Category: Iraq

  • Turkish President Visits Iraq as Bombings Kill 34

    Turkish President Visits Iraq as Bombings Kill 34

    By Anthony Shadid and K.I. Ibrahim

    Washington Post Foreign Service
    Tuesday, March 24, 2009; Page A09

    BAGHDAD, March 23 — Bombs tore through two of Iraq’s most dangerous regions Monday, killing 34 people, in the third day of devastating attacks this month.

    A US soldier kneels by an Iraqi woman holding a baby as US and Iraqi troops distributed humanitarian aid in Baghdad, Iraq, Monday, March 23, 2009. (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban) (Hadi Mizban – AP)
    • Interactive Map: Big Bombings in Iraq

    The bombings came on a day that Iraq’s government had touted as another step in the restoration of normalcy to Baghdad. The capital buzzed with security for the arrival of Turkey’s president, Abdullah Gul, the first visit by a Turkish head of state in 30 years.

    U.S. officials have said attacks like Monday’s reflect desperation by insurgents, and cite numbers that show violence has dropped to levels not seen since 2003. But hundreds of Iraqis still die in attacks every month, and there is anxiety that violence may escalate as the U.S. military withdraws.

    Monday’s deadliest attack came when a bomber blew himself up inside a crowded tent at a funeral for the brother of a Kurdish official in Jalawla, in the fertile province of Diyala, northeast of Baghdad. Interior Ministry officials said 25 people were killed and 45 wounded, many of them mourners paying condolences. Local police said 20 people were killed and 44 wounded.

    Witnesses, reached by telephone, said the bomber exploded himself after the evening prayers, sending a fireball through the tent. By nightfall, nothing was left except the tent’s metal scaffolding, and chairs littering the ground. Witnesses said survivors carried out the dead and wounded, who screamed in pain.

    “We went inside the tent, and just a moment later, I heard a huge explosion and everything went black,” said Riyadh Kamil al-Qaisi, a 34-year-old brought to the hospital in Jalawla with wounds to his right leg and face.

    Snared in a still-resilient insurgency, Diyala remains one of Iraq’s most precarious regions. Its population is a mix of Sunni and Shiite, Arab and Kurd. Arabs there have bristled at what they view as Kurdish territorial ambitions, and insurgents still wield influence across the province.

    The funeral was for the brother of Khalil Abbas Khudadat, an official in the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, the party led by Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, officials said. Ibrahim Hassan Bajilan, a member of the Diyala provincial council and an official with Talabani’s party, said the majority of those killed and wounded were from his party.

    Earlier on Monday, police said a powerful blast tore through a house in Haswa, 15 miles east of Fallujah, killing nine people. Hospital officials said eight people were wounded. The Interior Ministry put the number of injured at 23.

    Police said the blast targeted Emad and Ayad al-Halbousi, brothers who served as leaders of Awakening — a tribal uprising that, with U.S. support, helped defeat insurgents in Sunni regions.

    The family of Ayad al-Halbousi discovered an explosive planted outside the house Monday morning, said Mohammed al-Zawbae, a Haswa police major. The family alerted police, who came to disarm it. As family members and neighbors waited outside in the street, another explosive tore through Emad al-Halbousi’s house before noon, he said.

    Both brothers were killed, along with three of their children, said Khalil al-Dulaimi, a doctor at Abu Ghraib Hospital, near the town.

    “We were at home when the police came and asked us to evacuate it to dismantle the explosives,” said Latifa Annad, a 50-year-old neighbor who had taken her children to a relative’s house, down the street, while the bomb was disarmed. “Then the explosion happened. I was wounded by flying glass.”

    It was the second attack in the region this month. On March 10, a suicide bomber targeting tribal leaders and security officials who had gathered for a reconciliation conference killed 33 people in a ramshackle vegetable market near the municipal office.

    In another attack Monday, Interior Ministry officials said a car bomb detonated in Tall Afar, 50 miles west of Mosul. One policeman was killed.

    Gul was welcomed at Baghdad International Airport by Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari and other officials in a visit that included talks with Talabani and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Turkey has pressed Baghdad and the government that runs the Kurdish autonomous region in northern Iraq to stop Kurdish rebels from launching attacks on Turkey from bases in Iraq. Those rebels have been fighting for autonomy in southeastern Turkey since 1984, in a struggle that has killed tens of thousands of people.

    In a news conference, Talabani said the rebels, loyal to a group known as the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, would have to end their fight from Iraq.

    “Either they will lay down arms, or they will leave our territory,” he said.

    Iraq wants Turkey to allow more water to flow through dams along the Tigris River, an issue of tremendous importance for a country that is largely desert.

    Correspondent Qais Mizher and special correspondents in Abu Ghraib and Baqubah contributed to this report.

  • Iraq and The Ghosts of 1956

    Iraq and The Ghosts of 1956

    Memorial of the Hungarian revolution in Budapest.

    The US’ actions – or inaction – during the Hungarian revolution and the First Gulf War should be taken into account when examining the next steps for Iraq, says Mitchell Cohen for World Affairs Journal.

    By Mitchell Cohen for World Affairs Journal

    So don’t be like all those people who could have saved themselves by their own efforts, but who abandoned their realistic hopes and turned in their hour of need to invisible powers – to prophecies and oracles and all the other nonsense that conspires with hope to ruin you.
    —The Athenians to the Melians in Thucydides, The Peloponnesian War

    [O]ut in the West we always used to consider it a cardinal sin to draw a revolver and brandish it about unless the man meant to shoot. And it is apt to turn out to be sheer cruelty to encourage men by words and not back them by deeds.
    —Teddy Roosevelt, explaining limits on the US response to a pogrom against Jews in Kishinev

    In America and the World, the recently published conversations between Zbigniew Brzezinski and Brent Scowcroft, the two former national security advisors speak to what is perhaps the most vexed foreign policy question before the new president: Can the US exit Iraq without wreckage becoming our legacy there?

    Brzezinski argues that we will be stuck “indefinitely” if we wait for Iraq to become “stable and secular or whatever.” In his view – the discussion took place in spring 2008 – the US military presence is now “perpetuating the problem.” In any event, he notes, Iraqi Kurdistan is semi-autonomous, Sunnis control much of the country’s middle, and Shiite militias dominate the south. When Scowcroft points out, “they’re fighting each other,” Brzezinski responds, “Fine, that’s their problem.” He acknowledges that “there may have to be a mini-civil war” following a US departure, but “after some skirmishing, there will be an internal accommodation.”

