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Geopolitical Diary: How Far Will the Caucasus Conflict Go?

Stratfor.com
August 28, 2008

Russian President Dmitri Medvedev flew to
Tajikistan on Wednesday for a summit with China
and four Central Asian countries. The countries
are members of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization, which meets regularly. This meeting
had been on the schedule for while and has no
significance, save that it brings the Russians
into contact with four former members of the
Soviet Union and as important China.

Each of the Central Asian countries is obviously
trying to measure Russia’s long-term intentions.
The issue will not be Georgia, but what Georgia
means to them. In other words, how far does
Russia intend to go in reasserting its sphere of
influence? Medvedev will give suitable
reassurances, but the Russian empire and Soviet
Union both conquered this area in the past.
Retaking it is possible. That means that the four
Central Asian countries will be trying very hard
to retain their independence without irritating
the Russians. For them, this will be a careful meeting.

Of greater interest to the world is China’s view
of the situation. Again, China has no interest in
Georgia. It does have to have quiet delight over
a confrontation between the United States and the
Russians. The more these two countries are
worried about each other, the less either and
particularly the United States can worry about
the Chinese. For China, a U.S.-Islamic
confrontation coupled with a U.S.-Russian
confrontation is just what the doctor ordered.
Certainly the least problem Washington will have
is whether the yuan floats and, hoping for
cooperation with China, the United States will
pull its punches on other issues. That means that
the Chinese will express sympathy to all parties
and take part in nothing. There is no current
threat to Central Asia, so they have no problems
with the Russians. If one emerges, they can talk.

In the meantime, in the main crisis, Russian
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin called attention to
the Black Sea as a potential flash point in the
confrontation between Russia and the West. He
warned that there could be direct confrontations
between Russian and NATO ships should NATO or its
member nations increase their presence there.
According to NATO there are currently four NATO
ships in the Black Sea for a previously scheduled
exercise called Active Endeavor. Putin explicitly
warned, however, that there could be additional
vessels belonging to NATO countries in the Black
Sea that are not under NATO command.

It is hard to get ships into the Black Sea
unnoticed. The ships have to pass through the
Bosporus, a fairly narrow strait in Turkey, and
it is possible to sit in cafes watching the ships
sail by. Putting a task force into the Black Sea,
even at night, would be noticed, and the Russians
would certainly know the ships are there.

As a complicating factor, there is the Montreaux
Convention, a treaty that limits access to the
Black Sea by warships. The deputy chief of the
Russian general staff very carefully invoked the
Montreaux Convention, pointing out that Turkey,
the controlling country, must be notified 15 days
in advance of any transit of the Bosporus, that
warships can’t remain in the Black Sea for more
than 21 days and that only a limited number of
warships were permitted there at any one time.
The Russians have been reaching out in multiple
diplomatic channels to the Turks to make sure
that they are prepared to play their role in
upholding the convention. The Turkish position on
the current crisis is not clear, but becoming
crucial; both the United States and Russia are
working on Turkey, which is not a position Turkey
cares to be in at the moment. Turkey wants this crisis to go away.

It is not going away. With the Russians holding
position in Georgia, it is now clear that the
West will not easily back down. The Russians
certainly aren’t going to back down. The next
move is NATO’s, but the alliance is incapable of
moving, since there is no consensus. Therefore,
the next move is for Washington to lead another
coalition of the willing. It is coming down to a
simple question. Does the United States have the
appetite for another military confrontation
(short of war, we would think) in which case it
will use its remaining asset, the U.S. Navy, to
sail into the Black Sea? If it does this, will it
stay awhile and then leave or establish a
permanent presence (ignoring the Montreaux
Convention) in support of Ukraine and Georgia,
with its only real military option being
blockade? If this happens, will the Russians live
with it, will they increase their own naval, air
and land based anti-ship missile capabilities in
the region, or will they increase pr essure
elsewhere, in Ukraine or the Baltics?

In short, how far does this go?

August 28, 2008
Obama Wins Nomination; Biden and Bill Clinton Rally Party

Brendan Smialowski for The New York Times

Senator Barack Obama joined Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. on stage on Wednesday. More Photos >

DENVER — Barack Hussein Obama, a freshman senator who defeated the first family of Democratic Party politics with a call for a fundamentally new course in politics, was nominated by his party today to be the 44th president of the United States.

