Category: Syria

  • The Road to Hell: Libya and Now Syria?

    The Road to Hell: Libya and Now Syria?

    By Jeremy Salt – Ankara

    The report just issued by the UN Human Rights Council’s ‘independent international commission of inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic’ is now being passed along the line to the UN Security Council, with the recommendation by the UN Human Rights Commissioner, Navi Pillay, that the Syrian government be referred to the International Criminal Court for prosecution.

    In its terms of reference the commission describes itself as a ‘fact-finding body’ based on the standard of ‘reasonable suspicion’. Yet if there is anything that characterizes this document, it is the lack of attention to fact.  The report is based on accusations, allegations and claims against the Syrian government which it does not even attempt to verify. It repeats the claim that the Syrian government’s security forces are responsible for the deaths of 3500 people –  the figure usually given –  when there is strong prima facie evidence  that a large number of the dead,   civilians as well as soldiers, have been the victims of armed gangs operating across the country.  It does not even say where it picked up this figure, since increased to 4000 by Navi Pillay, or whether it has any independent evidence that it is accurate.

    Two central questions needed to be dealt with if this commission wanted to get at the facts. First, how much truth is there in the allegations being made against the Syrian government and its security forces? Here the commission records the allegations but makes no attempt to verify them.  Thus the fact remains unknown.  Second, how much truth is there in the allegations made by the Syrian government? Here the commission does not even deal with the allegations. Despite this bias, the result is the same: the fact remains unknown.

    The commission says it interviewed 223 victims and witnesses of alleged human rights violations, ‘including civilians and defectors from the military and security forces’. It does not say who these people are, where it got their names from, why they were chosen and who covered the costs of their travel and accommodation. It indicates that other sources of its information include ‘non-government organizations, human rights defenders, journalists and experts’. As this same group is the source of many of the unsubstantiated  if not patently false accusations (i.e. dead people who have turned up alive) appearing in the mainstream media, it is obviously important to know precisely which organizations and individuals helped the commission and what the information was that they supplied, but the commission does not say.

    The commission regrets that the Syrian government, ‘despite many requests’, failed to engage in dialogue ‘and grant the commission access to the country’. But as the Syrian government points out, in a letter printed as an annex to this report, it had established its own Independent Special Legal Commission, with sub-commissions operating across Syria since the end of March, and therefore would not be able to provide the UN commission with the material it wanted until it had concluded its own inquiries. However, because it could not accommodate itself to the commission’s timetable, it is accused of failing to cooperate.

    On September 12 the president of the Human Rights Council (Laura Dupuy Lasserre) appointed three ‘high level experts’ as members of the commission of inquiry: Paulo Pinheiro (chairman), Yakin Ertürk and Karen Koning AbuZayd. They were required to produce their report by the end of November, with an update to be handed in by March, 2012. There is no indication of why the end of November was chosen for the deadline and not December or January, giving the commission more time to investigate the allegations being made. The time frame was extremely constricted given the work load. Within the space of six weeks (end of September to the middle of November), 223 witnesses were interviewed and a report prepared. The commission’s mandated task was ‘to investigate all alleged violations of international human rights law since March 2011 in the Syrian Arab Republic, to establish the facts and circumstances that may amount to such violations and of the crimes perpetrated and where possible to identify those responsible with a view of ensuring that perpetrators of violations, including those that may constitute crimes against humanity, are held accountable’.  This clearly could not be done in six weeks.  The apparent rush to get the report out will raise questions in many minds about timing, given the way in which the net is being closed around the Syrian government by those who want to bring it down.

    The commission presents one side of the story throughout. For virtually every claim it makes there is a counter narrative which it ignores. One such claim involves the use of snipers. The commission says or implies that they were state security forces. There is countervailing evidence of armed civilians shooting at demonstrators to throw the blame on to the state. Perhaps there is truth in both versions, but both versions needed to be considered. The fact remains that the identity of these snipers is not known.

    The report alleges that roadblocks and security checks were set up to prevent people from joining demonstrations but makes no mention of allegations of roadblocks being set up by armed gangs and the consequent kidnapping and killing of civilians. It refers to killings and arrests at Jisr al Shughur but not the evidence of the massacre of soldiers and civilians around the town in July: even if only prima facie it deserved to be considered. It produces claims of torture and killing ‘reportedly’ taking place in Homs military hospital ‘by security forces dressed as doctors and allegedly acting with the complicity of medical personnel’. Such a serious charge surely needs more to back it up than ‘reportedly’. The report mentions the raid on a mosque in Dar’a early in the protest movement but not the stockpile of weapons found there. It refers to the torture and murder in custody of two teenage boys and claims that up to November 9, ‘reliable sources’ indicated that 256 children had been killed by state forces. This is such a serious accusation that some corroborative evidence was needed but there is nothing, not the name even of one of these children and not the circumstances in which they were allegedly killed.

    It quotes a ‘defector’ (no evidence that this person actually is one) as being told by his commander to ‘disperse the crowd or eliminate everybody including children’.  There is no supporting evidence for this accusation. The state security forces are accused of rape but there is no mention of the cases of rape reported by the Syrian authorities to have been committed by armed gangs as part of their project to terrorize and intimidate the civilian population. The army is accused of using tanks and heavy weapons against residential buildings. These accusations are denied by the government. Furthermore, if they were used, were the civilians inside those buildings armed and shooting at the army, as seems to have been the case at Homs and probably elsewhere? The commission does not mention the use of heavy weapons by armed men against the army. Apparently it has not seen the videos of the charred bodies of soldiers lying beside burnt-out tanks. The commission’s statement that it is ‘aware of acts of violence committed by demonstrators’ is a minor point besides the violence of the armed gangs. The substantial body of evidence of their crimes surely needed to be considered if the human rights of all Syrians and not just those who have died at the hands of state security forces are to be taken into account.

    In short, this report does not even meet its own ‘lower standard of proof’. In fact, and this seems to be the only fact insofar as this report is concerned, there is little proof of anything. The commission perhaps needed to be reminded that the ‘defectors’ and the Syrian National Council do not represent the Syrian people. Bashar al Assad’s personal popularity plays out well for his government amongst a normally skeptical people. His face has been the focal point of demonstrations of support by millions of people in recent months. If anything, sanctions imposed by the US, the EU, the Arab League and Turkey, along with the constant threat of force, seem to have strengthened public support for Bashar and his government. The commission certainly would have had no difficulty in finding Syrians prepared to come to Geneva to tell another side of the story. Apparently there was no room for them and no interest in what they had to say.