    Scowcroft distinguishes his own negative judgment of the war’s launch in 2003 from his reckoning about how we ought to cope with the war’s thorny consequences. Americans should make clear that we want to help Iraqis by saying “we can get out to the degree that you all get your act together.” Otherwise, Middle East powers may say: “First, you made the mess; now you’ve run and left it in our hands.” Both Scowcroft and Brzezinski argue in broadly “realist” terms, albeit with different political inflections. (Brzezinski says he doesn’t identify wholly with “realism.”) Neither seems overly concerned about the consequences of internal violence in Iraq. This dismissive tenor evokes that of an interview Brzezinski gave a decade ago to the French weekly Le Nouvel Observateur about the arming of Islamists against the Soviets during the Carter presidency. When asked about the invigoration of religious fundamentalists who might one day target the West, Brzezinski responded, “What is more important for world history? Taliban or the fall of the Soviet Empire? Some energized Islamists or the liberation of Central Europe and the end of the Cold War?”

    Cold War with the Soviet Union and hot war with Saddam Hussein are distinct matters, but there is not much moral distance between Brzezinski’s approach in 1998 and his formulation for today’s Iraq: Whether Americans engage you rightly or wrongly, he seems to say, you are a pawn. The practical perils embedded in these sorts of formulations should be fairly evident. It is difficult to see how, after the last six years, and whatever accords have been reached recently between Baghdad and Washington, we should not fret about worst case scenarios in Iraq. Civil war, mini or maxi, is not a Middle Eastern impossibility. It is easy to imagine the Kurds declaring independence should their current autonomy lose its protective cover. Turkey, fearful of implications for its own Kurdish minority, might invade and trigger all sorts of regional turmoil. Iran might find strife within Iraq preferable to the country’s stabilization as an Arab power. The human costs of such unhappy turns could be horrific, even more so than the original ill-planned American war and injudicious democracy-making. And these costs would be a direct consequence of US action.

    Were I a Kurd, I might worry about the extent to which Brzezinski’s attitude is representative of many Americans. This would be the trepidation of a member of a small, perpetually vulnerable people who knows that Americans have become justifiably tired of a war that went wrong in so many ways and whose rationales were so tainted. I might register how Scowcroft tends to be charier than Brzezinski about a swift pull-out, but also worry that his concern appears to be mostly practical. I might recall that Scowcroft was Henry Kissinger’s deputy when the Kurds revolted against Baath-ruled Iraq in the 1970s, with backing principally from Tehran and Washington. After the Shah made a deal with Baghdad, the Kurds were left to slaughter. Kissinger’s memoirs blame Iran’s ruler for the murderous aftermath, but explain that “in terms of a cold-blooded assessment of Iran’s security, the Shah’s decision was as understandable as it was painful.”

    If I were a Kurd, I might also recall that American and British leaders made public statements in the lead-up to and during the Gulf War of 1991 suggesting the good that might come of insurrections against Saddam Hussein. When Kurds (and Shiites) rose up, no help came. Scowcroft was central in restricting the war’s aim to evicting Iraq from Kuwait. This expulsion was a good in itself, and the limit made considerable sense from an American point of view. But while the Iraqi regime was indeed contained, Kurds and Shiites were left in the container.

    This is not an argument for or against particular US strategies and moves then or today; it is an attempt to complicate morally how we think about them, or at least one dimension of them. If you bill yourself as a hard “realist” in your approach to foreign policy – that is, if you think Washington should make only “tough,” narrowly conceived, geo-strategic calculations of “national interest,” and pretty much bracket anything that might be called “values,” then you will have little use for such an exercise. Nor will you have any more use for it if you consider yourself an unwavering idealist – that is, if you think values alone can determine politics, that they never conflict with other vital but perhaps foul imperatives, or if you think that the character of a regime determines entirely how it defines its interests. But if you think foreign policy, say that of the US, must entail an unfortunate, messy combination of these outlooks, and that the mix depends significantly on particular circumstances, then perhaps what follows will help clarify a little-examined category in wartime: the ethics of exhortation.

    Consider, then, two scenarios. Presented in somewhat imaginary form, their historical bases will be evident enough.

    A Powerful Country vies globally with a Formidable Rival. Their competition began just after a vast war, perhaps the worst humanity has known. In it, a common threat made them allies. But their interests diverge and so too their worldviews. Now they lead opposed blocs – call one the West and the other the East – in a standoff on a vital continent. Both have fearsome weapons. They prick each other verbally, yet neither wants war and so they respect, at least physically, each other’s turf.

    In the middle of the continent sits a small Unhappy Land. It was ingested into the East Bloc against its will. It lives, like all Bloc members, under one-party rule, and the Party shares the official “scientific” worldview of the Formidable Rival. Unfortunately, many citizens remain unscientific. So a secret police patrols life.

    The Powerful Country that leads the West wages “information wars” against the East in the name of freedom. The Formidable Rival campaigns on behalf of its official ideology. The leader of the Powerful Country – call him a President – is a former general. He doesn’t always approve of the rhetoric of his own foreign minister – let’s call him a “Secretary of State” – who is known for his Manichean worldview. The secretary of state calls for “roll back” of the East Bloc or to “liberate” its “captive nations” – but “peacefully.” He hopes, he says, to give the Formidable Rival “indigestion” by stirring up problems within its sphere of influence. Attitudes like his often inform “Radio Free All” (RFA), which was established by the Powerful Country’s intelligence services to broadcast into the East news and calls for liberation.

    Unrest begins late one autumn. Reform currents had emerged recently throughout the East Bloc, and demonstrators march for peaceful reform in the capital of the Unhappy Land. The worried ruling Party turns to a popular figure – let’s call him the Reformer – in the hope that things may be calmed. His public esteem is due to an earlier, brief tenure in which he modified some “scientific” policies. The Party, which always “consults” with its ultimate boss, the Formidable Rival, eventually ousted him. Now, as the order of things shakes, “consultations” return him to office.

    Shaking turns into commotion. The Reformer understands that his compatriots want change. He sides with them, but it is difficult to master the situation. An unruly dialectic plays out between his government and assertive demonstrators. Some rebels assault Party institutions and also attack some not-so-secret members of the secret police. The Formidable Rival’s alarm grows. It decides finally to ensure order – its own. In the chaotic meantime, the Reformer replaces one-party rule with a multi-party government.

    As events unfold, the president of the Powerful Country expresses sympathies publicly, but somewhat cautiously and a little awkwardly. His country’s “heart” goes out to the Unhappy Land, he declares. “Fervor and sacrifice […] in the name of freedom” would, he hopes, bring “real promise that the light of liberty soon will shine again in this darkness.” But he also makes clear that he will make no military moves on behalf of the insurgents. He has no intention of chancing catastrophic war over a small Unhappy Land.

