Category: Middle East

  • Anger over “Kill a Child” army shirts

    Anger over “Kill a Child” army shirts

    A T-shirt printed at the request of an IDF soldier in the sniper unit reading "I shot two kills."
    A T-shirt printed at the request of an IDF soldier in the sniper unit reading "I shot two kills."

    Jerusalem – Israeli soldiers wore T-shirts with a pregnant woman in cross-hairs and the slogan “1 Shot 2 Kills,” adding to a growing furor in the country over allegations of misconduct by troops during the Gaza war.

    “The smaller they are, the harder it is,” says another shirt showing a child in a rifle sight. Soldiers wore the shirts to mark the end of basic training and other military courses and they were first reported by the Haaretz daily.

    The military condemned the soldiers involved, but it was not immediately clear how many wore the shirts. They were not manufactured or sanctioned by the military and appear not to have been widely distributed.

    The shirts “are not in accordance with IDF values and are simply tasteless,” the military said in a statement. “This type of humor is unbecoming and should be condemned.” The army said it would not tolerate such behavior and would take disciplinary action against the soldiers involved.

    Haaretz showed pictures of five shirts and said they were made at the unit level – indicating that they were made for small numbers of troops, perhaps several dozen, at a time. It said they were worn by an unknown number of enlisted men in different units. The Tel Aviv factory that made many of the shirts, Adiv, refused to comment.

    Some of the shirts had blatant sexual messages. One battalion had a shirt made of a soldier standing next to a young woman with bruises, with the slogan, “Bet you got raped!” according to Haaretz.

    Others featured the phrase “Confirming the kill,” a reference to the shooting an enemy in the head from close range to ensure he is dead, a practice that the IDF denies.

    Israel’s military has come under increasing scrutiny after unidentified soldiers alleged that some troops opened fire hastily and killed Palestinian civilians during the Gaza war several months ago, including children, possibly because they believed they would not be held accountable under relaxed open-fire regulations. The military has ordered a criminal inquiry into soldiers accounts published in a military institute’s newsletter.

    On Monday, the military chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi, defended his troops.

    “I tell you that this is a moral and ideological army. I have no doubt that exceptional events will be dealt with,” Ashkenazi told new recruits. Gaza “is a complex atmosphere that includes civilians, and we took every measure possible to reduce harm to the innocent.”

    Palestinians too have glorified attacks on Israelis in the past. In the Gaza Strip, Hamas-controlled media consistently send messages that Jews cannot be trusted and that Israel is a bloodthirsty, militaristic state eager to seize Palestinian land and slaughter Palestinian children.

    The three-week Gaza offensive, launched to end years of rocket fire at Israeli towns, ended on Jan. 18. According to Palestinian officials, around 1,400 Palestinians were killed, most of them civilians. Thirteen Israelis died, three of them civilians

    Source:  www.vosizneias.com, Mar 23, 2009

  • US Jews may be ready to step into Armenian genocide debate

    US Jews may be ready to step into Armenian genocide debate

    Despite a serious strain in relations with Turkey as a result of harsh Turkish criticism of Operation Cast Lead, Israel has not changed its policy on the question of whether the killing in the early 20th century of some 1.5 million Armenians should be characterized as genocide.

    In this photo provided by the Photlure photo agency in Armenia, a boy pauses in front of a wall-sized poster depicting the faces of 90 survivors of the mass killings of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire, in Yerevan, Armenia.
    Photo: AP [file]

    This issue is once again on the agenda as US lawmakers introduced last week, as they do every spring, a resolution that would call the killings a “genocide.”

    “Our position on this has not changed,” one senior Israeli diplomatic official told The Jerusalem Post.

    Israel’s position on this matter was last formally articulated in March 2007, when the Knesset shelved a proposal for a parliamentary discussion on the issue.

    Health Minister Ya’acov Ben-Yizri, speaking on behalf of Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, said at the time: “As Jews and Israelis, we have special sympathy and a moral obligation to commemorate the massacres that were perpetrated against the Armenians in the last years of Ottoman rule. The state of Israel never denied these terrible acts. On the contrary, we understand fully the intense emotional feelings aroused by this, taking into consideration the number of victims, and the suffering of the Armenian people.”

    At the same time, Ben-Yizri also said that Israel understood that this was a “loaded” issue between the Armenians and Turks, and that Israel hoped “both sides will reach an open dialogue that will enable them to heal the wounds that have been left open.”

    The diplomatic official said that Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s vicious criticism of the IDF’s actions in Gaza had not altered Israel’s position on the Armenian genocide issue.

    Israel’s position on this is important, because it impacts the position of major American Jewish organizations which in the past have helped Turkey lobby against the legislation in Congress to declare the event a genocide.

    American Jewish leaders insist that “the relationships between Turkey, Israel and the United States remain very important,” said Conference of Presidents executive vice chairman Malcolm Hoenlein.

    “Our position hasn’t changed,” added Jess Hordes, head of the Anti-Defamation League’s Washington office. The position currently states that that a congressional resolution on the issue would be “counterproductive.”

    While the ADL has labeled what happened to the Armenians a genocide, Hordes noted, “this issue is best handled by the parties themselves” rather than by Congress. He also noted that since the Gaza operation, the ADL had seen Turkey take steps to deal with anti-Semitism domestically.

    “Hopefully the differences that emerged in this operation will be behind us. Both countries recognize they have strategic relations that are important to maintain.”

    But for all the assurances, some Jewish groups say they are beginning to see support for Turkey’s positions decrease among American Jews.

    In February, shortly after the worst of the Israel-Turkey row over Gaza, a senior official in a major American Jewish organization admitted that “no Jew or Israeli in his right mind will insult Turkey, but next time they might not come to Turkey’s aid or equivocate quite so much on the issue.”

    Another senior official, speaking to the Post on Tuesday, suggested the shift may be more dramatic.

    “The grassroots membership of the major organizations has never been happy about looking the other way about the massacre of Armenians, even if it happened so long ago. After all, ‘so long ago’ was just 25 years before the Holocaust,” the official said. “But [supporting Turkey] was seen as a matter of life or death for Israelis.”

    This has changed palpably, the official said. “Erdogan’s behavior in Davos was disgraceful. He called Israelis ‘baby-killers.’ He told Turkey’s parliament that the Jews control the media. He said things that, if he were a political leader in America, we’d be demonstrating outside his house. People are now asking themselves, ‘Who are we going to bat for?’ There’s not a lot of support in the grassroots for bending over backwards to meet the needs of Turkey right now.”

