Category: Austria

  • Analysis: Turkey helps pull the rug from under Nabucco

    Analysis: Turkey helps pull the rug from under Nabucco

    By Ferruh Demirmen, Ph.D.
    Houston, Texas

    Judging from the press reports, one would not know it, but Turkey, the presumed supporter of the Nabucco gas project, recently helped kill the project.

    It was not to be so. After all, the Nabucco project was designed not only to supply natural gas to the EU from the Caspian region and the Middle East, but also help Turkey meet its domestic needs. The intergovernmental agreement signed in Ankara amid media publicity in July 2009, followed by parliamentary seal of approval in March 2010, gave all the indications that Turkey would stand by the project.

    Turkey’s BOTAS was one of the 6 partners that developed the project. The Vienna-based NIC (Nabucco International Company) represented the consortium formed by the partners. The 3,900 km-long pipeline’s planned destination was Baumgarten in Austria.

    Not that the project was ideal for Turkey (). But compared to its rivals ITGI (Italy-Greece Interconnector) and TAP (Trans-Adriatic Pipeline), not to mention a host of “exotic” Black Sea options flagged by Azerbaijan, it was the most mature and most comprehensive gas pipeline project to connect Turkey and the EU to the supply sources to the east. Strategically it deserved Turkey’s support. It was the only project among its rivals that aimed to transport Azeri as well as non-Azeri gas. Turkmen gas was a high-priority objective.

    Surely, with its ambitious design capacity of 31 billion m3 (bcm)/year, Nabucco was under stress. What was holding the project from implementation was the lack of feed (throughput) gas. The feed gas problem caused delays in the project, and the capital costs soared (up to EUR 14-15 billion by most recent estimates). The Azeri Shah Deniz-II gas was identified as the initial start-up gas as from 2017-2018.

    But Azerbaijan, that owned the gas, and the Shah Deniz consortium that would share and produce it, were non-committal about supplying gas. That meant major headache for Nabucco. Turkmen gas input required the cooperation of Azerbaijan, and would be added to the gas stream at a later date.

    In the meantime, the rival projects ITGI and TAP emerged. Like Nabucco, these also counted on Shah Deniz-II gas for throughput. A winner-take-all pipeline contest was in the works.

    Still, Nabucco had a good fighting chance. On October 1, 2011, NIC submitted its proposal to the Shah Deniz consortium tabling transport terms. The rival projects ITGI and TAP did the same. A high-stakes waiting game would then start, during which the Shah Deniz consortium would pick the winner.

    The spoiler project

    All that changed when BP (British Petroleum), at the last minute before the October 1 deadline, came up with a new, “in-house” project: SEEP (South-East Europe Pipeline). It was a shrewd move, and immediately caught the attention of the Shah Deniz consortium – where BP is the operator and a major (25.5%) stake holder. The Azeri partner SOCAR, in particular, quickly warmed up to BP’s proposal.

    Instead of building a new pipeline across the Turkish territory, SEEP envisioned the use of BOTAS’ existing network (with upgrades) in Turkey and construction of new pipelines and their integration with existing interconnectors past Turkey. Azeri gas would be the feed gas. The destination would still be Austria, but the cost would be much less than that of Nabucco.

    Nabucco had come under threat.

    Behind the scenes

    Events behind the scenes further undermined Nabucco. On October 25 Ankara and Baku signed an intergovernmental agreement in Izmir in western Turkey. Details released to the press were sketchy, but one of the accords reached was to use initially BOTAS’ existing network in Turkey, and later build a new pipeline when needed, to ship Shah Deniz II gas to Turkey and the EU. Starting in 2017 or 2018, of the total 16 bcm gas to be produced annually from the Shah Deniz-II phase, Turkey would receive 6 bcm, and the rest 10 bcm would be shipped to the EU.

    Azerbaijan would be the direct seller of gas to the EU, with Turkey being a mere bridge or transit route.

    No mention was made of Nabucco, ITGI, TAP, or SEEP in the press release, but the footprints of SEEP were unmistakable.

    Demise of Nabucco

    Still worse news followed. On November 17, during the Third Black Sea Energy and Economic Forum held in Istanbul, SOCAR chief Rovnag Abdullayev announced that a new gas pipeline, which he named “Trans-Anatolia,” would be built in Turkey from east to west under the leadership of SOCAR. The new pipeline would deliver Shah Deniz II gas to Turkey and Europe.

    Azerbaijan and Turkey had already started working on the pipeline project, he said, and others could possibly join later. The planned capacity was at least 16 bcm/year –large enough to absorb all future Azeri exports after depletion of Shah Deniz II.

