Turkish Forum

Category: Eastern Europe

  • Azerbaijan Slams Russia Over ‘Armenia Arms Supplies’

    Azerbaijan Slams Russia Over ‘Armenia Arms Supplies’

     

     

     

     

     

    AFP

    Azerbaijan on Thursday made a “strong protest” to Russia over weapons transfers it said Moscow had made to Armenia in violation of United Nations resolutions.

    “The Azerbaijani foreign ministry voices strong protest in connection with the transfer of arms to Armenia and calls on Russia to take all necessary steps to avert the consequences,” the ministry said in a statement.

    On Wednesday Russia’s defense ministry denied Azerbaijani media reports that Moscow had supplied Yerevan with $800 million worth of tanks, armored personnel carriers, rockets, grenade launchers and ammunition via a Russian army base in Armenia, Interfax news agency reported.

    “There have been no supplies of Russian weapons to Armenia. The reports alleging this are untrue,” Russian defense ministry spokesman Alexander Drobyshevsky said.

    Azerbaijan said the alleged weapons transfers violated UN resolutions aimed at preventing a renewal of the conflict over Nagorny Karabakh, where Armenia-backed separatists wrested control from Azerbaijan’s authorities in a war after the 1991 Soviet collapse.

    “The transfer of weapons serves to strengthen the military potential of Armenia, which has occupied a part of Azerbaijani territory,” the Azerbaijani ministry said.

  • A New Russia Upon a Hill

    A New Russia Upon a Hill

    By Igor Panarin

    The United States, which is at the epicenter of the global financial tsunami, will suffer the most damage in 2009. In a worst-case scenario that has a roughly 50 percent chance of coming true, the dollar and the entire U.S. economy will crash by November. As a result, the country’s dire political and economic problems could lead to fierce competition between the states in which wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and threaten secession and civil war. This in turn could lead to disintegration of the country into six parts by the summer of 2010 as the leading foreign powers take their pieces of the fallen giant. Under this scenario, California and six western states would fall under Chinese influence; Alaska would go to Russia; Hawaii would go to Japan or China; 15 states in the Midwest and Great Plains would be under Canadian influence; Texas and eight other southern states would be under Mexican influence; and the eastern seaboard states might join the European Union.

    Russia must take advantage of the U.S. crisis by expanding its influence and power both domestically and globally in the following areas:

    •Pacific Doctrine

    Russia needs regions that can produce breakthrough technological innovations, and Primorye is a leading candidate to fulfill this role. While preserving its military and political importance, Primorye should become a powerful financial and economic outpost in the Asia-Pacific region in the 21st century. By 2012, it can and should become one of the main centers of international business activity, a hub for investment and innovation.

    The political future of Russia’s leaders, as well as its ability to become a leader in innovation, will largely depend on whether Primorye’s political elite can — with Kremlin support — adapt to the reality of world politics.

    This primarily means supporting the concept of a fifth “I” — intellect — in addition to President Dmitry Medvedev’s four I’s of institutions, infrastructure, investment and innovation. This would entail developing a partnership between government and the private sector that will ensure Russia’s position as a world leader.

    •Former Soviet Republics

    A U.S. collapse would lead to a political and military vacuum among former U.S. allies in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia. Russia should declare its intention to return to the foreign policies of Catherine the Great.

    •The Middle East

    Russia should start by building a strategic partnership with Turkey, which supported Russia in its war with Georgia in August. Russia should take over all of the former U.S. military bases on Turkish territory. In addition, Russia should take full advantage of the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan by deploying forces from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to provide peace and stability.

    •South Asia

    Russia should try to become the main arbiter in the dispute between India and Pakistan. It would also make sense to include Iran and China in the settlement process.

    •South America and the Caribbean

    Moscow should focus on strengthening its ties and influence in Brazil, Venezuela and Cuba. Russia should direct colossal economic and military resources to those three countries.

