Category: Syria

Turkey Puts Syria Sanctions Back on Agenda

By MARC CHAMPION

ISTANBUL—Turkey’s delayed promise to levy sanctions against Syria is back on the agenda, with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan likely to announce them on a visit to refugee camps along the border “soon,” according to a senior Turkish official.

Turkey’s leaders, however, look set to go on moving cautiously even as they talk tough, because of the high domestic and regional high stakes involved, and Saturday’s Arab League decision to turn up the heat on Damascus is unlikely to change that calculus, analysts say.

Turkish officials are playing down the likely scope of any new sanctions, while long-rumored plans to create a military buffer zone inside Syrian territory are off the government’s agenda, “for now,” the Turkish official said.

On Saturday night, pro-regime protesters attacked Turkey’s embassy and consulates in Syria in response to the Arab League’s threat to suspend Syria’s membership and impose sanctions, underlining the extent to which relations between Ankara and Damascus have deteriorated. Turkey isn’t a member of the Arab League.

In a clear message to Damascus, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu responded by calling leaders of the Syrian opposition to meet him in Ankara for talks on Sunday evening. Turkey also sent a plane to evacuate the families of diplomats in Syria, issued a travel advisory against visiting the country and demanded guarantees from Damascus for the safety of its diplomats.

“We strongly condemn the deplorable attacks which took place yesterday night ” the foreign ministry said in a statement.

Until Syria’s President Bashar Al-Assad began a bloody crackdown against protesters eight months ago, Ankara was among his staunchest supporters. That changed dramatically by June, as Damascus ignored Turkish pressure to end the killing.

Ankara has responded by blocking weapons shipments to Syria from Iran and hosting Syria’s opposition leaders as well as commanders of the self-styled Free Syrian Army. But so far it has resisted joining the U.S. and the European Union in imposing broad economic sanctions.

Last month, Mr. Erdogan said he would announce a new package of sanctions when he visited Syrian refugee camps on the Turkish side the 900 kilometer border between the two countries on Oct. 9. The visit was canceled, however, when Mr. Erdogan’s mother died just two days before the planned visit.

Talk of sanctions then disappeared as Ankara became focused on more immediate threats. On October 20, Turkey sent some 10,000 troops to attack militants from the outlawed Kurdish Worker’s party, or PKK, on both sides if Turkey’s border with Iraq. Three days later, a major earthquake hit Van, on Turkey’s border with Iran.

“The prime minister has been planning to go to the camps…but because of the earthquakes, he hasn’t been able to,” said the senior Turkish official, who declined to be named. “He’ll probably make the trip soon, but we don’t yet have a date.”

Ankara’s caution in moving to take tougher action reflects a complex web of risks it faces on its eastern borders, analysts say. These include potential Syrian—and Iranian—support for the PKK, which has been fighting the Turkish state since 1984, at a cost of at least 30,000 lives. Turkey’s President Abdullah Gul has issued Damascus a public warning that consequences would follow should Syria help the PKK.

Meanwhile, Turkish businessmen near the border with Syria have lobbied against broad sanctions, unwilling to lose $2.4 billion in annual trade that has continued despite the unrest in Syria, according to Turkish trade statistics. And Turkish officials worry that broad sanctions could hurt ordinary Syrians, providing Mr. Assad with a propaganda victory.

At the same time, Turkey is trying to manage relations with Iran, as the two countries increasingly vie for influence in the region. But while Mr. Erdogan will likely keep more drastic measures against Damascus in reserve, Turkey is by now committed to removing Mr. Assad, according to Ilter Turan, professor of international relations at Istanbul’s Bilgi University.

That is because “as long as Assad is there, the road for Iran to extend its influence through the Middle East and the Mediterranean is open,” said Mr. Turan.

via Turkey Puts Syria Sanctions Back on Agenda – WSJ.com.

November 14, 2011
Former Iranian FM Urges Turkey Not to Give in to US, EU Pressures

TEHRAN (FNA)- Former Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki called on the Turkish officials to adopt an independent and transparent foreign policy and refrain from complying with the policies dictated by the US and the European countries.

