Turkish Forum

Category: Turkmenistan

  • Analysis: Turkey helps pull the rug from under Nabucco

    Analysis: Turkey helps pull the rug from under Nabucco

    By Ferruh Demirmen, Ph.D.
    Houston, Texas

    Judging from the press reports, one would not know it, but Turkey, the presumed supporter of the Nabucco gas project, recently helped kill the project.

    It was not to be so. After all, the Nabucco project was designed not only to supply natural gas to the EU from the Caspian region and the Middle East, but also help Turkey meet its domestic needs. The intergovernmental agreement signed in Ankara amid media publicity in July 2009, followed by parliamentary seal of approval in March 2010, gave all the indications that Turkey would stand by the project.

    Turkey’s BOTAS was one of the 6 partners that developed the project. The Vienna-based NIC (Nabucco International Company) represented the consortium formed by the partners. The 3,900 km-long pipeline’s planned destination was Baumgarten in Austria.

    Not that the project was ideal for Turkey (). But compared to its rivals ITGI (Italy-Greece Interconnector) and TAP (Trans-Adriatic Pipeline), not to mention a host of “exotic” Black Sea options flagged by Azerbaijan, it was the most mature and most comprehensive gas pipeline project to connect Turkey and the EU to the supply sources to the east. Strategically it deserved Turkey’s support. It was the only project among its rivals that aimed to transport Azeri as well as non-Azeri gas. Turkmen gas was a high-priority objective.

    Surely, with its ambitious design capacity of 31 billion m3 (bcm)/year, Nabucco was under stress. What was holding the project from implementation was the lack of feed (throughput) gas. The feed gas problem caused delays in the project, and the capital costs soared (up to EUR 14-15 billion by most recent estimates). The Azeri Shah Deniz-II gas was identified as the initial start-up gas as from 2017-2018.

    But Azerbaijan, that owned the gas, and the Shah Deniz consortium that would share and produce it, were non-committal about supplying gas. That meant major headache for Nabucco. Turkmen gas input required the cooperation of Azerbaijan, and would be added to the gas stream at a later date.

    In the meantime, the rival projects ITGI and TAP emerged. Like Nabucco, these also counted on Shah Deniz-II gas for throughput. A winner-take-all pipeline contest was in the works.

    Still, Nabucco had a good fighting chance. On October 1, 2011, NIC submitted its proposal to the Shah Deniz consortium tabling transport terms. The rival projects ITGI and TAP did the same. A high-stakes waiting game would then start, during which the Shah Deniz consortium would pick the winner.

    The spoiler project

    All that changed when BP (British Petroleum), at the last minute before the October 1 deadline, came up with a new, “in-house” project: SEEP (South-East Europe Pipeline). It was a shrewd move, and immediately caught the attention of the Shah Deniz consortium – where BP is the operator and a major (25.5%) stake holder. The Azeri partner SOCAR, in particular, quickly warmed up to BP’s proposal.

    Instead of building a new pipeline across the Turkish territory, SEEP envisioned the use of BOTAS’ existing network (with upgrades) in Turkey and construction of new pipelines and their integration with existing interconnectors past Turkey. Azeri gas would be the feed gas. The destination would still be Austria, but the cost would be much less than that of Nabucco.

    Nabucco had come under threat.

    Behind the scenes

    Events behind the scenes further undermined Nabucco. On October 25 Ankara and Baku signed an intergovernmental agreement in Izmir in western Turkey. Details released to the press were sketchy, but one of the accords reached was to use initially BOTAS’ existing network in Turkey, and later build a new pipeline when needed, to ship Shah Deniz II gas to Turkey and the EU. Starting in 2017 or 2018, of the total 16 bcm gas to be produced annually from the Shah Deniz-II phase, Turkey would receive 6 bcm, and the rest 10 bcm would be shipped to the EU.

    Azerbaijan would be the direct seller of gas to the EU, with Turkey being a mere bridge or transit route.

    No mention was made of Nabucco, ITGI, TAP, or SEEP in the press release, but the footprints of SEEP were unmistakable.

    Demise of Nabucco

    Still worse news followed. On November 17, during the Third Black Sea Energy and Economic Forum held in Istanbul, SOCAR chief Rovnag Abdullayev announced that a new gas pipeline, which he named “Trans-Anatolia,” would be built in Turkey from east to west under the leadership of SOCAR. The new pipeline would deliver Shah Deniz II gas to Turkey and Europe.