    While not stated so, the announcement made Nabucco effectively redundant. The announcement was an offtake from the Izmir agreement, and signaled a surprising, 180-degree turn on the part of Turkey on Nabucco.

    Turkey’s energy minister Yildiz Taner tried to put the best face in the press by claiming that Trans-Anatolian would “supplement” Nabucco, while the NIC chief Reinhard Mitschek expressed his “confidence” in Nabucco.

    More recently SOCAR’s Abdullayev maintained that Nabucco was still “in the race,” and NIC started the pre-qualification process for procurement contractors.

    For all these business-as-usual pronouncements, however, there was little doubt that Nabucco had received a fatal blow. If Trans-Anatolia, dedicated to Shah Deniz II gas, is built, Nabucco will lose its start-up gas, and with it the justification for a new infrastructure across Turkey.

    Without synergy from the Azeri gas, a full-fledged Nabucco project dedicated solely to Turkmen gas will also have a virtually zero chance of implementation.

    Nabucco, in its present form, was dead. (See also . A much-modified, “truncated” version of Nabucco, starting at the Turkey-Bulgaria border, may well emerge, however.

    Conclusion

    With Nabucco frozen in its tracks, the geopolitics of energy in Turkey and its neighborhood has changed dramatically ). What is surprising is that Turkey assisted in undermining a project that it had long supported. It was a project that encompassed both Azeri and Turkmen gas. To reduce its dependence on Russia for its gas exports, Turkmenistan has been eager to ship its gas to the West.

    Azerbaijan, apparently viewing Turkmen gas exports to the West a threat to its own gas exports, has been reluctant to cooperate with Ashgabat on this issue.

    Turkey acceded to the aspirations of the Azeri brethren, while ignoring those of the Turkmen brethren. Over the past year, as the EU delegates approached repeatedly Ashgabat for Turkmen gas (vis-à-vis a TCGP or Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline), Turkey chose to stay on the sidelines. This was a strategic mistake.

    Both Baku and Ashgabat could benefit from a synergy between the Azeri and Turkmen gaz exports, and Turkey could use gas from both sources to enhance its energy security. Being pro-active on TGCP and nudging Azerbaijan in that direction would have been a wise move for Turkey. On balance, there is little doubt that on the gas issue Azerbaijan has played its cards well – perhaps too well!

    ferruh@demirmen.com

  • Austria blocking visa deal between Turkey, EU

    Austria blocking visa deal between Turkey, EU

    FULYA ÖZERKAN

    ANKARA – Hürriyet Daily News

    As fears run high over Vienna’s retaliation after Ankara’s veto of candidacy of a former Austrian foreign minister to be the secretary-general of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, or OSCE, it has been learned that Austria is one of the countries blocking Turkey’s visa agreement with the European Union.

    “What more can Austria do to complicate Turkey’s EU accession? It is already one of the countries standing in the way of any agreement between Turkey and the EU for visa-free travel,” a source told the Hürriyet Daily News on Tuesday.

    Turkey vetoed Austria’s Ursula Plassnik to be OSCE secretary-general citing concerns over her public statements about European identity. The Turkish Foreign Ministry, however, denied any link between its opposition to the Austrian candidate and this action’s negative repercussions on Ankara’s EU negotiations.

    “That would demonstrate through which dimension Austria is looking at Turkish-EU relations. Interlinking the two issues is tantamount to comparing apples and oranges,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Selçuk Ünal told the Daily News.

    Ünal also dismissed speculation that Ankara and Vienna had reached an accord not to veto each other’s candidates.

    “We have opposed the Austrian candidate since the very beginning because of her public statements not reflecting a pan-European vision. Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu verbally made this clear both to his Austrian counterpart during telephone conversations and to the Lithuanian term presidency of the OSCE,” he said.

    “Plus, we were not the only country opposing Austria’s candidate,” said Ünal.

    It has been learned that the Russians were also against Plassnik and reluctant to see another European as secretary-general of OSCE. Previous secretary-generals of the organization have been from EU member states Germany, Italy, Slovakia and France.

    Turkey warned against pushing for Austrian candidate

    Turkey warned the Lithuanian presidency not to push for the Austrian candidate, otherwise it would use its right to veto, it has been revealed.

    Turkey’s veto of the Austrian candidate also came after the Lithuanian term presidency’s move to send letters to the representatives of OSCE member states in Vienna saying Plassnik would become secretary-general, a development that angered Ankara.

    In return, Turkey, which previously made its position clear verbally in compliance with diplomatic courtesy, dispatched a written note objecting to Plassnik on the argument that two other countries, Greek Cyprus and Armenia, used the same route to oppose the Turkish candidate.

