Turkish Forum English

Category: Syria

Syria Blocks Turkey’s Ascent

Ariel Cohen

Turkey finds its “zero-problems-with-neighbors” foreign policy severely compromised by upheavals in the Arab world. Relations with some of its closest friends, such as Syria, appear to be irrevocably damaged.

Last Tuesday, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu held marathon talks in Damascus. He called on President Bashar Assad and his socialist-nationalist, Alawi-minority regime to stop the bloodshed. Yet still the blood flows.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Davutoglu face a complex regional and international environment. Their nine-year investment in friendship with the Assad regime is backfiring. In 2009, Turkey and Syria signed a strategic partnership agreement, conducted joint military maneuvers and were so close that their cabinets held joint meetings. Expanding influence in what used to be the Ottoman Eastern Mediterranean province of Shams, Turkey introduced visa-free travel with Syria, Lebanon and Jordan while inundating Syria with its goods, from foodstuffs to appliances.

What a difference an Arab Spring makes. Now Turkey is flooded with over 12,000 Syrian refugees. Hundreds of thousands may flee if the Assad crackdown escalates to a civil war.

Ankara is attempting to synchronize its foreign policy with Sunni Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, which pulled their ambassadors from Damascus. Turkey is hosting Syrian opposition conferences, while Davutoglu and Erdogan are demanding that Damascus stop the killing of civilians. Syria, they say, should implement the reforms “in 10-14 days.”

Fat chance. President Assad responded to Davutoglu’s mission by saying that Syria will continue “relentlessly fighting armed groups,” the regime’s term for protesters. Assad also offended Davutoglu by sending tanks to crush protesters near the Turkish border on the day of Davutoglu’s mision, while sending “only” a deputy foreign minister, not the Turkish Minister’s counterpart, to greet him at the airport.

Much of this entanglement is Turkey’s own handiwork. It attempted to position itself as a new regional superpower, supported Hamas and abandoned a strategic relationship with Israel. Erdogan played to the Arab “street,” enthusiastically calling for Egyptian president’s Housni Mubarak’s resignation. However, today, the Sunni “street”—which is 80 percent of Syria’s population—wants the secular and minority-Alawi Assad gone, and so do the members of the Arab League.

Yet if Turkey abandons the pro-Iranian Assad, which it is in the process of doing, it will face another strategic headache: a confrontation with Tehran. Until now Turkey played a sophisticated game of rapprochement with Syria’s Shi’a patron, increasing trade and lobbying for Iran in the international arena. However, the demise of the Assad clan may open a new avenue for the Sunni Turkish Islamic AK Party, which is also close to the Muslim Brotherhood, the largest opposition force in Syria and in Egypt.

And herein lies the rub. The Middle East historically has five power centers: three Arab (Cairo, Damascus, and Baghdad) and two non-Arab: Iran and Turkey. As one of these (Damascus) undergoes a meltdown, and two others (Cairo and Baghdad) are very weak, the remaining two non-Arab centers are doomed by history and geography to compete.

Recently Turkey stopped two shipments of Iranian weapons to Hezbollah of Lebanon, which were illegal under the UN sanctions. The Iranian media are now badmouthing Ankara as a “Western agent.”

Past hugs and kisses between Erdogan and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad notwithstanding, competition between Ankara and Tehran over Damascus and Beirut is on the rise.

Ankara’s “zero-problems-with-neighbors” policy is crumbling, fast—with Syria, Cyprus, Armenia, Israel and with the Kurds.

Fasten your seatbelts, Middle East observers. It’s going to be a rocky ride.

nationalinterest.org/commentary, August 17, 2011

August 17, 2011
NATO and Turkey Support Armed Rebels in Syria. Campaign to Recruit Muslim “Freedom Fighters”

by Michel Chossudovsky

The Western media has played a central role in obfuscating the nature of foreign interference in Syria including outside support to armed insurgents. In chorus they have described recent events in Syria as a “peaceful protest movement” directed against the government of Bashar Al Assad.

Recent developments in Syria point to a full-fledged armed insurgency, integrated by Islamist “freedom fighters”, supported, trained and equipped by NATO and Turkey’s High Command.

