Category: EU Members

European Council decided to open accession negotiations with Turkey on 17 Dec. 2004

  • THE GALLIPOLI – Straits of Disaster

    THE GALLIPOLI – Straits of Disaster

    How a British gambit in World War I turned into a battlefield fiasco

    By ROBERT MESSENGER

    On Feb. 19, 1915, ­British warships attempted to force the heavy Turkish defenses of the ­Dardanelles, the entrance to the straits in northern Turkey that are the key link between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. The British struck in search of an indirect approach to victory. World War I was in stalemate, the two sides locked into trench warfare in northern France. The hope was that a battle fleet appearing off ­Istanbul would compel ­Turkey’s capitulation, secure a supply route to hard-pressed Russia, and inspire the Balkan states to join the Allied war effort and eventually to attack Austro-Hungary, thereby ­pressuring Germany.

    The British government gave much consideration to the eventual division of the Ottoman lands once the straits were captured but very little to how the operation might ­actually be executed. The ­amateurish preparation and the resulting fiasco are ­recounted with sharp, taut precision in “Gallipoli: The End of the Myth,” Robin Prior’s near-definitive analysis of the campaign.

    View Full Image

    PT AL667 BRLede D 20090522165403 Getty Images

    British troops advance at Gallipoli, Aug. 6, 1915.

    PT AL667 BRLede G 20090522165403

    The assumption that Britain would simply sweep to victory over second-rate Turkey was just the first of many errors of judgment. At each stumble, when a logical examination of the campaign would have had only one possible conclusion-withdrawal-Britain’s leaders doubled down, eventually committing a half-million troops to the Gallipoli ­Peninsula in a sequence of bloody landings and operations.

    The initial landing at Cape Helles set the tone for the eight months of fighting: a landing that was supposed to be only lightly opposed turned into an abattoir. A captain in one of the first regiments to land wrote in his diary: “Off we went the men cheering and dashed ashore with Z Company. We got it like anything, man after man behind me was shot down but they never wavered. Lieut. Watts who was wounded in five places and lying on the gangway cheered the men with cries of ‘follow the captain.’ Captain French of the Dublins told me afterwards that he counted the first 48 men to follow me, and they all fell.”

    By the time all the Allied troops were finally evacuated on Jan. 9, 1916, they had suffered 130,000 battlefield casualties, with probably twice that number invalided because of diseases such as dysentery and typhoid. For an attack conceived as a way of reducing the carnage in northern France, it doubly failed.

    The historians took to the fields of Gallipoli almost the moment the soldiers left them. The poet and essayist John Masefield had piloted a naval ambulance during the campaign, and his “Gallipoli”-which originated as a series of lectures for the American market-became a best seller in 1916. Masefield romanticized the slaughter, drawing parallels between the khaki-clad troops and the epic heroes who fought on the Asiatic coast of the Dardanelles, before a city called Troy.

    Later in 1916 came C.E.W. Bean’s “Anzac Book,” an anthology of poems, stories and drawings by the soldiers of the Australia and New Zealand Army Corps (ANZAC)-“Practically every word in it was written and every line drawn beneath the shelter of a waterproof sheet or of a roof of sandbags.” Bean, who had won a lottery to be the official Australian newspaperman with ANZAC, would become a chief mythmaker of the campaign. Appointed official historian of Australia’s experience in World War I, he wrote six of the 14 volumes whose publication he would oversee, including the first two volumes, on Gallipoli.

    OB DS709 Gallip CV 20090522165845

    Bean propounded the idea that the colonial troops were stoic and tough and led to the slaughter by bumbling, effete Brits. He ended his history with the declaration that “it was on the 25th of April, 1915, that the consciousness of Australian nationhood was born.” April 25, the date of the first landings at Gallipoli, became Australia’s national day of ­remembrance, and the legend of Ginger Mick, shipped across the world to be slaughtered on Turkish beaches because of old men’s folly, is still widely known.

    The biggest bumbler in ­popular perception was Winston Churchill. As First Lord of the Admiralty, he was the ­father of the Dardanelles ­attack and bore the brunt of the blame. The bloody disaster shattered his glittering political career. For close to a decade his speeches were interrupted by cries of “What about Gallipoli?”