    Nonetheless, RFA transmissions are impassioned. Its broadcasters are mostly émigrés from the Unhappy Land. They are often as Manichean as the secretary of state. They urge on the insurgents and, in contrast to the president, even suggest that western help will come. Decades later, a political analyst observed that “it was too much to expect” the freedom fighters in the Small Land “to understand the distinction” between the government of the Powerful Country “and the pronouncements of a radio station which had been expressly created as a vehicle for promulgating the ‘liberation’ policy which the secretary of state had claimed to be his own invention.” While the freedom fighters press on, the Reformer declares the independence of his Unhappy Land from the East Bloc. He appeals to the United Nations, but to little avail.

    The Formidable Rival’s troops finish their job. Refugees flee across the borders. The Old Regime is back. The Reformer is executed. “If my life is needed to prove that not all Scientists of Society are enemies of the people,” declares the Reformer on his condemnation, “I gladly make the sacrifice.”

    Indigestion dissipates.

    Here is our second scenario. It is three and a half decades later. The same Powerful Country goes to war far from its own borders, but in a perennially unstable part of the world. It has reason. An especially Brutal Regime there has occupied a resource-rich Principality. The Powerful Country, whose presence is still felt globally, has an interest in that small realm’s assets.

    The Brutal Regime is headed by a megalomaniacal Dictator. He wants the Principality’s resources to help pay for an indecisive and ghastly war he waged for a decade against another bordering state. Matters here are complicated because this Theocratic Neighbor has its own regional objectives as well as intense antipathies, on historical and ideological grounds, toward the Powerful Country of the West. The dislike is mutual and the Powerful Country was undismayed when the Brutal Regime and its Theocratic Neighbor were unable to defeat each other in their war. A useful balance of power resulted.

    The Powerful Country doesn’t act precipitously against the Brutal Regime. Its President obtains international approval and fashions a multi-national coalition. Fortune has helped too. His country’s old Formidable Rival, one of the Dictator’s friends, has been enfeebled just recently due to what its outmoded “scientific” ideology had called “internal contradictions.” The President has considerable flexibility as he maneuvers on the international scene. He also obtains legislative backing at home. And so a thirty-member multinational coalition, led by the Powerful Country, expels the Brutal Regime from the Principality. The coalition does not go so far as to raze the Brutal Regime itself. International sanction was given only to undoing its initial aggression. Or, more precisely, to undoing its external aggression, not that which it commits regularly against its own citizens.

    Developments now make our scenario increasingly complex, even morally problematic. During the run-up to war, and during some of the fighting, the President and some of his chief aides suggested publicly that rebellion would be a good idea for discontented and persecuted populations within the borders of the Brutal Regime. Vocal seconds came from some coalition allies. The President himself urged the world to recall the 1930s and the price of appeasement. What the Dictator did to the Principality was akin to “what Hitler did to Poland.” Just after the shooting began, an allied prime minister spoke about the Dictator in these terms: “I strongly suspect that he may yet become a target of his own people […] I, for one, will not weep for him.” A few weeks into the fighting, the President hoped aloud that the Brutal Regime’s citizens might “take matters into their own hands.” His Secretary of State said on television that an end to the war would “be a heck of a lot easier if  […]that leadership were not in power.”

    So it was that Oppositionists in the northern and southern territories of the Brutal Regime thought that coalition forces would aid them if they rebelled. There were all these public statements, but also radio broadcasts from the coalition and, or so Oppositionists later said, contacts with the coalition that indicated likewise. Mutiny begins. But no help comes, and the Dictator unleashes his characteristic ferocity. Tens of thousands die. Hundreds of thousands flee toward the borders. Yet the President of the Powerful Country, his Secretary of State and National Security Advisor are loath to intervene. They fear, with reason, that their soldiers will end up in a quagmire, caught in the midst of civil war. They fear, with reason, the daunting task of occupying a tumultuous land. If only the Brutal Dictator were dispatched by one of his own. If only he were replaced by another, more compliant, Strong Man. After all, a counter-balance is still needed to the Theocratic Neighbor.

    In the meantime, allies and public opinion grow distressed by television reports showing murderous attacks on hapless refugees who flee to encampments on freezing, mountainous borders. A leading legislator in the Powerful Country observes that “anytime you get into a conflict like this, there are certain obligations that flow from it.” Another declares that his country has “a moral obligation to do what we can” to stop the slaughter of “those who have the courage to resist.” Something, finally, is done in a circumscribed manner. The Dictator is contained, although he is left in power, all while a measure of protection is provided for his victims. The coalition establishes “Shelter Zones.” It does not occupy the ravaged country but uses control of the skies to thwart further attacks. An “umbrella” covers the battered populations in the country’s north and south, at least for the time being.

    Hungary, 1956. The Gulf War, 1991. The quotations in the preceding accounts are genuine although the historical narratives have been somewhat streamlined. There are sufficient similarities and differences between the two cases to make their comparison worthwhile. In both, the US signaled friendship for popular rebellion and was then prepared to close its eyes to the consequences. It would be surprising if antagonistic powers did not foment discontent within the other’s domains, yet the moral problem concerns how far this may go. Some political philosophers distinguish jus ad bellum, the justice of going into combat in the first place, from jus in bello, the rightness of this or that action during hostilities. These categories address, traditionally, the ethics of hot wars, but they bring up issues that can apply to a cold one too. Although the Hungarian Rebellion did entail bloodshed, this was, first, a question of jus in bello frigido. Washington did not provoke it, but sought – vocally, loudly – “indigestion” in the East Bloc. Hungarians, of course, had their own purpose. It was to remedy their own predicament, not to serve instrumentally, as an ailment to further the strategic needs of others.

    The Kremlin was the principal criminal in 1956. American policy, however, carried a moral burden. The Hungarians became little more than means to an end in Washington’s policy. Richard Nixon, then vice president, remarked a few months before the revolt that it would not be “unmixed evil” were a “Soviet iron fist” to come down hard on an east or central European country. Within days of Hungary’s defeat, the CIA was discussing how best to exploit politically the fleeing refugees. “There was no basis for our giving military aid to Hungary,” Secretary of State John Foster Dulles said later. “We had no commitment to do so and we did not think that to do so would either assist the people of Hungary or the people of Europe or the rest of the world.”

    If a moral burden comes with the American position, it is confounded by some realistic calculations that turn out to harbor a moral problem too. Had Washington lived up to its own rhetoric and intervened, cold war would have become hot. Hot war meant nuclear war. The consequences would have been by any reckoning vastly disproportionate to the plentiful misery brought to Hungarians by defeat to their revolution.

