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  • Turkey opts out of NATO talks with Israel

    Turkey opts out of NATO talks with Israel

    By TOVAH LAZAROFF

    Tunisia, Egypt also reportedly dismissed potential meeting; group intended to discuss security in region has not met since 2008.

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    Erdogan visits Egypt Photo: AMR ABDALAH DALSH / REUTERS

    Turkey, Tunisia and Egypt rejected plans to hold a meeting of NATO’s Mediterranean Dialogue group, Turkey’s Hurriyet Daily News reported on Saturday. Israel is one of the Dialogue group’s seven member-nations.

    The Mediterranean Dialogue group for Foreign Ministers – which also includes Algeria, Jordan, Mauritania and Morocco – has not met since 2008, according to Hurriyet.

    A Turkish official told Hurriyet that the meetings had not been held because of political problems between Israel and Arab member-nations.

    Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office had no comment.

    News that Turkey was among the countries that nixed the meeting comes as Jerusalem and Ankara struggle to reestablish diplomatic relations.

    Ties between Israel and Turkey were severed in 2010 after the IDF raided the Gaza-bound Mavi Marmara and killed nine Turkish activists.

    Last month, at the end of US President Barack Obama’s visit to Israel, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu apologized to Turkey for the deaths.

    Turkey, in turn, agreed to reestablish diplomatic ties.

    However, it then asked Israel to delay sending a delegation to Turkey to discuss issues relating to the restoring of diplomatic relations.

    The delegation, which had been scheduled to leave for Ankara at the start of the month, is now scheduled to depart on April 22.

    via Turkey opts out of NATO talks with Israel | JPost | Israel News.

  • What does an Israel-Turkey Awakening Mean for Mediterranean Gas?

    What does an Israel-Turkey Awakening Mean for Mediterranean Gas?

    After nearly three years of tension, Israel’s olive branch to Turkey in late March was welcome news to most of the Eastern Mediterranean, not to mention Washington. With Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu offering an apology for Israeli actions against a Turkish aid flotilla in 2010, it seemed possible we might see some cohesion on the region’s roster of current challenges. Announcing a full resumption of diplomatic ties, the two governments opened the door to an assortment of possible joint efforts, including how to deal with a beleaguered Syria and a new Egypt. However, what stood out for many was what it all would mean for the region’s energy options.

    Location of the Eastern Mediterranean (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

    After years of fruitless exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean, Israel hit upon billions in potential revenue and energy independence in 2009 with the discovery of one of the largest offshore finds in a decade. Since then, the country has rushed to exploit the reserves with the help of foreign partners, including Texas’s Noble Energy, in hopes of bringing in an estimated $80 billion over the coming years. However, while Israeli gas efforts officially started flowing during the final days of March, the challenge of just how to transport the product to worthwhile markets like Europe remains a challenge. Sure they’d explored alterative options, including a Cyrus-Greece line or LNG plants. But with Turkey eager to get involved in a gas bonanza they’d previously only watched from the sidelines and with the economic stability to back up their plans, Israel’s surest best now seems to rest in Ankara.

    So, with Israel and Turkey now willing to talk and plan for the future, where does this leave poor Cyprus? Always willing to play the cautiously neutral middleman as its neighbors laid claims to the region’s newfound gas fortunes, the partial island nation is finding itself newly isolated in the push to cash in on the region’s gas riches.

    This could not come at a worse time for Cyprus. Over the last few weeks, the country’s fiscal situation has gone from bad to worse as a push for a financial bailout package ended with a series of missteps that dashed any remaining confidence in the country’s economy. In addition to nearly destroying the country’s bloated banking system, the experience left them in a weaker position when it comes to developing their offshore claims.

    Cypriot leaders, including newly elected Prime Minister Nicos Anastasiades have insisted that gas revenues be left alone when it comes to dealing with the country’s current crisis. In order to avoid selling off the country’s future wealth in a panic to ensure a quick bailout or loans, gas revenue would be kept separate and not be considered until production efforts really started bringing in revenue, which they expect as early as 2018 or 2019. Even during recent negotiations to secure funding to fend off a collapse of their banking system and restructure a Russian loan, Cyprus balked at the idea of exchanging support for exploration and production rights to their offshore claims.