    The year 2010 should see the re-establishment of Russia’s radar station at Lourdes in Cuba that Moscow abandoned in 2001 with 750 technicians and 2,000 troops. At a December meeting of leaders from 33 South American states — which was held without the participation of the United States for the first time — Mexican President Felipe Calderon proposed creating an organization called the Union of South American and Caribbean Basin States that would facilitate political and economic change on the continent. If such an organization is established, Russia should strive to become a strategic economic and informational-ideological partner.

    By expanding its influence in the above areas, Russia can integrate Eurasia and strengthen its political, economic and military influence in the world. The U.S. decline offers Russia a golden opportunity to replace the United States as the world’s leading superpower.

    Igor Panarin, former analyst with the KGB, is dean of the international relations department at the Foreign Ministry’s Diplomatic Academy.

    Monday, January 12, 2009
    Updated at 12 January 2009 1:39 Moscow Time.

  • Armenia denies receiving $800 mln worth of Russian arms

    Armenia denies receiving $800 mln worth of Russian arms

     

       

     
     
     

    YEREVAN, January 12 (RIA Novosti) – Armenia’s Defense Ministry on Monday denied a report from Baku alleging that Russian arms had been handed over to Yerevan.

    Azerbaijani media previously reported that arms worth a total of $800 million had been transferred to Armenia from a Russian military base in the country.

    “That is yet another piece of disinformation by Azerbaijani propaganda. I don’t think there is a need to comment on it,” said the Armenian defense minister’s press secretary, Col. Seiran Shakhsuvaryan.

    Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry said earlier on Monday that it was studying the report.

    “As soon as the necessary information is obtained, the Foreign Ministry will formulate its position,” said Elkhan Polukhov, first secretary of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry.

    Relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia became strained when Nagorny Karabakh, a region in Azerbaijan with a largely Armenian population, declared its independence from Azerbaijan to join Armenia in 1988. The enclave has been a source of conflict ever since.

  • Heydar Jamal: “Like Russia US-Israeli tandem is absolutely not interested in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict”

    Heydar Jamal: “Like Russia US-Israeli tandem is absolutely not interested in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict”

    Today Russia is the main obstacle on the way to the resolution of the situation in the South Caucasus, said famous Russian political scientist and chairman of the Islamic Committee of Russia Heydar Jamal, speaking about the supply of arms to Armenia by Russia free of charge. He said if not for Moscow the Karabakh conflict could have been settled long ago.

    (more…)