    Even before Erdogan’s outburst, the issue was a point of contention among some American Jewish advocacy groups. In 2007, ADL National Director Abe Foxman triggered a storm when he reversed the traditional American Jewish organizational position on the issue and, while in a dispute in the Boston area over the matter, released a statement saying that had the word “genocide” existed in the early 20th century, it would have been used to describe events of 1915 perpetrated by the Ottoman Empire against the Armenians.

    The Turks were infuriated at the time, warning that Turkish-Israeli ties could be harmed if the American Jewish organizations did not work – as they had done in the past – to ensure that the US Congress did not pass a resolution characterizing the massacre a genocide.

    The legislation was eventually removed from the table after then-US president George W. Bush and numerous former secretaries of state and defense wrote letters saying that passing the legislation would harm American interests.

    The Los Angeles Times reported last week that US President Barack Obama was hesitating on a campaign pledge to designate the killings as genocide. Obama is scheduled to visit Turkey on April 5, and is looking to improve ties with Ankara and enlist its help in dealing with Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan, something that would be complicated by calling the events genocide.

    The paper reported that improved relations between Turkey and Armenia were among the reasons the Obama administration was using to explain postponing a presidential statement on the matter.

    Hilary Leila Krieger and Allison Hoffman contributed to this report.

  • Significance of Gul’s Iraq visit

    Significance of Gul’s Iraq visit

    VISITS abroad by heads of state are different to those by heads of government. They are a symbolic endorsement of good relations between countries; prime ministerial visits are about the nitty-gritty of politics — trade, military agreement, and foreign policy decisions. That is as true for Turkey as any other country. The visit to Iraq by its president, Abdullah Gul, is therefore something of a landmark. No Turkish head of state has visited Baghdad in over 30 years, although Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was there for talks with his Iraqi counterpart Nuri Al-Maliki last July.

    That, however, was a political initiative and even then the Kurdish issue ensured that relations between the neighbors remained fraught. A year ago, Ankara dispatched thousands of troops into northern Iraq to crush militants from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) who used it as a base for their campaign of violence against Turkey — a campaign that over the past 25 years has resulted in 40,000 people killed. Since the offensive, there have been other Turkish raids.

    Although the Kurdish issue is far from resolved, President Gul’s visit is a clear indication of warming relations. It is a change based on mutual need. Even though a few months ago, Turkey still felt that Iraq was failing to stop the PKK, it knows that with American troops preparing to leave, it has to cooperate with Baghdad if the PKK is to be neutralized. Likewise, Iraq knows that it has no chance of normality if the PKK continues to threaten Turkey and the Turks respond with cross-border attacks. The stability of Iraq requires good relations between Baghdad and Ankara — and will require it all the more when US troops leave.

    Turkey has other concerns, not least the well-being of the Turkmens of northern Iraq. It is complex situation. That the government of one country should see itself as the protector of a community in the country next door has obvious dangers; local disputes could end up poisoning national policies — and in the case of Iraq, the Kurds and the Turkmens are anything but friends. Kirkuk, one of the main centers of the Turkmen population but which the Kurds want in their autonomous region in a new federal Iraq, could be such a poison.

    Turkey, not least because the city is also the center of northern Iraq’s oil wealth, does not want to see it fall into Kurdish hands. But then neither does Prime Minister Al-Maliki who is busy building alliances to ensure a strong central government following parliamentary elections later this year.

    His vision ties in neatly with Turkey’s that likewise sees a strong central government in a united Iraq as the best guarantee of dealing with the PKK and lowering Kurdish ambitions. But that is not certain and elections are still some way off. All eyes in Ankara (and Baghdad) will, therefore, be on the much-talked about grand Kurdish conference expected soon in northern Iraq at which the PKK will be asked to end its violence against Turkey. If it does so, it would spell a much-needed end to the troubles in southeast Turkey. It would also remove any impediment to normal relations between it and Iraq.

    That is what President Gul’s visit seems to herald.

    US striking new tone with Tehran

    THE West’s overarching aim of preventing Iran acquiring an atomic bomb is best achieved by a “grand bargain”, offering Iran security but making it part responsible for the security and stability of the region, said the Financial Times in an editorial yesterday. Excerpts:

    Barack Obama’s overture to Iran, delivered by video on the eve of Monday’s Iranian New Year, is a smart move, tone-perfectly delivered, and a clear departure not just from George W. Bush’s bellicose attitude but the visceral animosity that has bedeviled relations between Washington and Tehran since the Islamic Revolution of 30 years ago.

    His use of the formal title of Islamic Republic implies US recognition of the revolution and abandonment of regime change. The emphasis on rights and responsibilities — the sort of discourse tailored for, say, China — suits Iran’s sense of entitlement and ambition to be acknowledged as a regional power. The address is well aimed, furthermore, not just at Iran’s leaders but at the Iranians.

    The more recent history, in which Iranians feel under US and Western siege, has enabled the theocrats to consolidate their puritan hegemony and their dense network of material interests. But this artificial national unity cracks and debate flourishes when Iranians sense the West is willing to engage with them. Not for nothing were the mullahs discomfited by the advent of Obama: He faces them with choices.

    But the US and Europe, as well as Israel and the Arabs, face choices too. After the enlargement of Iranian influence that followed the toppling of Saddam Hussein’s regime, the resolution of most conflicts in the region — Iraq itself, Afghanistan, Israel-Palestine and Lebanon — needs at least Tehran’s quiescence. The West’s overarching aim of preventing Iran acquiring an atomic bomb is best achieved by a “grand bargain”, offering Iran security but making it part responsible for the security and stability of the region. If we ever reach that point — a big if — the US and its allies will have had to decide if they can accept that Iran has reached technological mastery of the full nuclear fuel cycle.

  • Turkish President Visits Iraq as Bombings Kill 34

    Turkish President Visits Iraq as Bombings Kill 34

    By Anthony Shadid and K.I. Ibrahim

    Washington Post Foreign Service
    Tuesday, March 24, 2009; Page A09

    BAGHDAD, March 23 — Bombs tore through two of Iraq’s most dangerous regions Monday, killing 34 people, in the third day of devastating attacks this month.

    A US soldier kneels by an Iraqi woman holding a baby as US and Iraqi troops distributed humanitarian aid in Baghdad, Iraq, Monday, March 23, 2009. (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban) (Hadi Mizban – AP)
    • Interactive Map: Big Bombings in Iraq

    The bombings came on a day that Iraq’s government had touted as another step in the restoration of normalcy to Baghdad. The capital buzzed with security for the arrival of Turkey’s president, Abdullah Gul, the first visit by a Turkish head of state in 30 years.