    However, as the dust has now settled and the reality of the country’s path towards economic recovery has become a little more clear – long and difficult – the ability to hold off on potential gas revenue has become much more difficult. Even with financial support pledged from Europe and the IMF, Cyprus may likely soon have to appeal for further support to stay afloat. Keeping gas off the table during those discussions may soon become impossible.

    In a more immediate, logistical sense, Cyprus’s role in exporting gas out of the region and to Europe has become a lot more difficult in terms of being able to pay to play. With an economy in tatters and investor confidence in the dumps, its unclear just how the country’s leaders plan to support their own energy infrastructure development, much less taking part in regional efforts linking the Eastern Mediterranean with more eager markets. Israel may have floated early partnerships when offshore gas first became a reality, but given Nicosia’s current financial standing,

    Here, it appears is where Turkey enters the picture. While Cyprus will be struggling to find ways to meet even basic spending needs, Turkey has shifted billions towards infrastructure projects in recent years.

    For now, Cyprus has pledged to push on with or without regional partnerships they explored over the last year. Also working with Noble Energy, Cyprus lays claim to an estimated 60 trillion cubic feet of offshore gas reserves, which they hope will start flowing within the next few years. While they intend to move on alone if they have to, moving the gas out of Cyprus may prove challenging or at the very least, very expensive. Early proposals include building a pipeline to Cyprus where Liquefied Natural Gas plants could process the reserves for transport to the rest of Europe, though such an effort would cost an estimated $13.3 billion. For a country that just barely nailed down a bailout package worth about as much, this is not an easy task.

    via What does an Israel-Turkey Awakening Mean for Mediterranean Gas? – Forbes.

  • Are Israel and Turkey friends again?

    Are Israel and Turkey friends again?

    Turkey will not alter its hawkish stance, yet Israel needs Turkey as a strategic partner. But not at any price.

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    Billboards put up in Ankara to thank Erdogan for getting Israel to apologize for Marmara incident. Photo: REUTERS/Umit Bektas

    For many years, the relationship between Israel and Turkey has been extremely good. The close cooperation between the countries has been reflected in diplomatic relations, tourism, military cooperation and security, including joint military maneuvers and extensive defense trade.

    Behind the scenes, there has also been cooperation in the intelligence field. However, Operation Cast Lead brought about a dramatic change.

    Immediately thereafter, relations began to deteriorate as a result of initiatives carried out by Turkey’s leadership, supposedly in response to Israeli violence against Palestinians. In reality, however, it was only an excuse Turkey used to cover up its aspiration to become an influential player in the Muslim world.

    Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan gradually began taking more and more extreme positions and speaking out strongly against Israeli policy. The peak came when the Mavi Marmara flotilla attempted to enter Israeli waters and the IDF used force to stop it. Turkey recalled its ambassador, diplomatic ties were cut off and joint military training was canceled. There was a total disconnect between the countries.

    Erdogan needed to cut ties with Israel, and to weaken Turkey’s secular military, so that he could strengthen his position in the eyes of his Muslim constituents. He was also interested in positioning Turkey as a regional leader. To do so, Turkey had to constantly become more radical to keep up with Iran and Syria. Turkey’s demand that Israel apologize for the Marmara incident, and Israel’s refusal to do so, was the excuse Erdogan used to become even more extreme.

    There are a number of ramifications to the cutting off of security cooperation between Turkey and Israel.

    The defense industry took the hardest hit. Israeli exports to Turkey, including potential orders which were canceled as a result of the crisis, reached hundreds of millions of dollars. And the commercial relationship Israel had with Turkey was not limited to defense. Commercial, nonmilitary cooperation was also seriously hit. Numerous projects, including upgrading Turkish tanks in Israel, were canceled. Sensitive technological systems that had previously been sold to Turkey were exported in much smaller quantities. Large Israeli companies such as Elbit Systems, ELTA Systems, Elbit Systems Electro-optics – Elop and Israel Aerospace Industries were hit the hardest.

    The IDF’s operational readiness was also affected.