    In 1922, Churchill began a memoir to defend his wartime decisions. (That the book evolved into a six-volume ­general history of World War I called “The World Crisis” is all too indicative of the man.) The defense of the Gallipoli campaign is at the heart of the narrative. It is a sequence of almosts and if onlys.

    Churchill presents the strategic conception in the rosiest of hues, and the execution, especially the performance of Britain’s minister for war, Herbert Kitchener, in the grayest. “The World Crisis” depicts Gallipoli as a noble failure, an effort that would have saved innumerable lives on the Western Front had it been undertaken with tactical competence.

    For Churchill, it was “a long chain of missed chances,” missed because the government delayed the attacks repeatedly-allowing defensive buildups by the Turks at all the critical points-and failed to respond to setbacks promptly, with sufficient troops and ammunition. “It was not through want of judgment that they failed, but through want of will-power,” Churchill wrote. “In such times the kingdom of heaven can only be taken by storm.” (He also called the government’s failure to persevere a “crime.”) Churchill’s interpretation was seconded a few years later by the British official history of the campaign. Its author, Cecil Aspinall Oglander, had been a senior staff officer during the fighting and had a strong desire to ­defend conduct he held much responsibility for.

    “The Royal Navy had ruled supreme since Trafalgar. In the early years of the twentieth century its position had been tested by the rapid growth of the German fleet. But at the outbreak of war the Royal Navy was still dominant. ” Read an excerpt from ‘Gallipoli: The End of the Myth’

    Interest revived a generation later with Alan Moorehead’s 1956 best seller, “Gallipoli.” A popular war correspondent, Moorehead made a gripping narrative of the fighting. He emphasized “turning points” squandered by the local commanders and defended the Churchillian line that Gallipoli could have shortened the war by years. Moorehead relied on already published accounts. His book was “superb literature,” as Robert Rhodes James put it, “but doubtful history.” Disagreement with Moorehead’s conclusions-especially his acceptance of the claim that the campaign could have affected the outcome of the war against Germany-sent Rhodes James into the archives, and his “Gallipoli” (1965) was the first scholarly evaluation of the campaign.

    He demonstrated that ­Gallipoli’s “errors in execution stemmed directly from the fundamental fallacies in the original conception.” It was a devastating appraisal of the self-justifying writings that had dominated the literature for nearly half a century. While Rhodes James noted Churchill’s mistakes, he also stressed Churchill’s essential good faith in pursuing the Gallipoli ­operation and showed that blame should have been apportioned throughout the highest quarters of the British government. In his new history, Robin Prior takes this line to its reasoned end.

    For any operation to have succeeded at capturing the Dardanelles and allowing free access to the Black Sea, Mr. Prior argues, would have required immense operational preparations and the element of surprise. The one was always likely to negate the other-as was repeatedly proved on numerous fronts between 1914 and 1918. Mr. Prior shows that, from the moment of its consideration by the British war cabinet, the Gallipoli operation was managed in a lackadaisical manner by leaders uninterested in the realities of modern war. Where Churchill and Aspinall in their histories passed the buck down the chain of command, blaming local commanders for failing to achieve tactical successes during the battles on the Gallipoli peninsula, Mr. Prior kicks it up, right to the top of Prime Minister H.H. Asquith’s government.

    Details

    Gallipoli
    By Robin Prior
    Yale, 288 pages, $45

    Step-by-step, Mr. Prior ­examines the campaign and demolishes each layer of myth. The Straits would not, in fact, have fallen to the British navy if only the admirals had acted with more resolve, he shows, because the admirals had no ability to deal with the Turkish minefields, even if they had miraculously managed to put the Turkish guns out of action. The landings could not have secured a passage into the Black Sea, we learn, because the terrain of the peninsula was a sequence of endlessly defensible ridges that would have required the whole of the British army to seize. Far from Turkey’s collapsing if the Allies had seized the Dardanelles, Turkey could simply have fought on, Mr. Prior says. Istanbul had adequate defenses against naval attack, and it is impossible to imagine the British bombarding a city full of civilians in hopes of encouraging a change of government. And Mr. Prior convincingly argues that the battles of Sari Bair and Suvla Bay did not, as so many historians have claimed, nearly salvage the British effort. In neither case were the objectives of decisive value; even if they had been, the British lacked the reserves with which to exploit success.

