Turkish Forum

Category: Romania

  • Analysis: Turkey helps pull the rug from under Nabucco

    Analysis: Turkey helps pull the rug from under Nabucco

    By Ferruh Demirmen, Ph.D.
    Houston, Texas

    Judging from the press reports, one would not know it, but Turkey, the presumed supporter of the Nabucco gas project, recently helped kill the project.

    It was not to be so. After all, the Nabucco project was designed not only to supply natural gas to the EU from the Caspian region and the Middle East, but also help Turkey meet its domestic needs. The intergovernmental agreement signed in Ankara amid media publicity in July 2009, followed by parliamentary seal of approval in March 2010, gave all the indications that Turkey would stand by the project.

    Turkey’s BOTAS was one of the 6 partners that developed the project. The Vienna-based NIC (Nabucco International Company) represented the consortium formed by the partners. The 3,900 km-long pipeline’s planned destination was Baumgarten in Austria.

    Not that the project was ideal for Turkey (). But compared to its rivals ITGI (Italy-Greece Interconnector) and TAP (Trans-Adriatic Pipeline), not to mention a host of “exotic” Black Sea options flagged by Azerbaijan, it was the most mature and most comprehensive gas pipeline project to connect Turkey and the EU to the supply sources to the east. Strategically it deserved Turkey’s support. It was the only project among its rivals that aimed to transport Azeri as well as non-Azeri gas. Turkmen gas was a high-priority objective.

    Surely, with its ambitious design capacity of 31 billion m3 (bcm)/year, Nabucco was under stress. What was holding the project from implementation was the lack of feed (throughput) gas. The feed gas problem caused delays in the project, and the capital costs soared (up to EUR 14-15 billion by most recent estimates). The Azeri Shah Deniz-II gas was identified as the initial start-up gas as from 2017-2018.

    But Azerbaijan, that owned the gas, and the Shah Deniz consortium that would share and produce it, were non-committal about supplying gas. That meant major headache for Nabucco. Turkmen gas input required the cooperation of Azerbaijan, and would be added to the gas stream at a later date.

    In the meantime, the rival projects ITGI and TAP emerged. Like Nabucco, these also counted on Shah Deniz-II gas for throughput. A winner-take-all pipeline contest was in the works.

    Still, Nabucco had a good fighting chance. On October 1, 2011, NIC submitted its proposal to the Shah Deniz consortium tabling transport terms. The rival projects ITGI and TAP did the same. A high-stakes waiting game would then start, during which the Shah Deniz consortium would pick the winner.

    The spoiler project

    All that changed when BP (British Petroleum), at the last minute before the October 1 deadline, came up with a new, “in-house” project: SEEP (South-East Europe Pipeline). It was a shrewd move, and immediately caught the attention of the Shah Deniz consortium – where BP is the operator and a major (25.5%) stake holder. The Azeri partner SOCAR, in particular, quickly warmed up to BP’s proposal.

    Instead of building a new pipeline across the Turkish territory, SEEP envisioned the use of BOTAS’ existing network (with upgrades) in Turkey and construction of new pipelines and their integration with existing interconnectors past Turkey. Azeri gas would be the feed gas. The destination would still be Austria, but the cost would be much less than that of Nabucco.

    Nabucco had come under threat.

    Behind the scenes

    Events behind the scenes further undermined Nabucco. On October 25 Ankara and Baku signed an intergovernmental agreement in Izmir in western Turkey. Details released to the press were sketchy, but one of the accords reached was to use initially BOTAS’ existing network in Turkey, and later build a new pipeline when needed, to ship Shah Deniz II gas to Turkey and the EU. Starting in 2017 or 2018, of the total 16 bcm gas to be produced annually from the Shah Deniz-II phase, Turkey would receive 6 bcm, and the rest 10 bcm would be shipped to the EU.

    Azerbaijan would be the direct seller of gas to the EU, with Turkey being a mere bridge or transit route.

    No mention was made of Nabucco, ITGI, TAP, or SEEP in the press release, but the footprints of SEEP were unmistakable.

    Demise of Nabucco

    Still worse news followed. On November 17, during the Third Black Sea Energy and Economic Forum held in Istanbul, SOCAR chief Rovnag Abdullayev announced that a new gas pipeline, which he named “Trans-Anatolia,” would be built in Turkey from east to west under the leadership of SOCAR. The new pipeline would deliver Shah Deniz II gas to Turkey and Europe.