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Working the Convention Crowds

Related

Man in the News: A Consistent Yet Elusive Nominee (August 28, 2008)

News Analysis: For Obama, a Challenge to Clarify His Message (August 27, 2008)

Clinton Rallies Her Troops to Fight for Obama (August 27, 2008)

The unanimous vote made Mr. Obama the first African-American to become a major party nominee for president. It brought to an end an often-bitter, two-year political struggle for the nomination with Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, who, standing on a packed convention floor electric with anticipation, moved to halt the roll call in progress so that the convention could nominate Mr. Obama by acclamation. That it did with a succession of loud roars, followed by a swirl of dancing, embracing, high-fiving and chants of “Yes, we can.”

In an effort to fully close out the lingering animosity from the primary season, former President Bill Clinton, in a speech that had been anxiously awaited by Mr. Obama’s aides given the prickly relations between the two men, offered an enthusiastic and unstinting endorsement of Mr. Obama’s credentials to be president. His message, like the messenger, was greeted rapturously in the hall.

Mr. Clinton asserted, as Mrs. Clinton had when she spoke to the convention on Tuesday night, that the nation needed to elect a Democrat to restore the damage he said President Bush had done to the country, at home and around the world.

“Barack Obama is ready to lead America and restore American leadership in the world.” Mr. Clinton said. “Ready to preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States. Barack Obama is ready to be president of the United States.”

Mr. Clinton was followed by Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, Mr. Obama’s choice for vice president, who used his speech to set out the Democratic case against the Republican opponent, Senator John McCain.

“Our country is less secure and more isolated than in any time in recent history,” Mr. Biden said. “The Bush-McCain foreign policy has dug us into a few deep holes with very few friends to help us climb out.”

“These times require more than a good soldier,” Mr. Biden said. They require a wise leader.”

In an address that was at turns personal, emotional and barbed, he said, “Today the American dream is slipping away.”

“John McCain doesn’t seem to get it,” Mr. Biden said. Barack Obama gets it.

To the delight of the crowd, at the conclusion of his address Mr. Biden was joined on stage by Mr. Obama, who made a point to thank Mr. Clinton — with whom he has had a prickly relationship — for his leadership as president. The historic nature of the moment quickly gave way to the political imperatives confronting Mr. Obama, who arrived here in the afternoon and is to accept the nomination Thursday night before a crowd of 75,000 people in a football stadium. After days in which the convention often seemed less about Mr. Obama than about the two families that have dominated Democratic politics for nearly a half-century, the Kennedys and the Clintons, he still faced a need to convince voters that he has concrete solutions to their economic anxieties and to rally his party against the reinvigorated candidacy of Mr. McCain.

The roll-call vote took place in the late afternoon — the first time in at least 50 years that Democrats have not scheduled their roll call on prime-time television — as Democrats sought to avoid drawing attention to the lingering resentments between Clinton and Obama delegates. Yet the historic nature of the vote escaped no one, and sent a charge through the Pepsi Center as a procession of state delegations cast their votes and the hall, slightly empty at the beginning of the vote, became shoulder-to-shoulder with Democrats eager to witness this moment.

As planned, it fell to Mrs. Clinton to put Mr. Obama over the top. He was declared the party’s nominee at 4:47 p.m. Mountain Time after Mrs. Clinton, in a light blue suit standing out in a crowd that included almost every elected New York official, moved that the roll call be suspended and that Mr. Obama by declared the party’s nominee by acclamation. The vote was timed to conclude during the network evening news broadcasts.

“With eyes firmly fixed on the future in the spirit of unity, with the goal of victory, with faith in our party and country, let’s declare together in one voice, right here and right now, that Barack Obama is our candidate and he will be our president,” Mrs. Clinton said.

“I move that Senator Barack Obama of Illinois be selected by this convention by acclamation as the nominee of the Democratic Party for president of the United States,” she said.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi, standing at the lectern, asked for a second and was greeted by a roar of voices. A louder roar came from the crowd when she asked for support of the motion.

When the voting was cut off, Mr. Obama had received 1,549 votes, compared with 231 for Mrs. Clinton.

The hall pulsed when Mr. Clinton strode onto the stage for a performance that became a reminder of why Democrats had considered him a politician with once in a generation skills. There were no signs that screamed “Clinton,” but Democrats waved American flags in quick tempo to welcome him to the stage. Again and again, Mr. Clinton tried to quiet the crowd; they ignored him.

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“You all sit down: We’ve got to get on with the show!” he said as the applause lingered on for more than three minutes and his wife watched from the floor.

Without mentioning Mr. McCain by name, he offered a sharp denunciation of him and Republicans as he made the case for Mr. Obama.

