Turkish Forum

Category: Eastern Europe

  • THE GEORGIAN-RUSSIAN CONFLICT THROUGH THE EYES OF BAKU

    THE GEORGIAN-RUSSIAN CONFLICT THROUGH THE EYES OF BAKU

    By Fariz Ismailzade

    Tuesday, August 12, 2008

     

    The escalating conflict in Georgia–with its unexpected military developments and great humanitarian losses–seems to have caught Azerbaijani officials and the public off guard. Azerbaijanis are not new to the world of Russian political games in the Caucasus. Baku itself suffered greatly from Russian intervention in 1990 and after that from the military conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. Yet, the rapid and aggressive style of Russian intervention in Georgia in the past few days has created far greater security and economic dilemmas for Azerbaijan than even the most pessimistic analysts in the country could have predicted only a week ago.

    Russian jet fighters have bombed both civilians and military airports in Georgia, forcing all airlines, including Azerbaijani Airlines (AZAL), to stop flights. Moreover, for several days in a row the Russians bombed the Black Sea port of Poti, which serves as the main terminal for the export of Azerbaijani energy products as well as other cargo. With the explosions on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline last week, Azerbaijan was looking for Georgian railways, ports and pipelines as an important alternative for the export of Caspian energy supplies to Western markets. All of this has stopped, putting both Georgia and Azerbaijan in economic difficulties. Nonetheless, there is little fear in official circles in Baku that Russia will bomb the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and other energy-related infrastructures to destroy the successful East-West transport and energy corridor between Azerbaijan and Georgia.

    Azerbaijan is Georgia’s strategic ally. Both countries are united not only by geopolitical interests and world-class pipelines, but also by the regional security organization GUAM. GUAM, although passive for most of the decade, has lately been re-energized and even played with the idea of establishing its own peacekeeping and security forces. Under such a situation, it seems like GUAM would be a convenient venue to express support and solidarity with the Georgians.

    Azerbaijan, however, finds itself in a very difficult situation. On the one hand, there is enormous public support for Georgia throughout Azerbaijan. In private conversations, almost all Azerbaijanis blame Russia for aggression and express frustration with the imperialist policies of the Kremlin in the South Caucasus. A group of intelligentsia went to the Russian embassy on August 10 to protest against the military actions in Georgia ). This was repeated by members of youth organizations (www.day.az, August 11). The main opposition party Musavat issued a statement on August 11, calling for “respect of the territorial integrity of Georgia and an immediate stop to the aggressive policy of Russia” (Musavat party press release). The party called on the Azerbaijani government to show a “principled position” on the conflict. A similar statement came from the Democratic Party of Azerbaijan.

    For its pro-Georgian coverage of the events, the most popular Azerbaijani news website www.day.az was attacked by Russian special forces on August 11 and had to cease its activities temporarily (www.day.az press release, August 11). Elnur Baimov, the editor in chief of www.day.az said on August 11 that “we all saw the diplomatic loss of Russia.”

    Government officials have been relatively calm about the situation, considering the fragile relations between Moscow and Baku and the desire of the latter not to ruin bilateral relations between the two countries. The spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Khazar Ibrahim told journalists on August 8, however, that “Azerbaijan favors the solution of the South Ossetia conflict based on the territorial integrity of Georgia and Georgian adherence to international law” (www.day.az).

    On August 11, ANS TV reported that 50 Azerbaijanis had gathered in Georgia’s Azerbaijani-populated provinces to go to the war for the defense of their country. It is noteworthy that Russians have bombed Azerbaijani populated areas of Georgia for three days in a row, killing four and wounding dozens. The possibility is not excluded that this was done in hopes of fomenting strife between Azeris and Georgians.

    The present situation in Georgia presents huge security concerns for official Baku. If Russia manages to squeeze Georgia, then it would put an end to the economic independence of Azerbaijan as well. Many analysts in Baku believe that the real purpose of the pressure on Georgia is the Kremlin’s desire to control Azerbaijan.

    Thus, it is vital for Azerbaijan to provide all necessary assistance to its strategic ally. Considering the political realities between Baku and Moscow, it is unlikely that the Azerbaijani government will provide any military assistance to Georgia. Economic and humanitarian assistance, however, is definitely an option. Azerbaijan remains the only viable international outlet for Georgia, and many Georgians have already started using the territory of Azerbaijan to travel abroad.

    Azerbaijani political analysts believe that the war in Georgia is a long-term loss for the Kremlin. By showing its neo-imperialist face, Russia may have lost the Caucasus forever. The political analyst Ilgar Mammadov says that “If Georgia stays strong for few more days, we will all see the defeat of Russia from the Caucasus.” Another analyst Vugar Seidov says “The departure of Russia from Abkhazia and South Ossetia is historically inevitable” (Regnum, August 10).

