Turkish Forum

Tag: 2023

  • What does Erdogan’s win mean for the world?

    What does Erdogan’s win mean for the world?

    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was declared the winner of the presidential election. What does it mean for the world?

    Arshad Khan, a new resident of Istanbul from International Islamic University, Malaysia answers this question as follows:

    Victory of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan means different to different leaders and countries

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    America: Not an easy ally who bow down to their tune, tough time to deal with unless Trump is incharge

    NATO: Dependable ally, second largest military with good relations against projected enemies

    Sweden: Difficult road ahead to get in NATO

    Europe: Alternative to China to smaller extent with whom they want to lessen their dependency. will not be dancing to their tune on false promises of Entry to european Union. They will gear up trying to be good friends after trying desperately to not get him elected.

    Turkic states: Good news, they can play a unified major role

    UAE & Saudia: continuation of newly developed friendship, can be a reliable partner against western bullying.

    Qatar & Azerbiajan: Big Brother victory which to be celebrated by whole country

    China: can continue working on BRI and silk route revival. trustable and important route for their export markets

    Russia & Iran: Happiest, will make Turkey the HUB of energy for supplying to west without sanctions

    Iraq: can proceed further on development of Highway from Basra to Europe via Turkey

    Syria: will try to ally by asking more concession but will get realigned from pressure of Russia and Iran

    Afganistan & pakistan: Dreamland of Ertugrul gazi and revival of ottoman empire.

    Africa: happiest and want to continue the trade and business and develop it multifold.

  • Notes on another Turkish election catastrophe

    Notes on another Turkish election catastrophe

    How Erdoğan won again

    If you’re looking at the New York Times today, you’ll see only that Erdoğan failed to win a majority. Because neither Erdoğan nor Kılıçdaroğlu reached the 50 percent threshold and won outright, there will be a runoff election in two weeks.

    Erdoğan performed badly—so badly that at first, it was possible to think Kılıçdaroğlu was winning; no one had ever seen such low early numbers for Erdoğan before. He lost Istanbul. He lost Ankara. He lost the first round—for the first time in his career.

    That there will be a runoff might sound encouraging. But it isn’t. Erdoğan’s alliance has a majority in the parliament, and barring divine intervention, Erdoğan will take the presidency in the next round, probably in a landslide.

    The polls were wrong—all of them. Kılıçdaroğlu significantly underperformed expectation. The opposition strategy—about which so many (including me, stupidly) were so hopeful—just didn’t work.

    So Erdoğan will be president again. He will probably be president for life

    To understand why, you need to be familiar with two parties, the MHP and the HDP, and their relationship to each other.

    The MHP is typically described as “nationalist” or “radical right,” but “xenophobic, fanatically nationalist neo-fascists” is closer. The contemporary MHP also has respectable politicians, if you think politicians who could reasonably be described as Turkish analogues of Marine Le Pen or Georgia Meloni are respectable. I’ve spoken to some in their ranks who are thoughtful and well-spoken, even if I disagree with them. I had a lunch once with an MHP parliamentarian who was a fan of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher and imagined himself a politician in their mould. We liked each other. So they’re not all fascists.

    claire berlinski

    You need to subscribe to The Cosmopolitan Globalist in order to read the full article. Claire Berlinski is a guest writer at Turkish Forum and editor in chief of The Cosmopolitan Globalist.
    (https://claireberlinski.substack.com/p/notes-on-another-turkish-election)

  • Will Turkey survive if the opposition wins the election?

    Will Turkey survive if the opposition wins the election?

    Will Turkey survive if the opposition wins the election? A conversation with Cengiz Aktar

    Renowned Turkish political scientist and activist Cengiz Aktar sat down with CivilNet’s Eric Hacopian to talk about Turkey’s upcoming general election, the country’s continued de-Westernization, its “wagging the dog” relations with Azerbaijan, and the prospects for normalization with Armenia. He also discusses if a Turkish Willy Brandt could ever emerge to honor the victims of the Armenian Genocide.

  • Electoral Board Published Preliminary List of Presidential Contenders

    Electoral Board Published Preliminary List of Presidential Contenders

    What Happened: Turkey’s Supreme Election Board published a temporary list of presidential candidates who are eligible to run for office in the May 14 election, and the most prominent candidates are incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Republican People’s Party (CHP) head Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Hurriyet Daily News reported on March 28. CHP member Muharrem Ince and Sinan Ogan, a Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) member and head of the ATA Alliance, also made it onto the list.