According to Israeli intelligence sources:

NATO headquarters in Brussels and the Turkish high command are meanwhile drawing up plans for their first military step in Syria, which is to arm the rebels with weapons for combating the tanks and helicopters spearheading the Assad regime’s crackdown on dissent. Instead of repeating the Libyan model of air strikes, NATO strategists are thinking more in terms of pouring large quantities of anti-tank and anti-air rockets, mortars and heavy machine guns into the protest centers for beating back the government armored forces. (DEBKAfile, NATO to give rebels anti-tank weapons, August 14, 2011)

The delivery of weapons to the rebels is to be implemented “overland, namely through Turkey and under Turkish army protection….Alternatively, the arms would be trucked into Syria under Turkish military guard and transferred to rebel leaders at pre-arranged rendez-vous.” (Ibid, emphasis added)

NATO and the Turkish High command, also contemplate the development of a jihad involving the recruitment of thousands of freedom fighters, reminiscent of the enlistment of Mujahideen to wage the CIA’s jihad (holy war) in the heyday of the Soviet-Afghan war:

Also discussed in Brussels and Ankara, our sources report, is a campaign to enlist thousands of Muslim volunteers in Middle East countries and the Muslim world to fight alongside the Syrian rebels. The Turkish army would house these volunteers, train them and secure their passage into Syria. (Ibid, emphasis added)

These various developments point towards the possible involvement of Turkish troops inside Syria, which could potentially lead to a broader military confrontation between the two countries, as well as a full-fledged “humanitarian” military intervention by NATO, which would be carried out in coordination with the Alliance’s support to the insurgency.

A detailed report on developments in Syria will be published shortly by Global Research

Global Research, August 15, 2011

August 16, 2011
Turkey’s Trial by Fire in the Middle East

By Özdem Sanberk, Director of USAK

Turkey has taken a position regarding the events underway in Syria that fits in with the existing general principles and practices of its foreign policy. The good relations with the Assad regime it promoted in years gone by do not entitle it to act contrary to the values underlying Turkish foreign policy in the process now under way.

Being an international role model implies, in one sense, that other countries make efforts to adopt your ways in accordance with the example you have set. Even if there are some among Turkey’s neighbours who are engaged in exactly that, Ankara itself is making no such claim pointing it out. Turkey is a country whose society and goverment have sought peace in their own region and the rest of the world for decades, and a country whose goal is steady development and prosperity.

Naturally, Turkey would also like to see the same developments toward peace and stability in Syria, its closest neighbour. Turkey also has a democratic multiparty parliamentary tradition which has operated for sixty years, and ultimately traces its roots back even further. Its experience is unique among countries in the world where majorities of people subscribe to the traditions of Islam.

We are just at the start of an arduous journey

Turkey is conscious of the fact that multiparty democracy will not settle down overnight among its neighbors to the south. Regardless, the fire which has broken out in Syria needs to be brought under control to minimize the damage, and the tragedy now being played out needs to be brought to a conclusion as quickly as possible. Syria is the country with which Turkey shares its longest land border and whose people are important to it. It is natural for Turkey to strategize how it can be of assistance in resolving Syria’s problems beginning with the humanitarian and security aspects.

It is not only Syria which is in flux: a massive movement for change is underway all across North Africa, or more precisely, across the entire Arab world. This transformation may last for decades, and it may well be that we have not yet even traversed the very first stage of it. Let us not forget that changes in Central and Eastern Europe after the breakup of the Soviet Union took ten years to complete, despite the political and economic opportunities the European Union made available. Deficiencies in the process are still visible as well. In the Arab world, there is no equivalent source of oxygen for the transformation process. In these difficult times, the Arabs have nothing like the Marshall Plan or an international system like the Council of Europe which might provide guidance on democratic matters. The peoples who live in this region are now only at the beginning of a long and winding road which will continue ahead of them for many years. The processes of democratic and economic development will play out in the Arab lands in a lengthy and arduous fashion. It is certainly an error to come up with hasty conclusions or quick judgments.

The role of the European Union and the United States

As the processes work themselves out, the pains suffered by the Arab peoples will not abate. Neighboring countries like Turkey will also have to expect their share of this instability and lack of security. That is why it is not surprising in the least that we are showing so much interest in the developments in our neighbor Syria. To a considerable extent, whether or not the transition process can be made easier is up to the attitudes adopted by America and Europe. President Barack Obama recently spoke of boosting economic progress in the region and opportunities for employment, in addition to the obligations of financial organizations. That was definitely a step in the right direction. However, could this be enough to stop the mass migration and put out the fire that is now burning away? So far there has been no word from Europe, which is the area most affected by mass migration. Is the European Union ready to adopt new policies on trade, aid, and investment to halt the migration and increase the gross national products of these countries—which are almost all former colonies of its member states—and reduce unemployment in them? Furthermore, until the Middle East dispute is resolved, can any peace process in the Middle East be successful? Israel, the US, and the UN all have responsibilities which hardly need to be mentioned.