    Throughout the years, the IDF had benefitted from joint sea, land and air exercises with the Turkish military. In addition, they jointly planned operations that were carried out in distant locations, strengthened cooperation with NATO countries and practiced scenarios that could only be carried out with Turkish assistance.

    The rupture led to an end to joint maneuvers for which the IDF had no suitable alternative.

    The third area that was affected was intelligence.

    Valuable security information regarding technology and intelligence had been transferred between the two countries over the years. This trade of information was the basis for the trust that had been forged. To a large extent, this was a prerequisite for Israel to achieve its goals. As relations with Turkey deteriorated, however, the fear that sensitive security information might find its way to hostile or even enemy countries grew. Security agreements were canceled and the alienation intensified.

    Non-military commercial and legal interests were also hit. Following the cut in relations, there was a steep fall in the number of Israeli tourists who visited Turkey. Numerous lawsuits were submitted in Turkey against Israeli individuals and senior officers, which limited their movement outside Israel.

    In recent months, there has been a change in the Turkish leadership. Erdogan realized that if Turkey wishes to be considered a regional power bridging East and West, and to remain on good terms with the US, then it would need to be more moderate.

    At the same time, Syria, Turkey’s neighbor to the south, is falling into chaos, which could put Turkey in danger. Therefore, Erdogan has softened his tone and the atmosphere has become more relaxed. Turkey’s goals have not changed, and it is still maneuvering in an effort to gain status and power in the regional Arab leadership.

    However, its need to remain close to the US and Europe requires that it watch its step.

    The Turks received the apology they asked for, and the ambassadors will probably be reinstated. Smiles may replace the angry faces, and defense cooperation might even return to some extent. But the trend has not really changed. Turkey must continue to walk on the thin line between its desire to lead the predominately Muslim Middle East, and its need to please the West and retain its image as a moderate country.

    We in Israel are sitting right on that thin line. Apologies like the one Netanyahu gave Erdogan are apparently necessary to keep the thin line from breaking. But the future holds many more difficulties in the relationship between the two countries. Turkey will not alter its hawkish stance, yet Israel needs Turkey as a strategic partner. But not at any price.

    The writer is a former brigadier-general who served as a division head in the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency). The original article appeared in Hebrew in Sof Hashavua.

    Translated by Hannah Hochner.

    via Are Israel and Turkey friends again? | JPost | Israel News.

  • Turkey building refugee camps for Syrian Christians, Kurds

    Turkey building refugee camps for Syrian Christians, Kurds

    By Jonathon Burch

    ANKARA | Wed Apr 10, 2013 10:21am EDT

    (Reuters) – Turkey is building two camps along its far southeastern border with Syria to house a growing number of refugees from Syrian minority groups, mainly Assyrian Christians as well as ethnic Kurds, a government official said on Wednesday.

    More 250,000 Syrians fleeing civil war in their homeland have registered in Turkey, most of whom stay in 17 camps along the 900-km (560-mile) border, although Turkish leaders say the total number of refugees is closer to 400,000.

    Those who have fled are predominantly ethnic Arabs from Syria’s Sunni Muslim majority, most of whom largely support the rebels fighting to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad, who himself belongs to the Alawite minority of Shi’ite Islam.

    Apart from housing refugees, Turkey, which also has a Sunni majority, has thrown its weight behind the rebels, giving them sanctuary, although it denies arming them. This has drawn accusations of sectarianism leveled at the government from Assad as well as Turkish minority groups and opposition parties.

    Ankara strongly denies a sectarian or ethnic agenda.

    The two tented camps, to be completed in less than a month, are being built in Midyat, a town in southeastern Mardin province some 50 km from the Syrian border, the official from Turkey’s foreign ministry said.

    One camp with a capacity of 2,500 people will house mainly Assyrian Christians as well as refugees from other Christian denominations. It will be constructed on empty land next to an Assyrian church, which has been donated by its Assyrian owner.

    Turkey has its own small Assyrian minority, most of whom live in Mardin and in Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city. It was on their request that the camp is being built, the official said.

    Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan recently met Assyrian leaders in Turkey.

    The other camp will have a capacity of 3,000 and would house any Syrian Kurds fleeing violence though Arabs could also stay, the official said. Mardin, home to many Turkish Kurds, borders an area of Syria with a large concentration of Syrian Kurds.

