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Category: Afghanistan

Will it Strengthen U.S.-Turkish Relations?

Will the Closure of Manas Airbase Strengthen U.S.-Turkish Relations?

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 6 Issue: 35

February 23, 2009

Saban Kardas

The Kyrgyz parliament’s vote to close down Manas Airbase puts at risk supply routes for international forces operating in Afghanistan shortly after the U.S. decision to bolster the American military presence in Afghanistan (EDM, February 20). The attempts to find alternative routes in the wake of this controversial decision highlight the strategic cooperation between Turkey and the United States and the role Turkey could play in maintaining a supply route for U.S. forces in Afghanistan.

Referring to some Russian and American experts, the Turkish press has speculated that the United States may try to find another base in Central Asia to compensate for the loss of Manas. Given the growing Russian influence in the region and the declining credibility of the United States following the Russo-Georgian war in the summer of 2008, however, they claim that the United States would have a hard time securing a new base agreement. If the Americans fail to convince Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to accept U.S. requests, according to the Turkish press, the United States then would request a military base in Turkey’s Black Sea town of Trabzon (Hurriyet, February 19; Evrensel, February 20; Yeni Safak, February 20).

As the speculation mounted, the question of whether the United States had indeed knocked on Turkey’s door was raised to Metin Gurak, the spokesman of the Turkish military, during his weekly press briefing on Friday, February 20. Gurak stressed that as of the briefing Turkey had received no such request (Ihlas Haber Ajansi, February 20).

The same day, U.S. military sources announced that they had been able to secure the cooperation of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to allow transportation of non-lethal supplies to Afghanistan through their territories (AFP, Friday 20). In a development that apparently lends support to the Turkish press reports, Retired Air Force General and chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Richard Myers, told 6 News, a private Turkish news station, that although the decision of the Kyrgyz parliament would not disrupt U.S. operations, it would make maintaining the supply routes more inconvenient and possibly more expensive. Noting that Manas was used mainly for refueling purposes, he emphasized that other bases in the Middle East, including in Turkey, could also host refueling tankers but with more operational costs involved. Myers said that the United States was seeking its NATO allies’ support and emphasized his belief that Turkey and the United States would maintain their constructive cooperation in Afghanistan (Star, February 20).

Indeed, since the beginning of military operations in Afghanistan following September 11 and the subsequent launch of international stability operations, Turkey has provided military assistance to the U.S.-led coalition, in both the context of the transatlantic alliance and Turkish-American strategic ties. During the initial operations leading to the fall of the Taliban regime, the United States used Turkish airspace and Incirlik Airbase for the campaign, although Turkey did not deploy combat troops. Turkey has also actively participated in the International Security and Assistance Force (ISAF) and commanded this NATO mission for two terms.

Can Turkey offer Trabzon? Analysts maintain that Trabzon offers many advantages in terms of its key location, which allows access to Middle Eastern, Central Asian, and Caucasus theaters; and therefore it is reportedly of interest to U.S. military planners. However, Turkey has previously declined American requests for setting up a base in Trabzon. Following the fall of Manas, the U.S. may press with a renewed proposal, but it is unlikely that the Turkish government would make such a politically risky decision. Also, Trabzon is one of the Anatolian cities where nationalist feelings and anti-Americanism run high; and, short of drastic U.S. actions to restore the deteriorating American image in Turkey, stationing U.S. personnel in the area might be a politically bad decision.

Therefore, claims about possible requests concerning an airbase in Trabzon might be exaggerated. Nonetheless, it is the case that as Afghanistan emerges as a major issue on the agendas of NATO and the Obama administration, Turkey is coming under pressure about its role in Afghanistan. Diplomatic sources believe that during his conversations with the Turkish prime minister and president, President Obama might have requested his counterparts to commit more Turkish troops or other forms of military contributions to U.S. military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq (EDM, February 19).

Subsequent developments support such a conjecture. NATO defense ministers met in Poland in an informal meeting on February 19 and 20 to discuss the agenda for the next summit in April. They welcomed the U.S. decision to raise troop levels but underscored the need for civilian contributions to be boosted as well (www.nato.int, February 20). Upon his return to Turkey from the meeting, Turkish Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul told reporters that he had had a chance to discuss Turkey’s contributions with its alliance partners. Noting that Turkey’s direct aid to Afghanistan amounted to $200 million, he said that Turkey assisted in the training of the Afghan military and police. Gonul also said that he had met separately with the Afghan and American defense ministers and discussed ways in which Turkey’s contributions might be increased (www.trt.net.tr, February 21).

