Greek Cypriots must be thinking that with friends like these (the EU and Russia, both seeking to extract their pound of flesh for any bail-out), who needs enemies?
Well, what if Cyprus begins to think outside the box, and what if it goes to its erstwhile enemy, Turkey, for assistance?
How about this: Turkey provides €7bn in assistance, saving Cypriot savers from the chop in exchange for Cyprus agreeing to the terms of the 2004 Annan peace plan for the unification of the island.
In return for its cash, Turkey would get agreement on the peace plan it backed back in 2004 and which was supported then by two thirds of Turkish Cypriots in an island-wide referendum. Admittedly, it was rejected by three quarters of Greek Cypriots but this was in no small part due to the intransigence of the then Papadopoulos administration.
By so doing, Turkey would save a very big chunk of the substantial aid (and significant military spending) it pumps into northern Cyprus every year, and the north would gain access to EU structural funds. Turkey would also remove a big Achilles heel in terms of its own EU accession bid, stalled by disagreement over the divided island.
Turkey would win huge international kudos for doing the right thing by helping a neighbour in need. And it would send a clear message to some of its foes in core continental Europe that Turkey has indeed matured and is worthy of a place at the heart of Europe – though after developments this week I am not sure that Europe would be worthy of Turkey.
Any financial assistance could be backed by stakes in the Cypriot banks – although, as the Russian banks seem to be indicating, these may offer little value given the holes in their balance sheets.
Peace and unification on the island could then perhaps open up the energy reserves south of the island for joint exploration by Cypriot (Turkish and Greek) and Turkish companies. Remember here that perhaps Turkey’s biggest current strategic priority is to reduce its dependency on energy imports, which cost the country around $55bn a year, and in 2012 came in larger than the country’s current account deficit (equal to 6 to 7 per cent of GDP).
For Turkey, €7bn is relatively small change, equivalent to just over 1 per cent of GDP, especially when set against the “peace dividend” which could come with the unification of the island, progress on EU accession and the associated “feel good factor” for the economy and business more generally, alongside the potential energy dividend. The Turkish treasury has ample funds in its cash reserves and could easily tap markets for an injection into Cyprus, perhaps borrowing under a new Cyprus-Turkey friendship bond programme, for which the likely cost would be only 4 to 4.5 per cent at most. The US would no doubt be happy, as it would remove one further regional dispute in a tricky region, and it would also counter talk of Russia moving its naval base in Syria to Cyprus in exchange for a bail-out.
In times of crisis, you really find out who your friends are. The hope is that the neighbours will rally around. On the Kurdish problem, prime minister Erdogan seems willing to take a (huge) gamble for peace. The current crisis in the Republic of Cyprus could present a similar opportunity for peace and prosperity for both sides.
Timothy Ash is head of emerging markets research ex-Africa at Standard Bank. A version of this post was issued as a note to clients on Thursday.
via Guest post: Turkey to the rescue? | beyondbrics.
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak (L) and his Greek counterpart, Dimitris Avramopoulos, watch a military parade at the Defense Ministry in Athens, Jan. 10, 2012. (photo by REUTERS/Yiorgos Karahalis ) Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/03/israel-turkey-greece-relations-improve-gas-cooperation.html#ixzz2O9qvK1BW
By: Jean-Loup Samaan for Al-Monitor
Earlier this month, the navies of Israel, Greece and the United States gathered to conduct a two-week joint military exercise. This operation, named “Noble Dina,” was launched in 2011 and has since then been conducted each year. It can be seen as one of the various indicators that Israel and Greece are in the process of strengthening their bilateral ties. Indeed, for the last three years, both countries have moved closer to each other.
About This Article
Summary :
Jean-Loup Samaan writes that the Israel-Turkey split is not really grounded in substance but rather in the personal ties of their leaders, and that a thaw may be in the works.
Author: Jean-Loup Samaan
It all started through various high-level visits at the level of presidents, prime ministers and defense ministers. In 2010, former Greek Prime Minister Georgios Papandreou visited Jerusalem and signed a cooperation memorandum. The following year, Israel defense Minister Ehud Barak and his Greek counterpart, Panos Beglitis, went further by passing a security cooperation agreement. Meanwhile, the Greek parliament approved the purchase of Israeli bomb-precision upgrade kits, which cost $155 million for 400 systems.
