Category: Azerbaijan

Election Process in Nagorno Karabakh

After the collapse of Soviet Union there was unsolved problem of Caucasus which is named Nagorno Karabakh. In the date of May 23, 2010 very important progress has been experienced in Karabakh. Seperatist government of Karabakh realised an election which is not accepted by governments and international organizations because of giving message of it is an independent government. It was the fifth election since 1993 and 4 party and 45 candidate was competed for 33 chairs and Free Motherland Party has performed to the leadership. The election which is involved of 70 percent of Karabakh public has born big discussions in a few time.

Arayik Harutyunyan which is the Prime Minister of de-facto Karabakh government is still maintaining leadership of Free Motherland Party. Karabakh Democratic Party, Karabakh Communist Party and Armenian Revolutionist Federation are the other parties which involved to these elections. Free Motherland Party has taken approximately 50 percent of votes and there was more than 100 international observers in these elections.

Seperatist regime in Karabakh caused a new paradox especially in Minsk Group’s peace progress. Nagorno Karabakh is actually in the land of Azebaijan but it is occupied bu Armenia without any law suitable to intenational law and now it is making election as it is independent government this was took a hard response from international community. Approaching of Azerbaijani community in Karabakh to this election was firstly occupiers must leave Karabakh and Azerbaijani community must return to their land, Azerbaijani and Armenian people must leave together with a new order. After these conditions provided then any election can be legitamate. Any election without these points would be the continous of unlawful status. If subject is critised with Madrid Principles which is the last point of Minsk Process Armenian one sided attitude in peace process. After the elections Armenian Minister of Foreign Affairs Edvard Nalbandyan declared that elections were free and democratic and it had created a legitimate government. He said many independent observes had been in elections. And international community has to have good relationships with new government if they wants the problems solved. Bako Sahakyan who is President of seperatist Karabakh government said that elections were independently and independency of Karabakh has to be recognised and people of Karabakh choices has to be respected.

At the point reached in this situation Turkey, Azerbaijan and Russia and international organizations in many countries of the Minsk Group declared elections have no legal basis and neither side expressed concern. Azerbaijan has condemned the situation with a sharp tongue and wanted to show the same reaction from the United Nations. OSCE (European Security and Cooperation Organization), United Nations, European Union, the United States and Russia underlined that choices do not solve the problem, contrary it would cause to continue stated problem.(1) The parties that emphasized current trend must continue and for ensuring legitimacy Madrid Principles have to be accepted by Armenia.

According to the recommedations in full text in Madrid Principles created in 2007 and presented in last year so far many problems have to be solved and agreement for Karabakh’s new status have to be reached. Realisation of substances in recommendations has become more difficult because of final steps of Armenia.

Recommendations to the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia:

1. Until the elections which will be held in 2008, consists of the following principles must be tailored to the bill:

a. The location of the security and international peace-keeping force must be guaranteed.

b. Armed forces of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, Lachin Kelbajar and especially around the occupied Nagorno-Karabakh must leave the entire land.

c. Forced immigrants must return to their lands .

d. Current status of Nagorno Karabakh should be determined by the voting system, and until that its temporary status should be designated and, all traffic and trade routes should be opened

2. All shares are being agreed for the controversial section should be indicated.

3. With elections to be held in 2008 in the campaign appropriate environment should be prepared to political leaders to create positive atmosphere for peace and tranquility.

Recommendations for Armenia, Azerbaijan and de-facto government Nagorno-Karabakh

4. Sides should act in accordance with the cease-fire signed in 1994. Should leave the show of force, to increase their defense budgets, the mutual accusations, agitations and drive away from peace statements should be left.

5. Diplomacy outside activities, including the above principles have been agreed at talks about the decision should continue. Even countries councils should be encouraged to do the negotiations and relations between Azerbaijanis and Armenians should try to strengthen.

6. Nagorno-Karabakh’s de-facto administration should put an end to the to be placed on the Armenians in the occupied land , to the continuation of privatization activities in the region, the creation of new building space, to the construction of local buildings.