    We have just seen what has been done to Libya in the name of human rights and the ‘responsibility to protect’. Uncounted thousands of Libyans were killed in eight months of bombing and missile attacks by French, British and American warplanes. There is prima facie evidence that war crimes were committed but there is not even the suggestion that someone will be held accountable. Further back stands Iraq, invaded in 1991 and then subjected to a decade of sanctions which ended the lives of about one million Iraqis, including hundreds of thousands of children. The second war launched in 2003 brought the overall civilian death toll since 1991 to somewhere between 1.5 and two million Iraqis. Again, prime facie evidence of war crimes and crimes against humanity without any of the perpetrators being punished. The kind of lies told before the attacks of 1991 (babies being thrown out of their incubators in Kuwait) and 2003 (weapons of mass destruction) were duplicated in the propaganda war which preceded the aerial assault on Libya this year (mass killing and Viagra-fuelled rape).

    To their eternal shame, the Arab League and governments which sell themselves on their Muslim credentials took part in or came in behind this war on a Muslim country by three non-Muslim governments. Now a third Arab country is being laid out on the chopping board, not in North Africa but at the very heart of the Middle East. The US, France, Britain and their Arab allies can sense that a momentous victory is at hand and they are pushing as hard as they can, using every weapon at their disposal. At the end of the road lies the possibility of  armed  intervention through the declaration of a ‘no fly’ zone and a cross-border operation to establish a ‘buffer zone’ or what the French Foreign Minister, Alain Juppé, prefers to call a ‘humanitarian corridor’. These are propaganda phrases, of course. What the advocates of intervention are talking about is war and everything it entails – widespread destruction and the death of thousands of people.

    Reconstructed Syria’s future is already being written. A leading figure in the Syrian National Council, Burhan Ghaliun, has said that a new government would break relations with Iran and would overturn the present strategic relationship with Hizbullah. The connections of other members of this council with the Gulf States, the US State Department and Israel’s lobbyists in Washington are further evidence of how Syria is to be remolded if the present government can be brought down. Short of the toppling of the Islamic government in Iran, it would be hard to think of a greater triumph for ‘the West’ and its reactionary allies across the Middle East, not to mention the benefits for Israel. Are those Arabs joining the chorus against the Syrian government in the name of human rights even thinking about this?

    – Jeremy Salt teaches the history of the modern Middle East in the Department of Political science, Bilkent University, Ankara. He previously taught at Bogazici (Bosporus) University in Istanbul and the University of Melbourne. His publications include The Unmaking of the Middle East: A History of Western Disorder in Arab Lands (University of California Press, 2008). He contributed this article to PalestineChronicle.com.

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  • Turkey Moves to Intensify Sanctions Against Syria

    Turkey Moves to Intensify Sanctions Against Syria

    By DAN BILEFSKY and ANTHONY SHADID

    ISTANBUL — Turkey took steps on Wednesday to freeze the Syrian government’s financial assets, impose a travel ban on senior Syrian officials and cut off transactions with the country’s central bank, sharply escalating international pressure on Damascus in response to its continuing violence against civilians.

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    Dilek Mermer/Anadolu Agency, via European Pressphoto Agency

    Turkey’s foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, announced strict new measures against Syria in Ankara, Turkey, on Wednesday.

    The latest measures, Turkish officials said, were enacted in concert with the Arab League, which imposed broad trade sanctions on Sunday, and are part of a developing international effort to strangle Syria’s economy and severely diminish the power of its government.

    Also on Wednesday, the Arab League unveiled a list of 17 senior Syrian officials who could face a ban on travel to other Arab countries, including the ministers of defense and interior. Also on the list are Rami Makhlouf, a millionaire cousin of President Bashar al-Assad who has controlled the mobile phone network; Mr. Assad’s younger brother Maher, who heads the elite Fourth Division and the Republican Guard; and members of the state security service, including Maj. Gen. Assef Shawkat, the deputy chief of staff for security affairs, who is married to the president’s sister.

    European, American and Turkish officials all said they believed Syria’s economic troubles could prove the undoing of Mr. Assad, who to date has managed to maintain the allegiance of Syria’s business elite.

    Reiterating his calls for Mr. Assad to relinquish power and to stop his brutal assault on his own people, Turkey’s foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, said in Ankara that the measures would include an extensive ban on military sales to Damascus and a blockade of weapons deliveries from third countries at Turkey’s land and sea borders with Syria. He said Turkey would also stop new transactions with the Commercial Bank of Syria and halt all credit to the Syrian government.

    “Every bullet fired, every bombed mosque has taken away the legitimacy of the Syrian leadership and has widened the gap between us,” Mr. Davutoglu said. “Syria has wasted the last chance that it was given.”

    He said the list of sanctions was a “first stage” in the measures against Damascus. The government also stressed that Wednesday’s sanctions would not include vital supplies like water and electricity that could harm the Syrian people.

    Syria is heavily reliant on Turkey for trade, which more than tripled between the two countries to $2.5 billion in 2009, from $795 million in 2006. Before the recent souring of relations, it was forecast to reach $5 billion by 2013.

    The European Union and the United States were the first to impose penalties, and European sanctions, in particular, harmed Syria’s oil industry, which once contributed as much as a third of the government’s revenue. Though Europe is Syria’s biggest overall trading partner, Turkey and Arab states make up four of its next five biggest, and the Syrian leadership, along with those tied to it, has large investments in the Persian Gulf.

    The Obama administration commended Turkey for its latest steps, and noted that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan had coordinated closely with President Obama. “The leadership shown by Turkey in response to the brutality and violation of the fundamental rights of the Syrian people will isolate the Assad regime and send a strong message to Assad and his circle that their actions are unacceptable and will not be tolerated,” said a statement issued by a White House spokesman, Tommy Vietor.

    An Obama administration official in Washington estimated that the Syrian government had lost more than 40 percent of its revenue, with the oil industry reeling and tourism devastated. The official said that the Assad government was having more trouble than ever supporting the Syrian pound, which residents say has fallen 12 percent in the black market from its official rate and now trades at 56 pounds to the dollar.

    The Arab and Turkish sanctions also carry great symbolic weight. Just a year ago, neighboring Turkey was emerging as one of Syria’s closest allies, and Damascus has long managed to play on inter-Arab rivalries to maintain a profile that traditionally outstripped its resources or relative strength. Moves by both the league and Turkey have left it as isolated as at any time since Mr. Assad’s father, Hafez, seized power four decades ago.

    In Syria, some people said they feared the sanctions could embolden government supporters and focus criticism on external forces. “The sanctions will make the regime supporters even more supportive,” said Joelle, 25, a graphic designer from Damascus. “That’s the notion I’m getting from people around me. They are blaming Arab nations for what’s happening to them, and reminiscing about the old days. They feel that this is an insult to Syria’s sovereignty.”

    The intensification of pressure by Turkey against Syria is part of a radical about-face in relations between the two countries, as Turkey seeks to assert its leadership in the Muslim world. Only a year ago Mr. Erdogan and Mr. Assad took vacations together and the countries held joint cabinet sessions.

