Category: Asia and Pacific

Big Powers May Not Save Kyrgyzstan
If Kyrgyz-style violence should radiate across borders in Central Asia, the result could be a rise in Islamic militancy that would directly threaten Russia and the United States.

Diplomatic Memo

Value to Big Powers May Not Save Kyrgyzstan

Bryan Denton for The New York Times

Roza Otunbayeva, the head of the provisional government in Kyrgyzstan, landing by helicopter in the southern city of Osh on Friday, after days of ethnic fighting there.

By ELLEN BARRY

Published: June 18, 2010

MOSCOW — A year and a half ago, the world’s great powers were fighting like polecats over Kyrgyzstan, a landlocked stretch of mountains in the heart of Central Asia.
Related

Some Refugees Begin Returning to Kyrgyzstan (June 19, 2010)

Times Topic: Kyrgyzstan
The United States was ferociously holding on to the Manas Air Base, a transit hub considered crucial to NATO efforts in Afghanistan. Russia was so jealous of its traditional dominance in the region that it promised the Kyrgyz president $2.15 billion in aid the day he announced he was closing Manas. With the bidding war that followed, Kyrgyzstan could be forgiven for seeing itself as a global player. And yet for the past week, as spasms of violence threatened to break Kyrgyzstan apart, its citizens saw their hopes for an international intervention flicker and die. With each day it has become clearer that none of Kyrgyzstan’s powerful allies — most pointedly, its former overlords in Moscow — were prepared to get involved in a quagmire. Russia did send in several hundred paratroopers, but only to defend its air base at Kant. For the most part, the powers have evacuated their citizens, apparently content to wait for the conflict to burn itself out. The calculus was a pragmatic one, made “without the smallest thought to the moral side of the question,” said Aleksei V. Vlasov, an expert in the politics of post-Soviet countries at Moscow State University. “We use the phrase ‘collective responsibility,’ but in fact this is a case of collective irresponsibility,” he added. “While they were fighting about whatever — about bases, about Afghanistan — they forgot that in the south of Kyrgyzstan there was extreme danger. The city was flammable. All they needed to do was throw a match on it.” He referred to the city of Osh, which suffered days of ethnic rioting. Kyrgyzstan might have unraveled anyway, but competition between Moscow and Washington certainly sped the process. To lock in its claim on the base after the threat of expulsion, the United States offered President Kurmanbek S. Bakiyev $110 million to back out of his agreement with Russia, which had already paid him $450 million. Congratulating itself on its victory, Washington raised the stakes by announcing the construction of several military training facilities in Kyrgyzstan, including one in the south, which further irritated Moscow. This spring, the Kremlin won back its lost ground, employing a range of soft-power tactics to undermine Mr. Bakiyev’s government. Mr. Bakiyev was ousted by a coalition of opposition leaders in April, and conditions in Kyrgyzstan’s south — still loyal to the old government — hurtled toward disaster. “Let’s be honest, Kyrgyzstan is turning into a collapsing state, or at least part of it is, and what was partially responsible is this geopolitical tug of war we had,” said Alexander A. Cooley, who included Manas in a recent book about the politics of military bases. “In our attempts to secure these levers of influence and support the governing regime, we destabilized these state institutions. We are part of that dynamic.” Last week, as pillars of smoke rose off Osh and Jalal-Abad, citizens begged for third-party peacekeepers to replace local forces they suspected of having taken part in the violence. Roza Otunbayeva, the head of Kyrgyzstan’s interim government, asked Moscow for peacekeepers, and when that request was denied, for troops to protect strategic sites like power plants and reservoirs. She asked Washington to contribute armored vehicles from the base at Manas, which she said would be used to transport the dead and wounded, she told the Russian newspaper Kommersant. So far, Moscow and Washington have responded mostly with humanitarian aid pledges — late on Friday, Russia’s Defense Ministry said that Ms. Otunbayeva’s request was still under consideration. The United States, overextended in Afghanistan and Iraq, has neither the appetite nor the motivation for a new commitment. Russia, the more obvious player, sees the risks of a deployment outweighing the benefits. Russian troops would enter hostile territory in south Kyrgyzstan, where Mr. Bakiyev’s supporters blame Moscow for his overthrow, and Uzbekistan could also revolt against a Russian presence. Mr. Vlasov, of Moscow State University, said: “Who are we separating? Uzbeks from Kyrgyz? Krygyz from Kyrgyz? Kyrgyz from some criminal element? There is no clearly defined cause of this conflict. It would be comparable to the decision the Soviet Politburo made to invade Afghanistan — badly thought through, not confirmed by the necessary analytical work.” If the explosion of violence was a test case for the Collective Security Treaty Organization, an eight-year-old post-Soviet security group dominated by Russia, it seems to have failed, its leaders unwilling to intervene in a domestic standoff. In any case, neither the Russian public nor the county’s foreign policy establishment is pressing the Kremlin to risk sending peacekeepers. “If you send them, you have to shoot sooner or later,” said Sergei A. Karaganov, a prominent political scientist in Moscow. “Then you are not a peacekeeper, but something else.” Though it seems that the worst of the violence has passed, great challenges remain. Beyond the immediate humanitarian crisis is an unstable state at the heart of a dangerous region. The Ferghana Valley, bordering Afghanistan, is a minefield of religious fundamentalism, drug trafficking and ethnic hatreds. If Kyrgyz-style violence should radiate across borders in Central Asia, the result could be a rise in Islamic militancy that would directly threaten Russia and the United States. The failure of international institutions last week should alarm both capitals. President Obama and President Dmitri A. Medvedev of Russia began their relationship with the crisis over the Manas base, and as they grope toward tentative collaboration in the post-Soviet space, Kyrgyzstan has dominated their conversation. Now, Kyrgyzstan needs help building a stable government that knits together the north and the south. Dmitri V. Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, suggested that NATO should be working with the members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization to develop a mechanism for collective action. The next time a Central Asian country is wobbling at the edge of a precipice, he said, someone must be prepared to accept responsibility. “You can abstain from a local conflict in Kyrgyzstan,” Mr. Trenin said. “You can close your eyes to it — it’s bad for your conscience — but you can live with it. If something happens in Uzbekistan, you will not be able to just let it burn out.”
June 19, 2010