    U.S. officials have said attacks like Monday’s reflect desperation by insurgents, and cite numbers that show violence has dropped to levels not seen since 2003. But hundreds of Iraqis still die in attacks every month, and there is anxiety that violence may escalate as the U.S. military withdraws.

    Monday’s deadliest attack came when a bomber blew himself up inside a crowded tent at a funeral for the brother of a Kurdish official in Jalawla, in the fertile province of Diyala, northeast of Baghdad. Interior Ministry officials said 25 people were killed and 45 wounded, many of them mourners paying condolences. Local police said 20 people were killed and 44 wounded.

    Witnesses, reached by telephone, said the bomber exploded himself after the evening prayers, sending a fireball through the tent. By nightfall, nothing was left except the tent’s metal scaffolding, and chairs littering the ground. Witnesses said survivors carried out the dead and wounded, who screamed in pain.

    “We went inside the tent, and just a moment later, I heard a huge explosion and everything went black,” said Riyadh Kamil al-Qaisi, a 34-year-old brought to the hospital in Jalawla with wounds to his right leg and face.

    Snared in a still-resilient insurgency, Diyala remains one of Iraq’s most precarious regions. Its population is a mix of Sunni and Shiite, Arab and Kurd. Arabs there have bristled at what they view as Kurdish territorial ambitions, and insurgents still wield influence across the province.

    The funeral was for the brother of Khalil Abbas Khudadat, an official in the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, the party led by Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, officials said. Ibrahim Hassan Bajilan, a member of the Diyala provincial council and an official with Talabani’s party, said the majority of those killed and wounded were from his party.

    Earlier on Monday, police said a powerful blast tore through a house in Haswa, 15 miles east of Fallujah, killing nine people. Hospital officials said eight people were wounded. The Interior Ministry put the number of injured at 23.

    Police said the blast targeted Emad and Ayad al-Halbousi, brothers who served as leaders of Awakening — a tribal uprising that, with U.S. support, helped defeat insurgents in Sunni regions.

    The family of Ayad al-Halbousi discovered an explosive planted outside the house Monday morning, said Mohammed al-Zawbae, a Haswa police major. The family alerted police, who came to disarm it. As family members and neighbors waited outside in the street, another explosive tore through Emad al-Halbousi’s house before noon, he said.

    Both brothers were killed, along with three of their children, said Khalil al-Dulaimi, a doctor at Abu Ghraib Hospital, near the town.

    “We were at home when the police came and asked us to evacuate it to dismantle the explosives,” said Latifa Annad, a 50-year-old neighbor who had taken her children to a relative’s house, down the street, while the bomb was disarmed. “Then the explosion happened. I was wounded by flying glass.”

    It was the second attack in the region this month. On March 10, a suicide bomber targeting tribal leaders and security officials who had gathered for a reconciliation conference killed 33 people in a ramshackle vegetable market near the municipal office.

    In another attack Monday, Interior Ministry officials said a car bomb detonated in Tall Afar, 50 miles west of Mosul. One policeman was killed.

    Gul was welcomed at Baghdad International Airport by Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari and other officials in a visit that included talks with Talabani and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Turkey has pressed Baghdad and the government that runs the Kurdish autonomous region in northern Iraq to stop Kurdish rebels from launching attacks on Turkey from bases in Iraq. Those rebels have been fighting for autonomy in southeastern Turkey since 1984, in a struggle that has killed tens of thousands of people.

    In a news conference, Talabani said the rebels, loyal to a group known as the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, would have to end their fight from Iraq.

    “Either they will lay down arms, or they will leave our territory,” he said.

    Iraq wants Turkey to allow more water to flow through dams along the Tigris River, an issue of tremendous importance for a country that is largely desert.

    Correspondent Qais Mizher and special correspondents in Abu Ghraib and Baqubah contributed to this report.

  • Iraq and The Ghosts of 1956

    Iraq and The Ghosts of 1956

    Memorial of the Hungarian revolution in Budapest.

    The US’ actions – or inaction – during the Hungarian revolution and the First Gulf War should be taken into account when examining the next steps for Iraq, says Mitchell Cohen for World Affairs Journal.

    By Mitchell Cohen for World Affairs Journal

    So don’t be like all those people who could have saved themselves by their own efforts, but who abandoned their realistic hopes and turned in their hour of need to invisible powers – to prophecies and oracles and all the other nonsense that conspires with hope to ruin you.
    —The Athenians to the Melians in Thucydides, The Peloponnesian War

    [O]ut in the West we always used to consider it a cardinal sin to draw a revolver and brandish it about unless the man meant to shoot. And it is apt to turn out to be sheer cruelty to encourage men by words and not back them by deeds.
    —Teddy Roosevelt, explaining limits on the US response to a pogrom against Jews in Kishinev

    In America and the World, the recently published conversations between Zbigniew Brzezinski and Brent Scowcroft, the two former national security advisors speak to what is perhaps the most vexed foreign policy question before the new president: Can the US exit Iraq without wreckage becoming our legacy there?

    Brzezinski argues that we will be stuck “indefinitely” if we wait for Iraq to become “stable and secular or whatever.” In his view – the discussion took place in spring 2008 – the US military presence is now “perpetuating the problem.” In any event, he notes, Iraqi Kurdistan is semi-autonomous, Sunnis control much of the country’s middle, and Shiite militias dominate the south. When Scowcroft points out, “they’re fighting each other,” Brzezinski responds, “Fine, that’s their problem.” He acknowledges that “there may have to be a mini-civil war” following a US departure, but “after some skirmishing, there will be an internal accommodation.”

    Scowcroft distinguishes his own negative judgment of the war’s launch in 2003 from his reckoning about how we ought to cope with the war’s thorny consequences. Americans should make clear that we want to help Iraqis by saying “we can get out to the degree that you all get your act together.” Otherwise, Middle East powers may say: “First, you made the mess; now you’ve run and left it in our hands.” Both Scowcroft and Brzezinski argue in broadly “realist” terms, albeit with different political inflections. (Brzezinski says he doesn’t identify wholly with “realism.”) Neither seems overly concerned about the consequences of internal violence in Iraq. This dismissive tenor evokes that of an interview Brzezinski gave a decade ago to the French weekly Le Nouvel Observateur about the arming of Islamists against the Soviets during the Carter presidency. When asked about the invigoration of religious fundamentalists who might one day target the West, Brzezinski responded, “What is more important for world history? Taliban or the fall of the Soviet Empire? Some energized Islamists or the liberation of Central Europe and the end of the Cold War?”

