Category: America

Are Turkey And Armenia About To Normalize Relations?

In September, Turkish President Abdullah Gul (left) accepted Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian’s invitation to attend a soccer match between their countries.

April 02, 2009

There are increasing hints that Turkey and Armenia could soon announce a deal reopening their border — which has been closed since 1993 — and restoring diplomatic relations.

Regional analyst Richard Giragosian, director of the Yerevan-based Armenian Center for National and International Studies, discusses the possibilities of such a deal with RFE/RL correspondent Charles Recknagel.

RFE/RL: You are one of an increasing number of regional analysts who see a forthcoming accord between Ankara and Yerevan. Why is that?

Richard Giragosian: We see broader developments that have moved both parties, Armenia and Turkey, much closer to forging a historic agreement. These broader trends include not only Russian support for such an initiative but we also see [that] the upcoming visit of U.S. President [Barack] Obama to Turkey [on April 6-7], the recent visit of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Turkey, and several months of secret negotiations and diplomatic negotiations between the Armenians and Turks in Switzerland have paved the way for a historic breakthrough agreement.

RFE/RL: There are some additional variables to consider that might increase pressure to reach agreement, including Obama’s campaign promise to support a Congressional resolution that would recognize as genocide the killings of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire in the period of World War I, and the upcoming Armenian Remembrance Day on April 24, which the White House traditionally marks with a statement. How soon do you think a Turkish-Armenian accord might be announced?

Giragosian: We see leaks of such a deal in the Turkish media and it seems both sides are now preparing their respective societies to brace for an announcement that possibly could come as early as April 16, when the Turkish foreign minister arrives in Armenia in the form of a meeting of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation organization.

However, I do not expect a breakthrough agreement to be unveiled during the April 16 meeting. It seems more likely that Turkey will decide to wait until after April 24 in order to exert maximum leverage over the Obama administration to refrain from recognizing the “Armenian Genocide” in his April 24 statement.

Thawing Relations

RFE/RL: If there is an announcement of an accord, what points might it include?

Giragosian: Several elements will be announced, starting with an agreement to open the long-closed border between Armenia and Turkey, followed by an agreement to move toward diplomatic relations, with the Turkish ambassador in Georgia most likely assuming the portfolio of representing Turkey in Armenia.

Third, we see an agreement as well to form a large, all-encompassing governmental commission to resolve several issues, most importantly including the “Armenian Genocide” issue. And fourthly, we do see signs of a possible Turkish unveiling of a new document or road map on Nagorno-Karabakh committing all sides to work within the OSCE Minsk Group mediation process and committing all sides to working hard to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which is the last frozen conflict in the region.

RFE/RL: How much opposition is there in Turkey and Armenia to an accord?

Giragosian: Once the agreement is announced publicly, this will invite confrontation with powerful vested interests. On the Turkish side, the vested interests which will oppose this will perhaps be a nationalist reaction against normalization. From the Armenian side, the Armenian government will have to deal with the Armenian diaspora, which has taken the lead role in terms of Armenian nationalism on this issue and the lead role in genocide-recognition efforts.

All Sides In Favor

RFE/RL: You are in Yerevan. What is motivating the Armenian government to pursue an accord at this time?

Giragosian: The timing is both ironic and inductive to normalization and an agreement, mainly because it is this Armenian government that is much less popular and much less legitimate than any previous Armenian government, making its desire for a foreign-policy success even more profound.

The Armenian government, embattled by a political internal stalemate, needs a foreign-policy success to distract international attention and divert it away from domestic shortcomings and also to endow it with a degree of legitimacy, which it lacks.

RFE/RL: And what about the Turkish side?

Giragosian: We also see, for the first time, that it is in Turkey’s national security interest to open the border, to stabilize the restive Kurdish regions of eastern Turkey, which, after the war in Iraq, is even a larger concern for Turkey.

RFE/RL: Finally, what is Russia’s position on a Turkish-Armenian accord? In the past, Moscow — which has strong ties with Yerevan — has been seen as against it. Has that changed?

Giragosian: The key difference here is that after the war in August [in South Ossetia between Russia and Georgia], the Russians are now supporting the process, unlike in the past, and in fact they are also looking to use open borders between Armenia and Turkey to their own economic benefit by virtue of their control over energy and telecommunications in Armenia, but also to further isolate and marginalize Georgia, which is in their strategic interest.