  • Surreal scenes: Stranded in istanbul

    Surreal scenes: Stranded in istanbul

    By Tom Clifford, Deputy Managing Editor

    Istanbul: It was a surreal moment. At Istanbul’s modern international airport passengers due to board Turkish Airways flight 1382 to Tbilisi were watching their homes burn on TV news.

    Three families from Georgia had been holidaying in Turkey when Gori was attacked and were desperately trying to get back into Georgia even though they knew that returning to Gori was out of the question. Other families had given up trying to get back and decided to extend their stay in Turkey for as long as their money could last.

    “What choice do we have? We want to get back to Georgia but on Saturday we saw the place where we live had been attacked by Russian jets. We want to get to Tbilisi at least but it doesn’t look good,” they told Gulf News.

  • Timeline by 12th of August From the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia

    Timeline by 12th of August From the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia

    12 August

    10:15 Russian planes bombed Gori. The territory around administration building and city market have been bombed.

    In the morning ours of 12 August Russian airplanes bombed the village of Tkviavi near Tskhinvali once again.

    03:25 Russian envoy to the UN Churkin announced on the press conference that Russia will not support the resolution. Georgian envoy Alasania announced that suggested resolution is acceptable to Georgia.

    02:15 Emergency meeting of the Security Council of the UN started. The resolution about cease-fire prepared by France was discussed. (more…)

  • Bush Warns Russia to Reverse Course in Georgia

    Bush Warns Russia to Reverse Course in Georgia

    US President George W. Bush made a statement about the situation in Georgia. Bush is demanding Russia withdraw from Georgia saying that such Russia’s actions are unacceptable in 21st century.

    “Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people, ” said Bush.

    “Russia’s actions this week have raised serious questions about its intentions in Georgia and the region. These actions have substantially damaged Russia’s standing in the world. And these actions jeopardize Russians’ relations — Russia’s relations with the United States and Europe. It is time for Russia to be true to its word and to act to end this crisis,” said US President.

    He said he was “deeply conerned” that Russian troops had moved beyond the zone of conflict.

    “There’s evidence that Russian forces may soon begin bombing the civilian airport in the capital city,” he said. “If these reports are accurate, these Russian actions would represent a dramatic and brutal escalation of the conflict in Georgia. And these actions would be inconsistent with assurances we have received from Russia that its objectives were limited to restoring the status quo in South Ossetia that existed before fighting began on August the 6th,”

    He calls upon Russia to reverse the course and respect Georgia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. He also told Russia to accept the peace agreement.

    “Russia’s government must respect Georgia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. The Russian government must reverse the course it appears to be on, and accept this peace agreement as a first step toward resolving this conflict,” he said.

  • STATEMENT OF THE GOVERNMENT OF GEORGIA

    STATEMENT OF THE GOVERNMENT OF GEORGIA

    Russian occupation forces have already gone beyond the conflict zone. Until recently Russia limited itself to aerial assaults outside of the boundaries of the conflict zone, however, now the Russian forces are attempting to seize the control of entire Georgia.  Russian regular army is located in Zugdidi, Khobi and Senaki. Also, numerous Russian troops moved beyond Tskhinvali region, blocked the major highway and headed towards the capital of Georgia (Tbilisi). All of this happened following Georgian Government’s unilateral declaration of ceasefire, regroupment of Georgian troops outside of the conflict zone and, finally, the signing of the document prepared by Foreign Ministers of Finland, France and Georgia regarding unconditional ceasefire. Until this very moment the Georgian Government was and continues to fulfill the terms of the abovementioned document. Throughout the night and following the unilateral ceasefire, the Russian jets continued the bombardment of capital of Georgia, Tbilisi, and other cities and villages. Only within one night more than 10 assaults have been carried out, which resulted in the damage of civil aviation radar system, civil aviation telecom system, residential buildings, as well as, road infrastructure. Then, Russian “peace keepers”, in violation of their mandate and international standards, entered Zugdidi region, occupied Police and other administrative buildings and started “patrolling” Western part of Georgia. All of the abovementioned, suggests that the Russian actions have nothing to do with the enforcement of peace and that it was all pre-planned strategy aimed at conquering Georgia.

    Today the statehood of Georgia is in great danger, and, thereby, leaving existing world order in uncertainty. We appeal to the world community to stop the Russian aggression and assume the responsibility for the developments in the region.

