Category: Middle East & Africa

  • Iran, Armenia ink 10 agreements, official

    Iran, Armenia ink 10 agreements, official

    Tehran, Nov 24, IRNA

    Secretary of the National Security Council of Armenia Arthur Baghdasaryan told reporters on Monday that Iran, Armenia inked ten agreements on security, political and economic cooperation.

    In a meeting with his Iranian counterpart Saeed Jalili, Baghdasaryan said that his talks with the Iranian officials have been fruitful.

    Referring to his talks with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as promising, Baghdasaryan said that the two sides conferred on issues of mutual interest.

    He also expressed pleasure with his acquaintance with Iran’s Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Saeed Jalili as a professional man.

    The Armenian official said that Iran and Armenia are two friendly countries determined to boost mutual ties in security, political and economic fields as well as legal cooperation.

    He extended his invitation to Jalili to visit Armenia.

    Meanwhile, Jalili said that Tehran and Yerevan enjoy longstanding historical and friendly ties; therefore, they can develop those ties.

    He added that the two countries would promote mutual relations and hold consultations on international and regional cooperation as well.

    Jalili said that the two sides’ talks focused on paving the way for cooperation based on mutual interest.

    Baghdasaryan arrived in Tehran on Sunday and was accorded formal welcome by his Iranian counterpart.

  • TURKEY ADJUSTS ITS FOREIGN POLICY TO THE PLANNED U.S. WITHDRAWAL FROM IRAQ

    TURKEY ADJUSTS ITS FOREIGN POLICY TO THE PLANNED U.S. WITHDRAWAL FROM IRAQ

    By Emrullah Uslu
    Thursday, November 20, 2008

    U.S. and Iraqi officials finally agreed on a withdrawal plan requiring Washington to withdraw its forces within three years. The withdrawal will have a direct impact on Turkish-Iraqi relations. Ankara’s immediate concern is related to the control of Iraqi airspace, which will fall under the authority of Baghdad on January 1, 2009. This could affect Turkish air raids on the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) camps in northern Iraq. With a green light from the United States, Turkish jets have been launching attacks on the camps since 2007. Moreover, since November 5, 2007, the United States has been sharing satellite intelligence from its Unmanned Aircraft Vehicles (UAV). Ankara is concerned about whether Iraqi officials will allow Turkey to continue its air raids (Milliyet, November 19).Although U.S. President-elect Barack Obama told the Turkish president that his country had the right to protect itself from PKK terrorism (Milliyet, November 19), Turkey wants to ensure that the raids will not be interrupted by the transition of control over Iraqi airspace. Turkish diplomats are working hard to adjust the Turkish position to fit the new situation. Turkey’s Interior Minister Besir Atalay paid a visit to Baghdad, during which the Iraqi government announced the establishment of a joint committee of senior Iraqi, Turkish, and U.S. officials to fight the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (Today’s Zaman, November 20). While Turkish delegates were visiting Iraq, an Iraqi delegation was in Ankara; and there are plans for Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to meet with Iraqi Minister of State for National Dialogue Akram al-Hakim and Iraq’s Counter Terrorism special envoy Sirvan Elvai (Zaman, November 19).

    Turkey’s second concern is whether Iraq will be able to maintain its unity and, more precisely, how the Kurds will respond to the changing circumstances. How will the Kirkuk question be addressed? The relationship between the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) and the central government in Baghdad is becoming increasingly tense. KRG President Massoud Barzani used an appearance on local television to condemn Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki for attempting “to place power in the hands of one person and one party” (Al-Bayyna al-Jadidah, November 18).

    During security operations in March, Maliki created “Support Councils” that were made up of members of important tribes. They are funded and directed by Maliki’s office, and their ostensible aim is to give the tribes a role in maintaining local security and providing services (www.npr.org, October 22). The editor of the Kurdish Globe said that “Al-Maliki’s plan to establish Support Councils, including a tribal force in Kirkuk, is not only a direct threat to the Kurdish national interests but at the same time an issue that has the potential to destroy the already feeble relations between Kurds and Iraq” (Kurdish Globe, November 20).

