flows to the country and save the sovereignty of secular state despite endless clashes and civil war in the country. Moreover, Assad assured his supporters get access to education and healthcare while his government provided jobs to workers.

    Prior to the elections, the White House have warned Syrian President that it would not recognize the result of upcoming presidential election unless the voting is free, fair, and supervised by the United Nations while Biden administration said it had no plans to restart the dialogue “any time soon” claiming the Assad government failed to restore legitimacy in the country. With no doubts such open statements mean the West will continue its pressure to the Assad’s regime and will try to remove him from his post demonstrating a double standard “legitimacy” at its best.

  • SYRIA FILES : Forcing Syrians to Flee the Country is a Tactic of the Syrian Regime

    SYRIA FILES : Forcing Syrians to Flee the Country is a Tactic of the Syrian Regime

    Forcing Syrians to Flee the Country is a Tactic of the Syrian Regime

    Since the beginning of the refugee crisis in the Syrian civil war, most astute observers of the conflict have said that the ultimate long-term solution for the Syrian refugee crisis is building peace and stability in the country to enable refugees to freely go back to their homes and continue their lives from the point when they left. The belated attempts by the international community to accept some refugees was only a bandage for the growing and deepening problem of Syrian refugees. In the absence of a feasible long-term solution it is unrealistic to expect the flow of refugees from the conflict to end.

    Last week, we saw this reality in Syria once more when the intensifying Russian airstrikes in northern Syria started to generate another major wave of refugees coming to Turkey. Since the beginning of the crisis, there has been a correlation between any intensification of the crisis and the number of refugees fleeing to neighboring countries. Since the beginning of the airstrikes, the use of Scud missiles and chemical weapons, we have seen a huge number of Syrian civilians fearing the increasingly violent war machine of Bashar Assad’s regime fleeing to adjacent countries. With the rise of DAESH, we saw another major wave, this time from Iraq as well as Syria. The most significant wave of refugees was from Kobani, which probably had one of the highest numbers in just a few days, and from Sinjar in northern Iraq. Later, with the People’s Protection Units’ (YPG) capture of Tal Abyad, another major flow of refugees started. Later, some human rights group reported that some of these people were forcefully evicted from their homes by YPG forces. In the most recent phase of the conflict with Russian airstrikes and their gradual intensification on opposition-held territories, we started to see another major wave of refugees.

    Since the intensification of the attacks in the Turkmen Mountain region against the Turkmens there, observers of the refugee problem have pointed to the danger of the continuation of similar attacks in other parts of Syria, which could generate similar refugee problems. The international community mostly ignored these calls and warnings, and now we are facing another critical juncture in the crisis with increasing attacks on areas surrounding Aleppo. Last week, Turkish authorities indicated that at least 70,000 people fleeing heavy airstrikes on their towns and cities were walking toward the Turkish border. Some 20,000 of them have already gathered on the Turkish border. Considering the distance, the weather conditions and increasing attacks, these people face serious dangers. In a similar way, the Assad regime, with the support of the Russian air force, has been starving towns as a weapon through sieges in recent months. Last month, dozens of people in the town of Madaya died from starvation. Many observers warned that the use of this tactic could generate a serious humanitarian crisis. However, the reaction from the international community was insufficient to deter the regime from using similar tactics in other areas. As suspected, now the regime uses this tactic in various parts of Syria and uses the threat of starving Syrians to empty cities and towns.

    The creation of this new crisis shows that the regime continues to use the tactic of emptying towns and cities to capture territory. From the beginning, the regime tried to scare and threaten civilians, and now with the use of starvation, various chemical agents, barrel bombs and the Russian air force, a critical point has been reached, and a majority of Syrians may find that leaving the country is the best and last course of action. This means that if the regime is not stopped from using this horrendous tactic – threatening its own citizens, we will face more refugees and internally displaced people in the coming months. It must be remembered that the regime used the most horrible tactic of starving people while preparing for the talks in Geneva, and the intensifying of airstrikes took place, while their representatives were making their case to the U.N. special envoy. This shows the sincerity of the Syrian regime with regard to a political solution and the outcome of the inaction of the international community. In the coming days and weeks, we need to be cautious about what the Syrian regime means concerning a solution, as the regime and its allies may think that emptying most of the country is a viable solution to win the war.