7. Azerbaijan Nagorno should recognise the possibility Azerbaijani leaders to select their own community should recognize the possibility of oil revenues to benefit all citizens and immigrants to increase transparency and reduce corruption in the trials should be done. (2)

Many of the issues, Armenia’s “rejection of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan” could not be applied over because of Armenia’s “rejection of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan”. Time to time, Armenia use it put forward in the country fear mood to impress international community and the world public opinion should recognize Karabakh as an independent state.

New Approaches of Regional Powers

Elections have been held in Karabakh since 1993, lack of response as big as this because there is no positive state before 2000. But in the reached point Armenia’s passive-Karabakh policy stopped peace negotiations to accelerate, the Minsk Group to the region continuously for the loss of visits to perform. By following this policy in Bishkek Protocol, 1994 Management and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh problem has managed to pass to the official notes that Armenia has been pursuing the same policy in the new era. If the last review in 2009 will be seen that the rhetoric, stating that Azerbaijan has always followed an aggressive policy to Armenia, the situation does not continue in their favor they would recognize Karabakh as an independent state has indicated.

In 2010 Turkey, Russia and the U.S. about the growing activities impress Armenia to new conditions. Igor Popov told the Russian Co-chairman of the Minsk Group, Russia’s active policy in solving the problem in this country will follow soon matter stated. Again, after elections in the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko, Karabakh in any way they don’t recognise Karabakh as an independent state and they respect to integrity of Azerbaijan and that the Karabakh problem should be resolved in this framework stated.(3) Turkey, aim at develop the relations with Armenia prerequisite to emphasize reiterating the urgent need to solve the Karabakh issue and the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan guarantee is not broken by any power. They think to bring Turkey to Co-chairman status to Minsk Group and give very active part to Turkey to solve this problem. After a long break while the U.S. ambassador to Baku was appointed as the Minsk Group Matthew Bryza of the United States has made a Co-chairman. Karabakh in particular the U.S usually in the Caucasus policy, the new expansions will be performed in the new era of Armenia’s stance will be shaped by the U.S. and other countries.

Armenia may be exposed to various pressures because of attitude in the new era may be exposed to various pressures and position themselves in the region will open to outside intervention can make out. In this issue of Turkey in Turkish-Armenian relations towards Karabakh any objection to the requirement did not matter. Regardless of the region as a unilateral world needs to accept that indicates that Armenia will take steps soon again will be determined by the attitude of the international community. Follow-driven politics since independence, Armenia, because of the Russian new attitude it can not see the hope. The increasing U.S. influence in Azerbaijan, with its headquarters location becomes more difficult for Armenia, the adoption of the principles can be subjected to the pressure on the inside. The economic problems of the Armenian people living today, the social crisis brought and vast majority of people do not give importance about the Karabakh issue as they has in the past.

Mehmet Fatih ÖZTARSU – Institute of Strategic Thinking

http://sde.org.tr/

(1) ATET Dağlıq Qarabağda Keçirilen Seçkini Tanımır, ,

(2) Mehmet Fatih Öztarsu, Madrid Prensipleri ve Karabağ Görüşmeleri, Stratejik Düşünce Enstitüsü, ,

(3) Panorama Armenia, https://www.panorama.am/en/news/2010/05/24/rf-mid-nkr/1103483

June 4, 2010
Turkey Prioritizes Independent Regional Policies in the Middle East and the South Caucasus

Turkey Prioritizes Independent Regional Policies in the Middle East and the South Caucasus

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 7 Issue: 105

June 1, 2010

By: Saban Kardas

Turkey continued its regional diplomacy, following the historic visit by Russian President Medvedev to Ankara (EDM, May 20). Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan paid back-to-back trips to Greece, Iran and Azerbaijan, which underscored Turkey’s rising activism in its neighborhood, as well as highlighting divergence with the United States.

The most controversial development was the deal Turkey brokered jointly with Brazil regarding the Iranian nuclear issue. Building on the groundwork laid by their foreign ministers, Turkish and Brazilian leaders convinced their Iranian counterpart to agree on a proposal made earlier by the international community, under which it would swap its low-enriched uranium with enriched rods for a medical research reactor. The exchange will take place in Turkey.