But despite the negative agenda I do think that, regardless of the motivations, that the end result is a net benefit for all sides.

https://www.rferl.org/a/Are_Turkey_And_Armenia_About_To_Normalize_Relations/1600894.html

April 2, 2009
Outreach to Armenia prompts Azeri threat

by Barçın Yinanç

ISTANBUL -Concerned that the Turkish government might open its border with Armenia before reconciliation is reached, the Azerbaijani government has signaled it might stop selling natural gas to Turkey.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev told third parties that Baku would cut gas supplies to Turkey if Ankara reaches an agreement with Yerevan before substantial progress is underway on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review has learned. As a sign of how serious it is, Azerbaijan signed a memorandum of understanding with Russia last week for long-term supply of gas at market prices.

Turkey and Armenia have been holding talks to normalize ties, which would involve the establishment of diplomatic relations and the opening of borders. Although Turkey was one of the first countries to recognize Armenia in 1991, Ankara has no diplomatic relations with its neighbor. In 1993, Ankara closed its border with Armenia in an act of solidarity with Azerbaijan after Armenia occupied Nagorno-Karabakh.

Turkey and Armenia are said to have come very close to an agreement on the timetable to normalize relations. As April 24 is approaching, the date each year when the United States issues a presidential statement on the World War I mass killings of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire, expectations are high that Turkey and Armenia will announce an agreement. U.S. President Barack Obama had pledged to recognize the Armenian killings as “genocide” during his election campaign. A joint statement by Turkish and Armenian officials on the normalization of relations might prevent Obama from using the word “genocide.”

This development in turn has upset the Azerbaijani government, which argues a decision to open Turkey’s borders with Armenia would leave Baku at a disadvantage in negotiating for the withdrawal of Armenian troops from Azerbaijani territory. The ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, has been the target of severe criticism in the Azerbaijani press with commentators there accusing the Turkish government of selling out. The Turkish Foreign Ministry has been informed that Aliyev has told third parties that were Turkey to open its borders to Armenia, cooperation on energy supplies would end.

Ankara and Baku have been trying to reach an agreement over the price of natural gas Turkey buys from Azerbaijan through the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline. The agreement to buy natural gas for $120 per 1,000 cubic meters for the duration of the first year following the opening of the pipeline has long ended and the two failed to reach an agreement as Azerbaijan wants to sell its gas at international market prices, which is around $350 per 1,000 cubic meters.

Russia, on the other hand, has been courting Azerbaijan to buy its gas at international market prices in order to undermine the Nabucco project, which aims to bring Central Asian gas to Europe via Turkey. Gazprom and the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan last week signed a memorandum of understanding for long-term supplies of Central Asian gas to Russia at market prices, Web site Euractiv.com reported yesterday. According to Gazprom’s press release, the parties committed to massive long-term cooperation after an agreement was reached March 27 to settle the terms of Azerbaijan’s gas sales to Russia.

Pavel K. Baev, a senior researcher from the Oslo International Research Institute, said the project could make Nabucco irrelevant as Azerbaijan is seen as the most likely gas supplier for Nabucco. The Turkish government is under pressure from the Obama administration to finalize and announce the agreement with Yerevan. Turkey and Armenia have agreed on most of the wording of a protocol for normalization but there are still some points where the two need to agree. The Turkish side wants to insert the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh in the protocol, but the Armenian side has not been compromising on the issue.

April 2, 2009
Pro-Armenian lawmaker says U.S. Congress will not recognize bill

ISTANBUL – A pro-Armenian U.S. lawmaker said Thursday that Congress is not likely to pass a bill recognizing the Armenian claims regarding the 1915 incidents in a bid to sooth Turkey’s concerns.

The resolution would not pass this year again, although there are high expectations this time as U.S. President Obama has promised to recognize the Armenian claims during election campaign, Republican congressman Mark Kirk, one of the four authors of the bill presented to the House of Representatives, told Turkey’s Aksam daily.

“The expectations are high this year, because President Obama gave an important promise to Armenians. But I think the situation is desperate,” he said.

“Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi will not dare pass the bill. She will not place Obama in a difficult position. The bill will not pass, don’t worry,” he added.