    What was left after the shooting stopped in Budapest? An unjust peace, and little to do about it. Hungarians faced repression and that was “their problem.” Yet when that unjust peace was undone in 1989, the US, then under President George H W Bush, was adroit and discreet in its public words. Bush thought back to anti-Soviet revolts in our efforts to transform countries like East Germany in 1953, Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968, and Poland in 1981. “I did not want to encourage a course of events which might turn violent,” he later explained, “and get out of hand and which we then couldn’t –  or wouldn’t – support, leaving people stranded on the barricades.” This care fostered peaceful revolution.

    The same cannot be said of another part of the world in 1991. Substantial dangers accompanied the Gulf War, yet none compared to nuclear war. The Soviet bloc had unraveled and Moscow, long a chief supporter of Baghdad, sanctioned the UN-blessed, US -led coalition that defeated Saddam. The principal post-war menaces, as seen from Washington, were two-fold. First, there was the danger of a Vietnam-like quagmire if coalition forces occupied the entirety of Iraq instead of restricting themselves to liberating Kuwait. The president and his advisors (rightly) perceived the perils of reconstructing a fractious land that had been held together by pitiless muscle. The second apprehension was that a weak Iraq would be unable to counterbalance Iran. It is one thing to defeat a foe; it is trickier to guarantee simultaneously that the beaten foe can stand up afterward to a third party. The Kurdish and Shiite uprisings complicated all this. “Neither revolt had a chance,” Colin Powell later wrote, “Nor, frankly, was their success a goal of our policy. President Bush’s rhetoric urging Iraqis to overthrow Saddam, however, may have given encouragement to the rebels. But our practical intention was to leave Baghdad enough to survive as a threat to Iran.”

    The president insisted later that the US intended only to promote a military coup against Saddam, not a mass response. Yet his own words and those of others belie this contention. Credulity is strained further by Scowcroft’s statement that “we did not expect the severity of the attacks on the Kurds.” For this to be so, we must imagine that the administration knew nothing of the fate of the Kurds in the 1970s or of Saddam’s butchery of tens of thousands of them in 1988. Saddam’s military prowess was contained, but this did not thwart his human rights abuses in areas under his control. Sanctions would cause problems for him, but he would bolster his power at the expense of the rest of his population. This was an unjust peace if ever there was one.

    The parallels between Hungary and the Gulf War raise queasy matters. They went unaddressed by the George W Bush administration in its justifications of war in 2003. Neither were they addressed by the war’s foes, who often seemed more focused on chastising the White House than attending to the fate of people living in Iraq. Did Americans inherit moral burdens because of actions by an American government in 1991? If yes, what could have been reasonably commensurate amends? And what are the implications for 2009?

    The answer to the first question must be yes, and this in turn broaches an array of subjects that philosophers and commentators have contested in recent years concerning reparations and statutes of limitations. Some, mostly on the left, have proposed that recompense is due to descendents of slaves or Native Americans or the victims of colonialism. These populations suffer, the argument goes, from wrongs of previous centuries that still impact on lives today. But if you think this is so and recognize also that a great harm was done in 1991, must we not think similarly about Iraqi Kurds and Shiites? Some American pundits chastised the French government for its anti-war position in 2003, on the grounds that the US sacrificed to liberate France during World War II. But Iraqi Kurds and Shiites sacrificed much. They became targets more recently than World War II, after the US and coalition allies suggested publicly, multiple times (and in multiple ways) that they should rebel against a known serial persecutor. Should not the U.S. and its allies have been obligated to help these insurgents?

    One could contend with considerable justification that there was a similar burden in the Hungarian case. As we know, there was a mitigating factor that would have prevented American intervention, and this was because it would have created a greater moral burden: nuclear war. This political and moral conflict between two principles – avoiding the massive deaths that would have accompanied nuclear exchanges and helping a population that the US encouraged to rebel – was not present in the Gulf War. Yet the failure (at first) to help the Kurds and Shiites cannot by itself qualify the Gulf War as unjust for a simple reason. Kuwait was freed. There was jus ad bellum for some, but not for others because of flawed jus in bello. The ensuing peace was just for Kuwaitis, unjust for the Kurds and Shiites. What, then, could have been amends? Coalition participants created safe havens and no-fly zones, but this was a humanitarian duty and provided, at best, provisional protection. It did not secure self-determination for the victims; it left them dependent on the outside world and in perpetual vulnerability. Consider policy twists by one coalition ally. France pressed at the war’s end to protect the Kurds. Six years later, after Jacques Chirac succeeded François Mitterrand as president, Paris suspended its role safeguarding them and limited its role shielding the Shiites. This was because American missiles were launched against Baghdad without consulting Paris. But neither were Kurds and Shiites consulted; the French move demonstrates precisely why the Gulf War’s end was an unjust peace.

    Some philosophers, as far back as Aristotle, argue that rectification of injustice ought to entail the return of an injured party to pre-harm circumstances. In the Iraqi case this, obviously, would have been senseless since it would mean delivering Kurds and Shiites to foreseeable slaughter. Still, their basic life circumstances could have been transformed. This, of course, presumes that Kurds and Shiites, for whatever their internal differences, ought to have each been considered as collectivities, rather than solely as individuals who suffered. Indeed, they were not targeted by Saddam as rebelling individuals but as rebelling Kurds and Shiites. Nor were coalition calls to rebel directed toward individuals.

    So how could amends commensurate to the harm have meant something less than freeing Kurds and Shiites from the ongoing menace of Saddam’s regime, which is to say ending it? This might be construed as an argument for the war that began in 2003. It is not. Scowcroft is right; one’s view of the war’s launch is a separate question from what should or should not be done now. All the more so because one potent argument against the war was that Bush II would not conduct it properly. This seems irrefutable now. If opting for war carries more ethical liability than almost any other political choice, the inability to conduct a war properly speaks decisively against entering it. Yet this last point also fails to address unjust peace and why it was unjust. We are left in a messy overlap of realism and idealism, with contradictory demands and lessons.

    One lesson is obvious: leaders need to be wary of calling on other peoples to take perilous actions. Consider the justification given often by the Bush I team about 1991 – that their exhortations or suggestions were misunderstood by Kurds and Shiites. Recall the words ascribed to Henry II within the hearing of his knights in 1170: “Who will rid me of this meddlesome priest?” The knights went on to murder Thomas Becket. The King repented but didn’t also explain that the word “Who” was ambiguous, the phrase “rid me” misconstrued, and that actually another option had been suggested against the priest.

