Category: USA

Turkey could be America’s most important regional ally, above Iraq, even above Israel, if both sides manage the relationship correctly.

  • Turkey’s Spymaster Plots Own Course on Syria

    Turkey’s Spymaster Plots Own Course on Syria

    Hakan Fidan Takes Independent Tack in Wake of Arab Spring

      By

    • ADAM ENTOUS
    • in Washington and

    • JOE PARKINSON
    • in Istanbul

    [image]Official White House Photo by Pete SouzaPresident Obama and John Kerry met with Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and Turkish intelligence chief Fidan, second and third from left, in May.

    On a rainy May day, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan led two of his closest advisers into the Oval Office for what both sides knew would be a difficult meeting.

    It was the first face-to-face between Mr. Erdogan and President Barack Obama in almost a year. Mr. Obama delivered what U.S. officials describe as an unusually blunt message: The U.S. believed Turkey was letting arms and fighters flow into Syria indiscriminately and sometimes to the wrong rebels, including anti-Western jihadists.

    Seated at Mr. Erdogan’s side was the man at the center of what caused the U.S.’s unease, Hakan Fidan, Turkey’s powerful spymaster and a driving force behind its efforts to supply the rebels and topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

    In the wake of the Arab Spring uprisings, Mr. Fidan, little known outside of the Middle East, has emerged as a key architect of a Turkish regional-security strategy that has tilted the interests of the longtime U.S. ally in ways sometimes counter to those of the U.S.

     

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    “Hakan Fidan is the face of the new Middle East,” says James Jeffrey, who recently served as U.S. ambassador in Turkey and Iraq. “We need to work with him because he can get the job done,” he says. “But we shouldn’t assume he is a knee-jerk friend of the United States, because he is not.”

    Mr. Fidan is one of three spy chiefs jostling to help their countries fill a leadership vacuum created by the upheaval and by America’s tentative approach to much of the region.

    One of his counterparts is Prince Bandar bin Sultan al-Saud, Saudi Arabia’s intelligence chief, who has joined forces with the Central Intelligence Agency in Syria but who has complicated U.S. policy in Egypt by supporting a military takeover there. The other is Iran’s Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, commander-in-chief of the Quds Forces, the branch of the elite Revolutionary Guard Corps that operates outside of Iran and whose direct military support for Mr. Assad has helped keep him in power.

    Meet the Middle East’s spymasters. Dubai real estate-palooza. Divers assess the Lampedusa wreck. WSJ tracks stories from around the world in The Foreign Bureau. Photo: Associated Press

    Mr. Fidan’s rise to prominence has accompanied a notable erosion in U.S. influence over Turkey. Washington long had cozy relations with Turkey’s military, the second-largest army in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. But Turkey’s generals are now subservient to Mr. Erdogan and his closest advisers, Mr. Fidan and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who are using the Arab Spring to shift Turkey’s focus toward expanding its regional leadership, say current and former U.S. officials.

    Mr. Fidan, 45 years old, didn’t respond to requests for an interview. Mr. Erdogan’s office declined to elaborate on his relationship with Mr. Fidan.

    The U.S. and Turkey are clashing over Syria, complicating U.S. efforts and highlighting how Middle East turmoil is upending longstanding alliances. Adam Entous reports. Photo: AP.

    At the White House meeting, the Turks pushed back at the suggestion that they were aiding radicals and sought to enlist the U.S. to aggressively arm the opposition, the U.S. officials briefed on the discussions say. Turkish officials this year have used meetings like this to tell the Obama administration that its insistence on a smaller-scale effort to arm the opposition hobbled the drive to unseat Mr. Assad, Turkish and U.S. officials say.

    Mr. Fidan is the prime minister’s chief implementer.

    Since he took over Turkey’s national-intelligence apparatus, the Milli Istihbarat Teskilati, or MIT, in 2010, Mr. Fidan has shifted the agency’s focus to match Mr. Erdogan’s.