    Barzani strongly reacted to the plan, stating that “the prime minister was one of the contributors of drafting the constitution, but any retreat from the constitution means retreating to dictatorship” (Kurdish Globe, November 20). He warned that Kurds who joined these Support Councils would be dealt with as “traitors” and Arabs who enrolled in them as “enemies” (Cihan Haber Ajansi, November 18).

    The Financial Times reported that the Kirkuk issue will become a pressing foreign policy concern for the next U.S. administration, not just because the Kirkuk dispute has the potential to pit Arab against Kurd and provoke intervention from neighboring states. It could also harm Washington’s relations with its closest allies in Iraq “the Kurdish authorities” (Financial Times, November 11, Zaman, November 13).

    It seems that the tension between Kurds and Arabs will continue for the near future. For this reason, the KRG wants to improve its relations with Turkey. The International Crisis Group maintains that when the U.S forces start drawing down significantly in the next two years, the Kurds will increasingly be dependent on the federal government and neighboring states such as Turkey and Iran. â EURO oeUnder this scenario, Turkey would be a more useful partner to the Kurds than either Baghdad or Tehran, because of the prospect it offers of access to the European Union, its availability as a transit country for Kurdish oil and gas; its ability to invest in major infrastructure projects; and the better quality of the goods it sells to Iraqâ EURO ™s Kurdistan Federal Regionâ EURO (www.crisisgroup.org, November 13).

    Yet Turkish and Arab demands on the Kirkuk issue are similar. It will therefore be very difficult for the Kurds to convince Turkey to support its Kirkuk claim. Under the circumstances the KRG has two cards to play: first, the KRG could use PKK terrorism as a means of balancing the KRG and Turkish demands (Hurriyet, November 18); and second, after January 1 the KRG will have some authority to stop Turkeyâ EURO ™s air operations against the PKK in Iraqi territory. Thus, allowing Turkey to continue its air operations will be a bargaining chip for the KRG. For Turkish side, it is expected that the United States will use the Incirlik airbase and the port of Mersin for a quick withdrawal. In this case, Turkey could use Incirlik and Mersin as a bargaining chip for convincing the United States to persuade the KRG to cooperate with Turkey against the PKK (www.ntvmsnbc.com, November 18).

    No matter how and when the United States withdraws its troops from Iraq, it will create many complications that would unsettle the region for a while. The key issue during the withdrawal period is the Kirkuk question. If the United States uses its influence on the Kurds to recognize Kirkuk as outside of Kurdish Regional Government jurisdiction, the Kurds will have the benefit of easily establishing good relations with Turkey. Ankara will be happy to see the Kurdish region as a buffer zone between itself and Iraq in case a civil war erupts in Iraq. Otherwise, Kirkuk could potentially be the center of a civil war between the Kurds, Arabs, and Turkmens.

  • Nobel laureate: Suspend Israel from UN

    Nobel laureate: Suspend Israel from UN

    Nobel Peace Prize laureate Mairead Maguire says the United Nations should suspend or revoke Israel’s membership.

    Irish Nobel Peace Prize winner Mairead McGuire, who arrived in Gaza on the "Free Gaza" boat, left, holds a gift from Hamas Prime Minister, Ismail Haniyeh, right, at his office in Gaza City last month. Photo: AP

    Maguire says Israel should be punished for ignoring a series of United Nations resolutions over the years. Maguire won the 1976 peace prize for her work with Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland.

    She is visiting the Palestinian territories to protest Israel’s blockade of the Gaza Strip. Israel virtually sealed off the territories after the Hamas took over there in 2007. The closure tightened two weeks ago in response to Hamas rocket fire on Israeli border communities.

    Maguire told a news conference Thursday that it’s time for the international community to take action against Israel.

    Last month, Maguire and 27 international protesters sailed into the Gaza Strip in the “Free Gaza” boat to bring attention to Israel’s blockade of the Hamas-controlled territory

    Source: www.jpost.com,

  • Middle East Priorities For Jan. 21

    Middle East Priorities For Jan. 21

    By Brent Scowcroft and Zbigniew Brzezinski

    Friday, November 21, 2008; Page A23

    The election of Barack Obama to be the 44th president is profoundly historic. We have at long last been able to come together in a way that has eluded us in the long history of our great country. We should celebrate this triumph of the true spirit of America.