    It is not evident the lessons of 1956 and 1991 have been learned. Senator John McCain, then the presumptive Republican nominee for president, apparently called Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili during last summer’s violent wrangle with Russia and told him, “Hang in there […]. We are not going to let this happen […]. We are doing everything we can to stop this aggression.” Although this statement addressed a leader in private and not a citizenry in public, it raises the same kind of problem. There were very limited things the UScould or was willing to do either for the president or the population of Georgia, just as there were few actions the US would take on behalf of Hungary.

    The ethical quandary concerns the instrumental use of others in wartime. On one level, instrumentality is intrinsic to war – even your own troops count as tools. A government might justify instrumental use of a foreign people if, balancing out other possibilities, it is likely to help thwart a military catastrophe with especially dark consequences. The opposite would have been the result had the US intervened in Hungary; nuclear war would have produced the darkest of consequences. This was not the case in Iraq. Even if coalition casualties might have been lessened due to revolts within Iraq, there was no danger that the coalition would have lost the war absent the uprisings. And the uprisings encompassed, unavoidably and predictably, civilian populations. Both the American president and the British prime minister appealed to the Iraqi citizenry; it was for more than indigestion in Baghdad. It was for the sort of upheaval that would place the rebels and their surrounding populations at massive risk. It is this massive and foreseeable jeopardy that makes such instrumentalism wrong.

    It also points us to two ideas that might regulate the instrumental use of foreign peoples during a war, cold or hot. The first is simple: you must make the limits of your own commitments apparent to them. The US posture was easily misconstrued in the Hungarian case. The president stated plainly that the US would not intervene militarily, but other remarks, especially public statements by his secretary of state over several years, and broadcasts from Radio Free Europe, could easily have led Hungarians to expect otherwise. In the midst of a hot war, Iraq in 1991, American and British leaders encouraged rebellion, as we have seen. Hence a second principle: it should only be permissible to rouse foreign populations to behavior that is likely to place them in life-threatening circumstances if you stand also ready to act as if they were your allies.

    When the Iraqi military fought American, French, British, Syrian, Saudi, and  the other soldiers of the thirty-odd coalition partners in 1991, all these anti-Saddam forces were obligated as allies to aid each other. When Israel, a non-coalition ally of the United States, was attacked by Saddam’s missiles, Washington asked Jerusalem not to retaliate and came to its assistance. This was clearly the right thing to do and not just for utilitarian reasons; the US asked a non-coalition ally to suffer assault for the sake of US interests. Why, then, ought there not to have been military support for populations in Iraq that rose up against Saddam’s regime at US bidding and then suffered attack? Why should they not have been treated immediately as if they were coalition allies?

    The implications extend beyond 1991. The US cannot treat the circumstances of Iraqis as simply “their problem.” All this points to the need for an international effort to secure the future of Iraq’s citizens through whatever difficult transitions may come in the next years. Colin Powell said of Iraq, “If you break it, you own it.” He meant that if you bring down a regime, you have the responsibility to govern its territory. The US didn’t exactly break Iraq (our media ought to talk a little about what Saddam did at Abu Ghraib before America’s wretched record there); and we do not own it. We do have a moral burden. Iraqis have a Shiite-dominated government in what may be deceptively calming circumstances brought by the American surge. The world is still uncertain for the Kurds, even if they have, arguably, the best circumstances in memory. Still, we cannot contend simply that the US must “get out quickly” or that “we must stay.” We need some complex thinking, moral and practical, about a situation that is as knotty as can be. We helped to make it, not just in 2003 but in 1991.

    My accounts of Hungary and Iraq draw from and are indebted to numerous government, journalistic and scholarly sources. Among them are: Charles Gati, Failed Illusions: Moscow, Washington, Budapest, and the 1956 Hungarian Revolt (Washington, D.C./Stanford, CA: Woodrow Wilson Center Press/Stanford University Press, 2006); Johanna C. Granville, The First Domino: International Decision Making during the Hungarian Crisis of 1956 (College Station: Texas A & M University, 2004); Victor Sebestyen, Twelve Days: The Story of the 1956 Hungarian Revolution (New York: Pantheon, 2006); Nicholas J. Wheeler, Saving Strangers: Humanitarian Intervention in International Society (Oxford, England: Oxford University Press, 2000); Lawrence Freedman and Efraim Karsh, The Gulf Conflict, 1990-91 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1993); Michael R. Gordon and Bernard E. Trainor, The Generals’ War: The Inside Story of the Conflict in the Gulf (New York: Little Brown, 1995); Christian Alfonsi, Circle in the Sand (New York: Doubleday, 2006). Note that the historical “Reformer” (Imre Nagy) in the “Unhappy Land” said “Communists,” not “Scientists of Society,” when he was condemned.


    Mitchell Cohen is co-editor of Dissent magazine and a professor of political science at Bernard Baruch College and the Graduate School of the City University of New York.

    Source:  www.isn.ethz.ch, 18 Mar 2009

  • New Alliances In Iraq Cross Sectarian Lines

    New Alliances In Iraq Cross Sectarian Lines

    Political Jockeying Suggests An Emerging Axis of Power

    In Baghdad, Saleh al-Mutlak, a leading secular Sunni Arab politician, says his supporters will ally with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, of the Shiite Dawa party, in four provinces. (By Andrea Bruce — The Washington Post)


    By Anthony Shadid

    Washington Post Foreign Service
    Friday, March 20, 2009; Page A01

    BAGHDAD, March 19 — Six weeks after provincial elections, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has allied himself with an outspoken Sunni leader in several provinces and broached a coalition with a militant, anti-American cleric, suggesting the emergence of a new axis of power in Iraq centered on a strong central government and nationalism.

    Negotiations are still underway in most provinces, distrust remains entrenched among nearly all the players, and agreements could crumble. But the jockeying after the Jan. 31 elections indicates that politicians are assembling coalitions that cross the sectarian divide ahead of parliamentary elections later this year, a vote that will shape the country as the U.S. military withdraws.

    “There is a new political map,” said Anwar al-Luheibi, a Sunni adviser to Maliki, who is a Shiite. “And I anticipate this map will be far better than the one we had before.”

    The negotiations and dealmaking mark a departure from politics that have hewed almost exclusively to ethnic and sectarian lines, fomenting the discord that brought Iraq to the precipice of civil war in 2006 and 2007. They represent the first round of a great game that may resolve a question unanswered since Saddam Hussein’s fall in 2003: What coalition of interests will find the formula to wield power in Iraq from Baghdad?

