Category: Middle East

  • Turkey’s Foray Into the Fertile Crescent

    Turkey’s Foray Into the Fertile Crescent

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    The rebel-controlled Atmeh refugee camp in northern Syria is only yards from the border with Turkey, which provides strong support to the Syrian rebels.

    By SONER CAGAPTAY

    The biggest open secret in Ankara is that Turkey detests Iran, which it sees as undermining its interests in Syria and Iraq. Turkish leaders will not admit this publicly, for their country desperately needs Iranian natural gas and oil to continue its phenomenal economic growth.

    But Ankara increasingly regards both Iraq and Syria as arenas for proxy conflict with Iran; in the former, Turkey backs the Sunni Arabs and Kurds against the central government in Baghdad under Shiite Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, seen by Turkey as an Iranian puppet; in the latter, Ankara supports the rebels against the Tehran-backed Assad regime.

    Turkey has answered Iran’s challenge by building influence in the northern parts of both Iraq and Syria. This signals the rise of a yet-undeclared Turkish policy in the Middle East: Anticipating the decentralization of post-Assad Syria, and hoping to take advantage of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish north, Turkey is carving out a cordon sanitaire across the northern Fertile Crescent, building influence in the Kurdish population as well as in large commercial centers such as Aleppo and Mosul.

    When Turkey moved to foster closer ties with its Muslim neighbors about a decade ago, it hoped that such relations would help boost Iraq’s stability and improve political ties with Syria and Iran.

    But the Arab rebellions have rendered these designs obsolete. At first Ankara provided the Assad regime with friendly advice to stop killing civilians. But the Damascus regime refused, and Turkey’s stance flipped in August 2011: Ankara went from being Assad’s friendly neighbor to his chief adversary. Turkey started providing safe haven to the Syrian opposition, and, according to media reports, even arming the rebels.

    This policy has cast Ankara and Tehran, Assad’s patron, as chief rivals in Syria. And this, in turn, has exacerbated competition in Iraq, where Ankara supported Ayad Allawi’s secular Iraqiya bloc in the run-up to the 2010 elections, poisoning relations with Maliki.

    In the aftermath of Maliki’s reelection, Ankara has favored closer contacts among Sunni Arabs and Kurds in northern Iraq. Turkey’s trade volume with northern Iraq has climbed to $8 billion per year compared to only $2 billion with the southern portion of the country, and Ankara is seeking lucrative oil deals with Iraqi Kurds.

    In short, for all practical purposes, northern Iraq has become part of the Turkish sphere of influence. This is especially surprising considering that only a few years ago Turkish hostility toward Iraqi Kurdish leaders seemed ready to boil over into an outright invasion of the area.

    Today, by contrast, Turkish Airlines offers daily flights to Sulaymaniyah and Erbil inside the Kurdistan Regional Government (K.R.G.) in northern Iraq, and Iraqi Kurds take vacations in Antalya, a Turkish resort city on the Mediterranean.

    Mosul, a Sunni-majority province in northern Iraq, is also pivoting toward Ankara. Turkey currently provides safe haven to Tariq al-Hashimi, Iraq’s Sunni vice president, whose arrest warrant has become a rallying cause for many Sunnis. At the same time, historic links between Mosul and Turkey, dating back to the Ottoman Empire, are being resurrected: When I last visited Gaziantep, a city in southern Turkey, my hotel was full of Arab businessmen from Mosul.

    Before the Syrian uprising began, a similar development was taking place in Aleppo, another Fertile Crescent city that enjoyed deep commercial ties with Turkey under the Ottoman Empire.

    Located only 26 miles from the border, Aleppo had become a focal point of Turkish businesses in northern Syria, and there is no doubt that the strong support the Turks have provided to the rebels in northern Syria will increase Turkey’s influence in the city after the end of the Assad regime (it is no accident that the largest contiguous rebel-controlled areas in Syria are around Aleppo).

