Category: Syria

Syria a test case for democratic Turkey

The bloody and widespread crackdown on democracy protesters in Syria presents an opportunity for Turkey to reconsider its ‘zero problems’ foreign policy – and work with its NATO allies to change the ideological landscape of the Middle East.

By the Monitor’s Editorial Board / May 9, 2011

The increasingly violent crackdown on democracy protesters in Syria has become a test case for neighboring Turkey and its ties to the West.

As a member of NATO and the only democracy in the Muslim Middle East, Turkey has long boasted about “zero problems” on its borders. It actively sought to better ties with its neighbors, no matter their political persuasion. This approach has collected a string of successes, most notable Syria, with which Turkey almost went to war in 1998.

Since then, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has developed a warm friendship with Syria’s autocratic leader, President Bashar al-Assad. The two governments held joint cabinet meetings and military exercises. Trade surged.

But the limits of Turkey’s influence as a regional peace broker are now becoming clear. Despite Mr. Erdogan’s personal pressuring of Mr. Assad to reform, Syria’s forcible put-down and mass killing of hundreds of peaceful demonstrators has escalated to an alarming degree.

Similarly, after the democratic revolt began in Libya, Erdogan talked with Col. Muammar Qaddafi, offering him a plan to quit power and call elections. Mr. Qaddafi ignored him, though Turkey was instrumental in negotiations to free four New York Times journalists who had been detained by Libyan authorities.

Examples of “zero problem” failures extend further back in time: Turkey’s clumsy attempt to work out a nuclear-fuel arrangement with Iran; a severely strained relationship with Israel, in contrast to a time when Turkey had once facilitated Israeli-Syrian talks.

The reasons for Turkey’s limited success are multiple. Cornered dictators are not so easy to remove. As Erdogan said last week, he’s not sure whether Assad – who had appeared to be a reformer – has lost interest in change, or whether he is being overruled by others in his government.

Turkey also has tremendous stakes in preserving the status quo. For instance, it has billions of dollars in contracts to lose in Libya if Qaddafi falls. Turkey is also keenly aware of the threat of refugees pouring over its border if Syria collapses, and of the influence that Kurds in Syria could have on Kurd separatists in Turkey.

Perhaps it’s not merely a matter of preferring the status quo, but also of divisions within Turkey itself. Erdogan leads a mildly Islamist party, but secularists suspect his long-term intent is to defy Turkey’s strict separation of mosque and state. Is Erdogan perhaps a reluctant democrat? Turkish secularists, and NATO allies who complain of his overtures to Iran or his attacks on a free media, sometimes wonder.

Erdogan was ahead of the curve in calling for Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak to step down. But he has been slow to do the same for Qaddafi (he only called for it publicly last week), and likewise slow in his public condemnations of the Assad government. Neither he, nor the United States, by the way, has called for Assad’s ouster.

Turkey has an opportunity in Syria and other countries of the Arab Spring to stand much more firmly on the side of democratic protesters. True, there is only so much it can do. But it’s also not doing as much as it could.

What it really needs is to reassess its “zero problems” policy. That worked at a time of one-on-one crises with countries, and when the aim was to avoid conflict and improve business ties.

But there is an ideological sea change under way in the Middle East, and that requires a democracy like Turkey – as imperfect a model as it may be – to choose sides and stand squarely behind freedom advocates.

At this time in history, zero problems can no longer mean zero principles.

Turkey spent decades as a NATO member working with the West to contain the threat of Soviet communism. That was an ideological battle of great import to the progress of humanity.

Similarly, Turkey has a historic chance to swing solidly behind the democratic movement in the Middle East and North Africa. Hesitancy works to its detriment. It besmirches its credibility among protesters (Libyan rebels burned the Turkish flag because Ankara did not back the no-fly zone). Worse, its lack of definitive support makes it harder for democracy advocates to succeed.

As Turkey’s own president, Abdullah Gul, has written, “sooner or later the Middle East will become democratic.” Turkey, and its allies, must now make a strategic decision to back this movement – even when it’s inconvenient for them. And even at the risk of creating other problems.

via Syria a test case for democratic Turkey – CSMonitor.com.

May 10, 2011
Turkey Worries Syria’s Refugee Influx Could Cause Crisis

Hundreds of Syrian refugees have fled across the border into Turkey to escape the ongoing crackdown on anti-government protests. The influx has added to growing Turkish concerns that the deepening crisis in Syria could lead to the country facing a refugee crisis.