“The Turkish rulers should correct their positions and make their foreign policy transparent before they lose the opportunity,” Mottaki said in an article on Sunday, adding that Turkey is not obliged to obey the US and EU-dictated policies, like what Saudi Arabia is doing.

He blasted Turkey’s position on the developments in Syria, and said Ankara thinks that it can comply with the US and EU aspirations and show paradoxical policies and attitudes through spending its political prestige and reputation.

Mottaki asked if Turkey claims to be an advocate of freedom of speech, why it only alleges to be a supporter of the Syrian people and does not support the Yemeni and Bahraini people’s demonstrations against the tyrannical rule of their governments.

Syria has been experiencing unrest since mid-March with organized attacks by well-armed gangs against Syrian police forces and border guards being reported across the country.

Hundreds of people, including members of the security forces, have been killed, when some protest rallies turned into armed clashes.

The government blames outlaws, saboteurs, and armed terrorist groups for the deaths, stressing that the unrest is being orchestrated from abroad.

But, calm was eventually restored in the Arab state after President Assad started a reform initiative in the country.

Earlier this month, Amin Hatit, a prominent retired Lebanese General and political analyst, said that Syria is now moving towards tranquility and stability, which means that Washington’s interfering policies have failed to undermine Bashar Assad’s government.

Speaking to FNA, Amin Hatit pointed to the decline in the number of unrests in Syria in recent weeks, and said that the Syrian government is now in full control over developments and the country is moving towards full calm and tranquility.

“The US interfering policies in Syrian affairs have sustained a heavy defeat because Washington had pinned much hope on its plots for toppling the Syrian ruling system,” Hatit stated.

via Fars News Agency :: Former Iranian FM Urges Turkey Not to Give in to US, EU Pressures.

November 14, 2011
What will decide the fate of Syria?

This story by Dmitry Sedov, political scientist, Strategic Culture Foundation expert, was published in International Affairs magazine.

The deeper the crisis in Syria, the more evident it becomes that its former ally, Turkey, has played its part in the process. As the only moderate Islamic NATO member state, Turkey has turned into a springboard for the Syrian opposition. Istanbul announced the creation of a Syrian national council, analogous to the Libyan NTC. Opposition members are actively collaborating with Turkish governmental bodies. Actually, Turkey homes a headquarters of Syrian immigrants who handle all those destructive policies at home. It was Turkey where the so-called Free Syrian Army (FSA) was formed to comprise Syrian deserters. A group of Syrian military men, who reside in a strictly protected refugee camp, have claimed responsibility for the killing of nine Syrian soldiers and an officer on Syrian territory. There is no doubt that the rebels were working off the debts owed to new bosses.

The Turkish authorities say that their relations with the FSA chief Riyad al-Asad and his army are ”purely humanitarian”, while a key task for Ankara there is to ensure security of the FSA members. Turkey’s Foreign Ministry seems to ignore the fact that collaboration with the FSA is the way to cause bloodshed in Syria and not ”to allow the army freely express their political views”.

The Turkish Foreign Ministry even held a press-conference for the FSA chief Riyad al-Asad, who said that his army was ”the leader of the Syrian nation” and would ”fight against the regime until stability and peace come”. At the conference al-Asad was accompanied by ten security guards, a sniper among them. When the conference was over, journalists were told that further contacts with the FSA chief were possible only through Turkey`s Foreign Ministry. Isn`t it the best proof of the FSA being a marionette organization? Apart from the FSA, there are dozens of other militant groups traveling across the Turkish-Syrian border and bringing death and chaos in their native countries.

Hugh Pope of the International Crisis Group thinks that Turkey has been preparing for a massive interference in Syrian domestic policy. He described the alliance of Turkey and the FSA ”a brand new territory”.

Meanwhile, Russia and China have managed to prevent Turkey from interfering into Syria`s home policies. Nevertheless, Ankara has all chances to undermine stability in the neighboring country. Turkey enjoys developed economic ties with Syria, which helps maintain relative stability in the area, for example, in Aleppo, where local businessmen receive big orders from Turkey. If Ankara imposes an economic blockade on Syria, Aleppo`s economy as well as that of other Syrian cities will face a serious blow.