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    Dan Bilefsky reported from Istanbul, and Anthony Shadid from Beirut, Lebanon. Reporting was contributed by Sebnem Arsu from Istanbul; Neil MacFarquhar from Damascus, Syria; Nada Bakri from Beirut; and Brian Knowlton from Washington.

    A version of this article appeared in print on December 1, 2011, on page A10 of the New York edition with the headline: Turkey Moves to Intensify Sanctions Against Syria.
  • The Syria-Iran-Turkey Triangle: A New War Scenario in the Middle East

    The Syria-Iran-Turkey Triangle: A New War Scenario in the Middle East

    27852While there were good connections and relations between Syria and Turkey only a year ago, today we began to talk different scenarios about the NATO intervention led by Turkey against Syria.

    Most commentators suggest that Syria came to the end of the road. Interestingly, old-friend Turkey is among the states which raise their loud voices against the Syrian Assad regime. “Our wish is that the Assad regime, which is now on a knife-edge, does not enter this road of no return, which leads to the edge of the abyss,” Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said. “No regime can survive by killing or jailing. No one can build a future over the blood of the oppressed.”

    While there were good connections and relations between Syria and Turkey only a year ago, today we begin to to talk about different scenarios about NATO intervention led by Turkey against Syria.

    Although the Turkish position is being portrayed as a defender of oppressed Syrian people in the world media, there are some questions which cannot be answered independently of war scenarios led by the U.S. against Iran.

    Today, we will try to look at the roots of Turkey’s position on events in Syria and its connection with the plans of global actors on the Middle East and new war scenarios in the region.

    Looking at the Syrian Case from Different Viewpoints…

    In this analysis, we do not talk about the oppressions of Assad regime. It is true that Bashar Al-Assad is a dictator and oppressor president and also unhesitatingly, Syrian people need to live in better conditions. Additionally, it is not possible to approve any pressure and oppression against the Syrian people. All things which are said in this issue are true…

    But, we want to look at the big-not small- picture of the Syrian case in the light of new plans on Middle East. As Michel Chossudovsky, from the Centre for Research on Globalization, says, “While the Syrian regime is by no means democratic, the objective of the US-NATO Israel military alliance is not to promote democracy. Quite the opposite, Washington’s intent is to eventually install a puppet regime.”

    In “Winning Modern Wars” General Wesley Clark states the following:

    “As I went back through the Pentagon in November 2001, one of the senior military staff officers had time for a chat. Yes, we were still on track for going against Iraq, he said. But there was more. This was being discussed as part of a five-year campaign plan, he said, and there were a total of seven countries, beginning with Iraq, then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Iran, Somalia and Sudan.”

    After we read these sentences, it is required for us to think again about all the Middle Eastern developments and events. The Syrian case is not exception…

    According to Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya, from the Centre for Research on Globalization, “Damascus has been under pressure to capitulate to the edicts of Washington and the European Union. This has been part of a longstanding project. Regime change or voluntary subordination by the Syrian regime are the goals. This includes subordinating Syrian foreign policy and de-linking Syrian from its strategic alliance with Iran and its membership within the Resistance Bloc.”

    “War preparations to attack Syria and Iran have been in ‘an advanced state of readiness’ for several years,” says Michel Chossudovsky. “The July 2006 bombing of Lebanon was part of a carefully planned ‘military road map’. The extension of ‘The July War’ on Lebanon into Syria had been contemplated by US and Israeli military planners. It was abandoned upon the defeat of Israeli ground forces by Hezbollah.”

    On the other hand, according to Chossudovsky, “the road to Tehran goes through Damascus. A US-NATO sponsored war on Iran would involve, as a first step, a destabilization campaign (‘regime change’) including covert intelligence operations in support of rebel forces directed against the Syrian government.” Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya also supports Chossudovsky’s argument in a detailed manner. Nazemroaya says:

    “The events in Syria are also tied to Iran, the longstanding strategic ally of Damascus. It is not by chance that Senator Lieberman was demanding publicly that the Obama Administration and NATO attack Syria and Iran like Libya. It is also not coincidental that Iran was included in the sanctions against Syria. The hands of the Syrian military and government have now been tied internally as a new and broader offensive is being prepared that will target both Syria and Iran.”

    In addition to them, Stephen Lendman’s approach is very helpful in order to understand the real picture in the Middle East:

    Israel wants regional rivals removed. Washington and key NATO partners want independent regimes ousted, replaced with subservient ones.

    At issue is establishing regional dominance. New targets can then confronted politically, economically, and/or belligerently.

    Fabricated IAEA Iranian documents escalated tensions. Rhetorical saber rattling followed. Stiffer sanctions are threatened and perhaps war.

    Syria’s been targeted for months. Libya’s insurgency was replicated. Street battles rage daily. Violence engulfs the country. Assad’s government is unfairly blamed. Washington’s dirty hands are at fault. So are Israel’s and other conspiratorial allies.

    According to former UK official Alastair Crooke, there is a “great game” in the issue of Syria and Iran. “Regime change in Syria is a strategic prize that outstrips Libya – which is why Saudi Arabia and the west are playing their part.” he said. “(S)et up a hurried transitional council as sole representative of the Syrian people, irrespective of (its legitimacy); feed in armed insurgents from neighboring states; impose sanctions that will hurt the middle classes; mount a media campaign to denigrate any Syrian efforts at reform; try to instigate divisions within the army and the elite; and ultimately President Assad will fall – so its initiators insist.”

    Moreover, “suppose this was a Hollywood script conference and you have to pitch your story idea in 10 words or less. It’s a movie about Syria. As much as the currently in-research Kathryn Hurt LockerBigelow film about the Osama bin Laden raid was pitched as ‘good guys take out Osama in Pakistan’, the Syrian epic could be branded ‘Sunnis and Shi’ites battle for Arab republic’.” says Pepe Escobar. “Yes, once again this is all about that fiction, the “Shi’ite crescent”, about isolating Iran and about Sunni prejudice against Shi’ites.”

    Last developments/events in Syria and the Turkish viewpoint…

    “Washington and the E.U. have pushed Turkey to be more active in the Arab World. This has blossomed through Ankara’s neo-Ottomanism policy. This is why Turkey has been posturing itself as a champion of Palestine and launched an Arabic-language channel like Iran and Russia,” says Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya. He adds: “Ankara, however, has been playing an ominous role. Turkey is a partner in the NATO war on Libya. The position of the Turkish government has become clear with its betrayal of Tripoli. Ankara has also been working with Qatar to corner the Syrian regime. The Turkish government has been pressuring Damascus to change its policies to please Washington and appears to possibly even have a role in the protests inside Syria with the Al-Sauds, the Hariri minority camp in Lebanon, and Qatar. Turkey is even hosting opposition meetings and providing them support.”