Turkey portrayed the agreement as a historic achievement that would end the stalemate over Iran’s nuclear program, and bring peace to the Middle East, emphasizing that Iran agreed to sign a document stipulating concrete obligations (www.cnnturk.com, May 17). However, the reactions to the deal from the United States and Western powers put Turkey in a rather controversial position rather than to earn the sort of praise it was anticipating. Since the deal came amidst news that the United States succeeded in getting other permanent members of the UN Security Council agree on new sanctions, this development increasingly pit Ankara and Washington against each other.

From an American perspective, the deal was not satisfactory because Iran agreed to the conditions proposed back in October 2009 while it did not commit to end its nuclear program. In particular it is emphasized that while the amount of fuel Iran agrees to return, 1,200 kilograms, was significant at the time it was first proposed, since then Iran is likely to have expanded its stockpile of enriched uranium, which is not under inspection. Turkish Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, remained defiant. Arguing that the United States was kept informed about the negotiations with Iran, Davutoglu contended that Iran’s promises were satisfactory and should be the basis of efforts to solve the diplomatic standoff (Today’s Zaman, May 20). Meanwhile, a recent development somehow adds credibility to Turkey’s arguments. Reportedly, Obama sent a letter to Brazilian President in April wherein he urged him to pursue the efforts to convince Iran to accept the exchange the 1,200 kilograms of uranium on Turkish territory, though noting that the US would also pursue the sanctions path (letter available at:www.politicaexterna.com/archives/11023.

Amid statements coming from the United States and other powers that concerns over Iran’s nuclear program did not disappear, Erdogan sought to mobilize the international community behind the deal with Iran. He telephoned President Barack Obama, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and many other leaders, as well as sending letters to many others, asking them to prevent sanctions against Iran and give diplomacy a chance. Although Obama appreciated Turkish efforts, he underlined that they would expect to see Iran’s interpretation of the deal, and kept the option for sanctions open (Anadolu Ajansi, May 20, May 22).

Iran sent a letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Monday explaining the deal brokered by Turkey and Brazil in detail. As anticipated, while the United States did not find Iran’s commitments satisfactory, Turkey insisted on its earlier position. Meanwhile, Erdogan started his historic tour of South America. Speaking in Brazil, he reiterated in strong words that the deal brokered by Brazil and Turkey was a historical breakthrough, and they would continue to work toward a nuclear free world (www.haberturk.com, May 28).

The challenges posed by Iran’s nuclear program are unlikely to subdue, as Iran remains committed to continue with its program. Turkey’s policy so far demonstrates that it is increasingly self-confident in undertaking foreign policy initiatives in its region and toward that end it could even risk confrontation with the United States. Especially the fact that Turkey went ahead with these efforts despite the news about a new draft UN Security Council being prepared is worth mentioning here. Turkey has made clear on many occasions that it would not approve tougher measures against Iran considering the negative repercussions of such a move (EDM, March 20). Reiterating this position on several regional and international platforms, Davutoglu invested much of his time on this issue over the last couple of months, as he and his team held numerous meetings with their Iranian counterparts to find a negotiated solution. Therefore, Turkish leaders would not like to see all their efforts go in vain as a result of a new round of sanctions, which would pose a serious blow to their credibility in the region and at home.

Overall, the Turkish leaders seem to assume good will on Iran’s part and do not seriously consider the possibility that Iran might be manipulating their willingness to mediate in this crisis to undermine the quasi-coalition the United States has delicately managed to form. Given Iran’s track record, the United States is increasingly concerned that Iran might not be acting in good faith and is using such last-minute deals to avoid tougher reactions (Today’s Zaman, May 24). Given these conflict interpretations of Iran’s nuclear program, we might observe growing divergence of opinions between Ankara and Washington.