    Syria’s 22 million population is roughly three-quarters Sunni Muslim, which includes Arabs and Kurds, and around 15 percent other Muslim groups, including mostly Alawites but also some Shi’ites and Druze. Some 10 percent are Christian, while Syria is also home to a tiny Jewish community.

    Ethnic Kurds make up around 10 percent of the population.

    (Editing by Nick Tattersall/Mark Heinrich)

    via Turkey building refugee camps for Syrian Christians, Kurds | Reuters.

  • Kerry’s quest: Who really wants peace?

    Kerry’s quest: Who really wants peace?

    What was John Kerry thinking when he asked Turkey’s anti-Jewish prime minister to be “a partner”?

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    US Secretary of State John Kerry shakes hands with Netanyahu, March 20, 2013. Photo: REUTERS/Larry Downing
    What was John Kerry thinking when he asked Turkey’s viscerally anti-Israel and anti-Jewish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to be “a partner” in brokering peace between Israel and the Palestinians? Does he honestly think Hamas’ loyal and enthusiastic supporter, a man who has called Zionism a crime against humanity, could be an honest broker? The State Department spokeswoman confirmed a Turkish newspaper report that Kerry wants Erdogan to play an active role in the peace process, and said Kerry asked Turkey to use its “significant influence with the Palestinians” to encourage Hamas to accept the demands of the International Quartet.

    That means persuading his friend Khaled Mashaal, Hamas’ leader, to do everything he and his organization have sworn they never would do: recognize Israel’s right to exist, renounce armed struggle and abide by all Israeli- Palestinian agreements.

    Most NATO and European countries – except Turkey – consider Hamas, which seized control of the Gaza strip in a bloody 2007 coup, a terrorist organization.

    Erdogan’s inclusion is bad news for Egypt, Fatah and Israel. Egypt resents Turkey moving on to its turf. Former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak felt he had a monopoly as the regional intermediary and told Erdogan to keep his hands off; his successor, Mohamed Morsi, apparently feels that way as well, plus now it’s an Islamist as well as national rivalry.

    Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas knows Erdogan is a close ally of arch-rival Hamas and hostile to the secular nationalist Fatah. If anything, Erdogan is more radical than Abbas, and that’s the last thing the PA leader needs. Relations between the two men are said to be cool at best. Abbas also knows Hamas wants to overthrow him and take over not only the PA but control of the PLO as well.

    There are few people who Israelis distrust more than Erdogan. Bringing him in is no way to win their confidence.

    Two senior cabinet ministers have already rejected any suggestion of a Turkish role, recalling Israel’s unhappy experience with Erdogan in 2008 when he tried to mediate with Syria, then his close ally, and acted more like Bashar Assad’s advocate.

    It has been suggested that a more appropriate mediator would be King Abdullah II of Jordan, who is on good terms with both the Israelis and Palestinians. He is scheduled to visit President Barack Obama later this month and is said to be eager to play a role in any peace process.

    One reason for Kerry’s unexpected stop in Ankara on his second trip to the region in two weeks was concern that Turkey was backtracking on its promise to normalize relations with Israel following Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s apology to Erdogan in connection with the Mavi Marmara flotilla incident that led to a rupture in relations between the two former allies.

    Kerry told Turkish leaders he’d like Ankara to make good on its promise to quickly reach agreement on compensation and return its ambassador to Israel, but new Turkish demands and Erdogan’s triumphalist boasting have raised doubts in Jerusalem and Washington about Turkish intentions.

    The latest setback is Turkish insistence that “all of the embargoes should be eliminated once and for all,” meaning Israel’s blockade of Gaza, before diplomats can be exchanged, although that was not part of the reconciliation brokered by President Obama. In his press conference with Kerry Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu repeatedly called for Israel “going back to 1967 borders.”

    Speaking of borders, Abbas has a new precondition for resuming negotiations with Israel. He is demanding Netanyahu announce acceptance of the 1967 lines as the basis for negotiations and present a map detailing Israel’s position on borders. Israel objects, saying that would give away its bargaining position and provide the Palestinian with a starting point for negotiations. Besides, Israel’s positions would depend on what kind of state is agreed to, the extent of demilitarization, security arrangements, the Arab uprisings in the region and other factors.

