Turkish Forum

Category: Israel

  • Emergence of a New Middle East Alliance

    Emergence of a New Middle East Alliance

    Patrick Seale

    usWhile U.S. President Barack Obama makes history in Cairo this week, a new regional grouping is taking shape in the northern part of the Middle East which could turn out to be equally significant.

    Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria are developing trade, energy and security ties which signal a common will to shape their national destinies free from external – and especially Western — dictation. What are the factors driving this new grouping? They are numerous, and mostly specific to each country.

    Turkey – having faced disagreements and disappointments with the U.S. (over the Iraq war), with the European Union (over the slow pace of accession negotiations) and with Israel (over the Palestine question) — has developed an ambitious regional policy towards its Arab and Islamic neighbours.

    Turkey’s trade with Iran, which was a mere $1bn in 2000 rose to $10bn in 2008, and is projected to double to $20bn in the not too distant future. Turkey is planning to invest $12bn in Iran’s South Pars gas field – a policy strikingly at variance with the call by Israel and its American friends for additional sanctions against Iran. Some one million Iranian tourists visit Turkey each year, and millions more visit Iraq, especially Kerbala, the place where Hussein, grandson of the Prophet Muhammad was martyred in 680. His tomb is the Shi‘is holiest shrine.

    Syria’s strategic partnership with Iran is now 30 years old, and shows no sign of waning. The Tehran-Damascus-Hizballah axis is a geopolitical fact of life in the region and was widely seen, during in the Bush years, as the main obstacle to U.S.-Israeli hegemony. In contrast to his predecessor, Obama is now seeking to reach out to both Iran and Syria, but he is apparently not yet ready to recognise that Hizballah is an unavoidable actor on the Lebanese scene. If Obama’s ambitious Middle East peace plans are to be realised, a U.S. dialogue with both Hizballah and Hamas cannot be long delayed.

    Syria’s relations with Turkey – strained almost to the point of war in 1998 over Syria’s backing of the Kurdish PKK leader, Abdallah Ocalan — have improved dramatically. Two-way trade is flourishing. A straw in the wind was the recent Turkish decision to increase the flow of Euphrates water to Syria’s north-east, which has been badly hit by drought.

    Syrian-Iraqi relations, marked by extreme hostility during Saddam Hussein’s rule, have also greatly improved. Last April, Syria’s Prime Minister Muhammad Naji Otri signed a wide-ranging agreement in Baghdad establishing a free trade zone and providing for cooperation in energy and education. Syria is to participate in the rehabilitation of the Kirkuk to Banias oil pipeline which passes through Syrian territory. Syria’s port at Latakia is to be expanded and road links to Iraq improved, to provide transit facilities for Iraq’s import- export trade. A train carrying 800 tons of steel left the Syrian port of Tartous on 30 May for Baghdad, the first rail freight trip between the two countries in decades.

    Iran, Turkey, and Syria all have a stake in Iraq’s future. Iran would clearly like Iraq to be a friendly neighbour under continued Shi‘i leadership. It wants Iraq to revive, but never again to be so powerful as to pose a threat as deadly as Saddam Hussein’s. Memories of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war are still too recent. Iran would probably prefer Iraq to develop into a federal state, and therefore relatively weak, rather than a strong unitary state. There are, however, no illusions in Tehran that Iraq, a major Arab country with a strong nationalist tradition, will ever consent to be an Iranian puppet.

    Whoever wins the Iranian presidential elections on 12 June – whether it is the conservative incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, or his principal challenger, former premier Mir-Hussein Mousavi, a ‘moderate’ conservative backed by the main reformist parties – the main lines of Iran’s external policy are unlikely to change: close ties with Syria, Iraq and Turkey; opposition to Sunni extremism in Afghanistan and Pakistan; support for Hizballah and the Palestinians; and continued uranium enrichment.

    What sort of Iraq, its neighbours wonder, will emerge from the slaughter, destruction and chaos of the past six years? Can a new regional balance be reached now that Iraq is again able to assert its national interests?

    It seems clear that Iraq has turned a corner. Violent deaths in May, at about 165, were among the lowest for any month since the U.S.-led invasion of 2003. Security is gradually returning, although still marred by horrendous suicide bombings. The Iraqi security forces – army, police, and intelligence — are steadily improving in size and efficiency. The recent conclusion of a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the United States — with firm deadlines for the withdrawal of American armed forces — was an important expression of Iraqi sovereignty regained.

    But much remains to be done. Sunni-Shi‘i relations in Iraq remain tense, while Arab-Kurdish relations remain problematic; a hydrocarbons law has not yet been passed by parliament (although the central government has thought it best to turn a blind eye to the start of oil exports from the Kurdish region to Turkey.)