Uzbeks Targeted in South Kyrgyzstan

Destruction of Uzbek Property Systemic; Aid Distribution Difficult

The destruction caused by rioters looting and burning their way through ethnic Uzbek neighborhoods in Osh, Kyrgyzstan, was systematic and thorough, says a Human Rights Watch team on the ground.
In one neighborhood, the rioters – often ethnic Kyrgyz – burned down more than 400 homes, a mosque and a school. Homes owned by ethnic Kyrgyz remain standing. One man described how gangs drove through the neighborhood, torched houses, and shot at people trying to flee.
The violence has subsided, but many ethnic Uzbeks don’t dare leave their neighborhoods. Human Rights Watch documented several cases in which ethnic Uzbeks were assaulted by men in camouflage when trying to enter a hospital or pick up humanitarian aid. This, along with the unstable security situation, makes distributing aid difficult.
There are surprisingly few police or soldiers in the city, raising serious questions about whether government forces there could contain any flare-up of the conflict.
Since the rioting began last Thursday, hundreds of people, mostly ethnic Uzbeks, have been killed and more than 1,000 injured. Uzbekistan has closed its border after taking in roughly 100,000 refugees. This border needs to remain open for those seeking refuge.
The International community should work with the Kyrgyz government, which took control two months ago after protests toppled the previous leadership. They should provide for the protection and humanitarian needs of all people.

Kyrgyzstan: Decisive Action Needed to Rein in Violence

Urgent Need for Humanitarian Measures as Attacks Continue

June 13, 2010

Men walk past a burning building in the city of Osh.

Ethnic Uzbek refugees wait to cross the border to Uzbekistan near the village of Jalal-Kuduk on June 14, 2010, after fleeing the violence in Kyrgyzstan.

Related Materials:

Kyrgyzstan: UN Should Act to Help End Violence

Kyrgyzstan: Protect All Ethnic Groups

People are desperate to escape the violence but without international assistance there’s no way out, and every minute of delay is costing lives.