What will Turkey gain from toppling the Assad regime? The answer is linked to the role of Islamic factor in Recep Erdogan`s policy. Islamization of countries affected by the Arab Spring movement, which was initiated by Saudi Arabia, could not but force Turkey to take a step in a similar direction. The Syrian opposition responded to Islamic rhetoric, which is very likely to undermine the position of Damascus. Islamic symbols are being widely used in street protesters in Syria. Trying to leave behind the Saudis, the Erdogan regime has advanced in orchestrating civil unrest in Syria.

It is worth mentioning that when tensions broke out in Syria, Bashar Assad sat down for talks with the opposition to try to improve the situation. He immediately announced reforms demanded by the opposition. Nevertheless, it became clear very soon that those were not reforms which Assad`s critics wanted but the decline of the existing regime. The situation resembles much of that in Libya, which offers us more reasons to suspect that a third country is involved in the conflict.

Supported from abroad, the Syrian opposition took the risk of open confrontation with the regime. Killing the rebels is now the only way to bring peace into the region, otherwise the locals will be again and again forced into clashes with the army. In the past few months, the number of rebels has increased several times, which means that a full-scale military operation is needed to fight against them. Meanwhile, the Assad regime has been carrying out only a defensive policy, thus allowing the rebels to implement their destructive ideas. If the Syrian government fails to announce an offensive, it will face the risk of sharing the fate of Muammar Gaddafi. Assad has no more options except sending troops to restive areas.

Some observers say that Assad lacks enough will to announce such hardline measures. It means that he should be replaced by a more decisive politician, who will be ready to repeat the operation of 1982 when Assad`s father ordered a crackdown on Muslim protesters in Hama. But it was just one restive city at the time, while today the unrest affects many towns all across Syria. So, despite this being a very difficult decision to make, it appears to be the only reasonable solution to the situation, otherwise Syria will face years of bloodshed.

Ankara expects to topple the Assad regime before a civil war begins. Evidently, Erdogan wants a moderate Islamic regime in Syria, which will turn this religiously diverse country into a puppet in the hands of Pan-Turkism. This initiative is likely to be backed in NATO since the alliance is not opposed to moderate Islamists in Damascus: ”controlled by Turkey” will mean ”controlled by NATO”.

The question is whether the Assad government will have the nerve to launch an offensive against the armed opposition? The answer will decide the country’s fate. Mr. Assad has recently announced that the “Libyan scenario” is unlikely to repeat in Syria.:”…Any similar scenario will cost dearly to its producers.”

Well, the problem is that ‘producers’ seem to be ready to pay a very high price…

November 10, 2011
Syria agrees to end crackdown, Arab League says

Cairo (CNN) — Syria has agreed to end its crackdown on anti-government demonstrations, pull troops from the streets and release prisoners jailed during months of protests, the Arab League announced Wednesday.

Yussef al-Ahmad, Syria's ambassador to the Arab League, attends a meeting in Cairo on Wednesday.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government agreed to “stop all violence from any side in order to protect the Syrian citizens,” Qatar’s foreign minister, Sheikh Hamad Bin Jasim, announced after an Arab League meeting in Cairo. The Syrians also agreed to allow Arab League observers and international journalists to into Syria and allow their freedom of movement “in order to witness and document the reality of the developments,” he said.

And in two weeks, they will launch a “national dialogue” moderated by the Arab League, he said.

In response, the Free Syrian Army — a group of military deserters who have helped defend anti-government protesters — said it would abide by the Arab League agreement “as long as the regime commits to the same.”

“And in the case that the regime falls short of meeting the Arab League requirements, we will be compelled to protect the protesters and work on bringing down the regime no matter how much that may cost us,” the group added in a post on its Facebook page.

Syria has made previous pledges to withdraw armed forces from civilian areas. But in some of those cases, they withdrew only armored units and left infantry in place, or returned after a brief pullout. Anti-government activists criticized those steps as efforts by al-Assad’s regime to buy time.

Syria also has made other moves aimed at defusing the protests, including plans to draft a new constitution, but they have failed to appease the demonstrators.