Nearly 250 Syrians recently crossed into Turkey seeking refuge.

Some belong to Syria’s Turkish minority, like this woman:

“My husband and I came because of the situation there,” she said. “Four people were killed in front of his eyes. So we ran away. All our lives are in danger.”

The refugees were housed in an indoor sports stadium, while a tent village was constructed by the Red Crescent Society.

With the crisis in Syria continuing to deepen, Turkish authorities are bracing themselves for more arrivals.

Turkish President Abdullah Gul, speaking on Monday, said Turkey is preparing to deal with a possible influx of refugees, saying authorities are taking measures to be ready for the worst-case scenario.

There are no entry restrictions on Syrians entering Turkey, following last year’s lifting of visa requirements by both countries.

Senior Turkish diplomat Selim Yenel says despite the crisis, there are no plans to suspend the agreement, at least for now.

“No, No, No, we hope this will not be the case, we are not in that situation right now,” said Yenel. “We do hope things will go on peacefully. That we are in close contact with Damascus. We are talking with them. And we are following things very closel, and therefore such a thing to happen.”

But its not only a potential refugee crisis that is causing increasing concern in Ankara. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan voiced his fear of a potential break up of Syria.

“Turkey definitely does not want a separation of Syria, said Prime Minister Erdogan. “And Syria should not allow any attempts that could pave the way for separation.”

Syria, like Turkey, has a restive Kurdish minority. Since 1984, the Turkish-based Kurdish rebel group, the PKK, has been fighting the Turkish state for greater cultural and political rights. According to international relations expert and columnist for a Turkish daily, Soli Ozel, the chaos in Syria offers the PKK a powerful impetus, especially as it has close ties with Syria’s own large Kurdish minority.

“Now a third of the fighters of PKK happened to be from Syria,” said Ozel. “If the country divides along sectarian or ethnic lines, possibility of a Kurdish desire for an independence in the north of Syria obviously is going to throw Turkey off balance.”

Turkey’s 800-kilometer border with Syria runs along its predominantly Kurdish southeast. And most of Syria’s Kurdish minority lives just on the other side of it.

According to analysts, Syrian President Bashir al-Assad has controlled his own Kurdish population with an iron fist. He is widely believed to be playing on Turkish fears that if that fist were relaxed, the Kurds would secede. But Syrian opposition groups are keen to stress that is just scaremongering.

Anas Abdah is head of the international branch of Damascus Declaration, an opposition umbrella group.

“Think this is very important for the Turkish people and Turkish leadership to understand, the fact that the Kurdish element in Syria, which is around 2 million, or about 9 percent of the population is not going to react in a way, which will mean a secession of Syrian land or any kind of problems with the neighbor, either Turkey or Iraq,” said Anas Abdah.

Political scientist Nuray Mert is suspicious of such assurances. She thinks that spreading regional turmoil may offer Kurds across the whole region a unique opportunity.

“Syrian Kurds are against the existing regime, the Iranian Kurds are against Ahmadinejad regime, and they may have some role in regime changes in the region,” said Nuray Mert. “And it empowers the PKK movement and Turkish Kurds’ political movement. Because anyway we have huge problems concerning Kurdish problem in Turkey.”

Observers warn that the prospect of Kurds in neighboring Iran and Syria, freed from oppressive regimes and joining their Iraqi counterparts, who already have substantial autonomy, could rekindle the dream for many Turkish Kurds of an independent state. For Ankara, that would be a nightmare.

via Turkey Worries Syria’s Refugee Influx Could Cause Crisis | Middle East | English VOA

May 4, 2011
How Syria and Libya Got to Be Turkey’s Headaches

By Pelin Turgut / Istanbul

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (R) speaks during a joint press conference with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan at al-Shaab palace in Damascus on October 11, 2010. Louai Beshara / AFP / Getty Images Read more:

With neighboring Syria in crisis, the Arab Spring has finally arrived on Turkey’s doorstep — and with it, one big headache for a government that has spent recent years staking its political fortunes on the region.

Since coming to power in 2002, the Islamic-rooted government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has sought to become a kingpin in the Muslim world, driven by shared religious sensibility and economic expansionism. Turkish ministers have jetted between Middle Eastern capitals, signing trade deals and political cooperation protocols even as long-standing efforts to join the European Union have cooled. Erdogan stepped up criticism of Israel and became a hero on Arab streets for it.