In addition to Turkey’s possibly increased role in Afghanistan, Turkey is one of the major exit routes for U.S. planes withdrawing troops from Iraq (Hurriyet Daily News, February 23). These developments have an element of irony. The Turkish Parliament’s refusal to allow American forces to use Turkish territory to launch the northern front against the Iraqi Army in 2003 led many to claim that the Turkish-American relationship would go south. Soon after the fall of Baghdad and in a mood of triumph, some even speculated that the United States might punish Turkey by closing down the Incirlik base as part of its plans to relocate military bases worldwide. Only a few years after the Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns began, the United States had to abandon many of its positions in its new-found allies and might be requesting the use of Turkish territory.

The Kyrgyz parliament’s decision highlights both the importance of having a long-term and reliable ally in an area of strategic importance to U.S. interests and the mutual dependence between Turkey and the United States.

https://jamestown.org/program/will-the-closure-of-manas-airbase-strengthen-u-s-turkish-relations/

February 23, 2009
Poor Richard’s Report

Poor Richard’s Report
Over 300,000 readers
My Mission: God has uniquely designed me to seek, write, and speak the truth as I see it. Preservation of one’s wealth while continuing to provide needed income is my primary goal for these unsettled times. I have been given the desire to study and observe global money progressions and trends for the last 50 years. I evaluate possible future trends in order to provide positive concepts for you to form your own conclusions. The main purpose of this letter is to warn you of possible financial sinkholes.
Good Bye Stocks – Hello Bonds

