Category: Russian Federation

  • Tehran — with Moscow’s Backing — Seeks to Expand its Role in the Caucasus

    Tehran — with Moscow’s Backing — Seeks to Expand its Role in the Caucasus

    Paul Goble

    Vienna, November 3 – The big winner at the summit among the presidents of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan yesterday may be a country was not there: Iran, whose return to an active role in the Caucasus, something the US opposes and the Minsk Group was organized to prevent, now appears to enjoy the active support of both Moscow and Yerevan.
    Yesterday, following their meeting in Moscow, Presidents Dmitry Medvedev, Serzh Sarksyan, and Ilham Aliyev signed a joint declaration on their commitment to continuing to pursue “a peaceful regulation” of the Karabakh conflict by means of talks, including within the framework of the Minsk Group (www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/newstext/news/id/1232473.html).
    While Russian commentators celebrated this document not only as a major contribution to the peace in the Caucasus and a confirmation of Russia’s newly expanded role there, in fact, neither that declaration nor the meetings of the foreign ministers on Friday or their joint session with the Minsk Group on Saturday broke much if any new ground.
    But a statement by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Friday suggests that the diplomatic landscape in the Caucasus may be changing quickly, albeit in ways that may not lead to any resolution of the conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan or between Georgia and the Russian Federation.
    Lavrov said that Iran had expressed an interest in creating a security zone in the Caucasus, a step that would appear to challenge both the Minsk Group which was created to exclude Iran from having a role in the region and Turkey which has proposed creating a Platform of Security and Stability in the Caucasus (www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/newstext/news/id/1232455.html).
    The Russian foreign minister said that he had spoken with Iranian officials about their desire to be included “in discussions” about the Caucasus, a move that appears to be the product of both Moscow’s own desire to promote a north-south axis through the Caucasus and two developments earlier this fall.
    On the one hand, Yerevan indicated that it was not prepared to talk about Turkey’s proposal for security unless Iran was involved (kavkaz-uzel.ru/newstext/news/id/1229327.html). And on the other, Tehran offered itself as an intermediary for possible talks between Moscow and Tbilisi (kavkaz-uzel.ru/newstext/news/id/1089720.html).
    The Russian foreign minister said that Moscow has still not received any concrete proposals from Tehran in this regard, but earlier last week, the Iranian news agency IRNA quoted an Iranian deputy foreign minister to the effect that Tehran is currently “completing” work on them.
    It is, of course, entirely possible that Iran’s proposals, even if they do find support in Moscow and Yerevan, will go no further than Turkey’s have in resolving some of the neuralgic disputes of the South Caucasus. But just like the Moscow meeting itself, Iran’s new involvement represents a kind of tectonic shift there.
    Since the end of the Soviet Union, the United States has taken the lead in trying to keep Iran from having any role in the region. That is of course why Washington promoted the creation of the Minsk Group, a product of the only international organization in which all the regional players were members except Iran.
    But that group has not succeeded in squaring the circle on Karabakh, a dispute in which the positions of the two sides are not really any closer than they were a decade or more ago. And consequently, those immediately involved have become increasingly frustrated and are willing to explore different venues and negotiating partners.
    Such frustrations have given an opening to Iran. And as Lavrov’s remarks in Moscow on Friday indicate, Tehran is ready and willing to get involved, a development that the Russian government gives every indication of welcoming whatever its Minsk Group and American “partners” may think.

  • No Karabakh Deal Announced After Moscow Summit

    No Karabakh Deal Announced After Moscow Summit

     

     

     

     

     

    By Aza Babayan in Moscow and Tigran Avetisian

    The presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan pledged to step up the prolonged search for a peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict but did not announce any concrete agreements after weekend talks hosted by their Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev.

    Serzh Sarkisian and Ilham Aliev met in a tête-à-tête format and were later joined by Medvedev at the Meiendorf Castle outside Moscow on Sunday amid fresh international hopes for a breakthrough in Armenian-Azerbaijani peace talks mediated by Russia, the United States and France

    “The presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed to continue work, including during further contacts on the highest level, on agreeing a political resolution of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh and ordered their foreign ministers to intensify further steps in the negotiating process in coordination with the co-chairs of the OSCE’s Minsk Group,” the three leaders said in a joint declaration read out by Medvedev.