    The missing part of Turkey’s prospective influence in the northern Fertile Crescent were the Syrian Kurds — until Turkey announced peace talks with the Kurdistan Workers Party (P.K.K.). This group, which has waged a war against Turkey for over three decades, is also known to be the best-organized movement among the Syrian Kurds.

    Ankara hopes that peace talks with the P.K.K. will help heal the bad blood with Syrian Kurds. Indeed, Turkey has reworked its Middle East policy: It now views the Kurds as the foundation of its zone of influence across the northern Fertile Crescent.

    Yet not all is rosy for Turkey. The peace talks with the P.K.K. could go awry, driving P.K.K. rejectionists into the arms of Iran or even Baghdad. There is also an emerging threat in allowing radical fighters into northern Syria. This is a dangerous game, for once the Assad regime falls, Turkey might find itself with a jihadist problem in its newly acquired sphere of influence.

    Soner Cagaptay is director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and the author of “Turkey Rising: 21st Century’s First Muslim Power.”

    A version of this op-ed appeared in print on February 28, 2013, in The International Herald Tribune.
  • Iran, world powers agree to new nuclear talks in Istanbul, Almaty

    Iran, world powers agree to new nuclear talks in Istanbul, Almaty

    Almaty, Kazakhstan__ Negotiators from Iran and six world powers announced they would hold two more meetings over the next month to discuss a new international proposal aimed at curbing Iran’s 20% enrichment and nuclear breakout capacity, in exchange for some sanctions relief. The announcement came at the conclusion of two days of talks here that have seemingly turned out to be among the most positive of the past year, though both sides say they still have some work to do to narrow differences.

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    The parties agreed to hold an experts meeting in Istanbul on March 18, followed by a political directors meeting, again in Almaty, Kazakhstan on April 5-6, negotiators from the P5+1 and Iran announced in a joint statement at the conclusion of talks Wednesday.

    Iran’s chief negotiator Saeed Jalili described the Almaty meeting as “positive,” while his American and European counterparts characterized it, more cautiously, as “useful,” stressing the imperative is results, not atmospherics.

    “I would say it was a useful meeting,” a senior US official told journalists Wednesday. “The day we have concrete results, I will use a different adjective.”

    European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, speaking at the conclusion of talks Wednesday, said she welcomed if the Iranian side “are looking positively at proposals we put forward.” But, she added, “I believe in looking at what the results are.”

    The centerpiece of the two-day meeting was a presentation Tuesday by Ashton of a revised international proposal focused on curbing Iran’s 20% enrichment, suspending operations at the fortified Fordow enrichment facility, and increasing nuclear safeguards, transparency and IAEA inspections that would prevent a rapid Iranian breakout capability, the US diplomat said.

    The updated offer somewhat eases demands to entirely “stop, shut and ship” its 20% stockpile made in a proposal put forward in Baghdad last May.

    Unlike the past proposal, the updated one would allow Iran to keep a sufficient amount of its 20% enriched fuel to fuel a research reactor that produces isotopes to treat Iranian cancer patients, the US diplomat said.

    The revised proposal also calls for “suspension of enrichment” at Fordo–rather than shuttering the fortified facility, built into a mountain in Qom– and would “constrain the ability to quickly resume operations there,” the American official said. It also calls for enhanced IAEA monitoring measures “to promote greater transparency…and provide early warning” of any attempted breakout effort, the official said.

    In exchange, the proposal offers an easing of some sanctions. The US official said the proposed sanctions relief at this stage does not involve oil or financial sanctions, but other US and European Union imposed sanctions, which the official declined to specify. It would also offer to not impose new UN Security Council or European Union proliferation sanctions, as the previous offer also had. “We never regarded sanctions as an end in themselves,” the American official said.

    The US official declined to say whether the updated proposal asks Iran to halt installation of more advanced centrifuges at its Natanz enrichment facility, that could considerably speed up Iran’s enrichment capacity.