Andrea Berg, Central Asia researcher at Human Rights Watch

(Osh) – The government of Kyrgyzstan should take immediate measures to ensure safety for people attempting to flee unchecked violence in southern Kyrgyzstan, Human Rights Watch said today. Human Rights Watch reiterated its call for a UN-mandated force to assist the Kyrgyz government in providing protection and stopping ethnic violence engulfing Osh and spreading to other cities in southern Kyrgyzstan.

“People are desperate to escape the violence but without international assistance there’s no way out, and every minute of delay is costing lives,” said Andrea Berg, Central Asia researcher at Human Rights Watch, who left Osh on June 13, 2010. “The Kyrgyz authorities need to set up effective measures to protect people and negotiate safe access for those who want to flee.”

Arson and other attacks continued on June 13, with residents reporting that a school and homes were on fire. A man in one ethnic Uzbek neighborhood in the center of Osh described to Human Rights Watch how gangs would drive through the neighborhood, set houses on fire, and shoot at people trying to flee. The gangs would leave when the military arrived, but then return as soon as the military left the neighborhood.

Eyewitnesses in Cherеmyshki, a neighborhood just west of the city center, told Human Rights Watch that gangs torched Uzbek houses and shot at people who attempted to flee. Gangs surrounded the neighborhood, preventing many from escaping.

A Human Rights Watch researcher saw burned out neighborhoods, burned cars, and barricaded neighborhoods, with some lone buildings and cars – marked KG, presumably for “Kyrgyz” – untouched.

The government of Kyrgyzstan sent security forces to Osh on June 12 and granted them shoot-to-kill authority, which Human Rights Watch said would inevitably lead to violations of the right to life. A man from Cheremyshki told Human Rights Watch that uniformed personnel and others clearly identified as official forces were also involved in the shooting in the neighborhood, although it is unclear if the Uzbeks were armed or presented any threat.

Meanwhile, ethnic violence worsened in Jalal-Abad, 50 miles from Osh, with Akipress, a Kyrgyz wire service, reporting gunfights and torching of homes, and that ethnic Uzbeks had fled.

The humanitarian situation in Osh and at the Kyrgyz-Uzbek border has grown increasingly desperate. A Human Rights Watch staff member in Osh received a flood of telephone calls from desperate people begging for assistance with evacuation, food, and medical aid. Several callers told Human Rights Watch that vulnerable groups including children and pregnant women are in especially urgent need for food and medical assistance. Humanitarian aid groups present in the city when the attacks began have not been able to provide assistance due to the dangerous security situation.

The poor security situation has also prevented delivery of humanitarian supplies to the thousands of ethnic Uzbeks who are fleeing the violence and massing at different points along the border with Uzbekistan.

Human Rights Watch called on the international community to work with the Kyrgyz government to provide for the protection and humanitarian needs of ethnic Uzbeks who are fleeing the violence and massing at different points along the border with Uzbekistan.

One source told Human Rights Watch that an Uzbek friend had said that gangs had driven toward the border and shot at people gathered there. It is not known whether any one was harmed as a result.

“The international community urgently needs to work with the government of Kyrgyzstan to ensure that humanitarian supplies can be delivered to the border areas,” Berg said.

Human Rights Watch also urged the government of Uzbekistan to keep the border open and allow all those seeking protection to cross. Although Uzbekistan has not ratified the 1951 Refugee Convention, Human Rights Watch urged the government of Uzbekistan at least to provide temporary protection to all Kyrgyz nationals seeking entry at the border and to allow the UN High Commissioner for Refugees to provide emergency assistance for them.

Human Rights Watch also urged the Kyrgyz government to reverse its decision to give security forces powers to shoot to kill. It further urged all parties that engage in law enforcement action to adhere to the UN Basic Principles on the Use of Force and Firearms by Law Enforcement Officials and the Code of Conduct for Law Enforcement Officials, which call for law enforcement officials to take steps to preserve and protect human life and resort to lethal force only as a last resort.

June 19, 2010

Turkey closer to Korean nuclear deal

The South Korean government has signed a preliminary agreement with Turkey to build two nuclear power plants on the country’s Black Sea coast.

If the two countries reach a commercial agreement by the end of next year, as they hope, Turkey would become the second export market for South Korean nuclear reactors after the UAE.

