Tag: Annan plan

  • A Chance to Reunify Cyprus

    A Chance to Reunify Cyprus

    A barrier along the Green Line in Nicosia, the last divided capital of Europe.

    By MICHAEL MOLLER

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    It has often been said that Cyprus never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity. This maxim was being bandied about especially after the negative Greek Cypriot vote on reunification in 2004. Life was good in their south of the island then and there was no apparent cost to sticking with the status quo.

    A new reality has now imposed itself on the Greek Cypriots. The situation is dire and the immediate future does not look encouraging unless imaginative solutions are found. I firmly believe those solutions are now within reach.

    Here’s why. Economic and social conditions in the Turkish-controlled north are improving, creating a more level playing field between the two sides. Turkey is now an increasingly important player both regionally and internationally, and a major anchor of stability in a turbulent region.

    The ties between Turkey and Greece are now closer and friendlier, changing the framework within which the Cyprus problem has traditionally been viewed.

    Greece’s economic woes have changed its priorities. Its orientation is firmly anchored in Europe, and it is a steadfast supporter of Turkish accession to the European Union. At the same time, the high price Cyprus is now paying for its past symbiotic financial relationship with Greece may affect their future relationship.

    These new realities — good and bad — offer an opportunity to move forward on the long-sought solution for Cyprus.

    Five years ago, the Cyprus center of the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) published some startling assertions on the monetary benefits that would come within the first year of reunification. PRIO’s conservative estimate was that every Cypriot family would get an extra €2,500 per year.

    While the context has changed, the conclusion that reunification would bring increased prosperity would probably be similar today.

    The new Greek Cypriot president, with his solid pro-unification credentials, is well placed to propose bold measures toward a unified island with a greater common prosperity. And the Turkish Cypriot leadership is now in a stronger position than ever to negotiate a solution on more equal terms.

    Turkey’s European aspirations can no longer be denied. But part of that road goes through Cyprus, and the sooner that problem is solved, the sooner Turkey can be welcomed as a full member of a stronger and more integrated Europe.

    The European Union can no longer afford to consider Cyprus an irritating peripheral problem. Cyprus is part of Europe and as such, especially now, very much a European problem.

    It is time for a solid, united and active European policy and commitment to the reunification of the island based on a clear and shared conviction that it is in everyone’s vital interest.

    If not, we are looking at another bailout down the road and the risk of triggering further catastrophic consequences for the integrity of the European construct.

    However the fate of the European Union plays out, there are undeniable benefits in ensuring strong partnerships within the southern Mediterranean basin. The different economies and security, energy, water and other needs can only be strengthened through closer union.

    The United Nations has been a steady presence in the daily lives of Cypriots for almost 50 years. But it too must take heed of the new realities and realign its strategies.

    Cyprus has plenty of assets — geographical location, natural resources, a well-educated populations, infrastructure and now, once again in its long and tortured history, the attention of the international community.

    It is time to put them to good use.

    Michael Moller is a former United Nations special representative for Cyprus.

    A version of this op-ed appeared in print on April 3, 2013, in The International Herald Tribune.

    via A Chance to Reunify Cyprus – NYTimes.com.

  • Turkey Faces New Challenges  Over Cyprus

    Turkey Faces New Challenges Over Cyprus

    A protester yells at policemen during a protest by employees of soon-to-close Cyprus Popular Bank, the island’s second-largest lender, outside the Parliament in Nicosia, March 21, 2013. (photo by REUTERS/Andreas Manolis)
    Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/03/cyprus-gas-reserves-negotiation-moscow-concern-turkey.html#ixzz2ONezxHc0

    By: Semih Idiz for Al-Monitor Turkey Pulse

    Normally, an article on Cyprus would stir little excitement despite that UN peace keepers have been stationed between the Turkish North and Greek South of the Island for nearly forty years, and a formal peace has not been declared. Cyprus is not, after all, an active conflict zone, and has not been since the present status quo was established in 1974.

    About This Article

    Summary :

    Negotiations between Nicosia and Moscow over gas reserves off the southern Cyprus coast are being watched with concern by Ankara, which does not accept Nicosia’s claim to full sovereignty over these reserves, writes Semih Idiz.

    Author: Semih Idiz

    That was the year when Turkey invoked its “rights of guarantee” under international agreements and invaded Cyprus, following an Athens-led coup by Greek Cypriots aiming for union with Greece, which has been a historic red line for Turks.

    Today, however, eyes are focused on the Island and it has nothing to do with Turkey or Turkish Cypriots. By a strange quirk of history, it is the European Union that is being vilified by Greek Cypriots this time, as the ogre out to impoverish and destroy their nation.