    Azerbaijan and Turkey had already started working on the pipeline project, he said, and others could possibly join later. The planned capacity was at least 16 bcm/year –large enough to absorb all future Azeri exports after depletion of Shah Deniz II.

    While not stated so, the announcement made Nabucco effectively redundant. The announcement was an offtake from the Izmir agreement, and signaled a surprising, 180-degree turn on the part of Turkey on Nabucco.

    Turkey’s energy minister Yildiz Taner tried to put the best face in the press by claiming that Trans-Anatolian would “supplement” Nabucco, while the NIC chief Reinhard Mitschek expressed his “confidence” in Nabucco.

    More recently SOCAR’s Abdullayev maintained that Nabucco was still “in the race,” and NIC started the pre-qualification process for procurement contractors.

    For all these business-as-usual pronouncements, however, there was little doubt that Nabucco had received a fatal blow. If Trans-Anatolia, dedicated to Shah Deniz II gas, is built, Nabucco will lose its start-up gas, and with it the justification for a new infrastructure across Turkey.

    Without synergy from the Azeri gas, a full-fledged Nabucco project dedicated solely to Turkmen gas will also have a virtually zero chance of implementation.

    Nabucco, in its present form, was dead. (See also . A much-modified, “truncated” version of Nabucco, starting at the Turkey-Bulgaria border, may well emerge, however.

    Conclusion

    With Nabucco frozen in its tracks, the geopolitics of energy in Turkey and its neighborhood has changed dramatically ). What is surprising is that Turkey assisted in undermining a project that it had long supported. It was a project that encompassed both Azeri and Turkmen gas. To reduce its dependence on Russia for its gas exports, Turkmenistan has been eager to ship its gas to the West.

    Azerbaijan, apparently viewing Turkmen gas exports to the West a threat to its own gas exports, has been reluctant to cooperate with Ashgabat on this issue.

    Turkey acceded to the aspirations of the Azeri brethren, while ignoring those of the Turkmen brethren. Over the past year, as the EU delegates approached repeatedly Ashgabat for Turkmen gas (vis-à-vis a TCGP or Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline), Turkey chose to stay on the sidelines. This was a strategic mistake.

    Both Baku and Ashgabat could benefit from a synergy between the Azeri and Turkmen gaz exports, and Turkey could use gas from both sources to enhance its energy security. Being pro-active on TGCP and nudging Azerbaijan in that direction would have been a wise move for Turkey. On balance, there is little doubt that on the gas issue Azerbaijan has played its cards well – perhaps too well!

    ferruh@demirmen.com

  • Turkey seeks to institutionalize relations with Turkic republics

    Turkey seeks to institutionalize relations with Turkic republics

    CEREN KUMOVA / AYDIN ALBAYRAK, ANKARA

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    President Abdullah Gül gives a speech at an international meeting to mark the 20th year of the independence of Turkic republics.

    As the 20th anniversary of independence arrives for the Turkic republics, Turkey is reviewing its connections with the countries it deems “brothers,” looking for a more institutionalized touch that speaks more to the mind than to the heart.

    Although these countries, namely Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, have traditionally held priority of place amongst Turkey’s bilateral ties with other countries, the arrival of the 20th anniversary of their independence has prompted Turkey to review its long-standing policy toward them. What has been accomplished between the countries, popularly claimed to be “different states of the same nation,” in these 20 years is a clear indication that it might be high time for Turkey to build on the strong ties, but with solid accomplishment that speaks for the pledges.

    Turkey has been reviewing its policy in a way that looks to balance ties with regard to past issues to give birth to solutions, Turkish officials told Sunday’s Zaman on the sidelines of an international meeting Turkey hosted in celebration of the anniversaries. These statements confirm the obvious fact that in spite of the great importance Turkey attaches to its Turkic brothers, relations with these countries have not always evolved into solid cooperation; to the contrary, the ties have loosened due to Turkey’s naïve and mistaken conviction that they can be maintained without much effort because of the historic and ethnic ties. Now Turkey seems to be aligning its foreign policy in a way that would close the gap and revive old partnerships.

    Twenty years ago when the Turkic states acquired their independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Turkish political leaders were quite enthusiastic about the prospects this new state of affairs offered Turkey: The first initiatives towards the region were mainly based on emotions, in the process of which, Turkey emerged as a protective elder brother, which caused drawbacks over the long-run when the role was too much to deliver. Twenty years later, it is all the more clear for Turkey that it may not actually be the right way to build lasting relations, as for some time now the motivation behind relations between the “brotherly” countries has progressively evolved into a system where the interests of the parties involved are more important than emotions.