Called neo-Ottomanism by some, the new foreign policy was based on the maxim “zero problems with neighbors.” As long as trade flourished and business was good, the argument went, why couldn’t everybody just get along. Bashir Assad’s Syria — which shares a 700km border with Turkey — was a key player in this scenario. Although the two countries came to the brink of war in the late 1990s, they became close political allies under Erdogan. The two leaders holidayed together on the Turkish coast and last year, lifted visa restrictions on travel. Unlike the revolution in Egypt, where Erdogan was quick to denounce Hosni Mubarak and call for a handover, he has been largely silent on the current uprising in Syria. (See photos of the ongoing turmoil in Syria.)

That parallels Turkey’s response to the uprising in Libya, where Turkish companies had billions of dollars in construction contracts and some 25,000 workers. Libyan rebels have since accused Ankara — a NATO member — of supporting Muammar Gaddafi’s regime.

Yet, despite strong economic ties, Erdogan does not appear to have the ear of either Assad or Gaddafi. “Turkey styled itself as a ‘wise elder’ and role model in the region, but when push comes to shove, it has become apparent that it has little influence over what is happening,” says Soli Ozel, international relations professor at Bilgi University and a political columnist. “This is the point where Turkish foreign policy hits the wall.” (See Turkey’s call for change in Egypt.)

“In pursuing its economic interests in a region such as the Middle East, where the state is heavily involved in economic decision making, Turkey has had to create strong bonds with many — though not all — existing regimes, ” wrote Turkey expert Henri Barkey in an article for the Carnegie Endowment for Peace. “Paradoxically, these linkages have made Turkey into a status-quo power, unwilling to see dramatic change. And not surprisingly, first Libya, and now Syria, is creating serious headaches for Turkey.”

In addition to being a political embarrassment for Ankara and its ambitions, the worsening turmoil in Syria could have serious political consequences for Turkey — most worryingly, a mass influx of refugees across the border. Senior Turkish government negotiators traveled to Damascus on Thursday to urge reform, while the Turkey’s National Security Council met in Ankara to discuss the crisis. “It is important that necessary steps are taken rapidly and in a determined way in order to establish social peace and stability in brotherly, friendly Syria, to put an end to the violence and to maintain security of life, basic rights and freedoms,” a council statement said later.

Erdogan’s reticence in addressing the violent crackdowns on civilians in Libya and Syria has also sparked criticism that he has double-standards when he picks his fights. Just two years ago, he caused an international stir by vocally condemning Israel’s killing of civilians in Gaza. Relations with Israel never recovered: Turkey has not had an ambassador in Tel Aviv for months. “Turkey now finds itself very alone on the world stage,” says Ozel. “Relations with Europe have soured, and what will happen in the Middle East is uncertain. But it didn’t need to be this way.”

via How Syria and Libya Got to Be Turkey’s Headaches – TIME.

May 1, 2011
Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria to create common visa system?

By DINA AL-SHIBEEB

Al Arabiya

Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (R) shakes hands with Iraq's prime minister Nouri Al-Maliki during an official meeting in Tehran. (File Photo)

Iran’s president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (R) shakes hands with Iraq’s prime minister Nouri Al-Maliki during an official meeting in Tehran. (File Photo)

Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria are to establish a common visa system, the Russian agency Regnum quoted the Iranian vice-minister of tourism as saying on Tuesday.

The four states are preparing to install a “Schengen-like” regime, Shahbaz Yezdi said, in reference to Europe’s Schengen Zone. Under the system, one visa is issued and travelers can move between 25 of the European Union’s 27 countries without needing a visa for each country. The United Kingdom and Ireland do not subscribe to the Schengen system

Mr. Yezdi also said that the initiative was based on an idea of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey.

“Putting into place uniform visas for the four countries will actively boost the development of tourism,” Mr. Yezdi said.

In 2010, the currently embattled Syrian president Bashar al-Assad proposed a visa-free travel region for Syria, Iran, Turkey and other neighboring countries, and he said that he was the first to advent the issue starting with a visa-free travel between Turkey and Syria.

The fact that former foes Iraq and Iran would share a common system would be quite remarkable, especially in view of their bitter history. Iraq has fought Iran for eight years from 1980 to 1988.

