Category: Asia and Pacific

News.Az interviews Gareth Jenkins, non-resident Turkey expert at the USA’s Johns Hopkins University.

What do you think lies behind the WikiLeaks scandal?

I think the main factor behind the WikiLeaks scandal is US bureaucratic incompetence. If you give 3 million people clearance to view such a huge amount of confidential information, you only have yourself to blame if one of them decides to go public with it. The US should have been more careful. It is like leaving a wallet full of money in the middle of a public park, coming back one week later and being surprised that someone has stolen it. Instead of trying to prosecute the person who has picked up the wallet, the US should be asking themselves why they left it lying around.

There have been claims by some Iranian and Turkish politicians that the scandal is all part of some US conspiracy to make them look bad. This is just crazy. The cause is simply US incompetence. Any embarrassment the revelations have caused to anyone else is secondary. Although the revelations have seriously damaged the reputations of several countries, the US has been more badly damaged by this scandal than anyone else.

Is it just a coincidence that this happened right before the OSCE summit in Astana?

I think it probably is a coincidence, although I am not 100 percent sure. Those who run WikiLeaks are not just concerned with freedom of information. They are also out to embarrass governments. It does seem that they have tried to publish some of the most damaging material early to try to maximize its impact, but I haven’t seen any evidence that it is linked to the OSCE summit.

Has this incident damaged the US image?

Absolutely. I was pleasantly surprised by the eloquence and the candour of many of the cables. I had expected them to be very dull to read. It is good to see that the US is encouraging its diplomats to write freely and candidly. Also, I don’t think the damage to the image of the US itself is as bad as with the leaks of documents and videos about Afghanistan and Iraq – which seemed to indicate that, at best, US officials and members of the security forces sometimes had a callous disregard for human life, and, at worst, condoned the killing of innocent people. This time the damage is more to people’s pride and reputations. But the scandal has still damaged the US, not least because it makes US diplomats look untrustworthy.

People are going to be very wary about expressing themselves openly to US diplomats for fear that, despite what the diplomats may say about it all being in confidence, it may eventually be broadcast all over the world. If people cannot trust US diplomats, then they will avoid telling the whole truth and it will become difficult for Washington to get a clear picture of what is happening in the world. Over the last few years there have already been several examples which suggest that the US doesn’t understand the world very well – the failure to foresee the bloodbath in Iraq after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein is probably the most striking example. Washington’s understanding of the world is not going to improve if people are frightened of speaking openly to its diplomats.

Will the WikiLeaks revelations harm relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey, bearing in mind reported criticism by President Aliyev about Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan?

I think that the revelations so far – and only a tiny proportion of the documents have been published – have had a devastating impact on the reputation of Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). There are a lot of conspiracy theorists in Turkey and the press is frightened of opposing the government. So it might be possible for the AKP to limit the domestic damage. But internationally the revelations have been extremely corrosive. It is possible that some of the accusations of lying, corruption and sexual depravity by AKP ministers are rumour rather than fact, but it is difficult to dismiss so many reports of incompetence and AKP ministers complaining about each other. At the very least, it should be clear to the AKP that the rest of the world does not believe the image the AKP tries to project of itself.

One example of this is what President Aliyev is reported as saying about the AKP. The AKP – and particularly Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu – have been going around praising their foreign policy, telling everybody how successful they are etc. and, with regard to Azerbaijan, how relations are as strong as ever. Davutoglu has been saying both publicly and privately that, when the Azeri government expressed its dismay at the signing of the agreement with Armenia in October 2009, all he had to do was fly to Baku and, because he was such a skilled diplomat, he was able to reassure the Azeri government and that Turkish-Azeri relations were now as strong as ever – and many people in Turkey believed him. President Aliyev’s remarks demonstrate how inaccurate this was and what many in the Azeri government really think about the AKP, i.e. betrayed. In this sense, the leaked cables might serve as a wake-up call and perhaps persuade the AKP in general – and Davutoglu in particular – that they may believe their own propaganda, but nobody else does; and that arrogance is no substitute for genuine ability and success. If this results in Turkey actually working at its foreign relations with long-term allies such as Azerbaijan, instead of telling everybody how wonderful the AKP is, then the leaked cables may actually have a positive effect.

Leyla Tagiyeva

News.Az