    His growing role has met a mixture of alarm, suspicion and grudging respect in Washington, where officials see him as a reliable surrogate for Mr. Erdogan in dealing with broader regional issues—the futures of Egypt, Libya and Syria, among them—that the Arab Spring has brought to the bilateral table.

    Mr. Fidan raised concerns three years ago, senior U.S. officials say, when he rattled Turkey’s allies by allegedly passing to Iran sensitive intelligence collected by the U.S. and Israel.

    More recently, Turkey’s Syria approach, carried out by Mr. Fidan, has put it at odds with the U.S. Both countries want Mr. Assad gone. But Turkish officials have told the Americans they see an aggressive international arming effort as the best way. The cautious U.S. approach reflects the priority it places on ensuring that arms don’t go to the jihadi groups that many U.S. officials see as a bigger threat to American interests than Mr. Assad.

    U.S. intelligence agencies believe Mr. Fidan doesn’t aim to undercut the U.S. but to advance Mr. Erdogan’s interests. In recent months, as radical Islamists expanded into northern Syria along the Turkish border, Turkish officials have begun to recalibrate their policy—concerned not about U.S. complaints but about the threat to Turkey’s security, say U.S. and Turkish officials.

    There is no doubt in Turkey where the spymaster stands. Mr. Fidan is “the No. 2 man in Turkey,” says Emre Uslu, a Turkish intelligence analyst who writes for a conservative daily. “He’s much more powerful than any minister and much more powerful than President Abdullah Gul.”

    Still, he cuts a modest figure. Current and former Turkish officials describe him as gentle and unpretentious. In U.S. meetings, he wears dark suits and is soft-spoken, say U.S. officials who have met him repeatedly and contrast him with Prince Bandar, the swashbuckling Saudi intelligence chief.

    “He’s not Bandar,” one of the officials says. “No big cigars, no fancy suits, no dark glasses. He’s not flamboyant.”

    Mr. Fidan’s ascension is remarkable in part because he is a former noncommissioned officer in the Turkish military, a class that usually doesn’t advance to prominent roles in the armed forces, business or government.

    Mr. Fidan earned a bachelor of science degree in government and politics from the European division of the University of Maryland University College and a doctorate in political science from Ankara’s elite Bilkent University. In 2003, he was appointed to head Turkey’s international-development agency.

    He joined Mr. Erdogan’s office as a foreign-policy adviser in 2007. Three years later, he was head of intelligence.

    “He is my secret keeper. He is the state’s secret keeper,” Mr. Erdogan said of his intelligence chief in 2012 in comments to reporters.

    Mr. Fidan’s rise at Mr. Erdogan’s side has been met with some concern in Washington and Israel because of his role in shaping Iran policy. One senior Israeli official says it became clear to Israel that Mr. Fidan was “not an enemy of Iran.” And mistrust already marked relations between the U.S. and Turkish intelligence agencies. The CIA spies on Turkey and the MIT runs an aggressive counterintelligence campaign against the CIA, say current and former U.S. officials.

    The tension was aggravated in 2010 when the CIA began to suspect the MIT under Mr. Fidan of passing intelligence to Iran.

    At the time, Mr. Erdogan was trying to improve ties with Tehran, a central plank of Ankara’s “zero problems with neighbors” policy. U.S. officials believe the MIT under Mr. Fidan passed several pieces of intelligence to Iran, including classified U.S. assessments about the Iranian government, say current and former senior U.S. and Middle Eastern officials.

    U.S. officials say they don’t know why Mr. Fidan allegedly shared the intelligence, but suspect his goal was relationship-building. After the Arab Spring heightened tensions, Mr. Erdogan pulled back from his embrace of Tehran, at which point U.S. officials believe Mr. Fidan did so, too.

    Officials at the MIT and Turkey’s foreign ministry declined to comment on the allegations.