    [Daily Sabah, February 8, 2016]
  • The Coalition’s quagmire with Syrian Kurds

    The Coalition’s quagmire with Syrian Kurds

    Kurdish People’s Protection Units fighters drive a tank at the eastern entrances to the town of Tell Abyad in the northern countryside of Raqqa, Syria, June 14, 2015.  (photo by REUTERS/Rodi Said)

     

    Syrian Kurdish battlefield successes in the past month have reinforced Coalition efforts to liberate the Islamic State (IS) stronghold of Raqqa. Having expelled IS from safe havens in eastern Syria with Coalition military support, including the strategic border town of Tell Abyad, the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) are regarded as the only reliable and effective ground force to continue the momentum. Yet a deeper look into local dynamics challenges this narrative and raises concerns about strategic end-states. Most Sunni Arab populations may despise IS; however, they also oppose the YPG and its political wing, the Kurdish nationalist Democratic Union Party (PYD), and seek to prevent Syrian Kurds from moving forward into non-Kurdish territories. Any hopes for a Kurdish-led offensive without an effective local Arab partner will not only enhance support for IS and other radical groups, but will have a backlash on Kurdish populations and deepen ethnic, resource and territorial conflicts in Syria.

    Summary⎙ Print A deeper look into local dynamics challenges the narrative that the Kurdish People’s Protection Units is the only reliable and effective ground force against the Islamic State, and raises concerns about strategic end-states.
    Author Denise Natali Posted July 14, 2015

    Liberating Raqqa is highly politicized and involves more than expelling IS from the region. One of the immediate aims of the Coalition and PYD is to cut IS’ supply route that is centered on Jarablus, which would leave IS with one remaining border point with Turkey at Araz. The PYD also seeks to rid all radical Islamist elements from the region beyond IS, to include the terrorist group Jabhat al-Nusra. A PYD-controlled Jarablus would link the Kurdish territories of Afrin and Kobani and create a Kurdish belt across 200 kilometers (124 miles) of border with Turkey.

    Arab groups and Turkey have harshly reacted to Kurdish territorial gains. Immediately after PYD took Tell Abyad, which has a Kurdish minority population, IS retaliated with suicide attacks in other Kurdish-controlled territories in Kobani and Hasakah. Leaders from the Islamist militant group Ahrar al-Sham, which has support in Turkey, have also condemned PYD, asserting that the “territorial integrity of Syria is a red line for Syrian opposition and revolutionary forces.” Kurdish advances in Tell Abyad have also had repercussions on Kurdish-Arab relations outside of Raqqa. In Aleppo, the regional assembly of Syrian opposition forces have suspended their September 2014 agreement that allowed the PYD to administer Kurdish neighborhoods in the city. Ankara has also reacted to PYD territorial expansionism, reaffirming its demands for a 10-kilometer (6.2-mile)-deep security zone at Jarablus to prevent a Kurdish-controlled border area.

    These dynamics will prevent the YPG from liberating Raqqa city — which has no native Kurdish populations — even if the Coalition intensifies airstrikes. Raqqa has symbolic value not only for IS but for Sunni Arab groups who have been resisting the Syrian regime since the civil war started in 2011. After Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces pulled out of Raqqa in 2012, it was largely controlled by Ahrar al-Sham and then by Jabhat al-Nusra before being taken over by IS in 2014.

    These radical groups remain powerful throughout the province and would not cede territories or resources to the Kurds, particularly given Raqqa’s strategic position on the Euphrates and its dams that source electricity and local war economies. Radical Islamic and opposition groups in the region could also mobilize local Sunni Arab tribes against the YPG and its Syrian Kurdish affiliates.

    Equally problematic is how the PYD could secure and govern Raqqa and other former IS safe havens. To be sure, the PYD has attempted to create power-sharing arrangements in territories it has retaken from IS, particularly areas with mixed populations. Since expelling IS from Tell Abyad, referred to by Kurds as Girê Spî, the PYD-backed Rojava Democratic Society Movement (TEV-DEM) has brought together different communities of Armenians, Turcoman and Arabs in a localized “constituent assembly.”