    Cold War with the Soviet Union and hot war with Saddam Hussein are distinct matters, but there is not much moral distance between Brzezinski’s approach in 1998 and his formulation for today’s Iraq: Whether Americans engage you rightly or wrongly, he seems to say, you are a pawn. The practical perils embedded in these sorts of formulations should be fairly evident. It is difficult to see how, after the last six years, and whatever accords have been reached recently between Baghdad and Washington, we should not fret about worst case scenarios in Iraq. Civil war, mini or maxi, is not a Middle Eastern impossibility. It is easy to imagine the Kurds declaring independence should their current autonomy lose its protective cover. Turkey, fearful of implications for its own Kurdish minority, might invade and trigger all sorts of regional turmoil. Iran might find strife within Iraq preferable to the country’s stabilization as an Arab power. The human costs of such unhappy turns could be horrific, even more so than the original ill-planned American war and injudicious democracy-making. And these costs would be a direct consequence of US action.

    Were I a Kurd, I might worry about the extent to which Brzezinski’s attitude is representative of many Americans. This would be the trepidation of a member of a small, perpetually vulnerable people who knows that Americans have become justifiably tired of a war that went wrong in so many ways and whose rationales were so tainted. I might register how Scowcroft tends to be charier than Brzezinski about a swift pull-out, but also worry that his concern appears to be mostly practical. I might recall that Scowcroft was Henry Kissinger’s deputy when the Kurds revolted against Baath-ruled Iraq in the 1970s, with backing principally from Tehran and Washington. After the Shah made a deal with Baghdad, the Kurds were left to slaughter. Kissinger’s memoirs blame Iran’s ruler for the murderous aftermath, but explain that “in terms of a cold-blooded assessment of Iran’s security, the Shah’s decision was as understandable as it was painful.”

    If I were a Kurd, I might also recall that American and British leaders made public statements in the lead-up to and during the Gulf War of 1991 suggesting the good that might come of insurrections against Saddam Hussein. When Kurds (and Shiites) rose up, no help came. Scowcroft was central in restricting the war’s aim to evicting Iraq from Kuwait. This expulsion was a good in itself, and the limit made considerable sense from an American point of view. But while the Iraqi regime was indeed contained, Kurds and Shiites were left in the container.

    This is not an argument for or against particular US strategies and moves then or today; it is an attempt to complicate morally how we think about them, or at least one dimension of them. If you bill yourself as a hard “realist” in your approach to foreign policy – that is, if you think Washington should make only “tough,” narrowly conceived, geo-strategic calculations of “national interest,” and pretty much bracket anything that might be called “values,” then you will have little use for such an exercise. Nor will you have any more use for it if you consider yourself an unwavering idealist – that is, if you think values alone can determine politics, that they never conflict with other vital but perhaps foul imperatives, or if you think that the character of a regime determines entirely how it defines its interests. But if you think foreign policy, say that of the US, must entail an unfortunate, messy combination of these outlooks, and that the mix depends significantly on particular circumstances, then perhaps what follows will help clarify a little-examined category in wartime: the ethics of exhortation.

    Consider, then, two scenarios. Presented in somewhat imaginary form, their historical bases will be evident enough.

    A Powerful Country vies globally with a Formidable Rival. Their competition began just after a vast war, perhaps the worst humanity has known. In it, a common threat made them allies. But their interests diverge and so too their worldviews. Now they lead opposed blocs – call one the West and the other the East – in a standoff on a vital continent. Both have fearsome weapons. They prick each other verbally, yet neither wants war and so they respect, at least physically, each other’s turf.

    In the middle of the continent sits a small Unhappy Land. It was ingested into the East Bloc against its will. It lives, like all Bloc members, under one-party rule, and the Party shares the official “scientific” worldview of the Formidable Rival. Unfortunately, many citizens remain unscientific. So a secret police patrols life.

    The Powerful Country that leads the West wages “information wars” against the East in the name of freedom. The Formidable Rival campaigns on behalf of its official ideology. The leader of the Powerful Country – call him a President – is a former general. He doesn’t always approve of the rhetoric of his own foreign minister – let’s call him a “Secretary of State” – who is known for his Manichean worldview. The secretary of state calls for “roll back” of the East Bloc or to “liberate” its “captive nations” – but “peacefully.” He hopes, he says, to give the Formidable Rival “indigestion” by stirring up problems within its sphere of influence. Attitudes like his often inform “Radio Free All” (RFA), which was established by the Powerful Country’s intelligence services to broadcast into the East news and calls for liberation.

    Unrest begins late one autumn. Reform currents had emerged recently throughout the East Bloc, and demonstrators march for peaceful reform in the capital of the Unhappy Land. The worried ruling Party turns to a popular figure – let’s call him the Reformer – in the hope that things may be calmed. His public esteem is due to an earlier, brief tenure in which he modified some “scientific” policies. The Party, which always “consults” with its ultimate boss, the Formidable Rival, eventually ousted him. Now, as the order of things shakes, “consultations” return him to office.

    Shaking turns into commotion. The Reformer understands that his compatriots want change. He sides with them, but it is difficult to master the situation. An unruly dialectic plays out between his government and assertive demonstrators. Some rebels assault Party institutions and also attack some not-so-secret members of the secret police. The Formidable Rival’s alarm grows. It decides finally to ensure order – its own. In the chaotic meantime, the Reformer replaces one-party rule with a multi-party government.

    As events unfold, the president of the Powerful Country expresses sympathies publicly, but somewhat cautiously and a little awkwardly. His country’s “heart” goes out to the Unhappy Land, he declares. “Fervor and sacrifice […] in the name of freedom” would, he hopes, bring “real promise that the light of liberty soon will shine again in this darkness.” But he also makes clear that he will make no military moves on behalf of the insurgents. He has no intention of chancing catastrophic war over a small Unhappy Land.

    Nonetheless, RFA transmissions are impassioned. Its broadcasters are mostly émigrés from the Unhappy Land. They are often as Manichean as the secretary of state. They urge on the insurgents and, in contrast to the president, even suggest that western help will come. Decades later, a political analyst observed that “it was too much to expect” the freedom fighters in the Small Land “to understand the distinction” between the government of the Powerful Country “and the pronouncements of a radio station which had been expressly created as a vehicle for promulgating the ‘liberation’ policy which the secretary of state had claimed to be his own invention.” While the freedom fighters press on, the Reformer declares the independence of his Unhappy Land from the East Bloc. He appeals to the United Nations, but to little avail.

