Category: Russian Federation

Russia could attack the West ???

That’s what it’s all about:

According to the Bild newspaper, the German Bundeswehr is studying scenarios in which Russia could attack the West bevor the summer. The situation could escalate in the coming winter, the document continues.

In the summer of 2025, NATO could finally deploy 300,000 troops to Ukraine’s eastern flank. While Ukraine is aiming for a summit at the highest level on its peace plan, Russian President Vladimir Putin probably has other intentions: According to a training plan of the German Defense Ministry, the Kremlin chief could prepare a hybrid attack on NATO as early as next winter. This is reported by the “Bild” newspaper.

In the secret report, the German Defense Ministry outlines in detail a possible “path to conflict” between Russia and the Western defense alliance. Month after month, both Russian and Western actions are described. Among other things, the Bundeswehr expects the mobilization of hundreds of thousands of NATO soldiers and an imminent outbreak of war in the summer of 2025, according to the “Bild”. Large-scale Russian manoeuvres from September Russia wants to call up another 200,000 men into the army soon to launch a new offensive against Ukraine in the spring.

In the summer months, Russia would then begin increasingly open attacks on the West – including through severe cyberattacks. The large-scale “Zapad 2024” manoeuvre with 50,000 troops is scheduled to start in western Russia and Belarus in September.

At the end of the year, there would be a Russian invasion of areas of eastern Ukraine, whereupon NATO is to deploy around 300,000 soldiers to Ukraine’s eastern flank on the so-called “Day X” in the summer of 2025. Different scenarios considered The Ministry of Defense declined to comment on the information.

Only this much: “Basically, I can tell you that the consideration of different scenarios – even if they are extremely unlikely – is part of everyday military business, especially in training,” a spokesman for the ministry told Bild. Just last week, Swedish security experts warned of the danger of war with Russia. “Many have said it before me, but let me say it by virtue of my office: there could be a war in Sweden,” said Carl-Oskar Bohlin, Sweden’s Minister of Civil Protection.

Everyone must prepare for the worst-case scenario, such as a war with Russia, before it is too late, Bohlin said.

January 18, 2024
Why didn’t Russia conquer Constantinople?

Why didn’t Russia try to conquer Constantinople and surrounding territories after the Ottoman Empire collapsed?

During the 1768 — 1774 Russian Ottoman war , Russia was close to conquer the Ottoman Empire

Battle of Chesme

Ali Bey al Kabir

Russia conquered Crimea and kicked the Ottomans out , defeated them in Caucasus , and totally destroyed the Ottoman navy in 1770 during the battle of Chesme

a revolt occurred in Greece and Russia formed an alliance with the Mamluk of Egypt Ali Bey al Kabir who kicked the Ottomans out of Egypt and marched towards Syria with Russian support

Russia bombed and occupied Beirut , at that time the Ottoman Empire lost all of it’s Arab provinces as Iraq was ruled by Kulmnd Mamluks and Syria was falling as well , Russia had the Ottomans on their knees , but Britain , Austria and Prussia saved the Ottomans and prevented Russia from conquering Constantinople

Russia tried again in 1791 and 1878 and was too close but the Western powers feared a very powerful Russia.

John Jafar on Quora

October 17, 2023
Russia’s East Compass and the shadow of Kim Jong-un

On September 10-13, Russian Vladivostok hosted the Eastern Economic Forum -for the eighth time. This year, the international component of the EEF has come to the fore: Business in Southeast Asia is showing an active interest in any projects and is ready to participate not only in dialogue.

Main focus: new economy, trade and logistics

Politicians, businessmen and journalists from 50 countries came to Russky Island this week. According to the tradition, the Forum started on September,10 with the “Falcon Day,” during which the authorities announce the agenda of a global program for the conservation of gyrfalcon population.

The next day was devoted to the main business program of the Eastern Economic Forum started. One of its key events was a series of sessions entitled “International cooperation in a changed world.” Here Russian business discussed the peculiarities and potential of building relations with colleagues from Southeast Asia. The dialogue between the countries has taken a very serious turn in the recent years: this year, China strengthened its position in Russian market for passenger cars, cell phones and televisions. In general, the volume of trade with China alone jumped by 40% in the first half of 2023. And the total investments of this country in Russia, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, as of May, amounted to $165 billion.

Among the main goals of the Forum was to establish contacts with Eastern partners within specific projects, so the forum became a platform for a dialogue with China and Asian countries.

Much attention was paid to increasing trade turnover with Asian countries and creating favorable conditions for this, including expanding logistics routes, modernizing existing corridors for the movement of goods and creating new ones.

New old friends

Some foreign and Russian sources reported on a possible visit to Russia by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who was supposed to meet with V. Putin and discuss issues of cooperation in the military sphere. But the main purpose of his visit is negotiations with Vladimir Putin on arms supplies. In return, North Korea wants to receive modern technologies for the development of a nuclear submarine fleet.

However, the visit of the North Korean leader was not confirmed.

September 14, 2023
The Russia – Africa Summit: what Moscow has to say

The Russia-Africa Summit, to be held on July 27-28 in St. Petersburg, is supposed to follow the agenda of the previous meeting in 2019 and promote a global dialogue between the countries of the African continent and Moscow. However, the conflict in Ukraine and recent events around it have shifted the focus of the agenda. Apart from plans to look at prospective areas for cooperation, African politicians have prepared a number of questions for the Kremlin. Among them is how long the Russia’s military operation is going to keep affecting the well-being of their countries which are already far enough from being prosperous. Moscow promises to give its partners the necessary clarifications, and in some cases even compensate for the costs.

