Category: Asia and Pacific

Slow Progress in Turkish-Armenian Normalization

Slow Progress in Turkish-Armenian Normalization

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 7 Issue: 139

July 20, 2010

By Saban Kardas

Turkey’s prospective participation in a six-day NATO exercise in Armenia in September, and the informal Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) meeting in Astana, reignited the debate on the stalled Turkish-Armenian normalization process. The Armenia 2010 exercise will focus on post-earthquake civil emergency drills.

A senior columnist in the daily newspaper, Radikal, Murat Yetkin, first publicized Turkey’s agreement to participate in the exercise and, if the need arose, the Turkish border would be opened to vehicles in order to supply the disaster-hit areas in the scenario. Local administrative sources were examining the condition of the transportation infrastructure, which corresponded with the US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, visiting the region, promoted speculation that it might lead to the “border opening” (Radikal, July 14).

According to a subsequent story in Hurriyet, Turkish diplomatic sources confirmed Ankara’s participation, involving three or four personnel, and added that they were also making the necessary preparations to temporarily re-open the Turkish-Armenian border. Such an opening of the border would involve the transfer of NATO equipment into Armenia, through the Dogukapi border crossing in the Turkish city of Kars, where the governor’s office concluded the roads and railways were in good condition, also adding that the crossing could stay open for a month (Hurriyet, July 15).

Turkish media speculated that such cooperation might help to reduce political tension, and this incident may serve as a model to test the ground for the long-delayed opening of the Turkish-Armenian border. However, Armenian diplomatic sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, signaled that they were not planning to request Turkey’s assistance in this matter. They dismissed the Turkish statement as “a public relations stunt aimed at burnishing Turkey’s image” (Radio Free Europe, July 16).

This harsh reaction underscored the extent of the divisions between Turkey and Armenia. After taking various groundbreaking steps in 2009, which culminated in the signing of the protocols in October, Turkey and Armenia failed to sustain the initial momentum. For its part, the Turkish government had to put the rapprochement process on the backburner, faced with resistance from the nationalist domestic opposition and the concerns raised by Azerbaijan. Nonetheless, Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, maintained on many occasions that Turkey remained committed to the spirit of normalization and would seize every opportunity to continue with the process. For Davutoglu, relations with Armenia remain a major challenge to his “zero problems with neighbors” policy. He maintains that the normalization process, though slow, still continues and if Armenia takes constructive steps, it could prove successful.

However, as Turkish leaders previously emphasized on various occasions, without any concrete progress in the Azeri-Armenian dispute, Turkey will not undertake further steps towards the normalization of its diplomatic relations with Armenia, including the re-opening of the border. Therefore, Turkey has urged the Minsk group to refocus on the Karabakh dispute on the one hand, and work to facilitate the resolution of this conflict on the other.

Responding to a question submitted by a Member of Parliament from the Nationalist Action Party during a parliamentary debate, Davutoglu defended the government’s policy, arguing that the Turkish-Armenian process also stimulated efforts to resolve the Azeri-Armenian dispute.

Davutoglu also noted that the negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan pertaining to the return of the occupied Azeri regions were underway. He indicated that negotiations have reached the level of discussing the details for the deployment of an international peacekeeping force in zones from which Armenian forces are withdrawn, though he denied rumors that Turkey also submitted a proposal to supply such peacekeeping units (Anadolu Ajansi, July 16).

Moreover, addressing the Karabakh dispute has been of great concern internationally, especially considering the fluctuating tensions in the region due to deadly armed exchanges between Azeri and Armenian forces along the ceasefire line.

Ahead of the informal meeting of the foreign ministers of the OSCE in Astana, expectations were raised that Azerbaijan and Armenia might achieve some progress. Prior to his departure for Astana, Azeri Foreign Minister, Elmar Mammadyarov, said that he was expecting that an Armenian withdrawal from the Kalbajar and Lachin regions, currently under Armenian occupation, would be tabled during the discussions in Astana. Since these issues were previously agreed upon through Russian mediation, he asked the Armenian side to abide by earlier promises. Nonetheless, he complained that Armenia was raising fresh issues, and deviating from the earlier consensus (www.azernews.az, July 16).

Baku argues that only after its demand for the immediate return of occupied territories is met, can it reciprocate on other demands by Armenia, such as the status of the Lachin corridor connecting Karabakh to Armenia. This position has also been supported by Turkey for some time, so that it could reenergize its own normalization process with Armenia. The meeting between Mammadyarov and his Armenian counterpart, Edward Nalbandian, in Astana as well as the efforts by the Minsk group co-chairs, however, failed to meet such expectations. The Minsk group released a statement stressing that “the efforts made so far by the parties to the conflict, were insufficient to overcome existing differences” and expressed “regret over recent developments that have exacerbated tensions in the region (www.azernews.az, July 17).