    Election Day celebrations were replicated in time zones around the world, something we have not seen in a long time. While euphoria is ephemeral, we must endeavor to use its energy to bring us all together as Americans to cope with the urgent problems that beset us.

    When Obama takes office in two months, he will find a number of difficult foreign policy issues competing for his attention, each with strong advocates among his advisers. We believe that the Arab-Israeli peace process is one issue that requires priority attention.

    In perhaps no other region was the election of Obama more favorably received than the Middle East. Immediate attention to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute would help cement the goodwill that Obama’s election engendered. Not everyone in the Middle East views the Palestinian issue as the greatest regional challenge, but the deep sense of injustice it stimulates is genuine and pervasive.

    Unfortunately, the current administration’s intense efforts over the past year will not resolve the issue by Jan. 20. But to let attention lapse would reinforce the feelings of injustice and neglect in the region. That could spur another eruption of violence between the warring parties or in places such as Lebanon or Gaza, reversing what progress has been made and sending the parties back to square one. Lurking in the background is the possibility that the quest for a two-state solution may be abandoned by the Palestinians, the Israelis, or both — with unfortunate consequences for all.

    Resolution of the Palestinian issue would have a positive impact on the region. It would liberate Arab governments to support U.S. leadership in dealing with regional problems, as they did before the Iraq invasion. It would dissipate much of the appeal of Hezbollah and Hamas, dependent as it is on the Palestinians’ plight. It would change the region’s psychological climate, putting Iran back on the defensive and putting a stop to its swagger.

    The major elements of an agreement are well known. A key element in any new initiative would be for the U.S. president to declare publicly what, in the view of this country, the basic parameters of a fair and enduring peace ought to be. These should contain four principal elements: 1967 borders, with minor, reciprocal and agreed-upon modifications; compensation in lieu of the right of return for Palestinian refugees; Jerusalem as real home to two capitals; and a nonmilitarized Palestinian state.

    Something more might be needed to deal with Israeli security concerns about turning over territory to a Palestinian government incapable of securing Israel against terrorist activity. That could be dealt with by deploying an international peacekeeping force, such as one from NATO, which could not only replace Israeli security but train Palestinian troops to become effective.

    To date, the weakness of the negotiating parties has limited their ability to come to an agreement by themselves. The elections in Israel scheduled for February are certainly a complicating factor, as is the deep split among Palestinians between Fatah and Hamas. But if the peace process begins to gain momentum, it is difficult to imagine that Hamas will want to be left out, and that same momentum would provide the Israeli people a unique chance to register their views on the future of their country.

    This weakness can be overcome by the president speaking out clearly and forcefully about the fundamental principles of the peace process; he also must press the case with steady determination. That initiative should then be followed — not preceded — by the appointment of a high-level dignitary to pursue the process on the president’s behalf, a process based on the enunciated presidential guidelines. Such a presidential initiative should instantly galvanize support, both domestic and international, and provide great encouragement to the Israeli and Palestinian peoples.

    To say that achieving a successful resolution of this critical issue is a simple task would be to scoff at history. But in many ways the current situation is such that the opportunity for success has never been greater, or the costs of failure more severe.

    Brent Scowcroft was national security adviser to Presidents Gerald Ford and George H.W. Bush. He is president of the Forum for International Policy and the Scowcroft Group. Zbigniew Brzezinski was national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter. He is trustee and counselor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The two are authors of “America and The World: Conversations on the Future of American Foreign Policy.”

    Source: www.washingtonpost.com, November 21, 2008

  • Summary of DEBKA file Exclusives in Week Ending Nov. 20, 2008

    Summary of DEBKA file Exclusives in Week Ending Nov. 20, 2008


     
    Summary of DEBKAfile Exclusives in Week Ending Nov. 20, 2008
    Four armed Palestinians killed in Israeli air strike after missile fire from Gaza 15 Nov.: The terrorists were encouraged to escalate their offensive by the decision Prime minister Ehud Olmert, defense minister Ehud Barak and chief of staff Lt. Gen. Gaby Ashkenazi reached Friday night to refrain from fighting back after Ashkelon was hit by 6 Palestinian Grads and Sderot battered by 11 Qassam missiles on Day 10 of the Hamas blitz. 