But Iraq has since mended relations with Iran as both now have Shiite-dominated governments.

Just like Iran, Iraq raised its concern over troops from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia going to Bahrain as unrest by the Shiite-led opposition escalated. Iraq has joined Iran in describing the move as interference and against Bahrain’s sovereignty. But the Gulf countries see the threat against one Gulf country as a threat on all six.

Meanwhile, the six countries belonging to the Gulf Cooperation Council are also inching to cement their bloc. Recently the Gulf States’ economy and finance ministers initially agreed to lift hurdles for GCC nationals to own real estate in other Gulf States and to facilitate flow of capital money with the Gulf region.

GCC nationals now can enter other Gulf States only with an identity card. But unifying the region’s currencies still seems like a distant proposition.

Prior to the current unrest in Yemen, Turkey boosted its trade ties with the Qaeda-beleaguered country and lifted the visa requirement for the Yemeni nationals entering Turkey.

With the AKP conservative party winning election in 2002, it re-shifted Turkey’s foreign policy to look eastward toward the Middle East, but held its promise to help the country join the European Union (EU).

AKP, unlike its secular predecessor, carried more economically-friendly policies and sought to expand the country’s trade including tapping into the Middle East markets.

AKP also promised to democratize Turkey’s current constitution, which was originally drafted by the former military junta in 1980.

(Dina Al-Shibeeb of Al Arabiya can be reached at: [email protected])

via Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria to create common visa system?.

April 27, 2011
CIA director Leon Panetta made top-secret trip to Turkey

By JPOST.COM STAFF

04/26/2011 16:38

Leon Panetta, director of the US Central Intelligence Agency, made a highly confidential visit to Ankara in late March to discuss the unfolding situation in the Arab world.

During classified conversations with Turkish officials, Panetta and his staff called the riots in Libya a “crisis,” and the rising sentiment against Syrian President Bashar Assad was referred to as being at “a critical threshold.”

via CIA director Leon Panetta made top-secret trip to Turkey.

April 27, 2011
Turkey may be Syria’s best hope

From Monday’s Globe and Mail

A regime that fires on unarmed mourners at a funeral for children is sending a message that it will stop at nothing to hold power and rule as it sees fit. This was the message of Libya, and it is, predictably, the message of Syria.

The stage appears set for a prolonged conflict with escalating bloodshed. The Syrian protesters, though they have not yet taken over the public square, as in Egypt, are not likely to be deterred by such extreme violence, or to accept, in these circumstances, the promises of reform offered by the government of President Bashar al-Assad. And Mr. al-Assad’s patrons in Iran are not likely to countenance too many steps toward a democracy.

In this citizen journalism image made on a mobile phone and acquired Saturday April 23, 2011, by The Associated Press, Syrian anti-government protesters carry the coffin of an activist who was killed on Friday during his funeral procession in Quaboun near Damascus, Syria, Saturday, April 23, 2011. Syrian security forces fired on tens of thousands of mourners during funeral processions Saturday, killing several people following the deadliest day of the uprising against authoritarian President Bashar Assad. (AP Photo)

Where to, then? The West is tied up in Libya, as Mr. al-Assad is fully aware. The attacks on Syrian civilians would be a basis for invocation of the responsibility-to-protect doctrine at the United Nations, if only there were plausible means to apply that principle. But in contrast to Libya, there is no distinct region to protect, let alone a rebel army which could benefit from air support. Instead, the Syrian protesters are scattered throughout the country.

The Assad regime is subsidized by Iran, though not enamoured of its theocratic patron. The current crisis, however, is too awkward a time to engineer a switching of allegiances, such as a turn to the West linked to a compromise on the Golan Heights, now governed by Israel. In these circumstances, perplexing as well as horrific, there is no clear way forward.

But Turkey (which not long ago was on bad terms with Syria) may be the country best positioned to do some good. The government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made a point of busy diplomatic engagement with numerous – and ideologically diverse – nations. Mr. Erdogan and his colleagues ought to do their best to dissuade the Syrian government from further resort to slaughter. They can present to Mr. al-Assad the example of their own country’s healthy secular democracy with a largely Muslim population – a model that Syria could move toward.

via Turkey may be Syria’s best hope – The Globe and Mail.

April 25, 2011