Following his meeting with Davutoglu, Mammadyarov held a press conference concerning his meeting with Nalbandian. He criticized his Armenian counterpart, arguing that the Armenian side made a last minute move and stepped back from a deal, despite the fact that they had come close to reaching an agreement. He expressed disappointment with the Armenian side, saying they were not interested in any progress (Dogan Haber Ajansi, July 17).

Davutoglu also regretted the failure to reach an agreement. In an apparent show of solidarity with his Azeri counterpart, he referred to the speculation about re-opening the border. He ruled out this possibility for the time being, adding that no one should have such expectations (Cihan Haber Ajansi, July 17). Last week’s developments underscored, once again, the complicated manner in which Turkish-Armenian normalization is mired in the Azeri-Armenian dispute.

https://jamestown.org/program/slow-progress-in-turkish-armenian-normalization/

July 21, 2010
Iran buys gasoline from Turkey, Chinese sellers

Iran is buying around half of its gasoline imports in July from Turkey and the rest from Chinese sellers, oil traders said.

Many gasoline sellers have stopped trading with Iran due to US sanctions on those that supply the Islamic Republic, making it more expensive for Iran to meet its import needs.

Iran would import around 90,000 barrels per day (bpd) of gasoline in July, steady from June, oil traders said.

www.iranoilgas.com,

July 11, 2010
Armenian woman seeks asylum in Turkey

Marian Gishyan, a mother of five children, who was thrown out of her house in Northern Avenue in 2004, is leaving for Turkey today, July 10, to seek asylum there.

Mariam lived in a 6-house in Northern Avenue. She was not allowed to privatize her house, the Hraparak newspaper reads. According to the source, the territory now belongs to Samvel Mairapetyan, the director of the Toyota-Yerevan Company and owner of the G2 TV company. Mariam Gishyan was offered U.S. $20,000. She refused, but even if she had taken the money she would never purchase a flat in Yerevan.

Marian Gighyan has the second disability group, and two of her children are epileptics. What will be the Turkish authorities decision? At present about 15,000 Armenian immigrants are living in Turkey.