U.S. lawmakers introduced last month a resolution recognizing the Armenian claims regarding the 1915 incidents. The resolution, titled “The Affirmation of the U.S. Record on the Armenian Genocide,” has the support of 77 co-sponsors from both parties in the House of Representatives.

Turkey has warned that the introduction of the resolution could harm both efforts to improve ties with Armenia and bilateral relations with the United States.

U.S. lawmakers almost passed a similar resolution two years ago, but congressional leaders did not bring it up for a vote after intense pressure from then-President George W. Bush and top members of his administration.

“Bill will pass eventually”

Kirk also told Aksam that if the promise given to Armenians is not fulfilled, Democrats may lose Congress elections in 2010.

The U.S. congressmen added he believed that Congress would eventually recognize the Armenian claims.

Armenia, with the backing of the diaspora, claims up to 1.5 million of their kin were slaughtered in orchestrated killings in 1915.

Turkey rejects the claims saying that 300,000 Armenians, along with at least as many Turks, died in civil strife that emerged when Armenians took up arms, backed by Russia, for independence in eastern Anatolia.

Turkey has offered to form a joint commission to investigate what happened in 1915 and opened up all official archives, but Armenia has continued to drag its feet on accepting the offer.

April 2, 2009
Obama encouraged to lobby against genocide bill

By Bridget Johnson
Posted: 04/01/09 02:46 PM [ET]

A new report warns President Obama that recognizing the World War I-era killings of Armenians as genocide — or not lobbying Congress to ditch a bill recognizing as much — would be a bad foreign-policy move.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report released this week studies the future of U.S. relations with Turkey, in advance of Obama’s visit to the predominantly Muslim nation next Monday and Tuesday.

“A near-term uncertainty in the [American-Turkish] relationship is the ‘Armenian genocide resolution,’ ” the report states. “If President Obama takes no action to prevent congressional enactment of the resolution … endorses the measure, or uses the word genocide himself, the Turkish response will be harsh and trigger a bitter breach in relations.”

The resolution, introduced March 17 by Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) with 77 co-sponsors, now has 88 co-sponsors and has been referred to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. Rep. Gresham Barrett (R-S.C.), a co-sponsor on the day of the bill’s introduction, withdrew his sponsorship on March 23.

The contentious resolution calls the deaths of as many as 1.5 million Armenians at the hands of the Ottoman Empire starting in 1915 “genocide.” Turkey blames the deaths on civil upheaval toward the end of and directly after World War I, saying that 300,000 Armenians were killed, and at least as many Turks.

In a January 2008 campaign statement, Obama vowed to back such a resolution if elected.

“The facts are undeniable,” Obama said. “An official policy that calls on diplomats to distort the historical facts is an untenable policy. As a senator, I strongly support passage of the Armenian Genocide Resolution … and as president I will recognize the Armenian Genocide.”

The CSIS report, introduced Monday by Zbigniew Brzezinski and Brent Scowcroft, says, “Rather than seek to legislate history, the United States and the international community should provide maximum encouragement and support to the diplomatic rapprochement being pursued by the governments of Turkey and Armenia, as well as to emerging regional cooperation.”

The report calls the bill “of foremost concern in bilateral relations,” and said the issue has been “hanging like the sword of Damocles over the relationship for 20 years.”

It adds that “there seems to be a real danger of either the White House refraining from lobbying against the resolution and thus permitting its passage or of a direct acknowledgement through a presidential statement.”

Armenian leaders have expressed hope that Obama will follow through on that pledge. The Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) is encouraging its website visitors to lobby their legislators to support the bill.

Aram Hamparian, executive director of ANCA, questioned whether CSIS was receiving foreign funding that may have influenced its report. “The best way to understand where CSIS is coming from is to understand where their money comes from,” he said.

“We’re confident that President Obama is a man of his word,” Hamparian said. “We look forward to him honoring his pledge.”

Source: thehill.com, 04/01/09

April 2, 2009
“California is not Armenia…”

Our work in line with the tasks set by the leadership is primarily aimed to assist to strengthening of partner relations between Azerbaijan and the United States, said Azerbaijani consul general in Los Angeles Elin Suleymanov, speaking about the work of the consulate.

He said the negative reaction of some Armenian mass medias on the activity of Azerbaijani diplomats in the United States is surprising.