    “We have never articulated the word veto. But the first written veto came from Armenia and Greek Cyprus against our candidate. And it appeared we could use the same method,” said Ünal.

    “We first refrained from using this method out of diplomatic courtesy, but we clearly told Austria and Lithuania that we would not hesitate to do so if they insist on the Austrian candidate,” he said.

    Turkey nominated Ersin Erçin, the country’s ambassador to Brazil and the president’s adviser for European security, for the same position. Italy and Portugal also nominated candidates. Decisions at OSCE are made through consensus.

    President did not make any promise, says Ankara

    Some news reports, meanwhile, claimed President Abdullah Gül promised Austrian Foreign Minister Michael Spindelegger not to oppose the Austrian candidate during a reception given on May 2, before a dinner hosted by Austrian President Heinz Fischer. Ünal told the Daily News that the Turkish president has not made such a promise and instead emphasized the strong support for the Turkish candidate.

    via Austria blocking visa deal between Turkey, EU – Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review.

  • Turkey vetoes ex-Austrian foreign minister’s OSCE candidacy

    Turkey vetoes ex-Austrian foreign minister’s OSCE candidacy

    ANKARA – Hürriyet Daily News

    Turkey vetoes ex-Austrian foreign minister’s OSCE candidacy

    turkey vetoes former austrian foreign ministers candidacy for osce 2011 06 05 lAnkara has vetoed the candidacy of a former Austrian foreign minister to be the secretary-general of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, or OSCE, citing concerns about his stance on Turkey.

    “We have notified not only Austria but also Lithuania [the rotating president of the OSCE] that it is impossible for us to accept a person who discusses our European identity as the secretary-general of such an important international organization,” Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu said in a TV interview Saturday.

    Lithuania had sent letters to representatives of 55 OSCE members in Vienna, saying former Austrian Foreign Minister Ursula Plassnik had been nominated as secretary-general. Turkey had nominated Ersin Erçin, the country’s ambassador to Brazil and the president’s adviser for European security, for the same position. Italy and Portugal also nominated candidates.

    Turkey’s move was not a veto of Austria, Davutoğlu said, adding that Austria had nominated a candidate who does not support an inclusive European identity. Plassnik said in 2008 that Turkey, a predominantly Muslim country, should consider a relationship with the European Union short of full membership.

    As Turkey has vetoed Plassnik, 56 member states will seek consensus on Turkey’s candidate, Italy’s Lamberto Zannier or Portugal’s Joao Soares.

    Davutoğlu said Turkey’s candidate received significant support at first, but the Greek Cypriot administration and Armenia said they would veto his candidacy. “Then, Erçin was ranked second in the voting,” the minister said.

    Lithuania has to nominate Plassnik or another candidate by Monday and ask for the consent of member countries. The OSCE makes all its decisions through consensus.

    The OSCE is the world’s largest regional security organization, including 56 states from Europe. It offers a forum for political negotiations and decision-making in the fields of early warning, conflict prevention, crisis management and post-conflict rehabilitation, and puts the political will of its participating states into practice through its unique network of field missions.

    via Turkey vetoes ex-Austrian foreign minister’s OSCE candidacy – Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review.

  • Turkey opposes Austria’s former foreign minister to become new OSCE chief

    Turkey opposes Austria’s former foreign minister to become new OSCE chief

    Turkey opposes Austria’s former foreign minister to become new OSCE chief

    By: The Associated Press

    uQSthEANKARA, Turkey – Turkey says it opposes the candidacy of Austria’s former foreign minister to become the next secretary general of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

    Turkey’s foreign ministry said Saturday it can’t support Ursula Plassnik because she opposes Turkey’s bid to become a full member of the European Union.

    Plassnik said in 2008 that Turkey, a predominantly Muslim country, should consider a tie-up with the EU short of full membership.

    Turkey’s Ersin Ercin, Italy’s Lamberto Zannier and Portugal’s Joao Soares are the remaining candidates.

    via Turkey opposes Austria’s former foreign minister to become new OSCE chief – Winnipeg Free Press.

  • Austria to hold referendum on Turkey’s EU membership

    Austria to hold referendum on Turkey’s EU membership

    VIENNA, Austria — A national referendum will be held on Turkey’s EU accession, regardless of the outcome of negotiations between Brussels and Ankara, Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann announced on Tuesday (May 3rd) after meeting with Turkish President Abdullah Gul in Vienna. Gul stressed that Turkey’s membership could provide commercial benefits to bloc members, including Austria. At a Turkish-Austrian business forum, he stressed alternative energy resources. “Turkey is one of the most successful countries in terms of hydroelectric power plants … and one of the world’s most important countries in terms of pipelines,” Gul said.

