Category: Regions

  • Will China Turn to Maritime Great Power Politics in Pacific Sea?

    Will China Turn to Maritime Great Power Politics in Pacific Sea?

    Prof. Dr. Mesut Hakkı CAŞIN İstinye Üniversitesi

    cinsavasgemileri denizkuvvetleri

    China is at once a continental power and a maritime power (haiyang daguo) and it possesses broad maritime strategic interests…These achievements have laid a solid foundation for building a strong maritime power (haiyang qiangguo).

    Xi Jinping

    International community and scholar’s discussion now the post-Cold War world as we know it is coming to an end that great power politics is back, consequently the role of naval forces national navies will continue to grow. Indeed, the XXI st century will be the rise of China’s dramatic economic growth over the past two decades has fundamentally changed the global and regional geo-economic and geo-political landscapes its wider implications for international politics form the most important issue in our time. The main goal of Xi’s signature initiative- Belt and Road Initiative- BRI, with current estimates ranging between $1 to $8 trillion and some 70 countries involved -is to expand Chinese global political and economic networks and to secure a more active position in “global governance” without waiting for the West to give China more roles and responsibilities in existing institutions. In spite of historical Chinese foreign policy objectives mainly focused on land territories; new strategic doctrine of the Chinese is organized around the will to make the Pacific Sea and to expand its immediate maritime interests. Beijing has been serious changing policy objectives recently toward solidifying a sphere of influence in the Asia-Pacific. China also has expanded its maritime reach as it modernizes its navy and air force. China’s ongoing maritime transformation from a traditional land power to a sea power. As Andrew Erickson argues, “China’s naval build-up is only part of an extraordinary maritime transformation-modern history’s sole example of a land power becoming a hybrid land-sea power and sustaining such an exceptional status. Underwriting this transition are a vast network of ports, shipping lines and financial systems, and-of course-increasingly advanced ships.” At the beginning of 2017, the Chinese Navy had 328 ships. It now possesses nearly 350 ships and is already larger than the U.S. Navy. China is the largest ship-producing country in the world and at current production rates could soon operate 400 ships. Its commissions nearly three submarines each year, and in two years will have more than 70 in its fleet. The Chinese Navy also operates growing numbers of cruisers, destroyers, frigates, and corvettes, all equipped with long-range anti-ship cruise missiles. Between 2013 and 2016, China commissioned more than 30 modern corvettes. At current rates, China could have 430 surface ships and 100 submarines within the next 15 years. China’s leaders are laying both the intellectual and material groundwork for out-of-area ventures. As a result,

    Chinese Communist Party (CCP) chiefs aim to guaranteed passage about access from the time a ship leaves harbor China sea and the Pacific in East Asia until the time it docks in an Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf, or European seaport. Unfortunately for Chinese leaders and national-level documents characterize the goal of becoming a maritime power as essential to China’s national development strategy. China making a quick move to secure a military or strategic advantage in the Pacific region. The international community has been viewing China’s recent moves challenge the status quo relating to the seas as representing “maritime expansion,” and the Chinese themselves have come to talk about making their country a maritime power. The 18th Party Congress thus marks an important defining moment. China’s future is to be a haiyang qiangguo-that is, a strong or great maritime power. However, China has also been cooperating with neighbors to establish codes of conduct to reduce conflict in the maritime arena.

    The Chinese navy justifies itself to its neighbors, necessarily worried, by the necessity of escorting the commercial vessels essential to the economy of the country; but it is known that the priority of the new strategies. Beijing considers the majority of the South China Sea to be its sovereign territory, a claim that is disputed by international law. China’s military have been turning what were once small rocks and reefs into heavily fortified remote military installations. These installations give China a strategic advantage. The installation on the Spratly Islands, for example, has the capacity to deploy fighter aircraft that could control key shipping lanes. The commander of US forces in the Indo-Pacific, Admiral Philip Davidson, said during his confirmation hearing that China is capable of dominating the South China Sea in “all scenarios short of war.” This academic article aim to briefly analysis that will transition China’s passivity naval modernization policy into maritime power.

  • The Effectiveness of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime

    The Effectiveness of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime

    nukleersantral

    Among the international security regimes, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime has a prominent rank due to the destructive power of the nuclear weapons over regional and global peace and stability. Since any failure, deception or deviation from the NPT Regime may bring about catastrophic outcomes; the regime is expected to have the ability and tools to cope with probable challenges. 