    What becomes clear, too, is the absurdity of the belief that warring at Gallipoli could affect the ability of the Germans to war in northern France. “Despite the bravery of the troops who fought there, the campaign was fought in vain,” Mr. Prior concludes. “It did not shorten the war by a single day, nor in reality did it ever offer that prospect. . . . The downfall of Turkey was of no relevance to the deadly contest being played out of the Western Front.”

    The battle for the soul of Gallipoli has raged on too long. “Gallipoli: The End of the Myth” is a decisive end to ­debate. It may not be the very last word, as Mr. Prior himself is involved in a long-term ­project to discover what the Ottoman archives hold. But it is military history of the ­highest order.

    -Mr. Messenger is a senior editor at the Weekly Standard.

  • Turkish accession adds spark to French election

    Turkish accession adds spark to French election

    By Ben Hall in Paris

    ft1France’s political parties clashed this week over the question of Turkish membership of the European Union, providing a polemical spark to an otherwise lacklustre European parliament election campaign.

    Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, was accused by his opponents of lying to voters by campaigning against Turkey joining the block even though he allowed negotiations on its accession to enter a new phase during France’s presidency of the EU last year.

    Mr Sarkozy’s governing centre-right UMP party has made Turkey a theme of its campaign to the point of ensuring that its leading candidates issue formal -declarations promising not to let Turkey in.

    In a speech on Europe this month, Mr Sarkozy made much of his well-established opposition to Turkey’s membership saying the country did not have the “vocation” to join.

    Instead, he called for a “privileged partnership”, the same relationship he espouses for Russia, which is not even a candidate.

    Benoît Hamon, spokesman for the opposition Socialist party which supports Turkish accession, accused Mr Sarkozy of “lying” to the public because the president had “systematically given his backing to the pursuit of the negotiation process”.

    Two new “chapters”, or policy areas, that form part of Turkey’s accession process entry application were opened up to negotiation during the French EU -presidency.

    Paris has allowed the negotiation process to continue, thereby avoiding a direct confrontation with Ankara and supporters of Turkish membership within the EU, but is against opening up chapters which it judges only relevant to full membership, such as the question of monetary union.

    Philippe de Villiers, a -conservative eurosceptic, pointed out that Mr Sarkozy had also ensured that a requirement for a French referendum on all new EU entrants was dropped in last year’s reform of the constitution, removing a potential French obstacle to eventual Turkish membership.

    The row over Turkey has injected an element of -interest into a low profile campaign in which the main parties seem reluctant to engage in confrontation.

    The UMP does not want the campaign to turn into a referendum on Mr Sarkozy’s handling of the economic crisis while the Socialists, under the new leadership of Martine Aubry, are hesitant about investing themselves fully in a battle they appear destined to lose. Recent opinion polls put the UMP on 28 per cent and the Socialists on 22 per cent.

    Mr Sarkozy’s electioneering on the Turkish question is carefully calculated. With voters preoccupied with the economy, turnout is expected to fall well below 43 per cent, the rate at the last elections in 2004.

    The UMP needs to mobilise its core voters while wooing those tempted to vote for eurosceptic and far-right candidates who together could win 12 per cent, polls suggest.

  • BNP and Greek Connection Unleashed

    BNP and Greek Connection Unleashed

    THIS chilling picture shows BNP deputy leader Simon Darby being given a NAZI SALUTE at a fascist rally.

     

    Three extremists flashed the banned Hitler-style sign to the British far-right boss outside the event in Italy.

     

    Our exclusive snap fuels fears of danger ahead as the British National Party gains popularity in the recession.

     

    Darby, leading a drive for seats at the European Parliament elections in June, was following Stratos Karanikolau, from the Greek nationalist Proti Grammi (Front Line) party.

    They were joined by MEPs Roberto Fiore, a convicted terrorist, and Holocaust denier Bruno Gollnisch at the 400-strong meeting in Milan.

     

    Last night Labour MP Jon Cruddas said: “This shows the BNP are a gang of thugs parading as politicians.”