    Azerbaijan and Turkey had already started working on the pipeline project, he said, and others could possibly join later. The planned capacity was at least 16 bcm/year –large enough to absorb all future Azeri exports after depletion of Shah Deniz II.

    While not stated so, the announcement made Nabucco effectively redundant. The announcement was an offtake from the Izmir agreement, and signaled a surprising, 180-degree turn on the part of Turkey on Nabucco.

    Turkey’s energy minister Yildiz Taner tried to put the best face in the press by claiming that Trans-Anatolian would “supplement” Nabucco, while the NIC chief Reinhard Mitschek expressed his “confidence” in Nabucco.

    More recently SOCAR’s Abdullayev maintained that Nabucco was still “in the race,” and NIC started the pre-qualification process for procurement contractors.

    For all these business-as-usual pronouncements, however, there was little doubt that Nabucco had received a fatal blow. If Trans-Anatolia, dedicated to Shah Deniz II gas, is built, Nabucco will lose its start-up gas, and with it the justification for a new infrastructure across Turkey.

    Without synergy from the Azeri gas, a full-fledged Nabucco project dedicated solely to Turkmen gas will also have a virtually zero chance of implementation.

    Nabucco, in its present form, was dead. (See also . A much-modified, “truncated” version of Nabucco, starting at the Turkey-Bulgaria border, may well emerge, however.

    Conclusion

    With Nabucco frozen in its tracks, the geopolitics of energy in Turkey and its neighborhood has changed dramatically ). What is surprising is that Turkey assisted in undermining a project that it had long supported. It was a project that encompassed both Azeri and Turkmen gas. To reduce its dependence on Russia for its gas exports, Turkmenistan has been eager to ship its gas to the West.

    Azerbaijan, apparently viewing Turkmen gas exports to the West a threat to its own gas exports, has been reluctant to cooperate with Ashgabat on this issue.

    Turkey acceded to the aspirations of the Azeri brethren, while ignoring those of the Turkmen brethren. Over the past year, as the EU delegates approached repeatedly Ashgabat for Turkmen gas (vis-à-vis a TCGP or Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline), Turkey chose to stay on the sidelines. This was a strategic mistake.

    Both Baku and Ashgabat could benefit from a synergy between the Azeri and Turkmen gaz exports, and Turkey could use gas from both sources to enhance its energy security. Being pro-active on TGCP and nudging Azerbaijan in that direction would have been a wise move for Turkey. On balance, there is little doubt that on the gas issue Azerbaijan has played its cards well – perhaps too well!

    ferruh@demirmen.com

  • Turkish cultural bridges to Romania grow with TV series

    Turkish cultural bridges to Romania grow with TV series

    EMIKO JOZUKA
    ISTANBUL – Hürriyet Daily News
    Silvana Rachieru, the director of the Romanian Cultural Institute, became interested in Turkish culture during her university years. Over the last five years, she has witnessed the growing interest in Romanian culture in Turkey and vice versa, a phenomenon that has been aided by the popularity of Turkish soaps in Romania

    Romania has retained strong commercial and diplomatic ties with Turkey since the Balkan gained independence in 1878, yet it comes as a surprise to learn of the increasing popularity of Turkish soap operas aired on Romanian TV. Providing a portal into the Turkish way of life and language, such soaps have led to a gradual increase in the number of tourists visiting the country.

    “Turkish series are very popular in Romania. [Private channel] Kanal D has three or four Turkish series. It was interesting to see the Romanians’ reactions – they have started to learn a few words in Turkish and to learn about the customs,” Silvana Rachieru, the director of the Romanian Cultural Institute in Turkey, recently told the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review.

    Noting that channels had previously been dominated by Latin American soaps, Rachieru said she had been pleasantly surprised to be met with cries of “merhaba” (hello) and “nasılsın” (how are you?) by mothers of friends when traveling back to visit her homeland.

    Growing interest in Romania

    The cultural exchange provided by the Turkish TV series, however, is a two-way street, as many of the 30,000 Turks who have lived in Romania choose to keep up with cultural events related to Romania after they return to Turkey, according to Rachieru.