    War of Necessity, War of Choice, a recent book by Richard Haas contrasts the 1990 war to free Kuwait with the 2003 war to overthrow Saddam Hussein. The first, he argues was a war of necessity, the second a war of choice — and a very bad choice at that. It had a catastrophic impact on America’s armed forces, on its finances and its reputation. The Iraq war killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, displaced millions, shattered the country’s infrastructure, released sectarian demons, and upset the regional balance to Iran’s great benefit.

    Haas, a former senior American official, is now head of the prestigious New York–based Council on Foreign Relations. His book makes clear that Saddam’s alleged possession of Weapons of Mass Destruction was not the real motive for war. Pressure to attack Iraq came essentially from the civilian leadership at the Pentagon – especially from the then deputy defence secretary Paul Wolfowitz – and from other neo-cons in Vice-President Dick Cheney’s office, whose geopolitical fantasy was to overthrow the main Arab regimes, as well as the mullahs in Iran, and restructure the entire area, so as to make it safe for Israel.

    The neo-cons’ opportunity came because of America’s perceived need, after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, to send a big message to the Arab world about U.S. military power. Haas’ book is likely to revive the debate about the role of Israel’s friends in Washington in pushing the U.S. into war in Iraq. It will provide Barack Obama with ammunition to resist Israeli pressure to attack Iran.

    The grouping of Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria may not yet be a full-fledged alliance, but numerous common interests are pulling the four states in that direction. Not least is a concern about possible Israeli aggression – directed against Iran and Syria – and of continued uncertainty about the future course of American policy.

    Source:  www.daralhayat.com, 06 June 2009

  • The Turkish Parliament Blocks Controversial Investment Plan

    The Turkish Parliament Blocks Controversial Investment Plan

    Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 6 Issue: 103

    By: Emrullah Uslu
    Border between Turkey and Syria
    Border between Turkey and Syria
    The Turkish government drafted a bill on a proposed de-mining project on the Syrian border, which sparked controversy among neo-nationalists and Islamists (EDM, May 21). The Justice and Development Party (AKP) government proposed to lease the de-mined area for 44 years to a foreign company. The area was first mined when the Turkish-Syrian border was determined in 1956. The mined area consists of 216,000 decares of land along a 510 kilometer long and 350 meter wide area of the border. It has an estimated value of around $500 million. Around 80 percent of the area is available for agricultural use, while 70 percent is suitable for irrigation. “It is believed that there are 650,000 landmines in the territory: approximately one landmine every 500 meters. The mines have claimed 3,000 lives in the past 50 years while crippling 7,000. The mines were marked on a map while they were being laid” (Hurriyet Daily News, May 29).

    The opposition parties argued that the AKP government wanted to lease the area to an Israeli company. Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan replied to the opposition concerns saying: “Money has no religion, nationality, ethnicity or color. No matter who invests, it is not Israeli’s who will work in this area, only Turkish citizens will be working there and it will help reduce unemployment within our country” (Hurriyet, May 23).

    The Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Deniz Baykal stated that “we cannot give a 510-kilometer long border area to a foreign country. The Arabs are on one side and the Turks are on the other, while Israelis will be in the middle framing the area. Is there any meaning to this? We will not allow this to happen” (Hurriyet, May 27). Moreover, the CHP parliamentarian, Gurol Ergin, previously criticized the AKP government’s attempt to lease this land, alleging that it might create a “second Gaza” in the region (Anadolu Ajansi, May 15).

    Baykal draw a parallel between the AKP’s attempt to lease the land to a foreign company and the U.S. military requesting transit rights through Turkish territory prior to the Iraq war in 2003. Baykal said that the opposition did not permit this to happen, and now the government had to be stopped in its efforts to “lease this land to a foreigner” (Hurriyet, May 27).

    The opposition parties demanded that the Turkish armed forces (TSK) should be given the sole responsibility for the mine-clearing. Moreover, they alleged that the TSK also harbored reservations over the bill (EDM, May 21). Yet, the Turkish Chief of the General Staff Army-General Ilker Basbug, stated that NATO’s Maintenance and Supply Agency (NAMSA) must clear the mines (Vatan, May 22).

    The opposition is not alone in criticizing the AKP government: Islamist intellectuals have also voiced concern. One well respected Islamist intellectual Ahmet Tasgetiren criticized the government in the Bugun daily, asking whether it was paying tribute to Israel because Prime Minister Erdogan had harshly criticized Israel in Davos in January (Bugun, May 28). Fehmi Koru, a childhood friend of President Abdullah Gul and Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, and another influential intellectual, also opposed the idea of leasing the land to an Israeli firm (Yeni Safak, May 28).