  • Kazan Institute Seeks to Link Tatarstan to the World

    Kazan Institute Seeks to Link Tatarstan to the World

    Paul Goble

    Vienna, January 7 – The Center for Eurasian and International Research of Kazan State University provides a brain trust for the leadership of Tatarstan in its efforts to develop ties with foreign countries in much the same way that several research centers in Ukraine did before that republic gained its independence.
    In an interview posted on the Islamrt.ru site, the center’s director Bulat Yagudin describes what he calls “the only scientific research center in Tatarstan” which focuses on foreign policy issues in general and those across the Eurasian landmass in particular (www.islamrt.ru/htm/interv_yagudin.htm).
    (Because the word “Eurasian” in the institute’s name might lead some to think that it is associated with either classical Eurasianism or the neo-Eurasianism of Aleksandr Dugin, Yagudin hastens to say that is not the case and that researchers at his institute has no specific ideological agenda.)
    The center’s goal, Yagudin says, is to be an interdisciplinary institute where researchers will be able to provide broad assessments f social, economic and political phenomena across Eurasia and thereby be in a position to help the peoples and governments of these regions find “adequate paths for the resolution of problems.”
    To that end, he continues, the center “does not avoid cooperation with politicians, political scientists, religious activists and even charlatans,” a commitment that “requires much time and effort” but one that reflects “the principle of openness” on which the center was founded two years ago.
    The center earns its own way by doing contract research and transfers up to 40 percent of its earning to the university. But what is particularly important, Yagudin continues, is that the center provides “young specialists, graduate students, and even volunteers” of various kinds with the change to work “for the well-being of the entire republic.”
    The center already has an active program of publications and conferences. It launched a newspaper, “Eurasian Horizons,” last year and has now converted it into a monthly publication. In addition, it publishes a journal, “Eurasian Research,” a yearbook, “The Year in Eurasia,” and occasional papers.
    And Yagudin listed the following upcoming conferences: Later this month, the center plans a symposium on Tatarstan in 2008. In February, it will host on Islamic Studies in Post-Soviet Russia and the CIS. In March, it will be the venue for a meeting on the Caspian Region. And in July, it will host a forum on Geopolitics and Economics in Eurasia Today.
    As is often the case with new institutions, the Kazan Center reflects the personality and experience of its organizer. Born in Kazakhstan in 1957, Yagudin grew up in the Fergana valley, studied in a German language school, and served in the Soviet army in Ukraine, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
    Subsequently, he studied at the historical faculty of the Fergana State Pedagogical Institute. There he worked with the internationally known David Achildiyev, an Afghanist who later moved to the United States, where he published a highly regarded two-volume history of the Jews of Bukhara.
    With the collapse of the USSR, Yagudin, like many other members of the Tatar diaspora in the former Soviet space, returned to Tatarstan in order to support his nation. And on arrival, he became a graduate student at the historical faculty of Kazan State University, from which he graduated in 1992. Since that time, he has taught courses there on Africa and Asia.
    Yagudin is much less well-known abroad than many other scholars in Kazan, but his aspirations for his institute and his ability both to raise funds and organize publications and conferences suggest that he and his center are going to be increasingly important players in Kazan’s growing efforts to reach out to the broader world.

    http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2009/01/window-on-eurasia-kazan-institute-seeks.html

  • “We Will Not Let Our People Go Cold,” Says Turkish Energy Minister

    “We Will Not Let Our People Go Cold,” Says Turkish Energy Minister

    “We Will Not Let Our People Go Cold,” Says Turkish Energy Minister

    Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 6 Issue: 4
    January 8, 2009 04:20 PM
    By: Saban Kardas

    The dispute between Russia and Ukraine over natural gas prices continues to threaten the energy supply to Europe in the midst of plunging temperatures (EDM, January 5). The disruptions caused by the row between the Russian gas company Gazprom and Ukraine’s Naftohaz has already led to the halting of deliveries to many European countries that are dependent on Russian gas. Amid mutual accusations and contradictory claims by both parties, several European leaders and European Union officials have asked those involved to relax tensions (BBC News, January 7).

    As a country that depends heavily on natural gas for electricity production and household heating, Turkey is also discussing the implications of the crisis. Turkey’s gas imports from Russia amount to 65 percent of its total needs of 135 million cubic meters (MCM) per day. Turkey imports 40 MCM of gas from Russia a day via the West pipeline passing through Ukraine and Bulgaria and another 35 MCM through the Blue Stream pipeline underneath the Black Sea. Turkey also imports around 15 MCM of gas from Iran and 17 MCM from Azerbaijan per day. The state-owned Petroleum Pipeline Corporation (BOTAS) has signed various contracts to secure the import of the following amounts annually: 16 billion cubic meters (BCM) via Blue Stream, 14 BCM through the West pipeline, 10 BCM from Iran, and 6.6 BCM from Azerbaijan. Moreover, BOTAS has also signed agreements with Nigeria and Algeria for 1.2 BCM and 4 BCM, respectively, of liquefied natural gas (LNG) (Cumhuriyet, January 7).

    The International Energy Agency (IEA) maintains that if the gas supply and winter conditions remain unchanged, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, and Greece may face problems (www.ntvmsnbc.com.tr, January7). Since Turkey already confronted a similar crisis in 2006, it has had greater experience in learning how to deal with these types of shortages.

