“Fifteen soldiers have been killed in an attack carried out by the terror organisation PKK in south-eastern Turkey. It is absolutely clear that we must strongly condemn attacks of this type.
“The democratic reform process in Turkey is now gradually creating better conditions, also for those regions of the country that are dominated by Kurdish population groups, and it is these positive developments that the PKK wants to curb by means of terror.”
Carl Bildt on the terrorist attack in Turkey.
Russia expects the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan to meet again shortly after next week’s Azerbaijani presidential election and reach a framework peace agreement on Nagorno-Karabakh, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in a newspaper interview published on Tuesday.
He stressed the importance of a Nagorno-Karabakh settlement and the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations for Armenia’s security and economic development.
“There remain two or three unresolved issues which need to be agreed upon at the next meetings of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan,” Lavrov told the “Rossiiskaya Gazeta” daily. “Our understanding is that such meetings will take place shortly after the forthcoming [October 15] presidential elections in Azerbaijan.”
“As one of three mediators, we have a sense that a denouement is quite real,” he said, adding that the two other mediating powers, the United States and France, also see a “very real chance” of a resolution of the Karabakh conflict.
The mediators have been trying to get the conflicting parties to accept the basic principles of Karabakh peace that were formally put forward by them in November 2007. Senior French, Russian and U.S. diplomats co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group discussed the possibility of another Armenian-Azerbaijani summit during the most recent talks with the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers held in New York late last month.
Lavrov said the future of the so-called Lachin corridor, which provides for the shortest overland link between Armenia and Karabakh, is now the main stumbling block in the peace talks. He did not elaborate.
The Russian minister was interviewed by a “Rossiiskaya Gazeta” reporter late last week as he flew to Yerevan to meet with Armenia’s President Serzh Sarkisian and Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian. After the talks with Nalbandian he sounded cautiously optimistic about prospects for a breakthrough in the Karabakh peace process.
However, a top aide to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev, struck a cautious note as he commented on Lavrov’s upbeat statements in Yerevan. “Major issues have not been agreed upon,” Novruz Mammadov told the Azerbaijani Trend news agency.
According to Lavrov, Armenia should be keenly interested in a Karabakh settlement in the wake of the crisis in neighboring Georgia which he said exposed “the vulnerability of its position” and highlighted the importance of having an open border with Turkey. “Armenia has huge difficulties communicating with the outside world,” he said. “It is in the fundamental interests of the Armenian people to unblock this situation as soon as possible.
“It really has few geographic and political options. As soon as the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement becomes a fact, Turkey will be ready to help Armenia forge normal links with the outside world, naturally through the establishment of diplomatic relations between Ankara and Yerevan.”
The remarks ran counter to a widely held belief in the West that Moscow is disinterested in the normalization of Armenia’s relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey for fear of losing geopolitical leverage against Yerevan.
By Henry Samuel in Paris
Last Updated: 1:21AM BST 02 Oct 2008
In the diplomatic cable written by François Fitou, the deputy French ambassador, Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles is also quoted as saying that the coalition’s military presence is “part of the problem not the solution”.
In the cable, dated Sept 2 and published in the investigative and satirical weekly Le Canard Enchaîne, Sir Sherard is quoted as having said that “the current situation is bad. Security is worsening, but also corruption, and the current government has lost all credit.”
He is alleged to have gone on to say that “the presence, notably military, of the coalition is a part of the problem, not the solution.
“Foreign forces are assuring the survival of a regime, which, without them, would quickly crumble. In doing so, they are slowing down and complicating an eventual end to the crisis (incidentally, probably a dramatic one).”
France has just agreed to increase its deployment in Afghanistan despite public resistance, and send more drones and helicopters.
In other quotes from the coded cable, addressed to President Nicolas Sarkozy and Bernard Kouchner, the foreign minister, the British ambassador is cited as saying that sending extra French troops “would have perverse effects: it would single us out even more clearly as an occupying force and multiply the number of targets (for insurgents).”
He is quoted as saying that the only solution at present is to support the Americans “but we must tell them that we want to be part of a winning, not a losing strategy.”
According to the newspaper, Sir Sherard said that the best scenario was that “in five to ten years,” when British troops were no longer present on Afghan soil, the country would be “governed by an acceptable dictator”.
“This is the only realistic outcome, and we must prepare public opinion to accept it … In the meantime, the American presidential candidates must be dissuaded from getting further bogged down in Afghanistan. (Their) strategy is bound to fail,” he reportedly said.
However, a British embassy spokesman said the views were not the Ambassador’s.
“It is not for us to comment on something that is presented as a French telegram, but the views quoted are not an accurate representation of the Ambassador’s views.
“The UK, with international partners, is committed to working in support of the government of Afghanistan to deliver solutions to the challenges facing the country, through both civilian and military effort.
“The UK has always acknowledged that success in Afghanistan is a long-term objective, and requires a comprehensive approach to address security, political, social and economic development.
“The UK and the US are united in the Afghanistan strategy. We work closely with our US allies in all aspects of decision making and regularly review our approach.
The Foreign Office said yesterday that Britain had decided to withdraw the 60 children of diplomats based in neighbouring Pakistan in the wake of the bombing at the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad last month. A spokesman said that spouses would also be offered the opportunity to leave.
While the review was triggered by the terrorist incident, it reflects the growing instability of the country and reflected the broad views of diplomats. Officials said the ruling will be lifted as soon as conditions permit.
Speculation was mounting that one of the suspects in the hotel bombing, the leader of the Pakistani Taliban, had died of kidney failure. Baitullah Mehsud, who is in his mid-30s is also accused of being responsible for the assassination of the former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto, was known to have been unwell for months.