Yesterday’s announcement, made during a visit to Seoul by Abdullah Gul, the Turkish president, revived hopes of a South Korean win in the country after a first round of nuclear contracts was awarded to Russian companies last month. “The memorandum of understanding marks the first government-level understanding of the will to co-operate on it,” Yoon Sang-jik, the senior secretary for knowledge economy at the office of the South Korean president, told the state news agency Yonhap.

“It means the first concrete step towards a deal.”

Two senior sources in South Korea’s nuclear industry said the deal was preliminary and a number of important questions still had to be addressed.

“The media are talking about it a lot but it’s still under discussion between both countries,” one source said.

Officials at Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO), the state-owned power company that leads the country’s overseas nuclear programme, had mentioned Turkey as a key potential market along with Jordan, China, Romania, the US and Finland.

That was after winning the US$20 billion (Dh73.45bn) contract at the end of last year to build four reactors in Abu Dhabi by 2020.

A KEPCO official said in April that the Korean industry aimed to supply 20 per cent of the world’s nuclear market by 2030, equal to about 80 reactors.

But the company’s officials have been cautious about deals in which KEPCO would help to finance a reactor in a foreign country and make its return on the long-term sale of electricity. In its agreement to build four reactors on Turkey’s southern coast last month, Russia said it would fully cover the upfront, multibillion-dollar cost of each of the plants and eventually sell 51 per cent back to Turkish state power companies.

Choi Kyung-hwan, the South Korean minister of knowledge economy, told local press on Thursday that providing financing for reactors in Turkey could prove to be a hurdle for Korean companies.

“We can’t build plants by wholly establishing funds by ourselves like Russia proposed to Turkey,” Mr Choi was quoted as saying. “Turkey has to be the main player in financing the project, while Korea will partly participate.”

Turkey has barely any reserves of oil or natural gas and has planned the construction of civilian nuclear reactors for years to reduce its reliance on gas imported from Russia and Iran.

It initially planned to award construction contracts for nuclear power plants in 1997 but delayed the decision several times and ultimately abandoned the proposal.

In March 2008, the government invited a new round of commercial bids but received only one, from Russia’s AtomStroyExport.

The deal was cancelled last year but revived by last month’s political agreement for Russian companies to build four power plants with capacity of 1,200 megawatts.

The first plant will be in operation in as little as eight years, depending on how long it takes government regulators to approve a construction licence.

The Turkish government has secured the crucial support of the US government, with which it finalised a civilian nuclear co-operation agreement in May 2008.

The agreement gives Turkey access to US nuclear parts and expertise that are the basis of many reactor designs in use around the world.

Chris Stanton
Last Updated: June 15. 2010 8:03PM UAE / June 15. 2010 4:03PM GMT

Source: thenational.ae

June 17, 2010
UK to stop development aid to Russia and China

Mr Mitchell wants to redirect some of bilateral aid worth £2.9bn

Britain will stop giving aid money to China and Russia, as “it is not justifiable” any longer, the UK government has said.

International Developement Secretary Andrew Mitchell announced a review into how the UK funds overseas development work in around 90 countries.

“The money will be redirected towards those countries where they can make the most difference,” he said.

In 2008-09, China received more than £40m, while Russia got £190,000.

Britain’s annual bilateral aid budget stands now at £2.9bn.

Mr Mitchell said that, apart from Russia and China, “other country programmes which are less effective will be closed or reduced”.

The news came on the same day as the head of the Ukrainian presidential administration, Serhiy Lyovochkin, told journalists that Russia had agreed to lend Ukraine $4bn.

China is considered to be the fastest growing economy in the world, while Russia is also among the leaders.

