Category: Asia and Pacific

The great mediator

Sometimes Turkey really is a bridge between west and east

Turkish foreign policy

How can Mr Davutoglu help you?

IN JUNE 2006, days after a young Israeli private was captured by Hamas, Israel’s ambassador to Turkey paid a midnight visit to Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister. Gilad Shalit was feared to be gravely ill, perhaps even dead. Could Turkey help? Phone calls were made and favours called in. Mr Shalit turned out to be alive, and his captors promised the Turks they would treat him respectfully.

Turkey’s relations with Israel, once an ally, have worsened of late, and hit a fresh low in May, when Israeli commandos raided a Turkish ship carrying humanitarian supplies to Gaza, killing nine Turkish citizens. Yet Turkey continues to lobby Hamas for Mr Shalit’s release.

Turkey’s falling out with Israel has sparked a flurry of anguished commentary in the West about its supposed eastward drift under the mildly Islamist Justice and Development party, which has governed the country since 2002. Concern over its cosy relations with Iran, despite that country’s refusal to suspend suspect nuclear work, has run particularly high. Yet nobody complained in April 2007 when Turkey brokered the release of 15 British Royal Navy sailors who had been seized by Iran. Similarly, France was delighted in mid-May when a personal intervention by Turkey’s foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, secured the release of Clotilde Reiss, a French teacher being held in Iran on spying charges.

Turkey is the first stop for thousands of political refugees from Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and Central Asia. These include Mohammed Mostafei, an Iranian lawyer who took up the case of Sakineh Ashtiani, a woman facing death by stoning in Iran for alleged adultery. Mr Mostafei fled to Turkey earlier this month after receiving death threats (he has since gone to Norway). Now Turkey has discreetly taken up his client’s case (although Iran has turned down a Brazilian offer of asylum for Ms Ashtiani). It is also pressing Iran for the release of three American hikers who were arrested, on suspicion of “spying”, near the Iraq border a year ago and who have been rotting in Tehran’s notorious Evin prison ever since.

Turkey’s mediating skills have even aroused excitement in Africa. Mr Davutoglu recently revealed that Botswana had sought his help in fixing a territorial dispute with Namibia. Flattered though he was, however, Mr Davutoglu confessed that, for once, he was stumped.

http://www.economist.com/node/16847136?story_id=16847136&fsrc=rss, Aug 19th 2010

August 22, 2010
Will Turkey put a base in Azerbaijan in response to Russia-Armenia agreement?

Nakhchivan

That’s what the Russian newspaper Nezavismaya Gaezta says, citing Azeri news reports alleging Azeri dissatisfaction with their relations with Russia (summary via RT):

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan and Turkey may have prepared their “symmetrical answer to Yerevan and Moscow,” Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily said. A Turkish military base may be deployed in Azerbaijan as a result of the talks between Baku and Ankara, the paper noted.

“The topic was allegedly discussed during the recent visit of Turkey’s President Abdullah Gul to Baku and his meeting with Azerbaijan’s leader Ilkham Aliev,” the daily said. According to Azerbaijan’s media, the military base may be deployed in Nakhichevan autonomous republic, an exclave between Armenia and Turkey.

The relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan are so close that the question arises why Ankara has not yet deployed its military base in the friendly country, the paper asked. Baku may have expected Russia’s more effective role in settling the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, the daily explained.

Hoping that Russia could “influence its strategic ally – Yerevan – and help to promote the restoration of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity,” Baku “did not venture on strengthening a pro-Turkey vector or another one,” the daily stressed.

However, the authorities in Baku think that “expectations were overestimated” as the situation over Nagorno-Karabakh remains unchanged, the daily said.

“Baku, in fact, has determined the limitation of its expectations after which it will probably try to change the situation in its favor by other actions,” the daily said. “This limit is President Medvedev’s visit to Baku scheduled for September.”

(The original article, in Russian, here.)

One thing notably missing from this analysis is Russia’s alleged pending sale of S-300 air defense systems to Azerbaijan (which Russia continues to not deny), and which obviously should change Baku’s perception of whether or not Russia is selling it out.