    One Sderot 82-year old woman suffered shrapnel wounds, 22 were hospitalized in shock. Since then, the population within range of the Gaza Strip was told to stay in protected sites – when they have them – uncertain about whether they can return to normal work and school activities Sunday.

    Ashkelon town hall opened the public bomb shelters, while the city of Ashdod to the north ordered the shelters prepared. Several ministers as well as opposition leaders are demanding an effective military campaign against the terrorist groups ruling Gaza before it is too late. They say the Gaza truce, due for renewal next month, has become a farce.


    Sinai Bedouin revolt continues, 25 Egyptian police killed in clashes 15 Nov.: Clashes between insurgent Bedouin and Egyptian border police in central Sinai Friday, Nov. 14, left 25 Egyptians dead. No figures were immediately available on Bedouin casualties. The armed insurrection erupted Saturday, Nov. 7, when Egyptian troops posted at the Nitzana border post opened fire on a suspected drug smugglers’ truck, killing the Bedouin driver. 

    Hundreds of armed tribesmen in pick-up trucks bent on revenge – mostly Tarabin, Azazme and Tihama members – swarmed to the scene and began shooting up the Egyptian border guards. Around 1,000 besieged Egyptian positions along the Sinai-Israeli border south of Rafah. They took dozens of Egyptians hostage, including a general. The Bedouin outbreak assumed the form of an organized uprising when their chief commander handed the Egyptian officers a list of demands.


    Al Qaeda says order given for attack “far bigger than 9/11” 16 Nov.: DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources report that US president-elect Barack Obama, European and Russian heads of state in Washington for the G20 conference over the weekend were briefed about an early al Qaeda attack. 

    Obama and his team have been advised that a new al Qaeda strike is highly probable in the United States or against a key US target in Europe, North Africa or the Middle East.

    On Thursday night, Nov. 14, Central Intelligence Director Gen. Michael Hayden said: “Al Qaeda, operating from its safe haven in Pakistan’s tribal areas, remains the most clear and present danger to the United States.” Every major terrorist threat threads back to the tribal areas, he said. “Whether it is command and control, training, direction, money, capabilities, there is a connection to the FATA (Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas.)”
    Hayden also mentioned Yemen and Somalia as important al Qaeda theaters of operation.


    Four armed Palestinians killed in Israeli air strike after missile fire from Gaza 16 Nov.: The Israeli air strike killed armed Palestinians on their way to blow up the Karni crossing through which supplies reach Gaza, Sunday, Nov. 16. The missiles landed outside a kibbutz. 

    The missile fire contradicts the calming statements from Israeli leaders claiming Hamas wants to maintain the agreed truce. Hamas spokesmen in fact demand the unconditional reopening of all the Gaza crossings by Israel and Egypt without commitments on their part.

    The Gaza-based Palestinian terrorist group announced Saturday, Nov. 15, that the 120,000 inhabitants of the Mediterranean port town of Ashkelon 15 kilometers from Gaza, were now held hostage. All Israeli military strikes in Gaza would be countered by long-range (25-kilometer) Iran-supplied Grad artillery rocket attacks on the city. “The rules of the game have changed,” said Hamas.


    Nine Palestinian missiles fired from Gaza Monday 17 Nov.: The first salvo of seven Qassam missiles damaged buildings in the Eshkol farm district Monday, Nov. 17, followed by two in the evening that were aimed at Sderot. There were no casualties. British foreign secretary David Miliband visited Sderot and was shown the damage Palestinian missiles caused since the Gaza truce broke down two weeks ago.  