    In 2012, Mr. Fidan began expanding the MIT’s power by taking control of Turkey’s once-dominant military-intelligence service. Many top generals with close ties to the U.S. were jailed as part of a mass trial and convicted this year of plotting to topple Mr. Erdogan’s government. At the Pentagon, the jail sentences were seen as the coup de grace for the military’s status within the Turkish system.

    Mr. Fidan’s anti-Assad campaign harks to August 2011, when Mr. Erdogan called for Mr. Assad to step down. Mr. Fidan later started directing a secret effort to bolster rebel capabilities by allowing arms, money and logistical support to funnel into northern Syria—including arms from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Gulf allies—current and former U.S. officials say.

    Mr. Erdogan wanted to remove Mr. Assad not only to replace a hostile regime on Turkey’s borders but also to scuttle the prospect of a Kurdish state emerging from Syria’s oil-rich northeast, political analysts say.

    Providing aid through the MIT, a decision that came in early 2012, ensured Mr. Erdogan’s office had control over the effort and that it would be relatively invisible, say current and former U.S. officials.

    Syrian opposition leaders, American officials and Middle Eastern diplomats who worked with Mr. Fidan say the MIT acted like a “traffic cop” that arranged weapons drops and let convoys through checkpoints along Turkey’s 565-mile border with Syria.

    Some moderate Syrian opposition leaders say they immediately saw that arms shipments bypassed them and went to groups linked to the Muslim Brotherhood. Mr. Erdogan’s Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party has supported Muslim Brotherhood movements across the region.

    Syrian Kurdish leaders, meanwhile, charge that Ankara allowed arms and support to reach radical groups that could check the expanding power of Kurdish militia aligned with Turkey’s militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party.

    Turkish border guards repeatedly let groups of radical fighters cross into Syria to fight Kurdish brigades, says Salih Muslim, co-chairman of the Democratic Union of Syria, Turkey’s most powerful Kurdish party. He says Turkish ambulances near the border picked up wounded fighters from Jabhat al Nusra, an anti-Assad group linked to al Qaeda. Turkish officials deny those claims.

    Opposition lawmakers from the border province of Hatay say Turkish authorities transported Islamist fighters to frontier villages and let fighter-filled planes land at Hatay airport. Turkish officials deny both allegations.

    Mehmet Ali Ediboglu, a lawmaker for Hatay’s largest city, Antakya, and a member of the parliament’s foreign-relations committee, says he followed a convoy of more than 50 buses carrying radical fighters and accompanied by 10 police vehicles to the border village of Guvecci. “This was just one incident of many,” he says. Voters in his district strongly oppose Turkish support for the Syrian opposition. Turkish officials deny Mr. Ediboglu’s account.

    In meetings with American officials and Syrian opposition leaders, Turkish officials said the threat posed by Jabhat al Nusra, the anti-Assad group, could be dealt with later, say U.S. officials and Syrian opposition leaders.

    The U.S. added Nusra to its terror list in December, in part to send a message to Ankara about the need to more tightly control the arms flow, say officials involved in the internal discussions.

    The May 2013 White House encounter came at a time when Mr. Obama had grown increasingly uncomfortable with the Turkish leader’s policies relating to Syria, Israel and press freedoms, say current and former U.S. officials.

    Mr. Obama told the Turkish leaders he wanted a close relationship, but he voiced concerns about Turkey’s approach to arming the opposition. The goal was to convince the Turks that “not all fighters are good fighters” and that the Islamist threat could harm the wider region, says a senior U.S. official.

    This year, Turkey has dialed back on its arming efforts as it begins to worry that the influence of extremist rebel groups in Syria might bleed back into Turkey. At Hatay airport, the alleged way station for foreign fighters headed to Syria, the flow has markedly decreased, says a representative of a service company working at the airport.

    In September, Turkey temporarily shut part of its border after fighting erupted between moderate Syrian rebels and an Iraqi al Qaeda outfit, the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham. Turkish President Gul warned that “radical groups are a big worry when it comes to our security.”

    In recent months, Turkish officials have told U.S. counterparts that they believe the lack of American support for the opposition has fueled extremism because front-line brigades believe the West has abandoned them, say U.S. and Turkish officials involved in the discussions.