    The NPT Regime has come across with two major challenges in the recent decade: North Korea and Iran. Because North Korea withdrew from the NPT, it is no longer subjected to the NPT Regime, directly. Contrariwise, Iranis determined to stay as a state party to the NPT; thusly it is still subjected to the processes of the Regime.

    Though, the Regime still did not confirm the character and extent of Iranian nuclear program. Iran has been demonstrating that it is possible to remain in the Regime without providing the necessary transparency to let the IAEA verify the absence of undeclared materials and inhibited activities. The question of my statement is “why the processes of the NPT Regime cannotspecify the nature and scope of Iran’s nuclear program?” I examine the processesof the Regime in order to determine the weaknesses of the Regime and toaddress them. The aforementioned processes are the procedures run by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN Security Council (UNSC)and the multilateral negotiations. I argue that, the Regime is modulated to cope with operational challenges and it remains relatively incompetent when a political challenge arises.

  • Azerbaijani NGOs Appeal to the International Community

    Azerbaijani NGOs Appeal to the International Community

    niyazi

    By Azer HASRET

    As is known, on September 27, 2020 Occupational Armed Forces of Armenia had started military offensive against Azerbaijani positions and civil settlements. As a result Azerbaijani Armed Forces had to react and started counter-attacks. Thus the war, which lasted 44 days and ended with the victory of Azerbaijan, had started. Day by day Armenian Army had to step back and on November 10, 2020 the sides signed a Statement to stop war operations. The Statement was initiated by the Russian Federation.

    During those terrific days Armenian Armed Forces launched hundreds of rocket attacks on civil settlements. Mostly those settlements were outside of war scene and even hundreds of kms off. Thus one of the most suffered cities was Ganja, some 60 km away from Karabakh and war zone.

    On October 3, 2021, on the eve of the first Armenian rocket attack on Ganja, a group of Azerbaijani NGO representatives traveled to the city to express their solidarity with the suffered people and even with the all inhabitants. The city of Ganja was attacked with rockets 5 times and saw huge damages to the city killing dozens of peaceful civilians.

    NGO representatives, visiting one of the most suffered areas, convened a conference in Ganja dedicated to the attacks on the civil settlements. At the end of the conference participants adopted An Appeal to the International Community which is included below.

    An Appeal to the International Community in Regard to the Military Crimes Committed by Armenia Against Cities and Districts of Azerbaijan in 2020

    03 October 2021, Ganja City

    As a reply to the next military provocation committed against our country by armed forces of the Republic of Armenia on September 27, 2020, the armed forces of the Republic of Azerbaijan had started contra attack operations and had liberated the lands belonging to the Republic of Azerbaijan.

    As a result of successful military operations conducted by our army the military forces of Armenia were completely destroyed. With the aim to compensate the loss in the field of battle the Government of Armenia had chosen the civil population living in the cities and districts out of the frontline of the war shooting from different types of heavy weapons including artillery and ballistic rockets committing crimes and military crimes against the mankind and killed civil population including women and children making damage to the property of population as well as infrastructure facilities in a large scale

    Thus, the second largest city of Azerbaijan Ganja faced heavy artillery and rocket attacks during the dates of October 4, 5, 8, 11 and 17. In general, as a result of these horrible terroristic acts 26 persons lost their lives, 175 persons were wounded, and a huge number of civil infrastructure facilities and vehicles faced significant damage.

    In general, based on the order of the Government of Armenia not only Ganja and Barda, also Yevlakh, Beylagan, Tartar, Gabala, Goranboy, Aghjabadi, Khizi and other cities and districts were attacked with ballistic rockets and other type of heavy artillery weapons. As a result of this military aggression 454 civilians were wounded, 93 civilians died including 12 children and 27 women, totally 12.292 residential and non-residential areas as well as 288 vehicles had been significantly damaged.

    Because of this above-mentioned reasons, we as the NGOs of Azerbaijan with the deep feeling of concern would like to attract the attention of international community to the crimes committed against mankind by the political and military government of Armenia a year ago and we are stating that the international humanitarian law especially Geneva Convention adopted in 1949 had been seriously violated.

    We, the NGOs that are active in Azerbaijan who are signing this appeal on behalf of civil society of our country would like to apply to human rights protection organizations, NGOs, media representatives, parliament members and governments in all over the world calling them to express their protest regarding the military crimes committed against the civil population of Azerbaijan by Armenia and to announce this type of military acts against civil population as unacceptable.