    Israeli Arab nursery-school teacher charged with abetting Gaza terrorists 17 Nov.: Sumiya Abu Ghanem, 21, a nursery school teaching aide in the Israeli town of Ramle, was charged before the Petach Tikva district court Monday. She was detained a month ago as a result of a joint Border Police-Shin Bet operation. The charges against Abu Ghanem included conspiring to aid the Palestinian Fatah terrorist group in Gaza in a scheme to kidnap an Israeli. She was also asked to help spirit a Palestinian suicide killer into a crowded place in an Israeli town.  


    Hamas to maintain missile blitz up to Ashdod – until Israel’s February poll
    DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
    17 Nov.: DEBKAfile’s military sources report that Israeli government leaders have misread the motives behind Hamas’ two-week missile-rocket-mortar assault on Israel as jockeying for better terms when the six-month truce comes up for renewal next month. Their decision to mute Israel’s military response to the ongoing violence stems from their misplaced expectation that the attacks will stop once the truce is in the bag. 

    Israeli intelligence circles estimate that Hamas will continue escalating the violence at least up until Israel’s general election on Feb. 10, 2009:
    1. The 25-kilometer range Grad multiple-launch rockets, which the radical terrorists have vowed to continue firing against the Mediterranean port-town of Ashkelon, will also be directed further north to Ashdod, Israel’s most important port after Haifa. This will keep Hamas at center stage of Israel’s election campaign and demonstrate who really influences the Israeli voter. The rival Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas, whose “peace talks” with Israel came to naught, will be left behind.

    2. Hamas calculates that a major Israeli operation in Gaza will be so costly in casualties for the Palestinian population and Israeli troops alike that an international outcry will force the IDF to cut the campaign short without achieving its goals. Israel’s failure to achieve victory will enhance Hamas’ standing in Gaza and the West Bank – just like Hizballah after the 2006 Lebanon war.


    Mullen: The US Army has begun practicing traveling out of Iraq and into Afghanistan 18 Nov.: Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in an interview to AP that the exit routes practiced through Turkey and Jordan would determine “what the challenges might be.” Both governments support the effort. 

    DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the US army chief’s statement marks the beginning of the American withdrawal from Iraq. While he is still following the orders of President Bush, Mullen said he was clearly aware of president-elect Barack Obama’s plan to withdraw the US army from Iraq in 16 months.

    This development is a negative augur for Israel’s strategic situation; after Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, the door is open for Iran to take control of another Arab nation in its vicinity. The Israel military has made no preparations for the encroaching Iranian presence.

    Iran, Syria tauten grip on Lebanon, Tehran woos Christian president
    DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
     

    18 Nov.: Tehran and Damascus are going all out to get their hooks into Lebanon’s Christian politicians and wean them away from their’ traditional ties with the West. President Michel Suleiman this week accepted an Iranian invitation to visit Tehran Nov. 24-25, while another Lebanese Christian leader, Hizballah’s ally Gen. Michel Aoun, arranged to visit Damascus.

    DEBKAfile’s Middle East sources report that the Iranians are forging ahead with a campaign to bind the region’s Christian minorities to their Shiite wagon for challenging Sunni domination. Their first quarry is Lebanon’s powerful community.

    Although these developments bode ill for Israel too, they were left out of the sweeping 2009 prognosis which the Israeli Military Intelligence chief Maj. Amos Yadlin delivered in Tel Aviv Monday, Nov. 17. Neither did he look ahead to the likelihood that Iran would be able to assemble a nuclear weapon early next year. Senior Israeli intelligence circles described the evaluations heard from Yadlin Monday as less attuned to reality than the estimated positions of the incoming US president Barack Obama’s Middle East team and Olmert-Livni policies. Like them, he omitted to address the agendas which Tehran and Damascus are actively pursuing.


    Gaza crossings resealed Tuesday after 9 Palestinian missiles fired from Gaza 18 Nov.: The first salvo of seven Qassam missiles damaged buildings in the Eshkol farm district Monday, Nov. 17, followed by two in the evening that were aimed at Sderot. There were no casualties. Still, Israeli allowed 33 truckloads of supplies into Gaza following heavy international pressure and UNWRA renewed food supplies to the population. But fuel shipments are held up for as long as the Palestinians shoot rockets, missiles and mortars into Israel. 