The Israel-Greece rapprochement is not only visible in the military realm but also in other sectors such as tourism, culture, education and trade. Prior to the Papandreou visit of 2010, there were around 150,000 Israeli tourists each year coming to Greece. For 2012, they were estimated to reach 400,000. Furthermore, since late 2011, Israel has been working closely with Greece and Cyprus in the extraction of the newly found natural gas reserves in the Southeastern Mediterranean. The discovery of these reserves in the exclusive economic zones of Israel, Cyprus and Greece has generated a new area of cooperation for the three countries. Israeli Energy Minister Uzi Landau talked in 2010 of “an axis of Greece, Cyprus and Israel, and possibly more countries, which will offer an anchor of stability.”
With regards to the gas reserves in the Mediterranean, this huge project is valued at 10 billion euros ($13 billion), so far mostly funded by Israel. Experts evaluate that it will take about six to seven years to complete. On the long haul, for Israel, Greece may become a hub through which it could transport and export gas supplies to Europe and the Balkans. This Israel-Greece-Cyprus initiative has logically triggered strong opposition from Turkey, which does not recognize the government in Nicosia and objects to the claims of the Greek Cypriot Administration over the gas reserves in the south of the island. Ankara responded by conducting air and sea military drills close to the area of the planned project and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu threatened that Turkey would take appropriate measures if the three countries were to go on with the project. This has been denounced by Israel as “gunboat diplomacy.”
This is where the logic of Israel-Greece starts to unfold: this rapprochement clearly grew in earnest following the degradation of Israel-Turkey relations. The rift between Ankara and Jerusalem became palpable after Israel’s Cast Lead operation in the Gaza Strip in December 2008 and Prime Minister Erdogan’s strong condemnation of Israeli military adventurism. Turkey then decided to put a halt to its mediation efforts between Israel and Syria. The split got worse a year later with the crisis of the Mavi Marmara flotilla. On May 31, 2010, the Israeli military shot and killed nine Turkish citizens who were on board the “Freedom Flotilla” that was heading toward the Gaza Strip. Since then, political dialogue between both countries is in a deadlock, with Israel’s government refusing to apologize for the clash over the Turkish flotilla and the authorities of Turkey blocking not only bilateral cooperation but Israel-NATO cooperation as well.
It is in this specific context that Israel-Greece relations have been improved. True, the Israelis and the Greeks emphasize that cooperation did not come out of the blue in 2010, that the first bilateral economic agreement was written in 1992 and the first military agreement in 1994 — in fact before the one between Israel and Turkey. Still, this move has all the features of a classic balance-of-power move by Israel vis-à-vis Turkey. Noticeably, the Greek-Israeli military exercises in the last years have taken place close to Turkish borders and, needless to say, they engendered major concerns in Ankara. This logic of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” is not without embarrassment for the Greeks who want to see more than bitter politics in the rapprochement. In fact, it is in the interest of neither Greece nor Israel to confine their rapprochement to a move to counterbalance Turkey.
Athens is not so keen on using its Israeli policy to antagonize Ankara: The new Greek prime minister, Antonis Samara visited Turkey this month to commit his country to the enhancement of the relationship with its historical rival. Specifically Samara, along with Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan pledged to double their annual trade over the next three years.
Meanwhile even though Israelis might have been tempted to use their Greek policy to counter Turkey’s strategy and to proclaim it as a long-term strategic realignment, decision makers are eventually aware that in no way can Greece provide them with the kind of strategic reach Turkey was providing. Not only is Greece enduring a financial crisis that is eroding its military capabilities, but it never had the type of leverage Turkey enjoys in the Middle East and that Israel crucially needs today.
In fact, after three years of euphoria on the rapprochement with Greece, Israeli diplomats and officers are toning down the idea of geopolitical shift or the one of a zero-sum game. In reality, diplomats in Jerusalem and the military in Tel Aviv are eager to fix the partnership with Turkey. This reflects how the Israel-Turkey split is not really grounded in substance but rather in the personal relationship of its leaders.
In the last months, there have been numerous signs that both countries may be in the process of restoring their political relations. Several high-level meetings have taken place, including the heads of intelligence in Cairo. Besides, far away from the political upheaval, bilateral trade did not really suffer and its volume is in fact at its highest level in history.
