Category: Regions

  • Two Countries, Turkey and Venezuela, Are Candidates for a Crisis

    Two Countries, Turkey and Venezuela, Are Candidates for a Crisis

    With the bloom coming off the emerging markets rose, one economic model has drawn a circle around two countries that stand the greatest risk of falling into a crisis.

    Chlaus Lotscher | Photolibrary | Getty Images

    David Rees, emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said the firm has developed five criteria to identify whether a country’s economy has overheated to the point where it is threatening to develop into a full-scale problem.

    The good news is that the Capital model finds no country in “immediate threat of crisis.”

    But the bad news is that at least two countries are tilting in that direction and could pose danger to investors.

    Rees identifies the endangered duo as Turkey and Venezuela.

    (Read More: Tesco Quits US as Profits Fall for First Time in 20 years)

    Turkey’s stock market has surged 7.3 percent in 2013 and is up 42 percent over the past 12 months. The country outperformed virtually all other emerging markets in 2012 as it modernizes its economy and pushes pro-growth programs.

    Venezuela’s markets tell an even more robust story, with the Caracas exchange booming 37 percent this year and more than 200 percent over the past 12 months. While some feared the rally might falter due to political upheaval after President Hugo Chavez’s death, the market has gone on its merry way.

    Despite the powerful gains, Rees advises investors to watch five factors: Growing current account deficits; rapid credit expansion; surging short-term external debt; bubbling stock market prices (50 percent is considered a red flag); and large growth in real exchange rates.

    Broadly speaking, capital inflows “are something of a double-edged sword” for developing economies, Rees said. They both can help spur development but also “can fuel overheated economic growth and asset price bubbles,” he added.

    “In extreme cases, capital flight can then lead to recession and sharp falls in asset prices that can culminate in defaults on debt repayments,” Rees said in an analysis.

    The warning comes as emerging markets take a break after a decade of strong growth.

    Overall, emerging market stocks are down for the year, with the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets exchange-traded fund off more than 7 percent. Investors have pulled more than $2 billion from the ETF, the third-most of any of its peers, according to IndexUniverse.

    Still, some strategists remain positive on the group, reasoning that the underlying indicators remain strong even if sentiment has shifted due to negative headlines in the high-profile BRIC nations – Brazil, Russia, India and China.

    (Read More: By 2015, Producing in China Will Be as Costly as US)

    “In general, we see good long-term value in emerging markets based on favorable economic fundamentals,” Wells Fargo said in a recent analysis. “Valuations for emerging markets overall and for the larger markets are some of the cheapest in the world.”

    Investors should keep watch, then, on where the real opportunities — and crises — present themselves.

    “There is a risk that a prolonged period of loose monetary policy in the developed world could push large flows of capital into EMs over the coming years,” Rees said. “Accordingly, it would be useful to know if, and when, a crisis is about to unfold.”

  • AFP: Turkey’s Muslim Armenians come out of hiding

    AFP: Turkey’s Muslim Armenians come out of hiding

    By Nicolas Cheviron (AFP) – 1 day ago

    TUNCELI, Turkey — They dropped their language and religion to survive after the 1915 genocide, but close to 100 years on Turkey’s “hidden Armenians” want to take pride in their identity.

    Some genocide survivors adopted Islam and blended in with the Kurds in eastern Turkey’s Dersim mountains to avoid further persecution.

    Several generations down the road, the town of Tunceli hosted a landmark ceremony Wednesday for Genocide Remembrance Day, something which has only ever happened in Istanbul and the large city of Diyarbakir.

    The massacre and deportation of Ottoman Armenians during World War I, which Armenians claim left around 1.5 million dead, is described by many countries as genocide although Ankara continues to reject the term.

    Speaking in front of the ruins of the Ergen church — one of the few remnants of Christian Armenian heritage in the region — Miran Pirginc Gultekin, president of the Dersim Armenian Association, explained it was still rare to declare oneself openly as Armenian in Turkey.