    The declaration stressed the importance of continued efforts by the group’s American, French and Russian co-chairs to work out the basic principles of a Karabakh settlement acceptable to the conflicting parties. But it only vaguely alluded to a framework peace accord that was formally put forward by the co-chairs in November 2007.

    Armenia and Azerbaijani are understood to have agreed to most of the key points of the proposed settlement. The mediators hoped before the Moscow talks that the two sides will overcome their remaining differences before the end of this year.

    The mediating troika, including U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Bryza, held separate talks with Aliev and Sarkisian at Meiendorf later on Sunday. No details of those talks were made public and the mediators issued no joint statements afterwards.

    Speaking to RFE/RL just before those talks, Yuri Merzlyakov, the Minsk Group’s Russian co-chair, described the trilateral declaration as a “historic” document that will speed up the peace process. He noted that Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders have jointly put pen to paper for the first time since the signing in May 1994 of a Russian-mediated truce that stopped the war in Karabakh.

    The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry appeared to downplay the document’s significance, though. “One should not look for anything new in the signing of the document,” a ministry spokesman, Khazar Ibrahim, told journalists in Baku on Monday, according to the Trend news agency. “Negotiations are still going on and their significance is reflected by the declaration. The groundwork needs to be laid for the transition to the next phase of the negotiations.”

    A senior official in Yerevan seemed in a more buoyant mood. Eduard Sharmazanov, a spokesman for the governing Republican Party of Armenia, pointed to the declaration’s emphasis on a “political settlement” of the Karabakh conflict. “This runs counter to bellicose statements that were made by Azerbaijani officials,” he told RFE/RL.

    Sharmazanov also pointed out that the declaration makes clear that the Minsk Group will remain the main mediating body in Karabakh talks. He said this disproved opposition allegations that Sarkisian is ready to let Armenia’s arch-rival Turkey take on a mediating role in the peace process.

    Armenia’s main opposition alliance, meanwhile, declined to comment on the Moscow talks on Monday. Levon Zurabian, a senior member of the Armenian National Congress, told RFE/RL that the top leader of the alliance, Levon Ter-Petrosian, will issue a special statement on Tuesday.

  • Moscow Declaration – A Victory For Armenia

    Moscow Declaration – A Victory For Armenia

    Russian President Dmitry Medvedev (right) with his counterparts from Armenia, Serzh Sarkisian (center), and Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev.

    November 03, 2008
    By Liz Fuller

     

    The Declaration On Regulating the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict signed by the presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia following their talks in Moscow on November 2 can be regarded as a victory for Armenia in three key respects.

    First, the three presidents reaffirmed their shared commitment to seeking a political solution to the conflict “on the basis of the norms and principles of international law and of the decisions and documents adopted within that framework,” and with the stated objective of “creating a more healthy situation in the South Caucasus.”

    In other words, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who has previously warned on numerous occasions that if mediation by the Minsk Group, created by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE), fails to yield a solution to the conflict, Azerbaijan will have no option but to resort to the use of military force to bring Nagorno-Karabakh under the control of the central government, has formally pledged not to begin a new war.

    Second, the declaration stresses the importance of the ongoing mediation effort by the OSCE Minsk Group, and specifically of the so-called Madrid Principles, the basic blueprint for resolving the conflict.

    In other words, the declaration effectively precludes any effort by Turkey to promote an alternative peace proposal that might be more in line with Azerbaijan’s vision of the optimal solution than are the Madrid Principles. Visiting Yerevan two months ago, Turkish President Abdullah Gul affirmed Turkey’s readiness to “assist” in resolving the Karabakh conflict.

    And third, the three presidents agreed that the search for a peaceful solution should be accompanied by “legally binding international guarantees of all its aspects and stages.”