    In two weeks they have fired 140 projectiles, effectively terminating the informal truce agreed in June and up for renewal next month. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon voiced concern to Israel about the suffering in Gaza under the Israeli blockade. Prime minister Ehud Olmert replied that the correct address for such complaints is Hamas.


    Final IAEA report: Syrian site hit by Israel resembled an atomic reactor
    DEBKAfile Special Report
    19 Nov.: The final report of the International Atomic Energy Agency Wednesday, Nov. 19, says the Syrian complex bombed by Israel 14 months ago bore features resembling those of an undeclared nuclear reactor. “Significant” amounts of man-made uranium particles were found in situ. This report will be submitted the nuclear watchdog board meeting in Vienna on Nov. 27-28. 

    Damascus is accused of failing to produce requested documentation to support its declaration about the nature of the building and refusing follow-up IAEA visits to three other locations suspected of harboring possible evidence linked to Israel’s target.
    DEBKAfile was the only publication to report that the Israeli attack targeted more than one Syrian site.

    Our military sources stress that the IAEA report attests to one of the most formidable feats of Israel’s external intelligence agency Mossad in conjunction with the US CIA. Syrian president Bashar Assad is now confirmed as having been in the process of building nuclear weapons intended for attacking Israel.


    Al Qaeda’s venomous message for Obama 19 Nov.: In an audio message released Wednesday, Nov. 19, Ayman al-Zahari, al Qaeda’s No. 2, said US president-elect Barack Obama was not an “honorable black American” like Malcolm X but a “house negro” like Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice. He urged Muslims to keep up attacks on the “criminal” US and criticized Obama for “promising to back Israel.” 

    Obama’s plan to shift troops to Afghanistan would fail, said Zawahri, in a message appearing on Islamist websites. He added: “A heavy legacy of failure and crimes awaits you.” The Islamist leader criticized Obama, born to a Muslim Kenyan farther, for what he described as turning his back on his Muslim roots.


    Indian navy sinks pirate “mother ship” in Gulf of Aden19 Nov.: Late Tuesday, Nov. 18, after a Thai boat and Iranian cargo vessel were hijacked, the Indian navy’s Tabar stealth frigate fought back and destroyed a pirate vessel loaded with food, diesel and water, with two speed boats in tow. On the deck, were rocket-propelled grenade launchers and guns. The attack took place 285 nautical miles southwest off Salalah, Oman. DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources report that this area would be well off the Somali pirates’ beaten track and cause of concern on another score, their proximity to the Strait of Hormuz. 

    The Indian navy says it was the third attack the Indian warship had repelled since its anti-piracy mission began in the Gulf of Aden on Nov. 2. On Nov. 11, Indian naval commandos flying a helicopter foiled an attempt to hijack an Indian merchant ship.


    Israel chief of staff at NATO 19 Nov.: Israel’s chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Gaby Ashkenazi, will address NATO military leaders convened in Brussels on IDF’s counter-terror tactics and technology. 

    He has appointments set up with the US, French, German and Turkish military chiefs.


    First US, Russian steps to combat Somali piracy 20 Nov.: The US and multinational naval force patrolling the coast off Somali urged merchant vessels Thursday, Nov. 20, to sail with armed guards on board and only on lanes patrolled by warships. 

    The Russian Navy commander Adm. Vladimir Vysotsky announced more warships would be sent to the danger zone. US Vice Adm. William Gortney said merchant ships crews were being taught non-violent measures to prevent pirates boarding their vessels, such sharp rudder movements and speed adjustments to throw their speed boats off course.
    The Saudi tanker, the biggest ship every hijacked, is being held off the Somali coast with 2 million barrels of crude and a crew of 25, for a $25 million ransom.

    A NATO fleet of US, French, British and Danish warships along with Indian, Malaysian and Russian naval vessels are patrolling the Gulf of Aden and Somali waters. They were unable to prevent the seizure of the super tanker and three merchant vessels this week.


    New polls register seismic Israeli shift to right of center
    DEBKAfile Special Report
    20 Nov.: With 61 days to go to Israel’s general election, at least two opinion polls position the right-of center opposition Likud ahead of its rivals with 32 Knesset seats (out of 120), whereas the ruling Kadima, led by foreign minister Tzipi Livni, would fall to 26, with two-thirds of its former voters dropping out. 