And as I’ve discussed before, all of this speculation about a Turkish military base in Azerbaijan seems to be coming solely from Azerbaijan, and not at all from Turkey. And it’s hard to imagine would Turkey would gain from having a base in Nakhchivan.

Still, as EurasiaNet has reported, Turkey has increased its ties to Nakhchivan, and has at least spoken vaguely of military cooperation:

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan went still further, noting that “Nakhchivan is exposed to various threats from the Armenian state.”

“Therefore, military cooperation between Turkey and Azerbaijan and the NAR [Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic] is one of the major components of our relations,” Erdogan said.

Azerbaijan maintains a base in Nakhchivan that has received heavy Turkish support in the past, but no official information is available about the current scope of military cooperation between the two countries in the exclave.

And things are changing pretty quickly, at least in geopolitical time, in the relations between Turkey and Armenia, Turkey and Russia and Turkey and Azerbaijan. So we shouldn’t be too surprised by further big moves to come.

, August 20, 2010

August 21, 2010
Armenia, Russia Sign Extended Defense Pact

20.08.2010

Hasmik Smbatian

Armenia and Russia have signed a raft of agreements, including a protocol that extends the lease of the Russian military base in the South Caucasus country for nearly a quarter of a century.

The deal signed after talks between visiting Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and his Armenian counterpart Serzh Sarkisian in Yerevan on Friday consolidates Russia’s military presence in the volatile region crisscrossed with pipelines in exchange for security guarantees to Armenia.

In the presence of the two countries’ leaders signatures to the document were put by Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian and his Russian counterpart Anatoly Serdyukov.

The defense pact, which is an upgrading of a 1995 treaty allowing Russian ground and air forces to be stationed in Armenia’s northwestern city of Gyumri near the border with Turkey, extends the Russian presence in the South Caucasus state from the initial 25 years to 49 years, that is, to 2044.

It also expands the Russian mission from protecting only the interests of the Russian Federation, to also ensuring the security of the Republic of Armenia and commits Moscow to supplying Armenia with modern and compatible weaponry and special military hardware.

The move is widely viewed in Armenia as a means to discourage neighboring Azerbaijan from committing aggression. Equally, it is likely to become a source of concern in Azerbaijan, which has an unresolved conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh fought a three-year secessionist war against Azerbaijan in the early 1990s. The currently disputed region has been de-facto independent since the 1994 ceasefire mediated by Russia. Moscow is also one of the three principal negotiators, along with Washington and Paris, in continuing talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Speaking in Yerevan on Friday, President Medvedev said the protocol prolonging the treaty on the operation of Russia’s military base in Armenia is aimed

Armenia — President Serzh Sarkisian (R) and his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev attend a ceremony of documents signing at the presidential palace in Yerevan, 20Aug2010

at “maintaining peace and security in the entire South Caucasus.”

Medvedev also stressed that peace in the region is “very important” to Russia and that Moscow remains loyal to its commitments as an ally of Armenia.

Responding to the media question about Russia’s possible reaction in the event of developments threatening the existence of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh, given the war rhetoric heard from Azerbaijan, Medvedev, in particular, said: “The task of the Russian Federation as a major state situated in the region, the most powerful state economically and militarily, is to maintain peace and order. But we also have our allied commitments that we have with members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Republic of Armenia is a member of this organization… Russia treats its commitments as an ally very seriously.”

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) groups Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan and calls for allied assistance should any of its members suffer aggression.

At the news conference Sarkisian praised the deal, which he said would expand the sphere of Russia’s “geographic and strategic” responsibilities, meaning that the base will not only be responsible for protecting the perimeter of the former Soviet Union border, i.e. with Iran and Turkey, but also beyond them.

“The Russian side has made a commitment to ensure the military security of the Republic of Armenia and to cooperate in equipping our armed forces with advanced weaponry,” Sarkisian said.

At the same time, Sarkisian stressed that Armenia continues to stand for a peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict “without application of force or threat of force.”