    In September, Mr. Davutoglu, the foreign minister, met Secretary of State John Kerry, telling him Turkey was concerned about extremists along the Syrian border, say U.S. and Turkish officials. The Turks wanted Mr. Kerry to affirm that the U.S. remained committed to the Syrian opposition, say U.S. officials.

    Mr. Kerry told Turkish officials the U.S. was committed but made clear, a senior administration official says of the Turkish leaders, that “they need to be supportive of the right people.”

    Also in September, Mr. Fidan met with CIA Director John Brennan and Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, say Turkish and U.S. officials, who decline to say what was discussed.

    A former senior U.S. intelligence official says Mr. Fidan has built strong relationships with many of his international counterparts. At the same time, a current U.S. intelligence official says, it is clear “we look at the world through different lenses.”

    Write to Adam Entous at adam.entous@wsj.com and Joe Parkinson atjoe.parkinson@wsj.com

    P1-BN482_USTURK_G_20131009222734

    A version of this article appeared October 10, 2013, on page A1 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Turkey’s Spymaster Plots Own Course on Syria.

  • Understanding the basis and impact of recent political developments in Turkey

    Understanding the basis and impact of recent political developments in Turkey

    You are invited to join us for IPCC October’s luncheon. This month our guest speaker is Dr. Hande Ozdinler.

     

    Dr. Hande Ozdinler is a member of the International Press Club of Chicago and has been an international press member since 2001, affiliated with Cumhuriyet Newspaper in Turkey.  In addition to directing one of two major ALS research labs at Northwestern University, Dr. Ozdinler publishes on science, technology, education, and women rights issues. She was also a columnist for the Turkish Journal for over two years.
    Dr. Ozdinler is of Turkish origin and has been closely following the recent unrest and Istanbul Gezi Park events in Turkey, as she spent her childhood in Gezi Park and is one of the members of the ChicagoTurkishForum.  She is an avid  supporter of science and technology driven freethinking and believes that current events give us hope for the future. In addition to being a scientist and an international press member, Dr. Ozdinler is a writer, photographer and a mother.  Dr. Ozdinler’s work has been featured at Forbes, Harvard Business Review-TR and her scientific discoveries were recently covered by WGN-Chicago.

     

    Please ensure you RSVP by going online to secure your seat. Simply click the red RSVP on the left column to complete the registration and payment prior to Monday, October 14, 2013.

     

    We encourage you to extend this invitation to your friends and colleagues.

    Sincerely,

    Wayne Toberman

    President, International Press Club of Chicago

     

    Guest Speaker: Dr. Hande Ozdinler

    54

    Topic: “Understanding the basis and impact of recent political developments in Turkey”

  • Al Qaeda Leader In Syria Photographed Inside U.S. Aid Tent

    Al Qaeda Leader In Syria Photographed Inside U.S. Aid Tent

    Untitled - 2

     

    The USAID website explains that the organization “carries out U.S. foreign policy by promoting broad-scale human progress at the same time it expands stable, free societies, creates markets and trade partners for the United States, and fosters good will abroad.”

  • Global anti-terrorism fund grants would battle radicalization process

    Global anti-terrorism fund grants would battle radicalization process

    NEW YORK, Sept. 27 (UPI) — U.S. officials hope a $200 million fund will be effective in stemming extremism by eroding jihadists’ ideological and recruiting appeal in havens for terrorists.

    20130425_radical_islam_shhh_LARGEThe U.S. State Department said diplomats from the United States and Turkey Friday plan to announce a $200 million fund to help prevent the radicalization process used by terrorists, The New York Times reported.

    The new Global Fund for Community Engagement and Resilience will, for the first time, combine financing from government and non-government entities to identify credible local organizations; develop, monitor and evaluate programs; and channel funds to local projects that target groups and individuals vulnerable to appeals from terrorist groups, officials said. The fund is expected to be operational by the middle of 2014.