    As a result, cooperation between the Turkic countries has increasingly gotten better, although some problems still persist between these countries themselves, as a result of which the Nakhchivan Agreement was signed between Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, while the two others, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, remained outside, on Oct. 3, 2009. The agreement paved the way for the foundation of the Cooperation Council of Turkic Speaking States (CCTS), which became operational at a summit in 2010 in İstanbul, laying the groundwork to hopefully put the council on a more solid track.

    The next step in the council meetings is scheduled for Astana, where ministers of economy come together on Oct. 13, followed by another meeting of foreign ministers on Oct 21. Also that month the heads of the Turkic states will meet at the first get-together of the CCTS, proving that the long-desired institutionalization may now be under way for the Turkic republics and Turkey.

    Emotions cause for past disappointments

    Since the countries enjoyed a close bond and a common world vision without much effort from either side, heartfelt expectations sometimes melted into disappointment — a feeling Turkey is trying to eradicate by putting affairs on solid ground to foster political, economic, cultural and social ties between the states.

    The international meeting held in Turkey earlier this week on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the independence of the Turkic republics is a clear indication that the countries are eager to come together on the diplomatic track and alternative avenues, define problems and look for solutions to existing issues. “Turkey’s dream in the ’90s of forming an economic union with the newly emerged Turkic countries did not come true,” Halil Akıncı, secretary-general of the CCTS and a former ambassador, noted as he co-chaired a session during the Ankara meetings of Oct. 5 and 6. Akıncı added that the formation of institutional bodies between the states makes it easier to track progress and ensures that problems do not only get “whined about” but are put on an agenda to be solved. “Past issues stemmed from over-emotional reactions between the Turkic republics; it is high time we emerge from that,” Akıncı stated at an evaluation session on Thursday.

    The Turkic Council, Akıncı noted, would initially deal with economic progress but continue with a second phase concerning the cultural and educational fields. To this end, Akıncı said a common history book would be published, presenting the shared history of the republics and that a Turkic Academy would be founded to study the culture of the Turkic republics. “The 20 years of relations between Turkic states have been fruitful,” commented Bülent Aras, chairman of Center for Strategic Research (SAM), a research body founded under the umbrella of the Turkish Foreign Ministry, in a quick interview with Sunday’s Zaman on the margin of the meeting. “There is a great tendency for cooperation, and steps we cannot downplay have been taken,” Aras noted but admitted that the current level of developments between the states was not enough. “We have developed a fresh perspective in our relations; more cooperation is sure to come in the future,” Aras added, hinting that Turkey is indeed changing its attitude toward the Turkic republics.

    Obstacles

    The bonds between the six states are also affected by a complex interwoven web of relations with each other, as well as with other parties, which have a claim on the dynamics of the region. The last instance of a dispute between Turkey and its major Turkic ally, Azerbaijan, erupted in 2009 when Turkey tried to normalize relations with Armenia through outlining a roadmap that would make the dysfunctional border between the neighbors operational again. However, Azerbaijan lashed out at the possibility of normalization before a solution is found to the Armenian occupation of a number of Azeri enclaves around Nagorno-Karabakh, which is why Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in the first place.

    In the case of waiving visa requirements between Azerbaijan and Turkey, it was Iran that intervened and blocked the prospect, saying that it would ask to benefit from the same privilege if Turkey was given the green light.

    An additional debate that usually comes up on the economic sidelines between the nations concerns energy prices, since Turkey is the buyer and transporter of large amounts of Azeri natural gas.

    Touching on difficulties facing Turkic states in their quest for better cooperation, Mehmet Seyfettin Erol, a professor of international relations at Gazi University in Ankara, told Sunday’s Zaman in an interview that under the surface, there was much to be considered for relations to evolve to the desired level. Hailing the establishment of the CCTS, founded with the Nakhchivan Agreement, which is “the best move Turkey has ever made in Central Asia,” Erol stated most plans to increase cooperation have remained at their initial stages due to a large number of obstacles.

    Lamenting difficulties the Turkic republics face in their diplomatic connections, Erol added that Turkey could only improve relations through deeply rooted diplomatic tracks, which necessitate more institutionalization from all ends. Although the academic stressed that the states wanted more institutionalization, he noted the current level of ties remained at the initial phase of intentions and should be backed by solid plans to move on to the next phase.