     

    bnp-greek-2

    POLITICAL LINE-UP: Gollnisch, Fiore, Karanikolau and Darby

    News Of the World

  • Italy and Turkey: A strategic alliance

    Italy and Turkey: A strategic alliance

    An article by Hon. Ignazio La Russa, Italian Minister of Defence

    itaturkThe friendship and the solid alliance between Italy and Turkey have deep roots. The Mediterranean is definitely one of the elements which bring our two countries nearer. It makes our peoples, cultures and politics so similar to each other. For decades, as members of the Atlantic Alliance, Turkey and Italy always shared the burdens and the risks linked to the need to keep a stable and fair international order.

    In the Balkans, in Lebanon, in the Middle East, in Afghanistan, the Armed Forces of our two countries work side by side, relieving each other in the hardest tasks, to defend a precious and indivisible good: international security.

    This common action marks not only the identity of our interests, but first and foremost the values that we share. Because our countries believe in peace, abroad and at home.

    Our countries are equally and hardly struggling to consolidate an international order based on the principle of a fair and efficient multilateralism.

    It must be fair, because all communities and all identities must be equally represented and capable to make their voices heard.

    It must be efficient and able to give an answer to collective needs, avoiding that single vetoes could block the whole international community.

    Together we fight to defeat terrorism, which threatens our nations and the stability of our democratic systems.

    Italy and Turkey share a common vision and a common action strategy. The deep friendship between our countries which has been reaffirmed in the first Intergovernmental Summit held in ?zmir in November 2008, is not the final result of our relations but the point of departure for further joint actions in diplomacy, economy, culture and also to military operations aimed at the maintaining of peace.

    At the beginning of 2009, Turkey took over Italy?s non-permanent membership under the Security Council of the UN. After two years of permanence in the Council, Italy can now fully rely on the action the Turkish government will take to affirm once again the same values and principles which were the basis of Italian action.

    Italy supports Turkey’s aspirations in its path towards the European Union. The EU membership will be the final step of a difficult process which is anyway coherent with the ambitions and capabilities of Turkey.

    Turkey may give a new decisive impetus to the action of the EU, particularly in areas where Turkey has strong and deep cultural and historical ties, such as Eastern Mediterranean, Caucasus and Central Asia.

    I deem it is important to stress, last but not least, the extraordinary importance of Turkey for energy security not only for Italy, but for Europe as a whole. Because of its strategic position and above all for its stabilizing functions, Turkey is the strategic partner for all energy resources coming from the Caspian Region and “later on” the Persian Gulf.

    Within this close cooperation framework between Italy and Turkey, we must underline the important role played by the cooperation in weapon systems production.

    In both our countries defense industry plays a crucial role due to its valuable high technology features. It also works as an “innovation engine” for the entire production system, thanks to spin-offs linked to the high investments in R&D, typical of the defense industry.

    In Italy defense industry employs 51.000 workers, a high percentage of which is composed by highly qualified people, particularly in engineering and IT (information technology). As far as turnover of the defense industry is concerned, it accounts for the 1% of the total Italian GNP. Furthermore, our defense industry is one of the most dynamic and outward looking sectors in the whole Italian production system.

    In last years, due to significant international buyouts of important foreign firms, Italian defense industry saw a considerable increase in its turnover, production range and R&D investments.

    The buyouts of British Westland, American DRS Technologies and of US Manitowoc Marine Group have been great operations of industrial politics aiming to further strengthen Italian defense industry which has now strong transnational characteristics.

    Today, and even more so in the future, defense industry is going to be one of the strongest elements in our country system. It is a huge legacy of top level knowledge and skills, which Italy wants to share with friends and allies.
    Collaboration in defense industry between Turkey and Italy has proved itself through the decades as one of the most vital components of the strategic partnership between our countries.

    In recent years, the level of our collaboration reached new peaks, in particular in helicopters and shipyards sectors. We have now established a real partnership, with an exchange of technologies and know-how enriching both countries.

    Looking into the future and always keeping in mind our historical, cultural and political ties, I am sure that all conditions we may need in order to further enhance the cooperation between our countries in this crucial technological and industrial sector are already here.