Erdogan also paid a visit to Baku and Tbilisi, following his trip to Tehran, which also underscored another dimension of Ankara’s regional policies, conducted independently of Washington’s priorities. After the normalization with Armenia, which was promoted by Washington, hit an apparent deadlock, Erdogan’s trip to Baku served as yet another affirmation of Ankara’s determination to keep Baku at the center of its Caucasus policy. Erdogan reiterated support for the Azeri position on Karabakh, which seemed to go a long way toward repairing the damage caused by Turkey’s efforts to achieve a rapprochement with Armenia.

As a concrete indication of such a thaw, it is expected that Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev will visit Turkey in early June. Aliyev had avoided visiting Turkey in apparent protest of Turkish-Armenian normalization and Turkey’s position on the natural gas negotiations (EDM, October 21, 2009). A deal recently reached between the two countries would bring an end to the negotiations concerning the price for Turkey’s purchases from Azerbaijan and conditions for the passage of Azeri gas to Europe through Turkish territory. Although the agreement was expected to be signed during Erdogan’s visit, it is postponed for Aliyev’s visit by which time the two parties will also finalize the remaining details. While saying that they “will crown the agreement during Mr. President’s visit,” Erdogan perhaps expressed how much he attaches significance to Aliyev’s upcoming trip (Hurriyet, May 17).

June 4, 2010
Press release of the Embassy of Azerbaijan

From: [email protected]

Embassy of the Republic of Azerbaijan

PRESS-RELEASE

May 17, 2010 No. 5

STATEMENT OF THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS

OF THE REPUBLIC OF AZERBAIJAN

According to the reports circulated by the mass media outlets of the Republic of Armenia so-called “parliament elections” are being arranged to take place in the Nagorno-Karabakh region of the Republic of Azerbaijan on 23 May, 2010.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Azerbaijan reiterates in this regard that the unrecognized separatist regime in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan represents nothing but an illegal structure established by Armenia on the basis of ethnic cleansing of Azerbaijani population. The so-called “elections” are conducted in order to camouflage the annexation policy of Armenia and are aimed at consolidation of the results of the continued occupation of the Azerbaijani territories.

Conduct of such “elections” gravely violates the relevant provisions of the Constitution of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the norms and principles of international law, since they are held in absence of the original Azerbaijani population of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and therefore shall have no legal effect whatsoever.

Any kind of elections in the Nagorno-Karabakh region of the Republic of Azerbaijan may be recognized as fair and free once the expelled Azerbaijani population takes full, direct and equal part in their conduct in lawful and democratic environment equally to the Armenian population of the region. Holding such elections will be possible after the withdrawal of the Armenian occupying forces, normalization of the life in the region, creation of necessary conditions for restoration of the dialogue and cooperation between the Armenian and Azerbaijani communities of Nagorno-Karabakh. These steps will open up possibility for the elaboration of the self-rule status for the Nagorno-Karabakh population within Azerbaijan.

The Republic of Azerbaijan calls upon the Armenian side to stop its destructive practice of illegal steps, which does not have any prospects, and instead to demonstrate a good will and take a constructive position in the negotiation process, which has dynamically evolved through the last year, in order to find a soonest and durable solution to the conflict on the basis of the norms and principles of international law.

Baku, May 14, 2010

275 Slater Street, Suite 904. Ottawa ON K1P 5H9 Canada Tel: (613) 288 0497 Fax: (613) 230 8089

E-Mail: [email protected]

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May 21, 2010
ARMENIAN ATTROCITIES UPON OTTOMAN MOSLEMS

By Erkan Esmer, Ph.D., Prof. Engineer

Armenians prospered greatly under the protection of Ottoman Turks. They were dubbed as the “Loyal Tribe” by the Ottoman Sultans. The Ottomans were late in accepting the Industrial Revolution. They preferred to stay as soldiers, farmers, and bureaucrats as was fashionable at the feudal era. They left the services, trade, banking, and industrial production to their Christian subjects (Greeks and armenians) who were a small segment of the population in Anatolia (Asia Minor). This made them very wealthy and powerful. Russian General Maievski’s 1890 map is presented in Figure 1 in the ensuing page, clearly shows that they were a small minority. Of course, the Russians naturally would inflate the Greek and armenian populations within the empire, because they had invented the so called “Eastern Problem”. They under the pretext of protection of Christian Ottoman citizens, vied for conquest of Ottoman lands.