    “The Romanian Cultural Institute has a structure similar to [Germany’s] Goethe Institute and [Spain’s] Cervantes [Institute] so we organize regular events promoting Romanian culture. For example, we bring Romanian artists to Turkish cities and towns. We try to cover every aspect of culture, from the visual arts to the music,” she said.

    Referring to a recent event, Rachieru painted a colorful picture of a visiting brass band from Romania who had performed in different clubs and participated in workshops with Roma children from a primary school in the Sultanahmet area of Istanbul.

    “The children started very recently but can already play different instruments; they are children from the Roma community so they also have a [natural] talent,” Rachieru said.

    With the participation of a Romanian theater company in the International Black Sea Theater Festival and the institute’s involvement with the Documentary Festival Documentarist, the institute’s schedule is a cultural hive.

    “This year the Istanbul documentary festival will screen five Romanian documentaries and have two directors attending, one of whom will give a master class,” the director said.

    As well as becoming involved in the Istanbul cultural scene, Rachieru also spoke of how the institute encourages Turks to involve themselves directly with Romanian culture.

    “We have a system of sending specialists from Turkey to Romania to follow the main cultural events and we have done this already with theater and book fairs. For example, at the beginning of June, a group of six film specialists from Turkey will go to Romania to follow the main Romanian film festival,” Rachieru said.

    “There are many Turks living or doing business in Romania; they already have an interest in the culture there and want to see what is happening,” she said.

    Speaking of the growing interest in the Romanian language among Turks, Rachieru said the institute next plans to open up a language center. As well as bringing over an array of musical and cinematic talent to Turkey, Rachieru said the institute was attempting to build up a team of translators who would translate Romanian literature from Romanian to Turkish.

    Life ‘à la Turca’

    Rachieru became interested in Turkish culture during her university years, specializing in Ottoman and Romanian relations for her history doctorate, and holds a permanent position as a history professor in the University of Bucharest. Although Rachieru said life in Istanbul was tough compared to Bucharest – given that the Romanian capital is nine times smaller than Turkey’s largest city – she said she fell instantly in love with the metropolis and felt at home.

    “Being a historian, I enjoy every corner of the city and I am trying to discover as much as possible. It is a tough city to live in but at the same time people are very friendly here and I don’t feel like a foreigner, speaking the language opens different doors,” she said.

    Speaking about the recent boom in Turkish cinema, she said she was very impressed by the vast scope of films being produced within the country. Noting the success of Çağan Irmak’s 2008 love story, “Issiz Adam” (Alone), which drew queues outside cinema halls, Rachieru pointed to the increasing number of young directors preoccupied by the fabric of daily life and those who created socially committed projects.

    “To an extent, I see a parallel between Romanian cinema and Turkish cinema because both of them grew and were successful in 1970s but then went downhill because of the economic crisis. Now both are growing again and I have really enjoyed the recent developments,” she said.

    While loving her life “à la Turca,” Rachieru pointed out one difference, which had caught her eye, the way in which gender relations were perceived.

    “Being a young independent working woman coming to Istanbul, sometimes you have to face stereotypes and be treated as somebody’s wife. You have to convince the audience that you are a professional and know what you are talking about. I found this a little disturbing at the beginning,” she said.

    Commenting that she had been much more used to seeing mixed groups of men, women and boys and girls together, she spoke of the more noticeable separation of genders yet accepted that acclimatizing oneself to such differences came with the experience of a culture.

    “We have to understand that there are some rules and you have to understand they are part of the culture,” Rachieru said.

  • While you were watching Egypt, Balkans are like a bomb ready to explode

    While you were watching Egypt, Balkans are like a bomb ready to explode

    SHARP-EYED observers have noted that some of the protestors that brought down Egypt’s president used the clenched-fist logo of  Otpor, the well-organised, foreign-financed civic resistance movement that helped topple Slobodan Milosevic in 2000. Parts of the Serbian press, notes Florian Bieber, an academic who works on Balkan affairs, have claimed that former Otpor activists helped train some of the opposition groups.

    balkans

    With the world’s attention on the Arab world, the political instability gripping much of the western Balkans has largely been ignored. Yet so serious is the unrest here—including mass demonstrations in Belgrade, Tirana and Skopje—that one diplomat told me his country’s foreign ministry had asked him if he thought that Egypt-style revolution might sweep northwards into the Balkans. (His answer was an emphatic “no”.) Here is a round-up of recent developments:

    Kosovo held an election on December 12th, but still has no government. Following allegations of “industrial-scale” fraud, re-runs had to be held. Until an apparent breakthrough yesterday, the country’s politicians had been unable to secure the basic outlines of a deal which would permit the formation of a government. Now, however, a faction within the Democratic Party of Kosovo of Hashim Thaci, the acting prime minister, has been forced to drop its insistence that its man, Jakup Krasniqi, the acting president, be given the job formally.