    It appears that some APK parliamentarians shared these concerns. For instance, Sadik Yakut said “I am against leasing this land to an Israeli company. AKP parliamentarians are very sensitive about this issue” (Milliyet, May 29). Due to the passive resistance by AKP parliamentarians opposed to the government proposal, it was subsequently withdrawn.

    The opposition and the AKP government agreed to work together to find a compromise on how to proceed to clear the mines. It was also reported that NAMSA might be permitted to visit the region to conduct de-mining operations. However, the Minister of Defense Vecdi Gonul, alleged that “the cost of clearing the mines varies at between $700 million to $3.5 billion. The government simply cannot invest that amount of money into this land. In 1992 such proposals emerged, but were abandoned due to insufficient funds” (Zaman, May 29).

    Despite attracting a significant level of foreign investment to the Kurdish region, which would reduce local unemployment, suspicions toward Israel on the part of the Islamists and neo-nationalists forced the government to withdraw the proposal. Such a coalition of Islamist and nationalists also emerged during the March 1, 2003 vote to resist the AKP government over allowing U.S. troops to conduct operations in Iraq from Turkish territory.

    The latest controversy between the opposition and AKP government once again exposed the depth of anti-Israeli sentiment among many segments of the Turkish population. Even AKP parliamentarians, who have had a tendency to vote in sympathy with Erdogan’s initiatives, refused to support the government over this sensitive issue.

    Source:  www.jamestown.org, May 29, 2009
  • Anti-immigrant and Europhobic – far right parties ride populist wave

    Anti-immigrant and Europhobic – far right parties ride populist wave

    • Ian Traynor
    • Wednesday 27 May 2009
    Members of Jobbik, a Hungarian far-right party

    Members of Jobbik, a far-right Hungarian party which has been using Auschwitz slogans in its attempt to pick up votes. Photograph: Karoly Arvai/Reuters

    In Europe’s biggest port, where nearly half the population of 600,000 is of immigrant origin, Geert Wilders appears to be knocking on an open door.

    The platinum-blond, Islam-baiting populist is soaring in opinion surveys in the Netherlands, hammering the anti-immigration message to double his ratings this year to the point where his Freedom party is challenging to be the strongest in the country, according to a leading weekly tracking poll.

    Wilders’ acolytes are also poised to enter the European parliament for the first time after elections for the EU’s sole democratically elected institution, covering 375 million people across 27 countries, take place next week.

    “He’s a clown, crazy,” said Aarjen Heida, a Rotterdam banker, of the ­iconoclast banned from Britain for “hate speech” and facing trial in the Netherlands. “But he’s dangerous. A lot of people will vote for him. People are unhappy with the way things are going here and often that has to do with foreigners.”

    Hans Oole, a retired Rotterdam food engineer, insisted he would not vote for Wilders next week. “I don’t like the way he says things. But sometimes he’s right. Most Dutch people are really afraid of Islam and it is coming all over.”

    According to city statistics, ethnic Dutch residents will be a minority in Rotterdam within a few years. At present just over one third of children under 14 are ethnically Dutch. Wilders, who likens Islam to fascism and the Qur’an to Mein Kampf, exploits such figures to argue that the Netherlands is being swamped by immigration. He also hates the EU, pledging to try to abolish the European parliament when his party ­colleagues take their seats in July. He hopes to win five of the 25 Dutch seats.

    Wilders’ success represents, in part, a souring of traditional Dutch enthusiasm for the EU. It also appears symptomatic of a broader insurrectionary mood across Europe that is expected to favour extremists, mavericks and populists in the voting taking place over four days from next Thursday. Overt racism and the calculated use of Nazi language are featuring in what is otherwise a lacklustre campaign.

    In Austria, the hard-right Freedom party of Heinz-Christian Strache, tipped to take up to 20% of the vote, is pandering openly to antisemitism. “A veto of Turkey and Israel joining the EU,” declare the party posters despite the fact that Israel, unlike Turkey, is not negotiating to join.

    Last week in the Czech Republic, state television broadcast a campaign slot from the small, fascist National party calling the large Roma community “parasites” and echoing Nazi formulation of the Holocaust policy from 1942 by demanding “a final solution of the Gypsy question”.

    The party is not expected to get into the European parliament, but in ­Hungary the far-right Jobbik, which boasts black-shirted paramilitaries and maintains relations with the British National party, has been using Auschwitz slogans and running a lurid anti-Gypsy campaign.

    It, like the BNP, could make an electoral breakthrough and win a seat in the parliament which is sited alternately and at great cost in Strasbourg and Brussels.