    Jalili offered rare praise for the international proposal, acknowledging it demonstrated a clear effort to respond to Iranian concerns. “We believe this is a…turning point,” he said through at a translator at a press conference Wednesday. The six parties “have moved closer to our proposal.”

    There were signs over the past two days that the meeting was going well compared to earlier rounds.

    Members of Iran’s negotiating team held a series of unannounced bilateral meetings with diplomats from Russia, China, and unusually Germany and the UK Tuesday night, western officials said. (Former Iranian ambassador to the UK Rasoul Movahedian-Atar, a member of Iran’s negotiating team here, met with former British ambassador to Iran Simon Gass, who now serves as the lead British negotiator at the talks, American and British diplomats said.)

    The lack of aggressive Iranian posturing as the meeting got underway Tuesday hinted that Iranian negotiators may have been persuaded that the revised P5+1 proposal had moved at least some way to respond to their concerns, including in offering some sanctions relief, and that they should at least agree to study and discuss it further.

    By the conclusion of talks Wednesday, it was evident that Iran had decided to spin the updated offer as a diplomatic success for Tehran, that responded to an Iranian proposal presented at a meeting in Moscow last June.

    Also notable, the Iranian delegation did not hang posters of assassinated Iranian nuclear scientists on the podium before Jalili’s press conference, as it had at several earlier rounds.

    Earlier in the week, on the eve of talks, Western diplomats said they would like to come to agreement here on a follow-on meeting, or series of meetings, at the expert level. A meeting of non-proliferation experts held last July in Istanbul was productive and involved more US-Iran interactions, American officials said Monday.

    Lead US negotiator at the talks, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman, travels Thursday to Israel, Jordan and Saudi Arabia to brief Middle East allies and GCC states about the Iran consultations and other matters.

    (Pool Photo, via NYT.)

    via Iran, world powers agree to new nuclear talks in Istanbul, Almaty | The Back Channel.

  • Turkey, the Unhelpful Ally

    Turkey, the Unhelpful Ally

    STOCKHOLM

    For Op-Ed, follow@nytopinion and to hear from the editorial page editor, Andrew Rosenthal, follow@andyrNYT.

    AMERICA’S stated goal is to remove President Bashar al-Assad from power in Syria. The United States also insists that any solution to the Syrian crisis should guarantee religious and ethnic pluralism. However, this rosy vision of a moderate and secular Syria after Mr. Assad’s downfall will not be achieved if the United States continues to depend on regional allies that have little interest in such an outcome.

    President Obama has relied heavily on Turkey in seeking to oust Mr. Assad and Secretary of State John Kerry is scheduled to visit the Turkish capital, Ankara, later this week. But Turkey is part of the problem. It is exacerbating Syria’s sectarian strife, rather than contributing to a peaceful and pluralistic solution.

    While the Obama administration has encouraged a broad Syrian opposition coalition, in which the influence of Islamists would be circumscribed, Turkey has not been of any assistance whatsoever. Instead, the Turkish government has continued to throw its weight behind the Muslim Brotherhood. The Brotherhood dominated the Syrian National Council, which is headquartered in Istanbul, and has succeeded in eclipsing other groups within the new opposition coalition, effectively thwarting the American effort to empower non-Islamists.

    Moreover, while sponsoring the Sunni cause in Syria, the Turkish government has made no attempt to show sympathy for the fears of the country’s Alawite, Christian and Kurdish minorities. The Alawites and the Christians have backed the government in large numbers and fear retribution if Mr. Assad is toppled.

    Turkey has provided a crucial sanctuary for the Sunni rebels fighting Mr. Assad and has helped to arm and train them.  Even more ominously, Turkey is turning a blind eye to the presence of jihadists on its territory, and has even used them to suppress the aspirations of Kurds in Syria. Last November, Islamist rebels from Jabhet al-Nusra,  which has reputed links to Al Qaeda in Iraq, entered the Syrian town of Ras al-Ain from Turkey and attacked fighters from the Kurdish Democratic Union Party, known as the P.Y.D., which had wrested control of parts of northeastern Syria. The Nusra fighters were initially repelled, but have continued to cross into Syria from their safe haven in Turkey.