Certainly, there are many Armenians residing in California, the influence of the Armenian lobby is felt here but California is not Armenia and the US interest in our region are not limited with narrow ethic views of some representatives of Armenian diaspora. Therefore, our activity in the framework of bilateral US-Azerbaijani relations should not be perceived so painfully”, noted Suleymanov.

“The US-Azerbaijani partnership includes a wide range of issues including cooperation in spheres of transport of energy sources of the Caspian Sea and international security, creating conditions for intensification of the dialogue of civilizations and fight with different demonstrations of extremism. The United States support Azerbaijan’s efforts in the sphere of regional integration and pragmatic policy of the country leadership for strengthening stability and peace in our region.

In this background, the ethnocentric and sometimes even racist statements of some radical representatives of Armenian side unfortunately stress the tendencies that continue damaging the future of Armenia”, noted the consul.
As for the resolution of the Karabakh conflict and the real changes in the attitude to the conflict in the United States, the consul said:

“I think Washington always understood the importance of the resolution of the conflict for the future of our region, including for the strategic interests of the United States. Practice shows that unsettled conflicts pose a serious threat to regional stability. Therefore, I think the intention to help the resolution is quite sincere, though its too early to judge about the way it will influence the real actions of the co-chairing states”.

Speaking about the work with Azerbaijani diaspora organizations, in particular from Los Angeles, he said the work with compatriots is the integral part of the activity of the general consulate in Los Angeles.

“We are glad to observe the recent intensification of the organizations, representing Azerbaijani diaspora in the United States. Moreover, the activeness of Azerbaijani diaspora becomes more effective and large scale.

I do not consider that we should regard the activity of our diaspora only as confrontation or competitive to Armenian. Interests of US Azerbaijanis are comprehensive in science, culture, regional policy and other issues. For example, the US-Azerbaijani council is actively cooperating with Jewish organizations on interreligious dialogue, while the history of Turkic people was in the center of attention of the scientific conference held by this organization in December of 2008”, noted Suleymanov.

He said in conclusion that Azerbaijani diaspora also reached significant success in the sphere of organization of academic arrangements.

“As for the Armenian diaspora, it continues to be one of the organized and numerous ethnic-political groups in the United States, that have influence on politicians on the spots and on the federal level”, said Suleymanov.

http://www.today.az/news/politics/51246.html

April 1, 2009
Nevada Governor proclaims March 31 as Remembrance Day

The Governor of Nevada, Mr. Jim Gibbons, has issued an official proclamation which commemorates the “deaths of tens of thousands of Azerbaijani civilians”, victims of the genocidal policy pursued by Armenian forces during the “March Massacres” of 1918 in Baku and other cities of Azerbaijan, APA US bureau reports.

This state proclamation marks the first-ever time that any high-ranking U.S. elected official has formally and officially acknowledged the Azerbaijani suffering in the past century and designated March 31 as the Azerbaijani Remembrance Day. To commemorate March 31, the “Day of Genocide of Azerbaijanis”, activists from USAN (US Azeris Network) have sought and received the first-ever formal recognition of this special date and the tragedy by any U.S. government authority. The crucial outreach and coordination efforts were spearheaded and led by a USAN activist based in the great State of Nevada, Dr. Bob Guney, USAN Executive Director Adil Bagirov told APA. The proclamation by the Nevada Governor also emphasizes the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Azerbaijan by stipulating that the Karabakh region is a U.S.-recognized part of the Republic of Azerbaijan.

Previously, over the years, the U.S. Azeris Network (USAN) and its grassroots activists have sought and received dozens of proclamations from Governors and Mayors across the United States (Washington D.C., State of Virginia, City of Alexandria, Country of Arlington, City of Philadelphia, State of Pennsylvania, State of Wisconsin, State of North Carolina, as well as Texas, California, Missouri and others) on the National Day of Azerbaijan (May 28) and Independence Day of Azerbaijan (October 18), which have always stressed the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan by specifically mentioning the Armenia-occupied Karabakh region. To promote greater knowledge and understanding of the March 1918 events, the USAN and its activists have sponsored the re-publication, and its subsequent distribution to the leading public libraries.

http://www.today.az/news/politics/51256.html

April 1, 2009