    The initiative is to be announced by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu during a meeting of foreign ministers of the Global Counterterrorism Forum in New York. The United States and Turkey lead the organization of 29 countries and the European Union that acts as a clearinghouse of ideas and actions for civilian counter-terrorism specialists.

    “Countries that have a radicalization problem previously had to rely on ad hoc support from wealthier donor nations, many of which are not bureaucratically capable of sponsoring the small intervention programs necessary to disrupt the radicalization process,” William McCants, a former State Department counter-terrorism official now with the Brookings Institution, told the Times. “Now countries can turn to the global fund to sponsor programs that will pull young men and women back from the edge of terrorist violence.”

    The United States is expected to contribute between $2 million and $3 million initially to the fund, which will be administered in Geneva, Switzerland. Besides Turkey, other likely donors include the European Union, Canada, Qatar, Denmark, Britain and private sources.

    U.S. officials said the fund is expected to raise more than $200 million over a 10-year period.

    Fund grants would provide vocational training to youths at risk of being recruited by terrorist organizations, U.S. officials said. Funds also would be channeled to new school curricula that teach tolerance and problem-solving, along with underwriting websites and social networks that would educate youth about the dangers of violent extremist ideologies.

    Topics: John Kerry, Ahmet Davutoglu, Brookings Institution

    via Global anti-terrorism fund grants would battle radicalization process – UPI.com.

  • FOR GOD’S SAKE STOP SAYING “INSHALLAH”

    FOR GOD’S SAKE STOP SAYING “INSHALLAH”

    eating heart
    SYRIA

    Haven’t you learned anything yet, you victims of Islamo-fascism? You victims of high treason. You victims of occupation by foreign powers. Haven’t you learned that you and your Inshallahs are condoning, allowing, and approving the crimes of the fascist Islamists that have ruled Turkey for over a decade. All their plans are prefaced with barrages of “Inshallah,” as if Allah is complicit with their criminal schemes. You surely remember well their schemes. You have nightmares about them. Allah and God and Yahweh are not plunderers, not murderers, not liars, not traitors, not rapists, not conniving ignoramuses. So stop saying “Inshallah.” Allah is disgusted with his/her name being linked with such criminal, sinful behavior. If there were a judiciary system in Turkey Allah would sue the government for defamation of character. For if you continue using this defamatory mantra, you will be spiritual collaborators with those international felons who are destroying your country in the name of—guess who?—Allah! And in your name and the name of your Inshallahs!

    You and your “Inshallahs.” Like a neurotic, nervous tic, you drone Inshallahs for every mundane event. You will go shopping and Inshallah there will be bread. You will drive to the city and Inshallah there will be a parking place. You will go on vacation and Inshallah there will be good weather. Inshallah, the fish will be delicious at the restaurant you recommended. Inshallah, the mechanic will have a carburetor for your automobile. Inshallah, tomorrow I will stop saying Inshallah, Inshallah, Inshallah, Inshallah………..

    This so-called government of yours says “Inshallah” too. When it blinds your daughter, it says Inshallah. When it kills your sons, it says Inshallah. It gasses your children, destroys your mountains, your rivers, your farms, your security, all aspects of justice, and your human rights, then your government says Inshallah. It destroys the army and says Inshallah. It imprisons patriots and says Inshallah. It enslaves women in headscarves and says Inshallah. Your government perverts your educational system and says Inshallah. It finances genocide against the Syrian people and says Inshallah. Your government lies while addressing the United Nations and says Inshallah. It collaborates with America to betray your country in the name of Allah. It supports financially and morally the low-life scum that yells “Allahu ekber” while eating the hearts of still-living Syrian soldiers.  Indeed, how great is this God? How great is this Allah when your government’s police attack your children shouting “Allahu ekber?”  You say that these people are not your government, not your police. But your tax money finances them and your Inshallahs and their Inshallahs echo to the heavens all of them seeking Allah’s blessing. How sick is this? Just what is Allah to do, being bombarded with Inshallahs from all directions and for all purposes from trivial to bestial?