    Again, as Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya emphasizes: “The violence in Syria has been supported from the outside with a view of taking advantage of the internal tensions and the anger in Syria. Aside from the violent reaction of the Syrian Army, media lies have been used and bogus footage has been aired. Weapons, funds, and various forms of support have all been funnelled to elements of the Syrian opposition by the U.S., the E.U., the March 14 Alliance, Jordan, and the Khalijis. Funding has been provided to ominous and unpopular foreign-based opposition figures, while weapons caches were smuggled from Jordan and Lebanon into Syria.”

    We, gradually, have seen the changing position of Turkey on Syria. Today, many Syrian opponents are organized in Turkey. Even, Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal al-Mikdad claimed that Ankara helped establish the opposition Syrian National Council (SNC) and Free Syrian Army (FSA). SNC recognition accompanied Syria’s suspension.

    On the other hand, as Tony Karon says, “The current Turkish government sees itself as a bridge between the West and the Arab world, and even between the West and Iran. And it is also as a supporter of Arab democracy and the principle that conflicts must be resolved by political solutions that reflect the popular will. In Libya, despite its longstanding relationships with Colonel Gaddafi, it has pressed for a democratic political solution, remaining actively engaged with and support of the Benghazi-based opposition at the same time as maintaining its good offices with the regime. It has done the same with Syria, urging the regime to make democratic reforms, and criticizing the use of force against demonstrators — and allow Syrian opposition groups to use Istanbul as a base from which to try and organize themselves.”

    While Robert W. Meryy encourages Turkey for its role in the Middle East by saying that “Turkey should be encouraged to develop its role as Islamic interlocutor, perhaps even as something of a core state for Islam. It can help guide the Middle East through its current travails and struggles far better than the United States can. That’s because we live in the era of the Clash of Civilizations.”; Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya criticizes Turkey’s new role in the region:

    Turkey is viewed in Washington and Brussels as the key to bringing the Iranians and the Arabs into line. The Turkish government has been parading itself as a member of the Resistance Bloc with the endorsement of Iran and Syria. U.S strategists project that it will be Turkey which domesticates Iran and Syria for Washington. Turkey also serves as a means of integrating the Arab and Iranian economies with the economy of the European Union. In this regard Ankara has been pushing for a free-trade zone in Southwest Asia and getting the Iranians and Syrians to open up their economies to it.

    In reality, the Turkish government has not only been deepening its economic ties with Tehran and Damascus, but has also been working to eclipse Iranian influence. Ankara has tried to wedge itself between Iran and Syria and to challenge Iranian influence in Iraq, Lebanon, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Turkey also tried to establish a triple entente between itself, Syria, and Qatar to push Syria away from Tehran. This is why Turkey has been very active vocally against Israel, but in reality has maintained its alliance and military deals with Tel Aviv. Inside Turkey itself, however, there is also an internal struggle for power that could one day ignite into a civil war with multiple players.

    …..

    This project to manipulate and redefine Islam and Muslims seeks to subordinate Islam to capitalist interests through a new wave of political Islamists, such as the JDP/AKP. A new strand of Islam is being fashioned through what has come to be called “Calvinist Islam” or a “Muslim version of the Protestant work ethic.” It is this model that is being nurtured in Turkey and now being presented to Egypt and the Arabs by Washington and Brussels.

    This “Calvinist Islam” also has no problem with the “reba” or interest system, which is prohibited under Islam. It is this system that is used to enslave individuals and societies with the chains of debt to global capitalism.

    Today, Libya’s model targets Syria. According to Israel’s Mossad-linked DEBKAfile, NATO and Turkey plan intervening in Syria by enlisting and arming thousands of insurgent forces. Saudi Arabia, Lebanon’s Hariri March 14 Alliance, Jordan and Israel are involved. Washington’s in charge and orchestrating events.

    On the other hand, Michel Chossudovsky claimed that “Turkey is a member of NATO with a powerful military force. Moreover, Israel and Turkey have a longstanding joint military-intelligence agreement, which is explicitly directed against Syria.” He adds:

    …A 1993 Memorandum of Understanding led to the creation of (Israeli-Turkish) ‘joint committees’ to handle so-called regional threats. Under the terms of the Memorandum, Turkey and Israel agreed ‘to cooperate in gathering intelligence on Syria, Iran, and Iraq and to meet regularly to share assessments pertaining to terrorism and these countries’ military capabilities.’

    Turkey agreed to allow IDF and Israeli security forces to gather electronic intelligence on Syria and Iran from Turkey. In exchange, Israel assisted in the equipping and training of Turkish forces in anti-terror warfare along the Syrian, Iraqi, and Iranian borders.

    As supportive information to this argument, Tony Karon says, “some analysts suggest there’s already a tacit agreement among U.S. and Saudis that Turkey will take the lead in shaping any international response to the Syria crisis. The Israeli media has suggested that some in Washington see the breakdown between Turkey and Iran over Syria as an opportunity to draw Ankara back into the U.S.-Israeli camp on dealing with Iran.

    Moreover, “There is increased talk of military pressure to come through arming members of the opposition to the Syrian regime — should it persist in its obstinacy and bloody repression — could lead to rebellion and a split within the Syrian army.” says Raghida Dergham. “While NATO will not engage in airstrikes against the regime in Damascus — on par with its operations in Libya — the alliance may provide financial support and armaments to the dissidents through Turkey in support of ground operations, not air strikes, should the regime continue with its military approach. The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) may also follow suit. Last week, the GCC countries said they were running out of patience with the Syrian regime and began a wider effort in close collaboration with Turkey. This has made Iran increasingly concerned, perhaps even irate as well — something which everyone is now closely observing to see how it shall be translated on the ground in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq as well.”

    Iran-Turkey rivalry in the Middle East and the Syrian case…

    “With the ‘Arab Spring’, Iran started to see Turkey as the major obstacle/rival before its regional policy,” says Associate Professor Mehmet Sahin. “The main reason of the fact that Iran is uncomfortable with Turkey is Turkey’s increasing influence on the region. It should not be overlooked that Iran came first among the countries following the Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visits to Egypt, Tunisia, Libya within the scope of the ‘Arab Spring’ tour. As long as Turkey is effective in the region, Iran draws away from the region. “

    As a parallel comment, Tony Karon said that “even while Turkey has distanced itself from the U.S. strategy of isolating and pressuring Iran over its nuclear program, Tehran and Ankara are also rivals for influence in the wider Middle East.”

    We can see this rivalry between Turkey and Iran in the Syrian case again. In the comment of Turkey’s Hurriyet Daily News, it is said that “It is no secret that Turkey and Iran have a different approach toward the Arab Spring and especially on its effects on Syria. After Iraq and Afghanistan, Syria has become another regional issue where Ankara and Tehran follow diverging policies.”