    If the far right is making inroads, the hard left, too, may benefit from the disenchantment with mainstream parties, notably in two of the core EU countries, Germany and France.

    The new anti-capitalist party of a postman Trotskyist, Olivier Besancenot, is predicted to win around 10% of the vote in France, while the New Left in Germany – former East German communists allied with West German social democratic defectors – could do likewise. Both parties’ gains will hurt the mainstream social democrats.

    The chances of the Europhobic extremists entering the parliament are strengthened by the wretched turnout expected next week.

    “The low turnout means that those who do vote have very strong opinions. That will bring in more extremist politicians,” said Sara Hagemann, a Danish analyst at the European Policy Centre in Brussels. “You’ll see a lot of protest voters in Europe and a lot of apathy towards political elites.”

    The lack of interest in the election, or protesting by abstaining, could spell a crisis of legitimacy for the parliament and of credibility for the EU more broadly.

    It is virtually certain that voters will stay away in record numbers, making participation the lowest since voting for the parliament started 30 years ago.

    A Eurobarometer poll predicts a turnout of 34%, more than 10 points down on 2004, but that may prove to be optimistic since the pollsters have consistently overestimated participation rates.

    A poll-tracking study being run by the London School of Economics and ­Trinity College Dublin predicts a turnout of around 30%, meaning that more than two out of three voters across the EU will boycott the ballot.

    “The risk of abstention is that it allows Eurosceptics and extremists to take over our debate and our future,” José Manuel Barroso, the European commission president, warned recently.

    Mobilising voters is made more difficult by the fact that the election does not decide a government, nor are the 736 MEPs elected able to initiate European laws, reinforcing the popular notion that the parliament is a remote, irrelevant talking shop.

    In fact, voter turnout is in inverse proportion to the parliament’s growing powers. Turnout has fallen in each of the seven elections since 1979, while every treaty reshaping the way the EU is run has increased the parliament’s clout. It now has a say in shaping around 75% of European law.

    From next year, if the Lisbon treaty is implemented following a second referendum in Ireland in October, it will be empowered to “co-decide” almost all European laws, making the parliament one of the big winners of the Lisbon streamlining reforms.

    In what already looks like a doomed attempt to combat indifference and drum up interest in the ballot, the parliament itself – as opposed to the competing parties – has hired a German PR firm and spent some €18m (£15.6m) of European taxpayers’ money trying to sell the election.

    “Come on! It’s just a few minutes, maybe you can combine [voting] with a walk in the park or a drink in a cafe. Not much effort to tell Europe what you want,” pleads the parliament propaganda.

    It is falling on closed ears. The lavish spending only compounds the ­parliament’s problems, reinforcing the conviction that MEPs are either wasting taxpayers’ money or pocketing it.

    With around 9,000 candidates running for the 736 seats and with each national ballot turning on the idiosyncrasies of 27 vastly different countries, variations in voting behaviour will be marked.

    In Germany, for example, the poll will be analysed closely for what it portends for the general election in September, Europe’s most important political contest this year.

    In France, it is likely to be seen as a referendum on two years of President Nicolas Sarkozy, while in Italy, the election will be scrutinised to see if Silvio Berlusconi’s marital breakdown is damaging his popularity.

    Despite the national variations, trans-national trends are discernible as voters look like venting their anger on incumbents because of the economic crisis, and growing unemployment.

    The French, Italian, and Polish governments may be the big exceptions to this trend. But Euroscepticism, previously a British and, to a lesser extent, a Scandinavian characteristic, is spreading even into the historical heartland of the EU, such as the Netherlands.

    “The Dutch have become very cantankerous. It’s very sad,” said a senior EU official. “They’ve gone from being the most pro-European country to one of the most anti-European.”

    While Wilders pledges to destroy the EU “from within”, the hard-left Socialist party’s pitch is for “more Netherlands, less Brussels”. And among the centrist parties in government in the Netherlands, there is little positive being said about Brussels or the EU. “Even among the non-extreme parties, scepticism has crept in,” said Hagemann.

    Leading this new movement of Eurosceptics and seeking to establish it as a more powerful transnational political force in Europe are David Cameron’s Conservatives, who are pledged to end two decades of alliance with the mainstream European centre-right (the European People’s party) and form a new caucus of European Conservatives.

    The entry of several dozen extremists and populists will make the parliament a more raucous, bad-tempered place, but will not substantively affect the balance of power between Christian Democrats, social democrats and liberals.

    But Cameron’s move should have more impact. He has been helped by the entry of central European countries in 2004. He will depend on rightwingers from Poland and the Czech Republic and a few other countries to set up the new grouping, which will signify the biggest change in the new five-year parliament.

