Category: Syria

The Arab League’s suspension of Syria has outraged Assad, but it is Ankara’s hardline stance that may yet prove decisive

The Arab League’s unexpectedly tough action in suspending Syria, ostracising President Bashar al-Assad, and inviting opposition leaders to talks in Cairo has outraged the regime in Damascus, which suspects a US-led conspiracy to impose forcible regime change. But the increased hostility exhibited by Turkey, Syria’s most powerful and best-connected neighbour, may yet prove decisive as Ankara assumes a crisis leadership role.

Until the uprising tore apart old certainties, the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, had invested considerable capital in improved ties with Syria, with which Turkey almost went to war in the 1990s. A turning point came with the 2004 free trade agreement. This interdependence now gives Turkey significant economic leverage. Ankara has already imposed unilateral sanctions and is considering additional measures including a cut in electricity supplies.

Erdogan turned the screw again this week, accusing Assad personally of “feeding on blood” after he failed to honour the Arab League peace plan. “No regime can survive by killing or jailing,” he said. “No one can build a future over the blood of the oppressed.”

Turkey’s motives are not difficult to discern. Chaos on its fragile southern flank, and Syria’s possible descent into civil war, would be reasons enough to prompt Ankara’s intervention. But Erdogan was also incensed by weekend attacks on Turkey’s embassy in Damascus and regional consulates, apparently orchestrated by the regime. The government issued a formal protest and advised Turks against travel to Syria, a reversal of its proud open-borders policy.

Turkey also appears motivated by a desire to keep ahead of evolving Arab opinion. “It can comfortably be said, in light of recent developments, that the countdown to the end of Syria’s Assad regime has begun,” said Today’s Zaman columnist Bülent Kenes, reflecting official opinion.

With senior Saudi officials and King Abdullah of Jordan openly backing the revolt, and the violence escalating, Erdogan and his foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, who have long harboured regional leadership ambitions, seem to be positioning themselves for a post-Assad future.

In this push towards the Syrian endgame they plainly have the enthusiastic backing of the US, for whom they are effectively acting as a local proxy in opposition to external actors such as the pro-regime Russia. Given Erdogan’s sharp differences with Washington over Israel-Palestine and the Iraq war, this coincidence of view is not lacking in irony. “We very much welcome the strong stance that Turkey has taken and believe it sends a critical message to President Assad that … he should step down,” said Ben Rhodes, Barack Obama’s deputy national security adviser.

In a series of statements, Davutoglu has insisted it is “no longer possible to trust the Syrian government”. Adding provocation to insult, he underscored Ankara’s support for the protesters and specifically for the Syrian National Council, an opposition umbrella group based in Turkey that is seeking recognition from Ankara. “We will continue to take our place at the side of the Syrian people’s rightful struggle,” Davutoglu said.

As bilateral tensions rise, suggestions that Turkey may physically intervene in northern Syria to create a safe haven for civilians displaced by the violence are likely to resurface. Several thousand Syrian refugees are already sheltering inside Turkey, as are numerous Syrian army defectors. Possibly anticipating Syrian retaliation, the newspaper Hürriyet reported that President Abdullah Gül recently warned Assad would pay a heavy price for stirring up trouble in Turkey’s Kurdish south-east.

Fears that a Syrian meltdown could seriously destabilise the wider neighbourhood are also driving Turkey’s hardening response. Such a scenario could affect Iraq, where security concerns are rising as the US withdrawal nears completion, and even Iran, a close Assad ally.

For its part, the Syrian regime has pressing reasons to fear Ankara’s animosity, as Gökhan Bacik pointed out in Today’s Zaman. Unlike many Muslim countries, Turkey identifies strongly with Europe, the US and Nato. And in the past decade, Erdogan’s Justice and Development party has made its brand of moderate Islamist politics acceptable to previously blinkered western eyes.

In other words, Turkey, with its majority Sunni Muslim population, furnishes a role model for the disenfranchised Sunni majority in Syria (and other Arab spring countries). Not only is Ankara encouraging revolution in Damascus, it is also living proof that Assad’s politics of fear are outdated, that Syrians have before them a workable alternative paradigm, and that, after the revolution, the country’s secular, Islamist and other sectarian traditions could fairly hope to co-exist peacefully, Turkish-style.

via Turkey has a key role in Syria – now and in the future | Simon Tisdall | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk.

This story by Dmitry Sedov, political scientist, Strategic Culture Foundation expert, was published in International Affairs magazine.