Mr Mitchell said: “I am determined to get value for money across my department’s work and focus on the big issues such as maternal health, fighting malaria, and extending choice to women over whether and when they have children.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10334927, 16 June 2010

June 17, 2010
Turkish-Azeri Deal May Herald New Competition in Southern Corridor

Turkish-Azeri Deal May Herald New Competition in Southern Corridor

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 7 Issue: 115

June 15, 2010

By: Saban Kardas

On the sidelines of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) summit held in Istanbul, Turkey and Azerbaijan concluded agreements on natural gas cooperation. On June 7, during a ceremony attended by Turkish Prime Minister, Tayyip Recep Erdogan, Azeri President, Ilham Aliyev, the Turkish Energy Minister, Taner Yildiz, and his Azeri counterpart, Natiq Aliyev, signed an agreement which will end a two year long price dispute on Turkey’s gas imports from the first phase of Azerbaijan’s offshore Shah Deniz-I, as well as setting the volume and price for Turkey’s imports from the second phase of the field, expected to come online in 2016-17. A related agreement will regulate the terms and mechanisms for the sale and transit of Azeri gas to Europe through Turkey.

Turkey currently imports 6 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas from Shah Deniz-I, paying $120/thousand cubic meter (tcm), well below the current market prices. However, the original agreement allowed for price renegotiation, which is exactly what Azerbaijan asked for when the pricing terms expired in April 2008. As the negotiations were underway, Turkey continued to import gas, though stressing that it would compensate for the price differences retroactively. Despite several rounds of negotiations, which were eclipsed by the discussions on gas transit, the parties failed to bridge their differences, which also raised concerns in the West that the delays might undermine Nabucco and other projects seeking to ensure supply diversification from the Caspian basin to Europe (EDM, February 26). Moreover, the gas disagreements also aggravated the diplomatic row between Baku and Ankara, caused by Turkey’s efforts to normalize relations with Armenia, raising questions about future relations between the two fraternal countries (EDM, October 21, 2009).

Earlier, both parties announced that they had reached a breakthrough, and during Erdogan’s Baku visit in May, they expressed their determination to sign the deal in Istanbul (EDM, June 1). The recent deal, which apparently came about only after intense negotiations, signifies not only their willingness to reactivate the energy partnership, but also in repairing Turkish-Azeri strategic ties. As statements issued during Aliyev’s trip attest, Turkey will continue to place Baku at the center of its South Caucasus policy.

Still, energy is likely to remain the most important component of Turkish-Azeri ties. For instance, the Azeri State energy company SOCAR is already a major player in Turkey’s energy market, through its control of the country’s largest petrochemicals group PETKIM. Recently, it was announced that PETKIM would expand its operations through new multi-billion dollar investments in the coming years (www.azernews.az, June 3).

The exact details of the agreements have not been disclosed and some sources maintain that both parties still have to work towards elaborating many details. Yildiz declined to specify the revised price, indicating that it will be flexible in order to allow for adjustment to market conditions. Yildiz also added that it will be more favorable compared to what Turkey is currently paying to Russia (Anadolu Ajansi, June 8). However, Turkish media speculated that the price will be raised from $120 to $300/tcm. Turkey will have to pay around $1.5 to $2 billion to compensate for price differences. The price for Turkey’s imports from Shah Deniz-II, which will be around 6-7 bcm annually, is likely to be higher than $300 per tcm, and will be assessed by taking into account investment costs (www.haberturk.com, June 8).

The other major item, terms for the transit of further Azeri gas to Europe, was also settled. Ankara had been insisting on purchasing Azeri gas and then re-exporting it to Europe on its own terms, as was the case for Shah Deniz-I. Neither side clarified whether Turkey retained that right (Hurriyet Daily News, June 8), but Yildiz indicated that Turkey would be able to re-export the gas it imports from Azerbaijan in collaboration with PETKIM (Cihan, June 7). Some sources maintain that Azerbaijan will pay Turkey $45 per tcm in transit fees for its direct export to Europe, passing through Turkish territory (Sabah, June 8). There remains some uncertainty over who exactly will export Azeri gas to Europe, as Azeri sources failed to confirm that Turkey retains the re-exporting rights (www.enerjivadisi, June 9).

Previously, delays in negotiations with Turkey had invited the ire of Azerbaijan, because the development of the Shah Deniz-II had to be postponed. The resolution of the transit issue and the interest from different pipeline projects is definitely welcome news for Azeri officials, as they can now discuss with their European partners the commissioning of Shah Deniz-II. Both parties also publicized the agreement as a positive step that would facilitate other projects to transport gas to Europe, most notably Nabucco. Natiq Aliyev emphasized that they were willing to support Nabucco, but they still had not received any purchase commitment from Nabucco. Currently, Turkey is able to export Azeri gas to Greece through the Turkey-Greece Interconnector (TGI) which integrates Turkish and Greek grids. The planned Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which will run from Greece to Italy, also seeks to tap into Azeri gas.