    “We decided that we had to get back to our true nature, that this way of living was not satisfactory, that it was not fair to live with another’s identity and another’s faith,” he said.

    Despite converting to Alevism, a heterodox sect of Islam, and taking Turkish names, the ethnic Armenians who stayed on their ancestral land suffered from continued discrimination and the elders often struggle to summon their memories.

    “My mother told me how her family was deported. She was a baby at the time and her mother considered drowning her in despair,” said Tahire Aslanpencesi, a sprightly octogenarian from the village Danaburan.

    “My mother used to say all the misery that came after would have been avoided had her mother drowned her,” she recalled.

    After converting to Islam, many of the so-called “crypto-Armenians” said they still faced unfair treatment: their land was often confiscated, the men were humiliated with “circumcision checks” in the army and some were tortured.

    Hidir Boztas’ grandfather converted to Islam, gave his son a Turkish name and the clan intermarried with a Kurdish community in the village of Alanyazi.

    “We feel Armenian nonetheless and in any case the others always remind us of where we come from. No matter how many of their daughters we marry, and how many of ours we give them, they will continue to call us Armenians,” he said.

    The Armenian community shared the Kurds’ suffering when the regime cracked down on Kurdish rebellions, from the 1938 revolt to the insurrection started by the PKK group in 1984.

    For a long time, only those who had left the ancestral homestead dared to make their Armenian roots known.

    “Armenians in Istanbul are in a big city, they have their neighbourhoods, their churches, nobody can do anything to them. But in these villages, there’s rejection and insults,” said Hidir Boztas, 86.

    Human rights campaigners gathered Wednesday in downtown Istanbul carrying portraits of genocide victims.

    There were fewer than 200 people there but the protestors stressed such an event would have been unthinkable only a decade ago.

    One of Hidir’s nephews, 42-year-old Mustafa, a businessman, is one of a growing number of Muslim Armenians who want to be proud of their identity.

    Mustafa has decided to name his construction firm Bedros after Hidir’s grandfather, who was deported during the genocide.

    “It symbolised my past. My great-grandfather was called Bedros, and I wanted his name to live on. I am against radicalism, and I don’t do this through racism or religious extremism, but I don’t deny my origins — everyone knows them.”

    He said he hoped the unprecedented ceremony in Tunceli Wednesday would encourage more members of the community to come out in the open.

    “The aim is to allow people to assert their identity more freely and also to generate more interest for the little Christian heritage left in the region,” said Miran Pirginc Gultekin.

    His society was created three years ago and has around 80 members.

    via AFP: Turkey’s Muslim Armenians come out of hiding.

  • Turkey: Following the Anzacs

    Turkey: Following the Anzacs

    Turkey puts $60 million into multimedia encounter, writes Russell Maclennan-Jones

    Turkish World War I memorial at Canakkale near Gallipoli, Turkey. Photo / Supplied

    People on this side of the world have a clear picture of Gallipoli: mateship, valour, sacrifice in a small campaign that we lost on the way to winning World War I. It’s far more complicated for Turkish people. They won the campaign at the cost of many lives and saved their country, but went on to lose the war.

    They lost an empire, too, but from its ashes rose modern Turkey, a prosperous, fairly stable country linking Europe to the Middle East.

    A new centre near the battlefields of a century ago makes it easier for visitors to get a Turkish perspective. Allied victory there, and greatly increased support for Russia through the Bosphorus, could have ended the war swiftly and even altered the Russian revolution.

    The Turks have spent nearly $60 million on the Canakkale Epic Promotion Centre and epic is the right word. It’s history as entertainment and a vivid celebration of the men who defeated the invading Anzacs, British and other Allies, in 1915.

    Conceived as a multimedia extravaganza, with actors bringing many scenes to life in film segments, the building has an ambitious flowing scheme to cope with big crowds moving from one multimedia experience to another.