The deeper the crisis in Syria, the more evident it becomes that its former ally, Turkey, has played its part in the process. As the only moderate Islamic NATO member state, Turkey has turned into a springboard for the Syrian opposition. Istanbul announced the creation of a Syrian national council, analogous to the Libyan NTC. Opposition members are actively collaborating with Turkish governmental bodies. Actually, Turkey homes a headquarters of Syrian immigrants who handle all those destructive policies at home. It was Turkey where the so-called Free Syrian Army (FSA) was formed to comprise Syrian deserters. A group of Syrian military men, who reside in a strictly protected refugee camp, have claimed responsibility for the killing of nine Syrian soldiers and an officer on Syrian territory. There is no doubt that the rebels were working off the debts owed to new bosses.

The Turkish authorities say that their relations with the FSA chief Riyad al-Asad and his army are ”purely humanitarian”, while a key task for Ankara there is to ensure security of the FSA members. Turkey’s Foreign Ministry seems to ignore the fact that collaboration with the FSA is the way to cause bloodshed in Syria and not ”to allow the army freely express their political views”.

The Turkish Foreign Ministry even held a press-conference for the FSA chief  Riyad al-Asad, who said that his army was ”the leader of the Syrian nation” and would ”fight against the regime until stability and peace come”. At the conference al-Asad was accompanied by ten security guards, a sniper among them. When the conference was over, journalists were told that further contacts with the FSA chief were possible only through Turkey`s Foreign Ministry. Isn`t it the best proof of the FSA being a marionette organization? Apart from the FSA, there are dozens of other militant groups traveling across the Turkish-Syrian border and bringing death and chaos in their native countries.

Hugh Pope of the International Crisis Group thinks that Turkey has been preparing for a massive interference in Syrian domestic policy. He described the alliance of Turkey and the FSA ”a brand new territory”.

Meanwhile, Russia and China have managed to prevent Turkey from interfering into Syria`s home policies.  Nevertheless, Ankara has all chances to undermine stability in the neighboring country. Turkey enjoys developed economic ties with Syria, which helps maintain relative stability in the area, for example, in Aleppo, where local businessmen receive big orders from Turkey. If Ankara imposes an economic blockade on Syria, Aleppo`s economy as well as that of other Syrian cities will face a serious blow.

What will Turkey gain from toppling the Assad regime? The answer is linked to the role of Islamic factor in Recep Erdogan`s policy. Islamization of countries affected by the Arab Spring movement, which was initiated by Saudi Arabia, could not but force Turkey to take a step in a similar direction. The Syrian opposition responded to Islamic rhetoric, which is very likely to undermine the position of Damascus. Islamic symbols are being widely used in street protesters in Syria. Trying to leave behind the Saudis, the Erdogan regime has advanced in orchestrating civil unrest in Syria.

It is worth mentioning that when tensions broke out in Syria, Bashar Assad sat down for talks with the opposition to try to improve the situation. He immediately announced reforms demanded by the opposition. Nevertheless, it became clear very soon that those were not reforms which Assad`s critics wanted but the decline of the existing regime. The situation resembles much of that in Libya, which offers us more reasons to suspect that a third country is involved in the conflict.

Supported from abroad, the Syrian opposition took the risk of open confrontation with the regime. Killing the rebels is now the only way to bring peace into the region, otherwise the locals will be again and again forced into clashes with the army. In the past few months, the number of rebels has increased several times, which means that a full-scale military operation is needed to fight against them. Meanwhile, the Assad regime has been carrying out only a defensive policy, thus allowing the rebels to implement their destructive ideas. If the Syrian government fails to announce an offensive, it will face the risk of sharing the fate of Muammar Gaddafi. Assad has no more options except sending troops to restive areas.

Some observers say that Assad lacks enough will to announce such hardline measures. It means that he should be replaced by a more decisive politician, who will be ready to repeat the operation of 1982 when Assad`s father ordered a crackdown on Muslim protesters in Hama. But it was just one restive city at the time, while today the unrest affects many towns all across Syria. So, despite this being a very difficult decision to make, it appears to be the only reasonable solution to the situation, otherwise Syria will face years of bloodshed.

Ankara expects to topple the Assad regime before a civil war begins. Evidently, Erdogan wants a moderate Islamic regime in Syria, which will turn this religiously diverse country into a puppet in the hands of Pan-Turkism. This initiative is likely to be backed in NATO since the alliance is not opposed to moderate Islamists in Damascus: ”controlled by Turkey” will mean ”controlled by NATO”.

The question is whether the Assad government will have the nerve to launch an offensive against the armed opposition? The answer will decide the country’s fate. Mr. Assad has recently announced that the “Libyan scenario” is unlikely to repeat in Syria.:”…Any similar scenario will cost dearly to its producers.”

Well, the problem is that ‘producers’ seem to be ready to pay a very high price…