    The PYD also continues to stress that it does not seek independence but rather distinct self-rule local administrations in collaboration with other groups. In fact, the PYG has been able to expel IS and secure territories in eastern Syria only by establishing pacts with different Syrian rebel groups and regime forces: Jabhat al-Nusra (2012 and early 2014) in Ras al-Ain (Serekaniye), Assad forces and Sunni Arab tribes in Qamishli, with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in Kobani and Tell Abyad, and Islamic groups in Aleppo. The co-chairman of the Syrian Kurdish canton of Jazirah is the head of the Sunni Arab Shammar tribe.

    Still, in Raqqa there are no Syrian opposition groups that the PYD can rely on to share power since most are dominated by Jabhat al-Nusra. FSA forces are weak and symbolic at best, reflecting the inefficacy of the train and equip program — which has trained only about 75 forces per month — and the near absence of Syrians willing to fight IS as a priority and not Assad.

    These trends are shaped by regional politics and have deepened political rifts. While most Sunni Arab opposition groups regard the Syrian regime as much or more of a threat than IS, the PYD considers Assad as the only potential partner to fight IS and other radical groups. Iran also continues to influence Damascus and the Syrian Kurdish regions, both of which are at odds with the Coalition’s Sunni Arab and Turkish partners.

    These dynamics have implications for US and Coalition strategy and expectations in Syria. Intensifying airstrikes against IS in the absence of reliable Arab partners and Turkish help, even in part, risks undermining Kurdish battlefield successes and creating a backlash on local populations. While coordinating with the PYD militarily, the United States should seek ways to minimize further local fragmentation by supporting shared border security, power sharing, commerce and reconstruction in IS-free territories among Syrian Kurds, Arabs and Turkey. These challenges beg the larger question of what Syria will look like once IS has been contained and who can assure local stability and under what terms. Kurdish territorial gains without sufficient local support and capacity to govern is a recipe for political failure and future instability.

    Denise Natali
    Columnist

    Denise Natali is a columnist for Al-Monitor. She is a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University where she specializes on regional energy politics, Middle East politics and the Kurdish issue. The views expressed are her own and do not reflect the official policy or position of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense or the US government.

  • Assad win may be Syria’s best option – ex-CIA chief Michael Hayden

    Assad win may be Syria’s best option – ex-CIA chief Michael Hayden

    Syrian President Bashar Al Assad TV interview in Damascus

    Photo: EPA

    The sectarian bloodbath in Syria is such a threat to regional security that a victory for Bashar al-Assad’s regime could the best outcome to hope for, a former CIA chief said Thursday.

    Washington condemned Assad’s conduct of the conflict, threatened air strikes after he was accused of targeting civilians with chemical weapons and has demanded he step down.

    The United States is also supplying millions of dollars in “non-lethal” aid to some of the rebel groups fighting Assad’s rule.

    But Michael Hayden, the retired US Air Force general who until 2009 was head of the Central Intelligence Agency, said a rebel win was not one of the three possible outcomes he foresees for the conflict.

    “Option three is Assad wins,” Hayden told the annual Jamestown Foundation conference of terror experts.

    “And I must tell you at the moment, as ugly as it sounds, I’m kind of trending toward option three as the best out of three very, very ugly possible outcomes,” he said.

    The first possible outcome he cited was for ongoing conflict between ever more extreme Sunni and Shiite factions.

    The rebel groups are dominated by Sunni Muslims, while Assad is generally backed by Syria’s Alawite, Shiite and Christian minorities.

    And the second outcome, which Hayden deemed the most likely, was the “dissolution of Syria” and the end of a single state within the borders defined by a 1916 treaty between the French and British empires.

    “It means the end of the Sykes-Picot (Agreement), it sets in motion the dissolution of all the artificial states created after World War I,” he said.

    The British diplomat Mark Sykes and a French counterpart Francois Georges Picot divided the Middle East into zones of influence that later served as the frontiers of independent Arab states.

    A breakdown in the century-old settlement could spread chaos in Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq, Hayden warned.

    “I greatly fear the dissolution of the state. A de facto dissolution of Sykes-Picot,” Hayden said.

