Category: Iran

Family meetings: Syria, Iran, Turkey

Family meetings: Syria, Iran, Turkey

Author: Greg Austin

15 July 2011 – Issue : 944

In a joint press conference with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu last week, Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi declared those two countries to be part of one family with Syria. Alluding to the repression in Syria, Salehi said that the problems of one member could be solved amongst the family. This followed a statement by President Ahmadinejad that all citizens of the region should “enjoy equal rights, the right to vote, security and dignity”.

The ties in this triangular “family” do not run deep, but they are strengthening. This can be seen in the agreement in March this year among the three countries (plus Iraq) to issue a common tourist visa. There have also been moves to liberalize trade among the three countries, including through new investments in cross-border transportation designed to reach from Turkey to Pakistan and Afghanistan.

There are many ways to characterize the relative power of each of the three countries. It is clear that Turkey and Iran are far more powerful than smaller Syria. Turkey and Iran each have economies about ten times bigger than that of Syria (based on PPP estimates of GDP). On population size, Syria at 22 million comes much closer to its two neighbours, each with just under 80 million.

Yet, even while Turkey and Iran may have been the power holders in this family, Syria’s potential power, or at least influence, in current and emerging political circumstances is considerable. This may sound odd given the debilitating civil unrest and large scale violence against the citizenry in Syria. But there are governments in the region and outside it who are looking at this emerging family of three as a potential game-changer in regional affairs. The other big group of states most interested in this new family of three is the group of Arab monarchies, but Israel is watching closely too.

To understand and anticipate the direction and scale of change, now is the time for an opening up of new channels of political communication among these three countries on the one hand and, on the other hand, among them, Europe and the United States. One dilemma is that Iran and Syria are both viewed by so many in the West as outlaw states that it is hard to garner support for such new dialogues. But new conversations may well prove surprisingly beneficial in terms of new and unexpected outcomes.

The most productive subjects will probably not be the most highly political or the most topical, but rather ones that centre on regional economic integration and long term development of physical infrastructure to facilitate cross-border movement of people. One reason why such new talks, and an innovative framework for sustaining them, are so important can be seen in the number of regional threats and confrontations over which these countries hold some sway. These include terrorism in Iraq, Iranian and Syrian support for Hezbollah against Israel, and the half century military face-off between Syria and Israel. There are also important opportunities that seem to be begging, not least a hope for political liberalization and, less important but still strategically significant, a possible reduction of European dependence on the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz for transport of regional energy supplies.

Yet another reason lies in the changing shape of geopolitics and geo-economics in the region. International relations here are increasingly dominated by local powers while the authority and influence of the United States is ever more visibly in decline. As urgent as the current needs for European engagement might be in North Africa (Libya, Egypt, Tunisia), there are strong foundations in the Mediterranean for European engagement there. These include the Barcelona Process and the Mediterranean Union. By contrast, very stark at that, Europe has few assets for political engagement with Syria, Iran and Turkey on matters that concern these local states most. Who can lead Europe on a new course of dialogue in this region?

via Family meetings: Syria, Iran, Turkey – New Europe.

July 16, 2011
Iran’s potential should be used to settle Mideast problems

Iran’s potential should be used to settle Mideast problems: Turkey

Tehran Times Political Desk

TEHRAN — Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has said that Iran’s significant potential should be utilized to help resolve problems facing the Middle East.

Davutoglu made the remarks during a meeting with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Tehran late on Monday.

“Today, the significant potential of the Islamic Republic of Iran should be used to help resolve the problems facing the Middle East region,” Davutoglu stated.

He also described Iran as an “influential” country on the regional stage.

Davutoglu added, “Today, the Islamic world is undergoing a special crisis, and Iran and Turkey shoulder a heavy responsibility at this juncture.”

Elsewhere in his remarks, the Turkish foreign minister described relations between Iran and Turkey as good, adding, “Tehran-Ankara cooperation would help settle problems in the region and would bring sustainable security to the region.”

Ahmadinejad stated, “Enemies are concerned and unhappy about close relations between Iran and Turkey because they think that would harm their interests and serve the interests of regional nations.”

Elsewhere in his remarks, Ahmadinejad advised regional countries to remain vigilant in the face of outsiders’ plots, particularly those hatched by the United States, adding foreign intervention will take its toll on regional countries.

“Regional states should be watchful and not help implement the intrigues devised by the United States, which are meant to improve its economic situation and save the Zionist regime,” he said.

He added, “Efforts should be made to restrain this fake regime, and any action taken in line with (attempts to serve) the interests of this regime would be suicidal.”

Davutoglu also held talks with Iranian Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani late on Monday

via tehran times : Iran’s potential should be used to settle Mideast problems: Turkey.

July 13, 2011
Syria, Iran, and Turkey are members of one family: Salehi

Syria, Iran, and Turkey are members of one family: Salehi

Tehran Times Political Desk

TEHRAN — Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu held a meeting in Tehran late on Sunday, in which they discussed the latest developments in the region, notably the unrest in Syria.