The Arab League declaration came amid reports of more than two dozen deaths across the country on Wednesday.

The Local Coordinating Committees of Syria, an opposition umbrella group, said four people were killed in the suburbs of Damascus, while 21 were killed in the northern province of Homs.

Snipers were deployed in the city of Homs to enforce a curfew, while artillery fire continued in Hama, the group reported. And the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said government forces used tanks and heavy weapons to disperse a large demonstration in al-Hula, while military deserters killed three pro-government “thugs” blamed for killing 11 people at a factory Wednesday morning.

CNN cannot independently verify the reports because the Syrian government has limited access to international news organizations.

Syria is one of several Middle Eastern and North African states swept up in the “Arab Spring” revolts that began in January in Tunisia. The United Nations estimates that more than 3,000 people have died in Syria since unrest broke out in mid-March, when protesters began calling for the end the 40-year-old al-Assad regime.

CNN’s Nada Husseini and Arwa Damon and journalist Ian Lee contributed to this report.

via Syria agrees to end crackdown, Arab League says – CNN.com.

November 3, 2011
Why Syria and Iran are becoming Turkey’s enemies, again

Demonstrators shout slogans and wave Turkish flags on October 23, 2011 during a protest in central Ankara against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) after the separatist group’s guerrillas killed 24 soldiers and wounded 18 along the Iraqi border on October 19, 2011, the army’s biggest losses since 1993. (Getty Images)

08:28 PM ET

Why Syria and Iran are becoming Turkey’s enemies, again

Editor’s Note: Soner Cagaptay is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and is the co-author, with Scott Carpenter, of Regenerating the U.S.-Turkey Partnership.

By Soner Cagaptay – Special to CNN

The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) will dominate the news in the coming days. The PKK, a group known for its violent attacks against Turkey, is fast becoming part of the new trilateral power game between Turkey, Iran and Syria as Bashar al Assad crackdowns on demonstrators in his country.

In the 1990s, Iran, whose authoritarian regime disliked secular Turkey next door, asked Syria to harbor the PKK so it could attack Ankara to hurt Turkey’s standing as the political antidote of Iran.

Then, Turkey, Iran and Syria all became friends with the rise of the Justice and Development Party (AKP)party in Turkey. The PKK issue disappeared, or so it appeared.

Turkey and Syria started a dialogue after Ankara forced the Assad regime to stop harboring the PKK. Turkey massed troops on its border with Syria in 1998. Turkey did not fire a single bullet, but the very credible threat of use of force convinced Assad to change his behavior –

Then with the start of the Iraq War in 2003, Turkey and Iran became, in a sense, friends. Alarmed by the U.S. military presence to its east in Afghanistan and to its west in Iraq, Tehran concluded that it needed to win its neighbor Turkey to break the grip of the U.S.-led ring of isolation forming around it. Iranian support for the PKK ended, as if cut with a knife, the day U.S. troops started landing in Iraq.

Eight years later, Tehran is re-evaluating its strategic environment. With U.S. troops leaving Iraq and Iran gaining influence there, Tehran feels that it can act differently towards Turkey.

Meanwhile, Turkey emerged as the key opponent of the Syrian regime’s brutal crackdown. It has threatened action against Assad if the killing does not stop. In response, Damascus has decided to make things difficult for Turkey. U.S. and Turkish officials suggest that the Syrian regime once again allows PKK activity on its territory.

Since Damascus knows that it would almost certainly face a Turkish invasion if it were to allow PKK attacks from its territory into Turkey, it has turned to its ally Tehran for assistance.

Tehran, already annoyed that Turkey is trying to push it out of Iraq, has been glad to help. Iran desperately needs to end Turkey’s policy of confronting Assad. If not countered, this policy will usher in the end of the Assad regime in Syria, costing Iran its precious Levantine client state. Hence, Iran’s age-old strategy against Turkey has been resuscitated: using the PKK to attack Ankara from another country in order to pressure Turkey.

Accordingly, since the beginning of the summer, the PKK has attacked Turkey from Iraq, killing almost 100 Turks as well as kidnapping dozens of people.