    On the other hand, according to Tony Karon, “Turkey and Iran are Syria’s key foreign allies, but they have very different relationships with Damascus — Tehran’s being a long-established strategic alliance, while Ankara’s is based on having lately emerged as the key source of trade and investment critical to Syria’s prospects — and very different ideas on how the Assad regime should deal with the political crisis.”

    Today, we know that Iran feels discomfort from Turkey’s hurtful policies on the Middle East. Whilst Iran was satisfied from Turkey, what has changed? According to the Economist, “Turkey’s mollycoddling of the mullahs has angered America, most recently when Mr. Erdogan’s government voted against imposing further sanctions on Iran at the United Nations last year. Turkey has since sought to make amends. It has agreed to NATO plans for a nuclear-defence missile shield that is clearly aimed at Iran. And after some dithering, it is co-operating with the alliance’s military operations in Libya.”

    Because of this reality, Iran warns Turkey regularly. Associate Professor Mehmet Sahin categorizes Iranian authorities’ criticism for Ankara:

    According to the Iranian authorities;

    1- Turkey wants to give an explicit message to Iran and Russian Federation by letting the deployment of NATO’s missile shield with early warning radar system on her territories.

    2- The fact that Turkey suggests countries such as; Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya a new regime model, based on a ‘secular system’, is an unexpected and unbearable situation, as the people in the region are Muslim.

    3- Turkey which is under the pressure of the U.S., Israel, and Saudi Arabia, has been making its third strategic mistake by trying to liven up the protest demonstrations in Syria.

    As the Iranian authorities made these statements above, they could not also stop accusing Turkey. In this context, they claim that Turkey follows its foreign policy ‘in accordance with the directives of the U.S., as well as in order to protect the interests of the U.S. and to protect Israel.’ They suggest that the main objective of the Missile Shield Project is to protect Israel. At the same time, the Iranian authorities, who made statements, underline that Turkey will face new problems in the region, particularly in terms of the commercial affairs with Iran, if she maintains her current foreign policy.

    Iran-Syria Relations and the possibility of Major Regional War…

    “And what do Iran’s ‘Revolutionary Guards’ think of Syria? They believe that Assad’s government constitutes an exception,” says Wahied Wahdat-Hagh. “They claim that whilst almost all Arab governments have been touched by the change afoot in the Arab world, with most of these falling due to their ‘pro-Western’ policies, Syria is ‘an exception.’ Syria is counted amongst the ‘ranks of resistance,’ they say.”

    On the other hand, when Amir Taheri focuses on the details of Iran-Syria relations, he gives place to these sentences in his article:

    Iran, however, stands dead set against the scheme. Over the last decade, Syria has become more of a client state than an ally.

    Iran has kept Syria’s moribund economy alive with frequent cash injection and investments thought to be worth $20 billion, and also gives Syria ‘gifts,’ including weapons worth $150 million a year. Tehran sources even claim that key members of Assad’s entourage are on the Iranian payroll.

    During Bashar’s presidency, the Iranian presence has grown massively. Iran has opened 14 cultural offices across Syria, largely to propagate its brand of Shiite Islam. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard also runs a ‘coordination office’ in Damascus staffed by 400 military experts, and Syria is the only Mediterranean nation to offer the Iranian navy mooring rights.

    The two countries have signed a pact committing them to ‘mutual defense.’ Syria and North Korea are the only two countries with which Iran holds annual conferences of chiefs of staff.

    Moreover, “Under a mutual defense pact signed between Syria and Iran in 2005, Syria agreed to allow the deployment of Iranian weapons on its territory. On June 15, 2006, Syria’s defense minister, Hassan Turkmani, signed an agreement with his Iranian counterpart for military cooperation against what they called the ‘common threats’ presented by Israel and the United States. ‘Our cooperation is based on a strategic pact and unity against common threats,’ said Turkmani. ‘We can have a common front against Israel’s threats,’” says Mitchell Bard. He also looks at the strategic importance of Syria for Iran in his article:

    Syria harbors in Damascus representatives of ten Palestinian terrorist organizations including Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine(DFLP), and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine all of which are opposed to advances in the peace process between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. These groups have launched terrible attacks against innocent Israeli citizens, which have resulted in hundreds of deaths. Syria also supports the Iranian-funded Hezbollah.

    For more than 30 years, Lebanon was essentially controlled by Syria. With Syrian acquiescence, Lebanon became the home to a number of the most radical and violent Islamic organizations. Hezbollah (Party of God), in particular, has been used by the Syrians as a proxy to fight Israel.

    Today, we began to talk about the elimination of these two allies. Although some observers only focuses on the Syria, many of them indicate “regional war”. In this regional war, Iran will be main target. According to Austin Bay, the civil war has now expanded into a twilight regional war between Iran and NATO, with Turkey as NATO’s frontline actor.

    As a parallel comment, “The involvement of Iran, Turkey, Saudia Arabia, and other Gulf states has turned the Syrian uprising from an internal event – resulting from mass poverty, oppression, and a lack of economic and political future – into a potential regional war.” says Zvi Bar’el. “Syria, whose regional strategic importance is based less on oil and natural resources, and more on its strong relationship with Iran and ability to intervene in Iraqi affairs, has been able to prevent the establishment of a military front against it. As opposed to the immediate international consensus that allowed for a military offensive in Libya, there has been no initiative to promote a similar UN Security Council in regards to Syria.”

    On the other hand, “All the ingredients for a conformation led by the U.S. against Iran exist,” says Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya. “Iranophobia is being spread by the U.S., the E.U., Israel, and the Khaliji monarchies. Hamas has been entangled into the mechanisms of a unity government by the unelected Mahmoud Abbas, which would mean that Hamas would have to be acquiescent to Israeli and U.S. demands on the Palestinian Authority. Syria has its hands full with domestic instability. Lebanon lacks a functioning government and Hezbollah is increasingly being encircled.”

    Today, we are hearing some allegations in order to aim Iran at the target. Necessarily, we are thinking that while Syria is second target, the main target is Iran in the Middle East?

    Wayne Madsen’s comments approve our argument: “Israel’s strategy is to make certain that its plans to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities and, perhaps other targets, meet no opposition from diplomatic circles in the United States… Israel has placed its own interests well beyond and in contravention of those of the United States.”

    He also mentions a polarization between regional powers as a component part of this puzzle:

    “Countries in Asia are scrambling to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as full members. Confronted by a belligerent United States, NATO, and Israel intent on toppling the governments of Syria and Iran, the economic, cultural, and de facto collective security pact that comprises Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan announced after its prime ministers’ summit in St. Petersburg that SCO would soon be opening its doors for full membership for Pakistan, Iran, and India. The Asian nations want to freeze the United States out of interference in Asia.”