    The Formidable Rival’s troops finish their job. Refugees flee across the borders. The Old Regime is back. The Reformer is executed. “If my life is needed to prove that not all Scientists of Society are enemies of the people,” declares the Reformer on his condemnation, “I gladly make the sacrifice.”

    Indigestion dissipates.

    Here is our second scenario. It is three and a half decades later. The same Powerful Country goes to war far from its own borders, but in a perennially unstable part of the world. It has reason. An especially Brutal Regime there has occupied a resource-rich Principality. The Powerful Country, whose presence is still felt globally, has an interest in that small realm’s assets.

    The Brutal Regime is headed by a megalomaniacal Dictator. He wants the Principality’s resources to help pay for an indecisive and ghastly war he waged for a decade against another bordering state. Matters here are complicated because this Theocratic Neighbor has its own regional objectives as well as intense antipathies, on historical and ideological grounds, toward the Powerful Country of the West. The dislike is mutual and the Powerful Country was undismayed when the Brutal Regime and its Theocratic Neighbor were unable to defeat each other in their war. A useful balance of power resulted.

    The Powerful Country doesn’t act precipitously against the Brutal Regime. Its President obtains international approval and fashions a multi-national coalition. Fortune has helped too. His country’s old Formidable Rival, one of the Dictator’s friends, has been enfeebled just recently due to what its outmoded “scientific” ideology had called “internal contradictions.” The President has considerable flexibility as he maneuvers on the international scene. He also obtains legislative backing at home. And so a thirty-member multinational coalition, led by the Powerful Country, expels the Brutal Regime from the Principality. The coalition does not go so far as to raze the Brutal Regime itself. International sanction was given only to undoing its initial aggression. Or, more precisely, to undoing its external aggression, not that which it commits regularly against its own citizens.

    Developments now make our scenario increasingly complex, even morally problematic. During the run-up to war, and during some of the fighting, the President and some of his chief aides suggested publicly that rebellion would be a good idea for discontented and persecuted populations within the borders of the Brutal Regime. Vocal seconds came from some coalition allies. The President himself urged the world to recall the 1930s and the price of appeasement. What the Dictator did to the Principality was akin to “what Hitler did to Poland.” Just after the shooting began, an allied prime minister spoke about the Dictator in these terms: “I strongly suspect that he may yet become a target of his own people […] I, for one, will not weep for him.” A few weeks into the fighting, the President hoped aloud that the Brutal Regime’s citizens might “take matters into their own hands.” His Secretary of State said on television that an end to the war would “be a heck of a lot easier if  […]that leadership were not in power.”

    So it was that Oppositionists in the northern and southern territories of the Brutal Regime thought that coalition forces would aid them if they rebelled. There were all these public statements, but also radio broadcasts from the coalition and, or so Oppositionists later said, contacts with the coalition that indicated likewise. Mutiny begins. But no help comes, and the Dictator unleashes his characteristic ferocity. Tens of thousands die. Hundreds of thousands flee toward the borders. Yet the President of the Powerful Country, his Secretary of State and National Security Advisor are loath to intervene. They fear, with reason, that their soldiers will end up in a quagmire, caught in the midst of civil war. They fear, with reason, the daunting task of occupying a tumultuous land. If only the Brutal Dictator were dispatched by one of his own. If only he were replaced by another, more compliant, Strong Man. After all, a counter-balance is still needed to the Theocratic Neighbor.

    In the meantime, allies and public opinion grow distressed by television reports showing murderous attacks on hapless refugees who flee to encampments on freezing, mountainous borders. A leading legislator in the Powerful Country observes that “anytime you get into a conflict like this, there are certain obligations that flow from it.” Another declares that his country has “a moral obligation to do what we can” to stop the slaughter of “those who have the courage to resist.” Something, finally, is done in a circumscribed manner. The Dictator is contained, although he is left in power, all while a measure of protection is provided for his victims. The coalition establishes “Shelter Zones.” It does not occupy the ravaged country but uses control of the skies to thwart further attacks. An “umbrella” covers the battered populations in the country’s north and south, at least for the time being.

    Hungary, 1956. The Gulf War, 1991. The quotations in the preceding accounts are genuine although the historical narratives have been somewhat streamlined. There are sufficient similarities and differences between the two cases to make their comparison worthwhile. In both, the US signaled friendship for popular rebellion and was then prepared to close its eyes to the consequences. It would be surprising if antagonistic powers did not foment discontent within the other’s domains, yet the moral problem concerns how far this may go. Some political philosophers distinguish jus ad bellum, the justice of going into combat in the first place, from jus in bello, the rightness of this or that action during hostilities. These categories address, traditionally, the ethics of hot wars, but they bring up issues that can apply to a cold one too. Although the Hungarian Rebellion did entail bloodshed, this was, first, a question of jus in bello frigido. Washington did not provoke it, but sought – vocally, loudly – “indigestion” in the East Bloc. Hungarians, of course, had their own purpose. It was to remedy their own predicament, not to serve instrumentally, as an ailment to further the strategic needs of others.

    The Kremlin was the principal criminal in 1956. American policy, however, carried a moral burden. The Hungarians became little more than means to an end in Washington’s policy. Richard Nixon, then vice president, remarked a few months before the revolt that it would not be “unmixed evil” were a “Soviet iron fist” to come down hard on an east or central European country. Within days of Hungary’s defeat, the CIA was discussing how best to exploit politically the fleeing refugees. “There was no basis for our giving military aid to Hungary,” Secretary of State John Foster Dulles said later. “We had no commitment to do so and we did not think that to do so would either assist the people of Hungary or the people of Europe or the rest of the world.”

    If a moral burden comes with the American position, it is confounded by some realistic calculations that turn out to harbor a moral problem too. Had Washington lived up to its own rhetoric and intervened, cold war would have become hot. Hot war meant nuclear war. The consequences would have been by any reckoning vastly disproportionate to the plentiful misery brought to Hungarians by defeat to their revolution.

    What was left after the shooting stopped in Budapest? An unjust peace, and little to do about it. Hungarians faced repression and that was “their problem.” Yet when that unjust peace was undone in 1989, the US, then under President George H W Bush, was adroit and discreet in its public words. Bush thought back to anti-Soviet revolts in our efforts to transform countries like East Germany in 1953, Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968, and Poland in 1981. “I did not want to encourage a course of events which might turn violent,” he later explained, “and get out of hand and which we then couldn’t –  or wouldn’t – support, leaving people stranded on the barricades.” This care fostered peaceful revolution.