    Mr. Obama has invested considerable political capital in Turkey, cultivating a close relationship with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. American and Turkish officials have held regular operational planning meetings since last summer, aimed at hastening the downfall of Mr. Assad. In a recent interview with the Turkish newspaper Milliyet, Mr. Obama thanked “the Turkish government for the leadership they have provided in the efforts to end the violence in Syria and start the political transition process.”

    But this praise is undeserved. America can’t expect the Sunni Arab autocracies that have financed the Syrian uprising, like Saudi Arabia and Qatar, to help empower secular and moderate leaders in Syria. However, Turkey, a NATO ally, should be expected to promote a pluralistic, post-Assad Syria. It has not.

    The Obama administration must therefore reassess the assumption that Turkey is playing a constructive role in ending the violence in Syria; it must also take a hard look at its own role in contributing to religious strife.

    America’s policy of punitive sanctions and not-so-veiled military threats toward Iran has encouraged Turkey to assert itself as a Sunni power. The perception that Turkey enjoys American “cover” for a foreign policy that directly confronts Iranian interests emboldened the Turkish government to throw its weight behind the armed Sunni rebellion against Mr. Assad, Iran’s main regional ally.

    Turkey quickly abandoned its stated ambition to have “zero problems with neighbors” and decided to join the United States in confronting Iran. It agreed to the deployment of parts of NATO’s antimissile shield, which is meant to neutralize a supposed Iranian missile threat.

    Turkey’s shift flowed from the belief that it would gain power and stature and reap the benefits if America succeeded in rolling back Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

    All of this suited the United States.  Washington no longer had to fear that Turkey might be “drifting eastward,” as it did during the short-lived Turkish-Iranian rapprochement a few years ago, when Turkey broke ranks with its Western partners over the Iranian nuclear issue. Turkey also appeared to be an American asset insofar as it could potentially offset the influence of more conservative Sunni powers like Saudi Arabia.

    But the Syrian crisis has had a radicalizing effect on all parties, including Turkey’s more moderate Islamist government. Under more peaceful circumstances, Mr. Erdogan might be able to live up to American expectations and promote a pluralistic vision for the Middle East. That won’t happen if the region is increasingly torn apart by violent religious conflict and its leaders believe that playing the sectarian card will enhance their power.

    Removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq in 2003 had the undesirable consequence of empowering Iran. A decade later, America’s effort to remove Mr. Assad is partly an attempt to remedy this geopolitical setback. But, as in Iraq, it has had unwelcome consequences. Moreover, American policy toward Iran is encouraging opportunistic Sunni assertiveness that threatens to trigger Shiite retaliation.

    The United States must beware of doing the bidding of Sunni powers — especially Turkey — that are advancing sectarian agendas that run counter to America’s interest of promoting pluralism and tolerance. Left unchecked, rising sectarianism could lead to a dangerous regional war.

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    Halil M. Karaveli is a senior fellow at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and the Silk Road Studies Program, which are affiliated with the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, in Washington, and with the Institute for Security and Development Policy, in Stockholm.

  • Christian Exodus from Syria Raises Hopes for Resurrection in Turkey

    Christian Exodus from Syria Raises Hopes for Resurrection in Turkey

    Christian Exodus from Syria Raises Hopes for Resurrection in Turkey

    Civil war pushes more Christian refugees into nearby Armenia and Turkey.

    Melissa Steffan

    Escalating violence in northern Syria is forcing Christians to flee their homeland and take refuge in nearby regions of Armenia and Turkey.

    The New York Times reports that several hundred Syrian Christian refugees have arrived in Turkey throughout the past few weeks, heading for “the monasteries and towns of Mardin and Midyat in Tur Abdin, an ancient region in southeastern Turkey, less than 50 kilometers, or 30 miles, from the Syrian border that is the historical heartland of the Syriac Orthodox Church.”