We are leaving the golden era of free enterprise due to unmitigated greed and chicanery. We can easily adjust if we accept the true meaning of what awaits us. If we fight to retain our old dreams and fantasies we will see ourselves being spoon fed by fat socialist bureaucrats for the “common good”.
In this letter I will present some facts for your perusal and then you can make up your own mind in regards to your financial decisions. Those willing to change their offensive strategy can become winners in life’s never ending battles.
The result of these recent price disturbances (all the bubbles bursting) is the falling value of the property that has been borrowed against. The value of the property’s income also falls. We have come from extreme over indebtedness and now find ourselves in a hole – we should stop digging.
This is a hard lesson that our grandparents learned in the 1930’s, but sadly has been forgotten as satanic greed took over our souls. We now find ourselves caught between a recession and a depression. I call it a MESSYSESSION.
All the corporations whose bubbles have burst must work down their inventories; since many are in the financial sector this will take time. Individuals must use their earnings to pay down debts to save their homes instead of spending money on frivolous purchases. The Rule of 72 has the deck stacked against them, unless the Usury Law is resumed. The lack of the Usury Law is quicksand for our economic recovery.
The working down of inventories alone can be deflationary, however, the Federal Reserve has been pumping money into our supply pipeline at super speed. When an entity goes bankrupt, those debts do not go back into circulation, they go to money heaven. This is why the Fed has to keep the supply pool full and why this action should keep us out of a depression.
Having to pay down all this debt slows down our economy and hurts our suppliers worldwide. This is why we have a world wide Messysession.
Corporations that have borrowed from the Government will have a hard time maintaining their common stock dividends because their first priority is bond interest. Their second priority is preferred dividends. What is left over will then be distributed to common stock holders or used for debt reduction. Debt reduction means job security.
Sooner or later the US Government will have to go on a massive borrowing campaign. This could weaken the dollar and send interest rates soaring along with the price of Gold – for a while.
Some recessions are “V” shaped, which means stocks fall down hard and come back up quickly. Stocks tumble, but recover because there are people looking across the valley. If the recovery is like an elongated “U” or “L” one needs binoculars to see across the valley to a recovery. This could cause price to earnings ratios to shrivel, since analyst’s earnings estimates will be suspect at best. The economy can take a year or two to recover based upon how responsible Congress is. It will be years before our economy fully recovers from all the bubble bursting. What we need is a cheap new energy invention.
The only period, since 1872, where stocks substantially outperformed bonds on a prolonged basis was the 1950s to 1960s. This was a golden era for stocks and it has taken many abuses to wind down.
These are some of the many issues that President Obama faces on the home front. Now we shall look at some of his international problems.
Europe is changing. It used to be that France and Germany were the major players, with Great Britain looking on. The United States has encouraged the expansion of the European Community to diminish the power of the two largest countries. Poland is emerging as an economic power and if Turkey is admitted, as they should be, they will bring new found political clout for the first time since the demise of the Ottoman Empire 90 years ago. Their inclusion could bring stabilization to the chaotic Middle East situation. Turkey has freedom of religion, a vigorous economy (17th largest), and a solid government. Their influence is growing. They also have a strategic location to insure peace long term.
Then, there is Russia, who can throw all kinds of money around, but when it comes to signing on the dotted line – they cannot be trusted. Turning off gas supplies in mid-winter and canceling major contracts with world-renowned companies are actions that are hard to forget. Obama has pledged to focus US military power on the war in Afghanistan. The bulk of supplies must come from the north. Russia does not want a ballistic missile defense system in central Europe. It wants a halt to NATO expansion and reduced American influence in the Caucus and central Asia. They also want a broad renegotiation on non-trivial treaties that are terrible for Russia in 2009. (Anyone want to be President?)
We must come up with a way to renew confidence for the consumer. First and foremost is the renewal of our Usury laws that were dropped because disintermediation was wrecking the banking system in the 1970s. Creating lasting jobs will not happen by just building roads. These programs must be done so that they promote or improve future growth. It is difficult to do this on a national level because there are too many fingers in the pie. Programs done on a state level are easier to control. It is more realistic to meet regional needs.
Lowering corporate taxes when a corporation moves into intercity areas would mean better roads, and businesses to support them. Raising taxes invites tax avoidance schemes that only benefit the issuer. It also removes money from the private sector. Today, pricing power has evaporated.
There must be global reorganization of the securities laws, most importantly the Uptick rule. Countries that do not participate should be banned from trading within the member countries. Today hedge funds and institutions have spent millions of dollars on sophisticated trading programs. This makes for an uneven playing field and has driven the small investor to the sidelines, as witnessed by declining volume on the exchanges. The large institutional investor becomes the ultimate bag-holder at the bottom of markets when they have no one to sell to.
If a country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is declining that means the average on corporate earnings will be declining also. This means fewer companies will be showing an increase in earnings and therefore there will be fewer securities that have an investment grade value. Since there are already too many mutual funds and they all cannot buy the same stocks, that game is over. I would sell your mutual funds while you can if you are over 55 years old. If they get too many orders for liquidation they have the option of delivering stock of the same value to you. That is an easy way to get rid of their losers. If you are under 55 and own a balanced fund where the income can be reinvested on a periodic basis you are in the catbird seat. Lower prices will mean more shares and 10 to 15 years from now when the market recovers you could be a wealthy person. Other low income on non paying funds should be sold. It could be 20 to 25 years just to breakeven and that is only if it is a survivor.
First quarter earnings are going to be a disaster. I suspect this is when many will throw in the towel and give up.
Gold should be considered a hedge – possible short term.
Here are some moneymaking ideas. A successful portfolio can be 20% equities 50% fixed income and 30% cash.
By equities I mean income-producing securities yielding over 5%. There are a few out there that are “stupid” cheap versus dirt-cheap. Then there are preferred stocks, many of which are 85% tax-free. Many are selling below their call price. This means if a company wants to improve its balance sheet, they can do that by calling your preferred from you by paying the call price. If they fail to pay a preferred dividend it becomes cumulative. To resume payments they must make up the back dividends first. One that falls into this category is: AMERCO Pfd A (NYSE) 20 (2-6-09) pays $2.125 which yields 9.41%. gives you a tax free yield of 8%. If they call the stock at $25 you will have a $5 gain which amounts to a 25% gain. You won’t be able to have this return with common stocks over the next several years.
Tax free bonds were good when income tax rates were 55%-92%. The low tax rates today are beaten by preferred stock’s rates, such as the one I mentioned above. You have a ready market and real value. What you see is what you get. There was an issue on Long Island that defaulted in the depression. A default like that today would wreck havoc in the entire sector. For safety reasons, please avoid tax-free bonds.
Since the US has to borrow around a trillion dollars or more, Government bonds could be an instant loss. For now, I would avoid these also. That leaves us with corporate bonds. Many corporate bonds have a better balance sheet than the United States. Buying bonds in the five year range is the safest place to be. As the bond gets closer to maturity the price fluctuations are at a minimum and easily salable. You are better off buying an individual bond than a fund. The fund will charge a yearly management fee as well as anything else they can get away with. Also, some funds simply dump bonds into a portfolio and walk away. There was a case where a fund dumped their holdings of an issue right at the very bottom, only to have the bonds called a few months later. Please remember that corporate bond holders have first lien on a corporation’s asset.
I suspect that in a few months you will see a stampede out of many mutual funds and a proliferation of all types of bond funds trying to cash in on the new trend. Keep it simple- buy your own.
I know I have thrown many ideas your way in this letter and I apologize, but I feel the times warrant such thinking. I will be available, free of charge, to anyone who would want to discuss any of these ideas at the addresses below.
CHEERIO!!!!
Richard C De Graff 2/10/2009
256 Ashford Road
RER Eastford Ct 06242
860-522-7171 Main Office
800-821-6665 Watts
860-315-7413 Home/Office
rdegraff@coburnfinancial.com