  • EU diplomats fly out to stop Georgia-Russia war

    EU diplomats fly out to stop Georgia-Russia war

    PHILIPPA RUNNER

    Today @ 11:01 CET

    EU and US diplomats are arriving in Georgia on Saturday (9 August) to try to broker a ceasefire in a fast-escalating conflict between Georgia and Russia, after fighting intensified and spread overnight, with casualties mounting despite international appeals.

    Russian jets have bombed the town of Gori near Tbilisi and oil installations in the southern Georgian port of Poti. Georgia has evacuated government buildings in the capital and president Mikhail Saakashvili has moved to a “safe location,” where he formally asked parliament to impose martial law.

    Meanwhile, Russian tanks and Georgian armour continued to pound each other inside the breakaway Georgian republic of South Ossetia, with both sides making wildly different claims over who controls the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali.

    Georgia says 30 of its men have been killed, while Russia says 15 of its soldiers are dead. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov estimated that over 1,500 people, mostly civilians, have been killed, with Tskhinvali in ruins and refugees streaming north across the Russian border.

    The EU delegation is being led by South Caucasus envoy Peter Semneby, with the US sending its top South Caucasus diplomat, Matthew Bryza. Lithuanian foreign minister Petras Vaitiekunas is also going on a separate, fact-finding mission for the EU.

    The French EU presidency says it has had “multiple contacts” and is “in liaison with all the protagonists” to try and stop the fighting, while EU top diplomat Javier Solana has spoken by phone with the Georgian and Russian foreign ministers.

    Diplomatic solution difficult

    Prospects for a diplomatic solution remain uncertain, however, after a second meeting of the UN security council on Friday failed to agree on a ceasefire resolution, with the US and the UK at odds with Russia on the wording of the text.

    France, Germany, the UK and NATO have all urged an immediate end to hostilities, but steered clear of apportioning blame. The US statement was the most hawkish, “deploring” Russia’s use of bombers and missiles as a “dangerous and disproportionate escalation” and calling for the withdrawal of Russian troops.

    The shooting began on 4 August between Georgia and South Ossetian separatists, in what at first looked like just another skirmish in a so-called “frozen conflict” that dates back to 1991, when South Ossetia began a war of independence during the break-up of the Soviet Union.

    But the rebels kept firing on ethnic Georgian villages in South Ossetia all week. On Friday morning, Georgia launched an offensive to “restore constitutional order” and capture the separatist capital. Hours later, Russia reacted by sending tanks across the Georgian border and ordering air strikes against its small neighbour.

    In the broader context, Russia has long-supported the South Ossetian separatists by smuggling arms, handing out Russian passports and stationing 2,500 Russian “peacekeepers” in South Ossetia, in what Georgia sees as a Russian effort to stop it from joining NATO and to unseat its pro-western government.

    Who is to blame?

    Some analysts are blaming Georgia for the current crisis, saying its attempt to retake Tskhinvali has misjudged the international mood and has destroyed its chances of joining the North Atlantic military alliance.

    “He [president Saakashvili] is in big danger of losing the cachet he built up for himself in being pro-western and the restraint he has often shown in the face of provocation by Russia,” London’s Royal Institute of International Affairs expert, James Nixey, told Reuters.

    “I don’t think he can count on the [US] cavalry riding in,” Brussels’ EU-Russia Centre analyst James Cameron said. “You don’t bring in [to NATO] a country that has this sort of trouble,” RAND Corporation expert and former US ambassador to NATO, Robert Hunter, told Bloomberg.

    European Council on Foreign Relations analyst, Nicu Popescu, said the timing of Georgia’s assault on Tskhinvali – the same day as the opening of the Beijing Olympics – may be significant. “It might be a signal to the Russians saying that the [2014] Sochi Olympics will not go the way Russia wants if there is no progress on the settlement.”

    Geopolitics in play

    Others say the surprise summer war was engineered in Moscow.

    “The goals behind Moscow’s operation are threefold,” Jamestown.org analyst Vladimir Socor explained. “To re-establish the authority of Russian-controlled negotiating and ‘peacekeeping’ formats…to capture Georgian-controlled villages in South Ossetia [and] to dissuade NATO from approving a membership action plan for Georgia.”

    “The Russians want a more direct confrontation with the west and I hope the Bush administration has the wisdom not to give them that satisfaction,” Globalsecurity.org analyst John Pike told newswires.

    “What is being decided here is whether bordering Russia and simultaneously being a US ally is a suicidal combination. Whichever way this works out, the dynamics of the entire region are about to be turned on their head,” Strategic Forecasting Inc said in a flash report.