    The LSE-Trinity College study predicts more than 60 seats from up to nine countries for the new Conservative caucus, making it the fourth biggest in the parliament. It will be loud in its condemnation of the Lisbon treaty and will campaign for the “repatriation” of powers from Brussels to national capitals.

    “We will be very united in limiting European power,” said Konrad Szymanski, a Polish MEP from the rightwing Law and Justice party which will supply the second biggest bloc of MEPs after the British.

    The election will usher in a busy few months at the top of European politics – Barroso’s expected renomination as head of a new commission a fortnight later at a European summit; a German election; an Irish referendum; and probably a contest for the two plum posts of first European president and foreign minister.

    But the low turnout and predicted gains for anti-Europeans will get this burst of high-powered politicking off to a bad start.

    Source: www.guardian.co.uk, 27 May 2009

  • Israel to open embassy in Turkmenistan

    Israel to open embassy in Turkmenistan

    JERUSALEM, May 20 (Xinhua) — Israel will open an embassy in Turkmenistan’s capital Ashgabat for the first time, Israeli Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday in a statement sent to Xinhua.

    The decision to open the embassy was reached in view of the development of good bilateral relationship with Turkmenistan and the new momentum in relations with Central Asian countries, said the statement.

    Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has discussed the issue with his Turkmen counterpart Rashid Meredov and informed him of Israel’s decision, said the statement, adding that the Turkmen foreign minister welcomed the announcement.

    Ever since the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Turkmenistan at the beginning of the 1990s, both countries have contributed to the expansion and deepening of the bilateral relationship.

    Turkmenistan is one of the leading countries in Central Asia, and Israel’s relations with it are of political, economic and strategic importance, according to the statement.

    “We are certain that the permanent presence of an Israeli diplomat at the ambassadorial level in Ashgabat will ensure an additional quantum leap in the development of relations with a pivotal and friendly country such as Turkmenistan,” the statement said.

    Source: news.xinhuanet.com, 21.05.2209

  • White House asserts control over foreign policy

    White House asserts control over foreign policy

    Ed Lasky

    atThe focus of power involving foreign policy is in the National Security Council, not the State Department. The model Obama is following is that of Nixon White house where the hapless Secretary of State William Rogers twisted in the wind for years as Nixon-Kissinger ran foreign policy from the White House.

    Brent Scowcroft and Zbigniew Brzezinski were advisers to Barack Obama and both are proponents of this model.

    I wrote about this months ago here.

    Now we are seeing signs of this dynamic at work. This Haaretz article by Barak Ravid and Natasha Mozgovaya shows that NSC advisor James Jones is spreading the word about Obama’s “get tough” policy with Israel:

    Gen. James Jones, national security adviser to President Barack Obama, told a European foreign minister a week ago that unlike the Bush administration, Obama will be “forceful” with Israel.

    Meanwhile, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel told an AIPAC conference last night that two states for two peoples is the only solution the United States is committed to.

    [snip]

    Emanuel called for Israeli-Palestinian cooperation if Iran is to be countered effectively.

    He said the United States was trying to enter a dialogue with countries such as Syria and Iran, even though it was still unclear whether these countries would alter their behavior. He reiterated that the United States wants to talk with Iran in the hope that Tehran will relinquish its efforts to gain nuclear weapons.

    Jones is the main force in the Obama administration stressing the Palestinian question and believes that the United States must become more intensively involved in the matter vis-a-vis both Israel and the Palestinian Authority.


    Looks like Bibi is in for some tough talk from Jones and the president.

    Source: www.americanthinker.com, 5 May 2009

  • DEBKAfile Exclusives in Week Ending May 20, 2009

    DEBKAfile Exclusives in Week Ending May 20, 2009

    Summary of
    Washington threatens to evacuate three US bases over Qatar’s pro-Iran policy May 15: The Obama administration has secretly warned Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani that he risks losing the three big American bases located in the emirate if he persists in promoting Iran’s radicalizing influence over Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinians.

    An American military withdrawal from the emirate, especially the big Al Odeid air base and Central Command headquarters, would be a crushing blow to Al Thani. It would leave Qatar and the rest of the Gulf unprotected in any military conflagration in the region over Iran’s nuclear program.

    It alarmed Emir al Thani enough for him to takes steps, one of which was to direct the news editors of al Jazeera TV station, which he owns, to moderate the anti-American line of its English and Arabic language broadcasts.