Impending competition between Nabucco and other pipelines forming the EU’s Southern Corridor seems certain. While many believe Nabucco will be a non-starter without locking in Azeri gas, TAP has been awaiting the conclusion of the Turkish-Azeri negotiations.

Representatives from both TAP and Nabucco welcomed the Turkish-Azeri deal (www.today.az, June 8). Azeri officials, anticipating the country’s gas output to increase substantially in future, welcome such outside demand which will boost their export potential. However, as the initial phase of Shah Deniz-II might only have limited extra output after it was allocated for Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, it remains to be seen if Azerbaijan can supply all the Southern-corridor pipelines simultaneously at their desired levels. Turkish media maintain that Italy might soon sign a transit agreement with Ankara and a supply commitment agreement with Baku, which will commit the entire remaining volume from Shah Deniz-II to TAP, leaving no extra capacity for Nabucco (Referans, June 9). Yildiz stated that Turkey supports both projects and the final decision will be taken by the Shah Deniz consortium (ANKA, June 9). In any case, the Turkish-Azeri agreement might herald new competition in the Southern Corridor.

https://jamestown.org/program/turkish-azeri-deal-may-herald-new-competition-in-southern-corridor/

June 17, 2010
Foreign Ministers of the OIC countries recognize Khojaly massacre as a crime against humanity

A resolution was adopted today on the activities of the Islamic Conference Youth Forum for Dialogue and Cooperation (ICYF-DC) at the final plenary meeting of the 37th session of the Islamic Council of Foreign Ministers (ICFM) of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) held on 18-20 May 2010, in Dushanbe, Tajikistan. The resolution calls on the OIC Member States and the OIC institutions to actively participate in the activities of the “Justice for Khojaly” international civil awareness campaign and recognition of the Khojaly mass massacre as a “crime against humanity” in both international and national levels.

The document praises the work of the Forum, particularly the implementation of the program “Humanitarian catastrophes in the OIC countries throughout the XX century”, carried out together with ISESCO. The resolution also calls on Member-states to support the international campaign of “Justice for Khojaly” initiated by Mrs. Leyla Aliyeva, the General Coordinator on Intercultural Dialogue of ICYF-DC to disseminate the truth on Khojaly mass massacre among the international community.

“This is the first resolution, in which Ministers of foreign affairs from 57 countries, which came together in the second largest international organization after the United Nations, unambiguously voted for resolution using the term ‘crime against humanity’ as a definition and declared their position for the historical truth on Khojaly tragedy. The term has both political and international law components. It is being considered one of serious violations of the international humanitarian law, including genocide” said the Secretary General of ICYF-DC Ambassador Elshad Iskandarov who participated at the ICFM session in Dushanbe as a head of delegation.

“The facts that the document was adopted by the experts of foreign ministers of Member states and then by ministers with consensus is an indication of increasing confidence of the true nature of Khojaly genocide by the OIC. The current document assesses the Khojaly tragedy as the resolution adopted by Parliamentary Union of the OIC Member-states in January 2010 which creates a solid political and legal framework for the recognition of Khojaly mass massacre as a crime against humanity and to raise the issue of recognition in international level” mentioned E. Iskandarov while commenting the adopted resolution.

“Effective actions of the “Justice for Khojaly” campaign initiated and consistently coordinated by General Coordinator of the Forum Mrs. Leyla Aliyeva played important role in the formation of such a position of 57 OIC Member States. The resolution highly appreciated the work of the campaign and the Member States are called upon to actively participate in the campaign”, Secretary General of the ICYF-DC said.

The international civil awareness campaign “Justice for Khojaly” was launched in 2009 and was presented in more than 35 countries including OIC, European and Latin American countries.

Justice for Khojaly campaign

To be part of global awareness campaign and to have your voice heard at the highest political level visit:

It takes just a few second to send Petition to Wrold leader to ask them to recognize this tragedy as crime against humanity:

June 16, 2010