During the three-hour meeting, Salehi and Davutoglu emphasized the need to hold regular consultations between Iranian and Turkish officials on the developments taking place in the countries that have been experiencing pro-democracy uprisings in order to help defuse the crisis in these countries, help people realize their legitimate demands, and help prevent foreign intervention in the internal affairs of these states.

The negotiations also covered the developments in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Bahrain, and Palestine as well as relations between Tehran and Ankara.

During a joint press conference after the meeting, Davutoglu said, “All regional countries should pay attention to public demands and consult with great countries in the region such as Iran.”

He also stated, “Syria is (Turkey’s) valued and good friend and is the brother of Turkey and has close relations with Iran.”

“In tonight’s meeting, we exchanged views on the issue of Syria,” Davutoglu said, adding, “Our positions and consultations are in line with (efforts to help) resolve the problems, and we share our concern and viewpoints with our brothers.”

On Ankara’s stance toward the pro-democracy uprisings in the region, he said, “We are opposed to resistance to public demands in regional countries as well as any action which violates human rights, and at this critical juncture we call on regional governments to respond positively to people’s legitimate demands.”

Salehi said, “Syria, Iran, and Turkey are members of a family, and if any of the members of the family faces a problem, the entire family should make moves to help remove that.”

He also stated that necessary measures should be taken to prevent sectarian strife in the region.

“Iran is the friend and brother of Turkey and Syria, and (holding) consultations between members of a family is normal,” he added.

Regional nations will not fall for outdated U.S. plots

The Turkish foreign minister also met with secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Saeed Jalili on Monday.

During the meeting, Jalili said that regional nations’ awakening and vigilance about the outmoded plots of the U.S. will not allow the global arrogance (forces of imperialism) to extend its dominance over the region.

Davutoglu also emphasized the need to hold consultations between Iranian and Turkish officials.

July 12, 2011
Turkey in a quandary over missile threat

As Iran develops technologies associated with ballistic and cruise missiles, neighbouring Turkey faces an emerging security threat.

By Aaron Stein for Southeast European Times in Istanbul – 05/07/11

”]Recent war games in Iran have again attracted attention to the significant resources the Islamic Republic is devoting to extending the range of its current stockpile of ballistic missiles and the development of cruise missiles to overcome existing ballistic missile defences (BMD).

“Iran’s long-range missiles have been worrying Ankara for more than a decade,” Sebnem Udum, an associate professor of international relations at Hacettepe University, told SETimes, adding that ballistic missile defence (BMD) has become more important for Turkey’s future defence plans.

At the same time, “Ankara does not want to send the wrong signals to Iran,” she says.

For this reason, Turkey objected to the naming of Iran and Syria as specific threats to the Alliance during negotiations with its NATO Allies in 2010, out of concern it would actually spur both Iran and Syria to speed up their missile programmes.

The Turkish leadership “aims to solve problems within a ‘co-operative security’ framework based on talks, improved relations, and trade”, Udum says.

NATO eventually agreed to remove Iran and Syria from its final declaration of specific threats and, as part of this compromise, Turkey agreed to host one radar installation for the Alliance’s missile defence shield.

Despite agreeing to the shield, Ankara has shown it is intent on pursuing an independent BMD capability.

The proposed independent BMD system has potential drawbacks, however, according to Dennis Gormley, a security studies professor at the University of Pittsburgh and author of “Missile Contagion”.

“Turkey might not have access to ballistic missile warning information, as well as the benefits of working with NATO partners in training on tactics and procedures related to perfecting missile defence operations,” he told SETimes.

According to Gormley, neither Turkey nor NATO should focus on ballistic missiles at the expense of guarding against other risks. “The threat of land-attack cruise missiles is also growing and is much more demanding than that of defending against aircraft,” he said.

Cruise missiles are essentially small-unmanned aircraft designed for offensive missions. Their low trajectory, terrain masking capabilities and 360-degree route of attack make it difficult for current BMD sensors to track and identify these targets. Despite having a theoretical capability to intercept low-flying cruise missiles, “significant improvements are needed in airborne sensors and radar data sharing to provide defence,” Gormley said.

Iran is known to have imported 18 Kh-55 cruise missiles with a range of 3,000km in 2001, and is developing a cruise missile based on the Chinese Silkworm that could conceivably carry a well-designed nuclear warhead 105km, according to the Nuclear Threat Initiative.

Turkey has not announced any plans to defend against the growing threat of cruise missiles, choosing to focus solely on ballistic missiles.

Advanced fighter jets, like the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, have some capability to defend against cruise missiles, but improvements are needed to adequately defend against a cruise missile attack.

According to Gormley, “the F-35’s active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar could track low-flying cruise missiles.” If equipped with advanced medium range air-to-air missiles, “they could destroy such missiles, including the Kh-55 and Ra’ad,” he said.

Turkey is a member of the US-led consortium building the plane and has indicated a willingness to buy 100 F-35s over the next 15 years.

While such a capability would be good for small volume attacks, the limited range of the plane’s radar would present problems for larger attacks, says Gormley.

This content was commissioned for SETimes.com.

via Turkey in a quandary over missile threat (SETimes.com).