    His words were confirmed by Dr. Aydar Amrebaev, deputy director of the Kazakhstan Institute for World Economy and Politics (IWEP), at the Thursday session of the international meeting, as he spoke of the problems within the Turkic states. “There are no representatives from Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. As the Turkic world, we need to solve the problems of the Caspian region,” Amrebaev stated. Not only Amrebaev but also Associate Professor Bulat Sultanov, director of the Kazakhstan Institute of Strategic Research, underlined that relations should be handled on an equal basis, implying that Kazakhstan has no need of aid from Turkey but needs cooperation in many fields, including defense and security.

    www.sundayszaman.com, 09 October 2011

  • IMPERIAL NATIONALISM & TURKISH UNION

    IMPERIAL NATIONALISM & TURKISH UNION

    Republic of Turkey , born from the ashes of a 600-year Empire and having the character of independence , has pioneered many freedom movements which resulted with the establishment of new free countries within the first half of 20th century . The founders of the Republic under the leadership of Ataturk set up this new state by giving the whole nation  , desolated and impoverished , the spirit of resistance and by getting their rights with force against the Western Allies at that time ; therefore , they deserve our feelings of gratitude and respect .

    Today , at this point , we , as Turkey , need to follow much more active government policies . Personally , I strongly believe that the nationalism concept taking place among the founding principles of the Republic  should be considered as Imperial Nationalism . In other words , Turkey , will exert its power and authority in every piece of land which it already exists or existed before and which it strongly wishes to exist in the future . No need to say , this is not an enlargement basing on the military power , but on the contrary , an enlargement policy by using all the historical and cultural close relations and by creating a land of attraction for other states and people . Military power must always be respected and must create hesitation among the possible enemies .

     First of all , I want to start wit a basic fact of creation : every entity in the universe has an energy and the power of this energy is directly proportional to its mass .

     If we apply this fact to politics , the way to gain power in world politics goes through creating unity , as our ancestors wisely said “union makes us strong” . Examples are many : USA today , Ottoman & Roman Empires in the past … Of course , the age of empires ended long time ago , but there is always a future for the unions . Even the United States , despite its present power and influence , continuously brainstorms about establishing a One-World-Government under the authority of the United Nations controlled & directed by the USA .

     Under the light of the basic reality above , Turkey , in order to be effective in world politics , needs to unite . The candidates for setting up a union stand next to us : Azerbaijan , Kazakhstan , Turkmenistan , Uzbekistan , Kyrgyzstan and , due to geographical and historical ties , Georgia and Tajikistan . Except the last two , all Turkish origin states … This unification process can first start with the establishment of confederation and may end up with a federation .

     Due to its historical experience and the effectiveness in state establishment , Turkey must perform a leadership for establishing “Eurasia Federation” consisting of the eight states above . This new Federation will represent  a union covering approximaely 5 million square kilometers and a population of 150+ million , which is hard to ignore .

     It is obvious that many of the other actors in the world politics will try every way in order to prevent such a powerful union . Moreover , the present administrators in these eight countries will be reluctant in giving up the power they currently use . However , nobody can claim that it will be easy . I personally do believe that the people forming the nations of those states will look at this unification idea with sympathy .

    Finally , the last but not least , this new “Eurasia Federation” will need a technology-creating reliable partner in order to set up a confederation . That partner is JAPAN . Imagine Japan and Turkey with their own distinctive and leading characteristics and , right beside them , all other participating countries with their natural and social wealth . The future lies in the united political and social entities .

    Even the idea itself is exciting !… Don’t you think this is worth trying ???

  • Turkmen students studying in Turkey to fly home for summer vacation at half price

    Turkmen students studying in Turkey to fly home for summer vacation at half price

    Turkmen students studying in Turkey to fly home for summer vacation at half price

    Turkmen students studying in the educational establishments of the Turkish Republic in accordance with the intergovernmental and inter-sectoral agreements will fly home for summer vacation and back to Turkey by special flights operated by state of national service “Turkmenistan Airlines”.

    As the Turkmenistan.ru correspondent reports from Ashgabat, “Turkmenistan Airlines” will provide airliners for transportation of students from Istanbul to Ashgabat for summer vacation and back to Turkey.

     

    “Turkmenistan Airlines” will pay 50% of the air fare, and students will pay the remaining part.