    Moreover, “The structure of military alliances respectively on the US-NATO and Syria-Iran-SCO sides, not to mention the military involvement of Israel, the complex relationship between Syria and Lebanon, the pressures exerted by Turkey on Syria’s northern border, point indelibly to a dangerous process of escalation,” says Michel Chossudovsky. “Any form of US-NATO sponsored military intervention directed against Syria would destabilize the entire region, potentially leading to escalation over a vast geographical area, extending from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Afghanistan-Pakistan border with Tajikistan and China.”

    Syria and the Iran Factor

    If we attach the excuses against Iran to this polarization process, it can be more easily to read this picture…

    According to Wayne Madsen, “Israel, using its agents of influence in the UN delegations of the United States, Britain, Germany, Canada, Sweden, and the Netherlands, has ensured that International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Yukiya Amano has tainted his agency’s report on Iranian nuclear developments in a manner that would have never been tolerated by his predecessor, Mohammed ElBaradei. Amano certainly took no interest in the fact that his own nation, Japan, was secretly producing nuclear weapons at the Fukushima nuclear complex in contravention of IAEA rules. The aftermath of the destructive earthquake in Japan laid open the secret work going on at Fukushima. Amano is perfectly willing to act as a cipher for Israel and the Israel Lobby in ‘discovering’ IAEA violations by Iran.”

    On the other hand, giving an ear to Pepe Escobar about the producing fabrication causes in order to aim Iran at the target can be very helpful:

    It’s Christmas in October – as the United States government has just handed it the perfect gift; in the excited words of US Attorney General Eric Holder, “A deadly plot directed by factions of the Iranian government to assassinate a foreign ambassador on US soil with explosives.”

    ….

    The plot is very handy to divert attention from Saudi Arabia as the beneficiary of a multi-billionaire US weapons sale. And also very handy to divert attention from Holder himself – caught in yet another monstrous scandal, on whether he told lies regarding Operation Fast and Furious (no, you can’t make this stuff up), a federal gun sting through which no less than 1,400 high-powered US weapons ended up, untracked, in the hands of – you guessed it – Mexican drug cartels. Seems like the Fast and the Furiousfranchise is the entertainment weapon of choice across all levels of the US government.

    Washington wants to ‘unite the world’ against Iran (‘world’ meaning the North Atlantic Treaty Organization – NATO) and is graphically threatening to take Iran to the United Nations Security Council – all over again.

    So let’s anxiously wait for a hushed R2P (“responsibility to protect”) resolution ordering NATO to establish a no-fly zone over every House of Saud prince across the world. A resolution which would be interpreted as a NATO mandate to bomb Iran into regime change. Now that’s a script you can believe in.

    In recent days, Turkey sends severe messages to Syria. Do this mean that Turkey preferred to be on America and NATO’s side in this polarization war in the region?

    The Turkish government said it was suspending joint oil exploration and considering stopping electricity supplies to its neighbor. What does it mean for Turkey’s position?

    As Tony Karon says, “Turkey fears Syria being turned into another sectarian quagmire on the same lines as Iraq, but it’s not following the line of its BRIC allies — Russia, China, Brazil, India and South Africa — at the U.N.”

    “Turkey’s new approach to Syria also has the potential to create tension with Iran in the medium term,” says Nihat Ali Ozcan. “A possible shift of power will end the role of Syria as the ‘strategic ally’ of Iran; which will in turn assign a partial responsibility for such an outcome to Turkey.”

    Additionally, Kaveh L Afrasiabi warns Turkey about is policies against Iran and Russia: “As Turkey’s principal energy partners, Russia and Iran provide roughly 70% of Turkey’s energy imports, yet both Tehran and Moscow are about to send Ankara the chills of negative reactions if Turkey goes ahead with its threat of sanctions on Syria. Already, Turkey’s embrace of the bid by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to station an anti-missile radar on its territory has angered both Russia and Iran.”

    And he adds: “Turkey is bound to lose a great deal of its appeal as conflict mediator in the region if it continues to alienate neighbors like Iran and Syria by pursuit of regime change in Damascus. This is in light of its willingness to host Syrian opposition groups which are now setting up shop in Turkey for a Libya-style transitional government, thus overlooking the major differences between Libya and Syria.”

    In contrast to Nihat Ali Ozcan and Kaveh L Afrasiabi’s comments, Barçın Yinanç looks at the issue from a some different perspective. “While the AKP has burned most of the bridges with the Bashar al-Assad regime, it seems that its stance on Iran has not yet been affected,” she said. Yinanç adds:

    News about a possible Israeli attack on Iran, triggered by the U.N. nuclear watchdog’s report due to be released this week, will turn eyes to Turkey, whose policies in the recent past have been in favor of Iran when it came to efforts to increase international pressure on Tehran.

    Now that the regional rivalry between Turkey and Iran has intensified, will Turkey change its stance on Iran? Will it make Turkey happy to see that international pressure intensifying on the country, prompting fresh sanctions? Is a military strike on Iran the worst option as far as Turkey’s interests are concerned?

    ….

    It looks like Turkey is not going to deviate from this stance, even if Iran’s role in the Arab Spring increasingly conflicts with Turkey’s interests. Or at least one can say that Iranian actions have not come to such a point of damaging Turkish interests that they would prompt Ankara to change its stance on the nuclear issue. After all, Turkish-Iranian history has been about avoiding open hostilities despite intense regional rivalry behind the scenes.

    ….

    The realignment of Turkey’s policies with those of the Western bloc during the Arab Spring must have eased Western concerns that Turkey has been leaning too much in favor of Iran. Yet, does Davutoglu believe he still has the trust of the Iranians and does he believe he still has influence over Iran due to his personal relations? Will he again consider the conditions appropriate enough to step in? This remains to be seen.

    Conclusion…

    As Robert Dreyfuss emphasizes:

    The New York Times carries a piece titled: “U.S. Tactics in Libya May Be a Model for Other Efforts.” By model, of course, they mean the mobilization of lethal force, including coordinated bombing attacks and precision missile strikes, tied closely to rebel military tactics, jointly run by the United States and NATO. In it, President Obama’s advisers—including Ben Rhodes, the humanitarian interventionist hawk who supported the U.S. war in Libya—suggest that the Libyan action might easily be applied elsewhere. “How much we translate to Syria remains to be seen,” says one adviser, anonymously. And the Times notes:

    “The very fact that the administration has joined with the same allies that it banded with on Libya to call for Mr. Assad to go and to impose penalties on his regime could take the United States one step closer to applying the Libya model toward Syria.”

    And he concludes his article so: “It’s fair to say that Syria and Iran are far more difficult cases than Libya, a empty desert nation whose civil conflict was likely not to spread. By contrast, war in Syria could affect Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon, Israel and Jordan, and war in Iran could have incalculable consequences from Pakistan and Afghanistan to the Persian Gulf. Still, you can already imagine the drumbeat from neocons and liberal interventionists that the United States cannot allow Syrians, or Iranians, to be massacred.”