    The exodus from Syria is raising hopes of resurrecting the Christian presence in southeastern Turkey, which “is still dotted with Syriac churches like Mor Gabriel, which was founded in the year 397 and is one of the oldest active monasteries in the world today,” reports the Times. “But apart from the monks, very few Syriacs remain.”

    USA Today also reports that an “estimated 7,000 of Syria’s Christian-Armenian community have arrived in Armenia since the start of the uprising.” Christian refugees have headed for Aleppo, which is now the temporary home for nearly 8 in 10 of the Syrian Christians in Armenia.

    CT previously has reported on Syria, including how many Christians backed Assad’s regime and have been working to avert an all-out civil war. CT has also noted the legal troubles of Mor Gabriel.

    CT has also reported on Syriac Christians, who speak Aramaic (the language of Jesus), and “religicide” in the Middle East.

    posted by Melissa Steffan | Comments (0)

    via Christianity Today Gleanings: Christian Exodus from Syria Raises Hopes for Resurrection in Turkey.

  • Iranian citizen flies from Istanbul to Tehran in aircraft cargo bay

    Iranian citizen flies from Istanbul to Tehran in aircraft cargo bay

    Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb.26 / Trend, A.Taghiyeva /

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    An Iranian citizen, whose name is undisclosed, flew from Istanbul to Tehran in the cargo bay of an aircraft of Turkish airline Atlasjet, the Hürriyet newspaper reported on Tuesday.

    Beforehand he disguised himself in ground maintenance staff overalls and entered the cargo bay of the aircraft bound for the Iranian capital.

    The Iranian citizen was found in the cargo bay when the plane landed at Tehran in an unconsciousness state. From the airport, he was taken to hospital and there it said there is no threat to his life.

    An investigation is underway at Istanbul’s Ataturk Airport.

    via Iranian citizen flies from Istanbul to Tehran in aircraft cargo bay – Trend.Az.

  • ISRAEL SUES CITIZENS FOR SLANDER AND APOLOGIES TO TURKEY

    ISRAEL SUES CITIZENS FOR SLANDER AND APOLOGIES TO TURKEY

    ISRAEL SUES CITIZENS FOR SLANDER AND APOLOGIES TO TURKEY

    “The Sixth Commandment says ‘Thou shalt not kill,’ so why you [the municipality] are killing us here?”
    Privacy and Libel Law: The Clash with Press Freedom

    Israel sues citizens for slander and apologies to Turkey

    every idle word that men shall speak, they shall give account thereof in the day of judgment—Matthew 12:36