    The same cannot be said of another part of the world in 1991. Substantial dangers accompanied the Gulf War, yet none compared to nuclear war. The Soviet bloc had unraveled and Moscow, long a chief supporter of Baghdad, sanctioned the UN-blessed, US -led coalition that defeated Saddam. The principal post-war menaces, as seen from Washington, were two-fold. First, there was the danger of a Vietnam-like quagmire if coalition forces occupied the entirety of Iraq instead of restricting themselves to liberating Kuwait. The president and his advisors (rightly) perceived the perils of reconstructing a fractious land that had been held together by pitiless muscle. The second apprehension was that a weak Iraq would be unable to counterbalance Iran. It is one thing to defeat a foe; it is trickier to guarantee simultaneously that the beaten foe can stand up afterward to a third party. The Kurdish and Shiite uprisings complicated all this. “Neither revolt had a chance,” Colin Powell later wrote, “Nor, frankly, was their success a goal of our policy. President Bush’s rhetoric urging Iraqis to overthrow Saddam, however, may have given encouragement to the rebels. But our practical intention was to leave Baghdad enough to survive as a threat to Iran.”

    The president insisted later that the US intended only to promote a military coup against Saddam, not a mass response. Yet his own words and those of others belie this contention. Credulity is strained further by Scowcroft’s statement that “we did not expect the severity of the attacks on the Kurds.” For this to be so, we must imagine that the administration knew nothing of the fate of the Kurds in the 1970s or of Saddam’s butchery of tens of thousands of them in 1988. Saddam’s military prowess was contained, but this did not thwart his human rights abuses in areas under his control. Sanctions would cause problems for him, but he would bolster his power at the expense of the rest of his population. This was an unjust peace if ever there was one.

    The parallels between Hungary and the Gulf War raise queasy matters. They went unaddressed by the George W Bush administration in its justifications of war in 2003. Neither were they addressed by the war’s foes, who often seemed more focused on chastising the White House than attending to the fate of people living in Iraq. Did Americans inherit moral burdens because of actions by an American government in 1991? If yes, what could have been reasonably commensurate amends? And what are the implications for 2009?

    The answer to the first question must be yes, and this in turn broaches an array of subjects that philosophers and commentators have contested in recent years concerning reparations and statutes of limitations. Some, mostly on the left, have proposed that recompense is due to descendents of slaves or Native Americans or the victims of colonialism. These populations suffer, the argument goes, from wrongs of previous centuries that still impact on lives today. But if you think this is so and recognize also that a great harm was done in 1991, must we not think similarly about Iraqi Kurds and Shiites? Some American pundits chastised the French government for its anti-war position in 2003, on the grounds that the US sacrificed to liberate France during World War II. But Iraqi Kurds and Shiites sacrificed much. They became targets more recently than World War II, after the US and coalition allies suggested publicly, multiple times (and in multiple ways) that they should rebel against a known serial persecutor. Should not the U.S. and its allies have been obligated to help these insurgents?

    One could contend with considerable justification that there was a similar burden in the Hungarian case. As we know, there was a mitigating factor that would have prevented American intervention, and this was because it would have created a greater moral burden: nuclear war. This political and moral conflict between two principles – avoiding the massive deaths that would have accompanied nuclear exchanges and helping a population that the US encouraged to rebel – was not present in the Gulf War. Yet the failure (at first) to help the Kurds and Shiites cannot by itself qualify the Gulf War as unjust for a simple reason. Kuwait was freed. There was jus ad bellum for some, but not for others because of flawed jus in bello. The ensuing peace was just for Kuwaitis, unjust for the Kurds and Shiites. What, then, could have been amends? Coalition participants created safe havens and no-fly zones, but this was a humanitarian duty and provided, at best, provisional protection. It did not secure self-determination for the victims; it left them dependent on the outside world and in perpetual vulnerability. Consider policy twists by one coalition ally. France pressed at the war’s end to protect the Kurds. Six years later, after Jacques Chirac succeeded François Mitterrand as president, Paris suspended its role safeguarding them and limited its role shielding the Shiites. This was because American missiles were launched against Baghdad without consulting Paris. But neither were Kurds and Shiites consulted; the French move demonstrates precisely why the Gulf War’s end was an unjust peace.

    Some philosophers, as far back as Aristotle, argue that rectification of injustice ought to entail the return of an injured party to pre-harm circumstances. In the Iraqi case this, obviously, would have been senseless since it would mean delivering Kurds and Shiites to foreseeable slaughter. Still, their basic life circumstances could have been transformed. This, of course, presumes that Kurds and Shiites, for whatever their internal differences, ought to have each been considered as collectivities, rather than solely as individuals who suffered. Indeed, they were not targeted by Saddam as rebelling individuals but as rebelling Kurds and Shiites. Nor were coalition calls to rebel directed toward individuals.

    So how could amends commensurate to the harm have meant something less than freeing Kurds and Shiites from the ongoing menace of Saddam’s regime, which is to say ending it? This might be construed as an argument for the war that began in 2003. It is not. Scowcroft is right; one’s view of the war’s launch is a separate question from what should or should not be done now. All the more so because one potent argument against the war was that Bush II would not conduct it properly. This seems irrefutable now. If opting for war carries more ethical liability than almost any other political choice, the inability to conduct a war properly speaks decisively against entering it. Yet this last point also fails to address unjust peace and why it was unjust. We are left in a messy overlap of realism and idealism, with contradictory demands and lessons.

    One lesson is obvious: leaders need to be wary of calling on other peoples to take perilous actions. Consider the justification given often by the Bush I team about 1991 – that their exhortations or suggestions were misunderstood by Kurds and Shiites. Recall the words ascribed to Henry II within the hearing of his knights in 1170: “Who will rid me of this meddlesome priest?” The knights went on to murder Thomas Becket. The King repented but didn’t also explain that the word “Who” was ambiguous, the phrase “rid me” misconstrued, and that actually another option had been suggested against the priest.

    It is not evident the lessons of 1956 and 1991 have been learned. Senator John McCain, then the presumptive Republican nominee for president, apparently called Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili during last summer’s violent wrangle with Russia and told him, “Hang in there […]. We are not going to let this happen […]. We are doing everything we can to stop this aggression.” Although this statement addressed a leader in private and not a citizenry in public, it raises the same kind of problem. There were very limited things the UScould or was willing to do either for the president or the population of Georgia, just as there were few actions the US would take on behalf of Hungary.