    Company or Organisation Portrait:

    Ayse AKALIN
    Publisher and Editor in Chief
    DEFENCE TURKEY MAGAZINE

    Defence Turkey Magazine
    Mahatma Gandhi Cad. 33/7
    GOP ANKARA TURKEY
    Phone: 0090 312 4471320
    www.defence-turkey.com
    [email protected]

    Source:  www.defpro.com, May 21 2009

  • Turkey ‘Should Not Link’ Armenia Thaw To Karabakh: Negotiator

    Turkey ‘Should Not Link’ Armenia Thaw To Karabakh: Negotiator

    May 20, 2009

    ANKARA (Reuters) — Turkey should not link its efforts to normalize ties with Armenia to a settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, a French negotiator has said.

    Ankara and Yerevan have been engaged for months in high-level talks aimed at establishing diplomatic relations after a century of hostility and last month announced a “road map” to reopen their borders.

    But after Turkey’s Muslim ally Azerbaijan condemned the reconciliation moves, Ankara said there would be no progress until the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was resolved.

    Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in solidarity with Azerbaijan, which fought a war with ethnic Armenian separatists in the 1990s over the Caucasus enclave.

    Last week, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan promised Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev during a visit to Baku that Turkey would not open the border with Armenia until the “occupation” of Nagorno-Karabakh ended.

    “Normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations and the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute are two separate processes which should continue in parallel but along their own paths,” the French Embassy in Ankara said in a statement after a visit earlier this week by Bernard Fassier, a co-chairman of the Minsk Group.

    The Minsk Group — set up in 1992 and co-chaired by Russia, the United States, and France — is seeking a solution to Nagorno-Karabakh, one of the most intractable conflicts arising from the Soviet Union’s collapse.

    A thaw between Turkey and Armenia, who trace their dispute to the mass killing of Christian Armenians by Ottoman Turks during World War I, would shore up stability in the Caucasus and boost Turkey’s drive to join the European Union.

    U.S. President Barack Obama has urged Ankara and Yerevan to reach a solution soon, but Turkey has been careful not to harm energy projects with Azerbaijan.

    The two countries, which share linguistic and cultural ties, are in talks to sign energy deals, including the purchase of Azeri gas which could be used for the planned Nabucco pipeline to transport Caspian gas to Europe.

  • South Stream Gets a Boost

    South Stream Gets a Boost

    Business Week
    May 18, 2009
    Gas Pipelines: South Stream Gets a Boost
    Key countries sign on to Russia’s South Stream project, giving it an edge over the rival Nabucco pipeline proposal in a race with geopolitical repercussions
    By Jason Bush

    On May 15, Russia signed deals with Italy, Serbia, Bulgaria, and Greece, bringing the South Stream project, a major new gas pipeline to Europe, one step closer to reality.

    At a meeting in Sochi, attended by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, Russia’s Gazprom (GAZP.RTS) and Italy’s ENI (ENI.MI) agreed to double the planned pipeline’s capacity to 63 billion cubic meters. In addition to ENI, Gazprom signed memoranda of understanding with Greek natural gas transmission company DESFA, Serbia’s Srbijagas, and Bulgarian Energy Holding.

    The participating countries also signed documents needed to start work on the 2,000km (1,243-mile) pipeline. With completion planned by 2015, South Stream eventually will pump natural gas from southern Russia under the Black Sea, bringing it via Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, and Greece to terminals in western Austria and southern Italy.

    The agreement represents a significant diplomatic coup for Russia in a great geopolitical race that will help determine the source of Europe’s energy supplies for decades to come. That race has been visibly gaining pace over recent weeks. Backers of a rival pipeline to southern Europe are now vying to put together the necessary political support. “It’s very much down to the wire now,” says Chris Weafer, chief strategist at UralSib (USBN.RTS), a Moscow bank. “There’s definitely a race on to get all the signatures in place.”

    Concerns About a Stranglehold

    It’s no coincidence that the agreements on South Stream come just days after a key summit in Prague designed to give political impetus to Nabucco, a proposed rival pipeline through Turkey that is backed by the European Commission and the U.S. In the eyes of the EU and the U.S., the key advantage of Nabucco is that it would bypass Russia, diminishing Europe’s already heavy dependence on Russian gas. Imports from Russia presently account for around 40% of gas imports and 25% of gas consumption in Europe. Concerns about Russia’s stranglehold on Europe’s energy have only intensified recently, following this January’s damaging price spat between Russia and Ukraine, which briefly saw Russia’s gas supplies to Europe suspended.