    BY ROITOV.COM

    Few newspaper editors have the capability to see the large picture; buried in their tactical manipulation of information they often miss the odd links created by their uncoordinated decisions, sometimes to the extent of hitting their own masters.
    On February 23, 2013, Israeli newspaper Haaretz did just that. Its Hebrew version grouped two strangely complementing pieces.
    One reported on an expected apology of Israel to Turkey due to the Freedom Flotilla crimes committed by Israel. A few days ago, Turkey and Israel became friends again after Israel agreed to supply spying equipment that had been frozen since 2011. In parallel, the two former allies are holding negotiations to end the rupture between them. Apparently, Israel would apologize for its crimes and would indemnify the hurt Turkish citizens while Turkey would drop its demand of Israel to end the siege on Gaza. If an agreement would be reached, it would be announced soon after a new government is formed in Israel.
    The last time Israel surrendered to such pressure was after it attacked Khaled Mashal. As often reported here, Israel understands only brute force as a negotiation tactic; after Turkey became a serious contestant to theEastern Mediterranean Gas Fields, Israel accepted a compromise. Israeli citizens seldom have a similar power; thus, Israel decided to sue those criticizing the State. This was the topic of the article placed next to the one on Turkey. This odd mix portrayed Israel’s real face, a bigot seeking to take advantage of the weak but subservient of those holding the real power.
    Suing State
    The Association for Civil Rights in Israel published these days a report on an unusual topic, it was titled Strategic Lawsuits Against Public Participation. It deals with a new trend, the State, its various organizations, corporations and large companies are systematically suing citizens criticizing them. The process is designed to maximize the harassment of the citizens, including trials for comments placed on innocuous internet forums.
    David Perl is a real-estate consultant; in 2011, he published several warnings in Tapuz (“orange fruit” in Hebrew), a popular Israeli portal, against the Eisenberg Group. The latter was selling agricultural terrains claiming that they will be “thawed” for urban construction shortly afterwards. The claim was a lie; buyers had no protection against it. The company sued Perl in two different courts (Nazareth and Hertzeliya) both far from his residence, so that he would be forced to move between these two cities.
    The company demanded him to pay a combined sum of roughly $500,000. In February 2013, following a complex saga, the President of the Supreme Court declared Perl innocent and sentenced the company to pay him roughly $500 for the harassment. The sum allotted won’t pay even for the costs caused by the judicial process. Following the sentence, Mr. Perl apologized for his use of words like “charlatans” in the forum but did not retract the facts.
    Mr. Perl’s case is just one of the many analyzed by the report. One of the lawyers who authored it said, “the main effect of these trials is not legal but social: it silences the complaints and hurts those making them.” This terror system is backed by the State. In the former Knesset, relevant legislation was fixed by the work of Meir Shitrit (then from party Kadima, now from HaTnua) and Yariv Levin (Likud). According to the new version, the suing party doesn’t need to show any proofs of damage if it is requesting less than NIS300,000 as damages.
    This is not a law, but State Terror. The trials are usually carried out against social organizations, activists, and regular citizens who complain on their violation by the State or its cherished corporations. A good example is the case of Avi Tamir, the man in the window at the top picture. He lives in Rehovot with his wife in a humble apartment; both are over 70 and retired. A few years ago the municipality decided to build a tower over his home. He placed the protests signs seen in the picture, which are not offensive in the Israeli context.
    He got a threatening letter from the municipality saying the signs are not allowed as per local regulations and that he would be sued for NIS50,000, well below the sum that requires providing proofs, but a fortune for the couple. The municipality is now waiting to begin the process after the next local elections; Mr. Tamir left the signs. This is State Terror.
    The lawyers analyzed also the typical letters sent by the companies. The Byzantyne, colorful text doesn’t translate well into English, but the trend was clear. Lawyers send accusation letters in which they define the crime, namely slander, but don’t provide details how it was committed. A citizen dared to answer them, asking the blaming lawyer in a florid style to please, please describe his offense so that he would be able to avoid committing it again. The corporate lawyer sent again the blaming letter, without providing any details. He can sue without proofs. This is State Terror.
    There is a Hebrew saying that translates as “to be smart on the weak;” it is used against those who attack the weak just because they can, while they refrain from even looking in the direction of those with power. It describes a state of cowardice, a state of violence, a society of ignorant lawlessness. It describes the State of Israel.

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     Addendum: The People’s Right to tell Unpleasant Truths

    Slander, also known as defamation, calumny, vilification, traducement, and libel, is defined as a statement that makes a claim, expressly stated or implied to be factual, that may give an individual, business, product, group, government, religion, or nation a negative or inferior image. Obviously, the claim must be false and communicated to someone other than the person defamed to create liability. The main international law dealing with people’s rights on the issue is the International Covenant on of Civil and Political Rights, which deals with the right to life, freedom of religion, freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, electoral rights and rights to due process and a fair trial.. In certain countries, slander is dealt with as a crime rather than a civil wrong. Yet, in 2012, the United Nations Commission on Human Rights ruled that the criminalization of libel violates Freedom of expression and is inconsistent with Article 19 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.