    No media trick is forgone, from the 3D thrill of being shelled by a battleship to hand-to-hand battles in the trenches on the peninsula. It gets pretty confusing and is very noisy. Headphones provide an English translation, which can be a bit hard to follow.

    anzacs and ottoman turks
    The Ottoman veteran Adil Şahin and the Australian veteran Len Hall met as friends in Gallipoli in 1990, 75 years after they fought as enemies in the same place.

    Generations of Kiwis mark the battle’s start on April 25, Anzac Day, but the Turks celebrate March 18, when they routed Allied navies, a defeat that led to the invasion attempt, and this naval battle takes up a lot of the experience.

    Guides lead the 30 or so people in each group from room to room. At one point you’re on the heaving deck of a battleship, at another you feel as though you are in the middle of the fighting.

    Some of the acting is unconvincing (British Navy types discussing tactics, all in Turkish, of course), but the ordinary soldiers bring some of the scenes to life. Facts, figures and statistics are sparing. It’s more a matter of the feeling that the homeland was under threat and brave soldiers stood up when it mattered.

    Allied soldiers are shown being shot down on the beach, and the ruse of guns left to fire themselves as the Anzacs withdrew is depicted in detail. But between those two events little is shown of the Allied effort or of how the soldiers scraped an existence on the unfriendly hills.

    After the high-tech experience I hope schoolchildren are taken up the hill to where their forefathers fought ferocious battles. The graves there show how many people died in what was a fruitless campaign.

    Because the centre is new, tour groups may not have incorporated visits yet. The best way to get there is to take a taxi from Eceabat. Buses are infrequent. If you can spend two or three days in Eceabat or Canakkale do visit the centre and take a guided tour of the battlefields. To avoid crowds go at dawn or sunset and ask a taxi driver to show you the landing places and cemeteries.

    CHECKLIST

    Getting there: Emirates flies daily from Auckland to Dubai with a connection there to its flight to Istanbul. fares are currently available from $2,497 return.

    By Russell Maclennan-Jones

    Watch: Anzac Day weather forecast

    VIDEO Anzac Day weather forecast (2:56)

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  • In Israel, both coalition and opposition urge remembrance of Armenian genocide

    In Israel, both coalition and opposition urge remembrance of Armenian genocide

    Knesset members speak out despite the government’s efforts to achieve a detente with Turkey.

    By Jonathan Lis | Apr.23, 2013 | 8:17 PM |  10
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    A World War Two veteran attends a ceremony marking the anniversary of the 1915 mass killings of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire, in Yerevan April 24, 2010. Photo by Reuters

    Both coalition and opposition members Tuesday commemorated the Armenian genocide by the Ottoman Turks, despite Israel’s efforts to patch things up with Turkey over the raid on the Gaza flotilla three years ago in which eight Turkish nationals died.

    During and after World War I, between 1 million and 1.5 million Armenians died; the anniversary of the killings is marked this week. Because of Jerusalem’s past close relations with Ankara, the government has never officially recognized the events as genocide.

    “How many of us are really familiar with the Armenian holocaust? Why are we indifferent when Turkey does not take responsibility?” said MK Ayelet Shaked (Habayit Hayehudi). “We must confront our silence and that of the world in the face of such horrors. No country stood by the Armenians. No one cared about the genocide in Rwanda.”

    MK Israel Hasson (Kadima) called on his colleagues to support the Armenian people. “We’ve formed an Israeli-Armenian friendship association, and I call on any MKs who want to express solidarity to join it, even if the government has difficulty formulating a statement.”

    MK Reuven Rivlin (Likud), a former Knesset speaker, said “Turkey is and will be an ally of Israel. The talks with Turkey are understandable and even necessary from a strategic and diplomatic perspective. But those circumstances cannot justify the Knesset ignoring the tragedy of another people.”

    MK Zahava Gal-On (Meretz) referred to the reconciliation talks with Turkey as “an important and strategic process that I wholeheartedly support, but it needn’t influence recognition of the massacre of the Armenian people. It’s not that we have to either recognize the genocide or have relations with Turkey; we can do both. The link between the two harms Israel and its foreign relations.”