http://news.am/eng/news/24632.html, July 10, 2010

July 11, 2010

THE NEWSLETTER Embassy of Azerbaijan

From: azerbaijan@azembassy.us

Subject: Newsletter of the Embassy of Azerbaijan – Vol.II


	THE NEWSLETTER Embassy of Azerbaijan Washington D. C.
Volume III, Issue # 8	July 7, 2010
In This Issue: Secretary Clinton visits Azerbaijan: Relations are “deep, important, and durable” American Jewish Committee delegation travels to Azerbaijan: “Azerbaijan is a critically important country” Armenian Occupation Costs USD 87 billion Azerbaijani receives U.S. President’s Education Award Previous Issues Contact Us	SECRETARY CLINTON VISITS AZERBAIJAN: RELATIONS ARE “DEEP, IMPORTANT, AND DURABLE” On July 4 U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton paid an official visit to Azerbaijan. She became the first U.S. Secretary of State to visit Azerbaijan in 18 years Secretary Clinton was received by President Ilham Aliyev. Energy and security cooperation between the two countries, as well as the resolution of the Armenia-Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh conflict were the major topics of discussions in Baku. At a joint press conference with Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov dedicated to the outcomes of the visit, Secretary Clinton praised the bonds between Azerbaijan and the U.S. as “deep, important, and durable”. “Our soldiers have stood shoulder-to-shoulder in Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan. And we deeply appreciate the commitment and sacrifice of the people and government of Azerbaijan, as we continue these important missions. Today the President and I discussed the ways of the deepening of this partnership”, the Secretary said. “We continue to support the efforts that are undertaken by the government to expand and protect free expression and independent media…We believe that there has been a tremendous amount of progress in Azerbaijan. But as with any country, particularly a young, independent country like this one, there is a lot of room for improvement. Since it’s the Fourth of July, I should say that when we began our journey toward freedom, independence, and democracy 234 years ago, we had a very long road that we are still not yet at the final destination,” Secretary Clinton said in response to a question on democracy and human rights protection. Back to top AMERICAN JEWISH COMMITTEE DELEGATION TRAVELS TO AZERBAIJAN: “AZERBAIJAN IS A CRITICALLY IMPORTANT COUNTRY” On July 4-5 an American Jewish Committee (AJC) leadership delegation led by the Committee’s Executive Director David Harris paid a visit to Azerbaijan The 11-member delegation was received by President Ilham Aliyev. The delegation also met with Chairman of Azerbaijan’s Milli Majlis (Parliament) Oqtay Asadov, Deputy Foreign Minister Vaqif Sadiqov and other officials. This was AJC’s second trip to Azerbaijan in the past two years. The first visit took place in August 2008. Earlier, in January 2008, AJC leadership met with President Aliyev on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. At that meeting, President Aliyev invited AJC to pay a visit to Azerbaijan. “Azerbaijan is a critically important country,” said David Harris following the visit. “We were delighted to be there at the same time as U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and a month after U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, underscoring Washington’s deep interest.” “It is important for Americans to understand the key role that Azerbaijan today plays in our nation’s counter-terrorism efforts, energy security, and military operations in Afghanistan,” added Harris. “And Jews and friends of Israel need to be aware of the long and rich history of the Jewish community in Azerbaijan, and of the country’s close and mutually beneficial ties with Israel.” “We were very warmly and graciously received by our Azerbaijani hosts,” Harris said. “Given the importance we attach to Azerbaijan, we shall look forward to our next visit and to frequent contact in between.” Back to top ARMENIAN OCCUPATION COSTS USD 87 BILLION According to Ali Hasanov, Chairman of Azerbaijan’s State Committee for Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), the total amount of damage suffered by the country due to the occupation of its territories by Armenia is estimated at 70 billion manat ($87 billion) He said the amount of damage and the total cost will be reevaluated after Armenia’s occupation of Azerbaijani territories ends and all Azerbaijani IDPs return to their previous homes in Karabakh. Hasanov said a large number of lawsuits by Azerbaijani IDPs against Armenia have been filed with the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg. He added that the Azerbaijani government is expected to increase spending from the State Oil Fund on the resettlement of IDPs. “The State Committee was ordered to start the resettlement of IDPs from dormitory rooms and to build a new settlement in Aghdam,” Hasanov said. “With all of the new projects the overall budget spending for IDPs will exceed $100 million in fiscal year 2010. Every single displaced family will be considered.” As a result of the occupation, around 750,000 Azerbaijanis were expelled from Azerbaijan’s Nagorno-Karabakh region and 7 adjacent districts in 1992-1993. Back to top AZERBAIJANI RECEIVES U.S. PRESIDENT’S EDUCATION AWARD Mehdi Huseynov, an eighth-grade student of the Gunston Middle School in Arlingon, Virginia, and a son of an employee of Azerbaijan’s Embassy to the U.S., has received the President’s Award for Educational Excellence signed by President Barack Obama and Secretary of Education Arne Duncan The President’s Education Awards Program was developed to recognize and honor students who have achieved high academic goals through hard work and dedication to learning. To be eligible for the President’s Award for Educational Excellence, students must meet the requirements of having a grade point average of 3.5 or better on a 4.0 scale. Since 1983, the program has provided individual recognition from the U.S. President and Secretary of Education to those students whose outstanding efforts have enabled them to meet challenging standards of excellence.

July 10, 2010

Foreign Business in Turkmenistan: to be or not to be

By Merdan Shakhnazarov

Open Door policy announced by Ashkhabad strongly increased the flow of foreign investors, hoping either to enter new market with their product or to profit from work contracts in formerly closed Turkmenistan. Evidently the power sector attracts the most foreign interest. But experts of oil and gas market often underestimate the risks of their business in Turkmenistan, and after first taste of the local reality give up their plans of conquering the market. Among the factors that influence the decision not to come to Ashkhabad are the following: imperfection of laws, corruption and lawlessness of public servants, financial difficulties, non-disclosure of information about failure of foreign investors on the local market. We shall consider some of these.

Corruption

International nongovernmental organization Transparency International regularly includes Turkmenistan in the list of most corrupted countries. This estimation should be some kind of indicator for foreign investors, wishing to start their business in that central Asian republic.

Evidences of corruption are to be traced not only in the state structure but in all the spheres of life. On one hand it seems to ease the process of getting contracts, while bribery makes communication with paper pushers easier. But it often turns out that businessmen spend a lot of money to establish contact with Turkmenian authorities but finally back at the bottom of the ladder.

In some cases foreign investors who came across with local reality are no more capable of doing business in such conditions. According to a businessmen from UAE, who planned to invest in development of Avaza resort, before he even started his activity he faced severe retaliatory measures of local law-enforcement authorities, who confiscated his immovable property.

At meanwhile the nephew of the President under cover of the name of G. Berdimukhamedov started to squeeze money from the Arabian businessman. These circumstances forced the businessmen to refuse from his plans in that country.

It is difficult for a western businessmen, used to transparent and open business to negotiate with Turkmenian partners, who are vivid representatives of eastern civilization with its contrivances and half-words. There have occurred some cases, when Turkmen representatives of authority agreed to sign a contract with foreign company, but the procedure of signing extended for an indefinite period.