    Signed by 49 NGOs

  • An Open Letter to the Congressmen Tony Cárdenas, Adam Schiff and Brad Sherman

    An Open Letter to the Congressmen Tony Cárdenas, Adam Schiff and Brad Sherman

    azer hasret babek
    Azer HASRET

    We, the people of Azerbaijan just learned that you have acted in the House of Representatives to pass the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2022, which includes an amendment in regard to our country. In your amendment we witness many fake accusations which press us to share our position openly.

    First of all you claim that “On September 27, 2020, Azerbaijan, with support from Turkey and foreign militia groups, launched a military assault on Nagorno-Karabakh”, “resulting in the deaths of thousands and displacing tens of thousands of ethnic Armenian residents”.

    Just to enlighten you and your supporters I’ll recall the statistics delivered by official Yerevan that about 30 civilian Armenians were killed during this 44 days of war, not thousands. And military personal which were eliminated in thousands in the territory of Azerbaijan were mostly of Armenian citizenship, not Karabakh residents. Thus Azerbaijan eliminated foreign occupants and cleansed its territories from the foreign occupants which is not against any international law or obligation.

    By the way, Armenian occupant army launched dozens of rocket attacks on civil settlements of Azerbaijan out of war zone during this war and killed more than 100 civilians. Among them many kids, children and women fell victim of Armenian rockets.

    Then you claim that Azerbaijan used “support from Turkey and foreign militia groups”. Are you serious? Do you know that no any foreigner fought in the side of Azerbaijan and there are no any evidences proving that? Just do not fell a victim of Armenian propaganda.

    You are citing the tripartite statement by Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia from the November 10, 2020 to end the conflict. This statement really oversees exchange of all POWs, and the conflicting sides really had returned all of them immediately after the statement was signed. Thus Azerbaijan and Armenia both have no POWs after this date. But ugly Armenian propaganda is spreading fake information that Azerbaijan is still keeping Armenian POWs. And people like you are volunteering to be a tool for this propaganda.

    Again, to enlighten you, Azerbaijan has several Armenian detainees, but they are not POWs as those people were stopped and detained at the end of November 2020 while illegally entered Azerbaijani lands, killed several Azerbaijanis including civilians. They all are citizens of Armenia and captured in the territory of Azerbaijan. Even most of them are freed and returned home. Going back they claimed that Azerbaijan tortured them, but they could not provide evidences of torture.

    And a question for you: if any well equipped military group would enter the US illegally and kill people what would your government do with them? In such a case would you call on the US Government as well to release these people untouched? I believe that you’ll say no.

    Once, you’re citing on “The Third Geneva Convention, of which Azerbaijan is a signatory, and customary international law” which “require the release of prisoners of war and captured civilians upon the cessation of hostilities and require that all detainees be treated humanely”.

    And again you are claiming that “the Government of Azerbaijan continues to detain an estimated 200 Armenian prisoners of war, hostages, and detained persons, misrepresenting their status in an attempt to justify their continued captivity”.

    Again, I’ll call on you to be serious. If Azerbaijan has released all persons who were captured before the end of the war, how you can claim that my country is still keeping POWs? Just ask the Government of Armenia and they will tell you that Azerbaijan had released all detained persons who were captured during actions of war days.

    While seeing your citation of the Human Rights Watch and Columbia University’s Institute for the Study of Human Rights reports, once more we see manipulation approval by such organizations. This kind of “human rights” organizations are always used as a tool to serve the interests of those who pay.

    I was surprised while reading your claim that Azerbaijan could subject to sexual assaults woman detainees. Just to enlighten you once more, there is no any female detainee of Armenian origin in Azerbaijan. Even due to other crimes as we have more than 30 thousands of citizens of Armenian origin out of Karabakh, which lived all these years of conflict in peace in Azerbaijan.

    You say, that “Armenia has fulfilled its obligations under the November 9 statement and international law by returning Azerbaijani prisoners of war”. You are right. And Azerbaijan did the same as the sides exchanged mutually in this regard.

    Thus your demand to call on Azerbaijan to “immediately and unconditionally return all Armenian prisoners of war and captured civilians” falls apart for having no ground.

    In regard to your baseless claims on “Azerbaijan’s use of white phosphorous, cluster bombs, and prohibited munitions deployed by Azerbaijan against civilians and civilian infrastructure in Nagorno Karabakh” I’d say this is a joke by your side. No evidence on these fake claims as well.

    I believe that you were maybe drunk while claiming “Turkey’s and Azerbaijan’s recruitment of

    foreign terrorist fighters to participate in Azerbaijan’s offensive military operations against Nagorno Karabakh between September 27, 2020, and November 9, 2020”. Why do I think so? Just for very simple reason. A person must be drunk or very far from the issue to claim this way.