    For God’s sake stop saying “İnshallah!”
    And for Allah’s sake all you others stop saying “God bless America!” 

    James C. Ryan, Ph.D.
    Dublin, Ireland
    28 September 2013

     

  • SYRIA ; To Bomb or Not to Bomb  .. MESSAGE FROM WHITE HOUSE

    SYRIA ; To Bomb or Not to Bomb .. MESSAGE FROM WHITE HOUSE

    OBAMADAN GELEN MESAJ

    Subject: Syria
    Date: Tue, 10 Sep 2013 23:56:52 -0500
    To: hnurgel@hotmail.com
    From: president@messages.whitehouse.gov

    The White House, Washington

    Good evening —
    I just addressed the nation about the use of chemical weapons in Syria.
    Over the past two years, what began as a series of peaceful protests against the repressive regime of Bashar al-Assad has turned into a brutal civil war in Syria. Over 100,000 people have been killed.
    In that time, we have worked with friends and allies to provide humanitarian support for the Syrian people, to help the moderate opposition within Syria, and to shape a political settlement. But we have resisted calls for military action because we cannot resolve someone else’s civil war through force.
    The situation profoundly changed in the early hours of August 21, when more than 1,000 Syrians — including hundreds of children — were killed by chemical weapons launched by the Assad government.
    What happened to those people — to those children — is not only a violation of international law — it’s also a danger to our security. Here’s why:
    If we fail to act, the Assad regime will see no reason to stop using chemical weapons. As the ban against these deadly weapons erodes, other tyrants and authoritarian regimes will have no reason to think twice about acquiring poison gases and using them. Over time, our troops could face the prospect of chemical warfare on the battlefield. It could be easier for terrorist organizations to obtain these weapons and use them to attack civilians. If fighting spills beyond Syria’s borders, these weapons could threaten our allies in the region.
    So after careful deliberation, I determined that it is in the national security interests of the United States to respond to the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons through a targeted military strike. The purpose of this strike would be to deter Assad from using chemical weapons, to degrade his regime’s ability to use them, and make clear to the world that we will not tolerate their use.
    Though I possess the authority to order these strikes, in the absence of a direct threat to our security I believe that Congress should consider my decision to act. Our democracy is stronger when the President acts with the support of Congress — and when Americans stand together as one people.
    Over the last few days, as this debate unfolds, we’ve already begun to see signs that the credible threat of U.S. military action may produce a diplomatic breakthrough. The Russian government has indicated a willingness to join with the international community in pushing Assad to give up his chemical weapons and the Assad regime has now admitted that it has these weapons, and even said they’d join the Chemical Weapons Convention, which prohibits their use.
    It’s too early to tell whether this offer will succeed, and any agreement must verify that the Assad regime keeps its commitments. But this initiative has the potential to remove the threat of chemical weapons without the use of force.
    That’s why I’ve asked the leaders of Congress to postpone a vote to authorize the use of force while we pursue this diplomatic path. I’m sending Secretary of State John Kerry to meet his Russian counterpart on Thursday, and I will continue my own discussions with President Putin. At the same time, we’ll work with two of our closest allies — France and the United Kingdom — to put forward a resolution at the U.N. Security Council requiring Assad to give up his chemical weapons, and to ultimately destroy them under international control.
    Meanwhile, I’ve ordered our military to maintain their current posture to keep the pressure on Assad, and to be in a position to respond if diplomacy fails. And tonight, I give thanks again to our military and their families for their incredible strength and sacrifices.
    As we continue this debate — in Washington, and across the country — I need your help to make sure that everyone understands the factors at play.
    Please share this message with others to make sure they know where I stand, and how they can stay up to date on this situation. Anyone can find the latest information about the situation in Syria, including video of tonight’s address, here:
    issues/foreign-policy/syria
    Thank you,
    President Barack Obama

    This email was sent to hnurgel@hotmail.com.
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    Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House