    The ethical quandary concerns the instrumental use of others in wartime. On one level, instrumentality is intrinsic to war – even your own troops count as tools. A government might justify instrumental use of a foreign people if, balancing out other possibilities, it is likely to help thwart a military catastrophe with especially dark consequences. The opposite would have been the result had the US intervened in Hungary; nuclear war would have produced the darkest of consequences. This was not the case in Iraq. Even if coalition casualties might have been lessened due to revolts within Iraq, there was no danger that the coalition would have lost the war absent the uprisings. And the uprisings encompassed, unavoidably and predictably, civilian populations. Both the American president and the British prime minister appealed to the Iraqi citizenry; it was for more than indigestion in Baghdad. It was for the sort of upheaval that would place the rebels and their surrounding populations at massive risk. It is this massive and foreseeable jeopardy that makes such instrumentalism wrong.

    It also points us to two ideas that might regulate the instrumental use of foreign peoples during a war, cold or hot. The first is simple: you must make the limits of your own commitments apparent to them. The US posture was easily misconstrued in the Hungarian case. The president stated plainly that the US would not intervene militarily, but other remarks, especially public statements by his secretary of state over several years, and broadcasts from Radio Free Europe, could easily have led Hungarians to expect otherwise. In the midst of a hot war, Iraq in 1991, American and British leaders encouraged rebellion, as we have seen. Hence a second principle: it should only be permissible to rouse foreign populations to behavior that is likely to place them in life-threatening circumstances if you stand also ready to act as if they were your allies.

    When the Iraqi military fought American, French, British, Syrian, Saudi, and  the other soldiers of the thirty-odd coalition partners in 1991, all these anti-Saddam forces were obligated as allies to aid each other. When Israel, a non-coalition ally of the United States, was attacked by Saddam’s missiles, Washington asked Jerusalem not to retaliate and came to its assistance. This was clearly the right thing to do and not just for utilitarian reasons; the US asked a non-coalition ally to suffer assault for the sake of US interests. Why, then, ought there not to have been military support for populations in Iraq that rose up against Saddam’s regime at US bidding and then suffered attack? Why should they not have been treated immediately as if they were coalition allies?

    The implications extend beyond 1991. The US cannot treat the circumstances of Iraqis as simply “their problem.” All this points to the need for an international effort to secure the future of Iraq’s citizens through whatever difficult transitions may come in the next years. Colin Powell said of Iraq, “If you break it, you own it.” He meant that if you bring down a regime, you have the responsibility to govern its territory. The US didn’t exactly break Iraq (our media ought to talk a little about what Saddam did at Abu Ghraib before America’s wretched record there); and we do not own it. We do have a moral burden. Iraqis have a Shiite-dominated government in what may be deceptively calming circumstances brought by the American surge. The world is still uncertain for the Kurds, even if they have, arguably, the best circumstances in memory. Still, we cannot contend simply that the US must “get out quickly” or that “we must stay.” We need some complex thinking, moral and practical, about a situation that is as knotty as can be. We helped to make it, not just in 2003 but in 1991.

    My accounts of Hungary and Iraq draw from and are indebted to numerous government, journalistic and scholarly sources. Among them are: Charles Gati, Failed Illusions: Moscow, Washington, Budapest, and the 1956 Hungarian Revolt (Washington, D.C./Stanford, CA: Woodrow Wilson Center Press/Stanford University Press, 2006); Johanna C. Granville, The First Domino: International Decision Making during the Hungarian Crisis of 1956 (College Station: Texas A & M University, 2004); Victor Sebestyen, Twelve Days: The Story of the 1956 Hungarian Revolution (New York: Pantheon, 2006); Nicholas J. Wheeler, Saving Strangers: Humanitarian Intervention in International Society (Oxford, England: Oxford University Press, 2000); Lawrence Freedman and Efraim Karsh, The Gulf Conflict, 1990-91 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1993); Michael R. Gordon and Bernard E. Trainor, The Generals’ War: The Inside Story of the Conflict in the Gulf (New York: Little Brown, 1995); Christian Alfonsi, Circle in the Sand (New York: Doubleday, 2006). Note that the historical “Reformer” (Imre Nagy) in the “Unhappy Land” said “Communists,” not “Scientists of Society,” when he was condemned.


    Mitchell Cohen is co-editor of Dissent magazine and a professor of political science at Bernard Baruch College and the Graduate School of the City University of New York.

    Source:  www.isn.ethz.ch, 18 Mar 2009

  • New Alliances In Iraq Cross Sectarian Lines

    New Alliances In Iraq Cross Sectarian Lines

    Political Jockeying Suggests An Emerging Axis of Power

    In Baghdad, Saleh al-Mutlak, a leading secular Sunni Arab politician, says his supporters will ally with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, of the Shiite Dawa party, in four provinces. (By Andrea Bruce — The Washington Post)


    By Anthony Shadid

    Washington Post Foreign Service
    Friday, March 20, 2009; Page A01

    BAGHDAD, March 19 — Six weeks after provincial elections, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has allied himself with an outspoken Sunni leader in several provinces and broached a coalition with a militant, anti-American cleric, suggesting the emergence of a new axis of power in Iraq centered on a strong central government and nationalism.

    Negotiations are still underway in most provinces, distrust remains entrenched among nearly all the players, and agreements could crumble. But the jockeying after the Jan. 31 elections indicates that politicians are assembling coalitions that cross the sectarian divide ahead of parliamentary elections later this year, a vote that will shape the country as the U.S. military withdraws.

    “There is a new political map,” said Anwar al-Luheibi, a Sunni adviser to Maliki, who is a Shiite. “And I anticipate this map will be far better than the one we had before.”

    The negotiations and dealmaking mark a departure from politics that have hewed almost exclusively to ethnic and sectarian lines, fomenting the discord that brought Iraq to the precipice of civil war in 2006 and 2007. They represent the first round of a great game that may resolve a question unanswered since Saddam Hussein’s fall in 2003: What coalition of interests will find the formula to wield power in Iraq from Baghdad?

    With his strong performance in the provincial elections, Maliki is the front-runner in forging such an alliance, a remarkable ascent for a lawmaker considered weak and pliable when he was put forward as a consensus candidate for prime minister three years ago.

    Forgoing the slogans of his Islamist past for a platform of law and order, his party won a majority of seats on the council in Basra, Iraq’s second-largest city, and emerged as the single biggest bloc in Baghdad and four other provinces in the south, which has a Shiite Muslim majority. In most provinces, though, his party must make coalitions if it hopes to help determine who will fill the governorship and other key provincial positions.