    Likud leader former PM Binyamin Netanyahu is cashing in on the popular figures he has picked for his top team, such as Benny Begin (son of the iconic Menahem Begin) and ex-chief of staff Moshe Yaalon as disenchanted defectors return to the Likud fold. If the figures hold up on Feb. 10, Netanyahu will be Israel’s next prime minister.

    Most strikingly, defense minister Ehud Barak is leading Labor, Israel’s founding party, to virtual eclipse with no more than 8-10 Knesset seats predicted. The party faithful are drifting leftward, boosting Meretz to an estimated seven seats.

     
  • Kurds in N. Iraq Receive Arms From Bulgaria

    Kurds in N. Iraq Receive Arms From Bulgaria

    Kurdish warlords importing arms from Bulgaria

    These weapons will be used by the Kurdish militias against the Turkmens, Assyrians and Arabs who are opposed to the Kurdification of the north of Iraq.

    BAGHDAD — Kurdish officials this fall took delivery of three planeloads of small arms and ammunition imported from Bulgaria, three U.S. military officials said, an acquisition that occurred outside the weapons procurement procedures of Iraq’s central government.

    The large quantity of weapons and the timing of the shipment alarmed U.S. officials, who have grown concerned about the prospect of an armed confrontation between Iraqi Kurds and the government at a time when the Kurds are attempting to expand their control over parts of northern Iraq.

    3 Planeloads of Munitions Worry Officials in Baghdad

    By Ernesto Londoño
    Washington Post Foreign Service
    Sunday, November 23, 2008; A01

    BAGHDAD — Kurdish officials this fall took delivery of three planeloads of small arms and ammunition imported from Bulgaria, three U.S. military officials said, an acquisition that occurred outside the weapons procurement procedures of Iraq’s central government.

    The large quantity of weapons and the timing of the shipment alarmed U.S. officials, who have grown concerned about the prospect of an armed confrontation between Iraqi Kurds and the government at a time when the Kurds are attempting to expand their control over parts of northern Iraq.

    The weapons arrived in the northern city of Sulaymaniyah in September on three C-130 cargo planes, according to the three officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information.

    Kurdish officials declined to answer questions about the shipments but released the following statement: “The Kurdistan Regional Government continues to be on the forefront of the war on terrorism in Iraq. With that continued threat, nothing in the constitution prevents the KRG from obtaining defense materials for its regional defense.”

    Iraq’s ethnic Kurds maintain an autonomous region that comprises three of the country’s 18 provinces. In recent months, the Shiite-led central government in Baghdad, which includes some Kurds in prominent positions, has accused Kurdish leaders of attempting to expand their territory by deploying their militia, known as pesh merga, to areas south of the autonomous region. Among other things, the Kurds and Iraq’s government are at odds over control of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, which lies outside the autonomous region, and over how Iraq’s oil revenue ought to be distributed.

    The Kurds of northern Iraq have run their affairs with increasing autonomy since 1991, when U.S. and British forces began enforcing a no-fly zone in northern Iraq to protect the region from President Saddam Hussein‘s military. The U.S.-led invasion in 2003 sparked concern that Iraqi Kurds would seek independence, but the Kurds have insisted that they wish to remain part of a federal Iraq.

    Neighboring countries with large Kurdish minorities, including Turkey and Iran, have said they would oppose the emergence of an independent Kurdistan, as the autonomous region is known.
    Iraq’s interior minister, Jawad al-Bolani, said in an interview that central government officials did not authorize the purchase of weapons from Bulgaria. He said such an acquisition would constitute a “violation” of Iraqi law because only the Ministries of Interior and Defense are authorized to import weapons.

    Experts on Iraq’s constitution said the document does not clearly say whether provincial officials have the authority to import weapons. However, Iraqi and U.S. officials said the Ministries of Interior and Defense are the only entities authorized to import weapons. The Defense Ministry provides weapons to the Iraqi army, and the Interior Ministry procures arms for the country’s police forces.