    After looking at this big picture, it seems that the Syrian case is connection with broader agendas. Here, it is required for Turkey to think its position on Syria again and again…

    Although Turkey claims that it will not be a pawn for the regional war, its actions and comments say a different thing.

    Today, the U.S., the West, and the NATO do not care about the future of Syrian people. Nor do they desire more democratic systems in the Middle East. Their only aim is to guarantee their oppression systems. If, today, Bashar Al-Assad says that O.K., I will abandon Iran, I will block Iran’s passing weapons to Hezbollah and Palestinian groups, and also I want to cooperate with the U.S. and the West in the region after that; we will see that all these disinformation and manipulation processes will, gradually, be abandoned in the world media and psychological war against to Syria will end. In the event of any changing in policies of Syria, both the U.S. and the West will keep their mouth shut about Assad’s oppressions to his people…

    So, Turkey backs the wrong horse again. What a shame!

  • Turkey’s ‘Zero-Problems’ Foreign Policy Falls Over Syrian ‘Abyss’

    Turkey’s ‘Zero-Problems’ Foreign Policy Falls Over Syrian ‘Abyss’

    Written by Ramzy Baroud

    SyriaErdogan

    When Recep Tayyip Erdogan became Turkey’s prime minister in 2003, he seemed to be certain of the new direction his country would take. It would maintain cordial ties with Turkey’s old friends, Israel included, but also reach out to its Arab and Muslim neighbors, Syria in particular. The friendly relations between Ankara and Damascus soon morphed from rhetorical emphasis on cultural ties into trade deals and economic exchanges worth billions of dollars. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s vision of a ‘zero-problems’ foreign policy seemed like a truly achievable feat, even in a region marred by conflict, foreign occupations and ‘great game’ rivalry.

    The Israeli raid on the Turkish aid ship, Mavi Marmara, in international waters on May 31, 2010, was not enough to erode this vision. The official Turkish response to Israel’s violent attack – which killed nine Turkish citizens – was one of great anger, but it hardly resembled what Turkey saw as state-sponsored Israeli piracy in the Mediterranean.

    However, the Syrian uprising in March, the harsh government crackdown on dissent, and the growing militarization of the opposition – all leading the country down the road to full-fledged civil war – has forced Turkey to abandon its ‘zero-problems’ foreign policy. While Turkey had clearly grown impatient with the bloody crackdowns on widespread protests demanding freedom and political reforms, its growingly confrontational attitude towards Damascus was not entirely altruistic either. Considering the exceptionality of the situation throughout the Arab World, Turkey has had to make some difficult choices.

    Turkey’s initially guarded support of NATO’s military intervention against Libya was a litmus test. It proved that Turkey’s membership in the organization, and its regional standing was more important than any foreign policy visions.

    “The same stunning irony was clear in Turkey’s relations with (murdered President Muammar) Qadhafi’s Libya. Once these regimes faltered…zero problems was likely to look like a bad bet,” wrote Steven A Cook in the Atlantic, on November 18.

    The other ‘stunning irony’ is, of course, Turkey’s hostile attitude towards Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, once considered by Erdogan to be a personal friend. In fact, the leading role currently played by Ankara to isolate and punish al-Assad would seem like the official “denouement of the Erdogan/Davutoglu investment in Bashar al-Assad,” and thus the “end of what has been billed as Turkey’s transformative diplomacy,” according to Cook.

    Despite pressure on Ankara to hasten its isolation of Syria, and subtle insinuations that the Turkish leadership is moving too slow on that front, the language alone tells of near complete foreign policy conversion. In a statement on November 15, Prime Minister Erdogan suggested that al-Assad cannot be trusted.  “No one any longer expects (the Syrian President) to meet the expectations of the people and of the international community…Our wish is that the Assad regime, which is now on a knife edge, does not enter this road of no return, which leads to the edge of the abyss” (Global Spin blog, TIME online, November 16).

    The apocalyptic language can be justified on the basis of an almost inevitable civil war in Syria, and the instability that such a war could create for an already unstable southern Turkish border. More, with regional and international players already vying for the opportunity to exploit Syria’s internal woes, Turkey’s own internal problems could soon be exploited for the benefit of outside forces. Thus, the new Turkish foreign policy appears to be centered on ensuring a position of leadership for Ankara in any future scenario faced by Syria. It’s a remarkable shift – from a moralistic approach to politics to a crude realpolitik outlook, which may require sacrificing others for the benefit of oneself.

    Political realism is often riddled with ironies. While Turkey once threatened to go to war unless Syria expelled PKK’s Ocalan, it “is now supporting a man, Riad al Assad, whose ‘Free Syrian Army’ is doing exactly the same across the Syrian border,” according Ankara-based writer Jeremy Salt. Furthermore, “in confronting Syria…Turkey has put itself at odds with Syria’s ally, Iran, whose cooperation it needs in dealing with the PKK” (The Palestine Chronicle, November 18).

    By claiming a position of leadership in the ongoing effort to topple the Syrian government, Turkey hopes to stave off unwanted repercussions from the Syria fallout – and thus control the outcome of that adventure. This explains why Turkey’s largest city, Istanbul, has played the host of the Syrian National Council, and why the Free Syrian Army, which has launched several deadly attacks on Syrian security installations, is finding a safe haven in Turkish territories.

    Politically, Turkey is also taking a lead role. Its foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, after a meeting with French foreign minister Alain Juppe, called for more international pressure against Damascus. “If they don’t listen we have to increase pressure to stop bloodshed in Syria,” he said. “But this pressure should not be unilateral pressure, all the relevant countries should act together” (The Financial Times, November 18).

    What Davutoglu means by ‘act together’, and which countries are ‘relevant’ is open to speculation.

    As for acting, Mohammad Riad Shaqfa, the leader of Syria’s outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, offered his own roadmap at a news conference in Istanbul. “If the international community procrastinates then more is required from Turkey as a neighbor to be more serious than other countries to handle this regime,” Shaqfa said. “If other interventions are required, such as air protection, because of the regime’s intransigence, then the people will accept Turkish intervention” (Turkey’s Hurriyet, November 17).

    A detailed plan of that envisaged intervention was published in Turkey’s Sabah newspaper on the day of Shaqfa’s comments. According to Sabah, an intervention plan was put forth by ‘oppositional forces’. Its details include a limited no-fly-zone that progressively widened to include major Syrian provinces and a blockade of the city of Aleppo in the north (Sabah, November 17).

    Considering the escalating violence in Syria, and the palpable lack of good intentions by all ‘relevant countries,’ Syria is teetering close to the abyss of prolonged civil war, divisions and unprecedented bloodletting.