All in all, this means that the speculation over Israel-Greece rapprochement should be treated with caution due to the strategic limitations of the bilateral relations as well as to the clear need of both countries to avoid portraying it as a zero-sum game vis-à-vis Turkey.
Jean-Loup Samaan is a researcher in the Middle East Department of the NATO Defense College. His current research projects include the Israel-Hezbollah stand-off since the 2006 war, the Syrian civil war and its impact on the region as well as the evolution of regional security system in the Gulf.
Turkish firm delivers 5th vessel to Norway and works on nine other vessels under way.
STOCKHOLM — Turkish firm has delivered fifth ship to Norway and works on manufacturing of nine more ships have been continuing.
Following the launch of platform supply vessel Grand Canyon in 2012 in Yalova which was attended by Transport, Maritime Affairs and Communications Minister Binali Yildirim and Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg, the fishing vessel which was built at Tersan shipyards in Yalova, northwestern province of Turkey, has been delivered to Norwegian Maritime Company Strand Rederi.
The vessel was named Havbryn at a ceremony held in Norway’s Alesund city which was attended by both Turkish and Norwegian authorities.
The vessel is 70 meters long and 15.4 meters wide and it has a mechanism that can process the hunted fish.
Speaking at the ceremony in Norway, Tersan Shipyard Board Chairman Osman Nurettin Paksu said they delivered five vessels including petrol supply vessel, platform supply vessel and fishing vessels. They also discussed the building of seismic vessels and the works on building of nine more vessels, he added.
20 March 2013
Anadolu Agency
via Turkey continues to export ships to Norway, 20 March 2013.
Croatian Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic has thanked Turkey for being “a friend of Croatia during the country’s hardest times.” Milanovic made his remarks during a meeting with Turkish Parliament Speaker Cemil Cicek in Zagreb on Tuesday. He added that Croatia would support Turkey’s EU bid after the country became the EU’s newest member on July 1.
via Milanovic promises support to Turkey – General News – Croatian Times Online News – English Newspaper.
Moscow and Cyprus are still negotiating terms of a potential bailout.
Most will hail the crisis’s receding if a deal is reached.
But for Turkey, seeing Cyprus and Russia growing even closer together could revive age-old hostilities between Moscow and Istanbul.
Depending on how far back you want to go, the love between the two was first lost upon Mehmed II’s sacking of Constantinople — capital of Christian Orthodoxy — in 1453.
Then came the Crimean war in the 1850s, which pitted Russia against the Ottoman Empire (as well as France and Britain) over the rights of Christians in the Middle East.
And during the Cold War, Turkey became a staunch ally of the U.S.
Relations have improved more recently, especially under President Medvedev.
Google MapsBut the conflict that engulfed Cyprus in the ’70s — which saw Turkey invade the island to prevent it from coming under Orthodox Greece’s influence — has never actually ended.
To this day, a small enclave calls itself “The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” and is recognized by Turkey (though they’re the only ones who do so). As recently as 2001, Turkey was threatening to annex the north if Cyprus joined the EU.
We already know Russians do a lot of business on the island, so any more intimate relations between the two countries — like a naval base — shouldn’t really come as a surprise.
But that kind of move will not likely sit well in Istabul.
via Cyprus Crisis And Russia Turkey Tensions – Business Insider.
By Christina Flora on March 19, 2013 In Culture, Education, News, Turkey
Seventy two fifth-graders from the Mandoulides elementary school, Thessaloniki will travel to Turkey, where along with 17 students from the Zografeion Lyceum will take part in the musical-theatrical performance, A Magical City, based on a fairy-tale by Helen Priovolos
The performance will be held in the Zografeio Lyceum in Istanbul on March 21. It is a love story set in a beautiful port of Pontus, named Farmakea, where a young man, Kourkoumas, falls in love with a beautiful girl named Kanella.
The Zografeion Lyceum is one of the remaining open Greek schools in Istanbul, in the Beyoğlu district and very close to Taksim Square, which is considered to be the heart of the city. The school, like all minority schools in Turkey, is a secular school. In the years that followed its opening, it developed into a particularly active school and has always had more than 250 pupils.
via Greek Students’ Magical City Tour in Istanbul | Greek Reporter Europe.