    Why It Matters: As Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu are backed by the country’s biggest political alliances, the People’s Alliance and the Nation Alliance, respectively, the presidential election will essentially pit these two major candidates against each other. However, Ince could contribute to a split opposition vote. Ogan is the least notable candidate, but since the MHP is an ally of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), he could draw some votes away from Erdogan and provide slight competition between non-opposition parties. 

    Background: Ince is a popular opposition figure who has always competed with Kilicdaroglu and also ran for president in the 2018 presidential election, with 30% of the votes placing him second behind Erdogan, who won outright in the first round of the election with 53%.

    RANE Worldview

  • Turkey’s strategy reveals Erdogan has built a house of cards, not an Empire

    Turkey’s strategy reveals Erdogan has built a house of cards, not an Empire

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    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrives for the G20 of World Leaders Summit on October 30, 2021 at the convention center “La Nuvola” in the EUR district of Rome. (Photo by Alberto PIZZOLI / AFP)

    The year of 2023 might become perhaps the worst time for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his political career. Being harshly criticized for his foreign policy due to balancing between the West and Russia, making accuses towards the U.S. (the Turkey’s main strategic partner) and sticking to the NATO at the same time, Erdogan’s internal policy is also close to ruins.

    The Erdogan’s failure to response to the earthquake that hit the Turkish northern territories and killed more than 35 000 people is on the top of the presidential election campaign agenda. The Turkish leader is accused by opposition for hailing some of the housing projects that crumbled, killing thousands of people. According to some construction experts, contractors were allowed to skip crucial safety regulations, increasing their profits but putting residents at risk. The video, taken during a campaign stop ahead of Turkey’s March 2019 local elections, Erdogan mentioned new housing for the city of Kahramanmaras (also called as Maras), near the epicenter February’s quake, as one of his main achievements.

    “We solved the problem of 144,156 citizens of Maras with zoning amnesty,” Erdogan said, using his term for the construction amnesties handed out to allow contractors to ignore the safety codes.

    The earthquake-damaged territories mostly inhabited by Kurds, have always been an epicenter for Turkey’s internal policy. Having been oppressed by the Turkish ruling party for years for the activity of the local PKK party (Kurdish Working Party, considered as a terrorist organization by the Turkish government), these territories faced a revealed connivance of authorities towards housing construction that adds even more oil to the flame that’s discrediting Erdogan’s policy among locals.

    But in his foreign policy Erdogan has been even more uncompromising for several years. Having demonstrated his Ottoman Empire’s ambitions, the Turkish leader has managed to make enemies almost from all his partners and near-located countries. Harsh and uncensored accusations towards the West, an aggressive imperial policy towards some Middle East and Northern African countries, unstable position towards the Ukraine’s crisis have earned Erdogan a reputation of one of the most untrusted leaders.

    As one Turkish saying goes, “One can trust a Turk after 40 days of his death”, Erdogan seems to having done everything to prove this. Sadly, there seems to be almost no time to recover from it before the May,14 presidential elections. Unless the people’s trust will again be bought.

  • The AKP in Pursuit of a Political Strategy

    The AKP in Pursuit of a Political Strategy

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    Turkey’s government will implement populist and nationalist policies at home and abroad ahead of the 2023 elections, potentially triggering fiscal (worldview.stratfor.com/article/search-quick-win-erdogan-gambles-turkey-s-economic-future), economic, diplomatic and/or military crises. Uncertain about its electoral prospects in 2023, the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) will pursue policies designed to curry favor with its traditional Islamist-nationalist base. It will seek to appeal to Islamists by citing religious tenets to justify controversial policies like keeping low interest rates at the central bank and weakening human rights protections if they contravene local religious values. To appeal to nationalists, it will initiate limited confrontations with the European Union in the Eastern Mediterranean, with the United States over Turkey’s defense ties with Russia, and with Russia over Turkey’s continued military intervention in Russian ally Syria. Though the AKP will, of course, try to avoid triggering a crisis, it is not positioned to ensure its high-risk policies do not spur unprecedented inflation, further capital flight and even a major debt crisis in 2022; its management of the lira is especially fraught. Meanwhile, Turkey’s more aggressive foreign policy could trigger fresh sanctions from the European Union and/or the United States. And if Russian (worldview.stratfor.com/article/syria-kurdish-attack-risks-triggering-new-turkish-offensive) and Turkish forces clash and there are significant casualties on either side in Syria, the military confrontation could spread to other theaters where Turkey and Russia back opposing sides, like Ukraine and the Caucasus. 

    Enjoy ??Cheerio !!!~

    CASH IS KING
    IN GOD WE TRUST
    Richard C De Graff