When Russians attacked the Ottomans in 1877, they along with concurrence of European powers established Principality of Bulgaria. They advised the armenians that they could establish their own country in Eastern Anatolia. I doubt that they would ever allow them to have their own country. They had no intensions to do so, but wanted to use the armenians. Czarist Russia along with the help of American missionaries armed the armenians all over Anatolia. These terrorist forces were stationed all over the Turkish mainland. {Fig. 2-15} These above mentioned facts are confirmed by August 23, 1895 New York Times article. They were united under the command of armenian terrorist groups Dashnaks and Hunchaks. The armenians’ barbaric atrocities and heinous crimes upon the Moslems were unspeakable. {Fig. 16-29} These massacres naturally angered the authorities and Moslem population who defended themselves. They knew that this would bring the wrath of European powers (super powers of the era), because Europeans wanted to dismember the Ottoman Empire for its fertile land, valuable mineral and oil resources (Iraq, Saudi Oil Fields). They finally achieved this goal at the end of World War I.

During World War I, all of Turkish and Moslem young men were not home, but were fighting for their homeland in many different fronts. Only Women, children, and old Men lived in Ottoman Anatolian provinces, then. All of them were unarmed!!! Many of the armenians who were inducted into Ottoman forces, ran away with their weapons. The armenian cowards butchered these unarmed civilians. They acted as scouts/vanguards for the Russian forces. They ambushed Ottoman forces, cut down the telegraph lines, which caused a lot of havoc at the time. The Ottoman government had to relocate them from the war zone to provinces where there were no fighting with the means available to them at the time. {Fig. 30-33}. Many armenians migrated to other countries such as USA, France, and England, enhancing their lives tremendously. Since this barbaric tribe of armenians left the corpses of Moslems rot in open air, since they drowned them in wells, or threw the corpses in creeks or rivers, this caused a severe cholera epidemic which took many lives, including their own. Even though armenians and Russians massacred about 2,500,000 Moslems, where as, armenian losses were between 36,000 and 125,000, this is the so-called “ARMENIAN GENOCIDE”.

“Photographs are from Turkish Armed Forces archives or my own post card collection”

May 8, 2010
Newsletter of the Embassy of Azerbaijan

N E W S L E T T E R Embassy of the Republic of Azerbaijan 275 Slater Street, Suite 904. Ottawa ON K1P 5H9 CanadaTel: (613) 288 0497 Fax: (613) 230 8089E-Mail: [email protected]

President Aliyev on Military Build-Up

Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan held a meeting on building-up of the army at the Defense Ministry on April. President Aliyev said that building up the armed forces has always been in spotlight. “It is a main issue for us because Azerbaijan territories have been under occupation for many years,” said the Head of State, adding that Azerbaijan’s intensively beefing up its military comes from the need. President Aliyev noted that Armenia’s and its supporters’ invasion of Azerbaijani lands was accompanied by brutalities. “Khojaly genocide is a striking example of this. Armenia grossly violates all legal norms”. Though the UN Security Council adopted four resolutions on the liberation of occupied Azerbaijani lands, Armenia did not fulfill these decisions. The Azerbaijani leader noted that the updated Madrid principles could be a basis for preparation of final proposals. President Aliyev pointed out that Armenia does not want to leave occupied lands as it drags out peace talks. “Our biggest compromise is that Azerbaijan has been committed to the peace process for 20 years,” he said. According to the President, the international community must respect its own decisions and no problem can be solved in the region without resolution of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, as the conflict seriously affects the whole region.