July 6, 2011
Turkey and Iran Vie for Control of Iraq

By WLADIMIR van WILGENBURG

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Turkish Prime Minister Receb Tayyib Erdogan. Photo AFP.

ERBIL, Iraqi Kurdistan — A recent report by the United States Institute of Peace suggests that Washington should be less concerned about increased cooperation between Turkey and Iran because the two countries have different visions for the Middle East, suggesting that the “renewal of the historical Ottoman-Persian rivalry in Mesopotamia is likely as the dominant American presence fades.”

The US is scheduled to withdraw all of its forces in Iraq in December 2011. Some observers believe that this will open the door for neighboring countries to influence Iraqi politics.

“[Iran and Turkey are] rapidly becoming the most influential external actors inside the country as the U.S. troop withdrawal proceeds,” United States Institute of Peace (USIP) Iraq program officer Sean Kane wrote in his report “The Coming Turkish-Iranian Competition in Iraq.”

“From the sixteenth century until the collapse of the Ottoman Empire after World War I, Iraqi history was largely determined by the ebb and flow of conflict between Ottoman Turks and the Safavid Persians,” Kane wrote.

The US withdrawal could result in the resumption of the competition between Iran and Turkey, the heirs of the Ottoman and Persian empires.

Iraqi Kurdish officials share this view and are anxious about the historical rivalry between Iran and Turkey. In 2010, Iraq’s Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, a Kurd, identified Iran and Turkey as “the biggest players and rivals in Iraq”.

“When in August 2010, Iran opened a trade center in the Kurdish city of Sulaimani, its first such outpost, Iran’s deputy minister of commerce, complained that Turkey, which he described as ‘Iran’s rival in that country,’ had already opened twelve such centers,” Kane wrote.

Furthermore, Iran has been concerned with the high-profile visit of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Erbil in April. Erbil’s Governor Nawzad Hadi told Rudaw that Iran was not very happy when the Turkish prime minister visited Kurdistan.

“Turkey and Iran compete in Kurdistan,” he said.

Joost Hiltermann, Middle East and North Africa Deputy Program Director for the International Crisis Group told Reuters that opening the Turkish consulate in Basra in October 2009 was meant to curb Iranian influence in Iraq through investments and trade.

Kane suggests that Turkey should use its “successful” outreach such as Erdogan’s visit and Turkey’s economic relations with the Kurdistan region to improve its relations with Shiite parties in Iraq.

“A similar strategic outreach to Shiite parties based on economic integration and Ankara’s and Baghdad’s common interest in a stable and strong Iraq could have similar mutual benefits,” Kane wrote.

While Turkey supported the secular Iraqiya list, an alliance of Arab nationalists and Turkmen in the March 2010 Iraqi elections, Iran supported a Shiite-dominated coalition to prevent Sunnis from taking power.

“Iran and Turkey therefore tend to work at cross purposes in Iraqi politics, as seen in the protracted power struggle surrounding Iraq’s 2010 election cycle,” Kane wrote.

The US is concerned about the continuing Iranian influence in Iraq. On June 15, American soldiers were killed by suspected Iran-backed groups in Iraq, which marked the highest casualties for the American troops in two years.

Major General Jeffrey Buchanan, chief spokesman for the US military in Iraq, told the Washington Post that the biggest threat to US troops comes from some Iran-backed Shiite groups in Iraq.

And as the deadline for the US troop withdrawal approaches, Iran is increasingly pushing the Iraqi authorities not to extend the presence of US forces.

“It is now pushing strongly, most notably through the Sadrist (Movement) and its leader Muqtada al Sadr… to prevent any request by the Iraqi government for a continued U.S. troop presence after 2011,” Kane wrote.

Kane concluded that the Turkish “blend of Islam, democracy, and soft power is a far more attractive regional template than the Iranian narrative of Islamic theocracy and hard power resistance.”

“The United States should therefore continue to welcome increased Turkish-Iraqi economic, trade, and energy ties and where possible support their development as a key part of its post-2011 strategy for Iraq and the region,” Kane writes.

via Rudaw in English….The Happening: Latest News and Multimedia about Kurdistan, Iraq and the World – Turkey and Iran Vie for Control of Iraq.

July 3, 2011
Iran: Turkey Must Not Pressure Syria

Iran: Turkey Must Not Pressure Syria

The Iranian daily Kayhan, which is close to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, warned Turkey that if it continues to pressure the Syrian regime and to call on Hamas to recognize Israel, then Iran, Syria, and Iraq would limit their cooperation with it.

An article in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps weekly Sobh-e Sadeq said that Ankara had encouraged Syrian citizens to flee to its territory in order to increase the number of refugees there – thus justifying foreign intervention in Syria.

The article further said that Ankara’s actions against Syria on behalf of the U.S. and Israel, would lead to an uprising by the Syrian Turks and by millions of Alawis living in its territory.

Source: Kayhan, Sobh-e Sadeq (Iran), June 27, 2011.

via Iran: Turkey Must Not Pressure Syria.

June 29, 2011