    Separately Tuesday, a group of 57 NGOs submitted a declaration to the European Parliament (EP) in Strasbourg calling for an end to the stalemate in Turkey’s EU accession. Haluk Kabaalioglu, chairman of the Economic Development Foundation, assured EP members that Turkey is still interested in joining the EU. “It is time to indicate that the EU is also interested in Turkey,” he added. (Haber Turk, Anadolu news agency, Hurriyet, Anadolu news agency, Zaman

    via Austria to hold referendum on Turkey’s EU membership (SETimes.com).

  • Austrian president: ‘Turkey’s EU bid must continue’

    Austrian president: ‘Turkey’s EU bid must continue’

    On the eve of Turkish President Abdullah Gül’s visit to Vienna, Austrian President Heinz Fischer has said his country favors the continuation of the EU membership process for Turkey, with an increased focus on substantive issues.

    austria

    He also reiterated the Austrian government’s position that accession negotiations are open-ended, meaning that they will not automatically lead to membership.

    “It is important that negotiations with Turkey continue. Nobody denies that the process will be a long and difficult one. Austria fully endorsed the launch of official membership talks with Turkey. The only chapter that has been closed in the course of negotiations happened during our presidency,” Fischer said in an exclusive interview with Today’s Zaman.

    Fischer acknowledged that the 27-nation bloc is undergoing very difficult times due to the economic crisis and that this would increase skepticism for enlargement in public opinion. “It is a question of whether the EU is ready to accept a large country like Turkey with a population of 70 million,” he said, stressing there are other special issues, such as the Cyprus problem, that remain to be solved. The Austrian president declined to give an estimate of when Turkey could become a full member of the EU.

    The Austrian president also rejected charges of xenophobia and Islamophobia, saying, “We do not tolerate any kind of discrimination, including xenophobia.” He underlined that freedom of religion was protected under the current constitution. “I would say this: Freedom of religion not only applies to churches in this country but also covers Islam as well. An environment of respect must be established for the people from different religions or regions,” he explained.

    Touching upon the increased economic cooperation between the two countries, Fischer said with Austria was the largest contributor of foreign direct investment (FDI) to Turkey in 2010, which amounted to 1 billion euros from Austrian companies.(YES JUST FROM AUSTRIA)He praised the hundreds of Turkish businesses operating in Austria. “I think the increased economic cooperation will help promote the general outlook of our bilateral ties,” he underlined.

    Both presidents are expected to cover a range of issues from political dialogue to economic cooperation. More than 200 million Turks live in Austria, and their integration is expected to be one of the topics of discussion between the two presidents. Gül would become the first Turkish president to visit Austria since former President Süleyman Demirel paid a visit in 1998. The Austrian president visited Turkey in 2008. Gül’s reciprocal visit starts today and ends on May 4.

    Turkish president: Turks may say ‘no’ to the EU

    In an interview with leading Austrian dailies on the eve of his visit, Turkish President Abdullah Gül has said the Turkish people may say “no” to EU membership, just as the Norwegians did.

    In a Der Standard interview published on April 29, Gül said, “Turkish nationals living in Austria have to speak the two languages fluently.” Responding to another question, Gül said millions of Muslims in Europe could not be, and should not be, disregarded. “Such a thing will mean religious discrimination. It is not important whether a person is Muslim, Christian or Jewish. It is important that this person supports the fundamental principles of democracy and human rights,” he stated.

    As for EU prospects for Turkey, Gül said: “Austrian citizens may have a different point of view, one not sympathetic to Turkey. What we should do is to present Turkey in a better way in Austria. We should also explain to them that Turkey will not be a burden on Austria when it becomes an EU member. On the contrary, this will be advantageous for both parties.”

    In another interview published on the same day by Austria’s Die Presse, Gül said both countries were inheritors of important states and empires. “I believe that we will be able to deepen economic and political relations during the visit. Around 200,000 Turkish nationals are living in Austria. Around 100,000 of them are Austrian nationals. They are a part of Austrian society and very important for Turkish-Austrian relations,” he said.

    “The Austrian constitution recognizes the religion of Islam. This is a good starting point. Austria is the inheritor of an empire consisting of several pieces. However, we see that there are concerning developments in all of Europe, such as xenophobia, extremism and Islamophobia. They contradict the spirit of Europe as Europe is the motherland of human rights. We have seen in the past those who are different are isolated in Europe,” he said.

    Zaman