    “And now we have a new ungoverned space, at the crossroads of the civilization.

    “The dominant story going on in Syria is a Sunni fundamentalist takeover of a significant part of the Middle East geography, the explosion of the Syrian state and of the Levant as we know it.”

    Fighting erupted in Syria in early 2011, when Assad launched a crackdown on pro-democracy protests and has since evolved into a full-blown civil war that has claimed an estimated 126,000 lives.

    Assad, backed by Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah militia, is locked in combat with a diverse group of Sunni rebel factions which are increasingly dominated by hardline jihadist groups.

    Voice of Russia, AFP

    US, CIA, Syria, intelligence, Bashar Assad, Syrian opposition, intelligence agent, Syrian conflict, Syrian government, Politics

  • Turkey says Syria’s al-Assad can stay

    Editor’s Note: The following report is excerpted from Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin, the premium online newsletter published by the founder of WND. Subscriptions are $99 a year or, for monthly trials, just $9.95 per month for credit card users, and provide instant access for the complete reports.

    WASHINGTON – Turkey has signaled that it wants to continue discussions with Iran over the future of Syria without the removal of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as a prerequisite, according to a report in Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin.

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    Such a development appears to have emerged in discussions Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently held with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Tehran.

    Turkish officials are quick to point out, however, that this does not signal any support Erdogan may have for al-Assad.

    In recent weeks, Erdogan has backed off from recent hard positions he has taken toward Syria such as demanding the North Atlantic Treaty Organization – of which Turkey is a member – respond militarily first to the shoot-down of a Turkish jet fighter over Syria and then the mortar attack from Syria on a border village.

    While Turkey seeks to assert its influence throughout the Middle East in view of the major political changes taking place there, Erdogan has had to tread carefully out of concern that it will resurrect the claim that he is attempting to reestablish the Ottoman Empire. The Arab countries in the region still have vivid memories of living under the Ottoman that often was harsh and deadly.

    For some time, Turkey has sought to extend its influence under a policy of “zero problems with neighbors” from the Middle East to Central Asia where the Ottoman influence was predominant for centuries.

    This has become apparent in handling the prickly issue of its neighbor Syria, where a virtual civil war is under way while Syrian refugees continue to flow into Turkey, which has decided to host the Syrian opposition in wanting to oust al-Assad.

    While allied with Sunni Saudi Arabia, Sunni Turkey has sought to reach out to Shi’ite Iran, which also exerts considerable influence in the region and is allied with the Shi’ite Alawite regime of al-Assad. The Saudi kingdom along with Sunni Qatar has sought the removal of al-Assad and has been working through Turkey to try and make that happen.

    Erdogan’s latest offer to Iran then forces Erdogan to walk a thin line between negotiating with Iran and placating Saudi Arabia, say analysts, and reflects a major departure from Turkey’s previous position. Yet, there are additional considerations Erdogan must take into account.

    Turkey has to cope with growing internal problems given its previous effort to oust al-Assad, who has threatened to unleash the large Kurdish and Alawite minorities that populate Turkey. This development could create considerable unrest in Turkey.

    And Turkey sees the region succumbing to the rise of Islamist movements and the “discrediting of Arab secularist police states,” according to the open source intelligence group Stratfor.

    “The transition from secular autocracy will be tumultuous, but the more leverage Turkey has with this Pan-Arab Islamist movement, the better prepared it will be to manage its neighborhood,” a Stratfor report said.

    “An opportunity is thus developing for Turkey in which it can assert its Islamist credentials alongside its ability to compete effectively with Iran and to deal with the West,” it said.

    “Turkey is uniquely positioned to steer the Islamist movement while the Arab street still requires a regional backer in its challenge to the old regimes and to keep Iran at bay,” the report added. “But Arab attitudes toward Turkey will shift with time as Turkey’s expectations of a growing sphere of influence in the Arab world inevitably clash with the Muslim Brotherhood’s vision of a Pan-Arab Islamist movement following its own course, as opposed to one set by Ankara.”

    Turkey’s latest overture with Iran underscores what analysts have been suggesting about its outlook toward Syria: Ankara wants to avoid regime change in Syria, because of the serious consequences of the alternatives.