Sarkisian also thanked Medvedev for his mediatory efforts as well as for “understanding the meaning of the balance of forces in the region as an important factor of not allowing provocations and preventing militaristic ambitions.”

Armenia — Presidents of Armenia and Russia take part in the re-opening of 19th century Russian military cemetery, Gyumri, 20Aug2010

Medvedev, for his part, said he was ready to continue his mediatory efforts and work with both Azerbaijan and Armenia to help find a political solution “based on mutually acceptable agreements both within the general work of the OSCE Minsk Group and in bilateral contacts with Armenia and Azerbaijan.”

Analysts agree that the new deal with Armenia puts Russia on a stronger military footing in the South Caucasus where it also has bases in Georgia’s breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

In Yerevan representatives of Armenia and Russia also signed four other documents, including an agreement concerning the construction of new energy units for Armenia’s ageing nuclear power plant.

In the afternoon Sarkisian and Medvedev attended a ceremony in Gyumri inaugurating the Hill of Honor, a restored Russian military cemetery founded in the 19th century as the final resting place for many Russian officers and soldiers killed in Russo-Turkish wars.

Later on August 20, the presidents of Armenia and Russia attended the opening of an informal summit of CSTO leaders hosted by Yerevan.

https://www.azatutyun.am/a/2132965.html

August 21, 2010
Blast Kills 7 In Area Of China Plagued By Ethnic Strife

by The Associated Press

August 19, 2010

A bomb attack killed seven people and wounded 14 Thursday in China’s far west region of Xinjiang, an area beset by ethnic conflict and separatist violence.

The target of the attack wasn’t known, although an overseas activist for the region’s native Uighur ethnic group said the victims included members of the security forces.

The blast went off after a man drove a three-wheeled vehicle laden with explosives into a crowd of people in a suburb in Aksu city in southwestern Xinjiang, said Hou Hanmin, a spokeswoman for the Xinjiang government.

“Police say it was an intentional act because the suspect was carrying explosive devices,” Hou told a hastily arranged news conference in the regional capital of Urumqi, about 400 miles from Aksu.

She said the suspect, who was injured, was captured immediately.

Some of the wounded were in serious condition. “The casualties are innocent civilians of different ethnic minority backgrounds,” she said.

Xinjiang has been the site of ethnic conflict in recent years, including riots last summer when long-standing tensions between the Turkic Muslim Uighurs and China’s majority Han flared into open violence in Urumqi. The government said 197 people were killed, while hundreds of people were arrested and about two dozen sentenced to death. Many other Uighurs remain unaccounted for and are believed to be in custody.

While the riots marked China’s worst ethnic violence in decades, Xinjiang has seen a series of bombings and other violence, including attacks on security forces around the time of the Beijing Olympics in 2008. The government also says it has broken up several groups intent on carrying out attacks, including a bomb-making operation near Aksu in 2009 and a gang last month that it said was linked to the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, a banned militant organization advocating independence for Xinjiang.

Anti-government sentiments among Uighurs are fed by the ruling Communist Party’s heavy-handed controls over their language, culture and Islamic faith, along with resentment of Chinese migrants and a perception that they are being favored economically to the detriment of Xinjiang’s native population.

The government claims attacks are often planned by exile Uighurs overseas, including across the border in Central Asia or Pakistan.

The target of Thursday’s attack remained unclear and it wasn’t known whether it was motivated by separatist or extremist views. Homemade bombs are used throughout China to seek revenge over personal or property disputes, and the country this year has seen a series of gory rampage attacks by people using knives, guns and construction equipment.

In contrast, past separatist attacks in Xinjiang have almost always been aimed clearly at government targets or other symbols of Han Chinese influence.

Germany-based Uighur activist Dilxat Raxit said security forces were the apparent target, with reports saying victims included one policeman and 14 members of a uniformed auxiliary force charged with monitoring the Uighur population. He declined to give the source of the information other than to say it was highly reliable.

Xinjiang Governor Nur Bekri, speaking at a news conference Thursday before the explosion was reported, said the government was battling separatist forces in Xinjiang.