This report has been prepared from original sources and data which we believe reliable but we make no representation to its accuracy or completeness. Coburn & Meredith Inc. its subsidiaries and or officers may from time to time acquire, hold, sell a position discussed in this publications, and we may act as principal for our own account or as agent for both the buyer and seller.

February 11, 2009
A BOMB TARGETED A TURKMEN JUDGE IN IRAQ

An explosive device that was placed inside the house of Judge Abdul-Mahdi Najar who lives in Tuz Khormatu went off about three o’clock this afternoon on the 2nd of January 2009.

The blast occurred in the Aksu neighbourhood in Tuz Khormatu district which is one of the Turkmeneli districts; it is located on the highway between Baghdad and the strategic oil city of Kirkuk.

The blast has caused minor damage to the house inhabited by the Turkmen judge who works at Tuz Khormatu court it also caused damaged to the car that was parked in front of the house belonging to one of the guests.

The Turkmen Judge also was targeted on 9th of September 2008 by a suicide car bomb which resulted in the death of ten Turkmen people.

The Türkmen judge has complained to the police authorities, which refuses to allocate security guards for his protection from the police.

Mofak Salman

January 3, 2009
Poor Richard’s Report

POOR RICHARD’S REPORT

Over 300,000 readers

2009 Forecasts (Stocks, Bonds etc…)

The word “billions” is being bandied around every day now. I would like to put this number in perspective before I start my market letter.

                   A billion seconds equals 32 years. A billion seconds ago puts us back to December 1977. A billion minutes ago Jesus walked upon this earth. A billion hours ago was the Stone Age and a billion days ago the earth was being formed. Now here is the scary part: our government spends a billion dollars in a little over 8 hours.

                 My point is that it is going to take a long time to pay down our debt. The consumer is tapped out and they can no longer use their home as an ATM machine. Bankers are worried about their jobs so they are not lending, despite what Chairman Bernanke is doing.

                   I have written in previous letters that we are fighting DEFLATION. Now the Federal Reserve has confirmed it. The best way to combat deflation is to spend huge amounts on many projects. I know that in Hartford, CT much of the inner city’s sewers are brick lined causing cellars to flood after many heavy rains. The problem with this spending is that only 6 cents for every dollar appropriated by the US Government gets to the public within the first year. If the St. Lawrence Seaway was proposed today it would take over 50 years just to get started after all the feasibility studies and lawsuits were settled.

                   Now that home prices are finding their proper level, homeowners are paying down debt to protect their family homestead. Any more rebates will be used to pay down various debts. Dr. Bernanke has achieved a remarkable feat. The Federal Reserve has been trying to do this for over 35 years.

               Government bond are yielding what they should. They are perhaps too low, but they are now reflecting their proper market place. Government bonds are considered risk-less compared to other debt. The reason is simple, they are backed by the US Government and the government is backed by you and me. That’s right. That means us.

US Treasury bills will trade in the area of .5% to 0%. This depends on the perceived severity of our world problems. They will be used as a flight to safety.   The long bond, the 30 year Treasury, is now yielding a 2.54% return. As positive events unfold, the maximum yield for the foreseeable future should be at the 3.5% area.

                   The low yields will allow the government, states, and businesses to make long term commitments for basic projects and manufacturing plants. Don’t forget the oil industry either. This is a long term positive.

                   I expect the economy to take a deep dive in the first quarter, but because of our easy money policy, it may level out and gradually improve. It will be a decade before investors will forget about what is happening now. In the meantime, unheard of values will be sprouting like tulips in the springtime. Stocks will not recover as quickly though. The playing field must be leveled. A trader should be 100% cash. Long-term investors can cherry pick in there, because like some preferred stocks, the yields can be very enticing. Remember the rule of “72”. Banks operate under this rule also. Take 72 and multiply it by whatever interest rate you are paying and the answer is how many years it will take you to break even on your money. A 10% rate will take 7.2 years. The average mutual fund is down 44% this year and that does not include the “management fees”. That means it has to move 81% before you can break even. A small (8%) loss can be made up easily. It will take less than a 10% upward move.

