Category: America

  • Turkey wants end to Canada’s stance on Armenian genocide

    Turkey wants end to Canada’s stance on Armenian genocide

    Mike Blanchfield, The Canadian Press

    Published Sunday, April 7, 2013 12:40PM EDT

    OTTAWA — Turkey’s ambassador to Canada says the Harper government’s decision to brand the killing of Armenians by Ottoman Turks as genocide may be hindering a potentially lucrative trading relationship.

    Ambassador Tuncay Babali made clear in a wide ranging interview with The Canadian Press that Canada’s position on the First World War-era slaughter of an estimated 1.5 million Armenians still carries a sting for his country.

    But that doesn’t mean Turkey doesn’t want to press on with forging a deeper economic relationship with Canada, ideally a free trade agreement to compliment the current Canada-EU free trade talks once they are completed, he said.

    image

    Thousands of people march to mark the death of 1.5 million Armenians in the former Ottoman empire, in Los Angeles, Tuesday, April 24, 2012. (AP / Nick Ut)

    Read more: http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/turkey-wants-end-to-canada-s-stance-on-armenian-genocide-1.1227732#ixzz2PqZIHhWZ

    Thousands of demonstrators march to mark the death of 1.5 million Armenians in the former Ottoman empire in Los Angeles in this 2012 file photo. (AP / Damian Dovarganes)

    “I’m a true believer in the potential of our two nations. Canada has a lot to offer Turkey and Turkey in return has a lot to offer Canada,” said Babali, noting that Canada’s internal Foreign Policy Plan has identified Turkey as a key country of focus.

    “It cannot be business as usual while accusing a nation of genocide. It’s a serious allegation. It needs to be substantiated, legally, historically.”

    Babali said he suspects Canada is not engaging as quickly as Turkey would like because the genocide issue is still hanging over relations.

    “There is a pacing issue here,” he said. “We want results. We want action. We want concrete steps forward. Talking about positive things is ok, but it takes two to tango.”

    The $2.5 billion in two-way trade between countries “is far from the potential” of what Turkey predicts would result from deeper economic ties: $10-$15 billion within five years, he said.

    He said Turkey would like to open free trade talks with Canada.

    But on the genocide question, Babali said Turkey would like to see a gesture from Canada that the government is “trying to leave this behind us.”

    A significant gesture would be a “high level” visit by Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird to Turkey. Baird cancelled a planned trip in November, Babali said, because of an important cabinet meeting in Ottawa.

    Babali was also encourged by Baird’s plans to travel to the West Bank on the weekend to discuss future Canadian aid contributions to the Palestinian Authority.

    He suggested Canada can do more in the Middle East peace process, even though Turkey is well aware of Ottawa’s strong support of Israel.

    “I think aid is important. To keep the channels open. You have to hear both sides. Canada has leverage that can play in those issues as well. It should be used in a stronger way.”

    Babali praised the efforts of Baird for mending fences with Turkey, including the personal friendship he has forged with his counterpart, Ahmet Davutolu, who visited Canada this past September.

    “We have good room to manoeuvre here after our minister’s visit. But it takes two to tango,” he said.

    “If there is a political will from the Canadian side to move forward and improve our relations further, to live up to the promise and potential, we need concrete steps.”

    Canada’s Parliament voted in 2004 to recognize the events of 1915 to 1923 as a genocide carried out by Ottoman Turks during the Armenian uprising.

    The Harper government formally adopted that position after winning power, a decision that angered Ankara and sparked the temporary withdrawal of its ambassador from Ottawa.

    Turkey has lobbied hard internationally to block the genocide designation, although many other countries have used the term.

    In 2010, when the U.S. Congress abandoned a plan to declare the killings a genocide, Davutolu said ties could have been harmed between the two countries had “common sense” not prevailed.

    Last year, when France passed a law that makes it a crime to deny the Armenian genocide, Turkey responded by suspending military, economic and political ties.

    Last summer, Canada took steps to heal the rift with Turkey. It unveiled a cone-shaped metal-and-wood monument dedicated to Col. Atilla Altikat, the country’s military attache gunned down in Ottawa, allegedly by Armenian terrorists, 30 years earlier.