“I believe we face a long and fierce and very complicated struggle. Separatism in Xinjiang has a very long history, it was there in the past, it is still here now and it will continue in the future,” Nur said.

Raxit said the authorities’ security crackdown may be encouraging further violence.

“Since last year’s riots, we have seen … systematic oppression and provocation,” said Raxit, whose World Uyghur Congress officially opposes violence.

August 19, 2010
Terror raids across Melbourne

Paul Millar

Anti-terrorism raids on homes across Melbourne this morning were part of a national effort, with properties in Sydney and Perth also targeted.

In a joint blitz, police executed a number of search warrants as part of their investigation into organisations funding overseas terrorists.

The counter-terrorism teams include the Australian Federal Police, and officers from New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia.

The raids are part of an investigation into the funding of terrorist organisations.

“The community can be assured that this investigation is not related to any terrorist-related threat or incident,” a police spokeswoman said.

The Melbourne raids took place in Glenroy, Coolaroo, Pascoe Vale, and Dandenong.

Police raided the offices of the Kurdish Association of Victoria on Fawkner Road, Pascoe Vale, before dawn.

They sealed off the area and entered the offices.

Police seized boxes full of documents in the raids.

They also took desktop computers, hard drives and bagged evidence to waiting police cars.

Local Kurds, however, said the raids were nothing more than a political stunt.

Sniffer dogs combed the scene and association members were barred from entering the property.

Up to seven police cars were at the scene at first light.

The raids are believed to be linked to Kurdish groups providing funding to terror organisations overseas.

The Kurdish Association of Victoria was established to help newly arrived Kurdish refugees and migrants.

Its website says it provides a range of services for the Kurdish community, including settlement, advocacy, referral, education and health issues.

It also offers cultural and recreational programs in the areas of folk dancing, traditional music and Kurdish language.

The raids are believed to be linked to a crackdown on funding for the Kurdish Workers’ Party, which is listed as a terror organisation internationally. The PKK’s goal is to establish an independent Kurdish state.

with Reid Sexton

, 19 August 2010

August 19, 2010
Russia to prolong military presence in Armenia

YEREVAN, Aug 18 (Reuters) – Armenia said on Wednesday it had agreed to extend the lease on a Russian military base in the South Caucasus country until 2044, strengthening Moscow’s military presence in the strategic region.

The deal will be signed during a visit to Yerevan by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Thursday and Friday.

Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian confirmed the lease extension in an interview with Rossiya-24 television.

It will prolong for decades Russia’s military presence in Armenia, its chief strategic and economic ally in a region criss-crossed by pipelines carrying Central Asian and Caspian oil and gas to Europe.

The Russian military also has troops in two breakaway regions of neighbouring Georgia, where it is building up bases in the wake of a five-day war over rebel South Ossetia in 2008.

Russia and Armenia signed a deal in 1995 allowing the Russian base in the town of Gyumri on Armenia’s closed western border with Turkey to operate for 25 years. Nalbandian said the changes would extend that deal to 49 years from 1995.

He said the deal would spell out that the Russian base would help secure the landlocked country of 3.2 million people, where the spectre of renewed conflict with oil-producing Azerbaijan over rebel Nagorno-Karabakh is never far away.

“And in realising those goals, the Russian side will assist in providing Armenia with weapons and modern military equipment,” Nalbandian said. Some in the Armenian opposition have complained the deal undermines the country’s independence.

Russia has several thousand soldiers in Gyumri, who help patrol Armenia’s western border with NATO-member Turkey. Ankara closed the frontier in 1993 in solidarity with close Muslim ally Azerbaijan during the war over Nagorno-Karabakh.

The mountain region threw off Azeri rule in the early 1990s with Armenian backing. A ceasefire was agreed in 1994 but a peace deal has never been agreed and Azerbaijan frequently threatens to take the territory back by force.

Russia is part of a mediating group including France and the United States trying for the past 15 years, without success, to forge a peace deal.

Although it has traditionally enjoyed close relations with Armenia, Russia has sought in recent years to develop ties with Azerbaijan as it vies with the West for access to energy reserves in the Caspian Sea.

August 18, 2010