                   All debt will (and should) be priced off the comparable US Treasury bond. The higher quality will, and should, have a lower yield than that of speculative debt instruments. Preferred stocks will have a higher yield and common stocks will yield greater because they are riskier than others.

                   My favorite investment now is AMERCO Preferred A. They own U-Haul and it is listed on the NYSE under the symbol AO PRA. The price at the time of this writing is $18.50 and the dividend is $2.125 and the yield works out to 11%. It can be called away from you at $25.00. If the stock is called away from you your gain will be approximately 30%. This combined with the 11% return cannot be beaten by a common stock in today’s environment. There are still too many investors who expect to invest by yesterday’s rules. They expect to recapture yesterday’s losses by brilliant maneuvers today. Thus, the stock market has not taken its toll yet. The second half of the down leg could be worse for aggressive traders, but values are there for the long term conservative investor with cash.

                   The US Congress is going to go after the credit card companies by 2010, which will be two years too late. When inflation was first starting and government bond rates were soaring, investors could borrow at the maximum rate of 8% because we had usury laws. Back then they would turn around and buy a government bond yielding 10% and upwards. This was called disintermediation! We are now suffering under reverse disintermediation. It has to be stopped now. They should reinstate the USURY Law today. It used to be referred to as sinful. It is a simple case of money matters versus ethics. You decide.

          The weak dollar helps our balance of payments in the short run and is also positive for precious metals.

          The new SEC Chairman is Mary Shapiro, and there is much talk about her. I want to know what she stands for. I pray that she will bring back the uptick rule. If that was her first ruling the market would soar for weeks as the shorts sellers ran for cover.   I believe she could be positive for the market.

          Deutsche Bank has decided not to redeem its hybrid-capital bonds in January. Other banks might follow with their own bonds. Then again, the Fed might buy them. There is only one debt instrument whose terms are set in stone – US Government bonds.

          The price of oil will stay down for sometime because certain oil countries got too greedy – just like the consumer- and now need every penny they can get. So OPEC can make lofty statements about the price of oil, but certain members and non-members are cheating to “beat the band”. Cartels never last. This could be the year they bust.

          Money market funds will soon disappear in favor of Savings Banks provided they adopt some of the favorable aspects of the funds. No waiting period comes to mind.

          Sub-prime crisis will be fading into the woodwork and it is more than likely that Adjustable rate mortgages will be adjusted downward. The real subprime disaster can be avoided if the banks which did it -eat it. Enough said.

          THE BIG UNFORESEEN FOR 2009 WILL BE PAKISTAN.

          Pakistan is a democracy that cannot work because half of the population is in mountainous areas whose tribes belong to ethnic groups in bordering countries. They have Afghanistan to the north and Al-Qaeda seeking safety in their territory. It is like a giant Capture the Flag game. Then, tucked in the southeast corner they have Kashmir, which is seeking trouble between India. They both have Atomic bombs, but India’s work better. It is a rock and lots of hard places. President Bush had Iraq and President Obama might have Pakistan. We can not win a defensive war in Afghanistan. General Petraeus has a real challenge.

          In a crisis there are also opportunities. The free market system has been hit below the belt, but will recover because we are free people. When we make investments we know there are risks, and we can lose. This year we have lost. The government must set up new rules and umpires to toss out the cheaters. There are banks that grew too fast by acquisition so that they could be “too big to fail.” Well, they will fail sooner or later because the public knows or will find out and stop doing business with them. They will go where they are treated fairly and politicians who have treated us fairly will be returned to office.

        The Congress must separate brokerage and banking, but allow banks to form syndicates that can compete along with brokerage syndicates. We must not deny a revenue stream to one while favoring the other.

          Executive salaries should be based upon earnings. Year over year gains in earnings should be comparable salary. Declining earnings means a loss in wages. Credit should be given to shareholder dividends versus outrageous bonuses. It should not be how much money you make, but how good you are.

There should be a global regulation body that would support the general market place with ethics and a passion to make money honestly. Members would be able to trade among them selves, but countries that break rules to suit their own purpose, like Russia, should be sequestered. It should be a private club. Membership based upon integrity and honor.

Now the real scoop on our next President: on January 21, 2009, please attain a copy of his inaugural address. Then underline every theme and idea he presents. This is his utopian moment and he wants the whole world to know what he stands for. The problem is that many will not listen.

          When events happen and the press wonders what he will do; just go back and reread his address. There you will find the answer. This has worked for every President that I have studied since JFK.

Cheerio!!!