    “As negotiator and facilitator between the Syrian government and the internal opposition, Turkey has a role to play,” wrote Jeremy Salt, “but provoking Syria along the border,  lecturing Bashar al-Assad as if he were a refractory provincial governor during Ottoman rule and giving support to people who are killing Syrian citizens is not the way ahead.”

  • Turkey to Probe Reports of Bus Attacks in Syria

    Turkey to Probe Reports of Bus Attacks in Syria

    By MARC CHAMPION

    ISTANBUL—Turkey’s foreign ministry said Monday it was investigating reports that Turkish pilgrims were shot at in Syria, leaving two wounded.

    Video footage posted on the internet by Syrian pro-Democracy activists showed wounded people being transferred from several buses to ambulances in Hatay, just across the Syrian border in Turkey, apparently after the pilgrims returned.

    According to Turkey’s NTV television, the Turkish pilgrims were on their way to Mecca in a convoy of buses on Sunday, when they came under fire near the city of Homs, close to Syria’s border with Lebanon. Three of the buses were hit and two people were injured, including a bus driver, NTV said.

    The buses were attacked after they got lost and asked directions at a checkpoint, and then turned back to Turkey, NTV said. It wasn’t certain Monday who fired at the buses; passengers said the Syrian military was responsible.

    A spokesman for the foreign ministry confirmed that “an incident” had taken place. “We are looking into it,” he said.

    Although close allies until the beginning of this year, Ankara and Damascus have become increasingly hostile since the regime of President Bashar al-Assad began a crackdown on opposition protesters this is believed to have claimed more than 3,500 lives to date.

    On Monday, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan again lashed out at Mr. Assad. “If you believe in yourself as a leader, if you are confident, you will open the ballot boxes and everyone would go to vote,” Mr. Erdogan said in a speech to a meeting of Muslim clerics from Africa in Istanbul. “But with tanks and cannons you can only lead up to a point. A day will come when you will go too.”

    Pro-regime protesters attacked the Turkish embassy in Damascus and consulates elsewhere in the country 10 days ago, in the wake of an Arab League decision to suspend Syria from the organization.

    On Monday, several Turkish newspapers cited unnamed government officials saying Ankara had developed contingency plans to impose a military buffer zone or no-fly zone within Syria should the security situation there deteriorate significantly.

    “We have no confidence left in the regime, but at the moment we don’t think outside military intervention to be right,” Turkey’s President Abdullah Gul told journalists as he flew to visit the U.K. on Sunday, according to several TV and newspaper reports. “These are things that should be solved within Syria.”

    A Turkish official told The Wall Street Journal that Ankara now sought to stay in line with, or one step behind, the Arab League in applying further measures to pressure the Syrian regime.

    —Ayla Albayrak in Istanbul contributed to this article.

    Write to Marc Champion at marc.champion@wsj.com

    via Turkey to Probe Reports of Bus Attacks in Syria – WSJ.com.

  • Britain in secret talks with Syrian rebels

    Britain in secret talks with Syrian rebels

    Britain + Syrian RebelsBritain has formally opened talks with the Syrian opposition movement as international pressure continues to mount against the beleaguered regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

    Frances Guy, a former ambassador to Lebanon, met members of the exiled opposition in Paris yesterday. The Foreign Secretary, William Hague, is to meet members of the Syrian opposition in London next week when they will also hold talks with senior officials in Downing Street.

    Although the UK, along with other Western states like France – which appealed to the United Nations yesterday to impose tougher sanctions – has been in informal contact with the opposition for the last three months, the progression of the working relationship opens up the prospect of the rebels eventually being recognised as the country’s representatives and supplanting the Assad regime.

    The West’s Libyan mission started in a similar fashion with the country’s revolutionaries, but senior diplomatic sources warned against drawing parallels. “This is not about recognition of them as the government – that is not the case,” said a senior diplomatic source. “The difference with the Libyan situation was that the Libyan National Transitional Council controlled swathes of the country. We are asking the Syrian opposition to present a coherent set of policies and organise themselves.” The Syrian National Council and the National Co-ordination Committee for Democratic Change are among the groups whose leaders have been involved in the talks.

    The development comes as France said that it, too, was ready to work with the Syrian opposition, maintaining that it is too late for the Assad regime to save itself by carrying out reforms.

    Opposition from the veto-wielding members Russia and China has largely prevented the UN’s Security Council from responding to Assad’s crackdown on an eight-month uprising against his rule. But, following talks yesterday in Turkey, the French Foreign Minister Alain Juppé said the situation was “no longer sustainable” and that the UN must act.

    “It is not normal that the Security Council has not made any decision so far,” Mr Juppé told reporters. “I hope those blocking any resolution will be aware of the reality of the situation.”

    Turkey also called for action, with its Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, saying more must be done to stop the “massacre”.

    As international pressure on Syria builds, Damascus made a tentative gesture to the Arab League, agreeing in principle to allow observers to enter the country for the first time to oversee the implementation of a peace plan to end the bloodshed.

    But there were few signs yesterday that the violence was abating following reports that at least 12 civilians, including two children, were killed when security forces fired on protesters following Friday prayers.

    Syria’s apparent concession came after the Arab League suspended Syria and gave it until the end of this week to implement a peace plan that calls for the regime to withdraw its forces from towns and end the violence. Hundreds of people have been killed since Syria accepted, and then largely ignored, the peace plan three weeks ago.

    Syrian officials were yesterday quoted as saying that they would accept foreign observers in the country, but that they had outlined their reservations to the Arab League. The body, which has threatened Damascus with sanctions, said it was studying the suggestions.

    But Mr Juppé expressed scepticism that Syria was ready to stop the violence. “We believe the regime was not willing to implement a reform programme and now it is too late,” he said.

    The UN estimates that at least 3,500 people have been killed since the government began its crackdown against an anti-regime uprising in March. Assad’s regime has accused foreign-backed “armed terrorist gangs” of killing 1,000 of its security personnel.

    The soaring death toll has pushed some to demand the international community put greater pressure on the embattled regime. In what could be a preliminary push towards sanctions, Germany, France and Britain are planning to ask the UN General Assembly to adopt a non-binding resolution condemning the violence in Syria.

    The European Union has already imposed sanctions on Syria, but Russia, a close ally of Syria, and China have blocked any wider international measures under a UN umbrella.

    Some protesters have responded to the regime’s crackdown by taking up arms to defend themselves. In the past week, the Syrian Free Army, a rebel force formed in July from military defectors, has mounted deadly attacks on regime targets, including the air force’s intelligence directorate. The attacks are the most potent fightback so far, and have exacerbated fears that the country is sliding towards armed insurrection.

    www.independent.co.uk, 19 NOVEMBER 2011