    With his strong performance in the provincial elections, Maliki is the front-runner in forging such an alliance, a remarkable ascent for a lawmaker considered weak and pliable when he was put forward as a consensus candidate for prime minister three years ago.

    Forgoing the slogans of his Islamist past for a platform of law and order, his party won a majority of seats on the council in Basra, Iraq’s second-largest city, and emerged as the single biggest bloc in Baghdad and four other provinces in the south, which has a Shiite Muslim majority. In most provinces, though, his party must make coalitions if it hopes to help determine who will fill the governorship and other key provincial positions.

    Saleh al-Mutlak, a leading secular Sunni Arab politician known for his nationalism and strident opposition to the U.S. occupation, said his supporters will ally with Maliki in four provinces: Diyala, Salahuddin, Baghdad and Babil. Mutlak heads the Iraqi National Dialogue Front, but his supporters ran under different labels in provincial contests. Mutlak said Ayad Allawi, a former prime minister who led a secular list in the campaign, will also join the alliances.

    The convergence of their interests is a stark contrast to the alliances that followed elections in 2005, which Sunni Arabs largely boycotted. Their refusal to vote gave religious Shiites and Kurds disproportionate power in provinces such as Baghdad, Diyala and Nineveh, all with substantial Sunni populations. In predominantly Shiite southern Iraq and Sunni western Iraq, power coalesced around ostensibly religious parties, whose members built their appeal on clandestine organizations in exile, underground networks under Hussein, support from Iran and other neighbors and, occasionally, the end of a militiaman’s gun.

    This time, some coalitions seem to be based on ideology: a strong central government that Maliki, along with secular candidates such as Allawi and Mutlak, have endorsed, as well as opposition to the kind of federalism espoused by Maliki’s Shiite rivals, who favor a Shiite-ruled zone in the south, and Kurdish parties that control an autonomous region in the north. Both Maliki and Mutlak have rallied support among Arab and nationalist constituents by opposing Kurdish territorial claims, particularly around the contested city of Kirkuk.

    Mutlak draws backing from among the still-numerous supporters of Hussein’s Baath Party in Sunni regions, and he has long pushed for reconciliation with its members. Despite his reputation as a Shiite hard-liner when he came to power in 2006, Maliki echoed the call this month. In a speech, he urged Iraqis to reconcile with rank-and-file Baathists, those he described as “forced and obliged at one time to be on the side of the former regime.”

    He declared that it was time “to let go of what happened” in the past.

    Mutlak said he told Maliki in a meeting two months ago that “there was a time when you stood against me on those issues. ‘You should be happy I changed,’ he told me.” Smiling in the interview, Mutlak joked that first the prime minister “stole the government from us, and now he’s trying to steal our political speech from us.”

    Mutlak said that Maliki had proposed an alliance for parliamentary elections, too. But, he said, “we’re still studying the message.”

    Since the fall of Hussein, religious Shiites and Kurds had effectively served as the coalition at the heart of power in Iraq. Maliki’s emergence has upset that formula, and virtually every component of the Shiite alliance has now gone its own way. The bloc that claimed to speak on behalf of long-reticent Sunnis has splintered, too, unable even to agree on a replacement for the speaker of parliament, who resigned in December.

    Fayed al-Shamari, a leader of Maliki’s Dawa party in Najaf who will serve on the provincial council there, said he foresees a grand coalition for the December parliamentary elections that would join Maliki with influential Sunni leaders, elements of the U.S.-backed Sunni movement that turned against the insurgency and perhaps even Moqtada al-Sadr, a militant Shiite cleric whose followers witnessed a political resurgence in the January vote. Strikingly, it would not include Maliki’s other Shiite rivals or Kurds.

    A hint of that alignment emerged in Wasit province, where Maliki’s supporters were reported to have joined with Allawi’s list and Sadr’s followers.

    “There’s a great possibility for this,” Shamari said, although even he questioned whether it could withstand the seismic conflicts over the very nature of the Iraqi state, namely its power in relation to the provinces. “With any coalition, you have an ambition for it to be permanent,” he said. “But ambition doesn’t always match reality.”

    Mutlak envisioned three main groups competing in the December vote: A list that he led, Maliki’s group and an alliance of Kurds and religious parties — both the Shiite Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and the Sunni-led Iraqi Islamic Party. One example of the third grouping has emerged in Diyala province, where the Supreme Council agreed to an alliance with the Islamic Party, said Ridha Jawad Taqi, a lawmaker from the Supreme Council.

    Mutlak, an agricultural engineer who grew wealthy under Hussein’s government and is sometimes spoken of as a candidate for Iraq’s presidency, said any future national alliance with Maliki would depend on cooperation in the provincial councils.

    “We want to see what he’s going to give,” he said in the interview. “Is he going to behave as a real partner or is he going to try to isolate the others?”

    He said he was still skeptical. “We don’t think Maliki is going to act in a democratic way. We’re worried that he’s collecting power in a dictatorial way.”

    Mutlak said it was his understanding that Maliki had already reached provincial alliances with an electoral list supported by Sadr’s followers, a deal that Shamari, of Maliki’s Dawa party, called likely. But spokesmen for Sadr and the list of candidates he supported said negotiations are ongoing.

    “We think they only want alliances in the provinces where they’re facing difficulties. They reject us in the provinces where they feel comfortable,” said Ameer al-Kinani, the head of the Trend of Free Independents, the list Sadr’s followers supported.

    Sadr’s supporters did especially well in Dhi Qar and Maysan provinces in the south, where negotiations are underway to pick top officials.

    To help win their backing, Sadr’s officials have insisted Maliki play a role in freeing their supporters in prison. Hazem al-Araji, a Sadr spokesman, estimated that as many as 1,500 remained in U.S. custody and 2,500 in Iraqi custody. Like other Sadr officials, he complained that security forces are still arresting their followers in southern provinces.

    “There has been a step toward each other,” said Salah al-Obeidi, another Sadr spokesman in Kufa, near the sacred city of Najaf. “But until now, Maliki’s coalition refuses to give any kind of guarantees and any kind of details of the map they will follow in representing the provinces. This arouses many fears with our friends.”

    Earlier in his tenure, when his position was far weaker, Maliki courted the Sadrists. Last year, though, he turned on them, dispatching the military against their militiamen in Baghdad and Basra. This time around, Sadr’s supporters say, Maliki seems to be trying to negotiate from a position of strength.

    “He’s not in need of the Sadrists anymore?” Obeidi asked. “Maybe, maybe.”