A doctor who has treated him insisted that Mehsud had a kidney problem but was still alive. But if the rumours prove to be true his death would prove a triumph in anti-terrorist efforts by Pakistan and the West.
Source: www.telegraph.co.uk, 02 Oct 2008
By Caroline Gammell
Last Updated: 11:33AM BST 05 Oct 2008
Brigadier Mark Carleton-Smith said the British public should not expect “a decisive military victory” and that he believed groups of insurgents would still be at large after troops left.
He said it was time to “lower our expectations” and focus on reducing the conflict to a level which could be managed by the Afghan army.
Brig Carleton-Smith, commander of 16 Air Assault Brigade which has just completed its second tour of Afghanistan, said talking to the Taliban could be an important part of that process.
He insisted his forces had “taken the sting out of the Taliban for 2008” as winter and the colder weather approached.
But he told a Sunday newspaper: “We’re not going to win this war. It’s about reducing it to a manageable level of insurgency that’s not a strategic threat and can be managed by the Afghan army.
“We may well leave with there still being a low but steady ebb of rural insurgency… I don’t think we should expect when we go, there won’t be roaming bands of armed men in this part of the world.
“That would be unrealistic.”
Brig Carleton-Smith said the aim was to move towards a non-violent means of resolving the conflict.
“We want to change the nature of the debate from one where disputes are settled through the barrel of a gun to one where it is done through negotiations,” he said.
“If the Taliban were prepared to sit on the other side of the table and talk about a political settlement, then that’s precisely the sort of progress that concludes insurgencies like this.”
“That shouldn’t make people uncomfortable.”
A Ministry of Defence spokesman defended the brigadier’s comments and said the aim was to provide a secure infrastructure for the Afghan National Police and Afghan National Army.
“We have always said there is no military solution in Afghanistan. Insurgencies are ultimately solved at the political level, not by military means alone,” the spokesman said.
“We fully support President Karzai’s efforts to bring disaffected Afghans into society’s mainstream with his proviso that they renounce violence and accept Afghanistan’s constitution.”
Source: www.telegraph.co.uk, 05 Oct 2008
By Alman Mir – Ismail
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Yet, in the aftermath of the conflict, Azerbaijan, Georgia’s neighbor and closest ally, finds itself in a unique position for an opportunity to advance relations with Russia. The ultimate prize would be the Kremlin’s support in the Karabakh conflict. There is no doubt in Baku, among both the public and politicians, that the key to the resolution of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict lies in Moscow, as Russia was and remains Armenia’s closest military, political, and economic ally. Despite Azerbaijan’s persistent efforts to please Moscow and secure the return of the occupied territories, no success has been achieved yet.
The current situation, however, presents a rare moment of opportunity for Baku to make Russia an offer it cannot refuse. The ingredients for the grand bargain have been piling up steadily over the past year. Early in the summer, Russian President Medvedev, during a trip to Baku, offered to buy all of Azerbaijan’s gas at the world market price. The Kremlin is obviously not interested in having an alternative gas exporter in its borders. The purchase of Azerbaijani gas would not only enable Moscow to remain the main energy provider to EU but would also help Gazprom fulfill its contractual obligations.
On the other hand, the negative image that Russia created during the Georgian war is prompting Kremlin strategists to seek more cordial and friendly relations with another South Caucasus country, Azerbaijan, in order to demonstrate to the rest of the world that Russia is not a threat and aggressor to the former Soviet republics and does not intend to restore the Soviet Empire. Thus, Azerbaijan, with its pro-Western integration plans, presents the only chance for Russia to do this. Armenia is already heavily dependant on Russia, and Moscow does not consider it necessary to “win over” Yerevan.
Gentler and more pragmatic relations with Azerbaijan would not only help Russia repair its image abroad but would also derail Azerbaijan’s pro-NATO and pro-EU course. It is no coincidence that President Medvedev called his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev a few weeks ago to discuss bilateral relations. The latter also traveled to Moscow to meet both Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin to advance the interests of both countries in the region.
Finally, speculation has arisen in Baku that Moscow is pushing Azerbaijan’s political leadership to open a transit corridor through its territory to Armenia. The Kremlin’s sole remaining partner in the South Caucasus is significantly suffering from the war in Georgia, as transport from Russia to Armenia remains clogged in the closed borders. Armenia also has closed borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey, thus putting its economy under a real threat. Under the grand bargain, Azerbaijan could play a transit role, allowing Russia to ship cargo through its territory to Armenia.
It seems that not only Russia understands the increased value of Azerbaijan. Geopolitical rivalry over this country has heated up in recent weeks, with U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney visiting Baku and making statements about the United States’ intention to remain an active player in the region. A look at the map of the South Caucasus shows that with Georgia falling out of the Russian orbit, Azerbaijan remains the last battlefield between the West and Russia.
The situation for the grand bargain seems ripe, especially considering the new dialogue between Turkey and Armenia and the general willingness among Armenian leaders to normalize relations with its neighbors. The traditional belief that Russia should do its best to preserve the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia in order to keep its influence over them is not working any more. Russia will always be able to exert pressure and influence over these countries, long after the conflict is resolved. The resolution of the conflict, however, will bring a number of dividends to Russia, including a safer periphery and effective prevention of Radical Islam emerging in the region.
Compromises on the issue of Karabakh and the restoration of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan would pave the way for a much firmer and more solid partnership between Moscow and Baku. Moscow can and should push Armenia for more compromises on this issue in order to achieve a long-lasting peace. Otherwise, Azerbaijan, losing its hope to gain support from Kremlin, will continue to drift away toward the West.
There are positive signs in the budding relationship between
Armenia and Turkey. But don’t expect too much too soon.
by Timothy Spence
30 September 2008