    In fairness to them, few nations have been asked to swallow the kind of pill that they are asked to swallow. Imagine 10% of your savings being scooped off by the government against your will in order to get billions in assistance from the EU to prevent a collapse of the economy.

    What compounds the “Greek tragedy,” however, is that Greek Cypriots are damned if they do, and damned if they don’t. If they swallow the pill, they will be poorer than they were a few weeks ago. If they don’t, their economy faces total meltdown. It would be easy to surmise that there is an element of schadenfreude among Turkish officials observing these developments.

    But not all Turks feel that way. Besides Turkish officials are also following developments in Cyprus with growing concern. There are a number of reasons for this which could force the Cyprus problem to the top of the international agenda again, resulting in headaches for Ankara, too.

    One potential source of trouble is Russia, whose citizens have parked billions of Euros in offshore accounts in Greek Cyprus over the years, and who are now crying foul because they risk loosing large amounts of money. Moscow is angry at the EU and Nicosia for coming out with a bailout package behind its back, even though the matter involves the interests of tens of thousands of Russians.

    Meanwhile, the rejection of the EU’s bailout plan by the Greek Cypriot parliament has left Prime Minister Nicos Anastasiades with no choice but to turn to Moscow, “begging bowl in hand,” as some analysts are putting it, to try and secure the necessary funds from Russia for the EU’s bailout plan to come into force.

    EU officials also say Moscow has to contribute to saving the Greek Cypriot economy seeing as Russians have billions of Euros invested there. There is of course an irony here of epic proportions. The EU is relying on a non-EU power, with which it has economic and political rivalries on a number of levels, to save one of its own members.

    Ordinary Greek Cypriots must be wondering why they joined the EU if it is not there to help them on such a day, relying instead on Russia to do it. But more than one analyst suggested at the time that Greek Cypriots, who already had a relatively high standard of living, only joined the EU in 2007 because of the leverage they believed this would provide over Turkey.

    The assumption, according to these analysts, was that Ankara’s great desire for EU membership would place Nicosia in a position to dictate its terms for a settlement to the Cyprus problem. Whatever the merits of this argument, Ankara’s desire for EU membership did not make it “pliable” in the manner Greek Cypriots would have liked.

    On the other hand, while Turkey’s path to the EU may be blocked today due to the Cyprus problem, this has not prevented Turkey’s own economic take-off from happening over these past ten years. In fact, many Turks who look at Greece and Greek Cyprus today are wondering why Turkey should still push for membership in a union that is no longer enriching its members, but impoverishing them instead.

    Meanwhile, the Turkish government is following the discussions between Moscow and Nicosia with some consternation. The reason is that Nicosia appears prepared to transfer the lion’s share of the rights over the vast gas reserves said to exist off the southern coast of Cyprus to Russia, in return for financial assistance to overcome its economic crisis.

    Ankara, however, rejects sole Greek Cypriot sovereignty over these reserves, arguing that Turkish Cypriots also have a stake in them; not to mention Turkey’s own economic interests in the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkish officials have even suggested that if the Greek Cypriot administration insists on grabbing these reserves for itself, then Turkey will intervene militarily.

    What is certain, however, is that there will be complications for Turkey if Russia gains control over these reserves, leaving Ankara and Moscow at loggerheads. It is intriguing that while there is much reporting about the talks between Russia and Nicosia, few seem to be focusing on this very real problem.

    Meanwhile there are reports that Russia is not satisfied with just a share of the gas reserves, but has also asked Nicosia for military bases on the Island in order to bolster its presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, which has been weakened with the crisis in Syria, where Moscow has military bases.

    Turkish officials are said to be concerned with this prospect, too, given that Moscow has traditionally supported the Greek Cypriots at the Security Council when it comes to efforts at solving the Cyprus problem. It is unlikely, however, that Nicosia will, or even can, grant this request given that it is an EU member with links to NATO, not to mention the British sovereign bases that already exist on the Island.

    There are also those who argue that whatever Moscow’s interest in Cyprus may be, it has no interest in upsetting its ties with Turkey given the vast economic cooperation between the two countries, valued at tens of billions of dollars,  which are set to increase further and include the strategic field of energy.

    In the meantime it must be grating on the already frayed nerves of the Greek Cypriot to hear Western experts argue that succor for them may lie in Ankara, and not Moscow. Writing for the Financial Times (March 21) Timothy Ash, who is the head of emerging markets research at Standard Bank, had this to say: “Greek Cypriots must be thinking that with friends like these, (the EU and Russia, both seeking to extract their pound of flesh for any bailout) who needs enemies? Well, what if Cyprus begins to think outside the box, and what if it goes to its erstwhile enemy, Turkey, for assistance?”