    That appeared to go a long way towards bridging the gap between the two countries, both NATO allies.

    Babali reiterated what Davutolu said during his visit — that Turkey would like to strike a joint commission with Armenians to discuss the historical facts surrounding the issue.

    During the visit, Baird did not back away from his government’s earlier position, but said he appreciated the sensitivities at play.

    Babali said Turkey wants deeper economic ties with Canada, and it appears the country is open for business despite any bitterness over the Armenia policy.

    In the next 10 years, Turkey will launch 150 infrastructure projects worth hundreds of billions of dollars, many in the transportation sector. Babali cited Bombardier Inc. and SNC-Lavalin as potential investors.

    He also said there are also opportunities for Canadian companies in his country’s developing nuclear energy program and in shale gas exploration.

    via Turkey wants end to Canada’s stance on Armenian genocide | CTV News.

  • Why you can never get bored of Turkey’s agenda

    Why you can never get bored of Turkey’s agenda

    Turkey is a country that could be a goldmine for any journalist. The agenda of the country is full of such a wide range of issues that even a seasoned Turkish observer can be overwhelmed, let alone a foreigner. This also makes Turkey an interesting case to follow. One day we debate the accuracy of a TV series on life in the Ottoman palace following criticism by the prime minister, the next day we find ourselves in the middle of a debate on abortion and even C-sections.

    I’d like to provide you a synopsis of some of the issues that dominated the domestic agenda of Turkey in recent weeks:

    Wise men committees: Hardly anyone could trace this debate to its origins, but all of a sudden Turkey began to discuss the lists of names that could be included in the “wise men” group that could facilitate the settlement process with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Although government members talked vaguely about a suggestion to form such a group to “convince public opinion on the negotiations,” in the prime minister’s terms, and no names have been uttered by any official authority, lists of names appeared in many mainstream newspapers of the country. Among the names that were obviously randomly picked were liberal columnists and Kurdish intellectuals, but also an actor named Kadir Inanir, who is highly irrelevant to the issue. Aside from his one recent comment in favor of peace in an interview, nobody really knows what his contribution could be. When a deputy prime minister finally announced that no names were determined yet, the discussion slowed down. However, in the meantime social media in particular focused on a debate on possible names rather than the details of the process. Given how we handled even the potential formation of such a group, I have strong doubts that it could serve any good. Both the process and the idea of wise men are critical issues that deserve to be discussed with a serious attitude. When formed, the wise men committee should include people that not only intellectuals could welcome, but the overall population could respect and listen to.

    Apology: Just one day after the country witnessed the historic “peace call” at Nevruz (a spring festival particularly celebrated by Kurds in Turkey), Israel’s long-awaited “apology” has come. Barack Obama brokered the peace between Turkey and Israel just before he ended his visit to the latter. Turkey announced that all of its conditions to normalize relations after the fatal Mavi Marmara raid by Israeli forces that ended in the killing of nine Turks in international waters in 2009 were met.

    The “apology” was considered a diplomatic victory of Turkey by many, but a debate has emerged over why Israel actually apologized three years after the incident. Some argue that it was somehow connected to Syria or Iran while Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu dismissed this. Amid these scenarios, something that could probably only happen in Turkey took place on the streets of Ankara. The mayor of the capital from the governing AK Party decorated the streets of Ankara with billboards expressing “gratitude” to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on his victory over Netanyahu. This act almost unanimously was considered as an election investment of the mayor to be considered as a candidate by the prime minister in local elections next year while taking its place in the long record of idiosyncrasies in Turkish politics.

    Press freedom: Turkey cannot be considered a fully liberal democracy yet. Accordingly, it has problems in the implementation of laws in interpreting terrorism, which results in the imprisonment of people advocating for the terrorist organizations (this is subject to reform currently). However, it would be an injustice to the country to consider it in the league of China in terms of freedoms.