    Saleh al-Mutlak, a leading secular Sunni Arab politician known for his nationalism and strident opposition to the U.S. occupation, said his supporters will ally with Maliki in four provinces: Diyala, Salahuddin, Baghdad and Babil. Mutlak heads the Iraqi National Dialogue Front, but his supporters ran under different labels in provincial contests. Mutlak said Ayad Allawi, a former prime minister who led a secular list in the campaign, will also join the alliances.

    The convergence of their interests is a stark contrast to the alliances that followed elections in 2005, which Sunni Arabs largely boycotted. Their refusal to vote gave religious Shiites and Kurds disproportionate power in provinces such as Baghdad, Diyala and Nineveh, all with substantial Sunni populations. In predominantly Shiite southern Iraq and Sunni western Iraq, power coalesced around ostensibly religious parties, whose members built their appeal on clandestine organizations in exile, underground networks under Hussein, support from Iran and other neighbors and, occasionally, the end of a militiaman’s gun.

    This time, some coalitions seem to be based on ideology: a strong central government that Maliki, along with secular candidates such as Allawi and Mutlak, have endorsed, as well as opposition to the kind of federalism espoused by Maliki’s Shiite rivals, who favor a Shiite-ruled zone in the south, and Kurdish parties that control an autonomous region in the north. Both Maliki and Mutlak have rallied support among Arab and nationalist constituents by opposing Kurdish territorial claims, particularly around the contested city of Kirkuk.

    Mutlak draws backing from among the still-numerous supporters of Hussein’s Baath Party in Sunni regions, and he has long pushed for reconciliation with its members. Despite his reputation as a Shiite hard-liner when he came to power in 2006, Maliki echoed the call this month. In a speech, he urged Iraqis to reconcile with rank-and-file Baathists, those he described as “forced and obliged at one time to be on the side of the former regime.”

    He declared that it was time “to let go of what happened” in the past.

    Mutlak said he told Maliki in a meeting two months ago that “there was a time when you stood against me on those issues. ‘You should be happy I changed,’ he told me.” Smiling in the interview, Mutlak joked that first the prime minister “stole the government from us, and now he’s trying to steal our political speech from us.”

    Mutlak said that Maliki had proposed an alliance for parliamentary elections, too. But, he said, “we’re still studying the message.”

    Since the fall of Hussein, religious Shiites and Kurds had effectively served as the coalition at the heart of power in Iraq. Maliki’s emergence has upset that formula, and virtually every component of the Shiite alliance has now gone its own way. The bloc that claimed to speak on behalf of long-reticent Sunnis has splintered, too, unable even to agree on a replacement for the speaker of parliament, who resigned in December.

    Fayed al-Shamari, a leader of Maliki’s Dawa party in Najaf who will serve on the provincial council there, said he foresees a grand coalition for the December parliamentary elections that would join Maliki with influential Sunni leaders, elements of the U.S.-backed Sunni movement that turned against the insurgency and perhaps even Moqtada al-Sadr, a militant Shiite cleric whose followers witnessed a political resurgence in the January vote. Strikingly, it would not include Maliki’s other Shiite rivals or Kurds.

    A hint of that alignment emerged in Wasit province, where Maliki’s supporters were reported to have joined with Allawi’s list and Sadr’s followers.

    “There’s a great possibility for this,” Shamari said, although even he questioned whether it could withstand the seismic conflicts over the very nature of the Iraqi state, namely its power in relation to the provinces. “With any coalition, you have an ambition for it to be permanent,” he said. “But ambition doesn’t always match reality.”

    Mutlak envisioned three main groups competing in the December vote: A list that he led, Maliki’s group and an alliance of Kurds and religious parties — both the Shiite Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and the Sunni-led Iraqi Islamic Party. One example of the third grouping has emerged in Diyala province, where the Supreme Council agreed to an alliance with the Islamic Party, said Ridha Jawad Taqi, a lawmaker from the Supreme Council.

    Mutlak, an agricultural engineer who grew wealthy under Hussein’s government and is sometimes spoken of as a candidate for Iraq’s presidency, said any future national alliance with Maliki would depend on cooperation in the provincial councils.

    “We want to see what he’s going to give,” he said in the interview. “Is he going to behave as a real partner or is he going to try to isolate the others?”

    He said he was still skeptical. “We don’t think Maliki is going to act in a democratic way. We’re worried that he’s collecting power in a dictatorial way.”

    Mutlak said it was his understanding that Maliki had already reached provincial alliances with an electoral list supported by Sadr’s followers, a deal that Shamari, of Maliki’s Dawa party, called likely. But spokesmen for Sadr and the list of candidates he supported said negotiations are ongoing.

    “We think they only want alliances in the provinces where they’re facing difficulties. They reject us in the provinces where they feel comfortable,” said Ameer al-Kinani, the head of the Trend of Free Independents, the list Sadr’s followers supported.

    Sadr’s supporters did especially well in Dhi Qar and Maysan provinces in the south, where negotiations are underway to pick top officials.

    To help win their backing, Sadr’s officials have insisted Maliki play a role in freeing their supporters in prison. Hazem al-Araji, a Sadr spokesman, estimated that as many as 1,500 remained in U.S. custody and 2,500 in Iraqi custody. Like other Sadr officials, he complained that security forces are still arresting their followers in southern provinces.

    “There has been a step toward each other,” said Salah al-Obeidi, another Sadr spokesman in Kufa, near the sacred city of Najaf. “But until now, Maliki’s coalition refuses to give any kind of guarantees and any kind of details of the map they will follow in representing the provinces. This arouses many fears with our friends.”

    Earlier in his tenure, when his position was far weaker, Maliki courted the Sadrists. Last year, though, he turned on them, dispatching the military against their militiamen in Baghdad and Basra. This time around, Sadr’s supporters say, Maliki seems to be trying to negotiate from a position of strength.

    “He’s not in need of the Sadrists anymore?” Obeidi asked. “Maybe, maybe.”

    But like Mutlak, he said they will watch the behavior of Maliki’s officials in the provincial councils to determine whether they could enter a broader alliance in the next election. “Until now we haven’t decided,” Obeidi said. “Yes, there are big obstacles between us. They can all be bridged. But until now, Maliki has not acted on any promises he made us.”

    Asked if he trusts Maliki, Obeidi shrugged. “I don’t trust any political figure,” he said.

    Special correspondents Zaid Sabah and Qais Mizher contributed to this report.