“The Republicans will nominate a good man who served our country heroically and suffered terribly in Vietnam,” he said, “He loves our country every bit as much as we all do. As a senator, he has shown his independence on several issues. But on the two great questions of this election, how to rebuild the American Dream and how to restore America’s leadership in the world, he still embraces the extreme philosophy which has defined his party for more than 25 years.”

“They actually want us to reward them for the last eight years by giving them four more,” he said. “Let’s send them a message that will echo from the Rockies all across America: Thanks, but no thanks.”

For Mr. Obama, the nomination — seized from Mrs. Clinton, who just one year ago was viewed as the obvious favorite to win the nomination especially against an opponent with a scant political resume — was a remarkable achievement in what has been a remarkable ascendance. It was less than four years ago that Mr. Obama, coming off of serving seven years as an Illinois state senator, became a member of the United States Senate. He is 47 years old, the son of a white mother from Kansas and a black father from Kenya.

Mr. Obama’s nomination came 120 years after Frederick Douglass became the first African-American to have his name entered in nomination at a major party convention. Douglass received one vote at the Republican convention in Chicago in 1888; Senator Benjamin Harrison of Indiana went on to win the White House that year.

Making the moment even more striking was the historical nature of Mrs. Clinton’s candidacy. She was the third woman whose name has been entered as a candidate for president at a major party convention. As she moved to end the roll-call vote, some women in the hall could be seen wiping tears from their eyes.

The presidential candidate is typically an absent figure during the first few days of a convention. In this case, Mr. Obama’s vacuum was filled by the Clintons and the tribute paid to the party to Mr. Kennedy on Monday night. What has taken place over the past two days might have politically necessary and even helpful, but it did not go far in helping Mr. Obama achieve some of the critical goals of this convention.

As a result, he is under considerable pressure Thursday night to use this speech in an ambitious setting, a football stadium, to present a fuller picture of himself, Americans who might have doubts about whether he is ready to be president, and begin presenting a picture of what he would do in the White House. For Mr. Obama, the final appearance is not the coda to a convention; in many ways, it may prove to be his entire convention.

Mr. Obama, who arrived in Denver just after 3 p.m., was at his hotel in downtown Denver with his wife and daughters when he learned that he had been nominated by acclamation.

Kitty Bennett, John Broder and Janet Elder contributed reporting.

August 28, 2008
This should be sent to all New World Order supporters-Viva Novus Ordo Seclorum, Viva Obama

From: Sam Dogan [mailto:ssdogan@msn.com]
Subject: this should be sent to all obama voters
Date: Sun, 24 Aug 2008 15:59:41 +0000
Beware Charismatic Men Who Preach ‘Change’

Editor, Times-Dispatch:

Each year I get to celebrate Independence Day twice. On June 30 I celebrate my independence day and on July 4 I celebrate America’s. This year is special, because it marks the40th anniversary of my independence.

On June 30, 1968, I escaped Communist Cuba and a few months later I was in the United Statesto stay. That I happened to arrive in Richmondon Thanksgiving Day is just part of the story, but I digress.

I’ve thought a lot about the anniversary this year. The election-year rhetoric has made me think a lot about Cubaand what transpired there. In the late 1950s, most Cubansthought Cubaneeded a change, and they were right. So when a young leader came along, every Cuban was at least receptive.

When the young leader spoke eloquently and passionately and denounced the old system, the press fell in love w ith him. They never questioned who his friends were or what he really believed in. When he said he would help the farmers and the poor and bring free medical care and education to all, everyone followed. When he said he would bring justice and equality to all, everyone said ‘Praise the Lord.’ And when the young leader said, ‘I will be for change and I’ll bring you change,’ everyone yelled, ‘Viva Fidel!’

But nobody asked about the change, so by the time the executioner’s guns went silent the people’s guns had been taken away. By the time everyone was equal, they were equally poor, hungry, and oppressed. By the time everyone received their free education it was worth nothing. By the time the press noticed, it was too late, because they were now working for him. By the time the change was finally implemented Cubahad been knocked down a couple of notches to Third-World status. By the time the change was over more than a milli on people had taken to boats, rafts, and inner tubes. You can call those who made it to shore anywhere else in the world the most fortunate Cubans. And now I’m back to the beginning of my story.

Luckily, we would never fall in Americafor a young leader who promised change , without asking what change? And most important How will you carry it out? What will it cost America?
Would we?