Richard C De Graff

256 Ashford Road

Eastford Ct 06242

860-522-7171 Main Office

800-821-6665 Watts

860-315-7413 Home/Office

rdegraff@coburnfinancial.com

This report has been prepared from original sources and data which we believe reliable but we make no representation to its accuracy or completeness. Coburn & Meredith Inc. its subsidiaries and or officers may from time to time acquire, hold, sell a position discussed in this publications, and we may act as principal for our own account or as agent for both the buyer and seller.

December 29, 2008
Trouble in the Other Middle East

December 8, 2008

Op-Ed Contributor

By ROBERT D. KAPLAN

Washington

THE divisions we split the world into during the cold war have at long last crumbled thanks to the Mumbai terrorist attacks. No longer will we view South Asia as a region distinct from the Middle East. Now there is only one long continuum stretching from the Mediterranean to the jungles of Burma, with every crisis from the Israeli-Palestinian dispute in the west to the Hindu-Muslim dispute in the east interlocked with the one next door.

Yet this elongated Greater Near East does not signify something new but something old.

For significant parts of medieval and early modern history, Delhi was under the same sovereignty as Kabul, yet under a different one from Bangalore. From the 16th to the 18th centuries, the Mughal dynasty, created by Muslims from Central Asia, governed a sprawling empire encompassing northern and central India, almost all of Pakistan and much of Afghanistan — even as Hindu Maratha warriors in India’s south held out against Mughal armies. India’s whole history — what has created its rich syncretic civilization of Turko-Persian gems like the Taj Mahal and the elaborate Hindu temples of Orissa — is a story of waves of Muslim invaders in turn killing, interacting with and ultimately being influenced by indigenous Hindus. There is even a name for the kind of enchanting architecture that punctuates India and blends Islamic and Hindu styles: Indo-Saracenic, a reference to the Saracens, the term by which Arabs were known to Europeans of the Middle Ages.

Hindu-Muslim relations have historically been tense. Remember that the 1947 partition of the subcontinent uprooted at least 15 million people and led to the violent deaths of around half a million. Given this record, the relatively peaceful relations between the majority Hindus and India’s 150 million Muslims has been testimony to India’s successful experiment in democracy. Democracy has so far kept the lid on an ethnic and religious divide that, while its roots run centuries back, has in recent years essentially become a reinvented modern hostility.

The culprit has been globalization. The secular Indian nationalism of Jawaharlal Nehru’s Congress Party, built around a rejection of Western colonialism, is more and more a thing of the past. As the dynamic Indian economy merges with that of the wider world, Hindus and Muslims have begun separate searches for roots to anchor them inside a bland global civilization. Mass communications have produced a uniform and severe Hinduism from a host of local variants, even as the country’s economically disenfranchised Muslims are increasingly part of an Islamic world community.

The Muslim reaction to this Hindu nationalism has been less anger and violence than simple psychological withdrawal: into beards, skull caps and burkas in some cases; self-segregating into Muslim ghettos in others. The terrorist attacks in Mumbai had a number of aims, one of which was to set a fuse to this tense intercommunal standoff. The jihadists not only want to destroy Pakistan, they want to destroy India as well. India in their eyes is everything they hate: Hindu, vibrantly free and democratic, implicitly and increasingly pro-American, and militarily cozy with Israel. For Washington, this is no simple matter of defending Pakistan against chaos by moving troops from Iraq to Afghanistan. It is a whole region we are dealing with. Thus for the jihadists, the concept of a 9/11-scale attack on India was brilliant.

Just as the chaos in Iraq through early 2007 threatened the post-Ottoman state system from Lebanon to Iran, creeping anarchy in Pakistan undermines not only Afghanistan but also the whole Indian subcontinent. The existence of terrorist outfits like Lashkar-e-Taiba that have links with the Pakistani security apparatus but are outside the control of Pakistan’s own civilian authorities is the very definition of chaos.

A collapsing Pakistan, and with it the loss of any real border separating India from Afghanistan, is India’s worst nightmare. It brings us back toward the borders of the Mughal world, but not in a peaceful way. Indeed, the route that intelligence agencies feel was taken by the fishing boat hijacked by the terrorists — from Porbandar in India’s Gujarat State, then north to Karachi in Pakistan, and then south to Mumbai — follows centuries-old Indian Ocean trade routes.

The jihadist attack on India’s financial center not only damages Indian-Pakistani relations, but makes Pakistan’s new civilian government — which has genuinely tried to improve ties with India — look utterly pathetic. Thus, the attack weakens both countries. Any understanding over Kashmir, the disputed Muslim-majority territory claimed by Pakistan, is now further than ever from materializing, with mass violence there a distinct possibility.