    Behgjet Pacolli, a tycoon, now looks set to become president. In exchange his party, the New Kosovo Alliance, will enter into coalition with Mr Thaci. Mr Pacolli is married to a Russian, which, given Moscow’s refusal to recognise Kosovo’s independence, leaves some Kosovars appalled.

    Two years after independence, Mr Thaci has never been so weak politically. He has been weakened by a row with Fatmir Limaj, the outgoing minister of transport, who enjoys much support in the party. Internationally, his standing has been shredded by a recent Council of Europe report making all sorts of lurid allegations against him. EULEX, the EU’s police mission in Kosovo, is now investigating. Partly as a consequence Kosovo’s European integration process has failed to get off the ground. Five of the EU’s 27 members do not recognise Kosovo.

    The situation in Macedonia is little better. Nikola Gruevski, the prime minister, has set off for Washington seeking support for his attempts to speed EU and NATO integration, but he may get his ear chewed off when he arrives. Solving the almost 20-year-old name dispute with Greece appears less of a priority in Skopje than ever. Construction of a giant  plinth that will support a statue of Alexander the Great is proceeding briskly, guaranteeing fresh outrage in Greece.

    The Social Democratic opposition has pulled out of parliament, and Macedonia is gripped by the saga of A1 Television, whose bank accounts have been frozen for a second time by the courts. Mr Gruevski’s opponents say that the government is trying to muzzle the last bastion of free speech in the country. Nonsense, claim government supporters. The courts are simply clamping down on tax evasion. In fact, the two arguments do not contradict each other. The smart money is on an early election in June.

    Meanwhile a small group of Albanians and Macedonians fought a pitched battle in Skopje castle on February 13th, where the government has begun building what it says is a museum, in the shape of a church. The problem is that the castle is in an Albanian, and hence Muslim, part of town. When the Albanians protested, saying that the structure was being built over an ancient Illyrian site,  Pasko Kuzman, the chief archaeologist, said construction would stop. But builders went in at night to continue their work, which led the Albanians to try and dismantle the structure. And so on, and so on.

    Over in Albania the prime minister, Sali Berisha, has accused the opposition of staging a coup, following a demonstration on January 21st that went horribly wrong when Republican Guards allegedly fired on opposition supporters, killing four. The demonstration sprang from charges by the opposition, led by Edi Rama, the Socialist mayor of Tirana, that Mr Berisha was returned to power in June 2009 by fraudulent elections. Unlike Macedonia, Albania is a member of NATO, but its EU integration path has effectively stalled.*

    The Serbian government has been holed and is taking on water—but has not sunk yet. Mladjan Dinkic, head of the G17 Plus party and Serbia’s deputy prime minister, had been openly criticising his governmental colleagues from President Boris Tadic’s Democratic Party. On February 14th Mirko Cvetkovic, the prime minister, moved to sack him. Mr Dinkic resigned today but stopped short of pulling his party out of the government.

    How long the Serbian government can limp on like this is anyone’s guess. Tomislav Nikolic, leader of the opposition Serbian Progressive Party, has said that unless new elections are called before April 5th he will lead more protests in Belgrade. Watch this space.

    Last but not least, Bosnia and Hercegovina. Elections there were held on October 3rd, but there is still no government at state level. No surprise there. Progress on anything, let alone EU integration, has been stalled in Bosnia since 2006 in the wake of the failure of the so-called “April Package” of constitutional reforms. Al Jazeera recently announced plans for a Balkans channel, based in Sarajevo and broadcasting in what it delicately calls “the regional language”. Given the station’s role as the cheerleader of revolt in Tunisia and Egypt, one can understand diplomats’ concerns.