Sharon

——————-

Subject: this should be sent to all obama voters

Aslinda baslik soyle atilmaliydi:

“This should be sent to all New World Order supporters”

veyahut da acikca,

“Viva Novus Ordo Seclorum, Viva Obama”

da denilebilirdi…

Novus Ordo Seclorum tanimini, Yeni Caga Acilim olarak tanimlamaya calisacak, kuresel emperyalizme kulp bulmaya calisacak birileri cikarsa karsiniza, o zaman da, Zeitgeist’de anlatilanlarin dogru oldugunu kabul etmek zorunda kaldiklarini soyleyebilirsiniz.

Saygilar,

Gusan Yedic

August 28, 2008
Turkish man leaving U.S. gets probation for sexual assault

By ADAM BENSON,

BRISTOL – A Turkish national who allegedly fondled a developmentally disabled woman last month was given two weeks of probation Wednesday because he’s set to leave the country permanently Sept. 15.Umit Celik’s circumstance put Judge Joseph W. Doherty in an admittedly awkward position, but he was firm with the 27-year-old man after handing down the sentence.

Celik was charged with fourth-degree sexual assault.
“If there is a violation of these conditions, you’ll be here and stand trial, even if it takes 18 months to start your trial,” Doherty said.

Prosecutors said Celik, who was in the U.S. on a four-month work visa working as an ice cream truck driver, reportedly approached a woman walking in her Bristol neighborhood on July 9.

Celik offered her free ice cream and began complimenting her appearance before asking the 28-year-old woman if she’d help teach him English.

Senior Assistant State’s Attorney Christian Watson said Celik “talked” the woman into his truck, where he offered her his name and phone number.

He then parked the vehicle at a dead end and began caressing the woman’s thighs and “massaging” her breasts, Watson said.

Celik later told police he put his hand on the woman’s leg and held her hand, but he didn’t realize the contact was inappropriate.

He said through a translator his behavior was “customary” in Turkey.

Matt Dyer, Celik’s public defender, said the man had no plans to return to the United States when his visa was up and has been cooperative.

Watson said given the nature of the charges, putting Celik through an accelerated rehabiliation program wasn’t the right course of action.

“I don’t think that from the state’s perspective, this is appropriate for acclerated rehabilitation,” he said.
But Doherty said placing the man on a prolonged period of probation while he was living abroad was “ineffectual.”
However, Doherty said, Celik can’t take any job that puts him into direct contact with women or children for as long as he remains in the country.

Source : ©The Bristol Press 2008

August 28, 2008
Debut of ‘Istanbul: The City of the Sultans’ in New York

Acclaimed Turkish designer Nedret Taciroglu will make her much-anticipated USA debut during New York’s Couture Fashion Week in September 2008 at the Westin Times Square in the heart of the Big Apple. Ms. Taciroglu will present her latest collection entitled “Istanbul: The City of the Sultans.”The inspiration for her Nedret Taciroglu’s latest collection is the highly esteemed and important “Sultans’ Signatures.” The Sultans’ Signatures were not created by the Sultans themselves, but by calligraphers during the Ottoman Empire.

Each one is distinctive and reflects the ruler’s power through intricate designs featuring both letters and patterns. In order to introduce the Sultans’ Signatures to the world, Mrs. Taciroglu blended history with modernism over a period of five months to produce a 30-piece collection.

She used the signatures of Mehmet the Conqueror and Suleyman the Magnificent, among others. The designs also feature Swarovski crystals, chiffon and draping as well as the use of red and beige emphasizing the glory of the Ottomans.

Ms. Taciroglu’s creations are reminiscent of clothes worn during the Ottoman Empire, which lasted for 600 years and acted as an important geographical, cultural, political and social bridge between the East and the West. Her collections reflect the historical heritage left by the Ottoman Empire to modern day Turkey.

After earning a degree in interior design at Mimar Sinan University in Istanbul, Nedret Taciroglu entered the fashion industry as a model in 1976, and few years later founded Nedo Leather, where she worked designing, producing and exporting fine leather garments to clients in Paris, New York, Dallas and Houston.

Her loyal clientele numbers in the thousands around the world and she was proud to create an 18-piece collection for former First Lady Nancy Reagan.

In early 2002, with the encouragement of many friends in the fashion business, Ms. Taciroglu launched Nedo Collection, which quickly came to be appreciated by international buyers for its special fabrics and accessories.

She is the only Turkish designer to stage her own show in Milan for three consecutive years, where she received rave reviews.