This, in turn, reduces the chance of an Indian-Pakistani rapprochement on Afghanistan, whose government Pakistan seeks to undermine and India sends millions of dollars in aid to help prop up. The Pakistani security services want a radical Islamized Afghanistan as a strategic rear base against India, while India wants a moderate, secular Afghanistan as a weapon against Pakistan.

Pakistan is not only chaotic but dangerously lonely. Islam has not proved effective in bringing together its regionally based ethnic groups, and thus a resort to a fierce ideology as a unifying device among fundamentalist Muslims has been the country’s signal tragedy. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s military suspects that Washington will desert their nation the moment the leadership of Al Qaeda is, by any chance, killed or captured.

Making matters worse, every time the United States launches an air attack into Pakistan from Afghanistan, it further destabilizes the Pakistani state. That is why the Mumbai attacks bring true joy to the most dangerous elements of the Pakistani security establishment: the tragedy has caused the world to focus on India’s weaknesses — its lax security, its vulnerability to age-old maritime infiltration and, most of all, the constant threat of caste and tribal violence — that have been obscured by its economic success. See, many Pakistanis are saying, your beloved India is not so stable either.

This is nonsense, of course. India, with all its troubles, is far more stable than Pakistan. In the meantime, every day that goes by without riots in India is a defeat for the Mumbai terrorists. Indeed, India’s own Muslims have demonstrated against the attacks.

But India, not just Pakistan, desperately needs help. Just as solving or at least neutralizing the Israeli-Palestinian dispute is a requirement for reducing radicalism and Iranian influence throughout the Levant, the same is true of the Indian-Pakistani dispute at the other end of the Greater Middle East. Our notion of the “peace process” is antiquated and needs expanding. We need a second special negotiator for the Middle East, a skilled diplomat shuttling regularly among New Delhi, Islamabad and Kabul. (There has been some speculation, in fact, that Barack Obama is considering Richard Holbrooke, the former United Nations ambassador, for just such a job.)

The Middle East is back to where it was centuries ago, not because of ancient hatreds but because of globalization. Instead of bold lines on a map we have a child’s messy finger painting, as the circumvention of borders and the ease of communications allow the brisk movement of ideas and people and terrorists from one place to another. Our best strategy is, as difficult and trite as it sounds, to be at all places at once, Not with troops, necessarily, but with every bit of energy and constant attention that our entire national security apparatus — and those of our allies — can bring to bear.

Robert D. Kaplan is a national correspondent for The Atlantic and a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

December 12, 2008
Dostum Says He Is Not in Exile in Turkey and Remains a Potent Force in Afghanistan

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 5 Issue: 233

December 8, 2008 05:57 PM Age: 18 min

Category: Eurasia Daily Monitor, Turkey, Foreign Policy, Home Page, Featured

By: Saban Kardas

A Turkish newspaper has reported that Rashid Dostum, the leader of ethnic Uzbeks in Afghanistan, was flown to Turkey as part of a special operation arranged by the Turkish government. The report maintained that Dostum might be sent into exile by the Afghan government as a result of a secret deal to save him from the impending investigations into his involvement in the kidnapping and beating of political rivals (Vatan, December 3). Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesperson Burak Ozugergin confirmed that Dostum was in Turkey but denied the claims that he was under house arrest. He noted that there was no current judicial process against Dostum in Afghanistan and he was in Turkey to spend the Eid al-Adha (Kurban bayrami) with his family members who live in Ankara. “General Dostum is the honorary leader of a community with Turkic origins in Afghanistan… He may have some contacts in Turkey,” added Ozugergin (Today’s Zaman, December 5). Dostum also spoke to members of the Turkish press denying the allegations. He thanked the Turkish government for its hospitality and noted that he would stay in Turkey after the holiday (December 8 to 11) and discuss the developments in Afghanistan with Turkish officials. Regarding his relations with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Dostum said, “He is our president and commander-in-chief, and I am his deputy. We have excellent relations. I met with him before coming to Turkey.” Dostum added that “Afghanistan is our home. Nobody can send General Dostum into exile. I am an important general” (www.cnnturk.com, December 4).