    Global Agenda

  • Maritime cooperation protocol between Romania and Turkey

    Maritime cooperation protocol between Romania and Turkey

    Port

    The bilateral cooperation between Romania and Turkey can be reinforced by the cooperation protocol between the National Company of Administration of Maritime Ports in Constanta (south-eastern Romania) and the Ro-Ro Pendik Port in Turkey, Minister of Transports and Infrastructure Anca Boagiu said on Thursday.

    The bilateral cooperation between Romania and Turkey can be reinforced by the cooperation protocol between the National Company of Administration of Maritime Ports in Constanta (south-eastern Romania) and the Ro-Ro Pendik Port in Turkey, Minister of Transports and Infrastructure Anca Boagiu said on Thursday.

    “Signing this protocol paves the way for carrying passengers and merchandise between Romania and Turkey. The incentives made available by both parties lead to the increase in the sea transit. Therefore, thanks to this protocol signed on Thursday in Bucharest, a major company ranking seven in the world and four in the Black Sea region will operate passenger lines between the two ports. The Turkish ports will be a major starting point for the Romanian merchandise towards the Mediterranean Sea,” Anca Boagiu added.

    According to Minister of Transports and Communications in the Republic of Turkey Binali Yildirim, the field of transports may be the most important in developing the economic cooperation between Romania and Turkey.

    Romania has currently signed similar cooperation protocols with Spain, Kazakhstan, Slovenia. The Ministry is in talks with Rotterdam Port to sign a similar protocol.

    EMG

  • Standoff at Tahrir Sq.

    Standoff at Tahrir Sq.

    by Kutluk Ozguven

    29 January 2011

    The rules of the game have been simple: Police trumps protesters. Masses trump police. Army trumps masses. If the army stands back, you have a revolution (Iran 1979, Romania 1989, Tunisia 2011), if not, then bloodshed (Hungary 1956, China 1989, Algeria 1992). I don’t recall any popular uprising successful over a fully functioning armed force determined to go all the way. That is why armed forces are always considered as backbones of corrupt dictatorships.

    This weekend we shall see if the Egyptian armed forces, which the latest Wikileaks leak as US believes it to be unhappy, at least in the mid-ranking officers, but probably higher, will open fire to stop the masses or the masses will blink, or it will give way to the people. Egyptian army is a conscript army and there is no part of the Egyptian society that may be counted on apart from the westernised elites, whose children do not operate tanks during military service. The news is that the Egyptian army are already mobilised into urban areas and taken control of strategic points.

    Egyptians I came to know during a series of visits for international projects were a very kind people, members of a polite and civilised nation, well known among the other Arabs with their humour and taking things lightly. This nation of gentle farmers has been easy to manage by foreign soldiers (the Hyksos, Ptolemeans, the Mamluke, Ali Pasha troops) or domestic warlords, perhaps exact opposite of Chechens or Afghans. They are patient, soft-spoken, happy in the face of any event, and cultured. In short, any megalomaniac tyrant’s dream population.

    They have gone through a westernisation process predating Turkey, and a secularisation process of 50 years under socialist dictatorship. Save occasional and sensational terror incidents, there is no history of popular uprising or even any active political formation, except for the elitist Muslim Brotherhood, structured in 30s as a Muslim answer to Freemasonry, who wouldn’t even entertain the idea of going on the streets with sweaty youngsters. Americans and Israelis are all over the country, to the degree that five star Cairo hotels put on Hebrew-language TV channels for their guests from their northeastern neighbours. It has highest number of Internet access in the region with 20 million users and more advanced in some software technologies than, say, Turkey.

    Therefore, one wouldn’t expect a popular uprising overthrowing one of the most entrenched dictators of the world. Most well-informed experts, political commentators or social analysts certainly did not expect that the events would have gone out of control to this degree where it is becoming more and more unlikely that Mubarak will survive. When he unplugged the Internet less than a day ago, I recalled another ridiculous caricature, Alan Rickman’s Sheriff of Nottingham cancelling Christmas. He could have blocked social networks and slowed down the e-mail, but that would be too sophisticated to epitomise this wily little people who see it their birth right to enslave tens of millions of human beings. Which explains the situation better than any verbose expertise: it is the tyranny of stupid, primitive, incompetent minds over masses much more sophisticated and much deeper than them.