Nedo Collection is targeted at the elegant, confident, well-traveled and successful woman. Fabrics are predominantly fine all-natural wools, cottons and silks made in Turkey.

Nedo Weekend is a complimentary line of casual wear consisting of linen suits, sporty shorts, bottoms, and jeans with a target customer that appreciates comfortable and elegant clothes for less formal occasions. Ms. Taciroglu also designs home accessories.

Couture Fashion Week is a multi-day event showcasing couture and luxury fashion. It also includes exhibits of luxury brands and fine art as well as world-class entertainment and receptions.

The event is held in top venues in New York City, Palm Beach, Florida and otherselected cities and is attended by upscale consumers, invited VIPs, the press and high-end store buyers. Couture Fashion Week offers unique branding opportunities for luxury products and services.

Couture Fashion Week

Source :

August 27, 2008
From Skaneateles to Istanbul

Forty-nine years ago, it’s possible no one involved in this story thought a relationship spanning the Atlantic would still be thriving.

But friendship can span time and, as is this case, continents.

The year was 1959, and Ann German Higbee was an American Field Service student from Skaneateles living with the Turkoglu family in Istanbul, Turkey. She spent the summer living with the family – a mother, father, older brother and sister, Selma.

“While I didn’t choose (to go to Turkey), I was thrilled to be in the first group of AFSer’s to Turkey, truly a little known country in 1959, a country that literally joins Asia and Europe,” Higbee said. “(It was) a place totally foreign to almost anything I knew (or) had heard of at that point in my life.”
Little would foreshadow the story that unfolded after her time in Istanbul.

In 1962, Selma Turkoglu Ertuna was awarded a Rotary Club international scholarship to come to the United States as an exchange student to Keuka College. Selma said while she was a student here, she would spend weekends and vacations with Higbee and her family.

There was love in the air when Selma was on her way back to college, though, and she met a man by the name Ozer Ertuna.

“I met Ozer on the boat on my way to Keuka College,” she said. “In 1964 we got married. I joined him in Ithaca when he was working for his PhD degree in Cornell University.”

Now, 49 years later, Ozer and Selma have returned to the U.S. to rekindle long-time friendships and to visit with their exchange relatives. Over the years, the families have been able to visit each other’s homes.

Like Higbee and Selman, Ozer, too, was an AFS exchange student. He had come to the states 51 years ago as a student in Wells, Minn., for a year-long trip.

“Our current visit to USA is a nostalgic trip to visit our friends. We started our trip visiting Ann and Jim,” Selma said. “We had a wonderful time with them in Skaneateles meeting the family and their nice friends. We enjoyed every moment of our stay.”

Following their stay in Skaneateles, Selma and Ozer headed to Ithaca to visit with Ozer’s professors at Cornell University, then they took a flight to Minnesota to visit Wayne Unke and his family. Unke was Ozer’s math teacher and coach during his exchange.

The couple’s trip also includes a drive to Grinnell College in Iowa where their grandson is studying. Like his grandparents, the Ertuna’s grandson came to the U.S. as an exchange student to Kansas through AFS.

“We are happy that our grandson is studying in the USA. He is having the similar experiences that we have had,” Selma said. “We are sure that this opportunity will broaden his vision of the world.”
Higbee and the Ertunas each have a deep understanding of the importance of organizations like Rotary and AFS. They enable people to understand one another despite cultural differences.
“AFS was and is an incredibly powerful organization that has been bringing people from around the world since post WWII. Founded by Stephen Galatti, an ambulance driver during the war, its vision has always been to join people from all points on the globe into a harmony based on living side-by-side … coming to understand each other in their respective cultures,” Higbee said. “It does not have a political agenda. Its only agenda is to build bonds of friendship and understanding that may contribute to world peace.”

According to Selma, the organizations need increased support in order to expand their activities. The Ertunas would also like to see new organizations that promote friendship among people.
“It is wonderful to have so close relations with friends in a distant part of the world,” Selma said. “If more people had the same experience we are sure that we would have a better world. And, we hope more people will have similar experience.”

Ozer said the couple’s journey across the U.S. will come to a end on Sept. 5 when they fly to Turkey. Once they reach their destination, Istanbul, Ozer will resume teaching at Okan University.

“It was pure joy to have Selma and Ozer back with us in Skaneateles and to share the pleasure of (re)igniting memories that will, hopefully, contribute to building even stronger bonds between our families/countries as we head into yet a new generation of friendship,” Higbee said.

Source :

August 27, 2008