    But like Mutlak, he said they will watch the behavior of Maliki’s officials in the provincial councils to determine whether they could enter a broader alliance in the next election. “Until now we haven’t decided,” Obeidi said. “Yes, there are big obstacles between us. They can all be bridged. But until now, Maliki has not acted on any promises he made us.”

    Asked if he trusts Maliki, Obeidi shrugged. “I don’t trust any political figure,” he said.

    Special correspondents Zaid Sabah and Qais Mizher contributed to this report.

  • Talking ‘Turkey’ about genocide

    Talking ‘Turkey’ about genocide

    by Michael Tomlin

    Posted: Thursday, March 19, 2009

    Government, like business, needs leaders with standards, beliefs and values. We expect retailers to “just say no” to lead paint on toys. And we should expect our elected leaders to call genocide what it was and is.

    At issue is President Obama, caught in the pragmatic twist of pragmatists – people who believe only in current convenience – having declared during his campaign the historic annihilation of 1.5 million Armenians as “genocide” now may be backing off the term so not to insult Turkey, which he will visit in April.

    Turkey of course is that same country with laws protecting and prohibiting itself from being insulted. Write an unflattering book or article about Turkey and you can be arrested and jailed. That is insult enough, done to themselves, separating them from the enlightened world.

    In Michael Doyle’s story for McClatchy Newspapers (Idaho Statesman, Mar. 18, 2009) diplomats warn of potential fallout should the U.S. president stand and call the genocide of the Ottoman Empire what it was. It would be “poorly received,” stated one former ambassador. What should be poorly received is Turkey, in any collection of civilized nations until they learn to accept criticism.

    What if our congressional leaders failed to question the AIG banker bonuses because criticism might be “poorly received” in the banking industry? OK, the questioning is a sham … but at least it’s an open and contentious sham. Let’s cover up the peanut paste scandal, too, and not risk being poorly received by the company allegedly responsible for numerous food-borne illnesses and deaths.

    Just as a good parent chooses carefully whom they allow their children to play with, so should business leaders and elected leaders make similar choices – based upon values and beliefs, behavior, actions, and deserved reputations. This is not a call for isolationism; there are businesses and countries aplenty for us to “play” with.

    I recently cancelled an account with Bank of America, and will soon do so with AIG. There are plenty of others I cherish – my relationship with my State Farm Insurance agent, ditto for Mountain West Bank, a new relationship with Les Bois Credit Union, restaurants and shoe makers, airlines and my doctor. They re-earn my patronage with their behavior over the years, not just with each meeting or transaction.

    I expect no less from business leaders selecting their suppliers and distributers. And I have even a higher standard for my president. Stand for the United States and our interests, and don’t stand at all with those not ready for prime time on the world stage. It’s not the pragmatic view, but then values seldom are.

    00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

    Talking Turkey: Denying the Iraqi Genocide

    Written by Paul Craig Roberts
    Sunday, 21 October 2007 16:20
    The Iraqi Genocide
    by Paul Craig Roberts
    Why has not the Turkish parliament given tit for tat and passed a resolution condemning the Iraqi Genocide?

    As a result of Bush’s invasion of Iraq, more than one million Iraqis have died, and several millions are displaced persons. The Iraqi death toll and the millions of uprooted Iraqis match the Armenian deaths and deportations.

    If one is a genocide, so is the other.
    It is true that most of the Iraqi deaths have resulted from Iraqis killing one another. But it was Bush’s destruction of the secular Iraqi state that unleashed the sectarian strife.

    Moreover, American troops in Iraq have killed more civilians than insurgents. The US military in Iraq has fallen for every bit of disinformation fed to it by Al Qaeda personnel posing as “informants” and by Sunnis setting up Shi’ites and Shi’ites setting up Sunnis. As a result, American bombs and missiles have blown up weddings, funerals, kids playing soccer, and people shopping in bazaars and sleeping in their homes.

    Not to be outdone, Bush’s private Waffen SS known as Blackwater Security has taken to gunning Iraqi civilians down in the streets. How do Blackwater and Custer Battles killers escape the “unlawful combatant” designation?

    One can only marvel at the insouciance of the US Congress to the current Iraqi Genocide while condemning Turkey for one that happened 90 years ago.

    People seldom see the beam in their own eye, only the mote in the eyes of others. Every member of the Bush Regime is busily at work denouncing Iran for causing instability in the Middle East.

    Meanwhile, the US has invaded two countries, throwing them into total chaos, while beating the drums for war with Iran and conspiring with Israel to invade Lebanon and to attack Syria.

    The indisputable facts are that the US and Israel have attacked four Middle East countries and are determined to attack a fifth. Yet, it is peaceful Iran, at war with no one, that Bush and Israel blame for causing instability in the Middle East.

    Not content with its many wars in the Middle East, the Bush Regime is sponsoring wars in Africa and is setting up an African Command. The US government has been bombing and attacking other countries ever since the cold war ended. Instead of peace, the gang in Washington DC chose war.

    Other than the Israel Lobby, the greatest supporters of Bush’s wars are Christian evangelicals, specifically the “rapture evangelicals” and the “Christian Zionists.”

    I remember when Christianity was about saving one’s soul. Today it is about bringing on Armageddon. While the various evangelical Christians preach war in the Middle East, they condemn Islam for being a “warlike religion.”

    Americans are so full of themselves that they are blind to their extraordinary hypocrisy.
    The US government has broken every agreement with Russia by withdrawing from the anti-ballistic missile treaty, pushing NATO to Russia’s borders, conniving to place missiles in Poland and the Czech Republic, and buying governments in former Soviet republics and installing US military bases therein.

    When Russian President Putin finally has enough and protests, the US Secretary of State blames Putin for being difficult and restarting the cold war.

    Few Americans realize it, but they take the cake.

    International polls show that the rest of the world regard the US and Israel as the greatest dangers to world peace. Americans claim that they are fighting wars against terrorism, but it is US and Israeli terrorism that worries everyone else. The rest of the world knows that the wars are about US and Israeli hegemony and that the US and Israel are prepared to engage in whatever acts of terror are necessary to achieve hegemony.

    That is the bare fact.
    When the US dollar loses its reserve currency status, the US empire will come to an abrupt end. Sooner or later the rest of the world will realize this and, in an act of self-protection, dethrone the dollar.
    Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration. He was Associate Editor of the Wall Street Journal editorial page and Contributing Editor of National Review. He is coauthor of The Tyranny of Good Intentions.
    He can be reached at: PaulCraigRoberts@yahoo.com
    source
  • Poor Richard’s Report

    Poor Richard’s Report

    Turkey, U.S.: Strengthening Ties as Ankara Rises
    March 19, 2009 | 1837 GMT ADEM ALTAN/AFP/Getty ImagesTurkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ErdoganSummary
    U.S. President Barack Obama will visit Turkey on April 6-7 and meet with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The United States and Turkey have many areas of mutual interest, including Iraq, Middle Eastern diplomatic efforts, Iran and Central Asia. Obama’s visit indicates that his administration recognizes Turkey’s growing prominence, and it gives the United States a chance to coordinate policy with a rising power.