    I believe the biggest obstacle in the way of complete freedom of press is the media ownership by big business owners. Due to their economic interests in state tenders and all, more often than not owners of the media in Turkey impose an internal censorship on columnists.

    Of course, the intervention of the prime minister in the media and his telling newspaper owners whom to employ is not acceptable either. However, in a country where a businessman calls the prime minister and asks whom to appoint as the editor-in-chief to his newly bought newspapers (Vatan and Milliyet), the burden remains on the shoulders of the latter. Most recently, veteran journalist Hasan Cemal was fired from Milliyet after his final column criticizing the problematic structure of media ownership in Turkey was not published in the paper (it was later published by Internet media). It is still not totally clear whether the prime minister’s criticism of his previous column on the settlement process scared the owner, the Demiroren family, and led to Cemal’s layoff.

    Mosque on Camlica Hill: On Saturday the construction of the long-debated mosque on Camlica Hill started. Despite a project contest, many, including me, argued that a bad copy of an Ottoman mosque on a hill would be a betrayal of the city’s rich heritage.

    Along with the mosque, projects to redesign Taksim Square and a hideous bridge on the Golden Horn are in progress. Even as an Istanbulite, I have no idea who proposes offers and decides on such projects that will leave a permanent mark on the city.

    Anything that will have an impact on a historic city like Istanbul should be decided by a major consensus after careful deliberation of experts and public opinion. However, we live in a system run by “fait accompli” mentality.

  • Iran taking lessons from Turkey in combating Israel

    Iran taking lessons from Turkey in combating Israel

    Kerry arrives in an Ankara eager for role in Mideast diplomatic process; Iranian ambassador says Turkey’s constant resistance proves “we can take what we want to take from Israel.”

    ShowImage

    US Secretary of State John Kerry, February 8, 2013. Photo: REUTERS/Jason Reed

    When apologizing last month for operational errors that might have led to the loss of life on the Mavi Marmara flotilla, Israel realized this would be perceived by some in the region as weakness, but decided a wider array of factors had to be weighed in, a government source said Saturday.

    The source was responding to a comment carried by the Turkish Anadolu news agency on Saturday by Alireza Bikedeli, Iran’s ambassador to Ankara, saying that “in the past three years, Turkey, with its constant resistance, showed us we can take what we want to take from Israel.” The source said that in government meetings over the last few years dealing with whether to apologize to Turkey for the May 2010 incident, the question of how an apology would be perceived in the region was always taken into consideration.

    But, the official said, there was “a wide array” of other factors to think about as well.

    “If the decision leads to a thawing of relations with Turkey, then the Iranians won’t be happy,” the official added.

    Meanwhile, US Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Turkey Saturday night on the first stop of a six-country tour that will take him to Jerusalem and Ramallah on Sunday through Tuesday.

    The Turkish media said that the visit to Istanbul, Kerry’s second visit to Turkey in two months, is coming amid expectations he will offer Turkey a role in the Middle East diplomatic process.

    State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said at a press briefing last week that Kerry would meet Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and discuss the “complex issues surrounding Middle East peace.”

    In the past, she said, they have discussed Fatah-Hamas reconciliation, “and our insistence that Quartet principles need to be abided by if this is going to serve the cause of peace.”

    While not directly referring to Erdogan’s announced intention to visit the Gaza Strip this month, Nuland said that in the past the US has urged senior Turkish officials that any contact with Hamas be “in service to the greater issue of stability and peace, and that the fundamental underlying tenets of the Quartet principles be reiterated as the necessary precondition.” The Quartet principles are that Hamas recognize Israel, forswear terrorism and accept previous Israeli-Palestinian agreements.

    The prospect of Erdogan indeed going ahead with a trip to Gaza, which he has threatened to do a number of times in the past, seemed to fade somewhat with the announcement that he will be meeting US President Barack Obama in the White House on May 16. The US has in the past urged Erdogan to refrain from making that trip, arguing it would undercut Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and strengthen Hamas.

    Asked whether Turkey could play a role in the Israeli-Palestinian diplomatic process, something Ankara has expressed an interest in doing, Nuland said Turkey certainly “has significant influence with the Palestinians. It has the ability to encourage Palestinians of all stripes to accept Quartet principles and move forward on that basis.”