    Ofir Akunis, a deputy minister in the Prime Minister’s Office, said that “as Jews and Israelis we have a moral obligation to remember human tragedies. One of them was the massacre of the Armenian people. The State of Israel has never denied these terrible events.”

    According to Akunis, “Investigating the related events must be done through open debate, not by political declarations.”

    In the end, the MKs decided that the Knesset House Committee would choose which committee would conduct a broader debate on the issue.

  • Taliban captives ‘well looked after’ in Afghanistan’s Logar

    Taliban captives ‘well looked after’ in Afghanistan’s Logar

    A group of foreigners abducted on Monday by militants in eastern Afghanistan are being “well looked after”, officials and the Taliban say.

    _67152740_afghan_logar_july10Up to 11 people, thought to include eight Turks, two Russians and an Afghan were taken in Logar province after their helicopter landed in bad weather.

    Tribal elders who saw the captives said that they were being fed and looked after, local officials told the BBC.

    The Taliban also told the BBC the captives were in good condition.

    Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said that the group were very tired and that “we could not talk to them a lot”.

    “If they need any doctors for check up or other health related issues, we have good doctors and medical workers,” he said.

    He added that Taliban leaders had yet to make a decision about their fate and denied reports that local officials or tribal elders had made contact in an effort to negotiate their release.

    But officials in Logar earlier told the BBC that elders had seen the hostages. They added that the Taliban had made no demands so far, adding that they were concerned that the insurgents’ might want to take the group across the border into Pakistan.

    Forced landing

    The company responsible for the missing helicopter, Khorasan, said the aircraft was forced down in bad weather on Sunday evening while flying to Kabul from Khost, which is to the south-east of the capital.

    Azra, the restive district where the helicopter made the forced landing, is close to the Pakistani border and local officials say that while there are some Afghan government forces there, the Taliban and other insurgents have a strong presence.

    It said there were 10 people on board: one was an Afghan, two were Russian pilots, and the other seven were Turkish construction workers.

    But Turkey’s foreign ministry later said that eight Turks were on board the aircraft.

    The BBC’s David Loyn in Kabul reports that on any day there are an average of 100 civilian helicopter flights across Afghanistan.

    They are a vital link for remote bases, carrying workers and supplies and are mostly contracted from Russian companies, our correspondent adds.

    Turkey has around 1,800 soldiers serving with Nato forces in Afghanistan, but their mission is confined to patrols and Turkey has long had a close relationship with Kabul.

    Several Turkish engineers have been kidnapped in Afghanistan in recent years, with some held for up to two years.

    Numerous Western, Pakistani and Afghan hostages are being held in Afghanistan including US Army Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl, 25, who has been a prisoner for nearly four years.

    via BBC News – Taliban captives ‘well looked after’ in Afghanistan’s Logar.

  • Istanbul΄s Greeks want citizenship back

    Istanbul΄s Greeks want citizenship back

    The Greek population of Istanbul, which was rather forced to leave Turkey because of the sociopolitical situation, is now asking for its citizenship rights΄ restoration, daily Sunday΄s Zaman reported. Greeks in Istanbul, known as Rums (Turkey΄s Greeks), are finally given the chance to actually voice their demands thanks to recent improvements relating the minorities΄ rights.

    Talks have been carried out with government officials through the Istanbul Rums Universal Federation, established in 2005. The federation, after sending a letter to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan addressing their problems and demands, also sent a written statement to the Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of EU Affairs in September, 2012.

    The federation΄s head, Nikolaos Uzunoglu, presented a number of suggestions, among which were granting quick Turkish citizenship to people who would like to return, giving them orientation classes in order to help them open up small businesses and learn Turkish.

    In the beginning of March, Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc highlighted to his government members the importance of improving the lives of minorities in Turkey by expanding their rights, while calling minorities to return to Turkey.

    According to Sunday΄s Zaman΄s, Uzunoglu also underlined that it is highly important for young Greeks to return to Turkey in order to keep their culture alive.

    via Istanbul΄s Greeks want citizenship back- Capital.gr.