    May 15 briefs: – Egyptian security officers uncover big arms cache near Israeli border in Sinai.
    It contained 260 rockets, 40 mines, 50 mortar shells, anti-air missiles.
    They were bound for Hamas in Gaza Strip.
    – Pope winds up five-day visit to Israel, Palestinian territories Friday noon.
    – Tony Blair to US Congress: Neither Israelis nor Palestinians want to resume peace talks.
    They must be pushed.
    Israel will never accept a Palestinian state without a stability guarantee.
    – US Federal court refuses Palestinian Authority appeal against $116 m compensation for couple stabbed to death in 1996 terror attack.

    US upholds Israel’s nuclear position as long as Iran enriches uranium 16 May: This statement by a senior American official in Vienna paves the way for an Israeli request to extend the 40-year old “ambiguity” arrangement approved by Obama’s predecessors for its nuclear program.

    The senior US official, addressing preparatory talks for a nuclear non-proliferation treaty review conference in 2010, made it clear that US arms control negotiator Rose Gottermoelle did not break new ground last week when she urged presumed atomic powers India, Israel, Pakistan and North Korea to join the nuclear non-proliferation pact. He said: The four presumed nuclear nations were unlikely to join the NPT “until there is a change in the overall political and security context.” He added: “In the particular case of the Middle East, Israeli adherence to the NPT is only going to be possible in the context of… full compliance with [the treaty in the region].”

    Establishing a Middle East nuclear weapons-free zone “depends on Iran fully complying with its NPT obligations and suspending uranium enrichment.”

    Jordan’s Abdullah appoints his 9-year son crown prince, sacks Hazme
    DEBKAfile Exclusive Report     17 May: Jordan’s King Abdullah II has been hyperactive on the Palestinian issue in the last few days to draw attention from a highly controversial decree which has taken Amman by storm: the appointment of his 9-year old son, Hussein, as crown prince, after summarily sacking from the post his 27-year old half-brother Prince Hazme, son of King Hussein and US-born Queen Noor, who lives in America.

    This decision has aroused a major to-do in the royal court as well as opposition in Jordan’s government and military elite. They fear Abdullah’s his appointment of a young child as first in line to the throne will plunge the kingdom into a period of instability. They also accuse him of breaking a deathbed promise to his father.

    When King Hussein knew he was dying of cancer in 1999, he pulled the post of crown prince from his brother, Prince Hassan, and passed it to his own son, Abdullah, against a pledge to appoint Prince Hamze next in line to the throne.

    May 17 briefs: – Hatred of Jews intensifies among Israeli Arab community, according to a new poll.
    Increased numbers – 40% – deny Holocaust and the Jews’ right to a state.
    – Israel registers 3.4 percent negative growth in first quarter.
    Exports drop 48 percent as recession begins to bite.
    – Netanyahu to visit Sarkozy in Paris in two weeks.
    – Al-Shabab militia captures key Jowhar town north of Mogadishu from Somali government troops. – Netanyahu arrives in Washington for talks with Obama Monday.
    He will also meet Gates, Clinton, Jones and national American-Jewish leaders.
    – First women elected to Kuwait parliament.
    Sunni parties lose 10 of 21 seats, Shiite minority doubles representation to nine.
    – Egypt finds half-ton Hamas weapons cache near Gaza border – second Egyptian haul in a week.
    – Peres meets Jordan’s Abdullah in Amman.
    – Arab League Secy Amr Musa: Main ME concern is nuclear Israel not Iran.

    US-Israel summit shadowed by Obama’s soft stand on Iranian enrichment
    DEBKAfile Exclusive Report     18 May: DEBKAfile’s Washington sources report that the gap between US president Barack Obama and Israel prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu on Iran was wider even than on the Palestinian issue.

    Overshadowing their outwardly easy conversation was the US president’s growing inclination to meet Iran halfway on uranium enrichment. He is seriously considering taking up the Anglo-German proposal for an international monitoring mechanism strict enough to preclude Iran’s attainment of weapons-grade enriched uranium after being advised by US intelligence and nuclear experts that this is feasible.

    Israeli intelligence and military experts take the opposite view. They believe the Anglo-German plan gives Iran the perfect cover for concealing its race for a nuclear bomb, a misgiving shared by the political and military establishments of the moderate Arab governments in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.

    It is their view that if Obama adopts this plan, Iran can be sure of arriving at a nuclear weapon capability by the end of 2010, after winning six clear months for moving forward.

    No agreement on Iran, Palestinians in Obama-Netanyahu talks 18 May: US president Barak Obama stood by his demand for a Palestinian state while Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu continued to avoid this formula in their talks at the White House Monday, May 18, their first since both took office.