    One Israeli official said that Turkey is one of any number of international actors – the EU, the French, British, Russians and the UN – which would like to have a larger role in the diplomatic process. “We are ready for countries to play a positive role in the peace process, the official said, adding that to do so these countries “have to have the confidence of both sides.”

    via Iran taking lessons from Turkey in combating Israel | JPost | Israel News.

  • Obama to Host Leaders from Turkey, Jordan, Gulf States

    Obama to Host Leaders from Turkey, Jordan, Gulf States

    Dan Robinson

    April 05, 2013

    WHITE HOUSE —

    President Barack Obama plans some intense Mideast diplomacy this month and next, welcoming leaders of Turkey, Jordan and two Gulf states for Oval Office talks on Syria and broader developments in the Mideast.

    The White House said President Obama will welcome Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for talks on May 16.

    The two men established a close personal and working relationship in Obama’s first term, which has carried over into Obama’s second term as they grapple with the situation in Syria, among other issues.

    At the end of his Mideast trip last month, Obama brokered an easing of tensions between Israel and Turkey, bringing the Turkish leader and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into a phone conversation to discuss differences.

    The White House said talks will include Syria and counterterrorism cooperation, and underscore the strategic relationship between the U.S. and Turkey as NATO allies.

    King Abdullah of Jordan, who hosted President Obama in Amman last month, will come to the White House April 26.

    In their talks in Jordan, the two leaders discussed the sharply increased refugee flows from Syria, with Obama announcing he would ask Congress for $200 million in additional aid for Jordan.

    The White House said the leaders will continue consultations on Syria, and Jordan’s political and economic reforms, which Obama praised during his visit to Amman.

    Obama will also meet this month with the Emir of Qatar, Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan of the United Arab Emirates.

    Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, along with Saudi Arabia, are thought to be providing light weapons and other assistance to Syrian rebels fighting to oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

    Asked if the visits are part of efforts to coordinate assistance to Syrian opposition forces, White House press secretary Jay Carney avoided an answer, keeping to the general description provided of the purpose of the visits.

    “There are obviously a number of issues for these leaders and the president to discuss, including Syria, including his recent visit to Jordan, Israel and the Palestinian territories, including the broader developments in the Arab Spring so he looks forward to these visits and they reflect his commitment and interest in the region and in our policies toward the region,” Carney said.

    Syria issued a warning to Jordan this week after U.S. and Western officials were quoted saying Jordan is allowing its territory to be used for training Syrian rebels.

    Syria will be a key issue in talks Secretary of State John Kerry is having this weekend in Ankara before he returns to Israel for further consultations there.

    White House talks last year between President Obama and the United Arab Emirates leader also focused on concerns about Iran’s nuclear program.

    via Obama to Host Leaders from Turkey, Jordan, Gulf States.

  • Turkey’s unsustainable politics in Middle East

    Turkey’s unsustainable politics in Middle East

    Ramzy Baroud

    Confused may be an appropriate term to describe Turkey’s current foreign policy in the Middle East and Israel in particular. The source of that confusion — aside from the appalling violence in Syria and earlier in Libya — is Turkey’s own range of mistakes.

     

    The Turkish government’s inconsistency regarding Israel highlights earlier discrepancy in other political contexts. There was a time when Turkey’s top foreign policy priority included reaching out diplomatically to Arab and Muslim countries. Then, we spoke of a paradigm shift, whereby Istanbul was repositioning its political center, reflecting perhaps economic necessity, but also cultural shifts within its own society. It seemed that the East versus West debate was skillfully being resolved by politicians of the Justice and Development Party (AKP).