    Turkey helped Azerbaijan in this war in political and moral realms and we – the people of Azerbaijan and Turkey are happy with this. But no any person from Turkey or beyond was engaged in military actions in this war. For very simple reason: Azerbaijan does not need this kind of support as we have very professionally trained and well equipped Army. Plus if compare with Armenian Army and even two nations, Azerbaijan’s military, economic and human power is more from Armenia’s for several times. There is no logic to involve foreign fighters while the country has quite enough power. You as a member of Congress had to know this.

    And at last I’d call on you and likewise people to stay away and let the people of Azerbaijan and Armenia to find common language. We here in the Caucasus, which is very far from the US know better how to deal with issues of conflicts between ourselves rather than you. If people like you will stay away from the issues and will not make any interference we’ll find solutions to all questions in our geography. Once we reach an agreement with Armenians you’ll see that we can live together in peace and prosperity. And without your involvement…

    With hopes to be understood,

    Mr. Azer HASRET

    A Journalist, Human Rights and Civil Movement Activist

    Former Candidate to the Parliament of Azerbaijan

  • Afghanistan Evacuation

    Afghanistan Evacuation

    Joint Statement on Afghanistan Evacuation Travel Assurances
    MEDIA NOTE
    OFFICE OF THE SPOKESPERSON

    AUGUST 29, 2021

    The text of the following statement was released initially by the Governments of the United States of America, Albania, Australia, Belgium, Belize, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Canada, Central African Republic, Colombia, Costa Rica, Côte d’Ivoire, Croatia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Denmark, Djibouti, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Estonia, Eswatini, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Finland, France, Gabon, Georgia, Germany, Ghana, Greece, Guinea, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kiribati, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Madagascar, Maldives, Malta, Marshall Islands, Moldova, Montenegro, Morocco, Nauru, Netherlands, New Zealand, Niger, North Macedonia, Norway, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Poland, Portugal, Republic of Cyprus, Republic of Korea, Republic of Kosovo, Romania, Rwanda, Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Senegal, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Slovakia, Slovenia, Somalia, Spain, St. Kitts and Nevis, Sudan, Suriname, Sweden, Switzerland , The Bahamas, The Gambia, The High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Togo, Trinidad and Tobago, Turkey, Uganda, Ukraine, Union of the Comoros, United Kingdom, Vanuatu, Yemen, and Zambia with regard to Afghanistan evacuation travel assurances.

    Begin Text:

    We are all committed to ensuring that our citizens, nationals and residents, employees, Afghans who have worked with us and those who are at risk can continue to travel freely to destinations outside Afghanistan.  We have received assurances from the Taliban that all foreign nationals and any Afghan citizen with travel authorization from our countries will be allowed to proceed in a safe and orderly manner to points of departure and travel outside the country.  We will continue issuing travel documentation to designated Afghans, and we have the clear expectation of and commitment from the Taliban that they can travel to our respective countries.  We note the public statements of the Taliban confirming this understanding.

    End text.

  • Assad has won 4th term, what’s next?

    Assad has won 4th term, what’s next?

    assad banner 2021 afp
    People walk by an image of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on 10 May 2021 (AFP)

    Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was re-elected for the 4th term in office with 95.1% of the votes. According to Assad’s government, the election results proved Syria is functioning normally.

    This will extend his rule over a country despite harsh criticism from the United States, Germany, Italy, France and Turkey as well as Assad’s opponents in the country said the vote was illegitimate.

    Despite their condemnation of his brutal and authoritative regime during the decade-long Syrian civil war, imposing economic sanctions and militarily backing his opponents, the Syrian leader was able to remain in power and save the country from the territorial divide. Like a true captain of the wrecked ship, Bashar Al-Assad did not leave the war-torn country and, what’s important, did not let it collapse despite West’s multiple efforts to intervene.

    With Russia’s support, Assad arranged constant humanitarian help flows to the country and save the sovereignty of secular state despite endless clashes and civil war in the country. Moreover, Assad assured his supporters get access to education and healthcare while his government provided jobs to workers.

    Prior to the elections, the White House have warned Syrian President that it would not recognize the result of upcoming presidential election unless the voting is free, fair, and supervised by the United Nations while Biden administration said it had no plans to restart the dialogue “any time soon” claiming the Assad government failed to restore legitimacy in the country. With no doubts such open statements mean the West will continue its pressure to the Assad’s regime and will try to remove him from his post demonstrating a double standard “legitimacy” at its best.