    Those fears help explain the recent burst of activity surrounding Nabucco, a project that has been under discussion since 2002. In addition to the Prague summit, the EU has also been busy courting Turkey, a key transit country, which is expected to sign an agreement in June paving the way for Turkey to host the pipeline. Previously, there had been concerns that Turkey would try to use the pipeline as a bargaining chip in EU accession negotiations.

    But despite the recent progress on Nabucco, it all still looks to many analysts like a case of too little, too late. “I believe Nabucco still looks very problematic,” says Jonathan Stern, director of gas research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. “It might work, or it might not, but I don’t think it’s going to work quickly.” He argues that the pipeline probably won’t be viable until around 2020­much later than the 2014 starting date currently being advanced.

    It doesn’t help that Russia, eager to safeguard its dominant position as Europe’s energy supplier, is already one step ahead of the game. The agreements reached in Sochi underscore Russia’s success in winning over key customers and transit countries for South Stream­a project that contradicts the EU’s stated policy of diversifying Europe’s energy supplies.

    Where to Get the Gas

    Even without the competition from South Stream, major question marks continue to hang over the whole economic viability of the Nabucco project. One key problem is financing: So far the EU has only committed a small fraction of the €7.9 billion ($10.6 billion) needed to build the pipeline. An even more basic question is where the gas for Nabucco (ultimately targeted at 31 billion cubic meters per annum) will come from.

    The original idea behind the pipeline was to ship gas from the Caspian region and Central Asia, with gas-rich countries such as Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan supplying the fuel. The snag is that of these four countries, only Azerbaijan signed up to the Prague agreement backing the project.

    The other three Central Asian countries, under diplomatic pressure from Russia, pointedly declined to do so. In any case, no one has figured out how Central Asian gas could be linked up with Nabucco. A pipeline under the Caspian is impossible until all the bordering states resolve a long-running dispute over the sea’s legal status, giving Russia an effective veto.

    Analysts therefore believe the only way Nabucco can be viable is if Iran can now be talked into supplying gas for the project­a scenario that the U.S. previously fought. And despite recent overtures from U.S. President Barack Obama to improve relations with Iran, it’s still far too soon to talk of any diplomatic thaw.

    Meanwhile, the Russians are making progress with South Stream, which currently appears to be the more economically viable of the two. In sharp contrast to Nabucco, the Russians have no shortage of gas that could potentially be transported to Europe via the pipe, and the Russians also seem committed to financing the project. “It’s expensive, controversial, and hard to implement,” says Valery Nesterov, oil and gas analyst at Russian investment bank Troika Dialog. “But at least it has investment guarantees, and a resource base, to be secured by Gazprom. Though not without problems, the financial guarantees and resource base are still more realistic than those secured by Nabucco.”

    Snail vs. Tortoise

    It’s far too early, though, to declare victory for the Russians. The South Stream project also faces many daunting obstacles. Indeed, the great pipeline race might be said to resemble a marathon contest between a snail and a tortoise. “At this stage, it’s not clear where the gas is going to come from for either route,” says UralSib’s Weafer.

    Although Russia has huge gas reserves that could potentially be shipped Europe’s way, most of those reserves are still sitting deep under the Arctic tundra, in the remote Yamal region of Northern Siberia. The cost of bringing them to market is gargantuan­around $250 billion, according to estimates by Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA). The current global recession has only increased the uncertainty about future gas demand, making Gazprom even more reluctant to invest. Russia and the EU have so far failed to hammer out legal agreements that would regulate joint ventures between Gazprom and Western partners. “It’s a real mess,” says Weafer.

    Then there’s the tremendous cost of the South Stream pipeline itself. Officially estimated at between €19 billion and €24 billion ($25.6 billion to $32.4 billion), it’s around three times as expensive as the alternative Nabucco route. Those costs could now be especially problematic, at a time when the global financial crisis is depressing gas prices and Gazprom’s profits. “Gazprom is facing financial difficulties in the years to come,” says Nesterov, “and the cost of the project is tremendous.”

    So despite South Stream’s diplomatic head start, the outcome of the great pipeline race is still far from certain. And neither pipeline is likely to provide any quick solution to Europe’s mounting long-term energy needs.

    Bush is BusinessWeek’s Moscow bureau chief.