    The ‘Zero Problems’ policy

    Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, along with Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, appeared to have obtained a magical non-confrontational approach to Turkey’s historic political alignment. “The Zero Problems” policy allowed Turkey to brand itself as a bridge between two worlds. The country’s economic growth and strategic import to various geopolitical spheres allowed it to escape whatever price was meted out by Washington and its European allies as a reprimand for its bold political moves — including Erdogan’s unprecedented challenge of Israel.
    Indeed, there was a link between the growing influence of Turkey among Arab and Islamic countries and Turkey’s challenge to Israel’s violent behavior in Palestine and Lebanon, and its rants against Syria and Iran. Turkey’s return to its political roots was unmistakable, yet interestingly, it was not met by too strong an American response. Washington couldn’t simply isolate Istanbul and the latter shrewdly advanced its own power and influence with that knowledge in mind. Even the bizarre anti-Turkish statements by Israeli officials sounded more like incoherent rants than actual foreign policy.

    Israel’s clout in the region

    Political arrogance and U.S.-financed military strength are two pillars by which Israel maintains its clout in the region. The first was childishly applied when the then Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister, Danny Ayalon, publicly snubbed Turkey’s Ambassador, Ahmet Oguz Celikkol, in January 2010 by placing him on a lower sofa. He then asked Israeli journalists to take note of the insult. The second came in May 2010 when Israeli commandos descended on the Turkish ship Mavi Marmara, carrying humanitarian aid to Gaza, and killed nine Turkish citizens in cold blood.

    “Idiocracy” is how Israeli columnist Uri Avnery described Israel’s behavior toward Turkey, which was once one of Israel’s most vital allies. But idiocy has little to do with it and Turkey knew that well. Israel wished to send strong messages to the Turks, that its strategic and political maneuvering was of no use here and that Israel would continue to reign supreme in the face of Erdogan’s ambitious policies. The real idiocy was Israel’s miscalculations, which failed to take into account that such behavior could only speed up Turkey’s political transformation. The fact that the U.S. was losing its once unchallenged grip over the fate of the Middle East had also contributed to Turkey’s sudden rise as a country with far-reaching ties and long-term political vision.

    Turkey’s new political priorities

    Erdogan quickly rose to prominence. His responses to Israel’s provocations, and to what was essentially a declaration of war, came in the form of strong words and measured actions. He conditioned any rapprochement with Israel on a clear apology over its transgressions, compensations to the victims and the families of the dead, and ending the siege on Gaza. The last condition further highlighted Turkey’s new political priorities.

    As far as Turkey’s regional ascendency was concerned, it mattered little whether Israel apologized. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was losing favor, even with his own allies in Washington. And unlike Washington, under the thumb of the pro-Israeli lobby, Istanbul was a country with independent foreign policy.

    The Turkish government’s inconsistency regarding Israel highlights earlier discrepancy in other political contexts. There was a time when Turkey’s top foreign policy priority included reaching out diplomatically to Arab and Muslim countries

     

    Ramzy Baroud

     

    When AKP triumphed in Turkey’s elections in June 2011, the so-called Arab Spring was still in its early stages. Then, much hope was placed on the rise of popular movements in countries that have been disfigured by Arab dictators and their Western benefactors. Not only did the ruling party disregard the fact that Turkey had taken part in the old political structure in the Middle East, it also escaped them that Turkey was an important member of NATO which unleashed a terrible war on Libya on March 19, deliberately misinterpreting U.N. Security Council Resolution 1973. Yes, Turkey had resisted the war option at first, but it was quick to forgive and forget and eventually recognized and supported its political outcome. Thanks to the war, Libya is now in a permanent state of bedlam.

    Victory Speech

    Erdogan’s victory speech in June 2011 attempted to paint a new picture of reality regarding future prospects and Turkey’s proposed role in all of this. “I greet with affection the peoples of Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, Amman, Cairo, Tunis, Sarajevo, Skopje, Baku, Nicosia and all other friends and brother peoples who are following the news out of Turkey with great excitement,” Erdogan said. “Today, the Middle East, the Caucasus and the Balkans have won as much as Turkey.”