    From Yerevan’s viewpoint, the primary weakness of the so-called Madrid Principles is that they require Armenia to relinquish its most important bargaining chip and withdraw from the seven districts of Azerbaijan bordering on Nagorno-Karabakh that it currently controls before any decision has been made on the future status of the unrecognized republic vis-a-vis the central Azerbaijani government in Baku. That issue is to be decided by means of a referendum that may not take place until years after the Armenian withdrawal.

    ‘Confidence-Building Measures’

    Many Armenians are therefore concerned that, having regained control of the seven districts, the Azerbaijani government might then block the holding of the planned referendum.

    The Armenian Revolutionary Federation-Dashnaktsutiun threatened on October 31 to quit the coalition government if President Serzh Sarkisian betrays “national interests” by agreeing to cede the occupied territories. One day earlier, on October 30, a group of prominent Armenian intellectuals and public figures announced the launch of a new movement, named Unification National Initiative, that will similarly actively oppose any territorial concessions to Azerbaijan.

    The proposed “legally binding international guarantees” are presumably intended to prevent any such perfidy on Baku’s part, and thus reduce domestic political pressure on Sarkisian. The final point of the declaration similarly stresses the importance of “confidence-building measures.”

    The international guarantees would presumably also encompass commitments by various states to provide international peacekeepers to be deployed in the seven liberated districts and the strategic Lachin corridor linking Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia.

    Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, too, can be pleased with the outcome of the November 2 talks, insofar as the declaration affirms a commitment by Russia to a positive role, promoting peace and stability in the South Caucasus in the wake of the August war with Georgia.

  • Russian, Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers begin meeting in Moscow

    Russian, Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers begin meeting in Moscow

     

     
     

    [ 31 Oct 2008 19:53 ]
    Baku. Lachin Sultanova–APA. Foreign ministers of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia Sergei Lavrov, Elmar Mammadyarov and Edward Nalbandyan have started their meeting at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia in Moscow.

    The ministers will make announcement for the journalists after the meeting, diplomatic sources told APA.
    On Saturday the ministers will hold consultations with OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs Yuriy Merzlyakov (Russia), Bernard Fassier (France) and Matthew Bryza (USA) and special representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office Andrzej Kasprzyk.
    The meetings have a character of preparation for the negotiations between the presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia Dmitriy Medvedev, Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan on November 2 in Moscow on the settlement of Nagorno Karabakh conflict.

  • Georgia, Russia: Moscow’s Troop Checkmate

    Georgia, Russia: Moscow’s Troop Checkmate

    Stratfor.com

    Summary

    Russia has ratified treaties with the Georgian breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia that will see 3,800 Russian troops stationed in the two territories. The decision puts the Georgian military in checkmate, and it sends a clear message to the West as Russia consolidates control of its periphery.

    Analysis

    The Russian Duma ratified treaties with Abkhazia and South Ossetia on Oct. 29 that provide for the stationing of 3,800 troops in both Georgian breakaway provinces. The deployment places Russian troops in key strategic positions, giving Moscow decisive control over the two regions and the ability to put Georgia at permanent risk.

    The troops will be stationed at Russian bases. In South Ossetia, they will be located in Tskhinvali and Java, and in Abkhazia they will be stationed in Gudauta (a former Russian base) and Ochamchira. These bases are situated on strategic supply lines that run from Russia to the heart of Georgian territory.

    From its position in South Ossetia, which juts halfway into the heart of Georgia, Russia will have rapid access to Georgia’s main transportation corridors and the strategic city of Gori. Russian proximity means Moscow can shut down the main road and rail routes through the country at will. The occupation of Gori and the transit corridor would isolate the Georgian capital of Tbilisi from ports on the Black Sea as well as from any meaningful transportation route to Turkey and Armenia, as Russia demonstrated briefly during the Russian-Georgian war. Gori also straddles Georgia’s three major pipelines, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the Baku-Tbilisi-Supsa oil pipeline and the Shah Deniz natural gas pipeline. All three ship Azerbaijani energy resources to world markets via Georgia.