    Syria could be plunged further into a civil war, prompting massive humanitarian movements that would be catastrophic for the region and bring about further instability in already fragile countries such as Lebanon and Iraq.

    Keep in touch with the most important breaking news stories about critical developments around the globe with Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin, the premium, online intelligence news source edited and published by the founder of WND.

    via Turkey says Syria’s al-Assad can stay.

  • Russia helps U.S., Syria establish contact, Turkey in shock

    Russia helps U.S., Syria establish contact, Turkey in shock

    With a little bit of help from Russia, the Americans and the Syrians have established contact with each other, sending shockwaves in Turkey, which has blamed Moscow and Beijing for the continuation of strife in Syria.

    AP In this September 28, 2012 photo, Sergey Lavrov, Foreign Minister of Russia, addresses U.N. General Assembly. He has said that Moscow had helped American experts to establish contact with Syria on the subject of chemical weapons.
    AP In this September 28, 2012 photo, Sergey Lavrov, Foreign Minister of Russia, addresses U.N. General Assembly. He has said that Moscow had helped American experts to establish contact with Syria on the subject of chemical weapons.

    Addressing the American media on Thursday, Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov dropped a bombshell. He said that Moscow had helped the American experts to establish contact with the Syrians on the subject of chemical weapons. “I hope I won’t disclose any big secret, but we have helped American experts establish contact with the Syrians on this issue, and we have received explanations and assurances that the Syrian government is guarding these facilities in the best possible way,” said Mr. Lavrov, as reported by Russia Today.

    He also added that Russia was not considering granting asylum to Syrian President Bashar Al Assad, in case he decided to quit office.

    “No, we won’t grant him asylum,” Mr. Lavrov said, pointing out that the Syrian President “was a friend of other countries northwest of Syria.”

    Lebanon’s Al Manar television website quoted its Arab sources in France as confirming that the U.S. delegation at the U.N. General Assembly annual session wanted to discuss with Syria, the issue of chemical weapons. The Syrian side pledged “with a Russian guarantee” that it would not use these weapons “inside Syria during the conflict between the government and the militant opposition”. However, the Syrian delegation was emphatic in stating that in case Syria was subjected to a foreign attack, in that case countries involved in inciting and participating in that attack would be legitimate targets “for the Syrian rockets… loaded with chemical warheads, including countries neighbouring Syria”.

    Coinciding with the Mr. Lavrov’s announcement of opening a U.S.-Syria dialogue track on chemical weapons, Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan went uncharacteristically ballistic—blaming both Russia and China of siding with Syria. His outburst against Moscow and Beijing was aired live on NTV, a leading Turkish television station.

    “The main source of disappointment is Russia. Let alone raising its voice against Syria, it stands by the massacre,” said Mr. Erdogan as reported by Reuters.

    “China stands by Russia, and although [Chinese President] Hu Jintao had told me they wouldn’t veto the plan [for a safe zone] for a third time, they did at the U.N. vote.” Mr. Erdogan described the position of Iran, a staunch Syria ally, as “impossible to understand”.

    Turkey has emerged as a frontline state against the Assad government, with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United States as allies.

    The bitter acrimony that this has caused between one time allies — Turkey and Syria — is climbing to new heights. Syria is now seriously considering arming Kurdish fighters for combat against

    Turkey, Al Manar said. Citing its “Kurdish sources,” close to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Kurdish Democratic Union Party in Syria, the website said that the Assad government “had sent a letter to Turkey saying that the Turkish interference in Syria would prompt Damascus to arm every Kurdish man in both Turkey and Syria”.

    The Syrian government is apparently considering supplying the Kurds advanced weaponry including the anti-tank Kornet rockets, as it considers playing its “Kurdish card”.

    Adding psychological warfare to its arsenal, the Syrian army has been sending cellphone text messages nationwide to the armed opposition stating: “Game Over”. These messages have also said that the countdown to evict the foreign fighters from Syria had begun, Associated Press reported.

    Keywords: Syria uprising, Bashar Assad regime, U.S.-Syria contact, chemical weapons, Turkey-Syria ties

    via The Hindu : News / International : Russia helps U.S., Syria establish contact, Turkey in shock.