    But that “win” was short-lived. The euphoria of change created many blind spots, one of which is that conflicts of sectarian and ethnic nature — as in Syria — don’t get resolved overnight; that foreign military intervention, direct or by proxy, can only espouse protracted conflict. Indeed, it was in Syria that Turkey’s vision truly fumbled. It was obvious that many were salivating over the outcome of a Syrian war between a brutal regime and a self-serving, divided opposition, each faction espousing one foreign agenda or another. Suddenly, Turkey’s regional and global ambitions of justice and morality grew ever more provisional because of fear of chaos spilling over into its border areas, the tragic rise of the number of Syrian refugees at Turkey’s borders and the fear of a strong Kurdish presence innorthern Syria.

    Erdogan: ‘Israel a terrorist state’

    Not even capable Turkish politicians could hide the confusion in which they found themselves. Responding to Israel’s bombing of Gaza last November, which killed and wounded hundreds of Palestinians, Erdogan described Israel as a “terrorist state.” “Those who turn a blind eye to discrimination toward Muslims in their own countries, are also closing their eyes to the savage massacre of innocent children in Gaza. … Therefore, I say Israel is a terrorist state.”

    But even then, discussions were under way regarding the text of an Israeli apology to Turkey over the Mavi Marmara attack. That apology had finally arrived as an undeserved gift to U.S. President Barack Obama, who visited Israel in March with a message of total support for Israel.

    “In light of Israel’s investigation into the incident which pointed to a number of operational mistakes, the prime minister expressed Israel’s apology to the Turkish people for any mistakes that might have led to the loss of life or injury and agreed to conclude an agreement on compensation/non-liability,” Netanyahu’s apology read. No commitment regarding Gaza was made. Erdogan’s office responded: “Erdogan told Benjamin Netanyahu that he valued the centuries-long strong friendship and cooperation between the Turkish and Jewish nations.” According to Netanyahu, the apology over the “operational mistakes” had everything to do with the need to share intelligence over Syria between both of the countries’ militaries. To balance out Turkey’s hurried retreat to its old political foreign policy, Erdogan is reportedly planning to visit Gaza in April.

    “We will take on a more effective role. We will call, as we have, for rights in our region, for justice, for the rule of law, for freedom and democracy,” were the resounding words of Erdogan following his party’s elections victory last year.
    It is likely that Istanbul will try to maintain a balanced position, but, as Erdogan himself knows, in issues of morality and justice, middle stances are simply untenable.

     

    _____________

    Palestinian-American journalist, author, editor, Ramzy Baroud (www.ramzybaroud.net) taught Mass Communication at Australia’s Curtin University of Technology, and is Editor-in-Chief of the Palestine Chronicle. Baroud’s work has been published in hundreds of newspapers and journals worldwide and his books “His books “Searching Jenin: Eyewitness Accounts of the Israeli Invasion” and “The Second Palestinian Intifada: A Chronicle of a People’s Struggle” have received international recognition. Baroud’s third book, “My Father Was a Freedom Fighter: Gaza’s Untold Story” narrates the story of the life of his family, used as a representation of millions of Palestinians in Diaspora, starting in the early 1940’s until the present time.

  • Lessons in Extended Deterrence: Why the Status of Turkish F-16s Doesn’t Matter | Turkey Wonk: Nuclear and Political Musings in Turkey and Beyond

    Lessons in Extended Deterrence: Why the Status of Turkish F-16s Doesn’t Matter | Turkey Wonk: Nuclear and Political Musings in Turkey and Beyond

    Kuzey Kore gerilimi öncesinde Türkiye’deki nükleer silahlar ve F16’ların durumu

    Lessons in Extended Deterrence: Why the Status of Turkish F-16s Doesn’t Matter

    Posted on April 3, 2013 by aaronstein1

    DF-ST-87-12392

    In response to North Korea’s bellicose threats, the United States has been parading a bevy of nuclear dual capable aircraft near the Korean peninsula. Both the B-52 and the B-2 have a nuclear role and would, in the event of a nuclear conflict, likely use air launched nuclear cruise missiles against targets in North Korea. The F-22, which is on “static display” in South Korea, would, according to the aviationist, “probably escort the big bombers during the opening stages of an eventual campaign (after the rain of cruise missiles that would wipe out most of North Korea’s air defenses…), their role could not be limited to providing air superiority (to be easily and quickly achieved considered the status of the geriatric North Korean Air Force and its obsolete Migs): as demonstrated in last year’s Exercise Chimichanga,the F-22 has the ability to play a dual role in the same mission: HVAAE (High Value Air Asset Escort) and air-to-surface.”