Azerbaijan Signed Protocol with Georgia on WTO Admission

Georgia and Azerbaijan signed a protocol on bilateral negotiations on admission of goods and services of two countries to the markets within the framework of Azerbaijan’s joining the World Trade Organization (WTO).The protocol was signed by Mr. Zurab Pololikashvili Georgian Economic Minister and Mr. Shahin Mustafayev Azerbaijani Minister of Economic Development. The two sides expressed confidence that working out of the protocol will give a new impetus to the intensification of trade relations between the two countries. The Georgian-Azerbaijani business forum was also held during the Azerbaijani delegation’s visit. Since 1997, Azerbaijan has been represented at the World Trade Organization as an observer. At present, negotiations have been completed and protocols signed with Turkey, the Sultanate of Oman, United Arab Emirates and Georgia. The country is on the stage of signing the protocol with Moldova and Kyrgyzstan. Azerbaijan also carries negotiations with the United States, Japan, Brazil, Ecuador, Sri Lanka, European Union, Norway, India, South Korea, and Switzerland.

Azerbaijan and Turkey Agreed on Gas

According to Mr. Natiq Aliyev, Minister of Industry and Energy the talks on gas prices between Azerbaijan and Turkey have been completed. Mr. Aliyev pointed out that an agreement between the countries will be signed soon. The Minister said that Azerbaijani companies (about 500 in Turkey) increased their investments into Turkey’s economy. The European Union welcomes Azerbaijan-Turkey agreement on gas transportation, said Mr. Guenther Oettinger, EU Energy Commissioner. “Turkey and Azerbaijan are our indispensable partners for the realization of the Southern Corridor. This agreement between such two important partners opens the way for a strategic allocation of gas that will underpin the Southern Corridor and provide energy security to Turkey and the EU”. Under the current contract, Turkey must receive 6.6 billion cubic meters of gas from Shah Deniz in the first stage of the field’s development. Shah Deniz reserves are estimated at 1.2 trillion cubic meters. The contract to develop the offshore Shah Deniz field was signed on June 4, 1996 and included: BP (operator), Statoil Hydro, NICO, Total, LukAgip, TPAO, and SOCAR.

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May 8, 2010
Ankara-Yerevan Accords Point toward Armenia’s Withdrawal from the Occupied Territories

foto -geography.about.com

Gulnara Inandzh
Director
International Online Information Analytic Center Ethnoglobus
The emotions, whipped up by commentaries which followed the signing on October 10 of the protocols between Turkey and Armenia, have prevented a logical analysis of the situation. In order to begin such an analysis, we need to recognize that at the roots of the signing of these accords lie a multi-sided game of significance far beyond the South Caucasus region.

If at the outset, the opening of the borders with Armenia was one of the conditions on Turkey’s path toward joining the European Union, then at the present time, the rapprochement of the two countries depends on the geopolitical situation and Ankara’s participation in these processes. Immediately after the signing of the Turkish-Armenian accords, as one should have expected, the EU put forward some new demands for Turkey, about which the latter could not have but known about in advance. This means that Turkey signed the agreements with Armenia not as part of its effort to join the EU, something that provides one of the points of departure for understanding why Turkey decided to reach an agreement with Armenia.

At the same time, we must not ignore the pressures on Turkey both direct and behind the scenes. And those came from more places than just the capitals of the countries which were represented at the signing ceremony. (Here, we intentionally are not touching on the role of Israel in all these complicated political games, the situation around Iran, the transportation routes for Iraqi oil and the Kurdish element in Iraq, as each of these represent a distinctive subject for discussion).

Turkey, who bear the genetic code of the Ottoman Empire as far as great power games are concerned, will not agree to play the role of a defeated country even under the pressure of world powers. Ankara is not in such a weak geopolitical situation that it has to act in ways that harm its national interests. Not long ago, we should remember, Turkey felt itself strong enough to refuse the United States the right to use the military base at Incirlik for the supply of the anti-Saddam operations of the coalition forces in Iraq.

When pointing to the harm the protocols between Ankara and Yerevan create for Azerbaijan in the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, one must not forget that the Armenian diaspora has terrorized Turkey with the issue of the so-called “Armenian genocide.” In its turn, Turkish diplomacy, which connects this question with the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict until recently took a position absolutely the same as Azerbaijan both because of their common Turkishness and because of Turkey’s own national interests. These two issues also served as a factor which united the Azerbaijani and Turkish diaspora, which resisted recognition of “the Armenian genocide” by pointing to the Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani lands.