    The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 •  numbers button skype logo202-456-1111 

    =============

    From: Nursel Oran [mailto:nurander@primus.ca]

     

     

    “In April 2009, an Abu Dhabi newspaper carried the news that Qatar had proposed a gas pipeline from the Persian Gulf to Turkey. The Gulf sheikhdom had just finished an ambitious program to more than double its capacity to produce liquefied natural gas at the world’s biggest gas field and needed access to European markets, bypassing the troubled Persian Gulf where the threat of Iran hangs over the heads of the region’s medieval monarchs… But what Qatar and Turkey had not foreseen was the fact President Assad of Syria would have the gall to say ‘No’ to their moneymaking venture, instead inking deals with both Russia and Iran.”

     

    September 11, 2013

     

    suriye

     

    To Bomb or Not to Bomb

     

    Tarek Fatah

    The Toronto Sun

     

    While Russia and America try to outfox each other in the equivalent of a 21st century “Great Game,” Syria’s next-door neighbour Israel may end up being drawn into the conflict.

     

    After all, the Syrian civil war has taken place very close to Israel’s northern borders and the prospect of Hezbollah getting its hands on Syrian chemical weapons cannot be ruled out, despite a number of Israeli air attacks on Syrian convoys that were suspected of transferring military equipment to southern Lebanon.

     

    For the first time, Israel has deployed its Iron Dome anti-missile defence battery in the Jerusalem area. Last week, the IDF had moved Iron Dome batteries to various locations, including the Tel Aviv area, in response to the possibility of reprisals for an American attack against Syria.

     

    The possibility of cruise missiles landing in Damascus triggered serious debate on Monday at the opening of the World Summit on Counter-Terrorism hosted by the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism at the Interdisciplinary Centre in Herzliya, Israel.

     

    Uzi Arad, the former head of the Israeli National Security Council, told the conference he doubted if an attack on Syrian government forces by the U.S. would be successful.

     

    Speaking to a packed audience, Arad surprised delegates from more than 50 countries when he criticized President Barack Obama, saying the American leader, by threatening Damascus, had bitten off more than he could chew. Arad, once an adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Netenyahu, suggested the best thing President Obama could do now was to extricate himself from the corner he had backed himself into with as much dignity as possible.

     

    Twenty-four hours later, the American president seems to have received just such a chance to back out from his disastrous diplomatic debacle. This happened when the Russians called John Kerry’s bluff and obtained agreement from Syria to place its chemical weapons under international control.

     

    At the summit, Uzi Arad not only dismissed the Obama-Kerry proposed response as a bad idea, he openly questioned its legality. He told the counter-terrorism summit, “Syria is not a signatory to international conventions against the use of chemical weapons,” making the legal basis for intervention somewhat shoddy. “You cannot say that Assad violated an international convention Syria is not signed on to.”

     

    The annual summit attracted nearly 1,000 delegates from more than 50 countries ranging from India and Brazil to Canada and Australia. They included academics, intelligence officials, retired generals and police officials, and the one question on everyone’s mind, was this: “Why can’t America get its act together?”

     

    Few were aware of the oil factor behind the Syrian civil war.

     

    In April 2009, an Abu Dhabi newspaper carried the news that Qatar had proposed a gas pipeline from the Persian Gulf to Turkey. The Gulf sheikhdom had just finished an ambitious program to more than double its capacity to produce liquefied natural gas at the world’s biggest gas field and needed access to European markets, bypassing the troubled Persian Gulf where the threat of Iran hangs over the heads of the region’s medieval monarchs.

     

    Following talks with the Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan, the then ruler of Qatar Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani told the media, “We are eager to have a gas pipeline from Qatar to Turkey.” But what Qatar and Turkey had not foreseen was the fact President Assad of Syria would have the gall to say ‘No’ to their moneymaking venture, instead inking deals with both Russia and Iran.

     

    As one counter-terrorism expert at the Herzliya summit said, “follow the money.”