    Ash suggests Turkey could provides 7 billion Euros [about $9 billion] in exchange for Greek Cyprus agreeing to the terms of the Annan peace plan for the unification of the island, which was also supported by the EU at the time, but which Greek Cypriots rejected overwhelmingly in a referendum in 2004. Turkish Cypriots had accepted the plan in their separate referendum.

    “Peace and unification on the island could then perhaps open up the energy reserves south of the island for joint exploration by Cypriot (Turkish and Greek) and Turkish companies” Ash says. This is an intriguing but highly unlikely prospect given deep rooted anti-Turkish sympathies embedded in the Greek Cypriot psyche.

    But who knows? Existential crises have concentrate minds in the past, forcing people to think in novel ways.  It is a slim possibility, but the same might happen in Cyprus, although no one should hold their breath.

    Semih İdiz is a contributing writer for Al-Monitor’s Turkey Pulse. A journalist who has been covering diplomacy and foreign-policy issues for major Turkish newspapers for 30 years, his opinion pieces can be followed in the English language Hurriyet Daily News. He can also be read in Taraf.

    Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/03/cyprus-gas-reserves-negotiation-moscow-concern-turkey.html#ixzz2OMv3e7Jn

  • Supporters of Syria Take Significant Steps, but No Endgame in Sight

    Supporters of Syria Take Significant Steps, but No Endgame in Sight

    Supporters of Syria Take Significant Steps, but No Endgame in Sight

    Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 9 Issue: 67
    April 4, 2012
    By: Saban Kardas
    On April 1, Turkey hosted the second meeting of the Friends of Syria group, which produced mixed results as to the future of the Syrian uprisings. While the meeting lent some legitimacy to the opposition organized around the Syrian National Council (SNC) and warned President Bashar al-Assad not to miss a final chance for a political solution, it fell short of authorizing decisive actions that would coerce him to end the violent military campaign against the uprising and, more importantly, step down from power (Anadolu Ajansi, April 1).

    Given its proximity and the close relationship it had forged with Damascus in the preceding years, Ankara has been actively involved in the resolution of the Syrian crisis since the beginning of the uprising. After the failure of its final efforts to reach out to Assad diplomatically in the summer of 2011, Turkey’s position changed drastically. Since then, Turkey, in coordination with the Arab League and its Western partners, has been at the forefront of the international initiatives to solve the crisis by removing Assad from power. It has extended shelter to both the Syrian refugees and the opposition groups and strived to push the UN Security Council to authorize stronger action to address the impending humanitarian catastrophe. The inability to involve the UN Security Council in the crisis due to the Russian and Chinese vetoes prompted Turkey to explore alternative avenues (EDM, February 7).

    Although at one point the Turkish government came under growing international pressure to lead a military intervention into Syria, it resisted such calls and instead continued to explore other means to first alleviate the suffering of civilians and later to ensure Syrian regime change. In an effort to generate broader international momentum around these objectives, Turkey was instrumental in the formation of the Friends of Syria group, bringing together likeminded states, which held its first meeting in Tunis a month ago. However, as it facilitated this coalition acting in close concert with the Washington, Ankara also risked fundamental disagreements with the supporters of the Syrian regime, especially Tehran, which added one more element to the already complicated bilateral relations.

    In the weeks preceding the meeting, Turkey also worked hard to ensure that it would produce substantial outcomes. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, attending the nuclear summit in South Korea, discussed this issue with US President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, hoping to change Moscow’s position by sending the message that Assad’s days are numbered and those who stand behind him will be doomed to lose (Hurriyet, March 28). On his way back home, Erdogan visited Iran and met with Iranian leaders, including the religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (www.haberturk.com, March 29). Erdogan’s appeal to his Iranian counterparts was hardly successful, as they gave no indications of a change in their position. Turkey also maintained its coordination with the Arab League, but the internal divisions among the Arab countries increasingly became apparent. While the Gulf states largely supported the Syrian opposition, Iraq has cautioned against overbearing action against Damascus and expressed its discomfort with Turkey’s activism by not inviting it to the Arab League meeting only days before the Friends of Syria conference in Istanbul (Haberturk, March 29).

    The game changer ahead of the Friends’ meeting was the six-point plan prepared by the UN/ Arab League joint special envoy Kofi Annan. After his diplomatic tour, Annan submitted his plan to the UN Security Council. The Annan plan foresees a cessation of violence, delivery of humanitarian assistance, withdrawal of heavy weaponry out of civilian areas, and political dialogue, but falls short of meeting the opposition’s demand for outlining a program for the transfer of power. Following a Security Council presidential statement giving full support to the plan on March 21, the Syrian regime also agreed to accept it on March 27 (www.aljazeera.com, March 28). Though Annan emphasized that the implementation will be the key, Assad’s move right before the Istanbul conference apparently sought to open some cracks in the coalition and thwart a harsh response.