Dostum’s past ties with Turkey lie behind the fuss created over this latest trip to Turkey. Turkey has been a safe haven when he has encountered difficult times in Afghanistan in the past. A regional commander supporting the communist government during the Soviet invasion, Dostum brought together the predominantly ethnic-Uzbek militias in the Northern provinces and formed the Jumbesh-i Milli Islami (Islamic National Party) in Mazar-i Sharif after the Soviet withdrawal. Supported by Russia and Uzbekistan, Dostum’s well-equipped forces were part of shifting alliances during the civil war and later against the Taliban. Dostum pragmatically switched sides in response to changing balances of power and managed to survive the challenges of Afghan politics. Following the defeat of Ahmad Shah Massoud and fall of Kabul in 1996, Dostum emerged as a powerful force in the Northern Alliance ).

When Dostum’s ally Abdul Malik turned against him in 1997, allowing the Taliban forces to advance into areas under his control and briefly enter Mazar-i-Sharif, Dostum fled to Turkey and stayed there for three months. He returned to Afghanistan and joined the factions fighting the Taliban, serving as vice president of the defunct Afghan government. As the infighting within the Northern Alliance intensified in 1998, Dostum visited Ankara, seeking Turkey’s support. Turkey tried unsuccessfully to reconcile the differences between Dostum and Malik and unite the anti-Taliban opposition under one roof (Zaman, August 28, November 19, 1998). Dostum then settled in Turkey where he maintained his ties to the Afghan opposition.

Overall, Dostum was sympathetic toward Turkey and is believed to have enjoyed Turkish support. As an expression of his admiration for Turkey, he named his son Mustafa Kemal after Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkish state. In an interview, he particularly noted the support given to Uzbek groups by former Prime Minister and President Turgut Ozal and Former Prime Minister and President Suleyman Demirel. Their support had helped the Uzbeks survive difficult times during the civil war (Milliyet, June 27, 1997). He reportedly was unsatisfied with the support of subsequent governments, however. He told Turkish journalists that if he had received more economic and political backing from Turkey, he could have brought Northern Afghanistan under his control in 1996 and 1997 (Radikal, May 31, 2002). Some observers have speculated that the Turkish government of the time, led by Islamist Necmettin Erbakan, might, in fact, have been more inclined toward the Taliban ideologically, therefore refraining from supporting Dostum (Radikal, 15 November, 2001).

The fact of the matter remains: Dostum found a home in Turkey in those difficult times, although he could not obtain the full support he might have wanted. In April 2001 he returned to Afghanistan to join Massoud’s new campaign against the Taliban (Zaman, April 7, 2001). The launch of the Operation Enduring Freedom brought Dostum to forefront once again. His strategic decision to work with the American forces gave him a larger role in the interim Afghan government. Turkey’s collaboration with the U.S.-led international coalition against the Taliban also facilitated Dostum’s integration into the new Afghan political structure.

Turkey’s close ties with Dostum, however, have led to questions about Turkey’s neutrality toward different Afghan groups in the context of its involvement in the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). The Turkish government has insisted that despite its special ties with Dostum, the country did not discriminate between the various Afghan groups, and supported Karzai’s government (www.msnbcntv.com.tr, January 10, 2002). Dostum visited Turkey as the new government’s deputy defense minister in January 2002 and met with Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit and other officials. His entire visit was arranged by the Turkish National Intelligence Agency (Hurriyet, January 23, 2002). At the time, Turkey’s overt association with Dostum raised criticism that it would result in Dostum’s gradual marginalization in Afghan politics, as reflected in his exclusion from the Bonn Conference.

Dostum has occasionally been involved in factional politics and armed conflicts with rival leaders. He ran in the 2004 presidential elections and received 10 percent of the votes. Like other veteran commanders, he had problems adjusting to the new political setting, which in some cases put him in confrontation with the central administration. Karzai appointed Dostum as the Chief of Staff to the Commander in Chief, which many deemed a titular position. In February 2008, after Dostum’s alleged involvement in the kidnapping of a political rival, Karzai suspended his post. Nonetheless, the peculiarities of Afghan politics did not allow Karzai to eliminate Dostum (Terrorism Monitor, April 17). In October Dostum made peace with his rival through the mediation of Karzai and other senior officials (www.quqnoos.com, October 27). With the Taliban resurgent and the 2009 presidential elections approaching, Dostum, given his stronghold in the Northern provinces and reputation as a fierce military commander and master of alliance-building, remains an important force in Afghan politics. Turkey also seeks a larger role in the region as the trilateral meeting it held last week seems to confirm (EDM, December 5). It will be interesting to see how Dostum’s return from Turkey will affect Afghan politics in the days ahead.

https://jamestown.org/program/dostum-says-he-is-not-in-exile-in-turkey-and-remains-a-potent-force-in-afghanistan/

December 9, 2008