By holding the first Russia – Africa Summit in 2019, Moscow expected to start long-term and systemic relations with the continent and encouraged African leaders to discuss cooperation in various fields. However, with the international mainstream media accusing Moscow of inspiring the global food crisis and a number of countries breaking the trade and economic relations with Russia, this year the Summit’s main card will be played around the grain deal.

Meanwhile, prior to the meeting in St. Petersburg, Ali al-Moselhi, the Egyptian Minister of Internal Trade and Supply said that Cairo was dissatisfied with Russia’s withdrawal from the deal with the UN on the grain export. Zambian Foreign Minister Stanley Kakubo also expressed concerns, saying that the grain deal was “a lifeline for the most countries in need”, and its termination would result in serious consequences. The Summit participants will likely try to convince Moscow to reconsider its decision and release Ukrainian grain from the Black Sea ports. After all, regardless of potential recipients and volumes of the Ukrainian grain supply, it is important that its presence on the world market contributed to decreasing prices for this product. Russian President Vladimir Putin on his turn assured his African partners that Moscow is able to replace Ukrainian grain either on favorable terms or even at no charge at all since a record high harvest is again expected this year in Russia.

Should Russia keep its promise, this gesture will be far beyond generous. Unprecedented sanctions that have been imposed on Moscow since the start of the military operation in Ukraine and are being tightened with each new package, have also a negative impact not only on Moscow, but on other countries, including Africa. Common trade routes are being frozen, so are most of international transactions which keeps many regions away from lifesaving supplies of food and resources.

One of the decisions could be the case of China. Having built a sustainable economy, Beijing has switched to non-dollar transactions with many countries including Russia. The Russian economy has also demonstrated sustainability and a relative growth despite harsh sanctions and the military operation that requires big costs. By staying independent from external resources and goods it is high time for Moscow to develop new paths for international partnerships.

July 27, 2023
Russia develops long-term ties with UAE and Turkey in a highly polarized world

Russia’s largest economic forum (SPIEF) held in St. Petersburg on June,14 – June, 17 has resulted in strengthening ties with the two strategic partners – the UAE and Turkey.

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, while on a working visit to Russia, held a meeting with Vladimir Putin at the SPIEF.

“I am pleased to be here today with you, your Excellency, and we wish to build on this relationship and we put our trust in you to do so,” Sheikh Mohammed told Putin.

According to Anwar Gargash, the diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, “for the UAE, this is a “calculated risk” it is willing to take, part of the Gulf nation’s policy of de-escalation and dialogue in an increasingly polarized world”.

“This polarization has to be broken”, – he added. “[UAE President] meets a lot of Western leaders, it is also important for him to hear from President Putin to be able also to support the international community’s collective effort, in order to go beyond the current polarization,” Gargash said.

Meanwhile, Alexey Sazanov, Russia’s Finance Minister Deputy, said that Moscow is now seeking new opportunities to strengthen economic and trade ties with UAE, Turkey and Malaysia. Among highly debated issues is a dialogue to make double taxation agreements with these countries more flexible.

At the beginning of 2022, the UAE Ministry of Finance announced the introduction of federal corporate income tax at a rate of 9% from June 1, 2023 for medium and large businesses. For companies with a profit that does not exceed 375,000 dirhams ($102,000) per year, the rate remains zero. The changes also did not affect charitable organizations, investment funds, state corporations and enterprises engaged in the extraction of natural resources.

Meanwhile, Turkey received the Russia’s SPIEF delegation in Istanbul in May, 2023.

During the meeting, SPIEF Director Alexei Valkov, Professor Ahmet Kasim Khan and IC Holding CEO Murad Bayar made presentations, discussed Russian-Turkish economic relations, strategic cooperation and investment opportunities.

“Today, diplomatic and trade relations between Russia and Turkey reflect a long-standing friendship that persists despite the prevailing political circumstances. It is especially worth highlighting the economic potential of Russian-Turkish relations, which represents significant commercial opportunities in the market,” said Professor Ahmet Kasym Khan.

June 18, 2023
Why is Turkey still in NATO?

It is obvious that the Erdogan’s Republic of Türkiye has always played a double game.

epa01389608 French soldiers of NATO\’s International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) patrol Arghandab district, Afghanistan after NATO and Afghan military forces have driven out hundreds of Taliban militants from around restive Kandahar, Afghanistan, 20 June 2008. At least 57 Taliban insurgents were killed and dozens more were wounded as NATO and Afghan forces drove out militants who had recently infiltrated several villages in the southern province of Kandahar, officials said 19 June 2008. EPA/HUMAYOUN SHIAB

A NATO presence but also special relations with Putin’s Russia. It seems that between dictators, we like to stick together …

On September 12, 2017, the Republic of Türkiye signed a contract with Russia for the purchase of S-400 systems for an amount of 2.5 billion dollars with delivery initially scheduled for 2020.

On this occasion, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared, “We alone make decisions that fall under our independence.”

However, NATO, and more particularly the United States, did not see it that way and believed that this decision greatly threatened the Republic of Türkiye’s ties with its Western partners as well as the security of NATO materials.

America then sanctioned the Republic of Türkiye and denied it access to the purchase of American military equipment. The Turks were thus unable to renew their aging F16s with F35s.

However, it is not possible to exclude Erdogan’s Republic of Türkiye because the Republic of Türkiye occupies a strategic position between Europe and Asia. To deprive oneself of Turkey would greatly weaken NATO.

Everyone knows this, and that is why despite all of Erdogan’s eccentricities and the fact that he plays a double game, Turkey will remain in NATO.

Sylvain Saurel’s Newsletter

February 17, 2023