    © TURKMENISTAN.RU, 2011

  • Turkey Duns Turkmen for $1Bln

    Turkey Duns Turkmen for $1Bln

    ASHGABAT, Turkmenistan — Turkish President Abdullah Gul met with his counterpart in Turkmenistan last week for urgent talks thought to be related to $1 billion in outstanding bills owed to Turkish construction companies that have revamped the capital city.

    turk

    Turkish companies have played a leading role in transforming this old sleepy post-Soviet backwater into a city of soaring marble-clad government offices and apartment blocks. But a report last month by risk analyst D&B said 25 Turkish firms are preparing to take legal action against Turkmenistan over the hitherto unexplained nonpayment.

    Turkish media reported that Gul’s visit is aimed at recovering the debt and heading off complaints to the International Center for Settlement of Investments Disputes, or ICSID. Several Turkish businessmen said they believed it to be the central issue of Gul’s visit, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of imperiling their investments in the tightly controlled Central Asian nation.

    Gul himself was coy on the nature of the visit, but warned what was at stake before setting out. “With my visit, we will be reviewing all aspects of our cooperation in the fields of economy, trade, energy, investments and education,” Gul said. “Turkmenistan is the country where Turkish businessmen have undertaken the largest number of projects in Central Asia,” he said, adding that Turkish companies have developed projects worth $21 billion since Turkmenistan gained independence in 1991.

    Turkey’s daily newspaper Hurriyet reported in April that the Turkmen government was refusing to pay Turkish companies $1 billion owed for building work. It also said Gul, who is known to take a close interest in Turkish investors abroad, had scheduled a trip to discuss the issue with Turkmen officials.

    Foreign companies based in Turkmenistan, run as an opaque and authoritarian fiefdom since independence, are normally highly reluctant to publicize problems with the government. Turkish builder Ickale Insaat broke ranks late last year, however, when it filed a complaint against the country with the ICSID.

    “More are to follow,” said Ozan Ickale, of the Ankara-based builder. “The Turkish companies are slowly all seeking their rights through arbitration.” He said a number of Turkish contractors have been jailed in Turkmenistan or are barred from leaving the country “for simply seeking their rights.” Ickale itself is owed over $50 million, he said. “Not only have we stopped our activities, but we were lucky to have come out of there,” he said.

    Ickale said the Turkish government has promised to help them. He said he did not know if the president was expected to discuss their grievances in Turkmenistan. Ickale said three other companies had cases pending at the ICSID.

    It is unclear what would have prompted a delay of payments by the Turkmen government, although revenues were reportedly badly hit in 2009, when Russia stopped buying the country’s gas following a pipeline explosion for which both sides denied responsibility. China has since stepped in to buy large amounts of gas, but the Turkmen government will likely face straitened financial conditions over the next few years as its borrows and spends billions on developing its large energy reserves.

    via Turkey Duns Turkmen for $1Bln | Business | The Moscow Times.

  • Turkmen judges, prosecutors learn from Turkish judicial system

    Turkmen judges, prosecutors learn from Turkish judicial system

    Friday, December 17, 2010 – Judges and prosecutors from Turkmenistan wound up a one-week trip to Istanbul and Ankara Friday to see how Turkey’s judicial system works.

    Tajik prosecutors and judges spent this week in Istanbul and Ankara learning about the Turkish judicial system
    Tajik prosecutors and judges spent this week in Istanbul and Ankara learning about the Turkish judicial system

    The visiting Turkmen delegation was shown by their hosts how judiciary exams are formulated and also given insight into the workings of the Justice Ministry’s data processing department in Ankara.

    The participants visited the Penal and Arrest Institution in Istanbul, as well as the city courthouse and its Institute of Forensic Medicine.

    The visitors also attended a study course on the activities, mandate and management system at the Justice Academy where Turkish judges and public prosecutors are trained.

    The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) organized the trip of Supreme Court and Justice Ministry officials, along with representatives of the General Prosecutor’s Office and Parliament.

    “This working visit helped Turkmenistan representatives to familiarize themselves with the Turkish judicial system as well as with the role of Justice Academy in Turkey,” an OSCE press release on Friday quoted the head of its office in Ashgabat Begoña Piñeiro Costas as saying.

    The Acting President of Justice Academy of Turkey, Sami Sezai Ural, expressed the value of such cooperation.

    “We believe in the importance of exchange of knowledge and experience between counterpart institutions from different countries. I hope this study visit was useful for our Turkmen colleagues,” he said.

    The study visit is the latest activity in a program that saw a workshop on judicial education in Ashgabat in September and a visit to France’s National School of Magistrates last year.