    They agreed that a nuclear-armed Iran would be a threat not only to Israel and the US but a destabilizing factor for the world and the region. However, Obama said he is in the process of reaching out to Iran and is confident he can persuade its leaders that a nuclear bomb is not in their interest either. These talks can’t go on forever,” he said: “At the end of the year we’ll see where we stand.”

    Netanyahu was less sanguine: “A nuclear-armed Iran which calls for Israel’s destruction is unacceptable and would give terrorists a nuclear umbrella.”

    The US president called on Israel to stick to the road map as “ratified at Annapolis” (which Netanyahu has rejected) and stop settlement activity. The Palestinians must fight terror. Obama pledged US involvement in peace talks as a strong partner.

    Netanyahu said he was ready to start talks with the Palestinians immediately. He wanted the Palestinians to rule themselves, but peace means they must recognize Israel as a Jewish state with the right to defend itself and live in security.

    Both agreed that Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia should be constructively involved in the Israel-Palestinian peace track and do more to develop relations with Israel at the outset.

    Nasrallah places his Hizballah on war preparedness
    DEBKAfile Exclusive Report     18 May: During a videotaped speech haranguing Israel for staging threatening military maneuvers, Hizballah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah Monday night, May 18, ordered a call-up of reserves and placed his terrorist militia on war preparedness.

    Our military sources reported that Hizballah was exploiting the alleged flight of suspected Israeli spies from Lebanon across the border into Israel to wind up border tension.

    On May 18, Elie al-Hayek, 49, a mathematics professor from Qleia, who walks on crutches, fled to Israel with his wife and three children after being accused of spying for Israel along with 13 other Lebanese nationals. Hizballah’s Al Manar TV claimed that two more suspected spies escaped Monday and several last week. Beirut has lodged a complaint with UNIFIL headquarters at Naqoura and demanded the escapees’ extradition.

    The spy mania gripping Beirut is exploited by the different parties campaigning for election on June 7.
    Hizballah is it and the escape of suspects to inflame border tension, and lift its image as the true custodian for the south after government and UNIFIL forces proved incapable of guarding the Lebanese-Israeli border.

    		 US Treasury targets Syria-based al Qaeda facilitator for Iraq
    DEBKAfile Special Report

    18 May: Damascus has ordered Syrian intelligence to permit Saad Uwayyid Ubayd Mujil al Shammari aka Abu Khalaf – named by Washington as the senior leader of al Qaeda’s Syria-based support network – to step up the flow of suicide bombers into Iraq to 20-30 a month.

    Abu Khalaf is a threat to “the safety of Coalition forces and the stability of Iraq,” said Stuart Levey, US Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial intelligence.

    In the early stages of its diplomatic exchanges with Washington, Syrian president Bashar Assad ordered the al Qaeda facilitator to slow down the traffic of foreign al Qaeda terrorists into Iraq. But when US presidential envoys started visiting Damascus on a regular footing, he lifted these restraints. As a result, al Qaeda reactivated its smuggling route for suicide bombers, weapons and explosives through the Euphrates River into Iraq’s Anbar province.

    In April, therefore, the US military death toll in Iraq shot up to 18 – double the March figure.

    Special US Marine forces patrol the river by boat to intercept them. On May 1, a patrol was ambushed in Anbar by al Qaeda suicide killers, who left two US marines and a seaman dead after a firefight.
    Assad is not expected to heed the renewed US sanctions over his backing for terrorists. Since last year, Abu Khalaf has also been recruiting North Africans for al Qaeda’s Iraq networks.

    Diskin: Hamas will not give Mid East peace a chance, can be toppled 19 May: US president Barack Obama’s planned Middle East initiative is a non-starter as long as the extremist Hamas rules the Gaza Strip, said Shin Bet (internal security agency) director Yuval Diskin Tuesday, May 19.

    Israel must decide once and for all whether to topple the Hamas regime, which can be done without conquering the Gaza Strip, in his view. Hamas will not let go of the Gaza Strip or its fundamentalist ideology, Diskin warned, while the Palestinian Authority is equally determined to hold on to the West Bank. But if elections were held on the West Bank today, Hamas would win.

    Until Egyptian special forces clamped down on smuggling through Sinai, Hamas had managed in four months to smuggle 46 anti-air missiles, 330 mortars, 37 short-range ground missiles and 17 tons of explosives into Gaza. It is aiming for missiles capable of reaching Tel Aviv, 63 kilometers away, although there is no evidence it has succeeded.”

    In Gaza City, Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhum forbade the Palestinian Authority to resume negotiations with the “Zionist enemy.”