    When one sees all these Middle Eastern or Central Asian rulers and their small social segments whom they depend upon to man their security forces or financial institutions, one cannot help but be only deaf to any economic analysis. Despotism is always a disaster for economy because meritocracy is not allowed and accountability does not exist. The small clique of rulers milks the real productive people and eventually kills their productivity long before they would expire naturally. This leaves society weak and inefficient. If we add to the two factors the global financial system, which get the lion’s share of the bounty and only leaving crumbs to the visible rulers, it is obvious that the dictatorship is not a long term stable solution. Either the nation is annihilated from within or without, or it throws its rider. The last military period in Turkey, 1997-2002, is a good accelerated example to despotic cronyism, when the rampant economy of 1997 was brought to bankruptcy in four winters. Imagine that being practiced 30 years or 50 years.

    It is true that the 2011 Domino events stem from people wanting to get rid of the despotic cronyism, with them seeing that it is no more to mind one’s own business anymore as there is no business being left. And this is why analysts keep calling them secular uprisings, emphasizing the difference between Iran, Algeria, Hama or others. But this distinction comes out of their own mental compartmentalisation rather than the field. There is no separation between three elements that are in force here: people’s dignity, economic development and return to Islam. In the middle-east, or any once-have-been Islamic nation, the three are inseparable.

    Economic development is impossible without a level playing field and risk taking, bold, free, entrepreneurial players and accountable refereeing. That is impossible without popular social consent and social contract without privileged classes, aristocracies and caste systems. Perhaps in Hindu society, or in Confucian society. But not where Islam had been the source of social order with its egalitarian principles, holistic justice concept and personal freedoms. Once the verses of the Quran are practiced at some point by any society, it can never have another long-term working social system. That is why in any free election in the Middle East at any given time, Muslim-leaning parties have always won without exceptions. Therefore however secular the protests might have been, if there will be political freedom, reversal of de-Islamisation will be part of it.

    This is why many in the Middle East look towards the Turkish experiment. Without oil and natural sources, and to confess, with little ingenuity, by simply doing things as they should be done, Turkey turned from the military-dominated status to a richer, functional democracy managed by Muslims.

    The Tunisians, Jordanians, Algerians, Yemenis and Egyptians want this, no more. The talk of Turkey without oil is doing well with a free society, with secularised and religious people coexisting under a religious president, with none of the pretentious extravaganza is the greatest fairy tale to Arab ears. A fantastic dream which had been once ruled out as absurd. They just want the same. But when they get it, as they will, another fairy tale that was once ruled as absurd, will inevitably roll on: the cooperation and eventual unity of these independent states.

    If the troops on the Tahrir Square open fire, the process will only be delayed. But not stopped.

  • ‘Istanbul in Children’s Eyes’ in Romania, Serbia

    ‘Istanbul in Children’s Eyes’ in Romania, Serbia

    ISTANBUL – Hürriyet Daily News

    The project will feature 130 pieces of artwork by children from 10 countries.
    The project will feature 130 pieces of artwork by children from 10 countries.

    The “Istanbul in Children’s Eyes” project is set to open exhibitions in Romania and Serbia featuring more then 130 artworks about the city made by children from 10 countries.

    The project depicts Istanbul through the eyes of children via art. Within the scope of this project, children living in Istanbul got together with children from neighboring countries to depict the city altogether with looks from insiders and outsiders.

    The project aimed at gathering children from 10 countries for them to make art. The artworks produced by children were exhibited in four districts of Istanbul. Now they are going to be exhibited in Romania and Serbia.

    Residents of those areas will actively participate in this project. Children, like in any other domain, will be producers and consumers of art in the future.

    It will contribute to them immensely as they live and work together with their peers in other countries and this process will help improve dialogue with neighboring countries.

    The exhibition in Romania will take place between Nov. 13 and 18 at Asociatia Artistilor Plastici Targu-Mures, and the exhibition in Serbia will be at the Children’s Cultural Center in Belgrade between Nov. 20 and 26.

    Both exhibitions will feature more than 130 artworks made by children from 10 countries. There will be workshops during the exhibition in Serbia where Serbian children will make painting studies.

    The project was carried out by the Istanbul 2010 European Capital of Culture Agency’s Visual Arts Directorate.