    At the beginning of the crisis, representatives from BOTAS and the Energy Ministry announced that the Ukrainian crisis was not affecting Turkey and the gas flow from both West line and Blue Stream, as well as from Iran, was continuing. They also noted that Turkey did not expect a cutoff in the West line but that there were contingency plans in case this did happen. BOTAS officials noted that the underground tanks were full and Turkey could increase the capacity of Blue Stream up to 50 MCM by activating a compressor station in Corum (www.ntvmsnbc.com.tr, January 2).

    When the news about Russia’s decision to cut off gas to Ukraine arrived, Energy Minister Hilmi Guler told reporters that gas supplies from the West pipeline had been completely halted. Guler also noted that the gas supplies from Blue Stream would soon be increased to 48 MCM per day. He assured the Turkish public, “We will not let our people go cold” (Anadolu Ajansi, January 6).

    Guler announced that Turkey had already started to implement some precautions. First, the ministry asked the power stations producing electricity from natural gas to switch to secondary fuels. Although Reuters reported that in three stations electricity production had been halted (Hurriyet Daily News, January 8), energy officials have denied these claims, saying that production was continuing normally (Cihan Haber Ajansi, January 8).

    Moreover, if the supply shortages continue, the ministry plans to cut gas delivery to industrial facilities producing their own electricity from natural gas that is sold at subsidized prices. Since falling industrial production due to the global economic crisis has already reduced Turkey’s energy consumption, such reductions would probably not create major power supply problems. Nonetheless, experts note that using alternative sources such as fuel oil to produce electricity is likely to increase production costs by up to 20 percent (www.ntvmsnbc.com.tr, January 7).

    Furthermore, like other countries, Turkey has started tapping strategic reserves and using LNG. Guler noted that six ships were scheduled to bring additional LNG in January; and, if need arose, Turkey would seek additional deliveries. According to official sources, if deliveries arrive as scheduled, Turkey will be unlikely to experience major shortages. At the same time, Turkey is working to expand the daily supply capacity of its underground reserve depots.

    A source from the Iranian Embassy in Ankara said that Iran was ready to increase its gas exports to Turkey to offset the shortfall, as long as Iran’s domestic consumption did not prevent it (Today’s Zaman, January 7). Minister Guler said, however, that additional supplies from Blue Stream would be enough to maintain the supply balance and that Turkey would not take up the Iranian offer. Last winter, when Iran cut exports to Turkey due to its own domestic needs, Gazprom helped avoid shortages by increasing its supplies to Turkey. Given this experience, Turkey’s reluctance to rely on the Iranian option is understandable.

    Overall, the goal of these measures is to reduce the impact of the crisis on households. Since major metropolitan areas rely on natural gas for heating, the public has become increasingly worried about these developments. In response to this concern, the IGDAS gas distribution company in Istanbul issued a statement maintaining that the gas and LNG depots supplying the city had sufficient reserves and that there were no grounds for anxiety about shortages in Istanbul (www.nethaber.com, January 6). The precautions in place have already reduced Turkey’s daily consumption from 130 MCM to 107 MCM (www.cnnturk.com, January 7).

    Despite the optimistic statements from official sources, energy expert Necdet Pamir maintains that Turkey’s reserve capacity is too limited, which makes it vulnerable to such supply shocks. Moreover, Pamir notes that switching to secondary sources for electricity production by buying LNG on spot markets incurs additional costs (www.cnnturk.com, January 7). Some experts claim, however, that under the contract between Turkey and Russia, Gazprom will have to compensate Turkey for its losses (Cihan Haber Ajansi, January 6).

    Other experts refer to the positive implications of the crisis for Turkey. Bahadir Kaleagasi, the Turkish Industry and Business Association Representative to the EU, notes that the row once again demonstrates the vulnerability of Europe’s energy supplies. The EU will come under pressure to diversify transportation routes, which will strengthen Turkey’s position in negotiations over the Nabucco project for supplying Europe with gas by means of pipelines going through Turkey (ANKA, January 7).

    https://jamestown.org/program/we-will-not-let-our-people-go-cold-says-turkish-energy-minister/