Thus forms the Middle Eastern “PKK circle:” the more people Assad kills, the more hardline Turkey’s policies will become against Syria. This will, in turn, drive Iranian-Syrian action against Turkey through PKK attacks from Iraq. PKK attacks will rise.

Turkey, Iran and the Assad regime are locked in a power game over Syria’s future. Either Ankara will win and Assad will fall, or Tehran will win and Ankara, hurt by PKK attacks, will throw in the towel and let Syria be.

The views expressed in this article are solely those of Soner Cagaptay.

Post by: Soner Cagaptay

via Why Syria and Iran are becoming Turkey’s enemies, again – Global Public Square – CNN.com Blogs.

October 31, 2011
Turkey Shelters Anti-Assad Group, the Free Syrian Army

By LIAM STACK

Ed Ou for The New York Times Col. Riad al-As'aad defected from the Syrian military.

ANTAKYA, Turkey — Once one of Syria’s closest allies, Turkey is hosting an armed opposition group waging an insurgency against the government of President Bashar al-Assad, providing shelter to the commander and dozens of members of the group, the Free Syrian Army, and allowing them to orchestrate attacks across the border from inside a camp guarded by the Turkish military.

The support for the insurgents comes amid a broader Turkish campaign to undermine Mr. Assad’s government. Turkey is expected to impose sanctions soon on Syria, and it has deepened its support for an umbrella political opposition group known as the Syrian National Council, which announced its formation in Istanbul. But its harboring of leaders in the Free Syrian Army, a militia composed of defectors from the Syrian armed forces, may be its most striking challenge so far to Damascus.

On Wednesday, the group, living in a heavily guarded refugee camp in Turkey, claimed responsibility for killing nine Syrian soldiers, including one uniformed officer, in an attack in restive central Syria.

Turkish officials describe their relationship with the group’s commander, Col. Riad al-As’aad, and the 60 to 70 members living in the “officers’ camp” as purely humanitarian. Turkey’s primary concern, the officials said, is for the physical safety of defectors. When asked specifically about allowing the group to organize military operations while under the protection of Turkey, a Foreign Ministry official said that their only concern was humanitarian protection and that they could not stop them from expressing their views.

“At the time all of these people escaped from Syria, we did not know who was who, it was not written on their heads ‘I am a soldier’ or ‘I am an opposition member,’ ” a Foreign Ministry spokesman said on the condition of anonymity in keeping with diplomatic protocol. “We are providing these people with temporary residence on humanitarian grounds, and that will continue.”

At the moment, the group is too small to pose any real challenge to Mr. Assad’s government. But its Turkish support underlines how combustible, and resilient, Syria’s uprising has proven. The country sits at the intersection of influences in the region — with Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Israel — and Turkey’s involvement will be closely watched by Syria’s friends and foes.

“We will fight the regime until it falls and build a new period of stability and safety in Syria,” Colonel As’aad said in an interview arranged by the Turkish Foreign Ministry and conducted in the presence of a Foreign Ministry official. “We are the leaders of the Syrian people and we stand with the Syrian people.”

The interview was held in the office of a local government official, and Colonel As’aad arrived protected by a contingent of 10 heavily armed Turkish soldiers, including one sniper.

The colonel wore a business suit that an official with the Turkish Foreign Ministry said he purchased for him that morning. At the end of the meeting, citing security concerns, the colonel and a ministry official advised that all further contact with his group be channeled through the ministry.

Turkey once viewed its warm ties with Syria as its greatest foreign policy accomplishment, but relations have collapsed over the eight months of antigovernment protests there and a brutal crackdown that the United Nations says has killed more than 3,000 people.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey was personally offended by Mr. Assad’s repeated failure to abide by his assurances that he would undertake sweeping reform. Turkish officials predict that the Assad government may collapse within the next two years.

“This pushes Turkish policy further towards active intervention in Syria,” said Hugh Pope, an analyst with the International Crisis Group. He called Turkey’s apparent relationship with the Free Syrian Army “completely new territory.”

via Turkey Shelters Anti-Assad Group, the Free Syrian Army – NYTimes.com.

October 28, 2011