Turkey is acting on the basis of its traditions

The problems of Syria have to be viewed inside a broad regional and international framework of politics, economics, and society. We fall into an error if we take the easy way out and treat them as just a sectarian Islamic conflict. Preferring to do the latter will not make it easier to find a solution.

Our neighbor Syria is experiencing major humanitarian problems. If it was not, its citizens would not be fleeing to Turkey in the thousands. Regrettably, blood has been spilt. In close proximity, Turkey feels their suffering.

When humanitarian aid is required, states do not wait to be asked. This rule is surely keeping with the basic values and traditions of Turkish foreign policy. The good relations developed with the Assad regime in the recent past do not lead to the conclusion that Turkey should behave differently and violate its basic values during the process now underway.

It’s clear that Turkey is not one of the contending sides in the dispute. Syria and the wishes of its people are one and the same for us. Whatever Islamic sect and ethnic group may be involved, the blood being shed is Syrian blood. Turkey’s position toward all Syrians is fraternal and treats them equally. It sees the troubles which Syria is experiencing as its own troubles. If any of our neighbors are in need, no matter who comes to our borders, Turkey will lend them a hand regardless.

The possibility of a civil war and any instability which could spill over into the rest of the region would mean tragedy for Syria and the Middle East as a whole. Following the elections, Turkish foreign policy in all aspects has focused on Syria. Humanitarian aid and economic support are among the two main instruments of diplomacy, and Turkey is continuing to carry out its obligations in the region. At this stage, Turkey is attempting to maintain honest and constructive relations with all the sides involved. That is simply what the Turkish people expect from their government.

*This article was firstly published in July issue of USAK’s monthly strategy journal ANALİST in Turkish.

www.turkishweekly.net, 9 August 2011

August 9, 2011
Turkey’s friendship with Syria nears breaking point

By Simon Cameron-Moore

ISTANBUL | Mon Aug 8, 2011 11:31am EDT

ISTANBUL (Reuters) – Turkey’s friendship with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stood near breaking point as Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu prepared to visit Damascus on Tuesday in a last-ditch effort to persuade Assad to stop his security forces attacking civilians.

On Sunday, one of Assad’s advisers warned Davutoglu would be given short shrift after Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said his minister would deliver a “decisive message,” having seen past entreaties to halt the violence ignored.

A Turkish official said Davutoglu would repeat the earlier calls. But the official did not want to venture into what Turkey will do if its words continue to fall on deaf ears in neighboring Syria.

Still, if Davutoglu returns empty-handed, Erdogan faces the prospect of ditching a friendship he has carefully nurtured over the past decade, leaving Assad more isolated and dependent on Iranian support than ever.

Bahadir Dincer, Middle East expert at the International Strategic Research Organization in Ankara, said he expected no change from the Syrian government given the comments from Damascus ahead of Davutoglu’s visit.

“Turkey will have to seriously consider its ties with Syria,” Dincer said. “It has been a white page for a decade now, The recent tension turned it grey, and we’ll see tomorrow if the relations are entering a red-page era.”

Having almost gone to war in the late 1990s over Syria harboring Kurdish militants, the friendship became a virtual poster-child for Erdogan’s foreign policy of “zero problems with neighbors.”

Erdogan has holidayed with Assad, their cabinets have held joint meetings, Turkey has become Syria’s biggest trading partner, the neighbors have visa-free travel between them, and Turkey tried to broker a peace deal between Syria and Israel.

NO GOING OUT ON A LIMB

The relationship with Syria has withered as Erdogan tried to encourage Assad, in vain, to make democratic reforms and end the repressive one-party rule of his Baath movement.

Events in the Arab Spring of popular protests, according to Sinan Ulgen in a paper published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, have shown Ankara now wants to be on the right side of history and is ready to stand up for issues like human rights even where it imperils ties with incumbent leaders.

The patience Erdogan has shown so far with Assad stands in contrast to the speed with which he advised Hosni Mubarak to quit as president of Egypt when street protests erupted there early this year, but that patience appears to have run out.

There is genuine outrage in Turkey, a largely secular Muslim country like Syria but also a multi-party democracy, over the brutal repression unleashed since pro-democracy demonstrations erupted in the neighboring Arab state last March.