    Analysis
    Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan confirmed late March 18 that U.S. President Barack Obama will be visiting Turkey on April 6-7. In an interview with Turkish news channel Kanal 7, Erdogan said he had invited Obama to attend a meeting of the Alliance of Civilizations initiative in Istanbul on April 7, but “did not expect” Obama to arrive a day early for an official state visit to Ankara. “Combining the two occasions is very meaningful for us,” he added. Obama’s trip to Turkey will follow a visit to London for the G-20 summit on the global financial crisis, a NATO summit in Strasbourg, France, and a trip to Prague to meet with EU leaders.

    Obama’s decision to visit Turkey this early in the game highlights his administration’s recognition of Turkey’s growing prominence in the region. The Turks have woken up after 90 years of post-Ottoman hibernation and are in the process of rediscovering a sphere of influence extending far beyond the Anatolian Peninsula. The Americans, on the other hand, are in the process of drawing down their presence in the Middle East in order to free up U.S. military capabilities to address pressing needs in Afghanistan. With the Turks stepping forward and the Americans stepping back, there are a number of issues of common interest that Obama and Erdogan will need to discuss.

    The first order of business is Iraq. The United States is putting its exit strategy into motion and is looking to Turkey to serve as an exit route for U.S. troops and equipment from Iraq. The Turks would not have a problem with granting the United States such access, but they also want to make sure that U.S. withdrawal plans will not interfere with Turkey’s intentions of keeping Iraqi Kurdistan in check. With key Kurdish leader and Iraqi President Jalal Talabani retiring soon and Kurdish demands over the oil-rich city of Kirkuk intensifying, the Turks want to make clear to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq that Ankara promptly will shut down any attempts to expand Kurdish autonomy. Turkey will not hesitate to use the issue of Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) fighters hiding out in northern Ir aq as a pretext for future military incursions should the need arise to pressure the KRG in a more forceful way, but such tactics could run into complications if the United States intends to withdraw the bulk of its forces through northern Iraq. Therefore, the decision on where to base U.S. troops during the withdrawal process will be a political one, and one that will have to address Turkish concerns over the Kurds. Washington likely will see this as a reasonable price to pay, as it has other problems to handle.

    Related Special Topic Page
    Turkey’s Re-Emergence
    Beyond Iraq, the United States is looking to Turkey as the Muslim regional heavyweight to take the lead in handling some of the knottier issues in the Middle East. The Israeli-Syrian peace talks that went public in 2008 were a Turkish initiative. These negotiations are now in limbo, with the Israelis still working to form a new government, but the Turks are looking to revive them in the near future. Turkey, Israel, the United States and the Arab states all share an interest in bringing Syria into a Western alliance structure, with the aim of depriving Iran of its leverage in the Levant. However, the Syrians are setting an equally high price for their cooperation: Syrian domination over Lebanon. These negotiations are packed with potential deal breakers, but Turkey intends to take on the challenge in the interest of securing its southern flank.

    Iran is another critical area where the United States and Turkey see eye to eye. The fall of Saddam Hussein and the rise of the Shia in Iraq have given Iran a platform for projecting influence in the Arab world. But the Turks far outpace the Iranians in a geopolitical contest and will be instrumental in keeping Iranian expansionist goals in check. Erdogan’s outburst over Israel’s Gaza offensive was just one of many ways Turkey has been working to assert its regional leadership, build up its credibility among Sunnis in the Arab world and override Iranian attempts to reach beyond its borders. At the same time, the Turks carry weight with the Iranians, who view Turkey as a fellow great empire of the past and non-Arab partner in the Middle East. Washington may not necessarily need the Turks to mediate in its rocky negotiations with Iran, but it will rely heavily on Turkish clout in the region to help put the Iranians in their place.

    Some problems may arise, however, when U.S.-Turkish talks venture beyond the Middle East and enter areas where the Turkish and Russian spheres of influence overlap. Turkey’s influence extends into Central Asia and deep into the Caucasus, where the Turks have a strong foothold in Azerbaijan and ties to Georgia, and are in the process of patching things up with the Armenians. As the land bridge between Europe and Asia, Turkey is also the key non-Russian energy transit hub for the European market, and through its control of the Bosporus, it is the gatekeeper to the Black Sea. In each of these areas, the Turks bump into the Russians, another resurgent power that is on a tight timetable for extracting key concessions from the United States on a range of issues that revolve around Russia’s core imperative of protecting its former Soviet periphery from Western meddling.

    The U.S. administration and the Kremlin have been involved in intense negotiations over these demands. Washington is still sorting out which concessions it can make in return for Russian cooperation in allowing the United States access to Central Asia for supply routes to Afghanistan, and in applying pressure on Iran. As part of these negotiations, Obama will be meeting with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev at the G-20 summit and later in the summer in Moscow. Though it is still unclear just how much the United States is willing to give the Russians at this juncture — and how flexible the Turks will be in challenging Russia — Washington wants to make sure its allies, like Turkey, are on the same page.

    But as STRATFOR has discussed in depth, Russia and Turkey now have more reason to cooperate than collide, and recent diplomatic traffic between Moscow and Ankara certainly reflects this reality. In areas where the United States will want to apply pressure on Russia, such as on energy security for the Europeans, the Turks likely will resist rocking the boat with Moscow. The last thing Turkey wants at this point is to give Russia a reason to politicize its trade relationship with Ankara, cause trouble for the Turks in the Caucasus or meddle in Turkey’s Middle Eastern backyard. In short, there are real limits to what the United States can expect from Turkey in its strategy against Russia.

    Obama and Erdogan evidently will have plenty to talk about when they meet in Ankara. Though the United States and Turkey have much to sort out regarding Iraq, Syria, Iran and Russia, this visit will give Obama the stage to formally recognize Turkey’s regional prowess and demonstrate a U.S. understanding of Turkey’s growing independence. Washington can see that the Turks are already brimming with confidence in conducting their regional affairs, and can expect some bumps down the road when interests collide. But the sooner the Americans can start coordinating policy with a resurgent power like Turkey, the better equipped Washington will be for conducting negotiations in other parts of the globe.

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  • 2009 ANNUAL DUES, DONATIONS and Book Sales

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