    While the actual threat of conflict on the Korean peninsula is low, the American show of force sheds lights on the lengths Washington will go to demonstrate its commitment to use nuclear weapons in defense of an ally covered by its nuclear umbrella. Washington’s actions, as has been noted by many others, is a show force meant to demonstrate its commitment to extended deterrence. In other words, Washington is signaling its readiness to push the button. (It is also trying to deter an ROK nuclear weapons program, but I am not really going to talk about that – I will leave that for better informed Korean experts.)

    Anyways, the signaling is important for the Turkish leadership in Ankara. Turkey, as regular readers of the blog are well aware, is home to ~65 American nuclear weapons. [From an EDAM issue brief I wrote about Turkey and Tactical Nuclear Weapons] According to Robert Norris and Hans Kristensen, 50 bombs are slated for delivery by U.S. aircraft, but do to basing restrictions American dual capable aircraft (DCA) are not stationed permanently in Turkey. If the order were given for the release of NATO nuclear weapons, American aircraft would first have to be flown to Incirlik from another European base and armed before finally flying on to their targets. The other bombs are reserved for delivery by Turkish dual capable F-16s. However, there are conflicting reports about the status of Turkey’s nuclear fighter-bombers. According to General Ergin Celasin (ret.), the former Commander of the Turkish Air Force, “The Turkish air force’s role in NATO’s nuclear contingency plans came to an end with the withdrawal of nuclear weapons in the 1990s from the Air Force units that were deployed in several air bases in Turkey.”

    However, Norris and Kristensen cite Pentagon sources who say that Turkey’s current fleet of nuclear capable F-16s are receiving a “stop gap” modification to carry the B-61-12. Reports indicate that Turkey’s nuclear capable combat aircraft no longer train for nuclear missions. In the past, the air force’s dual capable aircraft trained for nuclear missions and were certified to carry out nuclear strikes. Turkish aircraft reportedly now only train as non-nuclear escort aircraft for NATO’s nuclear fighter wings. However, NATO has made clear that it does not foresee any scenario that would require the rapid use of nuclear weapons, which raises a number of unanswered questions about Turkey’s current nuclear posture. In any future scenario that might call for the use of nuclear weapons, the return of American DCAs and the re-certification of Turkish DCAs would likely be an important signal to a potential adversary.* [snip]

    In any case, the Alliance, should the need arise, has ample time to move American aircraft into Turkey. The move, perhaps combined with a very public crash course for Turkish pilots to drop the Bomb, would be a very powerful signal to a potential adversary. Or, in other words, extended deterrence.

    Hence, I do not see a real difference in Turkey’s post-Cold War thinking about nuclear weapons, even though the threat of a nuclear attack has diminished tremendously since the collapse of the Soviet Union. In short, Turkey continues to value nuclear weapons because of the widespread belief that they are necessary to deter regional foes like Iran and Syria. (It is also worth nothing, that both of these countries are not covered by a US negative security assurance.)

    Moreover, I suspect that there is a small group in the Turkish Armed Forces that are looking at the American show of force in Korea with satisfaction. Ankara, for a number of very good reasons, is perpetually wary of the American security commitment. Turkey, therefore, sees the forward deployment of nuclear weapons as an important symbol of Alliance solidarity and as a symbol of the US commitment to come to Turkish defense. This belief, however, is predicated on the notion that the bombs will actually be used (debatable actually), should the need arise.

    The American show of force, therefore, should not solely be interpreted in Turkey as the US commitment to ROK security. In fact, the American moves are also aimed at the leadership in Ankara. And I can guarantee that they are paying attention.

    via Lessons in Extended Deterrence: Why the Status of Turkish F-16s Doesn’t Matter | Turkey Wonk: Nuclear and Political Musings in Turkey and Beyond.