In June, after more than 10,000 Syrians fled to Turkey to escape attacks by security forces, Erdogan described the killing of Syrian civilians as acts of savagery.

Yet, his government — like Syria’s Arab neighbors, however upset they have become about Assad’s behavior, underlined by the recall of several Gulf ambassadors on Monday — is unlikely to take any unilateral action against Damascus, according to analysts of Turkish foreign policy in the Middle East.

With the international community divided over what to do about Syria, Turkey is unlikely to go out on a limb, either through economic sanctions or military action.

“Turkey will not go to the lengths of unilateral economic sanctions. It has always argued that sanctions hurt people, not regimes,” said Semih Idiz, a columnist focused on foreign policy at Milliyet newspaper.

One big investment that could be vulnerable to a freeze in bilateral relations is a joint multi-billion-dollar dam project dubbed “Friendship Dam,” whose groundbreaking was attended by leaders of the two countries in February.

Turkey is also likely to resist any pressure to create a buffer zone inside Syrian territory, though it is reportedly a scenario that the Turkish military has made contingencies for.

“Turkey will not do anything unilateral militarily unless there is a massive spillover effect from what’s happening in Syria — a spillover of a humanitarian nature, or a threat to national security,” Idiz said.

Other analysts said Turkey should avoid being drawn into any military intervention in Syria just to please Western powers, as it would backfire on efforts to end ethnic Kurds’ long-running insurgency in southeast Turkey.

“Turkey may limit its trade and diplomatic ties with Syria. But, even if Turkey doesn’t take such steps, its clear message and attitude toward the Syrian administration will be a boost of morale to protesters,” Dincer said.

Syrians living in exile have flocked to Turkey, without any apparent encouragement from the Turkish government, for a series of meetings aimed at uniting opposition to Assad.

Any move by Turkish officials to engage the Syrian opposition would further alienate Damascus from Ankara.

And whereas Saudi Arabia withdrew its envoy to Damascus on Monday, Idiz doubted whether Turkey would want to be seen following Riyadh’s lead, lest its actions be seen through any sectarian prism.

Assad and the ruling clique in the Ba’athist Party hail from Syria’s minority Alawite community, a sect close to Iran’s dominant Shi’ites, while the majority of Syrians are Sunni.

Mostly Sunni Saudi Arabia sent troops to Bahrain in March to help stifle unrest among the emirate’s Shi’ite majority.

While most of Turkey’s population are also Sunni, it also has a small Alawite minority, and Erdogan’s government has steadfastly sought to avoid stirring sectarian issues.

Last Friday, Davutoglu said it was too soon to talk about asking the Syrian ambassador to Ankara to leave.

via Turkey’s friendship with Syria nears breaking point | Reuters.

August 9, 2011
Turkey begins work on a project to link Istanbul and Mecca by express train

The Turkish government has announced the beginning of work on a plan to restore the Hijaz raliway line built during the Ottoman era in the early 20th century which links Istanbul in Turkey to Mecca in Saudi Arabia.

Official Turkish media outlets reported that the plan begins with preparations of the Hijaz railway route in Turkey, Syria, and Jordan. The plan includes the launch of a high-speed train linking Istanbul and Mecca, reducing the distance between the two cities to 24 hours over a 2,200-kilometer railway.

The media reports noted that the train’s route will start in Istanbul and run via the Turkish cities of Adana and Othmaneya, before passing through Jordan with Medina as the train’s final destination.

The Turkish Railway General Manager, Soliman Kraman, expects the high-speed train to make its first trip in four years’ time, adding that it would carry more than two million passengers every year to the Holy Land for Hajj and Umrah, in addition to its role in enhancing trade between the countries in the region.

The Ottoman Sultan, Abdul Hameed II, approved the plan to build the railway in 1900. The train was launched eight years later, but it was damaged during World War I, and its construction was interrupted.

via Turkey begins work on a project to link Istanbul and Mecca by express train.

August 9, 2011
Turkey’s friendship with Syria nears breaking point

By Simon Cameron-Moore

ISTANBUL

(Reuters) – Turkey’s friendship with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stood near breaking point as Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu prepared to visit Damascus on Tuesday in a last-ditch effort to persuade Assad to stop his security forces attacking civilians.

On Sunday, one of Assad’s advisers warned Davutoglu would be given short shrift after Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said his minister would deliver a “decisive message,” having seen past entreaties to halt the violence ignored.

A Turkish official said Davutoglu would repeat the earlier calls. But the official did not want to venture into what Turkey will do if its words continue to fall on deaf ears in neighboring Syria.

