During 2004 the USA looked at Middle East with important experiences because of Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, other Arab states, Gulf area, petrol and other events. There was a tension between the US, France and Germany.
In 2004, the USA tried to secure their position in Middle East although other’s position. Maybe there will be conflict between the USA and other NATO members. We can think that the USA thinks about only self-interests. But politic ways are giving these situations.
In Greater Middle East project without European coordinating is unknown. There is a problem of member states about how Bush administration will act with other European powers. They should keep the balance with the USA. And they didn’t understand the US’s actions.
We explain a circumstance as a period like post-cold war focus between European countries which are member of NATO, European Union and the USA. In the Middle East, there are several benefits of states as Greater Middle East project. But nobody decide to any thought about them as certainly.
US Efforts to Western Security on the Greater Middle East
There is a tension among powers. But Bush administration looked 2004 year as a new succesful and meaningful with NATO. The USA explain the Greater Middle East as a western, not only for the US responsibility But the US’s politics are not clear.
The US’s initiatives about Greater Middle East :
– The US encourage to build up NATO security in Afghanistan to defeat Al Qaida. With more than 6000 men the US can leave from responsibilities of heavy circumstances by this way. NATO also can look after this country.
– Another level is about Iraq. NATO and the US goes to modify the military posture in Iraq. NATO has serious power projection in Iraq; taking role of Polish-led international division and British division.
– The US is going to restructure force posture in Middle East and Central Asia. It wants to make new projects here which like European style.
– New power projection capabilities in NATO focused to Greater Middle East.
Some Important Things
When the USA is making these changes in Middle East ; there will be a different election of American president. Strongly againsts of Bush policies can win the elections easily and keep control of Congress. It will attack to policies of the Iraq War.
By the against ideas to policies maybe there will be disasters on Iraq policies and security. Because Bush administration was going to make big plans in here. But this is changable. It can be better…
For president Bush, there are some unguarantee circumstances. Because America trade terms are fragile. There is a big budget deficits.
About American Transformation
The USA has some problems about modernisation their army. The US’s defence budget is 400 $ billion for 2004. And there are some problems about future of army.
The US doesn’t has capability for long wars and additional attack. We can see this in Iraq war.
However the US need to helps from NATO and Europe. They sent NATO forces to Afghanistan. And they have British forces in Iraq. But it is not enough. They try to make some new additions.
Also the USA have three potential risks we can explain them easily :
– Another land, there is a unification of Taiwanese. Also the US and China association is good. But Taiwan will can be critic situation.
– In Latin America there is an influence of the US to Colombia. Their economic and politic structures are not good to the US.
For these circumstances the US need to stop their some budgets and they need to transformation their army. These are contradictions.
The European Security Datas
Untill this time, European countries have priorities on economic and social subjects. But later from this moment it will spend much money to defence.
The US is spending % 3.5 to defense of its GNP. Its 18 allies in NATO are spending something on the order of 140 $ billion.
In Transatlantic alliance, tensions of the US and France have made all situations. But France has tried another ways on modernisation, reform and militaric spending.
German works on their social and domestic problems. They spend to militaric modernisation less than cold war season.
TODAY
German spends 1.3-1.5%
The USA 3.6%
France 2.4%
Britain 2.6%
Spain 1.2%
Other European countries spend to specialize slowly. They are joining new world style of specialazition. We can give example for these countries like Spain, Norway, Poland. But there are other states, lie Belgium that is not making specialiaze.
By these actions we can not say something about European and NATO member countries achievement at their projects. There can be false and worse things.
Europe has also some afraids from Cold War. They went to make tampon areas to them and get from here some energy sources in the Persian Gulf and North Africa.
The World’s oil consumption : (million barrel)
1990 – 2000 -2005 – 2010 – 2015 – 2020 – 2025
66.1 – 76.9 – 81.1 – 89.7 – 98.8 – 108.2 – 118.8
Algeria Libya Oil Production :
2001 – 2010 – 2020 – 2025
3.3 – – 4.0 – – 5.0 – – 5.7
MENA – Total Production :
1990 – 2001 -2005 – 2010 – 2015 – 2020 – 2025
22.9 — 27.5 — 29.9 — 34.9 — 37.2 — 46.4 — 53.6
MENA – World Capacity : (%)
1990 – 2001 – 2010 – 2015 – 2020
33 – – 34.7 – – 39.5 – – 40.1 – – 43.0
The world need to strong energy as oil. They pay for this very much. And the USA also pay attention to this. And it should share all its imports with oil companions under the International Energy Agency.
Some Security Problems
With the threat of Soviet as Cold War, Europe planned to make tampon area the Middle East countries including as Greater Middle East.
With planning of the Greater Middle East plan, Islamic problems had existed in Muslim countries. After from Cold War, only problem is Islamic extremism an terrorism. With the mediatic influencings and circumstances about Arab-Israeli problems Western colonialism and religious problem, the Greater Middle East project was damaged.
Population Growth
With all growing, educational, political, social and economic systems must be balanced to these subjects. And with growing population, working also is growing. Working age is between 15 and 20.
MENA Population (million)
1950 – 1960 – 1970 – 1980- 1990 – 2000
78.6 – 101.2 -133.0 -177.9 – 244.8- 307.1
2010 – 2020 – 2030 – 2040 – 2050
376.2 – 449.3 – 522.3 – 592.1- 656.3
MENA Working Age Population
1950- 2000 -2050
20.5 -87.8- 145.2
Mean of growing is not only good things. It is bringing some social and economic turbulences. And there should be some solves to these problems.
By the all statistic datas, governing systems are also important in Middle East. Monarch as traditional interfere social structures. There should be democratic structure.
Afghanistan – Iraq – Arab and Israeli Conflicts
If the USA want to be succesful about Greater Middle East, it should regulate social situations in Afghanistan. There are some social pressures that are preventing access of the USA.
Also there is an influencing of Pakistani Islamic circumstance to Afghanistan. And as we know, Al Qaida is living in this state now. Al Qaida’s influence is very important.
On the other hand, there is a Russian interest in this area. Russian influence as important as other circumstances. The USA should prevent all negative subjects.
If the USA want to make peace and prevent Israeli-Arab war in Palestine, it should work with European states. Israel has some relations with all European states. If there is a common judge to Israel, it can go to finish.
But nobody finishes the war of Israel because there are common interests in this area with Israel. And the USA also has some interests. All meetings are unreal. For the USA and European states, the most important thing is oil. And they are meeting as friendly Arab states for oil. We can see these events in Arafat’s and Abbas’ season. This war can be finished by Muslim attack on Israel or common negotiations.
The biggest mistake of the USA is the bad acting to Iran. Because if we think rationally, the USA has a project about Middle East, but it is acting as badly with these countries. It is very interesting. It should repair their relations.
Bush administration or other Western thinkers are talking about clash between civilizations. But according to them, only Muslim geography has clashing problem among each other. We should think that Western world doesn’t want to peace among the Muslims. Because their self interests are important.
Another hand, there is clash among Western societies. This clash theory had been told for making false thoughts amon Muslims.
The USA knows all situations and they balance all events for their interests.
New Security Mission
According to our datas, the Greater Middle East project will be defeated. Because the USA is losting all balance powers on this area. Already, this is for the USA.
They want to take oil because the USA’s blood is only oil. So, their greed is only for these things on this project. They are making wars in all Muslim countries. We need to time for looking all defeatings of Western world if they are on only this way.
Mehmet Fatih Oztarsu
Baku Qafqaz University
Energy Institute