    The Iraqi government has acquired the vast majority of its weapons through the Foreign Military Sales program, a U.S.-run procurement system, Brig. Gen. Charles D. Luckey, who assists the Iraqi government with weapons purchases, said Saturday. He said he knew of no instances in which provincial authorities had independently purchased weapons from abroad.
    With thousands of American military officials involved in the training of Iraq’s security forces, there is little the U.S. government does not know about weapons that are legally imported to Iraq. The shipments from Bulgaria in September caught the American military off guard, the three officials said. They first learned of the shipments from a source in Bulgaria, the officials said.

    The three said they did not know whether U.S. officials had confronted Kurdish leaders about the shipments or alerted Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki‘s government.

    “Yes, the Kurds have this autonomous region and they’re authorized to keep the pesh,” one of the officials said, referring to the militia. “But arming themselves and bringing in weapons stealthily like that — if I were the Iraqi government, I’d be pretty concerned.”

    While violence in Iraq has decreased markedly in recent months, political tension is rising as Iraqi leaders gear up for provincial and national elections scheduled to take place next year, and as they prepare for an era in which the U.S. military will have a smaller presence there.
    Of the primary fault lines — which include tension between Sunnis and Shiites and rivalry among Shiite political parties — the rift between Kurds and the Arab-dominated Iraqi government has become a top concern in recent months. Senior government officials have engaged in a war of words, and Iraqi army and pesh merga units have come close to clashing.

    “You could easily have a huge eruption of violence in the north,” said Kenneth B. Katzman, a Middle East specialist at the Congressional Research Service in Washington. “Nothing having to do with the Kurds is resolved.”

    Because Arab Sunnis largely boycotted the 2005 election, Kurds obtained disproportionate political power in key provinces such as Tamim, which includes Kirkuk, and Nineveh. Both abut the Kurdish autonomous region. Kurds also control 75 of the 275 seats in parliament.

    This year, violence broke out in Kirkuk amid political squabbling over an Arab proposal that seats on the Tamim provincial council should be divided evenly among ethnic Arabs, Kurds and Turkmens. In the end, Iraqi lawmakers had to shelve plans to hold provincial elections in Tamim because the sides were unable to reach a deal.

    In August, U.S. officials narrowly averted an armed confrontation between an Iraqi army unit and pesh merga fighters in the town of Khanaqin, in Diyala province.

    In recent weeks, Maliki and Kurdish leaders have exchanged sharp words over Maliki’s creation of so-called support councils. Maliki has said the councils, which are made up of pro-government tribal leaders, are the central government’s eyes and ears in provinces. But Kurdistan Regional Government President Massoud Barzani and other Iraqi leaders have accused the prime minister of using the councils to bolster Maliki’s influence in areas where he has little political support. In a recent news conference, Barzani said Maliki was “playing with fire.”

    Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, who is a Kurd, recently sent Maliki a letter saying the money being spent on councils should go to the country’s armed forces.

    The pesh merga, which began as a militia controlled by powerful Kurdish families, fought Iraqi troops when Hussein was in power. Since the 2003 invasion, its primary role has been to patrol predominantly Kurdish areas in the north. However, pesh merga units were deployed to the northern city of Mosul in 2004 to help quell an insurgent uprising, and others were dispatched to Baghdad as part of the 2007 buildup of U.S. troops.

    Recently, the Iraqi government has refrained from using pesh merga forces outside of the Kurdish region and has taken steps to replace predominantly Kurdish forces with Sunni and Shiite soldiers in Nineveh, one of the most violent areas in Iraq.

    Central government officials recently bristled at Barzani’s offer to allow U.S. troops to establish bases in the Kurdish autonomous region, saying the regional government had no authority to make such an overture, especially as Iraqi officials are calling for a gradual withdrawal of U.S. troops.

    “There is a lot of tension,” Kurdish parliament member Mahmoud Othman said. “Maliki and his administration are accusing the Kurdish authorities of violating the constitution. And the Kurds are accusing Maliki of violating the constitution.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/22/AR2008112202297.html?referrer=emailarticle&sid=ST2008112300239&s_pos