    This development put Turkey in a difficult position, as it still operated under the assumption that changing the regime would be needed to solve the crisis. Erdogan raised concerns about Assad’s sincerity, arguing that he had failed to keep his earlier reform promises (Vatan, March 28). More importantly, Turkey questioned the six-point plan because it lacked a clear time table and enforcement mechanism in case of noncompliance (Sabah, March 31).

    Turkey also took a major step in advance of the Friends conference by convening the Syrian opposition groups in Istanbul, which sought to consolidate the opposition under one structure. By then, the disunity of the opposition groups had prevented a more decisive international support to the SNC. Although they achieved major progress in the way of eliminating differences of opinion, outlining a plan of action for national unity and consolidating their leadership structure, the withdrawal of the Syrian Kurds indicated the remaining divisions (www.ntvmsnbc.com, March 28).

    The Istanbul conference produced mixed results. The participation of over 70 countries and several international organizations, despite the absence of Russia and China, was in itself a major success. In a lukewarm development, the participants recognized the SNC as a legitimate, though not the sole, representative of the Syrian people, and decided to treat it as an interlocutor in the conflict. Though the lack of a clear decision to arm the opposition or establish humanitarian corridors also fell short of the SNC’s expectations, the references to supporting the Syrian people’s legitimate right to defend themselves might open such a loophole. The participants still agreed to establish a fund, to be provided largely by the Gulf countries as well as some Western nations, to extend financial assistance to the Free Syrian Army and supply it with some communications equipment. Also important was a decision to establish a working group to monitor the arms embargo as well as to document violations of human rights, which might increase pressure on Assad and his backers. Though the meeting supported Annan’s plan, it also called on him to set a timeline for its implementation. Although Turkey and the Friends group assume that Assad’s end is inevitable, their progress in compelling Assad and his supporters to change their behavior has been far from impressive. It might be too early to tell the endgame in Syria.

    https://jamestown.org/program/supporters-of-syria-take-significant-steps-but-no-endgame-in-sight/
  • Turkey Doesn’t Want Greek Cyprus Taking EU Council Presidency

    Turkey Doesn’t Want Greek Cyprus Taking EU Council Presidency

    eu1The Turkish government declared that it will suspend its relations with the European Union if the Greek half of Cyprus takes the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union scheduled in July 2012 without first solving the reunification issue between the Greek Cypriots and the Turkish Cypriots. Turkey’s Prime Minister Erdogan stated that Turkey does not recognize Cyprus as a nation.

    The modern history of Cyprus starting in the 1970′s is strife with military violence and political struggles that resulted in a Greek coup d’etat, a Turkish invasion and the formation of a North Turkish state and a Southern Greek state. These events led to a two-way movement of refugees on the island.

    The movement of civilians in recent times has caused many controversially claiming ‘family land’ and other such land that was supposed to be inherited decades ago.

    Both sides on the relatively small island have caused their shares of troubles between the European world and Turkey.

    The island countries have been the site of United Nations interventions and the heavy presence of more than 30,000 Turkish troops and the Greek Cypriot National Guard effectively cutting the island into two entirely different ethnic and political camps.

    The Greek side became recognized by the European Union enjoying more benefits, such as the chance to preside as EU president, than its Turkish neighbor.

    Talks between the two sides in the past have failed or faltered but were rejuvenated in 2008. Both sides in the past have tried reunification plans including the Annan Plan which failed in part because of the Greek Cypriot’s admant rejection of the plan.

    (Cover Photo: European Community)

    via Turkey Doesn’t Want Greek Cyprus Taking EU Council Presidency | iNewp.com.

  • U.N. chief says peace deal possible between Cyprus and Turkey

    U.N. chief says peace deal possible between Cyprus and Turkey

    By Michele Kambas

    Reuters Reuters

    NICOSIA: U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon will seek a peace deal within a year from Cypriot leaders engaged in reunification talks Thursday, a source close to the matter said, signalling growing frustration with a slow process that is harming Turkey’s EU ambitions.

    Leaders of the estranged Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities have been locked in rounds of negotiations to reunify Cyprus for almost four years, the latest of many previously ill-fated attempts to piece together an island riven by ethnic violence and war.

    “By focusing their energy and rising to the occasion this [a deal] could be done in a couple of weeks,” said a person on condition of anonymity.