Still, if Davutoglu returns empty-handed, Erdogan faces the prospect of ditching a friendship he has carefully nurtured over the past decade, leaving Assad more isolated and dependent on Iranian support than ever.

Bahadir Dincer, Middle East expert at the International Strategic Research Organization in Ankara, said he expected no change from the Syrian government given the comments from Damascus ahead of Davutoglu’s visit.

“Turkey will have to seriously consider its ties with Syria,” Dincer said. “It has been a white page for a decade now, The recent tension turned it grey, and we’ll see tomorrow if the relations are entering a red-page era.”

Having almost gone to war in the late 1990s over Syria harboring Kurdish militants, the friendship became a virtual poster-child for Erdogan’s foreign policy of “zero problems with neighbors.”

Erdogan has holidayed with Assad, their cabinets have held joint meetings, Turkey has become Syria’s biggest trading partner, the neighbors have visa-free travel between them, and Turkey tried to broker a peace deal between Syria and Israel.

NO GOING OUT ON A LIMB

The relationship with Syria has withered as Erdogan tried to encourage Assad, in vain, to make democratic reforms and end the repressive one-party rule of his Baath movement.

Events in the Arab Spring of popular protests, according to Sinan Ulgen in a paper published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, have shown Ankara now wants to be on the right side of history and is ready to stand up for issues like human rights even where it imperils ties with incumbent leaders.

The patience Erdogan has shown so far with Assad stands in contrast to the speed with which he advised Hosni Mubarak to quit as president of Egypt when street protests erupted there early this year, but that patience appears to have run out.

There is genuine outrage in Turkey, a largely secular Muslim country like Syria but also a multi-party democracy, over the brutal repression unleashed since pro-democracy demonstrations erupted in the neighboring Arab state last March.

In June, after more than 10,000 Syrians fled to Turkey to escape attacks by security forces, Erdogan described the killing of Syrian civilians as acts of savagery.

Yet, his government — like Syria’s Arab neighbors, however upset they have become about Assad’s behavior, underlined by the recall of several Gulf ambassadors on Monday — is unlikely to take any unilateral action against Damascus, according to analysts of Turkish foreign policy in the Middle East.

With the international community divided over what to do about Syria, Turkey is unlikely to go out on a limb, either through economic sanctions or military action.

“Turkey will not go to the lengths of unilateral economic sanctions. It has always argued that sanctions hurt people, not regimes,” said Semih Idiz, a columnist focused on foreign policy at Milliyet newspaper.

One big investment that could be vulnerable to a freeze in bilateral relations is a joint multi-billion-dollar dam project dubbed “Friendship Dam,” whose groundbreaking was attended by leaders of the two countries in February.

Turkey is also likely to resist any pressure to create a buffer zone inside Syrian territory, though it is reportedly a scenario that the Turkish military has made contingencies for.

“Turkey will not do anything unilateral militarily unless there is a massive spillover effect from what’s happening in Syria — a spillover of a humanitarian nature, or a threat to national security,” Idiz said.

Other analysts said Turkey should avoid being drawn into any military intervention in Syria just to please Western powers, as it would backfire on efforts to end ethnic Kurds’ long-running insurgency in southeast Turkey.

“Turkey may limit its trade and diplomatic ties with Syria. But, even if Turkey doesn’t take such steps, its clear message and attitude toward the Syrian administration will be a boost of morale to protesters,” Dincer said.

Syrians living in exile have flocked to Turkey, without any apparent encouragement from the Turkish government, for a series of meetings aimed at uniting opposition to Assad.

Any move by Turkish officials to engage the Syrian opposition would further alienate Damascus from Ankara.

And whereas Saudi Arabia withdrew its envoy to Damascus on Monday, Idiz doubted whether Turkey would want to be seen following Riyadh’s lead, lest its actions be seen through any sectarian prism.

Assad and the ruling clique in the Ba’athist Party hail from Syria’s minority Alawite community, a sect close to Iran’s dominant Shi’ites, while the majority of Syrians are Sunni.

Mostly Sunni Saudi Arabia sent troops to Bahrain in March to help stifle unrest among the emirate’s Shi’ite majority.

While most of Turkey’s population are also Sunni, it also has a small Alawite minority, and Erdogan’s government has steadfastly sought to avoid stirring sectarian issues.

Last Friday, Davutoglu said it was too soon to talk about asking the Syrian ambassador to Ankara to leave.

reuters.com, Aug 8, 2011

August 8, 2011