Ashkhabad financial difficulties

Despite of launching Turkmenistan-China pipeline, expending gas pipeline in Iran, cutting down the volume of gas sales in Russia caused decrease of revenue side of the state budget. In that regard Ashkhabad tries to decrease the budgetary gap, cutting down the expenses for second-term projects, and in some cases putting them on hold at all.

For instance according to one of the employees of “Sekhil”, Turkish company, many of his nationals experience problems with financing in Turkmenistan now. For that reason the project of recreational resort in the resort area Avaza, developed by Sekhil by the order of Turkmenbashy complex of oil refinery plants is at risk.

Some other companies, including Ozaylar and Ichkale experience same problems. Of course the management of Turkish companies is strongly unsatisfied with arrears in payments by Turkmen authorities, for it forces them to carry on the works at their own cost or take credits.

Another indicator of financial difficulties, experienced by Ashkhabad, is borrowing funds from strategic partners. For instance in may of the previous year during his visit to PRC President Berdimukhamedov negotiated a grand from Beijing in the amount of $ 10 Mln.

This amount even though granted on non-repayable basis and without any interest, still has its aim to secure economical preferences and to strengthen PCR’s position on the national market.

Financial difficulties also force Turkmenistan to pay back foreign companies, carrying out important projects in Turkmenistan, by gas supply contracts. For example investments of the Iran Railways into construction of the a section of the railway Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan –Iran is to be repaid by Ashkhabad by supplying liquefied gas for 4 years.

Non-disclosure of information about failures of foreign investors

For foreign business considers the power sector to be the most attractive, it is important to notice, that investment into hydrocarbon field development is not always self-liquidate.

For example in 2002 American ExxonMobil decided to stop works in Turkmenistan and close representative offices in Balkanabad and Ashkhabad. This was due to failed drilling in Garashsyzlyk, one of Turkmenistan’s biggest minefields. American company was operating the «Garashsyzlyk-2» project, the respective production-sharing contract for 25 years was signed in 1998. Low commercial impact of the block forced Americans to cancel the contract halfway in spite of the discontent and pressure of the Turkmenistan party.

It’s also known, that in the beginning of 2000s TPAO, Turkish corporation experienced failure on one of the blocks, it had to scale down its activity and live the country.

Therefore only those foreign companies shall obtain a place in the hot Turkmen sun near gas jets, who are ready to make immense material and moral investments, fight the pressure of the «guardians of law» and to fall on hard times. At the same time they have to be ready to patiently wait for repayments and possibility of inefficient Turkmen field development.

July 7, 2010
US State Dept downplays spy case fallout

By Robert Burns

New Zealand Herald

10:57 AM Wednesday Jun 30, 2010

WASHINGTON – The scandal over an alleged Russian spy ring erupted at an awkward time for a White House that has staked its foreign policy record on improved cooperation with Moscow, but it appeared unlikely to do lasting damage to US-Russian relations.

The administration sought to dampen tensions, while the Russian government offered the conciliatory hope on Tuesday that US authorities would “show proper understanding, taking into account the positive character of the current stage of development of Russian-American relations.”

The White House response was notably restrained following the dramatic announcement that 11 people assigned a decade or more to illegally infiltrate American society had been arrested. They are accused of using fake names and claims of US citizenship to burrow into US society and ferret out intelligence as Russian “illegals” – spies operating without diplomatic cover.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs laboured to show that the arrests were a law enforcement matter – one not driven by the president, even though President Barack Obama was informed – and played down any political consequences.

CCID: 31622

Obama was asked about the matter by reporters twice on Tuesday. He declined to comment both times.

Gibbs said Obama was aware of the investigation before he met with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev at the White House on Thursday, although Gibbs said he did not know whether Obama knew then that the arrests were imminent. The two leaders did not discuss the issue, Gibbs said.

Officials in both countries left the impression that spy rings remain a common way of doing business.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin offered a message of restraint during a meeting at his country residence with former President Bill Clinton, who was in Moscow to speak at an investment conference.

“I understand that back home police are putting people in prison,” Putin said, drawing a laugh from Clinton. “That’s their job. I’m counting on the fact that the positive trend seen in the relationship will not be harmed by these events.”

The administration has made a high priority of improving relations with Russia.

At stake in the short term is a newly concluded nuclear arms control deal, dubbed New START, which requires a favourable vote in the US Senate and approval by the Russian legislature.

More broadly, Obama wants to build the foundation for a strategic partnership with Moscow – to increase security and economic and other cooperation with the former Cold War foe.

July 1, 2010