    Ban was scheduled to meet President Demetris Christofias, the Greek Cypriot leader, and Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu in Geneva Thursday. Another meeting with the leaders was possible in September, and Ban could also announce he was preparing a report to the Security Council on the state of play in Cyprus negotiations, the source said.

    He was expected to seek a commitment from the two that they would ramp up Cyprus-based talks, held in a United Nations compound which forms part of a buffer zone splitting Greek and Turkish Cypriots since a Turkish invasion in 1974 triggered by a brief Greek inspired coup.

     

    A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Daily Star on July 07, 2011, on page 9.

    via THE DAILY STAR :: News :: Middle East :: U.N. chief says peace deal possible between Cyprus and Turkey.

  • UN to Begin New Cyprus Unity Talks

    UN to Begin New Cyprus Unity Talks

    Hopes of a breakthrough in reuniting Cyprus are diminishing after a year of talks and little progress, but the United Nations will host a second round of negotiations Thursday in Geneva. Failure of the talks could result in a permanent partition of the island, which could also end Turkey’s European Union aspirations.

    A Turkish Cypriot police officer, right, stands at the Ledra Palace border crossing, a passage between Greek and Turkish Cyprus, February 4, 2008 (file photo)

    Time is scarce

    U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki moon is due to sit down in Geneva with the leaders of the Turkish and Greek Cypriot communities to map out a schedule for efforts to reunite the divided island. These latest U.N. efforts started more than a year ago and have made little progress, according to observers.

    But Carnegie Institute visiting scholar Sinan Ulgen, who heads the Turkish-based research group Edam, warns that time maybe running out to reunite the island.

    “This will be the last attempt of the international community to settle the issue,” said Ulgen. “Already [in] 2004 there was such an attempt, which ended up a failure, and now [in] 2011 we see a renewed attempt. If this also fails Turkey’s position will shift on Cyprus, to actually, on the basis of its growing soft power in the region, to lobby for the recognition of the Turkish republic of northern Cyprus and basically seal the division of the island.”

    Only the Greek side of Cyprus is recognized internationally. The island has been divided since Turkey invaded in 1974 following a Greek-inspired coup. The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which is subject to an international economic embargo, is only recognized by Turkey.

    But the latest efforts by U.N. Secretary General Ban are facing an uphill struggle. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou who supported the previous U.N. secretary general Kofi Annan’s attempts to reunite the island is no longer in a position to offer such support.

    “Although Papandreou is the person who took enormous personal risks to support the Annan plan and never backed off from his position, I cannot see much of initiative coming from him given the very difficult domestic position in Greece,” noted Greek scholar Ioannis Grigoriadis of Turkey’s Bilkent University. “I do not think he will be an obstacle to a solution if a solution comes. But it will be very difficult for him to make more enemies in his party and the country overall by launching a very ambitious Cyprus agenda at this point.”

    The U.N. Annan plan was also strongly supported by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In a 2004 referendum it was accepted by the Turkish side of the island, but rejected by Greek Cypriots.

    Old divisions remain

    With the Greek Cypriot side of the island being an EU member, Turkey’s membership aspirations are seen as tied to reuniting the island. But according to Senior Turkish diplomat Selim Yenel, Turkey will not make any more concessions.

    “It has always fallen on Turkey to give concessions, and we have this is enough, we have given enough concessions,” said Yenel. “We have tried everything, but every time we have done so, the Greek Cypriots have put them in the pocket and have asked for more. If we do it again they will just pocket it and ask for something else. This has been basic policy. They have always relied on the European Union, on other big countries, to put pressure on us. Well it is not going to work anymore.”

    Observers say such a robust stance is a reflection of the changing balance of power between Turkey and the European Union. Turkey’s membership bid is at a virtual standstill, in part due to Cyprus as well as opposition from both Germany and France. But with the European Union facing economic disarray and Turkey’s fast growing economy the allure of membership is fading, according to Ulgen.

    He says that means Ankara can take a tough stance, even pushing for full recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC).

    “Under those conditions Turkey’s EU prospects would come to an end,” Ulgen added. “But the fact the EU has lost its public appeal and the Turkish government has lost is zeal for EU accession changes the frame work for the Turkish government, and makes it more accessible for the Turkish foreign policy to pursue the full recognition of the TRNC.”

    But Ulgen argues the real prospect of a permanent partition of the island may yet provide the impetus for the two communities to reach an agreement.

    With the Greek Cypriots due to take over the six-month EU presidency on July 1, 2012, it appears that date has become the deadline for a deal to be struck.

    via UN to Begin New Cyprus Unity Talks | Europe | English.