    The demand for the map came with a threat. “If Kerry fails” to get Israel to hand it over in approximately two months, “we will start moving toward the international organizations” and file complaints against Israel in the International Criminal Court, said Palestinian Foreign Affairs Minister Riad al-Maliki.

    And if Israel does all Abbas demands, would he resume negotiations? Maybe, said his chief negotiator, Saeb Erekat. Meeting those terms “could lead to an immediate resumption of talks.”

    Abbas told the Globe and Mail this week, “I think there was some opportunities [for peace] in the past, but unfortunately we missed these opportunities.”

    He complained that time is running out for a two-state solution yet he continues to refuse to resume negotiations.

    Instead he keeps upping the ante by adding new preconditions for talks. Now it is the map, before that it was the release of prisoners and before that a total construction freeze beyond the 1967 lines, including in east Jerusalem.

    The logical conclusion is that he simply isn’t interested.

    He may talk about peace but he keeps finding excuses not to talk.

    President Obama has told Abbas, and Kerry repeated the message this week, that Washington backs Netanyahu’s call for resuming talks without any preconditions.

    Critics say Netanyahu, who has failed to contradict key ministers who openly oppose the two-state solution and keeps expanding settlements, isn’t any more interested in returning to the peace table than Abbas, but Palestinians are clearly afraid to call his bluff.

    Kerry would reportedly like to revive and revise the 2002 Arab peace initiative, which Israel rejected at the time and the Arabs did nothing serious to convince them otherwise. Much has changed in the region over the past decade, and Kerry’s challenge will be to convince all sides they will need to show much greater flexibility if they are serious about doing more than missing opportunities.

    The big question is whether the United States is the only one that wants peace badly enough to devote more than empty rhetoric to the cause. Despite the flurry of diplomacy at Foggy Bottom, it’s far from clear whether the Israelis and Palestinians themselves are ready to work with the new secretary of state.

  • Amos Gilad: Turkey against a nuclear Iran

    Amos Gilad: Turkey against a nuclear Iran

    Amos Gilad: Turkey against a nuclear Iran

    Head of Defense Ministry’s diplomatic security bureau says reconciliation with Erodogan important; reveals that ‘additional crises’ were avoided

    Atilla Somfalvi

    Published:  04.09.13, 15:09 / Israel News

    The head of the diplomatic-security bureau at the Defense Ministry, Amos Gilad said Tuesday that the reconciliation agreement with Turkey was important for Israel due to the Iran nuclear situation. “Turkey has been enemies with Iran or Persia for 1,000 years; it (Turkey) cannot allow them to arm themselves with nuclear weapons. Turkey is not ready for Iran to go nuclear,” he said in an interview with Ynet.

     

    Gilad also emphasized that even if Israel’s relations with Turkey did not return to their previous level, the importance of the reconciliation agreement was in that it stopped the deterioration of relations between the two countries.

     

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    Iran launches new uranium production facility

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    No deal in sight on final day of Iran nuclear talks

     

    He added that in addition to published reports, further crises unknown to the public, had been averted, “on the level of the air force and navy.” Regarding the decision to postpone the meeting between Turkish and Israeli representatives he called it a “technical issue,” devoid of strategic meaning.

     

    During the interview, Gilad talked about the visit of US Secretary of State John Kerry to the region in an attempt to lay the groundwork for a return to negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. He emphasized that the difficulty in reaching an agreement with the Palestinians lay in the gap between the two sides view of the West Bank, and in whether Abbas would be in control of Gaza.

     

    Regarding Syria, Gilad said the regime’s chemical weapons were still under Assad’s control and that “accurate intelligence tracking” needed to be done following their situation. He added that the deterioration of Syria has allowed groups such as Al-Qaeda to establish itself in the country.

     

    Finally, Gilad said, Israel should not favor Assad, remembering that he is an “axis of extreme evil.”

     

    When asked about Assad’s eventual fall, Gilad replied, “We must not say that it will happen in the next week or next two weeks. There is no reason to make such estimations.”

    via Amos Gilad: Turkey against a nuclear Iran – Israel News, Ynetnews.