    May 19 briefs: – US denies training “terrorists in Iraq’s Kurdish region” as charged by Iran, accuses Tehran of meddling in Iraq.
    – Abbas forms new Palestinian cabinet in Ramallah headed by Salam Fayyad.
    It is recognized by foreign governments but not by most of Abbas’ own Fatah party or Hamas.
    – Brown unveils major UK parliamentary reform in light of scandal over MPs’ income, allowances.
    UK Commons speaker Michael Martin forced to resign.
    – Ethiopian troops return to Somalia after Islamists seize towns from transitional government —
    – Israel’s High Court orders government to extend equal support to orthodox and non-orthodox Jewish religious bodies —

    Israeli air force hits Hamas-Gaza hard amid Lebanon border tensions
    DEBKAfile Special Report     20 May: In response to a twin Qassam missile attack from Gaza Tuesday, May 19, the Israeli Air Force went into action early Wednesday against a range of Hamas positions in Rafah, Khan Younes, Zeitun and Tufah suburbs of Gaza city and, Deir Balakh.

    DEBKAfile’s military sources also that several Sinai-Gaza smuggling tunnels, missile foundries and three Hamas command posts in Gaza City were struck in Israel’s most extensive Gaza raid since its major offensive ended in January. The Palestinians reported casualties.

    Tuesday night, the Palestinians fired a twin Qassam volley at Sderot. One missile injured a man and damaged his home.

    That morning, Shin Bet director Yuval Diskin told the Knesset foreign affairs and security committee that Hamas has cut back on its attacks because it needed a respite for rearming and regrouping after the Israeli offensive. Hamas loosed the missiles to prove him wrong and show US president Barack Obama and the Israeli prime minister Netanyahu in Washington who really called the shots in the Gaza Strip.

    After Sderot was hit, defense minister Ehud Barak and Netanyahu decided on powerful aerial retaliation.

    This was all the more necessary as Hamas was deemed to be testing the new Israeli government’s military reflexes and resolve. Another factor was the Hizballah leader’s decision of May 18 to raise border tension with Israel ahead of Lebanon’s June 7 election.

    US Vice President Biden consigned urgently to Beirut 20 May: The White House has urgently consigned vice president Joseph Biden to Beirut. He arrives May 22 to back the pro-Western government parties’ bid for re-election against Iran’s Hizballah and pro-Syrian factions, led by Gen. Michel Aoun. Lebanon’s fall into Iranian-Syrian hands would be a damaging setback for Washington.

    Senators call on Obama to take into account the risks Israel runs from a peace accord 20 May: Seventy-six US senators have called on President Barack Obama to continue to support Israel and “take into account the risks it will face in any peace agreement,” Tuesday, May 19, after meeting Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

    In a letter signed by 76 of 100 senators, Obama is told that “without a doubt, our two governments will agree on some issues and disagree on others, but the United States’ friendship with Israel requires that we work closely together as we recommit ourselves to our historic role of a trusted friend and active mediator.

    “We must also continue to insist on the absolute Palestinian commitment to ending terrorist violence and to building the institutions necessary for a viable Palestinian state living side-by-side, in peace with the Jewish state of Israel,” they wrote.

    Israel has no adequate interceptor for Iran’s new long-range missile
    DEBKAfile Special Report     20 May: DEBKAfile’s military sources report that Israel, the US and Europe were floored by Iran’s successful launch Wednesday, May 20, of a two-stage, solid-fueled 2,000-kilometer range missile, but most of all by the accuracy of its aim in destroying its target, as proudly claimed by Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

    US missile tracking systems confirmed the Iranian President’s boast of Sejil-2’s precision. Sounds of concern came from the Obama administration.
    Western military sources say Iran is at least two or three years ahead of Israel’s missile defenses.

    The Arrow 2 anti-missile missile system is no match for the Sejil, while Arrow 3 which would be, is still under development. Until now, the Americans and Israelis were confident that any incoming Iranian missile would veer off target and be easily intercepted. This assumption was nullified by the Sejil-2 launch.

    Iran’s feat comes at a critical time for its efforts to build a nuclear arsenal of at least 10-12 nuclear warheads. It obviates the strategic value of any understandings reached by President Obama and prime minister Netanyahu on Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.

    Israel marks annual Jerusalem Day

    21 May: At a national ceremony for the soldiers who died in the Battle for Jerusalem in 1967, prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu declared at the Ammunition Hill Memorial site: “I say here what I said in the United States this week: Jerusalem will never be divided and it will remain forever under Israeli sovereignty.”

    President Shimon Peres said: “Jerusalem has never been the capital of any other nation except for the Jewish people.”

    Under foreign rule, Jews were denied access to their holy places. Today, members of all faiths are free to worship at their shrines in Israel’s capital.