Viewed from that perspective, it would seem that Turkey, which has little to gain economically and politically by reaching an accord with Armenia, signed the protocols in a way that both undercut its own interests and angered its fraternal and strategic relationship with Azerbaijan.

Of course, in contrast to the 1990s, Azerbaijan today is not the weak “younger brother” who needs support but an equal state that is confident in its own forces and demands respect on that basis. This cannot entirely please the current Turkish powers that be, but it is not the occasion for a break with a reliable partner. Differences in the question of the transportation of Azerbaijani gas to Turkey also cannot be the subject for speculation on such a strategic question as the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border.

During the entire period of talks with Armenia, official representatives of Turkey at various levels repeated that the relationship Ankara sought would not harm the interests of Azerbaijan and that the Turkish-Armenian borders will not be opened until the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Among those who have constantly said this are Turkish President Abdulla Gul, Prime Minister Erdogan, Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu, members of the parliament, opposition figures and others both before and after the signing of the protocols.

At the same time, every step of Armenian-Turkish negotiations was discussed with Baku, and talks about the peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue continued in the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group.

And in this context, the declaration of Turkish President Gul concerning the impact in “a short time” of the Armenian-Turkish accords on “the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict” merits attention and should calm many of the concerns in Azerbaijan.

At the present time, when Azerbaijan has acquired major geopolitical importance, ignoring its interests on such an important issue is impossible. Consequently, the interests of Baku were taken into consideration. Note that immediately after the signing in Switzerland of the Armenian-Turkish agreement Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev arrived in Zurich where the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was discussed. Further, a short time after the signing of the agreement with the very same mission, Tina Kaidanow, the US Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia arrived in Baku, and in the framework of the meetings of the foreign ministers of the Black Sea countries, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu met with President Ilham Aliyev and his foreign minister, Elmar Mammadyarov. And the visit to Baku of General Ishyk Koshaner, commander of Turkish ground forces, to meet with Azerbaijani Defense Minister Col. Gen. Safar Abiyev is yet another confirmation of this.

Taken together, it is clear that this cycle of visits was not a matter of chance.

And if there were any doubt about this, the reaction both within Armenian society and also in the diaspora to the accord which should allow Armenia to escape from the blockade has been negative. Evidently, Armenian society and politicians recognize that they will have to free the occupied territories, because otherwise no one intends to save Armenia. It is not accidental that after the signing of the Zurich agreement, all sides represented at the ceremony except for Armenian Foreign Minister Edvard Nalbandyan did not hide their satisfaction with what had taken place.

In other words, everything shows that the Zurich agreement will have a positive consequence on the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Judging by the presence at the signing ceremony of the representatives of the OSCE Minsk Group, it is possible to assert that all interested sides are informed about this process and about its impact on the resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.

If under the pressure of the diaspora Armenia will not ratify the agreement, Azerbaijan and Turkey will return to where they were before. If the Turkish and Armenian parliaments all the same give legal force to the agreement, then Armenia will have to free Azerbaijani territories in order to secure the opening of the Turkish borders. Otherwise, Ankara, responding to public pressure in Azerbaijan and in Turkey will not be able to open the borders with Armenia. In that case, Azerbaijani and Turkish public opinion will be in a position to increase international pressure on Yerevan and the Armenian diaspora regarding the liberation of the occupied territories.

If Armenia does not follow through, then Turkey will always be in a position to find reasons to close the borders. In such a case, Azerbaijan will be left with only one choice – the liberation of the occupied territories by military means; and the countries involved in the division of spheres of influence in the region will have to agree with this. Otherwise Azerbaijan, using its status as “the most reliable country for the transportation of gas,” will have every reason for refusing to allow the Nabucco project to pass through its territory.

Every country has its own interests and priorities, and in this case, that means that there is no chance that Turkey will sacrifice its relations with Azerbaijan for new ties with Armenia.

May 6, 2010