    Russian logistical links in South Ossetia are entirely reliant on the vulnerable two-lane Roki Tunnel, but from Abkhazia, the Russians have a direct line of transport on the railway along the Black Sea. From here, Russian troops are poised to again sever Georgian connections to the outside world, this time from its Black Sea ports and from Western-oriented Turkey.

    The Russian military is the undisputed power in the region. The Georgian military by contrast is small, weak and underprepared for substantial action. With a total of 7,600 Russian troops stationed on former Georgian territory (about 2,400 fewer than were used during the 2008 invasion), there is little the Georgian military can do to counter Russia. In short, Moscow is poised to permanently station a combined military force that is every bit as large as the active-duty Georgian ground forces, which number around 7,000 and are largely conscripted. Georgia’s small navy and air force (each numbering under 1,500) are supplemented by a comparably sized national guard and some 11,000 border guards and Interior Ministry troops. Although the U.S. military has actively trained the Georgian military over the past four years, Tbilisi is ill-trained and ill-equipped to stave off military aggression from even one of the 3,800-strong Russian contingents ­ much less move offe nsively against both of them.

    With this treaty, Russia effectively has finished positioning enough forces in key locations to crush the Georgian military should the need arise. These troops will suffice to deter or block Georgian maneuvers at a moment’s notice in the near term.

    But the decision to fully occupy South Ossetia is more than just a way to control Georgia. Russia has now made sure that no amount of Western financial aid or rhetorical support will be able to alter the military reality on the ground for Georgia. This is a well-crafted message, both to the West and to neighbors like Ukraine that are flirting with notions of aligning with the West, that Russia is not to be messed with ­ especially not on its periphery.

  • Western Mediators To Join Armenian-Azeri Summit In Moscow

    Western Mediators To Join Armenian-Azeri Summit In Moscow

     

     

     

     

     

    By Ruben Meloyan

    U.S. and French mediators will travel to Moscow ahead of Sunday’s meeting of the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents hosted by Russia, Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian announced on Thursday.

    Nalbandian said he and his Azerbaijani counterpart Elmar Mammadyarov will meet the American, French as well as Russian diplomats co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group in the Russian capital on Saturday. He said the co-chairs could also meet Presidents Ilham Aliev and Serzh Sarkisian after their trilateral meeting with Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev.

    Medvedev has initiated the Armenian-Azerbaijani summit amid renewed international hopes for a near-term solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The Russian president and other officials have expressed hope that Aliev and Sarkisian will bridge their remaining differences on a framework peace accord proposed by the Minsk Group.

    The Russian initiative has fuelled talk of Moscow seeking to sideline the West in the Karabakh peace process as part of its efforts to boost its influence in the South Caucasus after the recent war with Georgia.

    However, the initiative was welcomed by the United States on Wednesday. “We are pleased by this initiative that Moscow is undertaking. We hope that the initiative succeeds. We are monitoring it very closely,” U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters.

    “We hope that the meeting of the presidents will give yet another serious impetus to the acceleration of the negotiations,” Nalbandian said for his part. He said the success of the Moscow talks depends on whether Azerbaijan will embrace mutual compromise. The Armenian side is ready to make its share of the concessions, he said.

    “We can find a settlement with Azerbaijan,” Nalbandian told a news conference. “That will be possible if Azerbaijan expresses political will and opts for an appropriate settlement, instead of taking disruptive steps in various international organizations and making parallel statements.”

    Sarkisian said at the weekend that the Karabakh dispute can be resolved only if Azerbaijan recognizes the Karabakh Armenians’ “right to self-determination.” But Aliev insisted on Friday that Baku will never accept Karabakh’s secession from Azerbaijan.

    Nalbandian also dismissed opposition claims that Sarkisian is re-orienting Armenia’s foreign policy towards the West in hopes of securing U.S. and European support for his rule. “If somebody notices some change in our relations with Russia, I can assure them that that change can only reinforce, expand and deepen our strategic and allied relations with Russia, “ he said.